The Turk: Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks

The Nomination Is In: January 21, 2012; The Grade 3 LeCompte at Fair Grounds

2012-01-21T00:30:00.002-05:00

Insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Albert Einstein.

Here we go again, another year, another Derby trail. I have this wonderful comfort zone, my happy place, where my ROI is pretty phat and I feel like I actually know what I'm doing, but I just can't leave well enough alone. With the annual return of the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll it's time I figure out these three year olds. We had a rollicking' good time last year and I hope you enjoy our Top 12 polls and the free spirited fun that goes into them. Joe Hirsch would not be amused. What Dear Ol' Mr. Hirsch would respect is the Derby Dozen folks were pretty high on Animal Kingdom last year, well most of them except this idiot bald fella who loved Archarcharch. Pictured above is Mighty Hard Spun, the 2007 winner of the LeComte. Picture by Jane and we thank her for our use.

It's most likely a wet day in the Big Easy tomorrow so keep your eyes on the changing track conditions and the tote board of course. As this is a CDI track, you'll just have to deal with the very lame track website.

Before I go to far I will admit the Turk has been in a real horse racing funk since the Breeders' Cup, which quite honestly, was not the most exciting two days of racing I've been to. Quite possibly the annual lamest excuse of an awards show was conducted last week, the Eclipse Awards, and I'm just appalled at the quality and depth of what is considered worthy champions. I really believe that a horse should have to achieve some sort of "super majority" of votes to win an award, and I don't think there is anything wrong with not having an annual winner if there isn't a deserving nominee, it shouldn't be the lesser of three evils. I was happy for winner Claire Novak, the enterprising young turf writer who is such a champion of good within our sport. Claire won for her journalism chops, her merits, not because of anything else, and Little Turk and I congratulate her. Long story short, I'm starting to feel it again. You can't fake it, and us humans, well were human, good weeks and bad. I thank my friend Steve at Wire Players who unwittingly rekindled my fire by getting the band back together again.

Let's get it on!

Thomas Amoss is a Fair Grounds Hall of Fame member and he has some pretty impressive horse in the outside spot, Shared Property, a gelded son of Scat Daddy. He's got the biggest Tomlinson for the distance (396) and is a Grade 3 winner over the fake stuff already. Amoss wins 33% of the time, in 396 starts, over dirt.

Larry Jones, the Turk's personal favorite dirt horse trainer, brings in Mr. Bowling, a modestly bred son of Istan for breeder/owner Brereton C. Jones, the former Governor of Kentucky and a righteous man who thought it was a good idea to post these in schools. 2 wins on fast dirt, a win at the distance and some very impressive work over the FG track, including a fine :58 and 4/5ths on the 9th of January and a 1:00 and 2/5ths at 5 furlongs and 1:12 4/5ths at 6 furlongs, all in past month. Robbie Albarado up.

You have to respect 22% FG winner Rosie Napravnik when teamed with 29% FG winner Al Stall Jr. The combo works at a 36% win clip at FG on 25 tries. They together bring in Stormy Atlantic's son, Seven Lively Sins. Stall wins off the 61-180 day layoff 38% of the time. Not sure if he's a finisher and looking the other way right now.

One of Zayat's coupled entries is Z Dager, coming in off a sloppy effort at FG at this distance, taking the wire at 14.7 to 1. Assmussen trains the son of Mizzen Mast. The other half of the couple is Dan and Sheila, trained by Pletcher with Johnny V up. Second effort in career, breaking maiden in December at 1 mile at Gulfstream.

Exfactor, an Exchange Rate colt (very handsome by the way), has been very consistent in 4 starts, winning three over the dirt with a a Place in his MSW first try. Won at 6f at FG last time out by a nose and a Grade 3 winner.

An Artie Shiller son, Hammers Terror, looks pretty solid working up at FG for this effort. Trainer Stidham clips along at 25% wins over dirt but only 3% winner in this angle, the 2nd effort off a 45-180 day layoff. That's gotta just be a quirk in the stats? Hard to say, but the numbers are the numbers. :59 3/5ths at 5f and :48 flat at 4f, both at FG, as well as one win at this distance on fast dirt at FG. Tomlinson on wet dirt lowest in the field.

Capetown Devil, a 3 YO gelded son of Cape Town, is also a winner at this distance over this fast dirt at FG on 30 December. 3 for 3 lifetime. Trainer David Carol 0% winner, 4 starts in graded stakes.

So what am I thinking?

I'll string some superfectas and trifectas off of my base handicap; If it gets as sloppy as it appears it may, I'll expect some scratches and we'll just slide the coupled entry of Dan and Sheila and Z Dager up as needed into the top four.

I had a good time tonight handicapping this FG card and blogging about this race. Race 9, The Louisiana Handicap is really my sweet spot, handicap division over a route of dirt, and Mr. Jim Tafel has Fast Alex cranked up already and Pletcher has Alma d' Oro. This will be a fun race, goes to post at 3:55 CT, 4:55 ET.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 San Pasqual at Santa Anita

2012-01-06T20:31:00.004-05:00

The Turk and the Little Turk are back in 2012 and we are proud to lead off the Handicappers Corner this year for the good people of The Thorofan.

The Turk loves the handicap division. It's pretty simple really too, I love numbers. I see elegance and beauty when I study a Past Performance. To people who know me the best, and who allow me to bore them the most, they know that I went years working a night shift where I handicapped whole cards, never once watching the physical race, just working the red gel pen only to repeat the process night in and out. It was my crossword puzzle, my Sudoku. It was the Internet that brought me back to racing after a lull in my interest, the Internet and horse racing on satellite television. This time of year, the older horses are either on the farm or they are just coming back to training and quality of the fields can be a bit so-so. This Grade 2 San Pasqual might not pass for an OC $40K N1X at another time in the year, but here we have it. I led off by saying I loved the handicap division because I like to deal with long racing histories and lots of running lines, but this group caught my eye in a bad way: 135 career starts, 4 fast dirt wins. Can you say ugh!

I do love Past Performances but I also love Race Charts. I have all eight days races in the current meet at Santa Anita printed and I'm starting my review of them this weekend. I'll break down the winning post positions, the basic race forms and pacing, and how the tote board rankings compared to the final outcome. I'm not so much interested in races like the San Pasqual as I am about gleaning knowledge about how the races might unfold in February and March and April, and I keep my own statistic. I prefer to gather my own stats because when you just look at the numbers you can sometimes miss the economy of word descriptions of how the race unfolded and the "story behind the story". It's too early to really hang too much on what I'm seeing but chalks are winning 38% of the time in my early review of the first six days of racing. I'm not interested in chalk today, let's see if we can beat em'.

Race 8 SA: The Grade 2 San Pasqual; 1 1/16 miles on Dirt

I'll assemble a reasonably priced $1 Superfecta built around my base handicap. I'll pay attention to the tote board as well as the scratches/changes and I'll either slip back to a Trifecta or pass altogether if there is a key (non-Toss Out) scratch.

I look forward to another great year meeting like minded horse racing fans. The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner has assembled a deep and eclectic collection of writers and handicappers, the best of the best in the blogosphere, providing keen analysis and insight from now until Breeders' Cup. Don't be bashful if you are new to the game, there isn't a blogger or writer who doesn't love to meet his readers, and you are in the right place, The Thorofan is all about the racing fan community.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Late Pick Three including the Grade 1 La Brea

2011-12-31T10:22:00.005-05:00

The Great Race Place has always held a special place in my heart, a romance that went astray for a few years because of the fumbled dalliance with fake dirt and the number of race days lost to wash outs. I don't have a complete bias against fake dirt: I play it at Hollywood, Woodbine,Keeneland, Presque Island and Arlington, but Santa Anita and Del Mar felt wrong and the material doesn't seem right for the ambient conditions at either location. I exercised my right as a horse player to take my handle elsewhere and I found myself shying away from Santa Anita before the expensive gamble was ended and dirt reinstalled, and my boycott of Del Mar continues, sans the Turf track. The Santa Anita main track is hard and fast and you have to take into account that they play with it often and the track plays differently over time. With that knowledge, I find the best way to have success at Santa Anita is to play Santa Anita, which brings me to today, the last Grade 1 of the year, the La Brea.

Opening Day at Santa Anita was a huge success; Turf Blogger Teresa Genaro writing in Forbes highlighted the renewal in attendance for the opening day card, the biggest crowd since 1994, but correctly identified the importance of Santa Anita on the overall American racing scene.

I'm an oddity: I'm an East Coast horse guy who loves California racing. I don't get hung up on West versus East, I just prefer Santa Anita to inner track racing at Aqueduct (my New York credentials are about to be revoked)and I don't pay much attention to Gulfstream until the Donn Handicap, so Santa Anita gets the drop on everyone for me.

Let's get after it!

Santa Anita Race 7-8-9 Late Pick Three

Race 7 may be the only two year old race I've written about all year, and it may be only the third or fourth I've handicapped. Yes, I have age bias. I'm just not that into the youngsters and the biggest reason is I like to see lots of information on the past performances. I'm not a pedigree expert, nor do I spend much time studying the physical animal, I like numbers and 2 YO's lack numbers. That said, those 2 YOs are 3 YOs tomorrow, ready or not, and I'll be paying attention to them now. I know from keeping my own statistics on my handicapping/betting that I struggle with three year old racing before June. I'm not tragic, just not as sharp as I'd like to be. Last year's screwy "different 3 YO every prep race" winners didn't do much to help my stats. My bread and butter is the handicap division, especially turf horses. Know thyself.

I always come off as a kill joy when I make this point but you don't have to bet every race you handicap. I handicap often just to stay abreast of the talent as well as to see how the tracks playing. I'll pick winners with no money on the table and I use the exercise to give myself a feeling for where I'm at. The idea of action betting that has been in many horse racing betting books is something I rejected and I hope some of my readers will push away from the betting window when they aren't fully prepared to make a strong stab at winning.

The Eddie Logan is a special race, as I've already said it takes alot for me to bet the 2 YOs. Eddie was a Santa Anita institution, and I had the honor of interacting with him just a few years ago. I hope he rests in peace and i have no doubt that if there is a thing such as ghosts, that Eddie's would be a friendly one wandering the hallways near his old shoeshine location.

The son of Scat Daddy, Daddy Nose Best is my chalk in this spot. The Assmussen trainee comes off the pace nicely and is 4 of 5 in the money over the grass already, with the biggest turf Tomlinson of the field.

Stoney Fleece makes the switch from Dirt/Tur, something Trainer Sadler pulls off 25% of the time. A nice Grade 3 1 mile turf effort two back, setting his best Beyer at 83, confirms his ability to compete.

Chips All In is 4 of 4 in the money but goes over the turf for the first time, something Trainer Mullins pulls off 19% of the time, but he's also only 11% going from Fake Dirt to Grass.

The Black is my superfecta wildcard.

In the La Brea I'll be singling Turbulent Descent with a quartet of horses that I think could upset her. She's giving 5 pounds to everyone but I don't place much stock in that. Training sharply and the girl to beat.

My quartet is May Day Rose, Sarah's Secret, Home Sweet Aspen and Great Hot (Brz). Baffert's May Day Rose is a two time Grade 3 winner who came up just short in her last out, a Grade 2 during Breeders' Cup undercard racing. Sarah's Secret has no dirt, no distance, no Santa Anita efforts. She is a Grade 2 winner and a daughter of Leroidesanimaux (Brz). Home Sweet Aspen is perfect in the money over dirt and at Santa Anita. Toss the last effort and hope for a return to form. Great Hot (Brz), with Sutherland up, is a Santa Anita winner and very game.

Race 9 is a pretty good Optional Claimer/N2X; Baffert's Capital Account is off a long layoff, something Baffert does well 35% of the time, and has been training quite well. I also like Carla Gaines's Shrug: Blinkers off (17% angle) and training very sharply at Santa Anita.

Lunada Bay is a Baffert/Mike Smith joint, 30% winners at Santa Anita. Another long layoff horse.

Ron Ellis's 5 YO gelding Believe in Hope is winless in 2011 but had a very good last race out at 6F at Santa Anita. The son of Thunder Gulch has one win in last 8, way back in April 2010.

Carl O'Callaghan is a trainer I think is going places. His Leaving New York has been on the shelf since April and breaks from the 1 spot but has an awful lot of talent.

I'll build a very reasonable Pick 3 that echos my base handicap, with Turbulent Descent singled and a bit of value if I can find it. If i can't string a Pick Three together that has enough value I'll save the betting capital and invest in the superfectas I'm preparing.

Have fun with this nice card. We'll be playing Santa Anita All weekend and before next week I'll put up my track stats that I'm keeping.

Turk out!

Happy Holidays from the Turk and Little Turk

2011-12-25T09:01:00.005-05:00

Happy Holidays to my friends, family and readers. The Turk enjoyed some quality downtime from the races following the Clark Handicap, which hard to believe, was a month ago. As a blogger I'm often loathe to take weeks off, but I remind myself I've never really been about traffic, ad revenue, or even good writing, so a few weeks away during the holidays is almost a public service! Seriously, I had nothing to offer over the past few weeks and I'd rather be silent than flap my gums for the sake of flapping.

Without the cycle of handicapping, blogging, betting, post race analysis (wash, sleep, repeat)I was able to go sleep early on Friday nights, push away from the computer screen on Saturday mornings, and think little of the races. This time of year, even though we haven't gotten much snow, I build a fire each Friday and Saturday night, and after Mama and Little Turk go off to bed, Kay, the family wiemaraner and I, will sit in quiet reflection and think on the events that were and the future to come. I like to believe that it's during this time that I elevate myself from drone to human.

The Turk had a good year overall and there is much to be thankful for. My family remains alive and healthy: Papa Turk's mechanical ticker is still ticking and cousin Kevin beat cancer. My nephew Danny, try as hard as he can, healed all his broken bones. My job continues to place food on my table and provide for my families needs. The job is a tough physical and mental grind, but I'm grateful for the opportunity and when it ends one day I'll be able to say I gave it my all. Little Turk became a black belt in his martial art, Bushido Kai. He worked all off season with a private coach and brought his soccer game to a new level as well. Little Turk is a good student, with grades in the low 90's, but more importantly, his report cards are filled with top marks for discipline and conduct and he's becoming a thoughtful young man. Unbeknownst to me, he wrote a paper in school recently about what he wished he could give for Christmas, and he wished he could bring Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds back to life for his family. Speaking of Tiznow, his death in late September might have been the low point of the year. The young man had so much passion for our sport, his death has left a void in many peoples lives, especially his family and young daughter. Lost as well this past year was Rachel Beard, DVM, a passionate horse racing fan and veterinarian. I hope both Tim and Rachel find peace on the other side.

I was blessed again this year to be able to collaborate with some of the best writers on the Internet(and traditional media) covering horse racing: Steve from Wireplayers.com invited my to join his merry group to vote on Derby Contenders for the second year in a row. It's a raucous group effort that I thoroughly enjoy and speaking of collaborations, I've contributed to some group "Top Five" efforts at Hello Race Fans! and I'm always honored at the opportunity to share my thoughts when they kindly ask. The Thorofan allowed me to handicap for The Handicapper's Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of people united together to give racing fans a voice and an opportunity to come together socially. Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers and the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance are two groups that I proudly write for, and I have been grateful as well to have my postings available at Raceday 360 Wire.

The subtitle of this blog is "Horses, Handicapping and Hi jinks". I cover the handicapping pretty well along with the horses, but this ol' cigar chomping handicapper may bore you with what he considers hi jinks at this point in his life. In 2011 I was lucky enough to attend races at Santa Anita and Del Mar, as well as witness morning work at both tracks. I visited Turf Paradise, Belmont, Arlington, Aqueduct and Churchill Downs, as well as a brief, few race Saratoga visit. The highlight of the year was the Breeders' Cup with the Turk Clan and our dear friends from North of the border.

I'm going to be playing Santa Anita and Gulfstream primarily over the next several months. I had negative ROI through April the past three years in a row which doesn't surprise me: I don't pay attention to two year olds and the Derby prep races chew me up. I am positive ROI during that same time period with older horses and turf racing. A quick review showed I had spotty results at Aqueduct, Tampa Downs, LA Downs and a few other tracks I don't play often. That makes sense as well and I'll spend the first few weeks of the new year handicapping but keeping my bet exposure reasonable or non existent. I do my best work when I get a feel for how the track plays and with horses on their second efforts of a meet. I'm going to be a patient bettor but an active handicapper and post race analyst, which is my real love anyways (not that I have a problem with large stacks of money).

I'll be back before tomorrow with opening day at Santa Anita. Life is good friends, enjoy it, we are only here for a short while. I'd like to end with a final thanks to all the kind words of support my horse racing friends provided while my loving dog Kay went through a serious health scare. I didn't think she'd still be with me this time last week, and while not out of the woods, there is daylight again.

Blessed Christmas. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 25 November 2011: The Clark Handicap Grade 1

2011-11-26T12:00:00.001-05:00

The reason I perform post race analysis is to learn what I did right and wrong. A successful bet is a three part process: I handicap the race and create a base handicap. My Base Handicap orders the horses, similar to a morning line, except I assign letter grades, and any horse B- or above is considered for Superfecta. I watch the live tote board right up to the moment I must place the bet. My base handicap is built devoid of considerations of value, underlays or overlays, and I will "reorder" slightly depending on relative values when it makes sense. My Bet Construction consists of several patterns I generally follow, i.e. "box the top five", "single the top horse and box the bottom 4", " Box the top four and include more horses in the 4th spot". I like to build consistent bets and I like to bet consistent amounts. Adding consistency takes away unnecessary thoughts in the minutes leading to post. Those three items are all key to my methods and drive my success and my failures.

I left $5,900 on the table yesterday when I screwed up my bet construction after nailing the base handicap cold. Cold. I had three horses, all listed as "A". Frequently my base handicaps are misunderstood as being an exact order of finish. I'm more jaded and cynical than that! I had three runners (Mission Impazzible, Flat Out and Wise Dan) in Blue and all Three were listed as A. In my base handicap, any one of them could finish in first. That doesn't happen often but as I said, I was torn yesterday and whomever was my chalk, it was a tepid 7-2 at best. But consider this: If there was a Super High Five, I had the top five out of 13 identified and ready to be boxed. All I needed to do yesterday was box my top five and I had the Superfecta. Why didn't I?

I could make excuses and rationalize but the bottom line is I didn't trust in my base handicap enough. I said it in my writeup. I broke one of my key rules, build the handicap and trust the handicap, and bet the handicap. The top 5 boxed for $2 is $240 bet. If you play ten of these and lose all ten you'd be out $2,400, but it only takes one like yesterday to post a 50% ROI. By keeping post race analysis I know I'm clipping away at nearly 4 out of ten Superfectas in the past 6 months. I broke my consistent betting rule and I left a nice score on the table (it also helps to know I am much better from August to November than I am January through July. Why? Better information on the PP's).

Let's analyze and take some positives out of this self imposed self mutilation moment.

The key yesterday was I expected the Breeders' Cup runners to regress. You sharpen the point of the spear to be ready on the day of the $6.0 million dollar race, not the $500,000 race. Those horses were primed for maximum effort on November 5th. They are ready for the farm. On class alone they ran better than most of the field but this is a common angle you can use every November from now until forever, these Breeders' Cup bounce horses will attract money and these horses will fail to fire.

I liked that I backed Mission Impazzible. I questioned pre race where the pace would come from except Will's Wildcat and not surprisingly Will's Wildcat struck the front and Mission Impazzible set up in stalk. I liked Mister Marti Gras, not something I can say has ever happened before. I liked the Ack Ack, I liked where he was at in 2011 and I liked Trainer Block and the cards he's playing that seem to be aces.

That's the handicap in a nutshell: I discounted Prayers for Relief and Headache, I had Ruler on Ice lower than the tote board ranking and I wasn't sold that Flat Out would be any better than he was three weeks ago and he wasn't, while at the same time expecting Mission Impazzible and Mister Marti Gras to hit the winning tickets.

What I got wrong was not betting my time honored method when I'm unsure; I trust my handicap and box five to get four or I box four to get three. I left money on the table. The realist me knows that will happen. The practical me knows that I have to minimize that by following my methods. The competitive me is pissed off because I love nothing more than to beat the game. The blogger in me doesn't mind so much because it gives me an opportunity to write about failure and how analysis and failure grouped together can really drive your forward in the bad times. The sensitive and emotionally fragile me? Doesn't exist, sorry.

Another time honored method I won't fall into is placing Wise Dan on too high a pedestal. Sure on paper he beat a realy nice 13 horse field convincingly, and he's had a nice campaign on lots of surfaces, but I'll look to beat him next time out. That's what the bettor in me does, ignores the hype. The fan in me was pretty thrilled with the race but not thrilled enough to get to into the Horse of the Year discussions: Too many have a minor share in that prize and I get the feeling it will be a popularity vote that deciedes this Eclipse Award, not that they let this idiot internet hack vote.

I am not a computer, I make mistakes. Consistency over a long period of time is the only real way to measure success and failure. The cathartic nature of blogging is that I can admit my failure and move on. I'll let this one go and regroup to make a stack of bills on the next one.

Have fun friends, Happy Thanksgiving, Turk(ey) Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs

2011-11-25T06:36:00.006-05:00

Baseball fans get all misty eyed talking about Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, and as a hockey fan, I was saddened to see our Buffalo Memorial Auditorium condemned and knocked down in the name of luxury suites and more concessions. There is something special about these old places; places you shared highs and lows with, maybe with your father, your friends, your girlfriend, now your wife, your children.

Fenway and Wrigley were built in 1911 and 1914 respectively. Churchill Downs has existed since 1875, with the iconic twin spires going up in 1895. The driving force behind the creation of the track was Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark, grandson of the famous American explorer, General William Clark of the William and Clark expedition of 1804-1806, the first transcontinental expedition of the United States, and whose mother was from one of Kentucky's first and leading families, the Churchill's.

At the age of 29, Meriwether Clark saw the first edition of this race run. As in all things in life, you don't really own something unless you really own it, and his mother's two brothers left the land to others after their death and Meriwether found himself as nothing more than a race steward by 1897. Already hurt deeply by poor financial investments, and followed by the loss of the track, Meriwether committed suicide in 1899 at the age of 53 years old. One can't help but think he stands along the rail along with all the other horse players we've said goodbye to over the years, players like Shawn Murphy, Rose Rizzo and Tiznow Reynolds, watching our equine heroes run over the same route of dirt in the South of Louisville that he walked so many years ago.

I love old racetracks. I stare out at the track and I see and hear the ghosts of races past thundering up the stretch. The Clark Handicap is a tradition of mine, a wonderful post Thanksgiving Day event that I look forward too, an echo of the season that has essentially concluded, a harbinger of the coming winter, and a hint of handicap division to come once the sun returns.

I'd be remiss if I didn't give my thanks to The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner for the opportunity to write about today's race. I am thankful in these economic times for the means to write these types of articles; I thank my employer. I thank my loving family. I cherish my friends even though the introvert that I am doesn't make me a very social friend. I thank my pets.

Let's get after this!

When people ask me what I'd like as a horse player, THIS is what I describe: a greater than 10 horse field, with trainers aggressively running their well conditioned animals back to the track on short rest (relative to the times we live in), and just alot of parity in the starting gate.

