tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65027090726789837972024-03-19T04:47:09.029-04:00The Turk: Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting.The Turk, along with his son, the Little Turk, provide handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it. Established September 2008.
The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.comBlogger719125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-61635210541304676132024-03-01T10:38:00.000-05:002024-03-01T10:38:10.137-05:00The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap G1 <p> </p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr0dMAlbjr182q3J86qAWEUDhpXhh2Wxgtw5DdiB1Jg5kmNftOoJtcwOKoPiMfUZbLlyBcyperSIZzRRS1K6yknUopTyVWI__STji3xoDRz4FOAd6iU_gCEEhWxVKhaXY5yObmoOztRfkS2p9r_HyqZdo0-GBPDsikmUU_iVr68B8gY333YcmqP-vPR24-/s1400/Newgrange00005.1.27.2024.BA_.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1400" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr0dMAlbjr182q3J86qAWEUDhpXhh2Wxgtw5DdiB1Jg5kmNftOoJtcwOKoPiMfUZbLlyBcyperSIZzRRS1K6yknUopTyVWI__STji3xoDRz4FOAd6iU_gCEEhWxVKhaXY5yObmoOztRfkS2p9r_HyqZdo0-GBPDsikmUU_iVr68B8gY333YcmqP-vPR24-/s320/Newgrange00005.1.27.2024.BA_.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Newgrange: Benoit Photo</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Welcome Friends to <a href="https://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/">The Turk Blog</a>, now in our 17th year of writing handicaps and assembling bets. While I primary write about Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting, I still keep my dirt chops up to speed. Thanks to the good people at <a href="http://www.thorofan.com/">The Thorofan</a> who asked me to write for this week's <a href="http://www.thorofan.com/Module/Board/Board">Handicappers Corner</a>, I'm writing about the <b><i>Santa Anita Handicap </i></b>this week. <p></p><p>If you haven't seen, the <a href="https://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-moves-big-cap-card-sunday-due-forecasted-rain">race has been moved to Sunday</a> due to rain concerns Saturday. I'm handicapping as if it's a fast track and will adjust accordingly. You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions <a href="https://www.santaanita.com/racing-information/#racing-full?tab=4">here</a>. </p><p>I'm not a turf writer nor do I pretend to be one. I'm just a guy with a red pen and an opinion on what's on the paper and what I see in the videos. I have no special insights into the industry or the horse racing elites. To me, that makes things simpler. I jump into handicapping when the mood strikes me and I take a hiatus when I'm turned off. I saw a few horse racing fatalities in person last year, grizzly ones, and I needed a break over the winter. I'm glad to see Santa Anita moving the card around to try and avoid running such a prestigious race in bad conditions and the second guessing that would follow any breakdown. </p><p>Let's Get After It!</p><p><i>Santa Anita Handicap</i> aka The Big Cap: 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt</p><p> <iframe height="555" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQFWlS9Wo4V-tQObJ2uq0I4D8ru9xWMikOw7unQg2ac3Yc6InNhoX7JyGAanle7Umw7lYWjuPUZJpRt/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe></p><div><br /></div><div>17 November 2023 CD; <i>ALW $125,000 N1X</i> 1 1/16 Fast Dirt </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Highland Falls </b>(2 back) win as chalk.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eBpjZcslYQU?si=mx_BgXG8Ss5RLuLr" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>13 January 2024 SA; 1 1/16 Fast Dirt <i>San Pasqual G2</i>; <b>Newgrange/Newgate/Mixto</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OeWBifvnedg?si=uv5xxioiV-yW41ft" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>4 November 2023 SA; 1 5/8 Fast Dirt <i>Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance G2;</i> <b>Salesman (Ire) </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CunKacCEyU4?si=cCwOvhUdikLtwa2x" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>I can't say I love this as a betting opportunity; Watch the <i>San Pasqual</i> and tell me if you see any kinks in <b>Newgrange</b> armor? Does he have an extra 1/8 of a mile is the only real question. Last year's 7th with Dettori up had to have been a disappointment and D'Amato immediately cut him back to what looks like a comfort zone at least one panel or two less. I put him as chalk but we won't be betting him there. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Highland Falls</b> ships in from Brad Cox, and the Godolphin runner has done little wrong last two out albeit in sheltered company. He has a class jump to make from Alw/OC races but the <b>Curlin</b> in him bodes well. </div><div><br /></div><div>I only see <b>Newgate </b>and <b>Salesman (Ire) </b>as the only other possible winners. </div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Salesman </b>has been training very sharply at SA for Mandella but this is first back since <i>Breeders' Cup</i> Saturday. 26 career starts for the 7 YO, 24 of which on Turf or Fake Dirt. His widening win over a small field his last time out at an extra 1/8 of a mile was only impressive in how he was running with little pressure towards the wire. Mandella has won this three times so don't discount him.</div><div><br /></div><div>Baffert has two in the race with <b>Reincarnate</b> and <b>Newgate. </b>I'm not sure what instructions he'll give Deltorri, but perhaps he should try something different and use alot of that early speed and see if it carries, but like <b>Newgrange</b>, I question his ability over this distance, going in a sprint just two back in early January. </div><div><br /></div><div>I don't think much of <b>Reincarnate</b>. <b>Mixto</b> has 1 win in 9 dirt starts. Sadler's <b>Subsanador (Arg)</b> is a wild card and a value add to exacta. </div><div><br /></div><div>So what to do with all this? I'm going to make a low risk exacta bet of <b>Highland Farms</b> OVER <b>Salesman/Subsanador</b> and <b>Newgrange, </b>a $2 bet for $6. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm the sort of horse player that doesn't need action bets and believes that the best way to improve ROI is to know which races to avoid. I'm not thrilled with this race and given my druthers, I'd walk away but if forced to bet a $2 Win on <b>Salesman</b> and <b>Subsanador</b> for $4 doesn't bother me. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk Out! </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-62229009287192669292023-10-29T10:49:00.005-04:002023-10-29T10:55:05.071-04:00Post Race Analysis: The Mother Goose. "It's Just Numbers and Patterns"<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjahyphenhyphenWuTukcuEaDJWqca0OIRKfbzP4RAPTCI9mxNb1YC-lccgPYphLgy7Zt4IGRTYY-UZ6zg9K9_ylevDf8qpabhj1V7SYVM_hSPSD7sU9549-bkd-6VuZyWmaeZHS7e0cPKu0mSMpi7g0h8iVvU7P3lbpXRKMgVHkzQsljqeT0CqlG9ERjiJwatRLr_wDv/s1000/1000_F_99613287_kJE5lmFGA2dGTHDJEufQpWtTxmtgAIkl.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="1000" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjahyphenhyphenWuTukcuEaDJWqca0OIRKfbzP4RAPTCI9mxNb1YC-lccgPYphLgy7Zt4IGRTYY-UZ6zg9K9_ylevDf8qpabhj1V7SYVM_hSPSD7sU9549-bkd-6VuZyWmaeZHS7e0cPKu0mSMpi7g0h8iVvU7P3lbpXRKMgVHkzQsljqeT0CqlG9ERjiJwatRLr_wDv/s320/1000_F_99613287_kJE5lmFGA2dGTHDJEufQpWtTxmtgAIkl.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> It's just numbers and pattern recognition. While there are always outliers, if you approach your handicapping from the same place mentally, with the same application of thoughts applied to the runners, if you avoid the greatest traps of all, "the biases", you'll likely predict winners regularly and be successful with your handicap to at least have a fighting chance at assembling a proper bet. <div><br /></div><div>Two different sides of the coin, handicapping and bet construction. I am a top shelf handicapper, especially with my approach to only handicapping in low volumes, but I'm just an OK bettor, much better as a bettor (say that three times) when I don't concern myself with losing. That's a hard thing when you write about the races and your perceived credibility is measured strictly by wins and losses. It took me a long time to realize that the only person who will ever truly know at how good I am at the horse game is me, and once I realized that, I stopped picking chalk to win in these written blog posts and started picking the best risk/reward combinations. I always did that when I was just sitting in the stands and banging out bets, but it's more difficult than you might imagine when you write out the handicap and you are sticking your ass and credibility out there. Anyways, I've been doing this a very long time and my closest readers know my handicappers eye, that's all I really care about. <p></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4N3KQgNX9q9p94EXETpTTmGY4RzA8l_m6wfCYh6HrPDZyldnhWB-j_yGwjDC-95aJcSN-CM9MqHeiAfPpl78g0RbbZLWtRagkpkD3zdRKfWncQCAW-DLlNYLOm09x9kyay_g2EbrB_9aLdcCSHvUK2nQYhxS0feQxCaIGNJ-heqF_DP-c0lOG1Ni4pXu8/s1424/Screenshot%202023-10-29%20100311.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="1424" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4N3KQgNX9q9p94EXETpTTmGY4RzA8l_m6wfCYh6HrPDZyldnhWB-j_yGwjDC-95aJcSN-CM9MqHeiAfPpl78g0RbbZLWtRagkpkD3zdRKfWncQCAW-DLlNYLOm09x9kyay_g2EbrB_9aLdcCSHvUK2nQYhxS0feQxCaIGNJ-heqF_DP-c0lOG1Ni4pXu8/w400-h178/Screenshot%202023-10-29%20100311.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>Bias. Avoid the biases</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span> Authority Bias: Morning Line or TV Personality picks. </span></li><li><span> Bandwagon Effect: Putting aside my fan instincts.</span></li><li><span> Confirmation Bias: Keep an open mind and don't prejudge the outcomes prematurely. </span></li><li><span> Recency: Important, but not everything. Where are these athlete's in their cycle?<br /></span></li></ul><p></p><p><br /></p><p><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR6cW0KKfsSTKPAyUmHOS9cNJwCDImp-7PbDkdNNpVf1o2piPcM_AOT6O4ErzNxyy--TdgL6CzpEe6u/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="520"></iframe></p><p>You'll find the <a href="https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/replays">Race Replay here</a> at NYRA Website, I wasn't able to find a shareable Youtube video yet. </p><p>As I said prerace, <b>Xigera</b> was heavy chalk and I predicted 5 out of 10 times he would win this race. The real key is always identifying horses that can run better than their odds and horses that don't deserve their short odds. I already identified that <b>Xigera</b> deserved short odds, but look at <b>Defining Purpose</b>, fourth down the tote board at $7.2-$1 odds. I thought she could match <b>Xigera</b> early (she did) I thought she could be better late (she couldn't). Still, a simple $1 Exacta Box of these two returned $8.20 on a $2 investment. That's how you make money better favorites in the Exacta. </p><p>If you boxed my top four in the Superfecta a $1 bet for $24 returned $63.50. It ultimately comes down to the handicapper's secret weapon, the Fair Odds table. I didn't win these bets, I would have never placed these bets, but the handicap and the analysis pointed to these selections and this race is a classic "don't overthink it" example. <b>Undervalued Asset</b> was early speed and hadn't been past 6.5f. <b>Foggy Night </b>was slow overall but had early speed. <b>Julia Shining</b> has the flashy pedigree but doesn't know what she is, nor does <b>Peak Popularity</b>. You see these sorts of patterns every week. A handicapper must learn to understand why a horse is entered into the particular race and what the plan is for that horse by the connections. </p><p><b>Xigera</b>, if she comes back as a 4 YO, will be fun to watch. Everyone else, what is the plan?</p><p> It's all numbers friends, Turk Out!</p></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-44907759325340815022023-10-27T08:41:00.003-04:002023-10-27T08:41:47.169-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Mother Goose at Aqueduct (It's not Belmont!)<p> </p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMMau1qC1TfCbsExigAmNKnN2kKjZCfswIOBlTjvX9XuqItaC4YF_BrdbIzfUqN7TZKXYvRzA9r0ySW0af2GGAh67d9rqy5F4bdq6RIFG9csVAHtyFrJO7jf6xUM2fnb7kavyfDMWrVJWaGrVgxAypINUIF3CYX9yUVceN20T8tCbP7_vXJ0wX1cA6ypF_/s800/Xigera_2023-Tepin_Coady-Photography-7-1-2023-8-37-42-PM%20(1).jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="800" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMMau1qC1TfCbsExigAmNKnN2kKjZCfswIOBlTjvX9XuqItaC4YF_BrdbIzfUqN7TZKXYvRzA9r0ySW0af2GGAh67d9rqy5F4bdq6RIFG9csVAHtyFrJO7jf6xUM2fnb7kavyfDMWrVJWaGrVgxAypINUIF3CYX9yUVceN20T8tCbP7_vXJ0wX1cA6ypF_/w400-h291/Xigera_2023-Tepin_Coady-Photography-7-1-2023-8-37-42-PM%20(1).jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Xigera</b>: Photo credit Coady Photography (thank you)</td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome friends to The Turk Blog. I'd like to thank the good people of <a href="http://www.thorofan.com/Module/Board/Board">The Thorofan </a>for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today. <div><br /></div><div>I've been on a Handicappers Holiday since late August. Just like the horses need to go the the farm and freshen up, I find that my handicapping is better when I take some time away. I've already started <i>Breeders' Cup</i> video preparation so this weekend is a good time for me to start looking at past performances again, and <i>The Mother Goose</i> at Belmont at the Big A is a good handicapping challenge for me. Why? These runners, most of who are <i>Breeders' Cup</i> eligible, most likely didn't peak well enough to earn a place on World Championship weekend. It doesn't mean they are bad horses, it's just that their current condition wasn't where it needed to be in some of the key races in August, September and early October. I count five graded stakes win amongst the seven horses, a G1, a G2 and three G3. There is a lot to prove from the classiest of runners here, yes I'm looking at the $435,000 purchase of <b>Peak Popularity</b>, the $625,000 <b>Occult</b>, the $225,000 <b>Julia Shining</b> and the $190,000 <b>Xigera</b>. I also think it's ok at this time of the year to start and second guess the tactics of horses having underwhelming seasons who are in the barns of the mega trainers. Two Browns and a Pletcher here that fit that description, and I think it's fair game to question the choices made in their three year old campaigns. I'm of the mind that owners should not be so differential to the Big Barns and get some more personalized attention with smaller outfits, but I'm just a handicapper and a fan of this game for the better part of 40 years, what do I know. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyways, my other rule as a handicapper is to not worry about what runners aren't here, or what the field's overall quality is, just handicap what's on the paper and what you see in the video. Let's get after it!</div><div><p>The <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+ozone+park+queens+ny&rlz=1C1ONGR_enUS999US999&oq=Weather+Ozone+Park+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgCEAAYgAQyCggAEEUYFhgeGDkyBwgBEAAYgAQyBwgCEAAYgAQyBwgDEAAYgAQyBwgEEAAYgAQyCAgFEAAYFhgeMggIBhAAGBYYHjIICAcQABgWGB4yCAgIEAAYFhgeMggICRAAGBYYHtIBCTExODgzajFqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">weather should be beautiful </a>and I'd expect the track to be fast, but check <a href="https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/scratches-changes">here </a>for scratches, changes and track condition. </p><p>Let's start with video of the runner's last starts. </p><p><i>The Cotillin</i> G1: 1 1/16 miles over slop at PARX; 23 September 2023; <b>Foggy Night</b>/1, <b>Occul</b>t/5, <b>Defining Purpose</b>/7 </p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dEPNMmXf4w0?si=Bkd3HPJAdAFD5ncE" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><i>Seneca Overnight </i>Race 9 23 September 2023: 1 1/16 on Fast Dirt</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vRtZs2yO5bw?si=zFwpEJ0JPrxk28lW&start=862" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><i>Allowance $115K N1X</i>; SAR 1 1/4 miles off turf sloppy dirt: <b>Peak Popularity</b>/2</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FpJ9S5w8Kuc?si=6GNO5fDBPB2SozHg&start=15161" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><i>The Alabama</i> G1; SAR 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt; <b>Julia Shining</b>/3 <b>Defining Purpose</b>/7</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8DUkto8TrDA?si=Kdw-fFGfbvhtWBIn&start=15161" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><i>The Gallant Bloom</i> G2: BEL Big A; 1 October 2023 6.5F Fast Dirt; <b>Undervalued Asset</b>/4</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fztfmQ1QpLY?si=KGRNk52iKZ9uqu63&start=15161" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><br /></p></div><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQweQTgVF2c0_CBqaU-9v6zUb1rM9QUvZsxpLQJtOaoTgQsEAFiPrFEYyy_UuUNJfWFY2eF-F7quGKO/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="540"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>I don't think this was an overly difficult field to handicap on paper, but the video was an exercise in trying to see potential that hasn't translated into performance. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Xigera</b> is the most impressive to me. In a recent interview with the NYRA press, trainer Bauer said "...we made sure the work two out (from the Breeders' Cup) was a good one and we were still trying to decide if we were going to fly out to California. We talked in circles about it and decided that maybe the best thing at the moment would be to get her a graded black type win, if we can." That seems like a logical and reasonable approach and she comes in with by far the most impressive last race out. Exceptional early speed, this versatile Turf and Dirt runner comes to NY after training up exceptionally well. Heavy chalk. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Defining Purpose</b> cannot be overlooked. A good place at 14-1 odds in<i> The Alabama</i> before a flat <i>Cotillion</i> in the slop at Parx last time out and a Grade 1 winner at 20-1 at KEE and a Grade 3 winner in the<i> Indiana Oaks</i>. McPeek/Alvarado are not a very successful pairing. Will keep pace early and possibly be better late. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Occult</b> is a bit of a wild card. Very classy, Brown/I. Ortiz combo sizzles, but just hasn't found her defining moment as of yet. Destroyed a pretty weak <i>Monmouth Oaks</i> field for a Grade 3 win at $1.40-1 odds. Rallied, but didn't seem to ever really stretch in the slop of the <i>Cotillion</i>. Went off at 27-1 in the <i>Acorn </i>at Belmont and finished a so-so Place to <b>Pretty Mischievous</b>. What do I know, but maybe a different barn than Brown's would be a better place for her. Dangerous, but hard to depend on the danger. </div><div><br /></div><div>I have similar thoughts on <b>Julia Shining</b>: I am no pedigree expert but the daughter of <b>Curlin</b> and <a href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/267701/dreaming-of-julia-named-2022-broodmare-of-the-year">Dreaming of Julia </a> is having what can only be described as a disastrous 3 YO campaign after winning a Grade 2 at Aqueduct in the slop last December. Two Place finishes, a freshening up and a terrible 57 lengths back beat down at $5.30-1 odds in the <i>Alabama</i>. The works have been steady since mid September and Castellano gets the mount from Saez. Dart throw as to which filly shows up.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Undervalued Asset</b> is another Brown runner and makes the sprint to route jump, stretching out from the 6.5 f of her last race. I'm not sure why she hasn't run past 8f yet, but what do I know, especially with 1 win in 6 tries this year and 3 Place finishes where she was moving forward at the wire. </div><div><br /></div><div>So what do I do with all this? I like <b>Xigera</b> a lot and toyed with making her shorter than 7-5 (42%) in my fair odds chart. I also have no interest in betting her if her odds shorten from her Morning Line of 6-5. I'm thinking something along the lines of $2 Exacta 7-5-3-4 OVER 6 for $8. I like the risk/reward of putting the heavy chalk in the Place spot but I think if this race is run ten times she wins maybe 5 times and the Bauer team gets rewarded for their patient approach. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends! Turk Out</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-24955160565477591272023-08-26T11:43:00.005-04:002023-08-26T12:34:37.721-04:00The Nomination Is In: The G1(T) Sword Dancer and the G1 Travers Stakes<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEUu4upyPyQ9aM1suNVux_n_A8etdaJgyd4X-1v_sj2joaLqURvJKdrPo4fnl3kz6MUE_TFnkM6tw8eG6uQ_IznbeTE7sGxKoUyLj7lybG8SrDRRsrjmawts30VizIFwG7KUgp3JISrSVv-dqqN3kZna1G-ppHFoHdl1jw297o-4zSqP-zGI1_PvShIlwE/s604/three%20generations%20of%20Turks%20at%202007%20Travers%20Stakes.