My base handicap reflects that parity. There are plenty of horses to spread money around and the tote board favorite most likely will be Flat Out: the five year old son of Flatter was the Breeders' Cup Classic chalk just three weeks ago. He'll be in my top four from a betting perspective but I'm placing him down a bit in the handicap. There's little to dislike with Flat Out but this is gambling, not play it safe "handi-pandering", so I'm going to place Mission Impazzible on top for what would be his biggest win so far. Trainer Pletcher is 25% in 2nd races off 45-180 layoffs and Mission Impazzible has been training sharply at Churchill since his first run back at KEE as the well beaten chalk. Has ran well here, including a loss by a neck in the Stephen Foster and he also didn't embarrass himself in the Woodward.

I'm a superfecta bettor usually, but this race is a true dichotomy for me: I love it as a race fan, but as a bettor there are much easier marks. That said, it's an interesting race that will require some thought on the bet construction. Where the pace comes from besides a well outclassed Will's Wildcat, I'm not sure. The bet comes after that handicap so let's keep trudging through that. By the way, the track should be fast. It's an important point that you need to always identify before going to far.

Ruler on Ice was up for Show in the Breeders Cup Classic, making a very hard late run. He's been firing since the Belmont Stakes but at some point he's going to want to run back to the farm. On class and guts alone I'll place him in the top four, but his post position and his 9 previous starts this may catch up to him.

Wise Dan was the bettors second choice that pounded Mission Impazzible at KEE last time out. He ran twice on dirt in 2011 at Churchill Downs, two weak efforts, one as the chalk. He's winless on fast dirt, has two slop wins, 4 fake dirt and turf win in his resume. His placement in my handicap is his high water mark and most of my tickets will have him 4th or out of the money.

As is the case sometimes, as I'm writing this I find myself making a case for the horses I have lower in the handicap. The horses I have listed in my exotic pool are all more than capable of Place and Show. Mister Marti Gras won the Ack Ack here Breeders' Cup weekend. He's 6 of 8 in the money in 2011 11 of 18 in the money the past two years, with 1 win at CD, 1 win at the distance and 1 fast dirt win. Trainer Block has super trainer-esque stats, 26% on Dirt and 23% of Graded Stakes, as well as 26% won last start.

Prayers for Relief has been training lights out at Santa Anita, :46 2/5ths at 4f and 1:11 3/5 at 5f; The Iowa, West Virginia and Super Derby winner, falling short and out finished in the Oaklahoma Derby last time out. An exciting horse and someone to look forward to next year, he could finish anywhere on the board. Did I mention parity?

Headache had a great view of the Breeders' Cup Classic, at the back of the pack. The five year old had a great year, winning the Cornhusker and the Hawthorne Gold Cup. 8 Wins in 19 starts on fast dirt, 3 Churchill Downs wins in 8 tries.

General Quarters, the poor man's Musket Man. His 27th career start for the 5 year old trained by Tom McCarthy. Hasn't run well in a big spot in awhile with the exception of a gutty place over fake dirt two back.

Eight runners I've "layered" somewhere into the top four. Five horses I've tossed. I've done this long enough to know there is a good chance I'll be discussing how one of the five I tossed messed up my superfecta, but you can't cover everyone.

So what will I do with with this:

Maybe it's the Turkey Hangover, I just don't have a great read on the Superfecta. I've assembled a $400 dollar ish $2 Super that I won't play, a much cheaper version that is much cheaper but I'm not sure if its any good and and low priced trifecta that may be too chalky to be worth the bet.

You never get hoodwinked by The Turk, if I don't have an opinion, I don't have an opinion. I could play the 10 cent or $1 variety of Superfectas today or I may just scour the tote board and take $10 and assemble 5 fun exacta's with Mr. Marti Gras and Mission Impazzible playing with some underlays.

There you have have, a Turk tossing out a turkey of a handicap on Clark Handicap day. Sometimes the wishbone doesn't break your way.

Have fun friends, Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 19 November 2011; The G3 River City Handicap and G1 Hollywood Turf Cup

2011-11-20T10:48:00.004-05:00

Blues Street with Albarado, up, comes streaking home in the River City Handicap, a key race in a pleasing day of gambling for me. Thanks to the Louisville Courier-Journal online, the talented Jennie Rees and photograph most likely by Reed Palmer.

I felt really bad yesterday after posting my blog as I think I committed the ultimate sin; it was boring, and worse, preachy. The purpose of The Turk and the Little Turk primarily is to highlight my handicapping methodology developed over a long time. It's not sexy, nor is it overly technical. I would love to talk about taking months with my slide rule and stacks of old race forms while I developed a mathematical view of a horses ability to cover a route of turf and how his time would relate to other horses. Never happened and I wouldn't know where to start. I stress consistent handicapping using a horses ability over his career to determine his chances on any given day. Workouts, Class, Trainer Stats, these are the things that I key on, with a nod to Pace. I ignore two year olds because there just isn't enough imperical data on their past performances for me to make my analysis complete.

My post was boring yesterday, something of a dog, and I'll work harder at that now that I'm calling myself out. What wasn't boring was the results; the Turk took down over $2,000 on wagers of about $150 by just doing what I do best- ignoring the pre race hype, building a base handicap,not getting too hung up on if I have chalk on top, studying the tote board leading to post, and making sound bets, constructed on principles I use week in and week out.

Let's get after this!

When you ignore morning lines and pre race news articles over the course of time you'll notice your handicaps will share many similarities with the tote board and the race day lines; With experience you should be able on a 10 horse field to identify the 3 longest shots as well as the top three, with the middle four up for subjective slotting. What I like about ignoring the pre race morning line is it gives me something to compare my base handicap to and allows me to spot a contrarian position I may have taken. Sometimes it's just a subtle difference like my chalk being the Place or Show horse.

I took some similar views on yesterday's races: I felt strongly about my chalks and was prepared to build bets around them. In both races I used my base handicap and built a matrix bet, keeping my bet exposure low. in my boring post I stressed I was just in skills maintenance mode and didn't plan on going for broke with my bets. Both races I crafted $2 Superfecta Bets for reasonable amounts of money, $30-50 dollars each. In both races I built $10 Exacta bets with singled chalks. I kept things simple but the results were stunning.

We try to put our money where our mouth is at The Turk. 10% of today's winnings went to horse charities that are dear to me. The Turk has donated either cash or solicited online auctions that benefited horse charities to the tune of over $2,000 this year. I only say that because I'm imploring the good people of this sport to take care of our own, the workers on the backstretch and our retired runners. There are some wonderful people out there doing tireless work to save every equine life. Those people inspire me deeply. These are very tough economic times and anything you can spare goes a long way.

OK, I've now been boring, preachy, and I've solicited charitable contributions all in one blog post. I'll shut-up for now.

Good Times. Have fun, Turk Out

The Nominations Are In: The Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup and the Grade 3 River City Handicap

2011-11-19T00:10:00.007-05:00

Handsome Sanagas, winner of the Grade 3 Sycamore at KEE last time out. With his late moves, the five year old Graham Motion trainee is like a riverboat gambler, a gambler out on the Sanagas River perhaps. I digress.

I know many horseplayers who tune out after the Breeders' Cup and only wake back up during the Triple Crown preps. There's nothing wrong with that at all and I think it is important to take handicappers holidays from time to time. For me to stay sharp though, I have to handicap, even if at a reduced volume. I don't need to handicap whole cards, just enough races to keep me fresh.

As I scale back my handicapping, I try to stay in touch with tracks that I plan to be aggressive at in the future. Clark Handicap day at Churchill Downs is important to me so I've been playing Churchill regularly, and then Hollywood will hold my interest between Thanksgiving weekend and Christmas when the start of the Santa Anita winter meet and Gulfstream will keep me occupied. It doesn't matter what your interests are, but I do think it's important to have a plan, to have a focus on certain tracks.

I handicapped for years without betting a nickel, just picking horses and looking at the results the next day. Have you ever seen Conan the Barbarian? In the movie, Conan is strapped to this wooden wheel, and he walks around and around and around for years, going from a small boy to big muscular Arnold. The idea is that while repetitive and at times boring, it made him big and strong (that and steroids perhaps). Well, all that handicapping for years, whole cards at a time, was my "Conan pushing the wheel in circles" moment. If you are new to the game, first of all I welcome you, I want you to stay, and I want you to get better. The best way to enjoy the game is to break even or win and in order to do that, have your own Conan moments and handicap all the racing you can, especially during this lull in the racing season.

I care about being at the top of my game from July to November, just like the horses in the handicap division, and to get there I have to pace myself, sharpen my skills, and keep it fun. It's been my experience that if I'm not 100% committed to my handicapping effort I'll lose money

Long story short: For the next two months; I'll keep the betting exposure low and just work on my chops. I urge my readers who may have been turned on by the Breeders' Cup and are new to the sport to keep things simple; identify winners. If you can't consistently pick the winner, regards of the odds, out of the PP's, you shouldn't be betting exotics. Try stringing together exactas. Handicap and pick the top 3 but wager no money. Try tossing 25%of the field and seeing how you do with that, another skill you must master. Keep score and be honest with yourself.

This can be a very rewarding mental diversion, don't put too much pressure on yourself by allowing your betting to exceed your experience and skill level.

Let's get after this!

Hollywood Park Race 8 and Churchill Downs Race 9

We'll work backwards: At 7:07 Eastern the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup goes off at 12 panels and firm turf.

My initial thought is I'd love to see at least 3 more horses to make this a 10 horse field but not my call. With seven horses, if even one scratches I'm much less interested as a bettor. Other early thoughts are the race seems to have some real quality on the front end which means prices will be short and the race less bettable unless I find some real value that will hit the top four.

I like Sanagas (Ger), the most likely post time chalk, to win: While a nice win in the Sycamore, the last two turf efforts were willing and confident. 6 wins in his last nine starts and 4 of 6 in the money on turf. Trainer Motion is winning 24% of his Won Last Start starters and 21% of his graded stakes. He places Maragh up, and the two have won 25% of their efforts together.

Norvsky is a late moving horse as well; The five year old gelding won in late October at 9 panels under Bejarano. The distance question should make or break this choice and should also influence the price in the direction I'd like but the question is real as he's never tried the distance but there is lots to like still; 7 of 8 in the money in 2011, 5 of 5 in the money in 2010, 15 of 16 lifetime in the money, 11 of 12 in the money on Turf and 5 of 5 in the money at Hollywood Park.

Bourbon Bay is a dependable runner with six wins in last 13 starts. Last win was a Grade 3 fake dirt effort at Delmar in late July and seems to have struggled slightly since coming back from Dubai although his Beyers are consistent. he just missed by a head as the chalk in the Del Mar Handicap. Trainer Drysdale is a darn good horseman who wins 19% of his graded stakes efforts. Gomez is up and he and Drysdale have had very little success together in the past year, 1 win in 16 tries. More than capable of striking anywhere in the top three.

I think it gets murky after those three with Miss Match and Falcon Rock seeming the best of the bunch. Miss Match (Arg) is also trained by Neil Drysdale, who places Mike Smith up. My recollection in the stands at Churchill Downs was that Miss Match was almost walking down the stretch the last 1/4 mile in the Distaff, a class test that didn't go so well. A nice last move before that in the Goodwood but her two wins in 2011 both came before April. No turf wins, no attempts at this distance, lots to overcome.

Falcon Rock (Ire) has been on the bench since mid July, a break Trainer Callaghan wins 6% of the time. No wins in 6 starts on Hollywood turf, 2 wins in 19 tries on turf, 1 win in 7 starts at distance, the 6 year old gelding looks the part but only has 2 wins in 22 tries but does have 9 Places. Some horses just don't like to win and while I said 1 of 7 at the distance, 7 of 7 in the money at the distance and 12 of 19 in the money on turf. Gomez jumps off here and Flores is up.

In the River City Handicap, Eddie Kenneally is the trainer of Blues Street now, taking over the super trainer after a poor effort by the 7 year old gelded son of Street Cry in a grade 2 affair at Saratoga where his running line reads "folded". Blues Street is my tentative chalk; This is his 30th lifetime start and he's been in the money 19 times. a nice one mile effort where he just missed at KEE in early October.

If he falters, Tajaaweed will be right there: A bullet work early this week, the 6 year old Dynaformer son looks to erase the poor effort in his stable owners Shadwell Turf Mile. He has run sharply at Churchill Downs this year, just loosing to Turk favorite Turallure in July at 1 1/16 miles on firm grass.

Speaking of that the weather should hold out and the track is currently listed as firm.

This race also could benefit from a few more starters but the quality seems pretty consistent and of the two races, this may be a better bettors affair (say that fast three times!) Below my top two I like Allie's Event who should be good value. Breeder/Owner and Trainer Lori Smock had a bullet work at 5f in 1:01 /5ths at TP this week and has seen her 5 year old run consistent efforts since finishing fourth in last years edition of this race.

Gleam of Hope also put up a bullet 5f in :59 flat at KEE. 6 of 9 in the money on turf for the four year old gelded City Zip son.

Cherokee Lord may be poised for a good effort and comes in off a win at RP in mid October at 1 1/16 over firm turf. Expect a stalking effort and see if he fires.

Have fun with it as that's the goal for me today; I'm coming back for serious play on Churchill Downs for Thursday and Friday and then I'll downshifyt again for a few weeks.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 12 November 2011; The Churchill Downs Late P3

2011-11-12T22:17:00.004-05:00

Getting back to work after the Breeders' Cup as a handicapper, the easiest thing for me to do is to continue working a dirt and turf surface that I'm comfortable with. As long as the weather holds up I'll bet this track right through one of my favorite race days, the day after Thanksgiving and the Clark Handicap.

Today's Mrs. Revere G2 looked like a very strong collection of three year old fillies on paper and the race didn't disappoint. For those who pay attention, Marketing Mix has been on an ascent since late July and looks primed to be a real force next year.

Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Race 8-9-10

The Pick Three was the planned cornerstone of my betting day but it turned out to be a bust after the first leg. Not much to say really, I was just off in Race 8 and 10. In race 8 I had the 12 horse, Afleeting Lady fifth on my board. In race 10 I tossed the four horse, Media Contact; 0 of 4 at CD, 0 of 5 at the distance but 6 of 7 in the money on fast dirt and I either missed that or discounted it.

In the Mrs. Revere my only regret was the betting public was all over this race and there were no contrarian positions to take. The Superfecta was 1-2-3-4 on the tote board. I do this regularly and that doesn't happen very often. I felt comfortable singling Marketing Mix in my Super and I bet a straight Exacta with Marketing Mix/Bizzy Caroline. It was a chalk fest but that didn't stop me from making some good money management decisions and turing a low risk positions of $80 into $520.

There is money to be made on every card at every track on every day of racing, it just won't always be as sexy as the Breeders' Cup.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 12, 2011; The Late Pick Three at Churchill Downs including The Mrs. Revere Grade 2

2011-11-11T21:36:00.008-05:00

This picture sums up my 2010-2011 Breeders' Cup experience at Churchill Downs over the past two years; it blew by. It really is hard for me to believe that two of these events have come and gone and I'm loathe to compare the two years because that's not really fair with the solar eclipse of a mare, Zenyatta, creating such a huge buzz in the grandstands last year. On Friday the Turk Clan parked in the prepaid lot right next to Roy and Gretchen Jackson, the owners of Barbaro. I asked Mrs. Jackson if it was difficult for her to come back to Churchill Downs and she answered my awkward question kindly and said it was a place of great memories for her. Thank you Mrs. Jackson for being so forthright with me.

I had a decent two days of gambling, more or less break even. My biggest thrill was Amazombie winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint and my lowest low was being "that guy" loudly telling everyone that Court Vision should have been retired only to watch him win the Mile. I had my money on Turallure and I have a real soft spot for the Woodbine Mile and I should have bet the Woodbine Mile Exacta as that paid a sick about of mooola. Long Live Goldikova, she was a real special treat, and her connections were very sporting with the way she was campaigned, a real lesson to some of our American runners.

I swung for the fences with the Super Hi Five on the Breeders' Cup Classic. If I had won, you'd know about it by now. I had tossed Ruler on Ice but I had the other four. We'll revisit that bet more times in my life. I had Game On Dude to win and really thought I had a sleeper after I jumped off Flat Out. I don't know if there was any more Chantal could have milked out of him, but the way Drosselmeyer flew up the outside, I just don't think she saw him or there was no response. Either way, I enjoyed myself and i enjoyed the weekend for what it was: Multiple Grade 1 winning horses with long odds on very good animals in every race.

The Turk is never going to be confused as being gregarious in my social life. I fake it well in the business world but I'm a pretty reserved fella. I loved walking through the paddock, seeing the excitement, feeling the vibe of people digging horse racing (and vodka). I woke up early on Saturday morning and channeled some positive energy, driving to Mt. Washington before winding my way back to Churchill Downs to watch the horses from the fence line on Longfield Avenue graze and be happy.

The glamour of racing cards with multiple graded stakes one after another is just about over the calendar year. I like to handicap in November and December to sharpen up and look for 3 year olds who were lost in the shuffle and will be staying in training for 2012. I just don't give a hoot about 2 year olds and I never will- I'll get excited about them when the long Derby Trail begins again. I'll be handicapping Churchill until after the Clark and then I'll bounce over to Hollywood park, where I have had some really big December's in the past few years.

I've got a Pick Three at Churchill Downs that I've been noodling over which includes the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere. Let's get after it!

I really like Hungry Island's 2011 body of work but the Garden City, while looking like an off the board effort deserves a look;

She came out of traffic in a perfect striking position but it was Winter Memories day. I liked the rally. That said, I'm backing Marketing Mix to win.

Marketing Mix is a Medaglia d'Oro filly out of Instant Thought (Kris S.) The Ontario bred will have grass master Leparoux up for trainer Tom Proctor, who's a 20% turf winner. A solid 2011 Woodbine campaign, a win in an always competitive Wonder Where, a nice Pucker Up G3 at Arlington and a Place to Together in the QE2 Cup G1 at Keeneland. Training sharply and running well, a deadly combination.

Bizzy Caroline breaks from the two post for trainer McPeek with M. Cruz up. A dreadful Del Mar Oaks G1 was followed up by a Place in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland. A bullet on the poly track there last week. 5 of 8 in the money lifetime over turf, 2 wins in 2 starts on CD turf, the Afleet Alex daughter looks like a handful.

Smart Sting is a Smart Strike/Perfect Sting joint, trained by Roger Attfield. I was ecstatic to see Mr. Attfield win his first Breeders' Cup race (could that possibly be i thought, but yes it was) with Perfect Shirl in the Filly and Mare Turf. Wow! Johnny V is up. 5 of 6 in the money in 2011 with 2 turf wins, but winless at the distance and winless in one effort at Churchill. Comes off a 8.5 furlong fake dirt G3 win and a decent Virginia Oaks G3 effort two back.

Sea Level Drive is easy to overlook but I'm intrigued. An N1X winner on poly at Arlington, she ends up in Leigh Bently's barn, runs a well beaten Place to Marketing Mix in the Pucker Up G3 at 25.5-1 odds and follow that up as the 1.3-1 chalk in an N2X win at 8.5 furlongs on the fake stuff at KEE. This Malibu Moon should like the turf here and Trainer Arnold has her back but there is some baggage there: Arnold is a 3% winner on Fake Dirt to Turf crossovers and a 7% stakes race winner.

Hungry Island, Louakhova and New Normal round out my exotic covers. Louakhova has never finished off the board in 7 starts and won in her North American debut at 1 mile on yielding turf in October. I may be foolish not covering her in the P3 but you can't cover everyone friends!

The New Normal has been training well at Woodbine for Trainer Frostad. Friends, if you aren't paying attention to the good horsemanship north of the American border, pay more attention, especially to Woodbine. The Canadians love bringing good horses south in the Winter. A G3 winner as a two year old, she's been training well but this is first race off a long layoff, a break Frostad wins 15% of the time off of.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta for the Mrs. Revere and I will most likely follow my alternative bet selection for the P3, perhaps stretching out to one more horse in the Mrs. Revere, Louakhova and downplaying Smart Sting. Hmmmmm. Things to think about minutes before the gate throws open. By doing your handicapping well in advance, I can focus on bet construction, allowing the tote board to help me make some value judgements.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade 1

2011-11-03T07:57:00.006-04:00

"Go Big or Go Home" It's a fairly macho statement, spoken by Type A personalities just to let you know their outlook on life. The Turk's feeling macho: Let's swing for the fences with a statement bet, the kind of bet you hit and you brag about for life. Anything that carries lifetime bragging rights should be sufficiently difficult and I present to you the challenge before us, the Super Hi Five: The top five finishers selected in order.

I tried to find the etymology of this statement, go big or go home, and Google keeps pointing me to a petite female named Eliza. Go figure, but I digress and for now imagine a bald, handsome, cigar smoking handicapper, nattily dressed with a Korean kid in tow standing at the betting window smiling at the the glazed over teller and leading with "Go Big Or Go Home", which to him she replies "read the sign: track, race, and bet". Respect.

It doesn't get much bigger than the Breeders' Cup Classic or the Super Hi Five Bet. Before I go to far I'd like to thank the Thorofan for inviting me to handicap such a prestigious race for the Handicappers Corner. I'm honored to not only be associated with a group like The Thorofan as a guest handicapper, but I put my money where my endorsements are and I'm also a dues paying member.

The Super Hi Five, Go Big or Go Home. Is it harder than a Pick Six? That's relative but I'm going to say yes. It's so random who trots home in fourth and fifth, Win Place Show for that matter, that all you can do is the layer the horses into the slots you expect them to finish within and place the bet. Boxing the top seven horses on the tote board would cost you $2,520. That's pretty pricey. I assembled a chart of the last eleven Breeders' Cup Classic races and it would strongly suggest you are wasting your money using the tote board as a gage: The chalk finished in the top five 8 of the 11 years, the bettor's second choice only 4 times. Ugh, you get the idea.

I'll go off on a tangent one more time and suggest that this sort of gamble is extremely high risk, but the payoff reward can be significant. Don't bet the milk money or the mortgage money and stop reading now if you aren't interested in such an unlikely proposition (The Turk isn't that macho really. I won't tell on you if you place show bets, honest, I'd still love to hang with you in the paddock). From my base handicap you can easily assemble Win-Place-Show- Trifectas and what seems like a conservative bet after talking about the Super Hi Five, the Superfecta. Whatever you do, do your own handicapping, only bet what you are comfortable losing and study after the race what you got right and what you got wrong, its the best way to get better at this.

If you've never been to the Breeders' Cup I hope you can find the opportunity in the future to attend. It's two days of total immersion within our sport. Everywhere you look is regal purple and splendor.

Let's get after this before I get all misty eyed.

The Breeders' Cup Classic; 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt

Over the last week I've assembled quite a bit of readily available video on the Classic runners. Video is an important tool to the Turk. I have no special insights into the way the animal physically appears and you won't find me rambling here about switching leads, no for me the video is strictly about the trip. When I look at the past performance I get a pretty good idea of what happened but its like a black and white TV for anyone old enough to remember how lame that was, but taking the PP's and watching the video is like unlocking the HDTV settings on your phat plasma; you get a real indication of the "extenuating circumstances" as I like to call them.