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="453" data-original-width="604" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEUu4upyPyQ9aM1suNVux_n_A8etdaJgyd4X-1v_sj2joaLqURvJKdrPo4fnl3kz6MUE_TFnkM6tw8eG6uQ_IznbeTE7sGxKoUyLj7lybG8SrDRRsrjmawts30VizIFwG7KUgp3JISrSVv-dqqN3kZna1G-ppHFoHdl1jw297o-4zSqP-zGI1_PvShIlwE/s320/three%20generations%20of%20Turks%20at%202007%20Travers%20Stakes.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Three Generations of Turk: 2007</td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction. I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type. We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases. I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different. It's days like <i>Travers</i> Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks. Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless. I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.<p></p><p>If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon. While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 <i>Travers</i> and he blindly picked <b>Grasshopper</b> who nearly upset the <i>Kentucky Derby</i> champ, <b>Street Sense</b>, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards <i>Breeders' Cup</i>. The circle of life in a horse players year.</p><p>I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us. I think about my Dad every time I'm there. My last visit with my father was <i> Alabama </i>Weekend in 2013, ten years ago. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one. </p><p>Anyways, let's get after this! The Dirt Track is listed as Muddy Currently and the Inner Turf as Good. <a href="https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/scratches-changes">Stay tuned here for Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions</a>. So far no scratches in 11 or 12. </p><p>First up, the 7 horse <i>Sword Dancer</i>. </p><p><i>The Bowling Green </i>G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PdBqUVau0QQ?si=NPpixJWMpzA0oKbi" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p>Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so <b>Channel Maker's</b> game plan will most likely mirror the <i>Bowling Green</i>. I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on <b>Stone Age (Ire).</b></p><p>Where will pressure on<b> Channel Maker </b>come from? </p><p>Watch <b>Pioneering Spirit</b> open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR. The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's. 6 of 7 ITM in 2023. 4 Wins in 6 turf starts. </p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3xSHBzObgbM?si=1jNSgutBzM7vaeGV&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Bolshoi Ballet (Ire)</b> has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question. Feels more like step one of a Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien. 25 months since last win. </div><div><br /></div><div>The beforementioned <b>Stone Age (Ire) </b>come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February. Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%. Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff. His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers. I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over <b>Bolshoi Ballet</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQRGTSInceX-h1PdoB6DzFG8aJi91-TrIqfhyBgnnomRYaUtfW-OoAs89-9NEeceh1U1z6sECizQV0T/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="540"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on <b>Stone Age (Ire)</b>. He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time. I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 <b>Pioneering Spirit</b>, <b>Bolshoi Ballet </b>and <b>Soldier Rising </b>and <b>Stone Age </b>for $12. <b> </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>And in<b> </b><i>The Travers</i><b>: </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><i>The Jim Dandy</i><b> </b>G2<b>; </b>1 1/8<b> </b>miles<b> </b>over sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July. <b> </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZjLDcFlrHNM?si=LuM5ldqbLiOYnLTI&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>The Belmont Stakes </i>G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023</div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jy8HWDcdQfg?si=AaoFxgBkrJxhHhp3&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>The Haskell</i> G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023</div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zSJpeiF2sow?si=2RuBtZWn7X4G1xmW&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>The Preakness Stakes</i> G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023</div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Cll9olsJxig?si=Wyog5Bat3704A39E&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Matt Winn </i>G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP. 11 June 2023</div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/E6hHUK8u2ic?si=vk3uA3FWICObms_1&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>The Curlin Stakes </i>$130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.</div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7353bvWvwHY?si=36jzmVMIxum8vlmg&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQZU1_H5z5kpHWkcaIdt2Mjz4XJ9KOjepBK6FDpe--CFnL3ROEZzJY8VpqwbErESKUjb2Gei8UwnOgy/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="540"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Similar to <i>The Sword Dancer</i>, <b>Forte</b> gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than <b>Stone Age's</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div>I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling. I'm going assume the <a href="https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/64997a6d3e3c245c8c8a5e9734927e9f22c480e61016abed42119055b21270362167587909411173e867242d08b19a97">track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon</a>. There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of <b>Mage</b> and <b>Scotland</b>. I'm tossing both from my exacta pool. My value choice is <b>Disarm</b>. Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price. </div><div><br /></div><div>$1 Exacta: 6-2-5-1 for $12. Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk Out. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again. </div><div><br /></div><div>2007 <i>Travers Stakes</i></div><div><br /></div><div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/opkYXNMKFwQ?si=0HD2a8wQN5Ywzq_-&start=410" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-88192120063549068682023-08-19T14:40:00.007-04:002023-08-19T14:40:46.836-04:00The Nomination Is In: The King Edward G2 at Woodbine<div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAycmVgQP9ryqI6ZV8jnv6RoCODtEfU76kph9TESS3p1r7sGpZuVo97L1mAoE2wm_MpaIP8tY9KEL8XosD5xaY7M8CkajRpbrqQGPSiDCZR8WLguhT-dYN-6NW1XWxg0uI7Fcpc1hjiAuQxfWeHgizPJyAAIevcjFWG9Wnmh4pNJs3cxJgbehhND6PXj1Q/s495/treason.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="495" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAycmVgQP9ryqI6ZV8jnv6RoCODtEfU76kph9TESS3p1r7sGpZuVo97L1mAoE2wm_MpaIP8tY9KEL8XosD5xaY7M8CkajRpbrqQGPSiDCZR8WLguhT-dYN-6NW1XWxg0uI7Fcpc1hjiAuQxfWeHgizPJyAAIevcjFWG9Wnmh4pNJs3cxJgbehhND6PXj1Q/w306-h193/treason.jpg" width="306" /></a> Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet construction. Today's focus is on Woodbine's <i>The King Edward</i> Grade 2. How does the Turk pick which races he plans to handicap? I think one of my strengths as a handicapper is my experience handicapping all tracks, ages, surfaces, sexes, distances and class over decades, but also my refinement of my turf racing eye. You'll find me handicapping most weekends 8-10 furlong races with fields of at least 8. That's what makes the blogging interesting. I generally use the <a href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred-racing/stakes-calendar?surfaces=T&sortOrder=">Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar </a>to help me understand what's in the Conditions Book for the particular weekend and then I use the tracks website to look at entries before I shell out money for a <a href="https://www.drf.com/formulator">DRF Formulator Past Performance</a> card. I've used many PP's over the years but I enjoy Formulator and I believe in following a consistent approach to every handicap. I've gone horizontal more this summer than I have in some time. I like to anchor P4's to solid graded stakes on the turf.</div><br /><div><br /></div><div>So, that's it, no great mystery to the why's or the where's I handicap. I do have favorite tracks, and Kentucky Downs has really become a favorite track of mine over past several years. I just find it compelling, and for a grass junkie, it checks all the boxes.<br /><div><p><br /></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwqNYpLUx71gwPouY_N4k3flZbOut9Om3ZjggPHfQpmbVdtepBOvIr0a5tiSk80b_Bt7mu5K55wPdmEZjZADr0vdOmrT0iI6jQ-D6iV0Z0DfQHp5mB7yYDxqSN9rcqW1XSODQjDLtZamvSV0nIyfGsX3GQjDBNJ8uSSTylrLyN7jAcRMRVmOaLlPtaotol" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="775" data-original-width="2179" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwqNYpLUx71gwPouY_N4k3flZbOut9Om3ZjggPHfQpmbVdtepBOvIr0a5tiSk80b_Bt7mu5K55wPdmEZjZADr0vdOmrT0iI6jQ-D6iV0Z0DfQHp5mB7yYDxqSN9rcqW1XSODQjDLtZamvSV0nIyfGsX3GQjDBNJ8uSSTylrLyN7jAcRMRVmOaLlPtaotol=w512-h198" width="512" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Let's get after it! <p></p><p><iframe height="590" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQIEJYNxLF0Y8JvYmBaEROJZXqMSAZk48LjG9sLLwM15HK-nC49G3NGb0AwaON-cSSH2WC97bjM4mZI/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="540"></iframe></p></div></div><div><br /></div><div>I'm on a bit of a time crunch today so I'm just going to jump right to it: I see <b>Treason</b>, <b>War Bomber</b> and <b>Shirl's Speight </b>as the class of the field with primarily the best late turns of foot and class. </div><div><br /></div><div>While I don't think he's the best, this is gambling: I'm going to wheel <b>War Bomber</b> OVER <b>Treason</b>, <b>Shirl's Speight</b>, <b>Pao Alto</b> and <b>Lucky Score</b>, a $2 Exacta for $8. Nothing complicated. I liked <b>War Bomber </b>leaving <i>The Connaught Cup</i> at 7f a month ago, and with a better trip and more grass I like him even better. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>The Connaught Cup</i> G2: 23 July 2023 Race 8 WO. My <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-nomination-is-in-connaught-cup-g2.html">handicap link is here</a>:</div><div><br /></div><div> <iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ib_FiQngY6w" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe> </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Treason</b> cuts back 1 panel from his Place effort in early July on Canada Day in the <i>Dominion Day</i> G3. Watch <b>War Bomber</b> get dusted, now two efforts back from today. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div> <iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AMGmdex7Z-8" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe> </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div> Have fun friends, Turk Out.</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-69778145237692429642023-08-12T14:57:00.000-04:002023-08-12T14:57:04.317-04:00The Nomination Is In: Colonial Downs Turf Festival featuring the "Arlington" Million <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZGKfZBo80-reBXFpObBCvK_xXgSwT9A_mpcjn1o5EdIjiyMldqbVSvk7U86ZWXLeynxsxKbptJUHHKoUTNRUxAvuoddl5B7fFNLRcwdmQr_sGZRU0KYRAM20O8F5VLvZK7czLZxD9hymSyps-_Xrh0rpRjzzHEfZ2UGjHiC_IHkd_uAjcrb6rvoX_jz-j/s4027/IMG_5759.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1374" data-original-width="4027" height="109" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZGKfZBo80-reBXFpObBCvK_xXgSwT9A_mpcjn1o5EdIjiyMldqbVSvk7U86ZWXLeynxsxKbptJUHHKoUTNRUxAvuoddl5B7fFNLRcwdmQr_sGZRU0KYRAM20O8F5VLvZK7czLZxD9hymSyps-_Xrh0rpRjzzHEfZ2UGjHiC_IHkd_uAjcrb6rvoX_jz-j/s320/IMG_5759.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons. My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting. <p></p><p>The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep. I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/visuals/ct-arlington-park-race-track-1985-fire-photos-20150814-photogallery.html">night of the fire on 31 July 1985</a>. I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies. Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival. It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million. I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies. I don't blame the Bears, but <a href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/235461/cdi-opts-not-to-apply-for-arlington-casino-license">CDI is not innocent</a>: They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan. </p><p>I don't believe in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/bud-light-boycott.html">organized boycotts</a>, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt? Blue collar employees, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yimH3R1RG3M">while the boss man sips champagne</a>. I considered never playing a race called "<i>Arlington Million</i>", but who does that hurt? No one but me. I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems. They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure. It's symbiotic: How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now. <a href="https://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=2">According to Jockey Club</a>, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001. That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes. How many <b>Secretariat's</b> or <b>Zenyatta's </b>were not born over the past 22 years? Don't think about it.</p><p>That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected. As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis, you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data. Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until <i>Breeders' Cup</i> final prep time. <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0-MCboHmaiKCcvbSSrz-TKN_pdVxxdwOHeA6VMCzZ-O0tcWmyPGHkSONwgRP047js4GHxKrhrrn-NB10J7GK10xtf1LMeVaPBTGV7SZqsmj5LDy1mEwv5uJMdHUCeacVsTFtl_-nZn9I7etFAk63LBRmXzq2YeD4pmpDHyie0JwXVQNlEbyoX5vfqmWO9/s960/IMG_5741.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="960" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0-MCboHmaiKCcvbSSrz-TKN_pdVxxdwOHeA6VMCzZ-O0tcWmyPGHkSONwgRP047js4GHxKrhrrn-NB10J7GK10xtf1LMeVaPBTGV7SZqsmj5LDy1mEwv5uJMdHUCeacVsTFtl_-nZn9I7etFAk63LBRmXzq2YeD4pmpDHyie0JwXVQNlEbyoX5vfqmWO9/s320/IMG_5741.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>I'd be remiss to not talk about <b><a href="https://www.nytbreeders.org/news/2023/08/05/maple-leaf-mel-tragedy-felt-by-all/">Maple Leaf Mel</a></b> today. I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that <b>Maple Leaf Mel</b> would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated <b>Maple Leaf Mel</b> made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in <i>The Test</i>, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells. The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares. I'm glad <b>Maple Leaf Mel</b> was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses. Rest in Peace <b>Maple Leaf Mel</b>. <p></p><p>Ok, lets get after this!</p><p>You'll find <a href="https://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesCNL-USA.html#sthash.C2oAjqZR.dpbs">Scratches and Changes here as well as Turf Condition</a> which I think will be Firm. </p><iframe height="600" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRzkDL5ty8Pg2sj5RDeTEbalcGBM5DIjD47-3IHbK8CkSZZ9L24jBCbI51o7DWwFWyEMeixHb8rOqpt/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="540"></iframe><div><br /></div><div> It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race. Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race. Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Catnip</b> and <b>Adhamo (Ire) </b>have my top spots. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Catnip</b> is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023. Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time. It's a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO, but I'm intrigued and the price should be right. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Catnip </b>as a beaten Favorite on <i>Haskell</i> Day, the 1 3/8ths <i>United Nations </i>G1</div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/R8Yi0oeC-LM" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Adhamo (IRE)</b> goes for the first time since October 2022. Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga. </div><div><br /></div><div>Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get. My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them. This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Set Piece (GB) </b>has to me the best late speed of the field. Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on <i>Stephen Foster</i> Day. At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred. Have to respect. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WSj-OhJMyEg" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Master Piece (Chi)</b>, now 7 YO, trained by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf 1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July. 1 win in last 8 starts. 10 of 22 in exactas over grass. Solid late speed. Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today. </div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WdzIPzaxvd4?start=4231" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Chad Brown's <b>Rockemperor </b>comes in off of a dog of a classic distance <i>Manhattan </i>on <i>Belmont </i>Day. In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see <b>Strong Quality</b> lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end. Both <b>Strong Quality</b> and <b>Rockemperor </b>aren't in the frame when <b>Up to the Mark</b> blew the doors off this one. I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material. </div><div><br /></div><div> </div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SHvzdbEeiQE?start=4231" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Never Explain,</b> the $475,000 KEE sale son of <b>Street Sense </b>is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S. 7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf <i>Bowling Green</i> at SAR on 30 July. The ageless <b>Channel Maker </b>had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off. </div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PdBqUVau0QQ?start=4231" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>What am I doing with this? A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20. I'm including my top six with exception of <b>Rockemperor</b>, at my own peril. I'm tempted to <b>Catnip</b> in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return. That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.</div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk Out!</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-33576514169584380152023-08-03T19:56:00.005-04:002023-08-05T15:36:58.031-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiICWjBHR5RUbpBi0o9vX8I6E_WXesptsTPwOIxG5jN6r3zBABLxfX-FSTg4ch7oE89kYxpe87BYVVPQGflhX3X-kOcHh1hgd9hogyZURaAm7ZTDdKahrtQm3fqr0J4xMPrrCTQOIFefPKpJXtFcV5CTrXKuj5HlC0Bit_7PnlJ2EBzJnQg4u-ZX1DnZxyi/s810/chargeit_suburban_AC_23_810x430.fd17029c1f6ff427ac116a1ee987222b.png" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="430" data-original-width="810" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiICWjBHR5RUbpBi0o9vX8I6E_WXesptsTPwOIxG5jN6r3zBABLxfX-FSTg4ch7oE89kYxpe87BYVVPQGflhX3X-kOcHh1hgd9hogyZURaAm7ZTDdKahrtQm3fqr0J4xMPrrCTQOIFefPKpJXtFcV5CTrXKuj5HlC0Bit_7PnlJ2EBzJnQg4u-ZX1DnZxyi/s320/chargeit_suburban_AC_23_810x430.fd17029c1f6ff427ac116a1ee987222b.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Charge It: Adam Coglianese Photo (Thanks)</span></td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome Friends to <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/">The Turk Blog</a>. I'd like to thank the good people of <a href="http://www.thorofan.com/">The Thorofan</a> for allowing me to share my thoughts on this race with you today. The Turk is in the Spa! Yes, for the first time since before COVID, I'm returning to Saratoga. I lived in Saratoga in 1986 while I was training to operate Nuclear Reactors for the US Navy. It was the 1986 meet where this casual horse racing fan from my childhood became a closet race fan before embracing my red ink pen and nerdy handicapper persona after leaving the Navy. Ironically I was stationed onboard the USS Louisville, SSN-24, Best of the Breed. Louisville, with myself onboard, fired some of the first missiles on the opening night of Operation Desert Storm. I digress, but it is funny the coincidences of life. <p></p><p>The 1986 Whitney was won by <b>Lady's Secret</b>, the first filly since the 40's to win. Some of my favorite horses since I became a full fledged fan of the game in the late 80's have won this race: <b>Commentator </b>in 2005 and 2008,<b> Lawyer Ron </b>in 2007, <b>Tizway</b> in 201, but 2010's <b>Blame</b> has me thinking about the <i>Breeders' Cup Classic</i> and an unbeatable <b>Zenyatta</b>, America's favorite, beloved. <b>Cody's Wish</b> is on a <b>Zenyatta</b> like roll right now with the American public, I can't help but think could he be meeting his <b>Blame</b> today? I was there watching in disbelief that <b>Zenyatta</b>, bad start and all, did not catch <b>Blame</b> that cold night in Churchill Downs. Does this happen to me again? Life is funny with the parallels and coincidences. <br /></p><p>I know as a gambler, that will be my intention, to bet against him. I hope he proves me wrong, but this is a horse race investment and I'm thinking about high risk-high reward. Let's get it on!