Another notion you must learn to control if you are going to be a good bettor is the concept of "feeling good about the bet". You may be confident in your abilities, and by all means you should be if you are even trying this, but you never really know how things are going to turn out. When I analyzed my own betting years ago I often found myself getting very conservative on the exotics, clinging to the tote board ranking like a life preserver. When you handicap publicly like I do, its easy to be embarrassed. The average punter who loses at the windows doesn't write 10,000 words about who is going to win only to see that horse come in last, but that happens at the Turk and the Little Turk from time to time and it will happen again. The point is you have to assemble your handicap and place your bet, and you must learn to not negotiate with yourself, against yourself. Resist the urge to add 10 of the horses to the mix. You can't cover everybody and no handicapper or bettor is always right. I urge you friends to be a brave pari mutuel commando.

A real good tool during weeks like this is the Clocker Reports. You can pay money and get some really kick ass opinions and insights or you can be like me and watch the free ones at Daily Racing Form. They are pretty hype free. Also this week, I grabbed a web address from a PR guy at Churchill Downs for the official work tab. Just play with the date in the address bar. I like the work tabs quite a bit just to get a feel for how the runners are moving leading into the weekend. Remember, its not what a horse did in May or June, it's about what they have been doing since late August and September. I love to see on the Past Performances race efforts in Grade 1 company, on dirt, at or near the distance, punctuated by solid work at 4 and 4 furlongs. That floats my boat.

It's really a flip of the coin for me but I like Harve de Grace and Flat Out to be very competitive here. I'll cover both through positions 1-3 on my versions of my bet. I guess I should say because this is going up on the Thorofan Handicappers Corner by Thursday or Friday morning, I'll be tweaking my final bet a bit right up until Saturday. If your interested, you can find it at my blog my final matrix.

Flat Out lost in the Woodward to Harve de Grace. one of the real shames of the Fall was the track conditions and the field sizes on Super Saturday at Belmont, but that wasn't Flat Out's fault and he took care of business in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Training sharply, I dislike the 0 for 2 goose egg at Churchill Downs.

Harve de Grace also followed up the Woodward with a romp on Super Saturday in the slop. She's been training over the poly but her past performances are just epic and I'm really curious what she still has in the tank at this point in the season and the distance is a question as well and she has a small Tomlinson for the distance (mild indicator) and she has a goose egg in two grade 1 tries (The Alabama and Delaware Handicap) although she was a narrowly beaten Place in both. i think its feast or famine: She either really runs well or she drops out of the top five. That's my gut and I may revisit my bet and cover her positions 1-5 or be brave and cover her 2-5.

So You Think (NZ) is a monster on paper with one glaring issue: first dirt. This is the 5 YOs sixth straight Grade 1 effort, where he is 17 of 19 lifetime in the money on turf and a staggering $7,587 million in career earnings on 12 wins. She's picking up the post race feed bill. Aidan O'Brien places the horse on lasix for the first time and adds blinkers. He has gone left handed before, something you should always note. Came up flat in the Arc de Triomphe. I'm thinking I have him too high, he's just got alot to overcome. It's the Animal Kingdom spectre that looms in the back of mine and others heads that I just don't dismiss him outright. I'll say this: Who knows how he responds to dirt in his face, especially if he rates in a stalk and faces real traffic. I don't think he can win so I doubt I cover the top spot with him. Very curious to see how he works Thursday over the surface.

My next group for betting purposes are who I see finishing anywhere from Show to Fifth: Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, Drosslemeyer and Game on Dude. Game on Dude is 6 of 7 in the money in 2011, has won 5 of last 13 starts for Trainer Baffert, is 7 of 9 in the money over fast dirt and has put up big speed figs at the distance. It can't be discounted and his Goodwood effort was very solid. He's my wiseguy winner, especially where I expect to find him on the toateboard.

If I'm sneaking horses up as I'm slipping down So You Think it's Uncle Mo and Game on Dude. I have Headache and To Honor and Serve on the fringes of the exotic ticket. Somebody has to be tossed or we'll be spending a fortune and Ruler on Ice, Ice Box and Rattlesnake Bridge are on my list, but any of them can finish fifth or better and fudge up the works. This is gambling after all.

I'll be in Churchill Downs with my family as well as friends. I'm going to Go Big and Most Likely Go Home as well but it's been a good year at the windows for me and I've made some pretty nice stacks of green, it's time to swing away.

My last shout out to The Thorofan is thanking them again for what they have done to help The Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds family. Tim was an incredible race fan who passed away at way too young an age, leaving behind a wife and young daughter, as well as a grieving family and friends all over the country. If you can, please read the information about Tim at the Thorofan and your donations there, with a PayPal option, are going towards the education of his young daughter.

Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic-Part 2

2011-10-29T23:20:00.006-04:00

Last week we took an initial look at the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders, and now that we have a bit more information as to who may be in the starting gate it seems like the right time to circle back. As to not make you go back to hunt for Part 1, I'll tack it on the end or you can get to it from here.

We've got 12 athletes to study. I've already determined that I am hunting for the Super Hi Five and the Superfecta in this race so my layer handicapping approach will integrate my betting strategy as well. You just can't box your way to Super Hi Five success, well you can, but it would be pricey; Taking the top 7 and boxing them on a $1 bet would cost you $2,520. Now, this Super High Five, unless its wildly chalky, should pay more than double that and if it paid 10-20 times more than that i wouldn't be surprised. That said, boxing is out for The Turk, I want this win badly but I also want it old school cool too, as few combinations as I can. I'll employ a matrix betting structure. I could for example use 8 horses with 4 over 4 Over 5 Over 5 Over 5 for $562. We got options, let's not sweat that yet!

Await the Dawn is a Kentucky bred 4 year old son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Aidan O'Brien, wearing the silks of Tabor and Magnier, the silks I see when I close my eyes and think of Rags to Riches.

No dirt racing in his past and no races at the classic distance but he has run very well going left. Here he is going right in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2), 1 1/2 Miles over soft turf. In this article, O'Brien makes no bones about his desire for a Breeders' Cup Classic win.

Drosselmeyer is a four year old son of Distorted Humor, trained by Bill Mott. He posted a career best 104 Beyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over the slop in October, looked out of place in the 12 panel Sword Dancer before that over grass, and was a beaten chalk at 12 panels over the dirt in Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont, the track of his greatest victory. Actually since winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 he's only won one race, the 60K One Count at the classic distance at Belmont in May of this year.

Working well at Churchill Downs this week.

2nd in Jockey Club Gold Cup

Gio Ponti is cross entered here as well as the Mile. No Dirt efforts and no wins at this distance. 1 win in five starts in 2011.

Headache is a Michael Maker trainee that comes in off a Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) win at 1 1/4 miles over fast dirt. 14 of 18 in the money over fast dirt with 8 wins and 3 of 3 in the money at 10 furlongs with 1 win. The five year old son of Tapit comes in sharp.

Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) 8 October 2011

Working in traffic in the Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1) 6 August 2011

Winning Cornhusker Handicap (G3) 25 June 2011

Prayers for Relief is a 3 YO Zayat Stables runner trained by Bob Baffert. 3 wins in 4 fast dirt starts and 4 of 4 in the money, with no attempts at the distance and a lifetime best 98 Beyer. Winner of Iowa Derby (G3), West Virginia Derby (G2), The Super Derby (G2)and a beaten chalk in the Oklahoma Derby 400K. Put up a bullet :46 3/5ths for 4f at SA this past week.

The Super Derby (G2)

The Oklahoma Derby, Bejarano had the rail at the top of the stretch, swung him outside and got up for show.

Rattlesnake Bridge is another three year old son of Tapit trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Comes in off Pennsylvania Derby (G2), a flattened out run and a well beaten Show to To Honor and Serve and Ruler on Ice.

Rattlesnake Bridge is 5 of 5 in the money on fast dirt with 2 wins and has only tried the classic distance once.

Both Ruler on Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge ran the Travers (G1) as well, losing to Stay Thirsty.

Ruler on Ice has only run the Classic Distance once, has only one win in seven tries over fast dirt but did pull off a shocking Belmont Stakes (G1) win at 24.75-1 odds.

Ice Box won the Florida Derby (G1)in March 2010, was Place to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby and has done awfully little since then, but he ran pretty darn good at Churchill Downs last year at this distance, we shouldn't forget that, Nick Zito hasn't.

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes

2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding

Irish Champion Stakes

15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes

Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon. And it's unfortunate, but Tiznow won't be joining us in Louisville.

2011 Met Mile

2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs

Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.

2011 Jockey Gold Cup

2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out

Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby

This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.

Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011

I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes

I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy

10f The Travers Stakes

I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes

...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap

Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011

Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.

Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.

2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff

Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame

The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on

I'd be remiss to not say congratulations to The Little Turk. After six years of practicing two and three times a week he earned his Black Belt in Bushido Kai. Way to Go Little Buddy, we are all proud of our grifter in training.

Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Breeders' Cup Betting Targets and The Mile Grade 1

2011-10-29T09:29:00.002-04:00

Is there another figure more synonymous with the Breeders' Cup Mile than Freddie Head? Five times this man stood in the winner's circle, twice as a jockey aboard Miesque and then the last three years as trainer of Goldikova, a mare requiring no introduction in the racing world.

The pre entries are in and the advanced past performances are available for next weekend two day Breeders' Cup World Championships. Where do you start? Well, that's a personal decision, but for me, I start at the betting menu. There are 15 Breeders' Cup races, 10 of which are Grade I events, as well as five juvenile races. That's quite a bit of handicapping to do. Then there is the weather wildcard. Will it rain, will the track be sealed, sloppy or fast? Will the turf be yielding, American style fast, or a bit soft like our Euro cousins like? Some of these questions you just can't answer one week out but what you can do is prepare.

Preparation for the Ol' Turk means identifying which races I intend to handicap, setting my betting budget, and coming up with a betting strategy. It also means doing some mundane things like getting my bet preparation worksheets together. I know that I don't process the tote board information by sight, I have to write it down 25 minutes to post and counting down to 8 minutes. I watch the trending as I jot down onto my pre printed worksheets the odds off the tote and I also have my pre printed slots where I write out my bets and what I expect the bet to cost. This may sound wildly anal, and most likely it is, but I take positive ROI seriously and this is my personal system of preparing my bets. I didn't mention handicapping; that's all done well in advance of planning the bets. I have my base handicap and I seldom stray from it, as the "think long, think wrong" axiom has proven true too many times in my history. I do my homework in the quiet of my kitchen and away from the bustle of the track and when I get to the track I can focus on the post parade and the tote board and not concern myself at all with handicapping.

My betting targets almost any time of the year involves Pick Three and Pick Fours; That said, I don't particularly like juvenile races, and the Juvenile Fillies on Friday and The Juvenile on Saturday are plum in the middle of Pick Fours. Another consideration in Breeders 'Cup races are the field sizes; I may need to go six deep to hit the Superfecta and the bets will be more expensive than I'd prefer. These two thoughts combined together make my decision easy; I'm skipping the horizontal bets next week and I'm going to stick to vertical targets, the Trifecta/Superfecta and the grand daddy of vertical betting, The Super High Five.

The Super High Five; There may only be one thing I daydream more about. It wasn't always this way. Earlier this year it wasn't even on my radar, that is until my Preakness post race analysis when I realized I had it cold. The bet paid almost $50,000, and I didn't place the bet. Ugh. I got some redemption on Arlington Millions Day when I won my first Super High Five Bet, and hitting it on Breeders' Cup weekend would be an accomplishment that I would treasure in my bettors resume.

The Super High Five is being offered for The Distaff (Ladies Classic)and the Classic.

My handicapping will be directed at the following;

The Filly and Mare Sprint (G1), The Filly and Mare Turf (G1), The Distaff (G1), The Dirt Mile (G1), The Turf (G1), The Mile (G1) and The Classic (G1). Seven races, five days of prep time left before I drive the 400 plus miles to Louisville. Let's get after it!

The Mile Grade 1 has thirteen pre-entrants and we'll study them all understanding some may not be in the starting gate next Saturday.

Byword (GB) is a five year old Juddmonte Farms runner trained by Andre Fabre.

3 wins in four ties at the distance and 7 wins in 14 starts over grass, 10 of 14 in the money. Winless in last two Grade 1 efforts, comes here off Grade 2 Qutar Prix Dollar.

Compliance Officer is trained by Bruce Brown for owner Thomas La Marca. The NY Bred 5 Year Old gelded son of Officer is 15 of 20 in the money on turf, 1 win in three starts at the turf mile, and has a career $409,000 earnings. Compliance Officer was claimed in May 2011 and has five straight wins but no graded stakes action.

Goldikova won't be mistaken for a NY State Bred. That said, he's a fine horse but this is a big step up.

Courageous Cat is the five year old son of Storm Cat, trained by Bill Mott. The chalk his last time out in the Woodbine Mile, nipped at the wire by Tullare the colt who's also entered here.

10 of 12 lifetime in the money over turf with six wins, 6 of 6 in the money at the distance with 3 wins and 2 places, 3 of 3 in 2011 in the money.

The Shoemaker Mile G1 July 2011

Trainer Mott wins 15% of his 2nd off 45-180 day layoffs and 20% of his 31-60 day layoffs. The horse appears to be training well.

What does Court Vision need to do to be retired? The Dale Roman's trained horse has had a rough 2011 and has only one win in last ten starts, the 2010 Woodbine Mile.

2 wins in 7 starts at the distance, winless in 4 tries at CD with a place and a show, including yielding turf Place by a neck in 2010 Turf Classic, losing to General Quarters.

I think it would take a reversal of fortune to see this old warrior in the top four.

Get Stormy is the 5 year old son of Stormy Atlantic and trained by Thomas Bush. The Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland includes Sidney's Candy and Gio Ponti.

10 wins in 25 turf starts and 8 wins/places out of 12 starts at the distance. 6 of 7 in the money in 2011 with back to back Grade 1 wins in April and May.

Here's the Baruch (G2) at SAR in August with Turallure over turf rated good. It's an extra furlong and the cut back may be good for him.

Gio Ponti; The six year old Christopher Clement trainee was struggling this year until winning the Shadwell Turf Mile in early October. A Place to Cape Blanco in the Arlington Millions, a Place to Cape Blanco in the Man O War in July at 1 3/8 miles, and a disappointing Show in the Manhattan. He went to Dubai and perhaps it just took him some time to recover. Unfortunately for Cape Blanco, he can't be here, I doubt Gio Ponti minds.

Clement wins 20% of his turf starts and 20% of his routes and Gio Ponti has earned over $6,000,000 lifetime. A real star.

Speaking of stars, Goldikova (Ire). An up and down year but her expectations are so high it's almost impossible for her to live up to them. Six grade one wins in last 10 starts, 14 wins in 19 tries at the distance, 19 of 19 at the distance in the money, 25 of 26 in the money over turf lifetime with 17 wins and $6,900,000 in earnings.

Qutar Prix de la Foret (G1) 2 October 2011; a head bob loss.

Just for fun, not much for homework purposes....

Jeranimo is the five year old son of Congaree. He's coming in for trainer Michael Bender(18% winner on 73 starts) off his career best Beyer in the Oak Tree Mile (G2) where he beat Mr. Commons, a race that I cannot find embeddable video for.

One win in three tries at a turf mile. 3 wins on Turf in 8 starts, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, 1 win in 7 starts in 2011. Most of the year, rather unimpressive. Here in the One Mile Arcadia (G2) he took a big late run to get up for Show.

He never fired in his next start, The Inglewood (G3), but came out of that and a well beaten Place in the G1 Eddie Read at 9 panels. Acclimation ran quite a race and Caracortado hasn't been impressive in this series but I digress.

Out of the Eddie Read, a dismal Pacific Classic (G1)and then the Oak Tree Mile. He's in much deeper waters here with his career $660,000 and six career wins in 22starts.

Mr. Commons would be oddly placed here if he starts; the 3 year old colt biggest win was a in a restricted stakes race, the Oceanside $112K. Was the beaten chalk to Jeranimo in the Oak Tree Mile. 4 of 4 in the money over turf with 2 wins, 1 win in 3 starts at the distance, 6 of 7 in the money in 2011. Started in the Preakness but didn't fire and also started Santa Anita Derby.

Very big step up to go here.

Sidney's Candy will be making his sixth start of 2011 and his fourth with Trainer Pletcher. His last race was the previously discussed Shadwell Turf Mile. Before that was a dud of a 7F race, the Forego, over dirt (great move...wished I was smart).

Just before that a good turf race, the Fourstar Dave (G2); Look for the grey, Turallure. :50 2/5ths opening 1/2 mile, ugh.

No wins in 3 starts at the distance over turf. 2 turf wins in 5 starts. He set the pace in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile before fading. Mixed feelings, liked him more in Sadler's barn, seems like he wasn't managed very dynamically for WinStar.

Strong Suit is trained by Richard Hannon for Qatar Bloodstock Ltd. The three year old son of Rahy campaigns in Europe and comes in off two Grade 2 wins at 7 furlongs, a straight and a right hander, over good turf. Three wins in last four. No left turn courses so far and only one try at 8 panels, the Grade 1 Prix Jean Prat, a show finish.

8 of 9 in the money over turf but winless at the distance and only one try. Are American turf runners that disrespected that its worth the airfare to send Strong Suit over? Well, respect is earned on the track.

Turallure has shown up in many videos here, impressive in almost all. Along with Get Stormy and Goldikova, only wins in the field at Churchill Downs. Training sharply at Keeneland. The 4 year old son of Wando has shown a very wicked late turn of foot for trainer Charles Lopresti. 2 wins at the distance in three starts and 9 of 11 in the money over grass.

And finally, Zoffany (Ire), Aidan O'Brien's 3 year old Dansili colt. No wins in three starts at the distance, with 2 Places. 9 of 12 in the money over turf with 5 wins. Never in contention was the running line in the Shadwell Turf Mile. His last euro effort, Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1) in August at 6.5 furlongs he was trounced. Last win was in August 2010, G1 Phoenix Stakes at six panels.

His claim to fame was staying close to Frankel in the St. James Stakes (G1) in June.

My inital thoughts are:

A Group: Turallure, Goldikova, Gio Ponti, Courageous Cat

B Group: Byword (GB) , Jeranimo, Sidney's Candy

C Group: Strong Suit, Zoffany (Ire) , Get Stormy (B?)

D Group: Court Vision, Compliance Officer, Mr. Commons (C?)

Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic

2011-10-22T12:00:00.006-04:00

That's Kay, the Turk Family Weimaraner, getting her Breeders' Cup handicappers homework in. We've studied some of the contenders for the Turf in our last post and today we will look at the Classic.

I'm not sure my first emotion when I look at the contenders for the Classic. Underwhelmed? Disappointed? I dunno. Sure it's exciting the idea of a filly, Harve de Grace, as a serious contender, and the idea of Uncle Mo returning to Churchill Downs where he won the Juvenile a year ago and seemingly was a Triple Crown threat that never materialized (The Timely Writer?....nice move), but the rest of the field is really lacking star power, or is it?

I've been asked to handicap this race for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I was honored to be chosen to handicap such a prestigious race by one of my favorite horse racing organizations so I am hopeful that I can identify someone that can come here and win as an overlay. I'm going to try and set aside the "fan" in me and take a strong look at the expected entries and see who is peaking at the right time.

Let's Get after it!

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes

2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding

Irish Champion Stakes

15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes

Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon.

2011 Met Mile

2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs

Tizway, the son of Tiznow, will be my emotional chalk for the Classic, but it's not like he isn't talented enough to pull it off. The reports of his work at Belmont, where he shipped in to run over a faster strip of dirt, have been excellent.

Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.

2011 Jockey Gold Cup

2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out

Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby

This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.

Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011

I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes

I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy

10f The Travers Stakes

I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes

...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap

Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011

Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.

Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.

2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff

Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame

The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on

Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Turf

2011-10-15T19:10:00.008-04:00

The 'Ol Turk will be handicapping and hunting for exotic payout Nirvana at the Breeders' Cup, and Handicappers Homework before the Past Performances are printed and red ink is applied to them aids the process.

It goes without saying, the Europeans add a real layer of complexity to the handicapping. Speaking as a bettor, I think it helps that there is a real visceral feeling out there that the Europeans on turf are vastly superior. Maybe they are, and let the big money flow to them, it will be our job with the homework to know as much as we can about them so we can determine which North American runner has a chance, as an overlay, of taking down the house.

Nathaniel, trained by John Gosden in the King George and Queen E Stakes. Caution, poor Rewilding is seen breaking down. If you have a moment, read the comments of Trainer John Gosden, one of the Turk's favorite conditioners. I admire this man greatly.

Sea Moon is trained by Sir Michael Stout. The colt would be coming in off a Show finish in the St. Leger.

I've found some comments related to Sea Moon's stamina, which Trainer Stoute seems to dismiss and the connections intentions for the Breeders' Cup seem to be firmed up as well.

St Nicholas Abby is trained by Aidan O'Brien. The Montjeu colt was fifth in the Arc. Don't look for the filly Danedream in Louisville but Treasure Beach we'll get too.

All this does is state the obvious, that with defections, we may see some horses in the Turf that will be looking at the race as chalk free and opportunity city. We have to keep in mind that not every European sent here is top tier.

Aidan O'Brien's other expected starter is Treasure Beach who is starting in Woodbine on October 16th. Some pretty darn good horses, including possible turf starter Dean's Kitten, went into the gate on Arlington Millions Day and here is Treasure Beach taking the Secretariat Stakes

And another strong Treasure Beach effort, the Irish Derby.

Winchester would be coming in off a horrid Joe Hirsch, but Belmont that day was a bog with no real turf pace. Look for Dean's Kitten again. Don't worry handicapping poor Cape Blanco, that fine horse was retired after this effort because of injury.

Winchester was much stronger in the Sword Dancer. Look for Teak's North as well, another possible Turf starter.

And the United Nations, Teak's North punches his ticket for the Turf.

And speaking of punching tickets, Celtic New Year earned a trip to the Turf with a win in Del Mar, in the Del Mar Handicap. A great trip but really gutty holding off Bourbon Bay.

What I've taken away from this is so far I see no real favorite and I'm sure the next week will be interesting, as some folks out there who didn't consider this race may not start to look at this as the wide open affair it is shaping up to be and may take a swing at it. Building a Superfecta out of this may be really challenging but we could be looking at a five figure Super so its worth the try.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 15, 2011; The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland

2011-10-15T16:00:00.002-04:00

I'm here on this day of rage to represent the 1%; The 1% of horseplayers who are getting phat off the pari mutuel losses of the oppressed 99% betting public. You poor, downtrodden masses, lined up at the betting windows like lemmings, The Ol' Turk is a benevolent 1% type, offering my Truck Nutz Iron Pipe Locks of the Week for free. Win some bread money and any left over, do something humanitarian like save a horse.

All kidding aside, there are some pari mutuel winnings just sitting there waiting to be had each week. You have to pick your marks and you have to know when to just sit back and be a horse fan with no skin in the game. The card in today's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland is stacked and earns its Grade 1 status; Winter Memories, Together(Ire) ,Summer Soiree, the Breeders' Cup Champ, More Than Real; Wow. We're going to handicap this and have some fun, but there are much easier races this weekend to beat the odds.

Let's get after it today!

Before we go to deep, I pulled up some key race videos that you should take a strong look at. The Fillies and Mares continue to be just a wildly exciting and deep group. These are some of the more sterling runs of the year.