</p><p>I'm expecting Fast Dirt. The Weather is inclement for a few hours Friday but <a href="https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Saratoga+Springs+NY?canonicalCityId=98099a63af651704fbcda859352242fc1b683486d88fa09bb2aaf4c37cc7484d">Saturday looks good</a>. It's a small field, six horses, so watch for <a href="https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/scratches-changes">scratches and changes</a> here. </p><p>Just a few relevant videos with <i>The Met Mile</i> the most relevant. </p><p>8 July 2023: BEL; <i>Suburban</i> G2; 1 1/4 Mile Fast Dirt</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TRLkHa76FWw" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p>10 June 2023: BEL; <i>Met Mile</i> G1; 1 Mile Fast Dirt</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Mfa211piwmU" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p>8 July 2023; PrM; <i>Cornhusker Handicap </i>G3; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Dk3T9oetgbk" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p>1 July 2023; EIP; <i>Stephen Foster </i>G1; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jYbjwxqukqs" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><br /></p><p><i>Whitney</i> G1; 1 1/8 Miles</p><iframe height="500" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT2qKFWZKgmAMA0-jrUi0xVoDjv-ckOGY7bCX8pnuMqvfIXt49r3KaXuPZ4hB1Y6AkWHkxTTJzQA1J4/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Let's take a closer look at my handicapping analysis.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /><iframe height="850" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSp-GFb1_tQxCoNtHypFeZO5qqOhWwXGd5J7MZZ1U1O-69eXXor2YVfXF2uzHxrUhj7zEWIfOLNqBjH/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>There are 4 wins in 25 lifetime starts at this distance!</div><div><br /></div><div>It's been a very long time since I had a horse in my fair line at 50% odds to win. <b>Cody's Wish</b> morning line is something like 1-2 and I have to think this horse will be the post time favorite. Even at 66% win odds, there is still a 33% chance he loses. As a gambler, with this type of underlay, and I think it's fair to call any horse at 1-2 an underlay going a distance they have never won at, and I want to take a swing at beating him. </div><div><br /></div><div>How I assemble my exacta? Sitting here in Western New York on Thursday Night I'm contemplating wheeling <b>Charge It</b> OVER <b>White Abarrio</b>, <b>Zandon</b> and <b>Cody's Wish</b>, a $2 bet for $6. For real value, I think I should go <b>Charge It</b> OVER the field, a $2 Bet for $10 and hope beyond hope that <b>Giant Game</b> or <b>Last Samurai Place. I'm not emotional about Charge It and quote frankly, I could swap </b>Charge It for <b>White Abarrio</b> who I think is improving. This is gambling, not an exercise in picking the best horses. Always remember that and always try to exploit these feel good moments when betting dollars surge towards a fan favorite. Yes, 7 out of 10 races, <b>Cody's Wish </b>walks away with this, but I just need Saturday to be one of the 3 of 10. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends. Turk will be in the Clubhouse Section K with a bunch of <a href="https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1ONGR_enUS999US999&sxsrf=AB5stBgYZLNxUwGN6MuNVu8crjbBMjGtmQ:1691106856490&q=old+people+in+wheelchairs+playing+cards&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwja_tT718GAAxUTjYkEHQgECT0Q0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1664&bih=985&dpr=1.5#imgrc=LAysQBjFvlQn3M">rowdy degenerate gamblers</a>, I hope to see some of you there.</div><div><br /></div><div>Turk Out!</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-10763503266789726092023-07-29T22:13:00.005-04:002023-07-29T22:24:57.027-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Eddie Reed Grade 2<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiszwJwAYownC8CHV86cVswTRGX2zRQRYp-hzE7gATHTDvXwhAkMGbrlZoopNJzRkfvckmfMiQQMkePhokXec_qeCZ3jCm-A4cIkS279bifRF7TTJXnRT7ei5RG6aTqVGqvsxca-5XWvbdqGBMSuzWL9EBzxpF50IsgzC6x7ROapum5T9Bq-3ftie72byBl/s1500/Del-Mar-horse-racing-season-1500x609.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="609" data-original-width="1500" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiszwJwAYownC8CHV86cVswTRGX2zRQRYp-hzE7gATHTDvXwhAkMGbrlZoopNJzRkfvckmfMiQQMkePhokXec_qeCZ3jCm-A4cIkS279bifRF7TTJXnRT7ei5RG6aTqVGqvsxca-5XWvbdqGBMSuzWL9EBzxpF50IsgzC6x7ROapum5T9Bq-3ftie72byBl/s320/Del-Mar-horse-racing-season-1500x609.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on older horses running over a route of grass, with exacta bet constructions. I choose not to play a rather soggy day our East, and while I was interested in <i>The Bowling Green</i> at Saratoga, my concern for the turf conditions made up my mind for me. Del Mar's <i>Eddie Reed </i>G2 is an interesting nine horse field. My first time through the PP's and I didn't have a single horse that I thought deserved chalk or even a Turk rating of A. 700 plus handicaps blogged over 15 years and I don't remember a Grade 2 I was this torn on. It's not that the field is bereft of good horses, and in fact Turk favorites <b>Masteroffoxhounds</b> and <b>Dicey Mo Chara</b> are in the field, just little excited me about current form of any of the runners. We'll get to that. I also don't want to sound like I'm complaining in any way, this is what I like: Big Field, Light Chalk, Chaos. All those things can equal big rewards. <br /><p></p><p>Experience helps. I approach every race with the same general mindset and I handicap in a very consistent manner. A review of Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Recency, J/T stats, Track, Surface and Pace. My red ink squiggles mean something to me, may not mean anything to you, but that's fine. I never look at Morning Lines before settling on my handicap. I found that they biased me, especially in my published handicaps. I've matured as a handicapper to never let someone else's opinion to influence me. I've been handicapping for over 35 years, I'm at the peak of my game, and it's this mindset that helps me identify underlays and overlays. The problem with bet construction this far in advance of the race is the lack of live odds to fine tune my thinking. I do that, I'm just sensitive to changing my bets radically from what I blog. A bald, middle aged nerd is nothing without credibility. </p><p>Speaking of Saratoga, Turk will be in the (club)house next Saturday. It's been a loonnng time. Let's get after it.</p><p><i>The Eddie Reed</i> G2; 1 1/8 Miles over Turf for 3 YO and Up.</p><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTuE8TGAhPn331sLtC8qk8pDKOAvANU5qh87MAL1hCa5SvBEMmkQ1crp1HuZlhuKxyu6ih3baaa5Y_d/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Many runners here enter off The G1 <i>Shoemaker Mile</i> at Santa Anita 2 months earlier. <i> </i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Cxny7TVHtZA" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Mackinnon</b> last time out a beaten 4th at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf OC $80K 3 BEL 4 July.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/59S8lGRAd-I" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Dicey Mo Chara</b>, <b>Masterofforhounds</b> and <b>Gold Phoenix</b> ran in a pace slog <i>Charles Whittingham</i> G2 at 1 1./4 Miles at Santa Anita 8 April 2023. <b>Gold Phoenix</b> came back 29 May in the <i>Shoemaker Mile</i> and ran poorly cutting back two panels. <b> Dicey Mo Chara </b>has run back twice, running three graded stakes in a 6 week period. <b>Masteroffoxhounds</b> took a break to freshen and has been working sharply for D'Amato since late June. </div><div><br /></div><div>There was a time last year when I thought<b> Count Again</b> at 7 YO was the best Turf Miler in the US. First race since last year's <i>Shoemaker Mile</i>. What form? Who knows what the 8 YO has left. Trainer D'Amato has taken 100 horses over the past year back from a +180 day layoff and has won 21 times. </div><div><br /></div><div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IVFuY4cAg_4" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>D'Amato has four going in this race. Does anyone think that's healthy for racing? </div><div><br /></div><div>So what top do with this?</div><div><br /></div><div>I'm going to $2 Exacta wheel <b>Mackinnon</b> OVER <b>Dicey Mo Chara</b>, <b>Masteroffoxhounds</b>, <b>Cabo Spirit</b>, <b>Count Again </b>and possibly <b>Handy Dandy</b> or <b>Balnikhov, </b>either a $10 or $12 dollar bet that should pop a good payout. It's far from an iron pipe lock, but this is gambling. I like Doug O'Neill running the 4 YO son of <b>American Pharoah </b>back in under four weeks for his 2nd off a long layoff. I like his early speed and I think returning to firm turf may expose a new level of top speed at the end. Speculative. </div><div><br /></div><div>A $2 Win bet on <b>Handy Dandy</b> isn't out the question either. 5 of 6 Win/Place at Del Mar, 8 of 13 W/P over Turf. Running back 3 weeks after a solid Allowance Mile win. Value. </div><div><br /></div><div>Turk Out!</div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk Out.</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-12397244169192928442023-07-23T13:31:00.001-04:002023-07-23T13:31:08.692-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Connaught Cup G2 at Woodbine<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTIgRiF_bMwEvOZ3Hd0JvDA58YCAYqskRf6yGUHwt6JdUe9npEi_IjQE05iCLMEyiV1YEbidb2adFxDapxjpw0XHsWlK1g6LWZBwjpRMWsyrvoGTjauLuseVNT1AtkJJSb8kcYl2OvGoL9Jhm2bJqVB5LtGcFaTvmDC2o1yYwCUSc8dtRAlCowZX7OyB5u/s1025/Woodbine_Racetrack.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1025" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTIgRiF_bMwEvOZ3Hd0JvDA58YCAYqskRf6yGUHwt6JdUe9npEi_IjQE05iCLMEyiV1YEbidb2adFxDapxjpw0XHsWlK1g6LWZBwjpRMWsyrvoGTjauLuseVNT1AtkJJSb8kcYl2OvGoL9Jhm2bJqVB5LtGcFaTvmDC2o1yYwCUSc8dtRAlCowZX7OyB5u/s320/Woodbine_Racetrack.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. I've been a handicapper since 1986 and a Horse Racing Blogger since 2008 with a general specialization of older horses running across a route of grass with exacta bet constructions. I've been flexing my turf sprint chops over the last few weeks for a change of pace as I like to make sure I don't ignore my handicapping on these sort of races. I've been handicapping for a long time, and my approach to how I analyze a race has been refined over a long period of time. My influences are pretty standard for handicappers of my generation: Tom Ainslie, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz. My own derivative method is to break down these races for Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Form and Work, Jockey and Jockey/Trainer stats. I video handicap when I have time and I feel like I need more context. I block and I tackle. What I don't do is handicap looking at the Morning Line, nor do I read articles about the races or the runners before I handicap. I try to leave other's bias out of my analysis and only deal with my own inherent biases. <p></p><p>Woodbine is the closest major track to The Turk's home base of Western New York. I had the pleasure of going to the Fort Erie Race Track last week, the first time since COVID ended. I learned to play sprints by playing Fort Erie ad nauseum when I was younger. It's a wonderful track with an uncertain future. </p><p>Today's 7f, 1 turn <i>Connaught Cup Stakes</i> G2 at Woodbine has a nice 10 horse field with a 9 YO favorite, Wesley Ward's <b>Bound for Nowhere, </b>to me sets up a great chance to bet against the old veteran son of <b>The Factor.</b></p><p>Let's get after it!</p><p><i>Connaught Cup</i> G2: WO 7f on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up</p><p><br /></p><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYor4J0w3L58hiEaqSfhWMiHK88CwouWQUCefIpw5EaaXkDgsKsgGInrzJoDL4EaKMgJut5fPbnAWJ/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Years ago when I stopped handicapping with any foreknowledge of the Morning Lines, I learned that I was able to spot under and overlays easier. That said, I had to develop my ability to handicap and set my own fair lines. In today's race <b>War Bomber (Ire)</b> jumped off the page to me as an overlay. Let's take a look at his last time out on the Canada Day holiday, the 1 1/8 mile<i> Dominion Day</i> G3 on fake dirt. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Mp464ErvkIc" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Cutting back will only help, as the blistering 1:11 3/4 mile pace he's up for, just not much beyond that. Good early speed, should be forwardly placed. 20-1 Morning Line, 3 wins in five WO starts, 3 wins in 7 turf starts, winless in two 2023 starts. I like for a win bet at the right price. Jock Civaci jumps to <b>Lucky Score</b>, so he's most likely skeptical too!</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Lucky Score </b>and <b>Dream for Tomorrow </b>will be respected by the bettors. <b>Lucky Score</b> is moving up a furlong in distance (unraced previously a 7f) but is 4 of 6 Win/Place at WO and over turf and hit triple digit Beyer last time out, also on Canada Day, the Grade 2 <i>Highlander, </i>6f over grass. </div><div><br /></div><div> </div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/A1InbFiIDSw" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>That was a hell of a ride by Civaci to win at the wire at $14.30. <b>Dreams for Tomorrow</b> has 25% winner Patrick Husband, up, for McGaughey who ships in. The 6 YO is cutting back 1f. Should be tactical and within a few lengths of the lead at top of stretch and possesses excellent closing speed from there. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Bound for Nowhere</b> is my kind of horse. The 9 YO won a G2 last year here at Woodbine but is off to a slow start in 2023. Adding distance from past two race 5.5f affairs. Dangerous, but I'm skeptical. </div><div><br /></div><div>It's a deep race. <b>Churchtown</b> cuts back 1f and is starting off an 80 day layoff, but training sharply at WO since mid June. Attfield wins 20% of stake races but has only had 2 turf sprints over a rolling year, of which he has yet to win. 5 of 6 Win/Place over Turf, 2 of 2 Win/Place at WO. </div><div><br /></div><div>My last serious consideration is <b>Dream Shake</b>, only second turf start, a surface he is a maiden on. Ran and won a 7f fake dirt OC50K on 2 July. Fascinating, but I like to see some success first. </div><div><br /></div><div>So what am I doing with all this? A win bet for <b>War Bomber (Ire)</b> as long as I'm >8-1. My exacta will be <b>Lucky Score</b> wheeled with <b>War Bomber,</b> <b>Dreams of Tomorrow, Churchtown</b> and <b>Dream Shake</b>. I'm ignoring <b>Bound for Nowhere</b> at my own peril, I just don't like anywhere near 8-5</div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends!</div><div><br /></div><div>Turk Out</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-91618444469704719872023-07-22T12:05:00.003-04:002023-07-22T12:05:30.239-04:00The Nomination Is In: Haskell Day Jersey Shore Pick 6 Races 8-13<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, usually focusing on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. I said normally because today I'm handicapping the Jersey Short Pick Six (20 cent minimum), which incorporates The G3 <i>Molly Pitcher</i>, The G1T <i>United Nations </i>and the G1 <i>Haskell</i>. There was a time when this blog focused on Superfecta Betting but I've never been much of a horizontal bettor. It's not that I can't pick winners, it's part of the job description, but I never wanted to invest the time or the gambling capital needed. As the Turk nears retirement, I can see a day coming in my future where I get back to handicapping whole cards for mental exercise and relaxation, and I do think horizontals will be my thing as I spend full days in Hawaiian shirts without a care in the world. That's if the sport survives, but that's another rant for another day, <div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTg6I73mx_HlNISCGZdPldGwzOAaXAuF1VUaqm6AFdmcbntRY6kIjLxEaOHty3Rf1BisAjrg9V8vRoX_FPR21kSAFkxmIveIrTwu2sgDYn1agodDeNdSLc2-glg6SCi0ZOb-FWlnG0_lewiRjtSX0oU9RZ8bcRseFcZi-l3CgGGP2e0ipvucmwrlDbZQih/s400/monmouth.gif" style="clear: left; display: block; float: left; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="400" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTg6I73mx_HlNISCGZdPldGwzOAaXAuF1VUaqm6AFdmcbntRY6kIjLxEaOHty3Rf1BisAjrg9V8vRoX_FPR21kSAFkxmIveIrTwu2sgDYn1agodDeNdSLc2-glg6SCi0ZOb-FWlnG0_lewiRjtSX0oU9RZ8bcRseFcZi-l3CgGGP2e0ipvucmwrlDbZQih/w320-h240/monmouth.gif" width="320" /></a></div></div><div><span> </span>Full disclosure, I'm not betting my Pick 6, it's purely a mental exercise for me right now. I'll most likely paly most of these races as Win Bet or Exacta, but the Pick 6 betting strategy I don't have enough time into thinking about and I will revisit it another day. If you are into the horizontals, today may be the day to focus on the $500,000 guaranteed Pick 4 Race 9-12 or the $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 5, Race 10-14. </div><div><br /></div><div>Let's get after it!</div><div><br /></div><div> </div><div><br /></div>
Monmouth Park: Races 8-13 P6
<iframe height="1100" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTfAmotFyDNlqdYO6nnV9hsDjMJUFdQ-4O7ShjfLJhNsFKsF7-WSNeBbbDJPsVZtr-uxq9ngHxZfLwz/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>In race 8, I have Late Speed with <b>Proxy/6</b> and Early Speed with <b>Whelen Springs/7</b>. I see them as the class of this race, and they checked all my boxes for class, recent form, performance. </div><div><br /></div><div>If I'm still alive after Race 8 (which is not a given!), I go into two races that I plan to single. In Race 9, I went seven deep with potential win candidates but I'm singling <b>Fore Harp/9</b> with Paco Lopez (29% MTh) up. slight cut back, great recent form cycle, Trainer/Jock solid.</div><div><br /></div><div>I've played risky and lose, and if I'm still alive (it's gambling but...) in Race 10, the G3 <i>Molly Pitcher</i> I'm singling <b>Search Results/4.</b> Brown/Rosario 20% this rolling year , Brown's 34% at Monmouth, 30% off the 40 ish day layoff, and just great form. </div><div><br /></div><div>In the Grade 1 <i>United Nations</i>, it's hard not to root for Red Knight. The 9 YO has a G1 and G3 win this year and placed in a G2. Was a bit fractious in the gate in the <i>Manhattan </i>last time out. I expect him to be post time favorite which is wild, but I'm covering some value with him who I really like, <b>Catnip/3</b> and <b>Planetario (Brz)/6.</b> <b>Catnip</b> is very intriguing, training well, winner in G3 <i>Monmouth</i> last time out. </div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5FiimQWJqz4" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>In the <i>Haskell </i>I'm not looking towards the <i>Kentucky Derby</i> winner, <b>Mage</b>. <i> N</i>ext time out I will like him more, but I'd like to see how he bounces back. I really like <b>Salute the Stars/3</b>; Winner last time out here, improving and value. <b>Geaux Rocket Ride/1</b>, <b>Tapit Trice/5</b>, <b>Extra Anejo/7</b> and <b>Arabian Knight/8 </b>are all solid and to me, a cut above the rest. Great betting races in this Pick 6. I don't believe I'm alive in this thing, but we solider on!</div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, in Race 13, <b>Boston Princess/2</b>, <b>Cecile/7</b> and <b>Fortineno (Ire)/</b>9 are my choices as best of the field. </div><div><br /></div><div>Wasn't a great post, I think I'm burned out from such compelling fields and heavy handicapping. I'll unwind it tomorrow.</div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends</div><div><br /></div><div>Turk Out</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-21830697698555615842023-06-30T09:33:00.000-04:002023-06-30T09:33:00.937-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at Ellis Park<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAGFSGeIA9Mzc6OPeIeDRHRTlkxuGrnY_SAjo15-PLerqM6A46SeNzChcDfAUDdq7oo5CrtSEAzu1Ql9aCCe2q12IdaNuk5h-IH2I1MXD9eizF3BKNFKZxZRdDp74s10zyaLogKFIDxvK4PZJ4vj6nwv4F39o0aeYSg9fSKgoSbbC560FwsmIOkIJVN23H/s1920/1635345361-ellis-park-racing-henderson-kentucky-carrera-caballos.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAGFSGeIA9Mzc6OPeIeDRHRTlkxuGrnY_SAjo15-PLerqM6A46SeNzChcDfAUDdq7oo5CrtSEAzu1Ql9aCCe2q12IdaNuk5h-IH2I1MXD9eizF3BKNFKZxZRdDp74s10zyaLogKFIDxvK4PZJ4vj6nwv4F39o0aeYSg9fSKgoSbbC560FwsmIOkIJVN23H/w400-h225/1635345361-ellis-park-racing-henderson-kentucky-carrera-caballos.