The Del Mar Oaks Grade 1 (20 Aug 2011)

The First Lady Grade 1 (8 Oct 2011)

The Garden City Grade 1 (17 September 2011)

From the outside, with Ramon Dominguez up is Summer Soiree, the Del Mar Oaks champ. The War Front daughter has 4 wins in 5 tries in 2011 including two sizzling turf efforts. Off since August 20, Trainer Motion is 25% off this layoff and a 25% winner Won Last Start. Not sure who she beat at at Del Mar as Nereid and Star Billing are a lower tier here.

The Turk loves Winter Memories and wants to see her win here, but the bettor in me tries to keep an even keel about these things. The beautiful El Prado (Ire) daughter has 6 wins in 8 starts over turf and her last race she closed like a freight train with a turn of foot that defines turn of foot. There should be plenty of speed for her to focus on over the last 1/8 of a mile.

Together (Ire)is a Galileo (Ire) daughter trained by Aidan O'Brien runs back on one week layoff after a willing Place , 1 1/2 lengths off the winner of the First Lady (as an aside, don't cha love the TRACKUS video feeds!. A 21 day layoff in September saw her come back sluggish and an 8 day layoff as a 2 YO was similar results. No wins in 7 starts this season.

Kathmanblu is a very honest girl with a turf master, Leparoux up. 9 of 13 in the money lifetime, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, she'll be in the exotic mix.

It may be time to say that More Than Real had a great trip in the Breeders' Cup but has never stepped forward after that. 2nd lowest lifetime Beyer, never breaking 90 in 6 races. Don't expect much here.

Trainer Shirreffs has two talented girls here with Star Billing and Nereid. Both are off the layoff since the Del Mar Oaks, a break Shirreffs wins off of 14% of the time. Star Billing is 5 of 5 in the money on turf but no wins at the distance. Nereid won 3 of 4 starts over turf and 4 of 4 in the money, but also no wins at the distance.

So what to make of all this? Nereid , Marketing Mix and More Than RealSummer Soiree may rate a bit back after breaking from the outside. Kathmanblu will position in a stalk, 2 lengths back, and a blanket of closers will lay as much as 3 back with Star Billing, Together and Winter Memories all watching each other. This race will be settled in the final hops and i'm leaning towards Winter Memories. I'll assemble a superfecta with the tote board chalk in the top four.

Have fun with it friends. Turk Out!

Keeneland Analysis after Day 2

2011-10-08T21:44:00.006-04:00

The old Keeneland Tote Board; Be it new, old, analog, digital or scratched out in chalk, it doesn't matter, but as a horse player it pays to pay attention to it before and after the races.

I've taken a few different views of the races, broken down by Turf and Poly. I'm less interested in handicapping analysis and more focus is on what financial returns are being generated, specifically for the Superfecta, and what the ranking on the tote board was the top four finishers.

Let's get after it starting with Poly:

13 of the first 14 poly races had the Chalk finish in the top 4; Two of the three biggest Super payouts were keyed by the Chalk; The Winner with the lowest odds keyed the biggest Superfecta. The Average field size on POLY was 9.71 Starters.

Post One won 2 out of 14 races and was in the Superfecta 5 of 14 races.

7 races of the 14 poly races had 3 out of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta and the average pay out was $2,800. One race had 4 of 4 from the tote board rankings but still paid $724.

Of the 14 winners, 5 pressed the pace, 4 took a stalking trip and 5 closed like freight trains.

And now the Turf:

Six races on Turf, all raced on Firm turf. 4 Chalks made the Superfecta with 2 Chalk winners. The Average number of starters was 9.83 and Post 1 was 0 of 6 wins and only 1 of 6 in in Superfecta.

4 of the 6 races had 3 of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta with the average payout $760.

Of the six winners, only one was pressing the pace at the top of the Stretch; 3 horses were in a stalking position of around 1 1/2 lengths back and 3 horses were closing about 2 back by the top of the stretch.

The sample size isn't large but what I glean is that chalk generally finishes in the top four and of the first 20 races, 12 of 20 had at least 3 of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta.

Learn to keep your own data, data that helps you with either your handicapping or your bet structuring. I could think of many more data points I'd like to track, many of them based on handicapping. The most key item for me to research is how the morning line favorite and the Tote board Favorite lined up with The Ol' Turk's Chalk.

I hope someone found this as interesting as I do; I often talk shop with fellow bettors and without sounding like a pompous prick I try to stress that its this sort of post race analysis, which doesn't take long and normally I would do on a Wednesday night when I'm not handicapping, that really helps unlock who's winning and how well the bettors are pegging the winners.

I'd be remiss to not say that I am a big fan of Steve Byk and his At The Races show on XM Sirius Radio. Steve has a wonderful format and he gets some fantastic recurring guests as well as all the major players in the sport. Steve is one hell of a horse player and I respect him as a handicapper very much. Steve's also a very passionate guy and I finally got around to listening to Steve talk about Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds; Steve tastefully talked about the online horse racing community on Facebook which I am a minor member of, but Tim was almost the lynch pin of online horse racing fans, the catalyst that got many a good discussions going. I know almost two weeks after his death I miss his comments dearly. If you are interested you'll find Steve talking about Tim abround 5 minutes into the first hour at this link.

Life goes on for the living but Tim's memory will live on for a very long time.

Have fun friends with your handicapping; I have the Grade 1 Spinster lined up for tomrrow.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 7, 2011; Keeneland Fall Meet Opening Day

2011-10-07T19:22:00.006-04:00

Friends, don't hate the Player! I'm not sure I could have scripted my gambling action on opening day at Keeneland any better than today unfolded. Handicap or Bet Structure? Both really. Simple boxed Superfectas using my base handicaps and being prepared enough to deal with seven scratches in race 7 is the story of the day.

Let's get after this:

Keeneland Race 7-8

I didn't have abundant time to prepare a bet strategy today because as opposed to those folks living down on Wall Street, I'm fully employed and earning my right to be indebted.

I kept it simple; Race 7 had a whopping seven scratches. I took my top four from my base handicap and boxed them and $455 later the strategy was proven adequate. I really thought Blues Street could win and I liked his place on the tote board as the bettors 3rd favorite. As he was my chalk, I was contrarian. In my mind this was a pretty straightforward and rather easy bet to make, but that's hindsight. The handicap was solid and I didn't need to over think it. They don't always break that way. I would have bet the same way even if the scratched horses had run, but the payout would have been better. Sigh.

Race 8 is where I feel my experience kicks in. Speaking of opposing view points I placed Flashpoint no higher than Show in my base handicap. He had been training lights out on the fake plastic for Trainer Ward but was racing on it for the first time. Always demand to see results first, don't bet an underlay that hasn't proven himself on the surface.

Prerace I expressed my intrigue in Hoofit (Nz). Not much on the PP's would point you to a win except a nice last race on the plastic at PID. The bettors had him 6th, I had him at least in Fourth. I took my top five and boxed them and walked off with $1,182.

I'm pretty pleased with the three hours of effort I put into these handicaps. This was a good day, and as a gambler you must understand they won't all be like this.

Have fun friends and thank you for making the launch of Turf so successful.

The Nomination Is In: October 7, 2011: Keeneland Opening Day Fall 2011

2011-10-06T21:56:00.008-04:00

I love the beauty of Keeneland. I love the ebb and flow that Keeneland provides the racing calendar; the start of spring, the end of summer, like bookends on the turf racing season. I love the beauty of the track and the details that seem to pop out when you take time to just look. I'd like to rant about the fake plastic dirt, and I won't lie, I'd rather it was dirt, but it seems to play fair and it does allow for racing and handicapping in the sometimes horrible weather that can accompany these meets, so I'm going to say I don't mind it and have come to be as accepting of it here as I am Arlington, Woodbine and PID. Now Del Mar and Hollywood, don't get me started.

When I went looking for a picture that screamed Keeneland I found a clock, a majestic Rolex clock, taken by a wonderful writer, the talented Michigan Bred Claimer, Joe Nevills, who I thank for its use.

I handicapped a sequence of races that lead to a late Pick Three that finishes with the Grade 1 Alcibiades. i really dislike two year old racing and I just can't seem to get that interested in the Grade 1 affair so out with the Pick 3 and we'll just focus on a very nice Allowance Race on Turf and a Grade 3 sprint on the plastic. Let's get it on!

Twelve horses should enter the gate in a $58,000 allowance, 1 mile on what should be firm turf. I placed Blue's Street on top, but the chalk isn't that heavy. A Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner, recently shifted by Anstu Stables to Eddie Kennelly's barn from the trainer Pletcher. A real dog last time out, Kenneally is a 24% winner with first timers and Blues Street is a talented 7 YO gelded son of Street Cry (Ire): 12 of 12 in the money at the distance, 17 of 27 in the money on Turf, 5 of last 9 in the money. Leparoux is up. I do not believe he will be the bettor's chalk, that honor most likley will go to Yankee Fourtune, so I am looking for an a good price as well.

There is lots to like about Yankee Fourtune and the only thing i don't care for is the long layoff, but McLaughlin hits 32% off this sort of extended rest. MClaughlin places Alan Garcia up, and they combine for 27% winners at KEE over past year in 11 tries. 5 wins in 6 tries on turf, gotta love the will to win, a nice contract to Bim Bam who we'll get too.

Not much separating my next layer, Moryba (Brz) and Bim Bam. Morya (Brz), trained by Bill Mott, is a fairly consistent runner cutting back in distance. 9 of 15 in the money on turf and competitive in his Grade 2 races this year.

Bim Bam has no wins in last 15 starts and zero of 9 in 2011 while getting up for Place 6 times in last 20 and 12 of last 27 Place or Show. Doesn't seem to want to win but more than capable of 4th.

I have Hollinger next but Mikoshi is better overall; Mikoshi is a 5 year old Orientate horse trained by Matz with Go Go Gomez up. Winless in two tries at KEE, 1 win in six starts at distance, but 15 of 20 in the money turf. Last time out at Woodbine he laid an egg. His post and his last effort will have to be reversed but tough spot.

Hollinger has two Show finishes in last 7 races, never won at the distance and only 1 turf win in 5 tries. Trainer Attfield is pretty sharp and would not be surprised if he scratches out of here.

Cherokee Artist has Johnny V up for Trainer Motion. I'm actually going to flip flop him and Hollinger in my base handicap. No wins in 5 tries at the distance, 1 win in 10 tries on turf, winless at KEE and 1 win in last 13.

I'll build a superfecta out of this, matrixed as I won't cover any of the exotic picks in the win spot.

In the Grade 3 Phoenix, I think Aikenite is a deserving chalk and I expect he will be the chalk at post time. 3 of 4 in the money at KEE with 2 wins. Pletcher and Johnny Velazquez win 41% of KEE starts and 29% overall in past year on a whopping 705 starts together.

Sterling Outlook has been claimed twice in past six months and last out gamely dead heated a win at 6 furlongs at Del Mar with a 101 BSF. Trainer Saddler places Gomez up and the two win 235 of the time together. 2 wins on fake dirt in 9 tries. Feast or famine I reckon.

Hamazing Destiny is very reliable and honest. Trainer Lucas is looking for a graded stakes win, with an unthinkable zero for 69 streak in the rolling year. 5 of 10 in the money at the distance.

Flashpoint is training very fast on the fake stuff, banging out :59 and change 5f workouts at KEE. First time racing on plastic so how the Pomeroy son performs, who knows. Could get bet down to the chalk and maybe the bettors are right but I'm not there yet. He's very good though so we'll cover the top spot with him. Trainer Ward very respected here at The Turk and Little Turk.

Only other horse I'm covering is a bit of value, Hoofit (Nz) . I'm not sure what to expect but he ran well at PID in September.

The Turk has never been very successful at Keeneland, especially the poly races. I'll be playing quite a few early to get a feel for it and we'll see if we can't do a bit better here.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Horse players, in late September horse racing lost a super fan, in fact the HRN Fan of the Year, "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds. Please consider a completely tax deductible donation to help for the education fund of Tim's daughter, Lauren.

There are so many people and organizations that need our help, I know that, but if possible, please help the family of one of our own, a horse racing fan who oozed passion for this sport and who is dearly missed by his friends and family.

Thank You friends. Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Classic Betting Options and Handicappers Homework

2011-10-04T00:01:00.002-04:00

Yes, I'm going to talk betting menus and Breeders' Cup Classic statistics but before I go to far, today is the grand unveiling of Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers, a group that I am an invited member of. This collection of twenty bloggers, while all individual voices, isn't just a blog aggregate site. In our introductory press release, one of our six founding members, Valerie Grash defined our goal as "...to gather the best the blogosphere had to offer in regards to the coverage of horse racing...where readers can easily find select and thought provoking writing by individuals invested in sharing their love for the sport." Well said Valerie and thank you for inviting me.

My blog, The Turk and the Little Turk, has been a labor of love for three years now. If you don't know me, let me introduce myself and my blog. I am The Turk. Yes I have a name, but don't expect me to use it much here. The Turk moniker was not an uncommon nickname in handicapper circles in the sixties and seventies and I reckon every OTB and backstretch had a "Turk" and a "Greek". Not too long ago I read an obituary of a World War II veteran which he was described as a longtime horse player whose nickname was "The Turk". I feel a kinship with the older generations and I hope I carry on this man's legacy well.

I picked my nickname up in 1986 when a bunch of sailor buddies of mine got sick of hearing me talk about Turkoman, especially after Precisionist smoked him. It was a friendly taunt that I wore as a badge of honor. The Little Turk is my eleven year old son, a Korean-American with an uncanny knack for picking winners out of the horses I inaccurately toss out.

I've been in the game a long time but don't expect breaking news, trainer quotes, insider information or controversial opinions on matters I know little of: I'm a handicapper. I take a red gel pen to Daily Racing Form Past Performances and I apply my derivative techniques to construct exotic vertical and horizontal betting structures from my base handicaps. I build my handicaps in advance of the post parade with each of the horses identified by "layer"; where in the field a particular runner will finish, be it W-P-S, the Exotic 4th, or my toss outs, the Also-Ran's.

I will identify what sort of bet structure I intend to build and often, not always, I'll post the exact bet. I believe in watching the tote board and being prepared to alter your bet structure within the confines of the base handicap, albeit slightly, if opportunity presents itself. After the race I'll break down the race chart and we'll try to learn something in hindsight about why we won or lost.

I have my quirks; I don't read much in advance of the racing, preferring to only study the past performance information, race charts and YOU TUBE race videos to avoid outside bias. I also ignore morning line odds. A good example of why this can be very helpful was this past weekend at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon. Turning Top (Ire), a 5 year old that was 13 of 21 in the money on Turf, a 402 Tomlinson, 3 of 5 in the money on Santa Anita turf but a woeful one of six in the money in 2011, but all Grade 2 with one Grade 1 effort. It was her third effort off of a clearly needed break. In my mind this horse was top six in a nine horse field and she was in my superfecta mix. The bettors didn't see it that way and she was pushed down to the lowest odds on the board. When she hit the wire in fourth she provided the only value in a chalky Superfecta. Her morning line odds? 20-1. She fell to 46-1 before the race began. It's these contrarian thoughts where I find value choices. Bias can influence you in all sort of ways and you'll hear me tell you to block out the bias (including Internet hacks like me) at least until you make your selections.

The Internet is a big place; If we are going to make horse racing relevant again culturally it will be at the grass roots level. The Turk is neither a journalist nor an irreverent or irresponsible writer: I hope you come and visit my blog, share your thoughts, take something away like I have taken away from the handicappers I respect the most. There are lots of places to find interesting voices in racing , be it new media, old media, or a melting pot of both journalists and others crashing the party. The Turk is also a proud member of The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Raceday 360 as well as a sometimes contributor to various sites such as Hello Race Fans! and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner.

Now that I rambled my gums at you...

The Breeders' Cup is a unique event in American horse racing, especially since getting the Stretch Armstrong treatment and turning into a two day festival. Churchill Downs will be packed with the true believers, horse racing fans who know their stuff. The mostly Grade I level racing will feature cards that read like the who's who of the particular division, multiple graded stakes winners and racing millionaires who suddenly find themselves overlays. I find the best way to handle the excitement of being at the track on big days like this is to be prepared; All races I intend to bet will be base handicapped and I'll have some idea of how I intend to build my bets, along with a budget that I won't exceed. It's a bit too early to start handicapping, but I will do my homework over the next week and put in the preparation for how these races have been unfolding and what sort of odds I should expect.

When I walk into Churchill Downs I'll be prepared with pre-made scratch pads to take the tote board information and layer it over my handicaps, helping me make the final decisions that will define which particular exotic option is best.

The tentative betting menu was released. There are Pick Five's with fifty-cent minimums, ten cent Superfecta's and a Pick Six that will carry over to Saturday if its not hit on Friday. There will be rolling Pick Threes, one Pick Four on Friday that ends with the Distaff or the Ladies Classic and two Pick Fours on Saturday. There is also a Distaff-Classic Double and $1 Super High Five's for both the Distaff and the Classic, with the Distaff High Five payout carrying over to the Classic which will have a mandatory payout.

That's alot to digest but digest it friends and start thinking about what your primary targets will be. I've got a soft spot for the Super High Fives.

I've spent sometime on the front end of my homework looking at some historical information.

What to glean? Only three chalks in past eleven years have won; Chalks have been in the Super High Five nine of eleven years; The bettors second favorites have only hit the board 4 times, only once as high a Show; The average winners odds: $10.12-1.

It's going to be a fun month of preparation. I hope you join me each post.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 1 October 2011; Goodwood Stakes Day at Santa Anita

2011-10-02T10:38:00.009-04:00

Zazu, with Rosario up, closed like a freight train in silks familiar with winning the Lady's Secret. Thanks to kimpossible's Flickr feed for the use of this picture. Zazu is such a wonderful filly who flies under the radar in relation to the crop of fillies and mares in training now. I'm not the kind of blogger that often asks these questions, but is the F&M collection racing in the past 3 years one of the best groups ever? I'm going with yes.

I hope everyone enjoyed Super Saturday. As I lamented on Facebook, I skipped betting Belmont yesterday and simply enjoyed the races as a fan. Small fields, a rail bias that was indisputable, and seriously heavy duty rain proof chalk; it just doesn't amount to a race track investment of our hard earned capital.

I loved seeing Uncle Mo romp and Harve de Grace look smashing, and a bit south of Elmont, I was really excited by Plum Pretty, but for gambling opportunity, I looked to the Great Race Place, ultimately to mixed results, if $2.01 for every dollar bet can be considered failure.

I like to dwell on what I left on the table, and a $8,733 Superfecta was attainable and a $1,122 trifecta was mine if I would have just placed the bet. Spilled milk, but it's what I preach about here; studying the results, understanding why you won and lost. It really does help improve your betting habits more than anything else.

Let's get after it!

Santa Anita wasn't immune to the nationwide chalk celebration yesterday. While I won the P3, the return wasn't spectacular, but I did do it on a $16 dollar bet.

What did I do right yesterday: The Lady's Secret was pretty straight forward. I said pre race I didn't expect Blind Luck to win. I thought she'd be fourth and if I would have been braver i would have put her 5th. She needed a break, she's smaller than Harve de Grace, and maybe, just maybe her second race off the break is better, but who knows. Ultra Blend is ultra dependable to hit the board, now 13 straight.

In the Goodwood I had Game On Dude to win along with the betting public. I had Miss Match (Arg) in the top four while the bettors had her sixth. Yawn, Super win $12.80 for a ten center.

In the eighth, a $48,000 N1X, where a semi professional gambler should have an advantage over the less educated money that watches only the graded stakes, I had Mega Heat in my top four, had Irish Art for Place, had Romeo Royale in the top four. This alone would have paid a good trifecta payout, but I was either lazy or unfocused and didn't bet it. Most weekends if I was more aggressive I would have gotten the Super. I wasn't high on Utopian and the horses didn't help as I had Renegade Storm and Oak Kye Why covered. I pride myself on preparation and not betting when I'm not prepared. I should have passed yesterday. Well, I'm not a computer, I know that, so I'll mourn the money left on the table and refocus, which I did for the Yellow Ribbon.

In the Yellow Ribbon, a turf affair that is right in my wheelhouse, I felt the handicap was straight forward. I believed Turning Top (Ire)was much better than the ninth she was on the tote board. I had the top five played pretty good. I missed on Malibu Pier, and Cambina (Ire) didn't come until too late. Not perfect, but a good way to end the day.

Not too many more multiple graded stakes days left on the 2011 calendar, sans Breeder's Cup weekend. Enjoy them while you can.

I'm working on analysis of the Breeder's Cup Classic over the past 10 years as well as some early thoughts on the betting strategy I'll employ in November. Good stuff friends.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: 1 October 2010: The Lady's Secret/Goodwood Stakes Pick 3 and the Yellow Ribbon at Santa Anita

2011-10-01T10:13:00.008-04:00

The worst case scenario; With five weeks to go until the Breeders' Cup, this weekend's fantastic slate of Graded Stakes was for me the start of my Breeders' Cup handicapping. With the rains impacting Belmont's surfaces, but really, smallish fields in the Kelso and Beldame, I'm going to just be a horse racing fan today for Super Saturday and instead be a bettor at the Great Race Place, Santa Anita. Sure I can still gleen something from Belmont today, but it won't apply the first weekend in November, the weather is going to be beautiful and the track fast and turf firm (dear God, please give me this :-) )

It's not every weekend you get the lineup of stars we have today: Stay Thirsty, Jersey Town, Jackson Bend, Uncle Mo,Royal Delta, Life at Ten, Havre de Grace, Euroears, Blind Luck, Zazu, Coil, Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Cambina(pictured above), Malibu Pier and Harmonious to name my favorites today.

Some would argue (including this idiot Internet hack at times) that the sport doesn't have stars. I'd argue we have plenty of stars, it's the trainers(who in my equally dubious and most likely ill informed opinion) don't do enough to market the sport by not running them more frequently. Before I go off ranting about the state of horse racing and the black hole of a discussion on how to fix it, let me just stop and say that there is alot of good in horse racing, evidenced last night at Charles Town, where race one was named after a good friend, and one of the sports great grass roots ambassadors, Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds. I put a You Tube video up of Tim handicapping the Derby just to give you a flavor for the wit and intellect, as well as the race educated passion. Tim will be missed and his loss sits like a great void, as he often was the catalyst that got many a great race conversation going. As us humans are known to do, after we lose someone we pick ourselves up and we keep going, one foot in front of the other, never forgetting our dead, but life must be lived.

Speaking of the Tim Memorial race, The Little Turk does it again, hoping on one of my toss outs, J.J. Devil to win the race at $42.60. The Little Turk is about to test for his black belt and yes I am afraid; He's got ice in his veins as a 'capper and feet of steel. Pretty soon this will be the Little Turk and the Turk blog.

If you're still reading and haven't bailed out of my blathering yet, let's get after today's work!

In typical fashion on the West Coast, and most likely in search of the almighty simulcast bucks, the races don't unfold on the card like they would on the East Coast. You can whine about it or just embrace it, and I'm long past whining about it. I didn't see a Pick 4 option and I don't waste time on Pick 6, so I assembled a Pick 3 out of The Lady's Secret, The Goodwood, and a nice N1X on the turf, and then I'll take a a few races off to eat the lamb shanks I'm preparing for dinner and come back for the 10 furlong Grade I Yellow Ribbon. This is a good day's worth of horse racing but if I could digress just a bit, it seems to me horse racing misses an opportunity by not having a Super Saturday and a Super Sunday 5 weeks before Breeders' Cup and I don't see why Belmont couldn't have put even a better card together today and then had Santa Anita bring it home tomorrow with stacked lineup of Grade 1 action. Anyway....