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. For those of you who have never read my blog, I'm The Turk and I've been handicapping and sharing my thoughts with this blog since 2008 and I've been playing the horses since 1986. I'd like to thank <a href="http://www.thorofan.com/">The Thorofan</a> for<strike> putting up with my ramblings</strike> hosting my thoughts today. <p></p><p>I must admit something: In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park. I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it. A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit. I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWKDeYspyQBkL7DMkci6TDwbWZzqr4xN-x0Ks1MVeRFm1x-y9moDJlxoBiWS3gKtslr4ranUF_Im-V_u93AgLiOCpcTosTzSumk0Mn465q1IYZeUocH5MGWcIe8nDcfnyvWLtUOECq9Cj4rKHds8dq77byzTSuYKwoqNJv2I4YYR2ErxhCPHfdYaLGGgND/s696/ellis-park-track-layout-26.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="696" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWKDeYspyQBkL7DMkci6TDwbWZzqr4xN-x0Ks1MVeRFm1x-y9moDJlxoBiWS3gKtslr4ranUF_Im-V_u93AgLiOCpcTosTzSumk0Mn465q1IYZeUocH5MGWcIe8nDcfnyvWLtUOECq9Cj4rKHds8dq77byzTSuYKwoqNJv2I4YYR2ErxhCPHfdYaLGGgND/w320-h269/ellis-park-track-layout-26.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Notice the highly unusual 90 degree chute for their mile course, just like Saratoga. The race will start and stop right in front of the grandstand. <div><br /></div><div>The weather is a wild card. It's very hot today but tomorrow there is a <a href="https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Henderson+KY?canonicalCityId=da6a12bfb5b6854acfc1cbc7735bb27f8c920ef7722062e1bedd8ffe5bf7b657">chance for severe weather</a> even hail. Make sure you check out the <a href="https://ellisparkracing.com/">Ellis Park website </a>and stay close to what's happening, but I'm handicapping assuming fast dirt for now. </div><div><br /></div><div>This time of the year with older dirt horses you can get a pretty good view of current form, as all eight of the horses have 3-5 starts by now. These horses also travel in the same circles mostly and compete in the same high profile races. I like recency video handicapping. I focus on the trip, the pace, and then I like to look at the horse's stretch runs when ahead, pressing or faltering. I'm no horse flesh expert, and while I like to watch the horses in the paddock, they all look on the muscle to me, so I don't glean much from that, but I think its really important to bring context to the past performance, as good as they are at condensing a lot of information in a uniform fashion. Most people don't have the time for that. I'm a boutique handicapper, 3-4 races per weekend, sometimes less. I focus on the quality of my review and not the quantity. I use to do the speed handicapping thing, not good. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyways, Let's get after it! <br /><p><i>Stephen Foster Handicap </i>G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles</p><p><i><iframe height="600" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQj7loMIlumBBRKI-0o3ua-TKbtHo7S9Jkn0Dsw4jbaeW9ZQBnkn_uwk1VFM_OZRGC506WqTBazD6yI/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="540"></iframe> </i></p><p><i><br /></i></p><p>Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles. The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners. I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses. You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six. <i> </i>I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so. This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks. </p><p>Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously. The <b>Uncle Mo</b> son <b>Speed Bias</b> is eye catching and a great price most likely. No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.</p><p>I've got a coin toss between <b>Rattle N Roll</b> and <b>Smile Happy</b> as the best horses in the gate. <b>Rattle N Roll</b> has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed. Three wins straight. 8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023. <b>Smile Happy</b> can run well early, can run well late. Blazing in the <i>Alysheba </i>in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good. </p><p>I threw a blanket over my next group. The beforementioned <b>Speed Bias</b> should have the best price. Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while. Training very sharply. </p><p><b>Western Will Power </b>is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated. Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023. Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out. 5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place. </p><p><b>Proxy</b> has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip. excellent late speed on display last time out at <i>Oaklawn Handicap</i>. Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April. 7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance. </p><p>I never know what to do with <b>Stilleto Boy</b>. No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance. 3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10. 9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts. I expect him to falter (famous last words).</p><p>I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing <b>Last Samurai</b> and <b>Happy American</b>. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field. </p><p><i> Oaklawn Handicap </i>G2: 22 April 2023; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt</p><p><br /></p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uVftoXhLO0g" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Santa Anita Handicap </i>G1: 4 March 2023; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/V51JwRQD8ls" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Pimlico Special </i>G3: 19 May 2023; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DM-KB_NJG9U" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Blame Stakes</i> G3: CD 3 June 2023; 1 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/j5sajiWKGK4" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Alysheba</i> G2: CD 5 May 2023; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yZC4HUtS9IU" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Ben Ali</i> G3: KEE 22 April 2023; 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/v-NFaGibXW8" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>So what to do with all this? I like to play exactas, so no reason to deviate. The best case scenario for me I don't see happening: a longer price winning over a mid pack price. I also don't want to play it too safe. Lets single <b>Speed Bias</b> to Win with <b>Rattle N Roll</b> to Place. A $2 bet. Sorry to disappoint with something better than that. I may change my thinking based on track conditions and scratches, as I'd love to find a way to slip <b>Last Samurai</b> in. </div><div><br /></div><div>I have a correction to make to: I bet Ellis Park once, <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/search/label/Ellis%20Park"><i>Kentucky Downs Preview Day</i>.</a> Now that Arlington Park is gone, Kentucky Downs is my favorite North American track, and that was the allure back in 2018. The funny thing is I said in 2018 that I don't think I ever handicapped Ellis Park either! </div><div><br /></div><div>Have Fun Friends.</div><div><br /></div><div>Turk Out!</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-6952364488338532512023-05-28T21:12:00.003-04:002023-05-28T21:16:40.971-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Gamely G1 at Santa Anita<p> </p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiE-yRDGeeaY-DVXAk0W-rjaYe2GuDFoEa_STjOFvNYL_tv5JZj6H_px64utvFXxxWgXBxivtUelmXMIitiiQYyndSPOvzVj8d3xvSe3XD5jSsDk45ZII1vGVozk7R6Yag5Xmch5cOpq_pJCVuGWWf-ZyvPeH7S1kO3lE1sOVFlQ2ORlZRGZEeAm7DCA/s1080/Queen-Goddess02-3-26-22-BA.webp" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="1080" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiE-yRDGeeaY-DVXAk0W-rjaYe2GuDFoEa_STjOFvNYL_tv5JZj6H_px64utvFXxxWgXBxivtUelmXMIitiiQYyndSPOvzVj8d3xvSe3XD5jSsDk45ZII1vGVozk7R6Yag5Xmch5cOpq_pJCVuGWWf-ZyvPeH7S1kO3lE1sOVFlQ2ORlZRGZEeAm7DCA/w400-h285/Queen-Goddess02-3-26-22-BA.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Queen Goddess- Benoit (Thank you)</td></tr></tbody></table>Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and place exacta bets. <p></p><p>Happy Memorial Day. We honor our war dead and those who gave the greatest sacrifice in the name of serving their country. This blog is written by a war veteran. My Dad, and my Grandfather, were both war veterans. I can only speak for myself, but war rhetoric has no place in modern American politics. A disproportionate amount of middle class and lower income men and women, whose parents are not politicians will die needlessly in the chess game of elites who have big mouths but lack guts. This blog is apolitical, but fiercely anti-war. Stop the rhetoric, Democrat and Republican, and defuse global tensions before its too late.</p><p>Today let's take a look at the Grade 1 <i>Gamely</i> at Santa Anita. I would have liked a slightly bigger field, but there is some real quality runners in this field. Let's get after it!</p><i>
<iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTsjwIVpJZ4E4w4ApfpGUKySkIFpccZnuUpW2fn3AL6ERe8rqu48B1EKwr9DOoGvo_PxhgjUXcPBbih/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="525"></iframe> </i><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i> Royal Heroine</i> G2; 1 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf<div><br /><div>
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<i><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i><br /></i></div>The Wilshire</i> G3; 30 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf
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<i>Buena Vista Stakes</i> G2; March 4 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Good Turf
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<i>RJ Frankel</i> G3; 31 December 2022 SA 1 1/8 Miles on Good Turf
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<i>Allowance $99K</i>; 21 April 2023 KEE 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf
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</div><div><br /></div><div>As I've said many times, I don't handicap with the Morning Lines. I don't look at the Morning Lines before I prepare my Fair Odds, and by then I have already handicapped. I was shocked to see 5-2 on <b>Viareggio (Ire)</b>. I posted the <b>Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) </b>4 YO last race, a $99K Allowance at Keeneland in Mid April. Solid late close. A really good ride by Gaffalione who isn't up today for Trainer Brendan Walsh. First time at Santa Anita. 4 of 12 in exacta on Turf, all wins. 1 Win in 1 start at distance. Seemed a bit rich at this point in her career. </div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Queen Goddess</b> to me is the top choice. I'm choosing to look past her <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/2023/04/the-nomination-is-in-jenny-wiley-grade.html" target="_blank"><i>Jenny Wiley</i>, which the Turk picked her third</a> in and rightly so, as she was in deep like the rest of the field that day against a very sharp <b>In Italian (GB)</b>. Cutting back, the 5 YO purchased for a whopping $1.5 MM and career earnings of $770,000 (sounds like my bankroll to winnings ratio!) is 7 of 10 in turf exactas, 3 of 3 in SA exactas, and last outing at SA a win on New Years Eve in the <i>RJ Frankel</i>. </div><div><br /></div><div>I think any of <b>Macadamia (Brz)</b> (slight edge) or <b>Viareggio (Ire) </b>and <b>Quattroelle (Ire)</b> could hit the exacta. <b>Macadamia</b> ran April 30 at 1 Mile at SA in <i>The Wilshire </i>and ran exceptionally well. The 5 YO seems to have found a new level this year. <b>Quattroelle</b> beat <b>Macadami</b>a two back in the G2 <i>Buena Vista</i>, also 1 Mile at SA. 9 of 16 in Turf exactas, 7 of 11 in SA Turf exactas, 1 win in 4 tries at 1 Mile. <i>Viareggio </i>is a flyer, but I'm not a big fan of taking a flyer on an overhyped, over bet, 2nd time NA start horse. </div><div><br /></div><div>If I'm looking for bigger value, Trainer Carla Gaines <b>Closing Remarks:</b> A win two back in the <i>Royal Heroine</i> at 1 Mile at SA in early April before faltering late as the chalk in <i>The Wilshire</i>. Same early and Late Timeform Pace Figs as <b>Quattroelle</b>. The 5 YO is off to a good 2023 but is 7 of 13 in the exacta at SA, 4 of 5 in the exacta at the distance and 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>School Dance</b> isn't my choice to back in the exacta but not out of question for Tri or Exotics. I tossed <b>Bellamore</b> who does have a good late turn of foot.</div><div><br /></div><div>$2 Bet, <b>Queen Goddess/Macadamia</b> OVER <b>Closing Remarks</b> and <b>Quatroelle</b> for $8 and my alternative is <b>Closing Remarks </b>OVER <b>Quattroelle</b>, <b>Viareggio</b>, <b>Macadamia</b> and <b>Queeen Goddess</b> , a $2 Bet for $8. I think I like my alternative better for value. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends. Turk Out!</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-67651819865750809172023-05-20T11:35:00.001-04:002023-05-20T11:35:11.754-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Preakness Stakes 139 <div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8SLlreyNxFxIN6acDOXFwc6vk5SbBjfKpSXyqIWWNNsHOtS8OXFk3OoJ-Z1XaWMknXwAVbigMjrB_MYv2_Y4f44FamDQVLlDMWuSCPgmRkIwI-PIZ36TcSKbw7PkGLtCGGUBq5-NbIcRMqwXc5HscQq-1MG57U47yXosogJxz4xcolx_pLzwZ2zMZXw/s3264/Preakness%20138%202013.JPG" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3264" data-original-width="2448" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8SLlreyNxFxIN6acDOXFwc6vk5SbBjfKpSXyqIWWNNsHOtS8OXFk3OoJ-Z1XaWMknXwAVbigMjrB_MYv2_Y4f44FamDQVLlDMWuSCPgmRkIwI-PIZ36TcSKbw7PkGLtCGGUBq5-NbIcRMqwXc5HscQq-1MG57U47yXosogJxz4xcolx_pLzwZ2zMZXw/s320/Preakness%20138%202013.JPG" width="240" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2013's Preakness 138</td></tr></tbody></table>Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap Turf Races and develop exacta bets. There was a time when I handicapped exclusively on the dirt, but times change, as do interests. I like big fields and horses with a lot of data. Today's <i>Preakness</i> offers neither, with the smallest field since the early 80's at seven, and the favorite, <i>Kentucky Derby</i> winner <b>Mage</b>, starting his fifth race. </div><div><br /></div><div>I went to the Preakness Stakes just once, ten years ago. It was cold and rained. The Goo Goo Dolls, from Western New York just like The Turk, played in the infield. My mother and sister were in the same hotel as me without any pre planning. Trips to see graded stakes are some of the most relaxing vacations I've ever taken. I sit and contemplate the horses and time stands still. I don't believe in thinking about retirement before you actually retire, because as another famous Western New Yorker but Chicago native Marv Levy once said, once you start thinking about retirement, you're already retired, but that said, if I day dream a bit about it, I find my thoughts drifting to lazy days at the track. Last memory of <i>Preakness </i>138? I stood in the valet line with Pitbull after the event. He was surrounded by women and dripped suave. La Vida Loca, DJ. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyways, the <a href="https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/b9f68830e04a4b31ef75d363676088c2535e168516879561fa20fd8759edb5c0#detailIndex4">chance of rain increases as the day goes on</a> but I'm assuming the track will be fast and the turf firm. <br /></div>
<div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Let's Get after it!</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><iframe height="600" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTsdTBkzkICAFfAB-aNudILmF0d8uMOI3sx5-2-JRbUJYlBFteOSP2RHuWKc4StGSoliYmNtce5ENFh/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Mage </b>is deserving of the top spot, especially with less pressure from <b>First Mission </b>who scratched on <b>Black Eyed Susan</b> Friday. At a seven horse field, this just isn't that fun a betting race unless chaos ensues. I think we can make a case or two for that.</div><div><br /></div><div>I think <b>National Treasure</b> has a solid chance to win. Good Early speed and strong late speed, from the one post, with blinkers on (Baffert 17%), could take and hold the lead wire to wire. I have a soft spot for well bred <b>Quality Road's</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Red Route One </b>will be flying near the end but should be lagging out of the 5th post. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Blazing Sevens</b> has been training very sharply for Chad Brown and also possess a strong late step. </div><div><br /></div><div>Perform, from the six spot, is a <b>Good Magic</b> colt like <b>Blazing Sevens</b>, and has good tactical speed but overall slower than most. Don't expect the pace to favor a win but value in the place or Exotic spots possible.</div><div><br /></div><div>As we are gambling, I'm going to put <b>National Treasure </b>and <b>Red Route One</b> in the win spot, with <b>National Treasure, Mage, Red Route One, Blazing Sevens</b> and <b>Perform</b> in Place; a $2 Bet of 1,5 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 for $16 bucks. If Mage wins I will perform a magic trick of making a big pile of dollars disappear. Covering <b>Mage</b> in the win spot adds $8 to the bet, for $24 investment. That doesn't work. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends. Turk Out! </div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-80619807104560125522023-05-13T12:18:00.009-04:002023-05-13T18:39:56.359-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Man O' War G1<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
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<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4d0khaBPkldQ1oCJ5-1V_Dkw4szzObMaPTQxlmcawdY2bMjJTSaNJCUCKsvARjuC7coOXu3SPMbWqwhO9C7YB9clqmX0Qem0gOMtVfM2is6Lbhty9osjIfQ3AanJ1B49RuiQDqeON_Rlu77qaNGMDNWo69eZjubdiAByFbqHxN1LHK3Z9jSUYL9Tw_g/s413/Verstappen%20Coady.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="413" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4d0khaBPkldQ1oCJ5-1V_Dkw4szzObMaPTQxlmcawdY2bMjJTSaNJCUCKsvARjuC7coOXu3SPMbWqwhO9C7YB9clqmX0Qem0gOMtVfM2is6Lbhty9osjIfQ3AanJ1B49RuiQDqeON_Rlu77qaNGMDNWo69eZjubdiAByFbqHxN1LHK3Z9jSUYL9Tw_g/s320/Verstappen%20Coady.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Verstappen: Keeneland/Coady Photography</span></td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, focusing on turf racing and exact betting, and I am the Turk. For those of you that don't know me, I started handicapping at Saratoga in the summer of 1986 and started this blog in 2007. I like older runners over grass, as I find the data available on them, as well as their long careers as stakes runners, compelling. I'm not that wrapped up in Triple Crown euphoria, but I watched the <i>Kentucky Derby</i> for the first time since 2019 and handicapped it for the first time in many years, and do I love the handle and the big fields. Chaos pays. I did win the Trifecta on the <i>Turf Classic</i> and I won the Exacta on the <i>Kentucky Derby</i>, but I only netted about $46 dollars across both. I wasn't a very sharp bet constructor, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.<br /><p></p><p>Today is more like the typical race I handicap, a Graded Stake older horse turf race, which I generally like between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles in length to handicap. I'm not a marathon handicapper and I'm not a one turn sprinter handicapper either. Know thy self!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNFkuHfFe3iF6Stx8YEvJnYyX6A38ul7Ealk7Es0qF48t3NJpyhWgjZ2y8QfQ6ou68WEhkSsjhqu9UUD_nB6S_lP2Ho-F_55lBMYfY37_UruS-e4nF2mbydCfVb6ywFAaIdZvDklWaL-iXeHbhdiHyrf-qkTlOGsL1NA10W9oGzZLaHrvZLOEwAgVVYw/s2688/IMG_5412.PNG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2688" data-original-width="1242" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNFkuHfFe3iF6Stx8YEvJnYyX6A38ul7Ealk7Es0qF48t3NJpyhWgjZ2y8QfQ6ou68WEhkSsjhqu9UUD_nB6S_lP2Ho-F_55lBMYfY37_UruS-e4nF2mbydCfVb6ywFAaIdZvDklWaL-iXeHbhdiHyrf-qkTlOGsL1NA10W9oGzZLaHrvZLOEwAgVVYw/w296-h640/IMG_5412.PNG" width="296" /></a></div>So what to do with this? Lets start with a piece of very relevant video, the Grade 2 Elkhorn from KEE on 22 April <br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>
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<div><br /></div><div><div><br /></div><div>I like how the four year old gelded <b>Verstappen</b> went eye to eye with the veteran <b>Red Knight </b>and found the will to pull ahead. Don't underestimate the competitive nature in video handicapping analysis. Everyone else in the Elkhorn that is going here did what you would expect, running style wise.</div><div><br /></div><div>I wanted to find some video on <b>Warren Point (GB</b>), the 4 YO gelded son of <b>Dubawi (Ire). </b>This is over fake dirt from last October. Good staking trip and great late turn of foot.
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</div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRncD_omCqQKwlWwI9CwOgyrtDwEYh-35lheC2pkdqNev_awKRkZdbCSFpI7YHa8qI07HfPstEEzuea/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
I don't know if the Morning Line spread will hold, as I value <b>Verstappen</b> much more than the Belmont track handicapper did. I plan on putting <b>Verstappen</b>/4 and <b>Warren Point (GB)</b>/2 OVER 4-2-1-6-3, a $2 Bet for $16.
Have fun with it friends.
Turk Out
The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-18100027018783123372023-05-06T13:30:00.001-04:002023-05-06T13:30:21.666-04:00The Nomination Is In: The 149th Kentucky Derby G1<p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIEvAjJ4_4fjD6y8GPmKNFss1KO_m3Iixt6CFCjJOd2CxEyJJfNSwVTIomiRmsn1fpeP2sWV3w5qVFh1Sb_Qsem7awPJYuFIaKOA4I8LeOsZU1BqUKLsCvCj_zEiyhWEiyFs-5qNjI9p1no9r_nRUwkPNUu_kOYrpcF8pRmv9p5K_pHjTf12uNB8rhIw/s413/ffeabc12c30647299bdd65c35da73f9a.jpg" style="clear: left; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="413" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIEvAjJ4_4fjD6y8GPmKNFss1KO_m3Iixt6CFCjJOd2CxEyJJfNSwVTIomiRmsn1fpeP2sWV3w5qVFh1Sb_Qsem7awPJYuFIaKOA4I8LeOsZU1BqUKLsCvCj_zEiyhWEiyFs-5qNjI9p1no9r_nRUwkPNUu_kOYrpcF8pRmv9p5K_pHjTf12uNB8rhIw/w384-h320/ffeabc12c30647299bdd65c35da73f9a.jpg" width="384" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Rocket Can: Coady Photography</span></td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome Back Friends to the Turk Blog. <a href="https://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-nomination-is-in-turf-classic-g1-at.html" target="_blank">In my last post for Race 11, the <i>Turf Classic</i></a>, I prattled on about my love of the older horses running over grass, and my lack of enthusiasm for the 3 YO <i>Kentucky Derby </i>runners. Well, that's still true, but the gambler in me loves big handle and chaos, and with all the scratches including morning line and $2.0 MM winner, champion <b>Forte</b>, we have chaos. One thing I love about the <i>Kentucky Derby</i> is that one day a year it's like yesteryear, and everyone is a race fan and everyone has an opinion. My father, rest in peace, bet the grey horses because his sister, my dear Aunt Rose, loved the grey horses. It doesn't need to be anymore complicated than that. The good looking fella to the left is <b>Rocket Can</b>, but <b>Hit Show</b>, <b>Tapit Trice</b>, <b>Reincarnate</b> and <b>King Russell </b>are all Gr/Ro, so plenty to pick from. </p><p>From a handicapping perspective, I'm watching the undercard and speed seems to be carrying, but I'm favoring late speed to round out my potential exacta contenders. Let's get after it!</p>
<iframe height="1250" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQRhdq2Fhysvbttg2Zcb-8vlPFDTuBMMSzVBcuN9RB8sl3vwe01FCyA32McnT26IqchR7R80OFQqrI7/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>I won't elaborate too much on the why's to my ranking. I looked at recency/current form, class and effort, plus I do favor late pace figs over early. I could post 10 videos but really, have fun with this and look for value.</div><div><br /></div><div>If I just boxed my top ten, a $1 bet is $90. Depending by the finish, the risk/reward can be justified with the field size and handle expected. </div><div><br /></div><div>I will not box however, I will whittle down my potential winners and come up with something a bit more risky but even more reward-y. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends. Turk out!</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-46753445144112042982023-05-06T11:46:00.002-04:002023-05-06T11:46:36.473-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Turf Classic G1 at Churchill Downs<p> </p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-lAy6wUBcv5jziLIkEN86waakO2MtTr_2t_2uhSsSeUR0mmISf-nXdXjm73Hiwh7bL0N7rTIqhH9vd_hQGO_y7GGDxWAKF8xB2D6zmWv62QRuaMERlYsy8aIcnAJMX1LJWB9i_8GlvUuCzOx3rPcdAxoIQ4lUv18T0VRtNIXe1UbpgStZNCdz-2rf3Q/s615/Hong_Kong_Harry_2022_Seabiscuit_Handicap_Benoit.jpg" style="clear: left; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="615" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-lAy6wUBcv5jziLIkEN86waakO2MtTr_2t_2uhSsSeUR0mmISf-nXdXjm73Hiwh7bL0N7rTIqhH9vd_hQGO_y7GGDxWAKF8xB2D6zmWv62QRuaMERlYsy8aIcnAJMX1LJWB9i_8GlvUuCzOx3rPcdAxoIQ4lUv18T0VRtNIXe1UbpgStZNCdz-2rf3Q/w386-h260/Hong_Kong_Harry_2022_Seabiscuit_Handicap_Benoit.jpg" width="386" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Hong Kong Harry (Ire) Del Mar Thoroughbred Club/Benoit Photo</span></td></tr></tbody></table>Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping and bet construction blog focused on turf racing and exacta betting. When I first started blogging, I felt compelled to get into the <i>Kentucky Derby</i> trail, the prep races and then the first Saturday in May. Some of the "too cool for school" bloggers that I was part of a blogging alliance with would poo-poo the Derby as beneath them. I've never understood how the biggest racing day in America can be beneath anyone writing about this game, but I do understand not caring that much about the 3 YOs. I don't. As a handicapper, their is only one group of horses I like to handicap and bet less, and that's 2 YOs. I like history, video, consistency. I have a soft spot for the veterans, the hard knocker's, the geldings, the survivors. It's my favorite part of horse racing, the unheralded turf runners, big fish in a small pond of public recognition. While I'm likely to tote board handicap the <i>Kentucky Derby</i>, especially with the chaos taking place with all the scratches, staying true to my brand, I'm blogging the race just before, the <i>Turf Classic</i> Grade 1. Life is short, do what you like not what is expected. Let's get after it!<p></p>
<iframe height="650" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTkZR9vJXO5qP6ZPkVYTK4VQQdzYzTYhDeJDO4MxGZlPaDUEaEn8uQBOAAkIhrGnMf8afDpvAtL1PAZ/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>The ten horse field was impacted by two scratches, <b>Master Piece (Chi)</b> and <b>Steady On</b>. <b>Steady On</b> would have pressed the early pace and <b>Master Piece (Chi)</b> had the best late speed. Don't fool yourself, the loss of these pace presser on the front and back end of this field will affect how it unfolds. What to do with it? </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm putting <b>Hong Kong Harry (Ire)</b> and <b>Up to the Mark</b> in the win spots. 6 YO versus 4 YO. But will be rolling late. <b>Hong Kong Harry</b> has had a slow start to 2023, but Trainer D'Amato 25% off of the layoff. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 11 of 12 in the money over turf, but first trip over CD Turf. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Up to the Mark</b> was bred for this distance but goes at 1 1/8 for first time. First time CD. 2 wins in 3 turf starts, 9th career start. Nice late run in the <i>Maker's Mark Mile </i>G1 at KEE 21 days ago. Good start to 2023 with two OC 62K wins at Gulfstream. I.Ortiz, up, 26% in 566 starts over past year. Rooting for Repole here. I honestly don't pay that much attention to owners, but he spoke to Fan Duel TV this AM as I was writing this blog and his genuine sadness for other people in his life and circle over the scratch of <b>Forte </b>in the <i>Kentucky Derby</i> made me a fan of the man's character. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Santin</b> and <b>Spooky Channel</b> could easily win this race. Brendan Walsh's <b>Pretty Mischievous</b> win in the <i>Kentucky Oaks</i> must have the Godolphin trainer walking on sunshine. 5 YO <b>Santin</b> goes Synth to Turf here, which Walsh is only 14% doing. Bad start in last start. No bid in losing to <b>Hong Kong Harry</b> in the <i>Seabiscuit Handicap</i> 22 November 2022. 2 for 2 at CD, including this race last year and the faux <i>Arlington Million</i>. Speaking of that, today would have been the opening day at what I considered the best turf track in North America, Arlington Park. It was a wonderful track, I had a deep connection going back to it from 1985, and I'll never forgive this stupidly (un) managed sport, the corporate greed of CDI, and the moronic state government of Illinois. Moving on...</div><div><br /></div><div><i>Seabiscuit H</i>. G2: 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar</div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/euvjy4LKdw4" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Spooky Channel</b>, the 8 YO, has been in great form in 2023 and should be rolling late as well also. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>Muniz Memorial </i>G2: 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf at Fair Grounds, 25 March 2023.</div><div><br /></div><div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lZJyQUOVw20" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>29th start today, with 13 turf wins and 18 of 28 in the money over grass. </div><div><br /></div><div>I think those are the serious win candidates, and quite frankly only <b>Wolfie's Dynaghost</b> should be considered with the other Win candidates for the Place spot. <b>Wolfie's Dynaghost</b> should go off at <10-1, also is a synth to turf runner with Trainer Thomas winning 25% of those. Should be the early speed coming out of 3 spot, most likely next to <b>Ocean Atlantique</b> who I'm discounting at my own peril. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm thinking I may single <b>Up to the Mark</b> for the best Value and play 3 or so under him. Something like 5 OVER 3,7,8,9 a $2 bet for $8. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk Out!</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-3784090752155835692023-04-21T08:10:00.001-04:002023-04-21T15:37:22.074-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Oaklawn Handicap G2<p> </p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHDXnMBvQSdkw6_dMqX9aoncXTNvCpkCIFXDCi4WcjZyReUIJhL22fv0d5zdULppBzaYZgHCIJtL491UdibEN1n6fjziP7tTIiFwgAy9fVJmlB83qPReyn1TM-8-_4YRKJBD5WsMRIjggaH6oiDn6YdYrOMW9pKvRoxUmx1g7SHLXWEvf_OoxfR-fk_A/s2100/Rated-R-Superstar_2022-Governors-Cup_Dustin-Orona-Photography-Remington-Park.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="2100" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHDXnMBvQSdkw6_dMqX9aoncXTNvCpkCIFXDCi4WcjZyReUIJhL22fv0d5zdULppBzaYZgHCIJtL491UdibEN1n6fjziP7tTIiFwgAy9fVJmlB83qPReyn1TM-8-_4YRKJBD5WsMRIjggaH6oiDn6YdYrOMW9pKvRoxUmx1g7SHLXWEvf_OoxfR-fk_A/s320/Rated-R-Superstar_2022-Governors-Cup_Dustin-Orona-Photography-Remington-Park.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Rated R Superstar: Thank You Dustin Orona</span></td></tr></tbody></table>Welcome Friends to <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/">The Turk Blog</a>, I am the Turk, a 37 year horse handicapper who has been blogging since 2008. My handicapping these days is primarily for races run over a route of grass, but an occasional foray onto dirt is always enjoyable. I'd like to thank <a href="http://www.thorofan.com/">The Thorofan</a> for allowing me this opportunity today. <p></p><p>My handicapping methods are a derivative of styles learned from reading handicapping authors like Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz, and when I was a younger, The Happy Handicapper, Robert Summers. Yes, I refer to myself in the third person as The Turk. Originally I did this to protect my identity because I wasn't sure if my employer would frown upon an employee with a certain amount of fiduciary responsibilities writing about gambling. Oh, how the times have changed. For anyone who joined the work force in the 1980's, just think back to what was acceptable behavior and personal appearance back then compared to now. I'm not saying it was better or worse, I'm just saying it's very different. In today's climate, writing about horse racing and gambling will most likely cause you to be ostracized for being a bit weird, but in the spectrum of workplace weird, on the harmless side of the scale. What does any of this have to do with horse racing? I started to think about older horses when I looked at <b>Rated R Superstar</b>, the 1 horse in the <i>Oaklawn Handicap</i>, the $1.0 MM Grade 2 race at Oaklawn Park I am focused on today. This will be the 10 year old gelded son of <b>Kodiak Kowboy</b> ($5,000 fee) 69th race. When I started handicapping horses made more starts, and it wasn't uncommon to see big start counts, but when was the last time in a Grade 2 you saw a 10 YO with that many starts? It's not often. A millionaire winner across the Oaklawn surface and approaching $2.0 MM in career earnings, I have a special place in my heart of the hard knocking veterans. His <a href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/horsecard/rated-r-superstar/9511910">performance for his career in blacktype</a> is just steady and consistent. <a href="https://paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/acting-like-hes-ready-to-run-rated-r-superstar-will-make-10-year-old-debut-in-fifth-season-stakes/">Follow this link </a>to read more about <b>Rated R Superstar's</b> 10th season debut from earlier this year. </p><p>Do you put time into studying the science and data behind racing? <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP4AK0DQgDKys2RjMlBK6fuHYnjvohtNlY0-QYwxHy0MZjfmUnfIK8SJfGHe87OW6HsbwBQpcYBzuMlhQXcJSRjhZvIJ7UXX2VHnt2xwUqaG_rn9iUerAq5rcXarUloibdLbd6sMnAQGItMb38HxuPJL3rxKXuNwmZ_PaY-dfMtPI719dUR8265pfYCQ/s1263/Speed%20fig%20by%20age.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="898" data-original-width="1263" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP4AK0DQgDKys2RjMlBK6fuHYnjvohtNlY0-QYwxHy0MZjfmUnfIK8SJfGHe87OW6HsbwBQpcYBzuMlhQXcJSRjhZvIJ7UXX2VHnt2xwUqaG_rn9iUerAq5rcXarUloibdLbd6sMnAQGItMb38HxuPJL3rxKXuNwmZ_PaY-dfMtPI719dUR8265pfYCQ/w640-h456/Speed%20fig%20by%20age.png" width="550" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span><span style="color: #212121; font-family: inherit;">In a 29 January 2011 published paper entitled, <u><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/#:~:text=Horses%20may%20race%20until%20they,of%20aging%20among%20thoroughbred%20racehorses.">The Effect of Age on </a></u></span><span style="color: #212121;"><u><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/#:~:text=Horses%20may%20race%20until%20they,of%20aging%20among%20thoroughbred%20racehorses.">Thoroughbred</a></u></span><span style="color: #212121; font-family: inherit;"><u><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/#:~:text=Horses%20may%20race%20until%20they,of%20aging%20among%20thoroughbred%20racehorses."> Race Performance</a></u>, authors Marshall and Marksteiner generated data on the impact to Beyer Speed Figs over time. Horses were grouped into</span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: inherit;"> 25 categories based on age and the table above shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #212121; font-family: inherit;">In <b>Rated R Superstar's</b> case, 55 horses made 565 total starts when they were greater than 9 years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 565 races average 7.1 points or 0.5 standard deviations below their career mean speed figure (Diff and St Diff). This differential translates into 2.9 lengths for a 6 furlong race. It may seem obvious, but I find the curve up and the curve away to/from peak performance by age to be the </span><span style="color: #212121;">interesting</span><span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> thing here and it fits my fact pattern for analyzing horses of different age competing against each other. Interesting yes, handicapping actionable data? I focus on recency, typically less than a year and less than past six starts, to peg current form and don't try to view the career starts and </span>performance<span style="font-family: inherit;"> like this, but still, fascinating. </span></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Ok, I clearly did not understand the assignment! Lets get after it. </span></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's a bit early to figure out what the track conditions will be. <a href="https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Hot+Springs+AR?canonicalCityId=db91e47fdbf1b896674ff1469cc62bba422dd23752d30adc20296d951d5dcf9f">Weather is calling for</a> some rain on Friday and slightly dryer Saturday. </span></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #212121;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>The Essex Handicap</i> G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 18 March 2023 at Oaklawn Park</span></span></span></p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ETlgV73-Tu8" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><p><i>The Gulfstream Park Mile</i> G2: 1 Mile on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fQMHRyPlcwc" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><div><i>The Santa Anita Handicap</i> G1: 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rwXIltVEf98" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>
<div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Recency. These three races seem to really pick up on today's contestants abilities and possibly their deficiencies. Let's put a pin in that for now. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>The Oaklawn Handicap </i>G2: 1 1/8 Miles over Dirt for 4 YO and Up</div><div><br /></div>