In full disclosure, I handicapped late into the night last night and with the week I've had, I'm not sure I'm at the top of my game. I've learned as a handicapper, but really as a bettor, that what works for me is repetition and discipline to my techniques and methods. While I may feel a bit "emotional" still about the loss of Tim, or feel a bit stressed by my job which is very demanding, I've done my handicapping and followed my usual approach so I will push aside any anxiety I may have and follow through on the betting. How many of you had your best days when you thought you were going to suck? Do your business, bet consistently and over the course of time the results will become consistent.

The Lady's Secret is delectable field of seven and I think five of them legitimately could hit the board. When I'm faced with parity I'll often step back and ask myself what I think the trainers ultimate goal is with his mount:Is he there to win this race or is he looking to sharpen the knife for the next effort. Of course you can do both, but when you're stumped never forget to ask yourself as you review each horse on the PP's "Why is he/she here?"

Why is Blind Luck here? Is it to win the The Lady's Secret or is it to be sharp next month; unraced since she nosed out Harve de Grace in mid July, working strongly, but Hollendorfer is 10% off the 60-180 day break, clearly his mindset in general is to sharpen for the real prize. Now usually I'll ramble like this and Blind Luck will go out and win by 7 lengths, and that could happen, but I think today she'll hit the board and really be tuning up more than anything. Another oddity, Hollendorfer and Go Go have yet to win at SA after 10 races in past year.

I love Blind Luck and its like a holiday to me anytime my favorites are running.

I'm backing Ask the Moon tentatively. I'm a layer handicapper and I'm not that hung up on the exact finish, but I am a value bettor and I'm thinking Ask the Moon would provide good value to the P3 and the Superfecta I'll assemble if she finishes on top. She comes in off a 10 furlong effort at SAR at the end of the meet, coming off a very impressive Ruffian Grade 1 win at the beginning of the Saratoga festivities. The six year old has really responded to Trainer Wolfson since coming to his barn and for a horse that was claimed for $75K not five months ago, what a return she's made for her new connections that believed in her. Maybe she steps back after those exerting efforts, again "Why is she here and where is she in her form cycle?" We'll find out.

Zazu seems primed for the second half of the race year: 3 of 3 in the money at SA, 3 of 4 in the money at the distance, 3 of 4 on fast dirt and 6 of 6 in the money in 2011. She's working bullets at 6f in 1:11 2/5ths.

Ultra Blend? Nothing fancy, just reliable. She is an incredible 12 of 12 in the money from 2010 through 2011. No reason to believe she won't fire into the top four today.

The Goodwood Stakes is always a race the Turk looks forward to, except when it was run on the fake dirt and i just didn't care much about it, but its back on dirt and I'm thrilled. I expected to see more wins for trainer Baffert in the Goodwood but unless I miscounted he has two, including last years at Hollywood with Richard's Kid. He had a little horse called Silver Charm that did pretty good in this race too! I like his chances to make it three wins with both Coil and Game On Dude in the gate.

The Haskell winner Coil was abysmal in the Travers. I just have to let that go and I'm expecting a bounce back but as a three year old I'll defer to his older stable mate, Game On Dude: The Big Cap winner is 5 of 6 in the money in 2011, his only out the money finish being his last effort, the Pacific Classic at Del Mar where he stalked and couldn't finish. That was a deeper and more classy group than is running here and I think he looks pretty good in this spot.

With Acclimation defecting off the dirt, a wise choice in my opinion, I like the combo of Miss Match, the fields lone lady, and the veteran Awesome Gem to press for the top four. Miss Match won at the distance on this surface, or at least what was this surface before it was tinkered with again, back in March, a big upset of Switch. The Little Turk is on Awesome Gem today, so be warned. I'm curious about Mandella's Preamble. the distance may be an issue but 3 wins in 3 starts on dirt and 3 of 4 at Santa Anita who has Espinoza up. Mandella/Espinoza combine for 26% winners at SA on 27 starts over past year.

I'll keep the P3 reasonably covered without going overboard. After handicapping it appears that these are more fan races than betting opportunities, but that said, we've set the table, we will serve dinner!

The allowance race, an N1X, is a bettors black hole often. I'm a big fan of Allowance racing though, its like the gateway between graded stakes, my typical domain, and the lower depths. You have a greater mix of classes, rising and falling, and you really have to ask the question "why are they here" when you handicap these races. The "Super Trainers" and the "Super Jocks" padded those gaudy stats against lesser foes in these events, but if you can hop off of "bad money magnets" and find value, these races can offer just beautiful payouts. I like Carla Gaines Irish Art and Make Me Believe. I have no idea how the bettors will respond to these runners so I've built my base handicap but my betting will be influenced by the tote board.

The Yellow Ribbon is like hair of the dog, in case you haven't had enough, dive in again. Cambina (Ire) seems primed by Trainer Jeff Bonde. a very strong late run by the 3 YO in the 9 furlong Del Mar Oaks, up against older ladies here, she's trained sharply and I like the 10 panel win two efforts back in the American Oaks at HOL.

Speaking of Carla Gaines runners, Malibu Pier is a Turk favorite. a two time Grade 2 winner, 2 wins at 10 furlongs, 7 of 9 in the money on turf and a stalker that will at least be in the action the last few hops to the wire.

Cozi Rosie comes in for trainer Sadler who is 22% of 30-60 day breaks. Distance may be a concern here, winless in two tries, (but two Places) for the the four year old daughter of Pleasantly Perfect (now that was a horse!) 7 of 8 in the money on turf.

This is a fun race! You got Harmonious, Turning Top (Ire) , City to City and Dubawi Heights (GB) all ready to pounce if any ofthe above falter. Really good stuff here.

Have fun friends. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 30, 2011; The Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds Memorial at Charles Town

2011-09-29T19:08:00.008-04:00

I live in a cocoon of my own invention. A womb. Perhaps it's the years I spent in the military or an entire adult life lived rigidly in the only way I know; my own. I don't let new people into my world easily. Several years ago, before I ever heard the term "social media" I lamented that for someone as outgoing as I was in my 20's, I became stodgy and unapproachable in my 40's. After I started The Turk and the Little Turk in 2008 I began meeting horse racing fans online, at my blog, at Facebook, now Twitter and maybe Google + next.

I met Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds not quite two years ago. He was outgoing, funny, easy to talk to. I can't claim to have known him well, but we exchanged messages more often than I even realized, that is until I went back and reread my Facebook wall and realized we spoke many times a week. The comments we shared ranged the whole gamut of male conversation, from humorous to raunchy, almost always about food/horses/booze. I considered Tim my friend.

The world lost Tim this week. The damage his death brought rippled out from its epicenter and touched hundreds of people who knew him like I knew him, on the fringes of life where daily human contact and friends via "social media" merge.

I mourn for the loved ones Tim left behind. My heart was genuinely touched seeing the world of online horse racing fans converge around Tim's family during these difficult days. A scholarship fund has already been set up, and with the help of the wonderful people at The Thorofan, contributions for young Lauren, Tim's daughter, are tax deductible. I'm going to miss Tim's comments, and I'm going to miss seeing him in the paddock at the Breeders' Cup in seven weeks, I'm just going to miss the young man who oozed passion for life and his loves.

Tomorrow is Tim's wake and then he will be buried on Saturday. Please keep the family in your prayers, a family that already buried their other son two short years ago.

The great people at Charles Town named Friday night's first race in honor of Tim, and never has a race deserved a Turk nomination as this one does.

Let's get after it!

It's a $5,000 Claimer for West Virginia bred Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up. I've handicapped and will build my bet after I see the odds closer to post. Mama Turk is liking Blingtastic and Little Turk is all over J.J's Devil.

Saturday night I'm going to tie a good drunk on. I'll be sitting at my kitchen table, with a bottle of 'Ol Number 7, playing the ponies on Super Saturday at Belmont, but mourning in my own way. A good cigar later on Sunday and I'll try and banish the darkness of the past week and only remember the funny exchanges that Tim and I shared, like the one about how Jack Daniels Honey Whiskey leaves an aftertaste like pancakes.

I don't know about you all, but music helps and nobody mourns like the Irish.

Turk Out!

Rest in Peace Tiznow Tim

2011-09-26T21:42:00.005-04:00

You meet people during the course of living life. You meet people and some leave an impression and others don't. What I notice first about people is their intensity; Are they passionate? When they speak, does love flow from them for what they talk about? Are they humorous, self effacing?

One of the Turk's best Facebook friends passed away and the world of horse racing is so much less interesting because of his loss. "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds was the real deal; handsome, funny, passionate.

"You can push me into the cold water
But you can't hold me under

You can bring me down
But you can't make me beg

It's so hard to stay honest
In a world that's headed to hell
You can't make a good living these days
'Cause the truth just don't sell"

Rest in Peace Tim. I will miss your comments in a way I never thought possible.

Happy Third Aniversary Turk and Little Turk

2011-09-21T20:55:00.007-04:00

The older Turk gets, the more wistful Turk becomes. My post tonight marks the third anniversary of The Turk and Little Turk blog. We've welcomed 20,577 visitors through the front door in those three years or 571 people a month. The individual readers mean an awful lot to me, much more than the meager traffic number represents in the blogging world.

I've become friends with many of you, meet some of you, shared joy and frustrations with you. I've bridged the gap of impersonal computer blogging and made connections with my readers, engaging in a dialog built on the common love of the equine. Horseplayers, whales, bloggers, wannabes, rescuers, journalists: I've been blessed to meet you all and I thank you for inspiring me to write my blog when I'm tired, when work has me down, when the joy is sucked from my bones. Nothing makes me happier than talking about the races, a pleasure that is possible because of the understanding and encouragement given to me by Mrs. Turk, and my apprentice, The Little Turk.

At The Turk and the Little Turk we don't give a hoot about traffic, demographics, Alexa ratings, blog analytics, none of that. The Ol' Turk cares about the real. We define the real as family, friends, new loves, old loves. We don't discriminate, don't judge, don't preach, occasionally rant, but it's always delivered with passion and it's always straight up, no BS. Win, loose, close miss, plain suck, we just say it.

I'd like to thank Geno from Equispace . I found Equispace sort of by accident in September 2008 while I was mindlessly surfing away in O'Hare Airport. It dawned on me as I read his blog that this was something I'd like to try myself. On a whim I wrote a letter to Geno and he graciously responded. The small world that it is, Geno actually lives no more than 15 miles from my house.

In a world full of irony, Geno replaced an inspiration of mine, The Happy Handicapper, Mr. Bob Summers, who passed away about a year ago. Bob was the longtime handicapper at the Buffalo News and his articles were always positive and full of upbeat language and joy. Bob's writings, and his use of a clumsy third person writing style, was an inspiration to me and he is missed, but Geno has carried on the tradition of writing well.

My only goal for this blog is more of the same, but better. I don't intend to ever write a handicapping book, but I'm writing parts of it every blog entry. I consider my writings a work in progress and I work at my craft. As I'm working, I'm doing my best to articulate my thoughts cohesively. I hope you like it, it is for you I write.

I hope to meet as many of you as possible during the Breeders' Cup. Stay positive, add to other's joy, think before you talk, have empathy. Love one another as you would have others love you.

Here's hoping we break 28,000 visitors by year four.

Thank You Friends,

The Turk and Little Turk

The Nomination Is In: September 17, 2011; The Garden City Grade I

2011-09-16T21:04:00.009-04:00

If you are 8 of 8 in the money on turf, win four straight with improving Beyers, against improving company, rip off :47.4 the week before, you get the picture on the blog, and that beautiful More Than Ready girl who races for breeder/owner Emory Hamilton is Hungry Island, my chalk in tomorrows Garden City Handicap.

I've been stewing on the eight horses entered for the inner turf affair for two days now. I don't think it's a great betting race so most likely I'll handicap out the Pick 4 and have some fun that way.

Let's get after it!

Hungry Island has been on a real tear, and everyone steps back, but she still seems to be on an upward trajectory. He big challenge will seem to come from the beautiful El Prado daughter, Winter Memories. Castellano gets the mount after Lezcano was criticized for the trip in the Lake Placid.

Speaking of trips, I see three key races to watch before settling on my handicap; The Lake Placid, The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (just to get perspective on More Than Real) and the Coronation Stakes.

2011 Lake Placid G2 @ SAR 21 August

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf G2

2011 Coronation Stakes G1 17 June

Gather your information on scratches and changes and track conditions and get a feel for the weather, which should not be a factor.

It's my humble opinion that you shouldn't get too hung up on trip handicapping. I like to judge the late turn of foot and get an honest opinion if the race should count as something you can view as indicative or if the trip was god awful, do you just give out a mulligan.

I don't get hung up on Beyers either. I use them as a predictor, a datapoint that shouldn't be over stressed. I place great emphasis on current form, last two races, works, life time stats in the money for the surface, at the distance, at the track. I'm interested in how often in the last two years the horse has won. I'm OK with a horse that doesn't win, but you have to figure out where to layer that horse in. I'll say it again and again, Morning Lines have no place in handicapping. Trust yourself before letting someone else color your opinion.

I want More Than Real to bounce back but I'm not sure what to make of her; a dull effort in England in the Coronation Stakes, a dull Lake Placid, and slow and not improving works at 4f. I just can't back her right now. Trainer Pletcher is a big time winner so you can't discount, but I am tomorrow.

I'm not sure what to make of Theysken's Theory; I'm not sure of the distance and the turf condition and I think that tomorrows really a primer for her and her connections, who attracted Gomez to the mount. I'm layering her in somewhere between 5th and Show.

Pinch Pie went off at $18.90 in the Alabama, and lets not throw a parade for finishing up track, but she was flying in the last quarter mile. Anthony Dutrow is 27% turf winner and 22% on the Dirt to Turf switch, with the Dutrow/Rose combo winning 34% on 208 starts together the past year. I have a soft spot for Victory Gallop's.

Kathmanblu is Mama Turk's iron stove pipe lock this week. 6 of 7 in the money on turf and 9 of 12 lifetime in the money on all surfaces. Arch Support has super hot David Cohen up but the Arch daughter doesn't win much.

I'm just not that excited about this race as a betting opportunity. I don't see big value turning conventional wisdom on its ear. That said, it's one Turk's opinion and I encourage you to disregard hacks like me and do your own handicapping and take your own opinions.

So what am I gonna do with this effort? I dunno. I seriously doubt I'd bet this race stand alone. I'll spend some time on the P4 and blog about it if I have time. Tomorrow's efforts will be geared towards the Woodbine Mile card as well.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday September 10, 2011; The Grade 2 Grab Bag of the Super Derby and Masters

2011-09-11T09:17:00.005-04:00

Who else still looks up expecting to see them? Ten years later and it has yet to mentally compute that they are just gone, these iconic towers that captured in my imagination what the big city was like.

I've stood in the Pentagon, at the very place where the plane struck. I've stood at the edge of ground zero and looked into the pit, remembering the days I visited the building when it was a vibrant and bustling office city.

If you are reading a horse racing blog, chances are you are old enough to have your own 9/11 story. I have mine and I no longer think about the images of the buildings being stuck or falling, I now only think about the names and faces of some of the dead, men and women of a similar age to me, with children, veterans, police and fire fighters. That's all the memory links within my mind lead me to.

Life has gone on for the rest of us, damaged but alive, but for the victims of 9/11, they are locked in time, hopefully resting in peace.

God Bless the United States of America.

I assembled two very simple bets for no reason other than I had plans to see the University of Buffalo home football opener with Little Turk and his buddy, and I had to place the bets and go.

A Trifecta and Superfecta were constructed using my base handicaps. The day was made positive by the Trifecta win in the Presque Isle Downs Masters and the Superfecta win in the Super Derby.

In the hits category I forwardly placed Populist Politics and Awesome Bet in the Super Derby, the 6th and 7th betting public choices, and I had Musical Romance covered in the Masters. I'm looking for misses and i can't really say I blew anything, but that is the fine line of handicapping and betting, one change in position is the difference. I would have never included $46.20 Promised Mandate in my PID Super. I never expected Ariana D. to be so backed, I viewed her as value. Trubs and Meistersinger didn't fire as well as hoped.

Good sized fields with competition up and down the starting gate is much more preferable to me than a five horse Grade I. Good stuff indeed.

Remember the dead, and the loved ones they left behind. Remember the military, the only segment of the American public at war and living as being at war daily.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: 10 September 2011; The Grade 2 Racing Grab Bag- PID Masters and Super Derby

2011-09-10T09:32:00.006-04:00

One of my favorite things about horse racing is the selection; You would think the weekend after the prestigious racing meets at Saratoga and Del Mar close that there wouldn't be anything that could interest you: How wrong you would be. I'm a horse racing fan first, handicapper and degenerate bettor second. Sure I love Grade One racing on the biggest stages, on national TV, but there is some good stuff out there almost every weekend of the year, and that's what I am, a weekend horse fella.

I debated what I wanted to handicap today and that debate always starts at the stakes schedule. I had alot of options but I settled on handicapping two tracks I seldom work, Louisiana Downs and Presque Isle Downs. Why? Big fields and the PP's just looked fun. I'm easy (relax ladies, I'm not available).

There were some nice turf events at Belmont, Kentucky Downs and Woodbine, and some nice fake dirt events at Arlington, but I printed The Super Derby Grade 2 at LaD and The Masters Grade 2 at PID and I got the red gel pen out and got engaged. No excuses if I don't have fun, I picked my pleasure.

I received my Breeders' Cup purple 2011 Breeders' Cup ball cap in the mail yesterday.

I am such a geek and I'm completely unapologetic about it. I am so excited about the Breeders' Cup this year and I look forward to meeting more of the great folks I've had the pleasure of getting to know through Facebook, Twitter, and the various racing blogs. It's a nice community of fans in horse racing, eclectic to say the least. One of the things I like about horse racing is the passion of, and the acceptance that women receive as turf writers, bloggers, fans and handicappers. What other non female related sport is that accepting? All good stuff!

Anyway, lets get after this!

I've had some intense handicapping sessions over the past few weeks. They have been lucrative to me but also draining. In the past I may have taken a handicappers holiday and put the red pen down for a weekend, but I've decided this year to handicap every week but only ramp up the effort (and the cash I'm willing to lay down) three or four more times between now and Breeders' cup weekend. My goal is to stay sharp and stay engaged with my PP reading skills.

I learned to handicap in an era before You Tube and Google; I use to handicap whole cards on the night shift of my job (I don't advocate this behavior generally, it was just a 12 hour shift and not much to do). I did not trip handicapping and seldom got any feedback on the races that I handicapped except the WPS results in the next days paper. I feel pretty good just looking at the PPs and nothing much else but the funny thing is, no matter how long I've been doing it, if I don't do it regularly I get sloppy. I'll take a bit of a break in November after the Breeders' Cup but for right now, I'm going to keep workin' it.

I checked the weather at Louisiana Downs. Hot but dry. I'm not much worried about the fake dirt track in Erie, PA, about 90 minutes south of Turk.

Lets start with the Super Derby: Prayer for Relief, the Baffert trainee for Zayat Stables and two time graded stakes winner, appears to be a heavy duty chalk in this spot; two late turns of foot on dirt at 8+ furlongs, two Derby wins in West Virgina and Iowa, Baffert 25% off a 30-60 day break, 25% winning last starts, 33% on dirt. Heavy duty expect 6-5, 5-6 something not worth betting; Let's bet against him!

I'm putting Trubs on top; The Al Stall runner is 2 of 2 at LaD, has 4 wins on fast dirt and is very game. Stall has Sellers up and they combine for 32% wins. Stall has stats that stand up to Baffert: 28% off 45-180 day break, 28% off 30 to 60 day break, 33%winners of last start, 32% graded stakes.

Don't want to throw caution to the wind like the ol' Turk? There will be some legitimate prices that should be considered. Alternation with R. Dominguez up, is a strong runner with 4 wins on fast dirt and 1 win at the distance. The Distorted Humor son is off to a fresh start after abandoning Triple Crown dreams and winning the Grade 2 Peter Pan before coming up a bit flat in the Jim Dandy.

10 cent Super's and fifty cent Tri's are on the menu; I like some exotic possibility here with the value coming if Prayers for Rain falters, even if just to Place.

At Presque Isle I'm hunting for value too and I've settled on Ariana D: 16 of 20 in the money on fake dirt, winless in 2011 with 4 Place finishes and I love the running lines, " gamely...all out inside....detirminedly...up late driving". Desormeaux is up, not exactly my favorite rider but a big fish in this pond. Sweet Lorena is a horse for the course but may not be classy enough to win on a track she generally owns: 15 of 15 in the money at PID, 16 of 18 in the money on fake stuff for the 7 YO NY State bred mare from Langfuhr. Beat the Blues should only be ignored at your own peril.

I'm layer handicapping both races. I will be building exotics and who exactly wins is a bit moot and only matters to drive the value of the bet higher or lower. A nice betting menu is available for the PID Masters;$2 WPS, $2 Exactas, fifty cent Tri's and ten cent Super's.

I'm going to sit back and have a bit of fun with these nice sized fields and beatable chalks (at least I hope).

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 9, 2011: The Presque Isle Downs Mile Preview

2011-09-07T20:40:00.009-04:00

Life is all about timing. Being in the right place at the right time and taking advantage of the right moments is something you learn and it's something I try to teach the Little Turk. Opportunity knocks and you have to answer!

I think Presque Isle Downs gets it. A racino, sure, but slowly but surely improving the race product and they place a big weekend in their calendar the first weekend after Saratoga and Del Mar closes when addicts like me are jonesing for a big field and beatable chalk.

On the Friday night card we have a nice field of 12 runners going after $250,000 in the Presque Isle Mile. Three millionaires and my tentative chalk, Stunning Stag, set to break a million.

If I were writing a handicapping book I'd use these PP's as an example of runners of various class rising and falling, as well as turf and dirt to synthetic angles and distance increase and decrease angles. Take some time with these PP's like the Ol' Turk is doing. I printed them last night and I've been marinating in them. I love the challenge that this field will present and I think there is some money to be made with the exotic options here.

I've laid out my initial thoughts and I'll sleep on it and finish up by early Friday.

Have fun with this, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 3 September 2011: The All Graded Stakes Pick 3 at Saratoga

2011-09-04T08:56:00.007-04:00

Do you remember where you were on August 22, 2006? When the news of Horse of the Year Saint Liam dying in a paddock accident broke I was in an airport flying West on business. I couldn't shake from my mind the fuchsia and teal silks, Jerry Bailey up. There is a sadness that comes with this sport you just have to accept. Rest in Peace Saint Liam. Thanks to Tiznow Tim for use of the photo.

Havre de Grace, the four year old daughter of Saint Liam , made it look too easy yesterday. It was a confident run against a good field and she had more in the tank at the end than anyone else. It reaffirmed by feeling that our American fillies and mares are the best runners we have, the most exciting, and right now, the most gutty. It makes me appreciate Blind Luck a whole lot too as she wins yesterday if she was the won entered.

let's get after it!