<iframe height="600" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTUZVcjsjJ74TQTqjOx9k1PfWH3sTyrq9riu0TzaQzZJvi7u-Q0QIrJ_bIpV-TlQx1E8YDL0w6qMslG/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>This is a compelling field, a blanket finish style of handicap, with a mix of early speed and closing turns of foot that I expect will intersect over the last panel. I like <b>Last Samurai</b> if I'm singling. Two 100+ Beyer wins over this track in grade 3's over past two months. 4 wins in 9 OP starts. Only one win in 9 tries at the distance, 25% winner in 20 starts over fast dirt. He's not outclassed by much, working well, solid connections and breeding, little to dislike but could easily finish out of the money too. I'm betting that his earlier tactical will put him on the rail out of the gate and his late speed will give him a look at the wire. </div><div><br /></div><div>The next five runners to me are all toss ups with little to differentiate them. In no order, Pletcher adds Blinkers to <b>Charge It</b>. The horse looked unfocused and had no real fight in the <i>Gulfstream Park Mile</i>. Blinkers for Pletcher is a 18% win for first in 56 tries and blinkers in general drive a 19% win in 62 tries. Far outside but big early speed. Position and pace may dictate how much fight he has this race. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Proxy</b> is a late speed monster. 5 Place or Shows in 7 starts at this distance, 1 win. Look at his close in <i>Santa Anita Handicap</i>, his belated late run in <i>Pegasus</i> G1, right down his Past Performances. Rosario, up, won with him in The G1 <i>Clark</i> last November where he ran on the pace. I expect he will try something similar. </div><div><br /></div><div>The before mentioned <b>Rated R Superstar</b> should not win this race but his 25 starts over OP Dirt is more races than career starts for anyone else in the field and he will bring his best. </div><div><br /></div><div>The ageless Kent Desormeaux rode a magnificent <i>Santa Anita Handicap</i> with <b>Stilleto Boy</b> who cannot be ignored. Show in the <i>Pegasus</i> at 45-1 two back. 4 of 4 lifetime in the money at OP, 14 of 18 in the money on fast dirt, early speed, Could be a real disruptive force here.</div><div><br /></div><div>Finally,<b> Classic Causeway</b> at 4 YO makes second dirt start after spending the back half of 3 YO campaign on the turf. $1.4 M winner from some early 3 YO success, could go either way now. </div><div><br /></div><div>What to do with all this? Most likely I'll be watching the tote board (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/402955aa-21fa-42d5-b1d7-f79e7f19a617">which has become an increasingly frustrating exercise as late money pours in with no time to react for the little guy</a>) and looking for a value play that runs counter to my handicap. A $2 Exacta of <b>Rated R Superstar</b>, <b>Stilleto Boy</b>, <b>Last Samurai </b>and <b>Proxy</b>, with two of the longer odds covered in Win-Place and two of the shorter odds in Place only is $12. I'd like to see <b>Charge It</b>, who is plenty capable, have a better effort before I back again. </div><div><br /></div><div> I'll most likely come up with 10 more permutations of this bet construction before post time, so have fun with it yourself and good luck!</div><div><br /></div><div>Turk Out!</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-44831568014351043972023-04-15T11:35:00.007-04:002023-04-15T11:35:55.595-04:00The Nomination Is In: The Jenny Wiley Grade 1 at KEE<p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcApNQJhBliopk8x83O7WCDJad3Bu3YfCmkLyHph5h-3NrSUN7wBuc5xaZuKZGx2kiTAZCyjaaRlSc4_FdTlkGjHHQ_NAX673pwmxCtzDAFQMoY6iBXLp3SoUvwp4h0v8sZ_hLYxteCYykHm876X149GAaVzpycR9aTVP6_jHfOM0EXM3uYAV9eGy7AA/s1080/KEE-Scarlett-Sky11-4-2-21-CO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1080" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcApNQJhBliopk8x83O7WCDJad3Bu3YfCmkLyHph5h-3NrSUN7wBuc5xaZuKZGx2kiTAZCyjaaRlSc4_FdTlkGjHHQ_NAX673pwmxCtzDAFQMoY6iBXLp3SoUvwp4h0v8sZ_hLYxteCYykHm876X149GAaVzpycR9aTVP6_jHfOM0EXM3uYAV9eGy7AA/s320/KEE-Scarlett-Sky11-4-2-21-CO.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Keeneland: Coady Photography</span></td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome Friends to <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The Turk and the Little Turk</a> Blog, celebrating with zero fanfare both the recent milestone of making our 700 Blog Post and for 16 years of providing pretty darn good handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it. I am the Turk, an almost 40 year handicapper who focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. My handicapping style focuses on the analysis of DRF Formulator Past Performances (I pay for them, not an endorsement I just like them the best) and I compare Class, Early and Late Speed, Turf record, Track success, Distance record, Recency, Jock/Trainer Stats and recent works. I also try to understand the Trainer's motivation for placing their horse in that particular race. I try to stay with dry/fast tracks and I try to make sure if I'm betting that the field is large and that I can identify some angle to approach the bet construction that avoids putting the top two horses on the tote board at post time into my ticket. <br /></p><p><span> <span> </span><span> </span>All that said, and today's race was a bummer for me. Three scratches taking the field to 6, and just not much of a betting angle I'm seeing. Lets jump right into it!</span></p><p><i>The Jenny Wiley </i>G1: 1 1/16 Miles on Turf for 4 YO and UP F&M. </p>
<iframe height="600" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQQ_CVnyuRf_wuG7PfLwllRme84hJn0-qzsvOEBG6QmwW4ylZh3KlFtU6U2q7flN-cBdzJJNyXw8nq1/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>7-5 ML (41.7% Win Odds) for <b>In Italian (GB)</b>. Huge early speed, and with the three scratches, as well as her inside positioning, I am anticipating a wire to wire win. </div><div><br /></div><div>If you are compelled to bet, single <b>In Italian (GB) </b>and look for value for the Place position. I'm going to look for <b>Speak of the Devil (FR): </b>Best late speed in the field and decent tactical speed, the 6 YO Mare is well traveled, trained by Brown with Prat, up. Jumping in class and adding distance. <b>White Frost</b> is another to look for. Mott trained, training well, late speed, 5<b> of 5 on turf and success at the distance. </b> Neither of these two are the in the Class of <b>In Italian (GB)</b> or a few others, but they only have to get to second and the value will be there. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>With the Moonlight (Ire)</b> and <b>Queen Goddess</b> are very serious contenders. They are better than my Place Selections by a lot as well, but this is bet construction not handicapping. </div><div><br /></div><div>You could go contrarian and assemble <b>With the Moonlight (IRE)</b> over <b>In Italian (GB), White Frost and Speak of the Devil (FR)</b>, a $2 Bet for $6. I like the value and the risk-reward elements.</div><div><br /></div><div>I apologize, sometimes you are just wasting time handicapping and you just need to assemble a value bet. Time is money at the track. </div><div><br /></div><div> Have fun friends, Turk out!</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-84290594690599410462023-03-05T09:55:00.006-05:002023-03-05T13:08:38.884-05:00Post Race Handicapping Analysis: The Honey Fox G3 at Gulfstream<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmpfdu9kHcH_KADrSYen3woaRLxNbxPMNUMyA3koBWuK5f9LfNkU2pJowhVEKa2s8C3n2RtVElZNS5zoUJ4AvPusMLs_BjIt5a2YErm1LutHBvXl1QnkG6T9V6TbCbE1NMx5dul0hz8xg6ns9k8xPCVFXqkSvYXnEj5PFrXKhoJcYE6j4sZspKHOShvw/s640/Slew%20Preakness.jpg" style="clear: left; display: block; float: left; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmpfdu9kHcH_KADrSYen3woaRLxNbxPMNUMyA3koBWuK5f9LfNkU2pJowhVEKa2s8C3n2RtVElZNS5zoUJ4AvPusMLs_BjIt5a2YErm1LutHBvXl1QnkG6T9V6TbCbE1NMx5dul0hz8xg6ns9k8xPCVFXqkSvYXnEj5PFrXKhoJcYE6j4sZspKHOShvw/s400/Slew%20Preakness.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. <div><br /><div>I write handicapping analysis of generally Graded Stake horse races. I started handicapping in 1986 when I spent a summer in Saratoga training to operate nuclear reactors in the sleepy town called Ballston Spa. I lived just blocks from the track. In the mid 1970's, like a lot of kids who grew up in that era, my only access to horse racing was older relatives, ABC Wide World of Sports and Sports Illustrated Magazine. I had an Aunt, my dear Aunt Rose, who would baby sit me from time to time on Saturdays while my dad worked volunteering at a nearby Boys and Girls Club, and she was my first contact with the sport. I remember sitting at my older cousins house in 1977 watching <b>Seattle Slew</b> win the <i>Preakness</i> at a second cousin's first communion party. I loved reading Sports Illustrated, an era before the instant access internet, and I read and was fascinated by Formula One, Professional Boxing and Horse Racing. It was a simple time in a young boys life. </div><div><br /></div><div>In 1986, I was a young man, not quite 20, living in a paradise-like Saratoga (Jumel Place, just blocks from the Oklahoma Training Track.) The highlight that summer was seeing Sylvester Stallone with a bevy of women surrounding him. I worked a lot of mid and night shifts and I would grab the Daily Race Form with my breakfast and handicap. It was like a crossword puzzle to me and the next day I'd see if I was any good. Gambling was never really my thing, but I liked to predict.</div><div><br /></div><div>Not much has changed in almost 40 years. I hate the term "tout," a label which is what bloggers like me get pigeonholed into. I'm touting no one. My handicaps and my bet constructions are offered free of charge, I have never made any attempt to monetize the blog, and all I'm doing is carefully unpacking a race each week at a level that the track handicapper doesn't have the time to do. Morning Lines and Track Handicappers miss signs, miss over and underlays, because they are busy, because they are surrounded by biases, perceived or not. One race a week I get into the mitochondrial and look for how the field should finish. I offer a bet suggestion on a simple exacta only basis, and the rest is up to you. </div><div><br /></div><div>I find my blog to be a relaxing therapy to the hustle and bustle of my job. Operations at a publicly traded company is high stakes, high expectations. Handicapping is an escape for a few hours each week. Horse racing is like a time machine back to Aunt Rosie's couch on 19th Street.
</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyways, I like to build these post race analysis looks at my handicapping, primarily for two reasons: What did I miss or get right in that race and who should I quietly be watching for in an upcoming race. I will tell you I have had great success watching horses finish 4th or 5th up the track in one race, but showing me something with late turn of foot and stride, and finding them as overlays when most think of them as underlays. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><i>
The Honey Fox</i> G3: Fillies and Mares 4 YO and Up over Firm Turf: 1 Mile. GP.
<iframe height="750" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRJWLRo9P-NpWrYLveHZyWDrDDBQqqdSNHee5Vy3X512vYicXa3-vq_a_NeHGxp5thBAmYC77u-yOd8/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Honey Fox </i>G3</div><div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X0dPpMyBgZQ" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>Race Chart</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ4Ly6s_Sr7ueAPjRRI9Qj_JewQIUVH06zXeM2nrS0OKkcDSv6miAk-9NzsgGSBnbtX9lABsZtXBckq4Hwha3t1NJQFch6aKO2gfYYwg6cHXY0ZHbRG6gW-BtxKt5CdDVk050fKxvj9QVQHRheA_rYrj0uOoMoLLqEin-P-tuNkHmyHlxEqozVfkeyBw/s1198/Race%20Chart%20Honey%20Fox.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="967" data-original-width="1198" height="517" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ4Ly6s_Sr7ueAPjRRI9Qj_JewQIUVH06zXeM2nrS0OKkcDSv6miAk-9NzsgGSBnbtX9lABsZtXBckq4Hwha3t1NJQFch6aKO2gfYYwg6cHXY0ZHbRG6gW-BtxKt5CdDVk050fKxvj9QVQHRheA_rYrj0uOoMoLLqEin-P-tuNkHmyHlxEqozVfkeyBw/w640-h517/Race%20Chart%20Honey%20Fox.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>I identified <b>Princess Theorem</b> and <b>Faith In Humanity (Fr) </b>pre race. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Faith In Humanity (Fr)</b> Notes:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU6Tp4hk57J-Eq9YuhrPqzKQ2ovDHIieW6XOCI7f5ZFuebuEgpANtdFniIOFcdrwVdNI4PGA1qPSVuMWHmwXLJa1PgRIQ8d3uZuAfonjClmXWNG46j26ZMm4jIdreVkpJN2IWdQca94F3Mo9ug0Fxnh6fm1a56GzQDDPq0aJPofFHHx5jTm95rc0j6UQ/s567/faith%20in%20humanity%20notes.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="441" data-original-width="567" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU6Tp4hk57J-Eq9YuhrPqzKQ2ovDHIieW6XOCI7f5ZFuebuEgpANtdFniIOFcdrwVdNI4PGA1qPSVuMWHmwXLJa1PgRIQ8d3uZuAfonjClmXWNG46j26ZMm4jIdreVkpJN2IWdQca94F3Mo9ug0Fxnh6fm1a56GzQDDPq0aJPofFHHx5jTm95rc0j6UQ/s320/faith%20in%20humanity%20notes.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div>I really liked her early speed and her post position and thought she'd come out of gate and throttle this race. Sharp works, with two bullets at 5f in late February. Of course, being a Brown horse his stats off the layoff are good. And finally, she was a grade 3 (class neutral) horse. I still think <b>Speak of the Devil (Fr) </b>is the better horse, but not yesterday, and she herself was coming off a layoff since last June. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Princess Theorem</b> Notes:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhWqUwLmixF4khFw6nOUxUTz8ZSm-jmzlgUYwHeL1j4hDTRchuaP2uPOdcWRdILla3ONK8ihNwFgow6ZaznrBhpHYyEGtqb6sUCbeESvFKVC11GTy03TaNJz0YoeZ2_5Fbh_R_bs9ueX4NgYv71hqWcKIbjkwhRHiJ6_-Xi8YaLvQDqfn4mI-2EroAFg/s496/princess%20race%20notes.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="496" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhWqUwLmixF4khFw6nOUxUTz8ZSm-jmzlgUYwHeL1j4hDTRchuaP2uPOdcWRdILla3ONK8ihNwFgow6ZaznrBhpHYyEGtqb6sUCbeESvFKVC11GTy03TaNJz0YoeZ2_5Fbh_R_bs9ueX4NgYv71hqWcKIbjkwhRHiJ6_-Xi8YaLvQDqfn4mI-2EroAFg/s320/princess%20race%20notes.png" width="320" /></a></div>When you are looking for value that that fill the second spot in an exacta, this is exactly what you are looking for. I didn't think the mare could win, but late speed and a last race win at the distance and over same surface is a recency nod I can't ignore. -2 Class note is to me she's a 25K OC horse, not a Grade 3. <div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Look at :23 second final quarter in last race.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtP9vviqXu4XNHxdNG_zykBBHSA0EEaE32T6E1D0QEbDwo8C2h6yHEj8c36KzQf7JfPcfF6FKNQGspdy-bztwtot6dH4pFnhJiGbzCxAX3GusV1fMuSleSpSfQnGmiznbGfllmjf2GY-BudzVcGOK0V5PCeUFH0SvL6KiU6J9gpwxrAYCto-fxdg3LIA/s1807/Screenshot%202023-03-05%20094539.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="112" data-original-width="1807" height="40" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtP9vviqXu4XNHxdNG_zykBBHSA0EEaE32T6E1D0QEbDwo8C2h6yHEj8c36KzQf7JfPcfF6FKNQGspdy-bztwtot6dH4pFnhJiGbzCxAX3GusV1fMuSleSpSfQnGmiznbGfllmjf2GY-BudzVcGOK0V5PCeUFH0SvL6KiU6J9gpwxrAYCto-fxdg3LIA/w640-h40/Screenshot%202023-03-05%20094539.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div>Yes, she finished Show, but could have easily finished Place. The $1 Trifecta with her paid $373.80. If you would have taken my top four and boxed them, you win the Tri. The $2 Exacta, my juice, paid $48.60. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm not touting, I'm analyzing at a level that no track handicapper could possibly because there are not enough hours in the day. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1baUbDM5jnfKEMR9l6KhCjKsoZ0N0o6lGkfj-vEkG3Od96OKNbaVXK2fjwVl_Juuulps8ZjCMCZGqYhVAf3WI7Xp4Licur80TN1-piONyPwS_nefxS3CgVGPRaeEL6z-JRv9opJP-AVTJT_6Z3njtkVOhhADJz8s2WBwkCkJsKnd8IAsC9P-dK8KSPQ/s1600/IMG_0546.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1baUbDM5jnfKEMR9l6KhCjKsoZ0N0o6lGkfj-vEkG3Od96OKNbaVXK2fjwVl_Juuulps8ZjCMCZGqYhVAf3WI7Xp4Licur80TN1-piONyPwS_nefxS3CgVGPRaeEL6z-JRv9opJP-AVTJT_6Z3njtkVOhhADJz8s2WBwkCkJsKnd8IAsC9P-dK8KSPQ/s320/IMG_0546.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Aunt Rosie</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk out! <br /><div><br /></div></div></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-57681845803212414762023-03-04T13:01:00.007-05:002023-03-04T13:09:39.836-05:00The Nomination Is In: The Honey Fox G3 and The Turk Hits the 700th Post Milestone<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJe1k11Na-dGEgWIdpQ9kaG60oOLcwHYAmWPTAbrArXwBNLEbIDLf1IkHmsKQ5Z_6tA5SOpRHAXbjpRBajbLQpDGcK4l7uXvvBiYt0VVfv-FVS5oWIHuU6I7ss6-xxTwx3lsC9hUf_7YfSloy8pNymI3IjMaAmMdJp76QgYoUkEnZwvpB7UWFEnSCg6A/s500/700%20th%20post.png" style="clear: left; display: block; float: left; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="500" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJe1k11Na-dGEgWIdpQ9kaG60oOLcwHYAmWPTAbrArXwBNLEbIDLf1IkHmsKQ5Z_6tA5SOpRHAXbjpRBajbLQpDGcK4l7uXvvBiYt0VVfv-FVS5oWIHuU6I7ss6-xxTwx3lsC9hUf_7YfSloy8pNymI3IjMaAmMdJp76QgYoUkEnZwvpB7UWFEnSCg6A/w320-h320/700%20th%20post.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. Today's post mark's a real milestone for this blogger, my 700th Post. <div><br /></div><div> So much has changed since September 2008 when I wrote my first tentative posting. In the world that was just before Twitter, Facebook hadn't fully blown up yet, and horse racing, while damaged at that point, was not the devalued product we see now. Hollywood and Arlington, two of my favorite tracks, were there and now gone, not to mention countless synthetic racing surfaces. </div><div><br /></div><div> I joined a blogging alliance, but by the time I joined it was obvious that blogging was a dinosaur medium, with long form writing being replaced by 140 characters. As Prince said, A sign of times. My blog, even in the best of days, was never highly read. My focus on handicapping pigeonholed me and limited my readership. I've stayed true to what I like to do and I've never worried about monetizing my efforts or increasing my clicks. I write what I write, and if it's read by even one person, that makes me happy.</div><div><br /></div><div> There have been moments when I considered quitting the blog. My love of horse racing perhaps hit a 30 year low at the beginning of COVID. It coincided with the death of both Poppa and Pops, my Father in Law and Father, in a span of weeks. The world was a dark place. Racing was turned on its head, and I just lost interest. </div><div><br /></div><div>It wasn't until late last year did I start to regain my love of both blogging and horse racing. My job has become very busy, as we took our business to the publicly traded market and grown it significantly. Its put a cramp on my automotive restoration activities (slowed, not stopped) but created a need for this form of mental health: the deconstruction and decoding of past performances and race charts into betting possibilities.