Yesterday was a thrilling day as a horse fan, the type of day that doesn't come along very often. I was happy for Larry Jones and Fox Hill Farms, a team that gave me one of my happiest Saratoga memories in the past decade, Hard Spun's Kings Bishop win.

I whiffed on the Pick Three; I didn't want to believe a horse that was claimed in June for $75,000 could win back to back Grade 1 wins but that's exactly what Ask the Moon did winning the Personal Ensign after taking the Ruffian Handicap. Ask the Moon, whose name is now associated forever with Ruffian and Personal Ensign. That would make a good movie script!

The Forego made me sad for Sidney's Candy. Previously trained by John Sadler before being sold to WinStar, the four year old Candy Ride is a turf runner but with Trainer Pletcher at the helm he was switched to the dirt here. i don't mind seeing a horse given an opportunity to take down $750,000, but I wasn't thrilled with how Quality Road's career was managed and I don't see a real campaign being charted for Sidney's Candy either. I respected Sidney's Candy enough to cover him but I wasn't shocked at the dull effort and i was shocked that he was the chalk. I hit the Superfecta and I almost didn't without my late insertion of Aikenite into both Show and 4th. He was really closing at the end.

The betting public had The Woodward cold. The order of finish by ranking on the toteboard? 1,2,3,5,4,6,7,8. I hit a $125 Superfecta on a $54 dollar ticket. Pedestrian, not sexy, but cash is cash. The day I start getting disappointed that I only netted $470 for 3 hours work is the day I'll toss my red gel pens in the river.

With Saratoga and Del Mar ending many casual horse racing fans turn their attention to the NFL, baseball playoffs, college football, etc. I'd urge the new readers I've picked up here at the Turk over the past two months to give the sport a chance to keep you hooked. The Stakes Schedule is full of great races and betting opportunities. Even if you only focus on Saturday racing, which most of the time its all the Turk has time for anyhow, you can continue your handicapping skills and stay engaged with the game. I'm expecting Breeders' Cup 2011 to offer some incredible betting opportunities. Stay sharp friends.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 3, 2011; The All Graded Stakes P3 at Saratoga

2011-09-03T08:57:00.007-04:00

Trainer Larry Jones returns to Sartaoga with Havre de Grace, a four year old Saint Liam filly who lost by a neck to her rival Blind Luck in a thrilling Alabama in 2010.

Early in the Saratoga season there was talk of a Personal Ensign showdown between Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. That didn't materialize and then the Personal Ensign didn't materialize after Hurricane Irene had other ideas for last Sunday's day at the track. Last Sunday's loss is our gain as we have three back to back Grade I races to thrill us on the last weekend of Saratoga racing.

When you live in a cold weather locale like The Turk does you savor the seasons, all four of them. Winter to me is Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, Spring is Oaklawn and Kentucky Racing, Summer is Arlington and Saratoga, and then Fall is Woodbine, Belmont, and Breeders' Cup . That's how I view the year and it's bitter sweet for me to realize the summer has slipped by.

Friends and family of mine don't really get horse racing. Some of them try, some of them enjoy going to the track, but they aren't as fully wired in as I am. I write this blog to maintain a connection with my love of racing. No matter how much my job drains the energy from me, I have my family and I have this blog that has brought me many friends around the country who all share the same passions as the Turk clan.

I think I digressed: I'm a big fan of Larry Jones, the man. One of my first blog entries in 2008 was when he announced he was leaving the main stage of racing. I love having him back. I was reading some more talented bloggers recently and a point was made that Trainers need to feel a responsibility towards marketing the sport and that trainers need to be more visible and outspoken ambassadors of the sport. Men like Larry Jones are so charismatic, so genuine, you can't help but root for them in life and at the track. While I love the tradition of the sport, their is such a lack of effort to market the horsepeople that drive the sport.

The Turk has been very active in horse racing charities and he donates a portion of his winnings to rescues. I would never suggest that anyone part with their money, but please think about contributing to the runners who mostly weren't successful at the track and have many years of life ahead and so few people willing to care for them. Anything you can donate helps. There are so many wonderful people doing this thankless work, I hesitate to recommend any particular rescue because I'll miss someone just as deserving a shout out. The Turk will help put any casual fans in touch with the right people and all he asks is to think about these entertainers and their long term care is all of our concerns.

Let's get after it!

Race 8-9-10 Saratoga

Check the weather and scratches and changes. The Live Tote is absolutely critical; Forget the morning lines, build your own fair odds table (or letter grades) and then use the Tote Board to let the bettors tell you where they place a horse within the field. Know the odds and know what the risk/reward of your bet is.

I've built base handicaps for each race. My goal pre race is to "reorder" the horses into layers. Those layers are Win-Place-Show-Exotic and Tosses or Also Rans. I don't really try to identify the winner but instead identify who I think could win. Because it's a cop out to not pick a winner, I always do, but I'm far more interested in nailing the final order on an exotic ticket with a bit of boxing and matrix building.

I've put up some key video on each race. My analysis is there are some vulnerable chalk here. Seperate horse fan from bettor within your mind; Ask the Moon freaked the Ruffian Handicap, but do you love her at 2-1? Do you still love Havre de Grace at 8-5? I'm not answering those questions, I'm just suggesting that I will bet chalk when it makes sense as a bettor, but I won't bet chalk because I'm a fan. I'll save my bet and buy a picture for my wall. Chalk gets a bum rap too; In Layer handicapping, Chalks can't be ignored, but it helps if they finish lower than expected and you have them in the next layer below win. Good stuff friends!

2011 Ruffian Handicap

2011 Ogden Phipps Handicap

2011 Teddy Drone $103K

2011 James Marvin

2011 Whitney Invitational Handicap

2011 Birdstone Stakes

I'm going to let my base handicap speak for itself and i'll break down more of the thought process in the post race analysis. I was suppose to go today to the Woodward, a race I haven't missed in years. The Ol' Turk is tired, mentally and physically. The f**king hurricane caused me alot of work headaches and i'm just drained. I've got my eye on a PID road trip for their big races next weekend and then the Woodbine Mile is on my agenda later this month. We are all set in our plans for the Breeders' Cup too so I will just regroup and I'll be back at the Woodward next year.

Have Fun, Turk Out! Thank you Saratoga in the 25th year of my love affair with you.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 28 August 2011: Travers Day Pick Six

2011-08-28T14:35:00.009-04:00

Which makes you look thinner, horizontal or vertical stripes? The Ol' Turk doesn't have a clue about fashion but he knows that his horizontal handicapping and betting on the Travers Stakes Pick Six card made him a whole lot phatter in wallet than his "on a diet" vertical bet Pick Six effort.

The handicaps utilized my "layer handicapping" approach and the bets followed my handicaps without deviation. I did my thinking pre-race and that allowed me to sit back, not feel that sense of panic that can arise as post time approaches, and I didn't over think the races. Regardless of the surface I focus squarely on current form, past three race run lines, over time history on surface/at distance/at course, and where and against whom the animal has been running against. On turf I place great emphasis on late turn of foot.

I only feel comfortable talking about how I go about my handicapping. I don't like to read about the races I'm handicapping until after I've completed my handicapping, as I prefer to avoid the hype and bias of the writer whose income is derived from entertaining readers and not necessarily from tossing contestants, some of whom have a better story to tell than a race to run.

A factor I really discount in comparison to contemporaries who I talk shop with is pace. I take into account where each horse will most likely be at the break and then at the top of the stretch, but I do it in broadstrokes and seldom do I predict a winner on the likely pace scenario. OK Turk, WTF does all that mean? It just means I have my own, not that complicated manner of slotting the horses into expected finish. The beauty of handicapping is there is an infinite number of ways to approach the problem but the results are the results and they can be arrived at from many different roads.

Handicapping and betting are two VERY different things. Some do one well and do OK, some do neither well and some get both ends right. Forget what they are doing and ask yourself what you are doing right and wrong. Ripping up the tickets and not taking the time to do a handicapping autopsy is a huge mistake. If you take anything away from my ramblings each each, do this step and you'll see your skills increase.

I do completely ignore morning lines before I handicap and as I said, I do my best to not read about the races I'm handicapping. I treat each race with a fresh mind and no preconceived notions. Track handicappers are pretty sharp folks, some sharper than others, but pretty sharp nonetheless. I like to see where I have runners in relation to the track handicapper. What that does for me is give me feedback, something I lack in the vacuum of kitchen table 'capping. It took me years to believe in myself when I disagreed with the track handicapper. It's those differences of opinion that often lead to my best scores, the contrarian viewpoint.

Let's review and then I'll babble some more.

My list of HITS would be placing Daveron high in the Ballston Spa, not having Sassy Image to high on my board, not betting a Trifecta in the Ballerina, even if I did leave a profit on the table, having Caleb's Posse and Uncle Mo in the exacta that drove my Superfecta and having Justin Phillips higher than other bettors. On my MISSES list would be not valuing Hot Summer and over rating the chances of Precious Soul in the Victory Ride, consistently missing on Stay Thirsty, but my Travers Coil/Shackleford placings was a bust and the Pick Six in general was just a mess.

I put about $540 dollars of capital on table yesterday. I would not have hit that Pick Six if I invested all $540 on the bet or double that. I think the bet is the "bridge too far" for the average bettor and the Pick 3 and 4 are much more achievable targets. That said, the cards always offer juicy exotics that can be hit if you layer the horses properly and you build good bets. I didn't make $6 for every dollar I bet yesterday by just having good handicaps, it was sound betting practices that you learn over time. I felt comfortable that I had the exactas and then I went five and six deep for spots Place and Show and then slimmed back for fourth. That bet structure was what I used twice yesterday and I went as exactly deep as I had color coded pre race.

I hope some of what I'm saying helps someone out there sharpen their own skills. My methods came from reading the works of Brad Free, Steve Crist, Andy Beyer, Tom Ainsile and Steve Davidowitz. I enjoy the articles in American Turf Monthly as well, and I take all this and I have my own, derivative methods. I call them derivative because nothing I do I would call original.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 27, 2011; The Travers Stakes Day Pick Six

2011-08-27T13:30:00.003-04:00

It seems the question my friends keep asking is one I wish to avoid: If today's winner of the Travers is one of the 3 YOs to have won a major Grade I already, will he be a lock for horse of the year? How quickly we jump to canonize in our society. I won't rant today, it's too much of a holiday for me, these Travers Stakes days, but let's allow the year play out folks.

I put a personal favorite of mine up today, a fine picture of Point Given by Tom Killips, the 2001 winner, being led to the winners circle by the ageless master, Trainer Bob Baffert. Point Given's greatness was cemented by the time this race ended: A Preakness, a Belmont, a Haskell and a Travers in consecutive starts will do that for you. This year's three year olds have been battered and bruised for lacking a real division leader, and the question of if it's depth of talent or mediocrity is a topic I've had some wonderfully engaged discussions on with readers here and within the social media universe, as well as over cigars at a few paddocks. If the year plays out like it has, someone different will step forward.

What do I suspect today? A chance to break the cycle. I'm leaning towards a horse with raw talent to burn and the DNA of greatness, Coil, yes the one career start on dirt Coil, son of Point Given. Whoever wins, and I'm still keen on Shackleford, there's this little hootenanny called the Breeders' Cup Classic with no strong candidate currently to win. I'm more interested in allowing greatness to announce itself on the biggest stage. Someone will kick the door open today, Let's get after it!

The Travers Stakes Day Pick 6 Race 8-13 post time 3:28 ET

I'm not an advocate of the Pick Six as a betting option for the traditional bettor; It's sexy, it's daunting, it feels like a wise guy thing to do, but it's a black hole of failure to casual bettors. I've never hit one, but I think I've only personally bet a P6 a handful of times.

The Turk was a member of a Pick Six group for a short period of time. I was humbled that I was invited to join with some pretty serious fellas and smart enough to know I wasn't that into the action. My readers and friends know I'm an exotics fella, but there are much softer spots to invest in.

All that said, I've assembled a $24 $1 P6 bet. If I'm going to play it, I want to win it betting a little as possible. To me that's got a cool factor and something worth hunting for a few times a year.

It always starts with the base handicap for me, regardless of what betting menu option I choose. Once you've done the work you can take the race program either horizontally or vertically.

I'll let my spreadsheet speak for me and keep my comments short until my post race analysis, and then I'll take a little extra time to explain what I was thinking.

Have fun with the card and only bet what you are 100% prepared to lose.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 13, 2011: The Arlington Millions and the Anatomy of the Bet

2011-08-14T10:18:00.007-04:00

I love Arlington Park. It's a real treat for me to go to a track that gets it so well. I love buying my seats online, getting a box for seven so I can stretch out and spread out, just like if I'm at my kitchen table. I appreciate the kind and hard working folks that come and take my order and entertain me with stories of high rollers, real and imagined. I could prattle on about not enjoying the poly track, but I'd be lying: I've grown use to it and I think it plays pretty fair. I come for that lush green turf. I come for that magnificent paddock. and I come for the people I meet and the city that doesn't appreciate it enough.

Yeah I'm a bit giddy, but that's what winning my first Super High Five bet has done for me. Readers of the Turk will remember that I kicked myself rather hard for leaving my 1991 annual salary on the table by not placing the Super High Five Bet on the Preakness when I had the sequence nailed. I was livid with myself in May and I've waited for an opportunity to wipe this shame off my handicappers report card.

When preparing my handicap for The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner, I completed my base handicap and concluded that just betting a trifecta wasn't going to be worth it: I didn't see any scenario where some real long money was going to crack the ticket. I decided early on that this was my Super High Five Moment. But how to bet is the question. Taking the top six of the base handicap and boxing them is not an option as to that would cost you $720.

Let's get after how I approached that.

My base handicap is a breakdown of the layers of expected finish in the field. I had a WTF moment a few blog entries back and explained my layer handicapping philosophy. As a layer handicapper, I'm less concerned about the actual winner and more interested in "slotting" the horses properly and then having them finish within their slot somewhere, anywhere. I'm seldom emotionally wrapped up with having to have a horse win. Perhaps Zenyatta at the Breeders' Cup Classic was the last time I felt that pang. I have my favorites; my sentimentality is what makes me a fan, being a cold hearted calculator is what makes me a good bettor.

I wanted my risk exposure to be much less than $720 and I started by eliminating some horses who I didn't think would win and I scratched Dean's Kitten and Wigmore Hall from the WIN spot. This isn't a smart move, but its a fiscally sound move. The way you get to a $50,000 high five is by having $19.30 to 1 shot Dean's Kitten win. That said, I didn't want to spend $720 and someone had to get chopped.

Next I make a stand at who won't finish Exotic-Fifth. If I'm going to chop the long shots from winning, it doesn't make much sense to have the Chalk and Place contenders fifth. That eliminated Gio Ponti and Cape Blanco. This isn't a smart move either but hey, listen to me, unless you want to spend $720 you have to make tough choices. This is gambling after all.

Those trims of the WIN and the Fifth Spot took the bet down to $288. While not outside my price range, I thought it was too much of a capital risk and wanted it a bit smaller.

I took the red pen and took the biggest stand that would determine if I won or lost: I eliminated Gio Ponti from any finish except Win and Place. I also eliminated Wigmore Hall and Dean's Kitten from Place.

Sitting at $152, I rested.

What went right? Discounting Zack Hall (Fr) completely and putting Dean's Kitten, who I thought was way too low at a Morning Line 50-1 in the top six. The turf was much softer than I predicted Thursday night and that played to our Euro friends. I also paid attention to the turf conditions and reduced the chance Cape Blanco would drop.

What went wrong? I thought the turf would be a little firmer and Mission Approved's speed would carry far enough. He dropped like a rock in the stretch. Respecting Rahystrada from 1-5. I really thought he could be the value driver.

I've had a full weekend with friends and family. For only having time to handicap and bet one race, I'm feeling pretty good about this.

Enjoy the day, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 13, 2011: The Arlington Million Grade I

2011-08-11T20:43:00.008-04:00

God gave me a big nose for a reason, but it isn't big enough: John Henry nips me at the wire but I get up for Show Money behind The Bart. The story of my life. I think I've digressed.

Welcome Friends to the Turk and Little Turk's handicap of the Arlington Million. I've been invited today to handicap one of the premier turf events in North America, the Grade I Arlington Million,for the Thorofan's Handicappers Corner. To those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, its an organization inspired by and serving the 29 million horse racing fans in America who deserve a voice.

Arlington Park is a pretty special place to me. I was living north of Chicago in 1985, serving in the United States Navy, when a fire swept through the track , destroying the old place. I joined the curious and the concerned that watched from the edge of the road. It's a wonderful new facility now, under appreciated in the big scheme of things, but just a completely fan-centric race day experience they offer and its one of this Turk's favorite places to visit.

Arlington Park installed a poly surface in 2007, which I don't play often, but when I do, I find it plays pretty fair. For me, the Arlington turf course is the draw. It's maintained immaculately, not like the grass at Soldier Field. The race falls in a nice place in the conditions book, a month or so after the classic distance Grade I turf affairs start happening, races like The Colonial Turf Cup,Arlington Park Handicap, The Man O' War and the United Nations,and it sets the winner up perfectly for The Breeders' Cup Turf. The race attracts some of the best turf horses in the America and the best second tier grass runners from Europe and the race is the cornerstone of Arlington Park's biggest day of the year. All good stuff.

Before I look at this year's field I need to understand what to expect the turf to be like: The course is currently listed as Yielding. The weather leading up to Saturday suggests that rain is possible. I'm leaning towards the course still being soft, possibly listed as good, but I expect it will play fair and not favor speed. You have to make a stand on what you think the conditions will be before you break down the runners. There are some great Twitter and Facebook feeds out there you can tap to get a real time feel for the truth. Take advantage of the new information when you can. On raceday make sure you check scratches and changes and the tote board is always something to keep your eye on so you don't invest too heavily when the odds aren't in your favor.

I also like to take a few minutes and review the past, which is often a window into the future. From the racecharts I've taken a quick peek at the last six editions.

Glean what you like from it, but I'm focused on the favorite has been taking Place money more often than not and that the winner is being identified as one of the top three by savvy horse players. It looks like Show is in play with the average Show horse was typically the fifth favorite of the punters. Only one chalk has one in the past six editions.

When you're looking at this race, or any race with foreign invaders, avoid assigning mythical powers to these animals; Just because they are from Europe don't assume they will dominate. Respect them, sure, get as much information on them as you can, but don't ascribe brilliance too quickly.

Again, I'm leaning towards slightly soft going and I'm going to discount front running speed carrying over distance. I see the pace being set by Mission Approved, Proceed Bee and Dean's Kitten possibly. Cape Blanco (IRE) will be pulled back and kept about 1 length back to the inside. A bunch of closers, lead by Gio Ponti will be poised to strike at the top of the straight.

Flaws: Every horse has flaws that can make you shy away. Gio Ponti hasn't won in awhile. Cape Blanco (Ire) has been anointed, but look at the running lines, very inconsistent and no reason to be so respectful of the expected chalk. Mission Approved is an honest runner who will give you the same effort every race. I like the training at Saratoga and I think the 7 YO is poised for a good year.

Man O' War /Good Turf/ July 9,2011

This can either be a good betting race or a dud. I don't see the longest prices winning or placing under almost any circumstances. I don't think the trifecta will pay that well with my base handicap so I'll consider superfecta or super high-5 and take a swing at the fences.

The base handicap is built and again it's built with certain turf conditions in mind and its built with the pace scenario keyed on Mission Approved. Any scratches from the pace players will force a reassessment. Pay attention to the scratches and changes, as well as the tote board, and use your base handicap to quickly work through your own value versus reward equations. Finally, only bet what you are prepared to lose.

Do your own handicapping and remember the past is prologue. Thanks again for the Thorofan for allowing me to entertain you. I'm hopeful my degenerate core audience will become members soon.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday 6 August 2011: The Grade 1 Test and Whitney as part of the Saratoga Late Pick 3

2011-08-07T10:02:00.005-04:00

Suck or blow? When you work around large machines like I have my whole working career, this is the sort of discussion that starts theoretical: It takes less energy to draw a a material in the gaseous state through equipment with a slightly negative vacuum then it does to push the same gaseous solution through by blowing it under a slight positive pressure. After the discussion on mechanical and electro-hydraulic systems concludes the subject often turns crudely sexual, but that's a topic for a different blog. In horse racing, if you "blow" or "suck" I reckon it doesn't really matter as your tickets will be worthless regardless.

And speaking of losing tickets, what do you do with yours? When I just feel like people watching, I'll hang out at the track and after the results go final I take great pleasure in watching people celebrate as well as go into fits of despair. The poor tickets are either venerated to holy status or they are ripped, shredded, thrown, burned, etc etc etc. Me personally, I can't have negative vibe tickets on my person, they are thrown away immediately, which brings me to the story of the young Asian male at Churchill Downs sitting on the floor during Breeders' Cup Friday digging through a garbage can frantically looking at tickets amongst the filth, but that too is another story for another day.

The Turk is a big boy: I love talking about my wins, and I feel good enough about my decent skills as a handicapper to talk about the train wrecks. The Test was not a horrible handicap for me, I missed on Roman Treasure and it's hard to anticipate American Lady getting pulled up.

I plain sucked and/or blow'd with the Whitney Handicap. I knew it was a challenging field, but ugh, I didn't intentionally try to pick the finish in reverse order.

Anyhow, the carnage via spreadsheet is ugly:

Saratoga Race 9-10-11

So first of all, wow, Turbulant Descent. I may live in the Eastern United States, but I pay close attention to California racing and I knew this filly was special, bust she made a mockery of this field. Perhaps if Savvy Supreme, who was scratched, puts some pressure on Roman Treasure and Ramon and the pace was a bit hotter but....let's cut that loser talk off at the knees right now: The Test field was no match for Turbulent Descent.

My handicap was based on value and the hope that Turbulent Descent would not like the going. I knew no matter what she'd be top three and I backed a pretty fine filly, Pomeroys Pistol and I liked American Lady as well. I'm not as bullish on Her Smile, but her Prioress was honest.

Where do I start with the Whitney? Tizway was 1 of 8 with only 3 in the money finishes at the distance. He does have a tendency to run three race sequences and his first race back is generally a three digit Beyer. He was also training sharply at Saratoga since late June. The six year old now has 7 wins in 20 starts and is 13 of 20 in the money. Where will he point next? The Kelso like last year to prep for the Breeders' Cup Mile or is he main event? I'm thinking main event baby.

Flat Out was 1 of 3 at the distance before yesterday but had 4 wins of 9 starts over fast dirt. I disliked the post draw but I liked the bullets he's been churning out at Monmouth and the Suburban at 1 1/8 miles to pay $13.60 was artistic. The lightly raced five year old son of Flatter is now 6 of 10 lifetime in the money.

I've been a Giant Oak fan a long time but I thought he was no better than an exotic with this field; 2 wins in now 16 fast dirt starts and 2 wins in 10 tries at this distance and only 1 win, The Grade 1 Donn in last 11 tries. He's been training sharp and as expected he closed like a freight train.

Friend or Foe was a colt I was conflicted on pre race: A NY bred 4 YO who was winless in two tries at SAR, but 5 of 8 on fast dirt and he's beaten Rail Trip, Convocation, Ichabad Crane and Ibboyee to name some. He ran respectable in last year's Jim Dandy and Travers and he's had three straight 100+ Beyer's. Respect earned.