Over time I've narrowed my focus even further, primarily focused on two things: Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. Also over time I dropped my son, The Little Turk, from the blog title. While my not so little 23 year old will still take horse racing road trips with me (Del Mar just before COVID), he has his own sporting interests (The Buffalo Bills, Sabres and Fantasy Football) that he is pursuing.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, The Turk remains, older, still bald, but more importantly, a wise old handicapper who has created positive ROI over a long period of time by focusing on the fundamentals of handicapping, avoiding the parts of the conditions book I'm not good at, and decoupling handicapping from Bet Construction, with an eye towards winning battles and ignoring the war. </div><div><br /></div><div>Without too much fanfare, just like the last 699 posts, I present to you my thoughts on <i>The Honey Fox</i>, a 1 mile turf affair at Gulfstream on <i>Fountain of Youth </i>day. I made a rare foray back onto dirt as well this weekend, and my thoughts on the<i> <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-nomination-is-in-santa-anita.html">Santa Anita Handicap</a></i><a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-nomination-is-in-santa-anita.html"> can be found here as well</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<i>The Honey Fox</i> G3: 1 Mile over Fast Turf at GP
<iframe height="650" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTD-PSUPttpwJk7cnT7NFnoSu77xLCc8XtaINnsdRoq6pp0Pq0inTGLe7s03NwsP2cBTsIGykUc4UaN/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>I'll keep my betting simple today. I think Chad Brown's <b>Speak of the Devil (Fr)</b> is a beast: 8 of 11 Distance Exacta, 9 of 16 Turf Exacta, 4 wins in last 9. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'll single <b>Speak of the Devil (Fr) </b>with some of the value horses on the board at post time. Nothing fancy, just workmanlike betting that is rooted in fundamental math. </div><div><br /></div><div>If you want to really hunt for value, consider adding <b>Faith in Humanity (Fr)</b> to the win spot. 4 YO, also trained by Brown, will have the rail and great early speed. <b>White Frost </b>will also get some attention from savvy bettors: Last time out winner over this surface at this distance, the Mott trained <b>Candy Ride</b> mare is four of four in the Turf exactas lifetime. 2nd off a long layoff that included all of 2022. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends! Turk out. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-22227801829051818282023-03-03T09:32:00.002-05:002023-03-04T10:22:27.875-05:00The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap <p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip24xT4Bej9-MfnNjxwMd2tnRJ-5Y_4KxErHFb2mGUv5Er-EMrcnpwMtodQjkqueK8WDdlVs9rsJuDO6JjhO8J-HKz8tnNPSxfI0URd6znt1zAHcbiTI_s_b2fnCBtj3eVyEJh5SsLWUQaasM2nrmzm34CFd6y8aMGpQsTRsmUdLy-bNI4OzIIyUhDPw/s800/Defunded.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="800" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip24xT4Bej9-MfnNjxwMd2tnRJ-5Y_4KxErHFb2mGUv5Er-EMrcnpwMtodQjkqueK8WDdlVs9rsJuDO6JjhO8J-HKz8tnNPSxfI0URd6znt1zAHcbiTI_s_b2fnCBtj3eVyEJh5SsLWUQaasM2nrmzm34CFd6y8aMGpQsTRsmUdLy-bNI4OzIIyUhDPw/w400-h268/Defunded.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Defunded: Benoit </td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome Friends to <a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/">The Turk Blog</a>, and thank you to the good people at <a href="http://www.thorofan.com/Module/Board/Board">The Thorofan</a> for having me today. My blog primarily focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. I've handicapped dirt races for the better part of 35 years, so I'm capable, it's just not my blog's primary focus. I hope you give me a read and good luck if you are playing.<p></p><p>Classic Distance racing always a bit of a wildcard for veteran older horses: 11 starts for this field at that distance, 2 wins and 4 Place/Shows. Tomlinson's, always a bit murky, have <b>Hopper</b> 372 and next closest 50 points lower. That's a good spread for comparing Tomlinson's but is <b>Hopper</b> the pick?. Focus on the key metrics every race when building your base handicap: Class, Current Form, Early and Late Speed, Distances, Track Record, Trainer/Rider stats, In the Money and Wins over surface. If you hit the key variables in the base handicap, it puts you in a good position to focus on the nuance during bet construction: pace, trainer intentions, post positions, tote board odds. </p><p>Ultimately you will grade yourself on a few metrics: Did I make a return on my betting capital? Was my handicap any good? Does my analysis of the Past Performances justify continued betting on that surface, that age range, that track? Did I have fun? I'm no gambling whale. I'm just a nobody who likes horses, like's to write about race handicapping, and talks about himself in the third person. All that said, I do this because it brings me joy and I have fun. I think in modern times there are far easier ways to make money in sports betting, so if you are reading this, I hope you agree with me.</p><p>Let's get after it!</p><p><i>The Santa Anita Handicap</i> G1: 1 1/4 Miles for 4 YO and UP</p>
<iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRciRhtvmv9605382XxhHvnmbXpJs0TG3zHkwdPYHCOi1Yo1Bcbu2E02iUPWuSeTL4Kaxx_wnbpB3Qv/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>I don't want to spend too much time on video as I don't think there are many races relevant for current form with this field.</div><div><br /></div><div><i>The San Pasqual </i>Grade 2: 1 1/8 Fast Dirt SA 28 January 2023</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QYdYpcvjW20" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Pegasus World Cup</i> G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt GP; 28 January 2023</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F0iK_1jJZgg" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe> <div><br /></div><div> <i>The San Antonio</i> Grade 2: 1 1/16 Miles over Fast Dirt SA: 26 December 2022</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
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<div><br /></div><div>So what do we make of it? I think you could legitimately make a case for the top 7 in my base handicap to win. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Defunded</b> is a Grade 1 horse and gives nothing regarding class. Good mix of early tactical and late speed. Training well for Baffert after trip to GP in late January. J Hernandez is up and 26% winner this meet and him and Baffert at SA over rolling year are 35% winners. 5 of 6 in the money at Santa Anita, 10 of 14 in the money over fast dirt, 9 of 14 lifetime exacta finish, one classic distance start, last year's <i>Gold Cup <b>G1</b></i> at SA, finishing Place to <b>There Goes Harvard</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Hollywood (Ha!) Gold Cup</i> G1: 1 1/14 Miles Fast Dirt SA: 30 May 2022</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
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<div><br /></div><div>A five horse field with lousy pace scenario is no reason to change thinking. Different race, different field, different point in horse form.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Proxy </b>is a fringe Grade 1 contender, winning the Grade 1 <i>Clark</i> last year. Matches or comes close to <b>Defunded's </b>class level. Solid early speed but excellent late turn of foot. First SA start. Only second attempt at Distance for this millionaire. Pace, and how we feel about the pace scenario, will play a key role, but I do like his far outside start and his ability to be sitting midpack for critical part of race. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Newgrange</b> and <b>Stilleto Boy </b>form my next grouping. <b>Newgrange </b>gets Dettori up (21% winner 85 starts) this meet and enters off last race win in the <i>San Pasqual</i> G2. Fast Early, decent late speed. <b>Violence </b>colt is solid Grade 2 and gives up one rating in class to the best here. 4 YO and already $750K earnings. 5 wins in 8 starts, 3 wins in 3 starts at SA , 7 of 8 in the money over fast dirt. Pay attention to tote board. </div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Stilleto Boy</b> is the proverbial "hanging around the hoop" colt, putting up $1.4 MM in earnings with 3 wins but 15 of 20 in the money. Owner/Trainer Moger's not afraid to take this <b>Shackleford</b> colt go head to head with anyone. Dangerous. Fast early/solid late speed. Kent Desormeaux up as Mike Smith jumps to Hopper. 1 win in 6 SA Starts but 5 of 6 in the money.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>There Goes Harvard</b>, a 5 YO Mike McCarthy conditioned horse had a turf to G1 dirt win last year and tries again after going in a 1 mile Turf run at SA in early February. Sharp work on 18 February. 2 Classic Distance starts, 2 exacta finishes. 6 starts at SA, 6 in the money finishes. Solid, not spectacular. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Warrant </b>gives up two class ranks and is a solid G3 runner. Cox and Prat are 39% winners rolling year outside of SA. Prat's meet has been forgettable at 11%. Place by a head in last year's race edition, a lifetime best Beyer for what that's worth. 9 of 13 lifetime starts in exacta. </div><div><br /></div><div>And finally <b>Hopper</b>, a 4 YO in 5th start, is very very fast early but seems to be in deep waters here. Started on rail in <i>San Pasqual</i> and yielded late presumably after shortest run. A huge wildcard, does he rabbit or does Smith, up for first time on him, wait? </div><div><br /></div><div>6 YO <b>Heywoods Beach</b> will be back early and can close fast late. Really comes down to how this one plays out. </div><div><br /></div><div>I don't think this will be a race that the best horses can't manage the pace. <b>Defunded</b> and <b>Proxy</b> can both manage the speed tactics, as well as <b>Newgrange</b> and<b> Stilleto Boy</b>. I do think Baffert will send <b>Hopper</b> early for <b>Defunded</b> to target later. Some other late speed to consider is the 5 YO <b>Curlin</b> trained by Joe Sharp, <b>Scarlet Fusion</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'll be paying attention to the tote board and looking for value in my exacta. I may look at <b>Defunded</b> and/or <b>Proxy</b> OVER Value: <b>There Goes Harvard</b>, <b>Warrant</b>, <b>Haywoods Beach</b>, <b>Scarlet Fusion, </b>possibly <b>Proxy.</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>If I single <b>Defunded</b> it's a $2 bet for $10 and if I hedge <b>Proxy </b>in both spots its a $18 bet. I'll be clear and place the $10 bet. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk Out!</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-23929653534373615372023-02-18T11:53:00.000-05:002023-02-18T11:53:08.228-05:00The Nomination Is In: The Fairgrounds Stakes G3
<p> </p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e6W0nJUE4TqsOaa0nSd8BjD2QoeNiMiI253VxqIaX8Qxx9GF2265df2GH2yAG8pAgdkrtw3vZRpeiCsKky-rUWqMIq1QIq9LjyUeWdCa6j8JqZbrnDWcK4QIKcMzOFXJ6testkkLXqfEshxrbakqmrs4w8cU3hFck9LrjcVeodOkl3zMsMQ3j21TqA/s630/GENTLE-SOUL-COLONEL-ER-BRADLEY.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="630" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e6W0nJUE4TqsOaa0nSd8BjD2QoeNiMiI253VxqIaX8Qxx9GF2265df2GH2yAG8pAgdkrtw3vZRpeiCsKky-rUWqMIq1QIq9LjyUeWdCa6j8JqZbrnDWcK4QIKcMzOFXJ6testkkLXqfEshxrbakqmrs4w8cU3hFck9LrjcVeodOkl3zMsMQ3j21TqA/w400-h286/GENTLE-SOUL-COLONEL-ER-BRADLEY.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Gentle Soul: Hodges Photography</td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on Turf handicapping and exacta bet construction. That handsome six year old is <b>Gentle Soul</b>, my chalk in today's handicapping exercise, <i>The Fairgrounds Stakes</i> G3. <div><br /></div><div>My handicapping has been a bit cool lately. It happens. Don't judge success over a short sample size, positive or negative. When you handicap, you are preparing who you think has the best opportunity to win, setting win odds for the field. Horses don't read spreadsheets. The base handicap is just that, a pace neutral view of the race on firm turf. Pace is clearly a significant factor and I capture those thoughts in my bet construction. What does that mean? The best horse over a route of grass is still the best horse and the Base Handicap will reflect that, but pace, post position, turf conditions, field size, recent form or trips, expected odds as set by the public (and not the Morning Line), these factors seep into bet construction. Two sides of a coin. So when I say my handicapping has been cool, when I review the results, I see that my bet construction more often than not is what was faulty, my failing or flukes, that matters not. </div><div><br /></div><div>I've been handicapping for just short of 37 years. I know I can handicap. I seen just about every sort of pace, trip, angle that can present itself. ROI is really the only measure of one's betting philosophy and general competence. Do the things you do as a bettor return you money over a long period of time? Do anyone reading this blog, the answer is generally no, for the simple reason that the best bettors are focused on what works for them, the angles they work and their own investment strategy. Develop what works for you. I didn't land on Turf/Exacta out of thin air, I'm good at it. My ROI was the best at it. I know my ROI with Dirt 3 YOs trends negative and I know certain tracks where I slay it (Kentucky Downs, Santa Anita, Arlington (RIP)) and where I'm atrocious (Saratoga dirt). Do what works.</div><div><br /></div><div>Let's get after this!<div><br /></div><iframe height="550" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSaAabcq_b1NrAEZVlwhrk2A4QqnAvcJ4oWb7vxkm36D9wvDnqxIRCieGRWV3NyJS_MKgzg_2MXW8lq/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="550"></iframe></div>
<b>
I just want to look at The <i>Col. E.R. Bradley Stakes</i> video to see </b>Gentle Soul late kick <b>Two Emmys</b>.<div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Col. Bradley </i>99K; FG 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf, 21 Jan 2023
(best video I could find truncates the race to the stretch.) </div><div><div><br /><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QlBYPy9UZSg" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>The 4 YO <b>Tiz the Bomb</b> may ultimately be the most talented turf runner in this field, but the focus as a 3 YO was dirt glory, including an uninspired <i>Kentucky Derby</i> at 31-1. McPeek's runner showed great turf promise as a 2 YO Winning the Grade 2 <i>Bourbon</i> at KEE and Place in the<i> Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf</i>. Hernandez was up that day at Del Mar as he is today. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Breeders' Cup J. Turf </i>G1; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; 5 Nov 2021 Del Mar</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N_1od1PLa68" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>So what to do with this?</div><div><br /></div><div>Experienced turf runners like <b>Two Emmys</b> deserve the chalk and the bettor's support. The reality is he wins this race 1-2 times every five times its run all things equal. 8 of 10 in the money at FG, 3 of 4 in the money at the distance, 14 of 19 in the money over turf. I consider him class neutral. His tactical early speed and his inside post should position him well. </div><div><br /></div><div>6 YO gelded <b>Gentle Soul</b> makes only his 11th start and 6th on turf where he has 3 wins in 5 tries. Good early speed and the second best late speed of the group. A great late kick won him his career best Beyer over the Fairgrounds turf. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Tiz the Bomb</b> again is only 4 and has shown exceptional promise on Turf and not so much on dirt. It makes sense for McPeek to bring him back to grass and be patient with him. His third start on grass since July, I toss the first effort and his last back in August was an improvement. Sent to the farm to freshen and then consistent training at FG since mid July. McPeek's numbers off this layoff are only 6% on 18 tries and his only 7% in 71 Graded Stakes starts. You can't watch that ride in <b>Breeders' Cup</b> and not think he'll find his turf form again. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Pixelate</b>, <b>Bay Street Money</b> and<b> Corelli</b> are the only other considerations for the exacta. <b>Corelli</b> has the best late speed and his outside post should position him well. Both <b>Pixelate</b> and <b>Bay Street Mone</b>y are veterans, with 27 and 16 careers starts. <b>Pixelate</b> has the biggest bank account in the field but not much more than <b>Tiz the Bomb</b> and requiring many more races and 2 more years. All are making slight jumps in class. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm discounting last year's winner 35-1 <b>Calvary Charge </b>who hasn't won since. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm going to single <b>Tiz the Bomb</b> and put <b>Gentle Soul,</b> <b>Two Emmys</b>, <b>Pixelate,</b> <b>Bay Street Money</b> and <b>Corelli</b> in the Place spot, a $2 bet for $10. Maybe I'll trim it to $8 but we'll see.</div><div><br /></div><div>I'd be remiss to not remember my first cousin, <a href="https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/name/joseph-toarmino-obituary?id=47096971">Joe Toarmino</a>, who passed away this week. Joe was born to my dear Aunt Rose, the woman who first introduced horses to me. Joe was a horse player and loved his annual trips to Saratoga. I only saw him once a year, but every conversation involved horse racing. Joe leaves behind a devoted wife, Colleen and three wonderful daughters, Alicia, Elizabeth and Andrea, brothers Russ, Michael and Christopher and sisters Kara, Peggy, Patty and Jane and others.</div><div><br /></div><div> </div><div>Rest in Peace in Joe. Cash those tickets.</div><div><br /></div><div>Turk Out</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-14064470774258563952023-02-05T10:10:00.004-05:002023-02-05T10:10:45.166-05:00The Nomination Is In: The San Marcos Grade 3 at Santa Anita