Headache I was high on. A morning line 20-1, I thought he had a very good chance to be top four. The 5 YO gelding ran well in the tight Prairie Medows turns and I thought he'd sneak up a bit higher. Trainer Maker has every reason to be proud of him and he didn't disappoint yesterday.

The text on the race charts is often terse but effective. Mission Impazzible "...no rally". I've never been that high on Mission Impazzible and I had him higher yesterday than the fan in me liked, but I'm a handicapper,not a fanboy, and that's why I'm in a foul mood over him. Pletcher's charge is just good enough to tease you.

Rail Trip "...lacked the necessary response". Yup. Trainer Dutrow doesn't seem to be doing too well with the six year old gelding whom I've been a big fan of since Santa Anita Derby Day 2009 and the Santana Mile.

Rodman and Prado fought quite a bit and it just wasn't his day. Apart is no Blame.

Duke of Mischief , ugh. "....but was through after completing three quarters". I took a chance he'd roll from the outside, it didn't happen.

Morning Line? The son of Tiznow was right there and then nothing.

Horse racing, love it!

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Saratoga Late Pick 3 including the Grade 1 Test and Whitney

2011-08-06T11:00:00.004-04:00

The equine athletes are horse racing first and foremost to the Ol' Turk, but a close second is the people behind the horses. Can there be a brighter light in Saratoga racing over a longer period of time than the Whitney's? The irrepressible Marylou dances it up with a dashing Tony Randall at the crossroads where glamour and racing met, a yesteryear where rich Corinthian leather in your car meant something.

Anyhow, summer marches along and waits for no one. Saratoga comes and stays with us and before you know it, its gone, along with summer for another year. Saratoga has its own ebb and flow, races that set up races, that lead to championship races, that lead to Fall Belmont and then Breeders' Cup where the circle comes complete for the year. During the flow, stepping stone rocks appear, and today is The Whitney Invitational Handicap, a stepping stone for The Woodward, sure, but Breeders' Cup Classic is what these runners are focused on, with maybe one more stepping stone race before that day in early November. With real dirt back at Santa Anita trainers can point to The Goodwood or The Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. Stepping stones start with a first stone, and there were many for this group: The Stephen Foster, The Suburban, The Salvator and Met Miles, The Cornhusker, this is a middle stone, some will jump to one more stone in September or October, and then Churchill Downs, trying to follow the path of last years winner, Blame.

This IS horse racing, the handicap division, as weak as it may seem to some, its deep in numbers if not full of elite champions.

Let's get it on!

Saratoga Race 9-10-11

Weather and Scratches and Changes are an issue, so pay attention to both as the day goes on.

I'm going to let the spreadsheets speak for themselves prerace and I'll spend more time than usual postrace breaking down the contenders, my pre race thoughts, and what unfolded. A bit backwards for sure but an exercise I like to do every month or so to help me spot things on the racechart that I see and then take that information and tie back to the past performances, when the animals are kind enough to run on dirt like the story unfolds on paper.

Have fun with a day like today and I'll be back later to mull the effort over.

I handicapped a big field in Race 11 to assemble a Pick Three bet. It's a 7 panel affair over dirt for 3 YOs and Up foaled in NYS which have never won a race other than yada yada yada. I like the 9-10-11 and I most likely will single one of them and keep my exposure low as today is more about handicapping homework than swinging for the fences. These fields are too deep and too talented for me to loosen the purse strings too much.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 28, 2011; 100K Optional Claimer on Turf at Saratoga

2011-07-27T21:21:00.004-04:00

Handicapping is like working out in the gym; the more you work your muscles, the more you condition your body, the less body fat will collect in your mid section and you become sharper, fitter. The more you work that red gel pen, the more you begin to see the patterns from race to race, the more you start to see a dividing line of talent on the past performances, separating the contenders from the pretenders. The best of both worlds is to keep your body conditioned in the gym and your mind conditioned by handicapping races, but for some folks, one out of two ain't bad!

Handicapping mid week an optional claimer at Saratoga is not that different than handicapping a minor stakes or even some Grade 3's: You'll recognize most of the horses but the competition will be as good or better. This example is no different. The key for me is keeping my handicapping sharp and this gives me an opportunity to look at some nice horses and feel like I'm at the Spa even tho work has conspired to keep me apart from one of my true loves. Let's get it on!

Race 4: OC 100K; 1 Mile on Inner Turf

Sharp trainers read the conditions book and find spots for their charges who need a boost. The conditions here are as follows: 3 YO and up which have never won $40,000twice on the turf since January 28, 2011 OR which have never won four races other than Maiden, Claiming Starter, Starter or Restricted or Optional Claiming Price of $100,000. It goes on regarding how weights were assigned yada yada yada, but you get the point. Loup Breton's trainer, Mr. Pletcher can read the conditions book and he sees this an opportunity to slip Loup Breton's 12 of 26 turf record in the money, with 5 wins into a spot he can win. My guess is he'll be the post time chalk. Let's see if we can't identify a chalk beater.

Exhi in the 2 spot is the field's money leader; only 4 YO, a Grade 2 and 3 winner on fake dirt at Keeneland and only 1 win over grass. Has been training very sharply over Saratoga training turf track. Pletecher is 32% Synth/Turf. Pletecher's second rider is Castellano who's no slouch. While attractive, I'm leaning towards Lonesome Street; Trainer Maker has top lawn jock Leparoux up and the 4 YO likes the distance and the surface conditions. Improving and I think you'll find at least 5-1 at post time.

My base handicap is what I'm leaning towards and a five horse boxed super would be my bet, but this is more about staying sharp than anything else.

Keep your gel pen active, its the best way to get better.

(Thanks Hank for allowing me to use you as the punch line, I am a fan at least!)

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Eddie Read Grade 1 at Del Mar

2011-07-23T16:43:00.008-04:00

The house that Bing built...literally. 1936, and one of America's biggest stars, Bing Crosby, lays the cornerstone of the Del Mar racetrack that was to open the following year.

Thinking of Bing, I think about the fame that was thrust upon stars of the past; it would be wrong to wax poetic about how stars of the past handled their 15 minutes of fame with more aplomb than the current generations. Bing was a real class act, a gentleman showman, but no one is perfect, and I always get a bit worried by those who seem too Rockwellesque. I was saddened to hear of the death of Amy Winehouse today, not because I was a fan, which I was not, but because of her senseless decay into filth, drugs and an unrepairable moral compass. I was saddened to hear of Mike Smith's arrest for alleged DUI, Michael Baze's and Chris Antly's deaths, of Robby Albarado's arrest earlier this year for a domestic incident, and I wish these people we hold in such high regard could step away from the their bodies for a moment, step away from the enablers, and see that life's too f**king short to piss it away.

The Turk lives in the grind everyday and he knows a bit about working away and keeping it real. I don't pretend to be perfect but I try to teach the Little Turk that happiness comes from within and to love oneself, because it's the folks who aren't comfortable in their own skin, no matter how much fame and wealth they have, that can't keep it together.

OK, I'm done with my Sermon from the (kitchen chair) Mount. Let's get after some Grade 1 turf racing at the seashore heaven, Del Mar.

Del Mar Race 8: Post Time 8:30 ET

My base handicap is no shock with Caracortado up top, but hey, only one win in five starts in 2011 so let's not rush out and plan the ticker tape parade quite yet. As handicappers we can acknowledge the greatness of the animal on paper, but as a bettor I'm thinking about depressed odds on him and a legit contender going off a real nice price.

A layer of quality just below Caracortado includes Acclimation and Smart Bid, both most likely to be in the top four with the betting audience. Cutting just another bit deeper I find Jeranimo from the one post and Leroy's Dynameaux as two likely to be serious value with the ability to finish well. I'm not overlooking Celtic Princess either.

I've built my base handicap and my base bet would be a five horse superfecta box. My hope would be Caracortado finishing Place or Show and some much longer odds taking top prize. I'll most likely spread my money around on my betting options and look at some of the value players, the third/fourth and fifth bettor's favorites on the tote board just before post, and make up some exacta combinations.

It's early and I don't want to commit yet. The Turk will think a bit more on the bet and we'll see what happens.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Sanford Stakes at Saratoga

2011-07-23T01:00:00.005-04:00

When I think of emphatic two year old victories, I think of the winner of the 2004 Sanford Stakes, Afleet Alex, the record holder in this race with a time that was about six lengths off the track record set in 1972 by Spanish Riddle, a stable mate of the 1972 Sanford Stakes winner, Secretariat.

I'm off on a tangent as the Ol' Turk is inclined to do, but Spanish Riddle's story is fascinating; incredible speed only to lose part of a leg to amputation, fitted with a prosthetic device and he went on to stud for several years before dying of colic.

Before I go too far, let me thank The Thorofan for inviting me to handicap today. The Thorofan is a grass roots group of racing enthusiasts who are doing their part to bring the game to new fans as well as build a socially inclusive community at the track.

Handicapping two year old stake races in July isn't for the faint of heart; You'll lose, get use to it. But that said, it is gambling, we are capable of making educated guesses and completing analysis, so let's take a look at the field and make some general observations.

The Turk strongly believes in ignoring morning line odds until you've done your own handicapping. If you are going to skip morning lines, I'd also go the extra distance and encourage you to not read the bloggers and old media types telling you who they think will win until you also do your own work. It's not that I don't want you to read my ramblings, I just want you to put aside the bias of other people and build your own handicaps from scratch.

Morning lines or not, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to have your eyes drawn to the six horse, Overdriven. A Team Repole Stables joint, with Todd Pletcher and Johnny Velazquez already combining to put up a 100 Beyer at Belmont earlier this month. This horse will attract heavy betting action so what do we have: A heavy favorite balanced off by a decent sized field of 8. I'm trying not to prejudice my handicapping but right off the bat I'm thinking how do we beat the heavy favorite? The horse is making his second start after all, let's reserve the talk of Triple Crown contender for a little bit and let him earn respect.

That said, you still need someone who can beat him. The Turk is an information handicapper, a Past Performance tea leaf reader who likes to scour the Daily Race Form and Equibase race charts for information. One issue with two year olds is there is just not many running lines to lean on. You got a bunch of potential but not many results. If I don't have running lines to analyze, I'll take the step of studying the way the race has unfolded over a period of time. In this case, I've looked at the last 10 Sanford Stakes for guidance, courtesy of free Equibase historical charts

What did we take away: Six times the chalk won. Seven times the one or two post Placed. Seven wins were by more than 3 lengths. Five times the winner broke from one or two post.

You spend time studying these angles and you can often feel compelled to "apply" the information. I don't think much of the post one or post two horse, Tarpy's Goal and Moonrush respectively. They are babies and who knows what they will become but I don't see it for tomorrow and I am handicapping for tomorrow and not for next year and not for when they stretch out. Tarpy's Goal regressed the last time out, drifting out and coming in Show as a beaten chalk. Moonrush may be on the lead at the top of the stretch and if you are going to take a flyer, take it here for Place or Show. D. Wayne Lucas can't buy a graded stakes win right now.

So what do I think?

I like the closer, Power World from the 7 spot to win. Trainer Neil Howard clips along with 18% 2 YO winners and a 12% overall win rate, and he puts Prado up who clips along at 9% winning. those aren't knock the socks off numbers but I like his improved Beyer in grade 3 company and I like the sire Distorted Humor an awful lot. I'm looking to beat chalk and he looms logical to challenge.

The before mentioned expected heavy duty favorite will be Overdriven. The Tale of the Cat son out of Air France turned a :59 1/5 over 5f at SAR last week off the 100 Beyer at BEL on the first of the month. Trainer Pletcher has some pretty gaudy stats: 28% 2 YO winners, 29% won last start, 28% dirt, 30% sprints and 24% Graded Stakes. The jock/trainer clipped along at 32% of 88 starters at Saratoga last meet.

My next two are trainer by Wesley Ward who is putting up some good numbers himself: 30% 2 YO winners, 28% Dirt winners, 29% Sprint winners but 14% Graded Stakes. Black Rhino switches from the grass, something Ward does very well, but did not look good over dirt his first time out. Bless the Soldier is a Ward homebred who may ship to Monmouth instead so pay attention on race day to scratches and changes.

Finally, Jack's in the Deck has Dominguez up, that's 26% winner on 752 mounts Ramon Dominguez. A Grade 2 winner already, this Maryland bred is piloted from the outside and has a very strong closing kick.

How will the race unfold? Moonrush, Bless the Soldier and Black Rhino will race out the gate and churn out a :22 opening 1/4 mile. Jack's in the Deck will drift to the back with Power World and Overdriven will be rated into a stalk.

I'm gambling for the pure pleasure of it, but with the two year olds, as well as the competition that is present at a prestigious meet like Saratoga, you need to be prepared to lose. You only need to be smart now and then to stay slightly ahead and its my experience that I can do better with older horses at longer distances than I can with spa babies at 6 furlongs, so I'm going to keep my betting action reasonable.

I could go one of two ways. First up, Exacta. If I'm assembling an Exacta I'm only doing it with the chalk either in Place or out of the money and I'm hunting for value. Something like the 7 over the 8 or the 7 over 2 would get your 42 bucks back in buckets. I'd take 8 bucks and put together 4 combinations that don't include the chalk and see what happens.

My first love is Exotics, Superfecta's in particular. The 10 cent variety are available here and for $6.60 I can put the 6-7-8 OVER the 6-7-8 with the 2, 4,5,6,7,8, OVER 2,4,5,7 and 8.

I assume Overdriven finishes no lower than third and I give speedball Moonrush a chance at Show or fourth and I give Jack's in the Deck respect to hit anywhere.

OK, you've handicapped, it's safe now to look at the morning lines and the rantings of bloggers. Build your bets and let the dice fall how it may. Thanks for reading and hopefully you'll do well based on your own opinions.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 76th Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie and Post Race Analysis of Millions Preview Day

2011-07-17T08:08:00.004-04:00

The Turk likes to recharge his handicaper batteries from time to time, and there are fewer places that do that as well or as quickly as the beach. Last summer I took the entire month of July off, as a blogger and a handicapper. I restarted in August and had a very good string of races post handicappers holiday, and I can point to other personal examples of when I stopped handicapping for a bit only to come back stronger. It's funny too, I don't like to take breaks during a dry patch, it's often after a big signer that I need a break, as I get sloppy after I get phat.

Anyhow, the Turk is spending quite a bit of time on Arlington turf races this summer and I have the video of the Millions Preview Day from last week and I handicapped my home track, Fort Erie, for the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, The Prince of Wales Stakes. The Turk Clan was thrilled by Blind Luck/Harve de Grace getting it on again yesterday. It's that sort of rivalry that drives enthusiasm and anticipation for the races. I'm proving that I can vacation and still keep in touch with the races.

The Modesty Handicap Grade 3

The American Derby Grade 2

The Arlington Handicap Grade 3

Sister Turk is liking Pender Harbor and she knows horse flesh. Mrs. Turk is all about the Welloiledmachine's name. Grandma Turk has Show Money on Check Your Soul, Papa Turk has his money on Jock Carignan and Oh Canada. Little Turk, god bless his soul, likes class 'capping and has Bowman's Causeway and Deana and Daniel Turk are still mulling the pages of the Form over.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Arlington Park Millions Preview Day All Graded Stakes Pick 3

2011-07-09T07:56:00.007-04:00

Greatness: The word is used much too often in our culture. The professional sports world is a classic example where we are bombarded with being told which over hyped athlete has achieved "greatness". The Turk doesn't like to toss that word around easily, but friends, one of the saddest deaths in racing in the past few years was the great, Tuscan Evening, winner of the 2010 Modesty Handicap. I went to look for a picture that captured her spirit and this Jamie Newell photo gazes right into the mare's soul. Thanks to Jamie for this image and check out more of Jamie's inspired work at this link. If I talk too much about what that animal meant to me I'll get emotional, and I'd rather just remember her spirit and her will to win and know that she's on the other side waiting by the Rainbow Bridge for her kin and connections to join her.

The Little Turk has a soccer tournament this weekend which will limit my horse playing but not my handicapping. It's important to study the various racetracks you wish to play and the Arlington Millions is always a mid summer target of mine, so today's Millions Preview Day is like required reading. I'd like to hope that one day when Illinois racing is stabilized and Arlington Park becomes the track it is capable of being that they will do one key thing: You've got to get the purses much higher on Preview Day to attract the types of horses that will actually come to Millions Day. I won't even complain about the poly track, which I dislike, but turf favoring trainers do feel better about running over the plastic when the races come off so I won't rant about that today, but the purses have to get better.

Arlington Park Race 8-9-10

I've assembled no bet as I'm unlikely to play the sequence. That said, I'd be comfortable playing it as handicapped, as a Pick 3, with all the horses in blue covered as the base bet and then making some tough choices to get the investment to a reasonable size.

The races themselves will lend themselves to good betting and I see value in each of them. Today's a good day to play the 3rd and 4th bettors favorites on the tote board to win when you're drinking and socializing and not really handicapping, not that I condone such behavior! Saratoga and Del Mar open soon. I digress, but what a great thought.

Anyways, have fun with this friends or any other races you will be playing. I'm a big Summit of Speed fan and generally I dig the Hollywood Gold Cup, so in between soccer games I'll be checking in, keeping it on the down low of course. The post race analysis will be more important to me and studying the race pace and the way the jocks and trainers play it. Hopefully Millions Day will have the same great weather and track conditions: Firm, 5 inch grass height, cut and watered, temp rail 6 feet in or lane 3.

Good Stuff, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 3 July 2011: The Chicago Handicap Grade 3 at Arlington Park

2011-07-03T19:26:00.008-04:00

The Turk came as close as he's ever come to bragging earlier today when I discussed my handicapping knack: Identifying the top four. Now friends, I wasn't bragging, but I was pointing out that I'm less of a "winner picker" and more of a "layer identifier". OK Turk, WTF is a layer identifier?

While every field is different, within each field their are horses that are capable of winning, some capable of place and show, some capable of being on an exotic ticket and others that are just toss outs. Horses are wonderful animals but they don't read bald idiot bloggers like me, so there are factors like pace and traffic and sub-optimal surface conditions that sometimes blur the lines, sometimes wipe them out, but over time, over the mean average, results happen. I'm good at identifying which group each horse will fall into and with that, I'm disciplined enough to bet consistently, understanding I'll loose as many as 6 out of 10 boxed superfectas, but those 4 winners, those marvelous 4 winners, generally signers, more than make up for it.

A successful bet always starts with the handicap. It helps to have a field of sufficient size and quality. Regardless, the handicap is the key because without the ability to either "winner pick" or "layer identify", no matter how good a bettor you are, you just won't win. The Turk took down over $2000 on a simple 4 horse boxed superfecta, using the bettors least favorite horse, La Rocca as the Place horse, exactly where he ended up finishing. I don't get that hung up with "winner picking", I had the winner in my box and the payout is only a function of where the odds finish. La Rocca is the handicapping smarts you acquire after looking at Past Performances for multiple decades and the bet is the discipline that comes from, well, being disciplined (thanks Dad and the US Navy).

Arlington Park Race 9: The Chicago Handicap Grade III

So what did I like about La Rocca? Trainer Stidham is clipping along at 32% at AP, but he had two enties, the second, Lookn Even Finer, had Rosie Napravnik up, while La Rocca had 10% AP winner S.B. Martinez up. At first glance you may think the trainer is favoring Lookn Even Finer: look out for that angle, the weaker of a trainers two entrys. I liked the long and continuous AP track work, especially the 4F :47 and 4/5ths and 5f 1:00. I liked the 22% first time with trainer stat. The final sell for me, while Stidham is only 7% winner with >180 day layoffs the horse responded well off a long layoff from late 2009 into 2010. The last factor? Nobody else was that impressive as I rattled off the good and bad pre-race.

Home's the Best, the Illinois bred, was vanned off at the end of the race. Here's hoping the 7 year old mare is OK.

This is the kind of race that fuels my positive ROI and its a good example of what I try to explain to my readers and the ingredients to success: a solid pre race handicap, the horses slotted and fair odds gaged, and a consistent type of bet (at a bet amount I was perfectly comfortable losing and still being able to pay for Little Turk's braces).

Happy Fourth of July friends. I'll be back tomorrow with my fifth track of the weekend, Churchill Downs and the Firecracker Handicap over the grass tomorrow. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Chicago Handicap at Arlington Park and a Post Race Analysis of Graded Stakes Grab Bag

2011-07-03T08:17:00.006-04:00

The Turk likes to take time to celebrate the little steps along the long road of life and The Turk and Little Turk have reached a milestone, 400 Blog Posts.

In the big picture those 400 Blog Posts didn't add anything to society but they did do wonderful things for me personally: I've met some truly interesting people and I have acquaintances and friends I can meet at all the major tracks around the country when I'm looking to enjoy a social moment and not just a hard core degenerate betting experience. Before the blog, before Facebook, Twitter, the web, I was alone in the horse racing experience, buying the form and placing my bets. The world spilled wide open and it was satori to realize that like minded people all over the country existed. The Turk and the Little Turk started as a simple outlet to post the 3H's: Horses, handicapping and our personal hijinks's. We've kept our simple approach and we have no intention of being anything other than what we currently are.

Thank you all for reading!

I enjoyed the smorgasbord of racing I handicapped yesterday, even if after I handicapped I felt that it was a pretty uninspiring collection of betting races, as the fields were a bit small and, quite honestly, I had no feel for a few of them. The best handicap and potentially the best bet I would have made was the Superfecta on the United Nations, powered by Teaks North finishing on top.

I'm in full blown 4th of July weekend relaxation mode; I always thought this would be the best weekend for the Millions preview at Arlington but the folks there think differently. As much as I love to handicap the grass at Arlington, I pretty much have had extremely mixed results handicapping the fake dirt there over the past two years. Today I take a swing at The Chicago Handicap, a seven furlong affair for Fillies and Mares, with my only real objective being to play the card and get a feel for the surface again.

Let's recap yesterday briefly and get to today's Chicago Handicap.

The Dwyer

The Suburban Handicap

The Shoemaker Mile

The Triple Bend Handicap

Everyone should have their own style of handicapping and betting; mine is to handicap, without morning lines or any pre race hype news articles, and then build a bet strategy after that. One downside is I often handicap races that have little to offer as betting opportunities to make cash at, but if you study the Past Performances, the Race Chart and the video, the effort is seldom wasted. Dominus was allowed to go through easy fractions in a yawner of a Dwyer. We wondered aloud where the pace would come from pre race and it never really came. With the scratch of Rocking Out the field dropped to six, the super option went away and this became a race to watch and keep the wallet in the pocket. We did have Adios Charlie finishing in Place. I keep stats for myself, which I don't bore you folks with, of my base handicaps that are contrarian to heavy chalk. Even without betting I take something away from this race and we move along.

In Race 10, The Suburban Handicap, I must admit that this field left me perplexed. In the history of my 400 blog postings I'm not sure I ever put up a handicap where I didn't toss someone, anyone. I had no intention of betting this race and I didn't and I'm glad as I would have never bet Flat Out. I was impressed by Hymn Book, who I discounted, but the bettors didn't, off the strong last race off the turf effort beating I Want Revenge (which use to mean something, but I am confused by what distance Rodman is best suited for because I dunno.

There is no bragging, ever, from the Turk. I keep to a strong code and bragging is prohibited. The closest I may ever come to bragging will be to describe what i do well as a handicapper. The United Nations is the text book superfecta win I assemble pretty regularly. A nice 10 horse field with a very clear line between who will be in the top 5 and who wouldn't be. Teaks North past performance had a bullet handride 4f :47 effort and a Grade 3 96 Beyer win effort at Monmouth on June 12th. I disliked the lack of wins at the distance but I made note of the 3 of 3 on Monmouth turf and 4 wins in nine tries on Turf. Nice win but I expected a top four finish, not exactly a win spot. The others just slotted in and the super paid $377. I call those workmanlike, not sexy.

The two Hollywood Park races I passed on as well and we'll just leave it to the video to tell those stories.

I handicap many more races than I could possibly blog. I'll handicap the whole Arlington card today and I'll start handicapping Arlington more over the next several weeks as I target Millions Preview Day and Millions Day. A fairly even collection of fillies and mares will contest today's Chicago Handicap. Florida Bred Hooh Why is is lifetime money winner as well as the high Beyer on fake dirt. The 5 Yo mare comes in off an N3X win at 7f on the AP fake stuff in mid June, but some 25 Beyer points lower than her lifetime best. Tidal Pool brings some name recognition and a 0-60 Graded Stakes streak in for D. Wayne Lukas. Dr. Zic competes almost exclusively in graded stakes action but doesn't win much; a nice Grade I at KEE in April 2010 seems along time ago now. Devil By Design is coming off a very long layoff, something Bill Mott wins 16% of the time. The 5 YO Medeglia d'Oro daughter hasn't done much in 11 months. La Rocca is with trainer Michael Stidham for the first time, a 22% win angle but he puts Martinez and his 10% win rate instead of Napravnik and her 21% win clip, whom he has up on his other entrant, Lookn Even Finer, who switches from turf/synth at a 24% clip and 23% winner off the fillies last race win. the former claimer is starting to grow on me.

Who did I miss? Illinois Bred Home's the Best ran a nice 93 Beyer at 1 1/8 miles over the fake AP dirt in late May and Hot Hot Mama doesn't have much but her name to excite me.

I handicapped and I'll watch to see how it all flops out. Have a good holiday weekend.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Graded Stakes Grab Bag: 5 Races, 3 Tracks and 1 Fat Cigar on Standby

2011-07-02T10:34:00.009-04:00

Life is full of complications, dichotomies, and at times, confusion. One day you wake up and you're told that red wine is bad for you, the next day it's good for you. More protein, less fat, more fat, eat carbohydrates, don't eat carbohydrates, reading in the dark is bad, no it's OK, to this, not that, blah blah blah. Our poor society seems to be stuck developmentally as well. Why can't we tear eyes away from the trial of a sad figure who failed her child on so many levels? Why do we spend taxpayer money building overpriced stadiums for professional sports that print dollars, only to have these billionaires lock out the millionaires and deny the minimum wage employees their own incomes? Why do we spend more than any sane country should on education only to not see tangible results? The Turk is troubled by the world, and I have no answers for any of the questions that leave me thinking, but what I do have is a game I turn to, a collection athletes that never go on strike, that want nothing more than to please and be cared for. A game that allows me to analyze, compare, wager if I choose. A game that is far from perfect but does offer up slices of heaven.

If you're a horseplayer you are most likely a hedonist at heart. I'm not talking about scantily clad folks lounging around a poolside bar in the Caribbean thinking about who next to introduce themselves too (although there is nothing wrong with that!) I'm talking a more pure pleasure seeker, one who looks at the horses, sees beauty, looks at the game and sees opportunity. Risk and Reward: I handicap, I bet, I win, I lose, but at the end of the day I have calmness and the belief that of all that is bad in the world, I still have the horses, I still have my family, and I still have my health, not in that particular order.

I have a Romeo Y Julieta waiting for me today no matter how I handicap. Inside my humidor, amongst the 100 or so sticks of pleasure is a special cigar, an aging piece of old Havana. I hold it in reserve for a magical day at the windows, without any definition of what a magical day would mean. I can't predict when that day will come, and I'm not even sure how to predict the possibility of its arrival, but I keep playing the races, and I win my share, and I know it isn't far away...like the rapture (maybe I'm off by a few months too?.

Anyhow, I don't often to burden my readers with the ramblings of a middle aged handicapper but I guess today was just one of those days. I'm feeling a bit blue because I missed an opportunity to see old friends last night as duty called. As therapy I've assembled a series of races, like I would if i was marketing the sport to grow the game not just the objectives of certain people, organizations or track conglomerates. If I were the czar I would bundle 2 hours each Saturday night of graded stakes action from multiple tracks and go bam...bam...bam...across the TV screen until the two hours was up, and I'd do it again the following week. I would stop trotting C list celebrities out on the screen and I would instead enlist the best communicators of the game we have and let them sell it. I liked my idea last week too: I'd target sports columnists at all the major papers and start bringing them to the track, because the track sells itself. Slowly but surely these folks, either on the radio, or in the opinion pieces, will start to talk horse racing.

You poor folks, let's just get after it!

Five Races, 3 Tracks, all Graded Stakes over 172 Minutes stating at 5:16 ET

I'm not sure where I come out today. While The Ol' Turk is mostly a Pick Four player, sometimes I just want to be fan and watch the races without much concern over the tote board and my ADW account. I've built handicaps I can play and have some fun with, and I'll most likely go no deeper than exactas an tri's, but we'll see. I started at Belmont, jumped to Monmouth and ended at Hollywood, with a little break near the last race to char grill some good eats.

The Dwyer at Belmont leads us off at 5:16. 7 horses, 1 turn for this grade 2 event with the 3 year olds. Adios Charlie will attract heavy coin, perhaps serious show pool money, but I'm looking for Tech Fall to take a step forward. A quick peek at the morning lines after I handicapped showed he was 10-1. I'll be happy with anything >6-1. Anthony Dutrow's runner makes only his 5th start, with R. Dominguez up for the first time. The son of Birdstone has steadily improved and is working in the morning very well. He'll come just off the pace. A pace set by who? Harlan's Hello will press the pace before fading, and Dominus should be there as well, but I would expect Adios Charlie and Tech Fall to duel in the stretch, with perhaps a bid by an Angel Pena trained Cool Blue Red Hot or Dick Dutrow's Rocking Out. Adios Charlie has been training very nice at Saratoga but Trainer Hough only wins 7% of his 31-60 day layoffs. We'll be expecting him to run good at the Spa.

The Suburban is next up, sans Haynesfield this year, the race that made him a real player. It's a solid six horse field, but its still six horses that would be so much better with 8 or 9. I like Rodman to win. I think he is the pick but just behind him are some real quality runners which makes this quite interesting. Colizeo will need a good trip and look for a setup to run against. Convocation has had mixed results since placing in this race last year. Hymn Book came off the grass last time out and ran good over a sealed big sandy but I'd put him behind Icabad Crane and Flat Out. This is gambling folks, I have no idea how this one will unfold.

Monmouth offers up one the the great Grade I turf events of the year, the United Nations. If you're a fan of the grass, you'll love this 1 3/8 classic. My chalk is Bourbon Bay; 3 of 4 in the money this year and 5 of 5 in the money in 2010, as well as 13 of 17 in the money on grass. Alan Garcia is up, 16% winner, hmmmm. He ships in from the left coast where he has trained steady for Trainer Drysdale. Sucker for the name too.

It's a coin toss with Chinchon and Stacelita, two Euros that can really stay. Stacelita, 5 YO mare, with Joe Bravo up, has $1.5 MM in earnings in 14 starts with 8 wins while Chinchon, the 6 YO horse has $1.9MM in 23 tries with 5 wins.

Teaks North and Sleepless Knight, the Breen trained George and Lori Hall runner, seem to be logical Show and Exotic contenders, with Eldaafer somewhere in the exotic mix possibly, while everyone else is getting tossed for better or worse. Teaks North may be peaking and is 3 of 3 over Monmouth turf. He seems to represent some real value. Watch the tote board!

The grilled will get started around this time but while it's heating up I jump to Hollywood about 1/2 hour later for the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. I may be a bit giddy from my earlier blog ranting but I'm backing Liberian Freighter over most likely higher ranking and superior animals, Caracortado and Courageous Cat. Martin Garcia is up and I expect the 5 time Hollywood Turf winner will bounce back from his last 1 mile effort in the Grade 2 American.

Courageous Cat comes in off a huge last race winning Grade 3 effort on good turf at Belmont. The Mott trainer tries Hollywood for the first time. Caracortado needs no introduction but does need a win, as he's had some dull efforts lately. Victor's Cry makes his first try back after going to Dubai but once this last year on long odds. Blue Chagall is background noise.

With a 90 minute break to eat I'll end with the Grade I Triple Bend Handicap. I'm intrigued byu a class challenged Color of Courage, a 4 YO gelding who has 2 wins at HOL on the fake dirt and two straight 100 + Beyers in the process. Mike Smith left him for Amazombie, as he would of course do, but don't discount.

Amazombie and Smiling Tiger are the two heavy hitters here, with M One Rifle in the next pack back. Camp Victory might not be buying that conventional thinking and with Talamo up, the Forest Camp claimer may be ready to turn the tables.

So there you have it, good stuff all the way around. I don't think weather will be a concern today, but check the track conditions, scratches and changes and the tote board for value. Do your own handicapping and don't let morning lines, TV talking heads or bald handicappers like me influence your thinking in any way.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 25, 2011: The Cornhusker Handicap Day Late Pick Four at Prairie Meadows

2011-06-27T21:31:00.007-04:00

I'm not sure about you race fans, but I enjoyed the action at Prairie Meadows this past weekend, especially Saturday night. As predicted, there were money magnets in the races, as both the Iowa Oaks and the Iowa Derby had a 1 to 2 horse taking heavy action and both horses, Daisy Devine and Astrology, finished out of the money. You hard core types know what that means, cha-chang!

I am kicking myself a bit: If you would have bet my pick 4 as I laid out Saturday morning exactly as I had it, you would have spent $180 and returned $1556.50. I went cheap in Race 10, the $12,500 Maiden Claimer and covered only three horses instead of five. These races are hard to predict and I should have just covered what I handicapped, but The Turk is human and I do leave money on the table from time to time. No matter how experienced or good you think you are, you will make mistakes, if that's even the right term. I was comfortable with a $180 Pick Four bet but I hate to over-cover and I out-thought myself. I try not to dwell on the mistakes and I'll move along.

The Iowa Oaks

The Iowa Derby

The Cornhusker Handicap

I had a thought tonight: The sport is marketed constantly to a wide public audience with mixed results. A big problem is so few sports reporters give a hoot about racing. It's time the sport "targets" key reporters and columnists at major old media news organizations and sponsors trips to the track. The track is the drug, the track is what sells itself. The more columnists and radio talk show hosts that talk up their love of the sport, the more it will sink into the mainstream again.

Who loves football wildcard games on Saturday Nights? Prairie Meadows, with the big races going off between 9-10 PM Eastern time, could have been huge had it been marketed by a organization that had racing's best interests in mind, not just the interest of a big track. Just sayin'....

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: June 25, 2011: The Cornhusker Handicap Day Late Pick 4 at Prairie Meadows

2011-06-25T10:09:00.008-04:00

The future of horseracing? Perhaps that's a bit too dour a thought, but micro festivals like this weekend at Prairie Meadows, where racino kickbacks drummed up $1.0 MM in purse money, can attract nice fields, good crowds and handle.

We have a fast dirt track, with tight corners and fun racing under the lights and this Turk is thinking ahead that next year he'll venture back to corn country for these two days of racing. Grade III events? I've seen weaker Grade I's already this year.

By the way, that fine looking horse in the neon green and purple dot silks of RNB Racing is Shadowbdancing, last year's winner of the previous Grade 2 Cornhusker Handicap and the Place horse from 2009's edition.

Let's get after it!

Prairie Meadows Race 7-8-9-10

While I built a Pick Four Bet, the races themselves I think will be quite interesting, as there are money magnets in every race and a few second tier runners at longer prices looking to knock their blocks off. Hard not to like!

Race 7 may be the weakest of the bunch, a six horse Iowa Oaks. Daisy Devine is the heavyweight contender here; far from unbeatable but pretty solid, with a Grade 2 Fairgrounds Oaks win.

Little Miss Holly will loom at something greater than 3-1; training sharply at CD for trainer Margolis and a last race winner.

Two that intrigue me are Hearts on Fire and All about Allie. Donnie von Hemel's Hearts on Fire is 5 of 5 in the money on Fast dirt, 2 of 2 in the money at the distance and has placed at PrM. 2nd effort off a 45 day layoff. All About Allie is an Arkansas bred Sanders Brothers home bred and trained who has run well at PrM and while lacking class, seems to be gutty. Only two tosses from the field that is only lacking quantity not quality.

In the Iowa Derby we have two Triple Crown nominees and the Preakness Stakes Show horse ready to rumble. I think the class of Astrology and Caleb's Posse will win the day and its a coin toss for me which one wins it.

In the second tier is a Zayat Stable runner for trainer Bob Baffert, Prayers for Relief. He's a lightly raced, off the pace late runner trying dirt for the first time and I think he'll gain name recognition as the year goes on, just not here, but Baffert didn't bring him to lose so you have no choice but take notice and slot him in the money.

Dreaminofthewin may be a bit of a stretch but this is gambling after all. Irish Lion and Chosen Miracle both have the potential to get up for show money as well, and Chosen Miracle is stretching out to a distance his pedigree suggests is just right.

The main event is a strong and deep field for a racino Grade 3 event. Awesome Gem is the headliner. The West Point Thoroughbreds runner has a last race best 101 Beyer. Surprisingly consistent ant in his 8th year but is 0 of 9 at the distance and always more interested in place and show than win. I'm hoping he draws lots of money his way as I'll be looking in a different direction.

The Michael Maker runner Headache and the Michael Biehler runner Stachys both have my attention. Headache is 12 of 15 in the money on fast dirt and comes in off a 1 1/16 CD N3X win. Stachys has won at PrM and is consistent and fast off the pace.

It Happened Again is a former claimer running for Steve Asmussen with Mike Smith, up. That will do something for your position on the tote board! The five year old is very capable and this is his second effort off a long layoff. Beware.

I like Alexis Barba's Victory Pete. Only the 6 year olds second dirt effort and Bejarano goes up here.

The races are later in the day so check the scratches and changes and the weather to make sure nothing impacts your handicapping. This should be a fun night and I hope you approach it as such, I think racing would do well to have more prime time Saturday night racing shows.

Enjoy the day, have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 18, 2011: The Colonial Downs Colonial Turf Cup Day

2011-06-19T21:50:00.002-04:00

Happy Fathers Day to all my horseplayer friends, readers and family. That handsome collection of fella's are all the fathers in The Turk's immediate family, taken on the deck of the Turk household where we enjoyed each others company, great food, fine cigars and spirits. There are plenty of fathers no longer with us anymore, and I can think of some wonderful horseplayers that taught me that the races are so much better when you can enjoy them with your family, so no matter where you were today, I raise my whiskey glass and salute all the men who share the fraternity of fatherhood with me.

There were some lovely races to pick from yesterday, and some thrilling stars competing as well. Who can't look at Blind Luck and get excited? For me as a player, I wanted to pick a sequence of races over turf to have a go with, and I settled on the Colonial Downs Colonial Turf Cup day as my weekend target. While I ultimately passed on the Pick Three, I had some success and doubled my money with good handicapping and a reasonable, if not conservative bet strategy.

Let's get after it!

I passed on a Pick Three bet. The sequence seemed really chalky to me and I couldn't get excited about it. I made a mistake too and I wanted a pick four and assumed there would be one from race 6-9 but that wasn't the case; even experienced players make assumptions and mistakes and I wasted time handicapping a 5 furlong maiden two year old filly race, yawn! The lesson is pretty self explanatory and I urge everyone to double check the race conditions before planning bet options.

After my mistake, the Da Hoss didn't go well for me. My chalk was also the bettor's top choice, Mikoshi, who finished a length back in Show. 9-1 Followmyfootsteps took the wire with 12-1 Action Andy for Place, with 15-1 Vanquisher fourth, a combo that powered a $3,650 $1 Super and a $3,700 $2 Trifecta. Nice payouts, but I wasn't in the right zip code on that one. Moving on...

Race 7 was the Edward Evans All Along Grade 3. With heavy duty chalk Aruna singled, I crafted a cheap-o superfecta bet that cost $24 and paid $77. Workmanlike and a reminder that you don't have to be afraid to play with heavy chalk.

The the Colonial Turf Cup I returned to the same bet structure I used on race 6, a five horse superfecta box. I was a bit surprised at the action Rahystrada captured as I had the former claim fifth on my chart, but he made the final cut and powered a $490 superfecta win, with my strong move placing Dark Cove high while the rest of the betting public had him 6th.

All in all the results were better than a sharp stick in the eye even though it wasn't what I'd consider a good betting card. Doubling your money is not some automatic process, but by sticking to sound handicapping fundamentals and then practical betting strategies, you can learn to string good days together. Today's key was identifying contenders from pretenders and then slotting them into the top five, regardless if I thought they'd be under or overlays. I handicap without morning lines and I encourage horse players to do that: Don't let any bias interfere with your handicapping and morning line odds are just that, another players bias. After you handicap and before you prepare bets, take a gander at both the morning lines and the tote board; it's a thrill when you have a horse high on the board and others aren't as bullish, and it's also important to know what to expect if you do win. In Race 7 if I would have done a 5 horse superfecta box for $120 dollars I would have pulled the worst magic trick in racing, turning a big pile of money into a small pile of money.

And finally, the reason why I work crazy hours, why I travel my ass off, put up with a Blackberry that never stops ringing, is also the greatest gift a man could want, my son, Little Turk. He's quite a fine young man and I'm proud to be his dad.

Happy Fathers Day All, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: June 18, 2011; The Colonial Downs Pick Three including The Colonial Turf Cup

2011-06-18T12:54:00.008-04:00

Friends, you have lots of good cards to pick from this weekend, and for me, I'm playing Colonial Downs in honor of Edward Evans who passed away earlier this year.

I went into the handicapping thinking I'd build a Pick Three, but the handicapping comes before the bet strategy for a reason and this sequence looks awful chalky. Chalky can work to your advantage if you can find one runner in one race that is viewed dismissively by the betting public: Singling the chalks ain't gonna get you a seat at the National Handicapping Championship if you're into that sort of thing.

The three race sequence fits in nicely in the Saturday schedule, as all three go off between 7 and 8 PM Eastern. The weather is a mixed bag, hot with a potential for thunderstorms. I'm handicapping for firm to good turf.

Let's get after it!

Colonial Downs Race 6-8

Race 6 is the $50,000 Da Hoss on the inner turf. Mikoshi is 13 of 17 in the money on the turf and 3 of 5 in the money at the distance. Mike Matz has R. Dominguez up, who is riding in Philadelphia earlier in the day. I'll look for a price in the P3 with Pocket Patch: 8 of 16 in the money on turf with 5 wins, into his third effort in his fitness cycle and the 6 year old gelding looks primed. I'll most likely cover Baletti as well; the 7 YO gelded son of Gulch is more than capable.

Race 7 is Edward P. Evans All Along Grade 3. Aruna looks really mighty compared to this group. Trainer Motion puts Dominguez up and the 4 YO Mr. Greely daughter has strung 4 very good races in a row together and she has 4 wins in 9 tries over the grass. Motion has Apple Charlotte entered here as well as Delaware. The Smart Strike daughter is training sharply and has had two strong efforts since early April. Dyna Waltz is a Sheppard/Strawbridge runner who poses a big threat and I may cover La Cloche as well, a Ghostzapper who is also entered at Delaware, so watch the scratches and changes.

And Race 8 is the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup. I like Smart Bid quite a bit and I'm not s high on Court Vision at this point in his career, but with this field, he's still dangerous. Dark Cove and Moryba (Brz) offer a chance for a good price. Dark Cove has seemed poised to be something for so long, now would be a good time as it would really juice this pick three up.

Have fun with whatever you are playing today friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Manhattan Handicap and Belmont Stakes

2011-06-11T16:22:00.005-04:00

Sometimes you have to change positions on the fly. I went into the day thinking Pick 4 at Belmont, but I just couldn't get my hands around the way the track is playing and I chose not to place a Pick 4 wager. Good thing, as I would never have picked Justin Phillip in the Woody Stephen.

Pick and choose your spots, and on days with tough weather, watch the races closely. I've got HRTV on, streaming through my Mac Mini that is HDMI'd into the TV and its pretty clear that spreed is striking the lead and staying over distance. It's sloppy and ugly and that's a wild card as a bettor you can either accept and live with, or, novel idea, just don't bet. Anyone who tells you they are a disciplined bettor but then talks about being an action play bettor isn't being honest with themselves or you.

Let's get after these nice Grade I events and do our best with the surfaces.

BEL Race 10 and 11: The Grade I Manhattan Handicap and Grade I Belmont Stakes

I'm going to let the spreadsheet speak for itself and I'm going to instead start mixing drinks and enjoy the rest of the day. These Triple Crown days are fantastic friends and family events and I use them as an opportunity to invite people to the house and spread the gospel of racing. I'm doing my part to market the sport...and drink bourbon!

I'm going Superfecta hunting, have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Leg 2 of Late Pick Four on Belmont Stakes Day; The Just A Game Grade I

2011-06-11T14:48:00.005-04:00

The Turk's chalk in the Grade I Just a Game is C.S. Silk, captured to the left in a nice photo by Candice Chavez, who we thank for its use.

Expect yielding turf, no better than soft going. None of the runners had significant soft going experience so I started with a review of their abilities over the expected turf and settled on covering four from this field of nine, in this the second leg of the late Pick Four.

Let's get after it!

C.S. Silk is a five year old mare daughter of Medaglia d' Oro trained by Dale Romans. She's been training over Belmont turf now for the over a month after a so-so effort over yielding turf at KEE in April. Cutting back in distance, 9 of 14 in the money over turf and 3 of 4 in the money at the distance. Very tepid chalk but I'm expecting a decent price and this is gambling afterall!

Aviate (GB) with Kent Desormeaux up, comes in off a win in Grade 2, 1 mile turf event at CD. Tied with Amen Hallelujah with last race best Beyer. Mott's winning 19% of his Won Last Start's and 17% of his Graded Stakes, with a solid 15% over grass.

Strike the Bell is a bit of a stretch but I like the 6 of 9 in the money at BEL and 11 of 15 in the money on turf for Trainer Donk who places Ramon Dominguez up, a 28% winner.

Fantasia (GB), trained by J. Sheppard for Augustin Stables, has a yielding turf, 1 mile win from last October at WO. Winless in 2011, the five year old Sadler's Well mare ran a poor Just A Game a year ago.

I most likely will work Gypsy's Warning (SAf) in too; Team Valor's six year old Leparox up is 14 of 17 in the money over turf with 7 wins and is 5 of 5 in the money at the distance, she's also starting over BEL turf for the first time. 2nd effort in 2011, Trainer Motion is winning 22% of his Graded Stakes and is 19% over grass. Very impressive and demands attention.

I like Amen Hallelujah, just not in this spot. R.Dutrow and IEAH, not so much.

have fun friends, more later, Turk Out!