<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR0JJec1E2xjIkx1qc7_WNIcMWK-8uDGl5hS2mw0ZW6abVgJeC4t4ZbM8o75WHMLMblZzTCz49qWGpcmbAGKifKheUsZr4Rd8PhFMDXtb32wG8najKKLtkDR2SArjK6AmDbn_KTMMgqAYDky8iRKr82lrFGzC9-xHGyawIFWV6hwcyIJ4L0Tz9E3DoRA/s1200/IMG_5009.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="1200" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR0JJec1E2xjIkx1qc7_WNIcMWK-8uDGl5hS2mw0ZW6abVgJeC4t4ZbM8o75WHMLMblZzTCz49qWGpcmbAGKifKheUsZr4Rd8PhFMDXtb32wG8najKKLtkDR2SArjK6AmDbn_KTMMgqAYDky8iRKr82lrFGzC9-xHGyawIFWV6hwcyIJ4L0Tz9E3DoRA/w400-h240/IMG_5009.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where we focus on handicapping and exacta betting of Turf Horse Races. <p></p><p>Every year, when I'm mentally engaged, and that engagement has returned for me, I enjoy the progression of races , and the horse athletes. It helps your handicapping tremendously to follow the flow of the Conditions Book and where the Trainers bring their runners next. Getting second and third looks at these horses really allows you to project ahead and find those overlays that every horse player needs to make up for the inevitable misses. One I've been tracking is that beautiful Grey/Roan pictured, <b>The Grey Wizard (Ire)</b>. Motion and Velazquez have a lot of horse, only 2 races into the geldings 4 YO campaign, and already the resume is impressive: A Place in a G3 and G2 and a very impressive 1 1/4 Turf Allowance win last time out here at Santa Anita (video below). If you play the horses long enough you get to watch 3-4 year careers at best, and that's one reason I like turf racing as they tend to race longer. My favorite part of the sport is watching horses like <b>Dicey Mo Chara</b> succeed, and horses like <b>The Grey Wizard </b>to emerge. Each race is an opportunity for that, and the progression these horses will take through the calendar, across the meets, just adds to it. It's a great sport if it can ever be managed in a more unified fashion. Anyways, I leave those sorts of topics for more professional writers, and I stick to my thing. Let's get after it!</p><p><i>The San Marcos</i> Grade 3: 1 1/4 Miles on Downhill Turf Course for 4 YO and Up</p><p>
<iframe height="560" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTnyndgfXrg8HCFW3s1-lYYJsMuj6wcgx1KKh1GdrA_nt8OCLAc-_XzFXfP4boo5g7vLeXKbP4KSYUV/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="560"></iframe></p><p>I've added a new column to my analysis beginning with this race. As I've always done, I adjust the Morning Line to percentage which includes track takeout, the ever increasing tack takeout, and from there I adjust the ML to 100% by lowering each horse by the 33% takeout that the ML's add to the win odds. I'm trying to find apples and apples with the fair line, and while this method isn't perfect, it's helpful to me to make this conversion and look for the inconsistencies. Expect the <a href="https://www.santaanita.com/racing-information">Turf to be firm</a> and the <a href="https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@5324477/historic">weather good</a>. I don't see any threat to turf conditions degrading. </p><p>Let's take a look at some relevant recent video.</p><p><i>John Henry Turf Cup</i> G2: SA 1 1/14 Miles Firm; 1 Oct 2022</p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/g2wTXWe_Zxs" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><div><br /></div><div><i>San Gabriel</i> G2; SA 1 1/8 Firm; 26 December 2022</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jvjUK6ptjWE" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Allowance $73K N1X</i>; SA 1 1/4 Miles good turf; 20 January 23</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Xgdv8TYzpM0" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Hollywood Turf Cup G2</i>; Del Mar 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf; 25 November 2022</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wP__Zv934Yg" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><b>Masteroffoxhounds</b> is my chalk, albeit light. The win on this course at this distance in the <i>John Henry Turf Cup </i>gives him credentials. Conditioner D'Mato and Rispoli, Up combine for 31% win rate at SA and Risoli was up for the <i>John Henry</i>. 2 wins last 13 starts. 7 of 7 in the money at SA, 4 of 5 in the money at the distance.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Dicey Mo Chara (GB)</b> is one of the Turk's favorite runners in training currently. $6,800 price tag with $430,000 in career earnings. 5 of 8 in the money at SA. Powell and Hernandez, up, win 39% of the time together at SA. Hernandez is a 29% winner in 94 mounts this meet. Loved his last out <i>San Gabriel</i> which I broke down in this blog post. </div><div><br /></div><div>I already fan boy'd <b>The Grey Wizard (Ire)</b>. At 4 YO we could be looking at a star, but I'm not ready to crown him yet. I think he's a legitimate win candidate here and will legitimately be overlooked by betting public in the top two spots. That's a value proposition that I like to take a swing at when I see it. Compare his allowance time (2:01 3/5s) over good turf to <b>Masteroffoxhounds</b> sub 2 min classic distance on firm turf and that equates to multiple lengths back. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Avenue</b>, <b>Say the Word</b> and <b>Cash Equity (Fr)</b> round out my potential Exacta players. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div> I'm shading down <b>Prince Abama (Ire)</b> at my own peril. 0 wins in 6 SA starts, no starts at the distance, but training sharper lately. I just don't put alot of stock in the <i>Hollywood (why do they do this?) Turf Cup</i> at marathon distance. One thing to note is the D'Amato/Prat 25% wins in 53 starts at SA but also Prat's current meet 7%. </div><div><br /></div><div>What to do with this:</div><div><br /></div><div>I'm leaning towards not overthinking this and going with $2 Exact with 4 OVER 7-9-10-8-6 for $10.</div><div>I think that's a mid probable, high reward value proposition especially if someone can shock for Place. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends, Turk Out! </div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-2881898699569830492023-01-28T09:38:00.008-05:002023-01-28T09:38:56.425-05:00The Nomination Is In: The Pegasus World Cup Turf International G1 at GP<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJy32AQFUgWSXz8r9YuYzy3edKddqNPZxoGAkkC-j7fDyYRt9ip4UQkTkaWVjXnWZzhp3vs5kHLekDT9pVbNLqUPfoWbnm7tB_MkoNkfe2RInEI05YnbFM8ub1Y4_OB5LZnM_CQqUcOx1_Z21QEnMWJgLNv7zL1Gq57g0LV3so3c_ImGy7tSFXjOYxg/s371/IVAR.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="297" data-original-width="371" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJy32AQFUgWSXz8r9YuYzy3edKddqNPZxoGAkkC-j7fDyYRt9ip4UQkTkaWVjXnWZzhp3vs5kHLekDT9pVbNLqUPfoWbnm7tB_MkoNkfe2RInEI05YnbFM8ub1Y4_OB5LZnM_CQqUcOx1_Z21QEnMWJgLNv7zL1Gq57g0LV3so3c_ImGy7tSFXjOYxg/w400-h320/IVAR.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ivar: Photo Bloodhorse</td></tr></tbody></table> Welcome back to The Turk Blog, where I previously handicapped Race 11, the <i><a href="http://theturkandlittleturk.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-nomination-is-in-500000-pegasus.html">Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3</a> </i>and today we target Race 12, the<i> Pegasus World Cup Turf Cup G1. </i><br /><p></p><p> So much nuance on the past performances, especially for older runners over routes of grass. My base handicap tries to ignore the pace scenario and focus on ranking who the best horses are, in order, and then a fair line is set. The fair line is set to 100% while the Morning Line is calibrated to track takeout, ever increasing track takeout. I don't get hung up on the percentages too much, but the ordering of the horses and where I think they may finish relative to an exacta bet, the focal point of this blog. So much nuance with this group. That handsome fella to the left is Ivar, the b7 year old son of <b>Agnes Gold (JPN)</b> from <b>Sunday Silence</b>. They really can bred the turf runners in South America. <br /></p><p>I am just going to post my base handicap for now. I spent so much time building it I ran out of time to prattle on about the video I pulled on many of them.</p><p><i>The Pegasus World Cup Turf International</i> G1; 1 1/8 Miles on expected Firm Turf for 4 YO and Up
<iframe height="650" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQyUy-nBXaJmx_9jixnJyGpCyymTd9FW55e8O0iFosKwVOwJtuIcs-OkydBgNFtqJuZE2cVmeoi6Pmp/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="525"></iframe></p><p><br /></p><p>I'm going to go deep with this one, taking my Win and Place horses into the exacta: My initial thoughts just to memorialize it is: $2 Exacta: 10/12 OVER 10-12-6-2-7-9 for $20.</p><p>Enjoy the racing friends!</p><p>Turk Out.</p>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6502709072678983797.post-54145503466541611312023-01-25T21:59:00.007-05:002023-01-25T21:59:58.522-05:00The Nomination Is In: The $500,000 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3 at Gulfstream Park<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7pl0x4X60XqB8YKUtoTR32mQUaqoKlk9PhX1rJteMU-0KTSXxhXzqBA7vDZLRX1SM4dgspTyNj23ZfRG3XtBvekxsw4nYlGayBP-vQZU5-1c_KzTNvPKMQqzIj2YDh3nxZPu3Cls0moDIRKwfCL7T47AMYCYo-TsX50AV6jzEaraD2l0-fphjPMdEig/s912/pegasus-world-cup-logo.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="912" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7pl0x4X60XqB8YKUtoTR32mQUaqoKlk9PhX1rJteMU-0KTSXxhXzqBA7vDZLRX1SM4dgspTyNj23ZfRG3XtBvekxsw4nYlGayBP-vQZU5-1c_KzTNvPKMQqzIj2YDh3nxZPu3Cls0moDIRKwfCL7T47AMYCYo-TsX50AV6jzEaraD2l0-fphjPMdEig/w400-h288/pegasus-world-cup-logo.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Welcome friends to The Turk blog, where we focus on turf racing, handicapping and exacta building. My focus is narrow by choice. I've handicapped for decades, high volume, and after all those years, turf racing emerged as my passion, and I especially like the 4 YO and Up group. Perhaps it my European roots. I love analyzing lots of data and big fields, unlocking the handicap into actionable information and occasionally finding gems that are undervalued by the betting public. <p></p><p>I think it also fits my introverted personality to gravitate to a sport that has seen much better times, and gravitate within that sport to less popular athletes and less popular races. I do this for me. I'm humbled and appreciate when what I do is read and someone appreciates it, but I do this for the love of older horses with a great late turn of foot, running over a route of grass. That simple. It'd hard to believe but sometime in the next month I will reach 700 total blog posts since my first on 21 September 2008. The milestone post to me is just a testament to my dedication to a sport that lets me down regularly: Hollywood and Arlington Park's closing, the throttling of race dates for Kentucky Downs, the drug controversies, it saps me. I was an enormous Tour de France fan but the sport killed my love. I've never let horse racing kill horse racing for me, but it's tried. Luckily I'm an optimist who doesn't believe that Twitter is real life, that political differences shouldn't divide us and that race relations and opportunities for historically discriminated people have improved greatly since I was born in the 60's. A $500,000 Grade 3 turf race. These are the fun days in racing, let's get after this!</p><p><br /></p>
The <i>Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Cup</i> G3; 1 1/16 Miles at Gulfstream Park<div><br /></div><div>
<iframe height="650" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vToyfLdj5qT3r1f_ldYVW_U9GmM-KdSLFEQKoihg5c7K5Jg_q4097duWr7y9Fcc-jfeA9zfSZ8UKC30/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="525"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>I would have liked this one with a full 11 horse field, but you get what you get. These 8 I have broken into a top heavy top three, a middle three with at least two that could get to the Place spot in my exacta, and and two I'm tossing and I feel pretty safe about that. That gives me a base handicap that lines up pretty close with the Morning Line (which I don't look at until my handicap is done). That's not a good thing. If this was a N3X or OC60K early race I'd most likely not spend the time on bet construction, but the handle will be big and its worth a shot at it. </div><div><br /></div><div>Boxing my top 4 for a $2 bet would cost $24. Simple, except it offers a really good chance to take $24 and turn it into $24 or worse. The risk-reward isn't great. I do like the idea of betting my Top 3 and singling <b>Lady Rockstar</b> in the Place spot, a $2 bet for $6. I like that and I like the value. Do I ignore <b>Lady Goddess</b>? Hard decision when you are hunting for big value. Hmmm. Let's dive in.</div><div><br /></div><div>First of all the <a href="https://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing-information/" target="_blank">Turf was listed today, Wednesday 25 January, as Firm</a>. <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+gulfstream+park&rlz=1C1ONGR_enUS999US999&oq=&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j69i59j35i39j0i67j46i131i199i433i465i512j0i131i433i457i512j0i402l2j0i67l2.4060j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8" target="_blank">Looking at the weather</a>, I don't see that much precipitation that could change that. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Shantisara (Ire)</b>, Chad Brown's 5 YO Mare , is in my top spot in light chalk. Her best efforts, Grade 1's at KEE two and three races back, represented best Beyers but was over yielding to good turf. Last time out over firm, was so-so as the betting favorite at 1 mile over firm KEE turf, but very mixed messages on what sort of turf she may like and in France she ran over synthetic mostly. I gave her the nod because I like her late turn of foot from an outside spot. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>The QE II Cup </i>G1; 16 Oct 2021 1 1/8 over Yielding Turf at KEE</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HlHnXEXHJco" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Only two starts in 2022.Vanned off after the <i>Jenny Wiley</i> G1 at KEE where she Placed. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
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<div><br /></div><div>This is second race back since that and she's been training consistent 4f since just before XMAS. </div><div><br /></div><div>I like <b>Dalika (Ger)</b> quite a bit and can see her wiring this race. Inside post, early speed. She has wired 7 and 9 horse fields in her last three races. Beautiful Gr/Ro for Trainer Albert Stall Jr.</div><div><br /></div><div><i>The Cardinal Stakes</i> G3: 1 1/8 Miles over Firm Turf; 24 Nov 2022 CD.</div><div><br /></div>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gKIDFxoDTAo" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><b>Wakanaka (Ire) </b>comes into GP for Trainer Mott, 5 out of 7 in the money in 2022 as a 4 YO with a G2 Win and a G1 Place. 13 of 15 in the money over turf. Late Speed. Tactical. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>Fall Harvest Stakes </i>$317K; 1 Mile over Firm Turf, <i>Breeders' Cup</i> Saturday 5 Nov 2022. </div><div><br /></div><div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p-AQfsFmlG8" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Of my top three, I could make a strong case for any of them. <b>Dalika</b> and <b>Wakanaka</b> deserve top billing, but if <b>Shantisara (Ire) </b>returns to form, wow. <b> </b></div><div><br /></div><div>I really only value down to <b>Lady Rockstar (GB) </b>and <b>Queen Goddess </b>for the exacta. <b>Lady Rockstar</b> has big late speed and should get a nice outside look late. Jumping in class, 11 starts and onbly $133,000 in earnings. Last win was OC62K in June but did get Place a 1 Mile at GP on 31 Dec.</div><div><br /></div><div><i>Suwannee River Stakes </i>G3; 1 Mile Firm Turf</div><div><br /></div><div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5WxB9rNGIOg" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Queen Goddess</b> is a 5 YO Empire Maker mare, comes in off win for Trainer Michael McCarthy. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>The Robert J Frankel </i>G3: 1 1/8 Miles over Good Turf, SA 31 Dec; An embarrassingly easy trip. Training sharply. </div><div><br /></div><div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_yKdQFwu6l8" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>I already tipped my hand to what I'm thinking about, but it's Wednesday and a lot can happen between now and race time. Look for updates here or at my newly created Twitter handle, <a href="https://twitter.com/TheTurk_Blog" target="_blank">@TheTurk_Blog</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>Have fun friends. I'll be back by Friday night with my thoughts on Race 12, the $1.0 Million Dollar <i>Pegasus World Cup Turf International.</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div>Turk Out!</div>The Turkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06471195530549274322noreply@blogger.com0