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| Stay Hot wins The La Jolla: Benoit Photo |
Hello friends and Welcome to The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and develop exacta bet constructions. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me an opportunity to write for you today. I've changed jobs over the past year, and I had to put handicapping on the back burner for most of this year. Every few years my output on the blog diminishes, but my love of horse racing remains, and I suspect 2025 will be a record year for my blog in terms of output.
My new job involved recently a trip to Australia and Hong Kong. In both locations I met more race fans than I typically meet in the States. I also got to lay my eyes on the track at Hong Kong which has always fascinated me.
For years I've handicapped Churchill Down's day after Thanksgiving card, but turf runners with a future at Del Mar fits more with what I'm trying to accomplish anyways. After today, I'll shut it down for my writing until the day after Christmas timeframe and the start of the Santa Anita season. I love the ebb and flow of the horse racing calendar, I hope it can survive these times in Southern California.
Handicapping turf races is more nuanced than dirt horse racing, requiring a keen understanding of the distinct characteristics of turf tracks, the horses, and the specific conditions that influence performance and demands a strategy that differs significantly from dirt and while others disagree, I have success viewing and approaching it like synthetic surface races.
Today's blog featured race, the Hollywood Derby G1 is a prestigious Grade I turf race for 3 YO thoroughbreds. Its long history, competitive field, and scenic venue make it a significant highlight of the fall racing season and often provides a launching pad for the 3 YOs not ready to jump to the breeding shed (aka- my favorite kind of 3 YOs).
Originally inaugurated in 1938 at the now-defunct Hollywood Park in Inglewood, California, the race was relocated to Del Mar Racetrack in 2014 following Hollywood Park's closure. Despite the change in venue, the Hollywood Derby has retained its historic importance and has continued to attract top-tier competitors from across the nation, although as I've ranted many times before, I think they should retire these races and rename them when the original tracks close. In my opinion, the1 1/8-mile (9 furlongs) distance on turf is ideal for showcasing the tactical speed and endurance of young thoroughbreds. Many of these horses in their 3 YO seasons have either raced lightly on Turf or the Conditioners are still trying to match the horse to the conditions book. That can create interesting improvements in a horses form and results.
Del Mar Racetrack, famous for its slogan “Where the Turf Meets the Surf,” provides a stunning backdrop for the Hollywood Derby. Past winners of the Hollywood Derby include iconic names such as Citation, the 1948 Triple Crown champion, and Snow Chief, who achieved fame in the 1980s. The list of victors is a testament to the race's competitive quality and its influence on the sport. In recent years, notable winners of the Hollywood Derby include Mo Forza (2019), who became a standout on the turf circuit, and Domestic Spending (2020), a Chad Brown-trained colt who went on to win multiple G1 races, solidifying his status as one of the best turf horses in North America.
Understanding Turf Tracks
Turf surfaces tend to be softer than dirt tracks, offering less traction and more give. This impacts the way horses run, favoring those with a smooth, efficient stride over those with a choppier, more powerful action. Horses with turf-specific pedigrees often excel, as certain bloodlines are known for producing runners suited to the demands of grass racing.
Additionally, turf tracks are highly sensitive to weather conditions. Rain can soften the ground, turning it into yielding or soft turf, while extended dry spells can result in firm conditions. For today, we will just assume firm turf and Del Mar and Santa Anita, non rainy season, have been known for fast firm turf for decades. A quick look at the weather forecast validates this assumption.
Handicappers must pay close attention to the track condition reported on race day, as some horses excel on firm ground while others perform better on softer surfaces. I find this is best by looking at the track's recent race results as well as track conditions and changes section of the website. These tracks have varying degrees of useful websites. Del Mar's is one of the best websites.
I don't do this often, but a little Turf Racing 101 for you:
Pedigree: Evaluating a horse’s pedigree is crucial for turf handicapping. Horses bred from sires and dams with a proven record on turf are more likely to succeed. Look for horses with European bloodlines, as they are often bred specifically for turf racing, where it is more prevalent.
Running Style: Turf races often favor horses with a late-closing or stalking running style. This is because turf races typically unfold at a more measured pace than dirt races, with a strong emphasis on finishing speed. Horses with a powerful turn of foot in the final furlongs tend to have an edge, especially in route distances. I look at every horse early and late Timeform US Pace figs to get a feel for early and late speed and how tactical a horse has run at the distance. I link this to Pace Analysis: Understanding the pace scenario is critical in turf races. A slow early pace can favor horses near the lead, while a fast pace might set up perfectly for a closer. Handicappers should analyze the pace setup to predict which horses might benefit most.
Jockeys and Trainers:
Certain jockeys and trainers specialize in turf racing and have developed strategies suited to its intricacies. For example, top turf jockeys excel at timing their moves perfectly in the stretch. Researching a trainer’s turf win percentage and a jockey's familiarity with the surface can provide a valuable edge. For example, Fresu/Eurton 23% winners on 43 starts, Rispoli/McCarthy 25% winners on 53 starts standout to me for volume as well as quality, but don't discount Berrios/Shirreffs 25% on 12 starts or Dettori/Thomas 26% on 23 starts but all tracks, first at Del Mar. Its a tool.
Form and Experience: Horses that have previously performed well on turf, especially under similar conditions, are worth noting. Pay attention to recent races and the competition faced. Horses transitioning from dirt to turf for the first time may struggle unless their pedigree or training suggests aptitude for the surface. The concept of Class is important: Look at Career Earnings; Look at the quality of Races the horse has run in.
Turf racing often features larger fields, which can make picking a winner more challenging but also lead to higher payouts. The unpredictability of weather and the variability of turf conditions require constant vigilance. However, for handicappers who invest the time to analyze these factors, turf races offer exciting opportunities to profit. I love a niche part of a niche sport, what can I say!
I'll leave you with two pieces of advice that have served me very well on the handicapping and then bet construction side of the coin:
1. Ignore outside bias: Don't read about the race before you handicap and don't look at the morning lines. I print my Formulator PPs without the Morning Line and only look at it when I'm blogging to insert into my chart. All those bias, including the talking heads on the TV broadcasts, will influence your thinking.
2. Do pay attention to the Tote Board: What other bettors think matters way more than anything else. Identify over and under lays and bet accordingly for value. No one will respect your chalky exacta win because its a recipe to lose money over the long haul. Be brave, go deep in your handicap for that late turn of foot. Remember long shots much more likely to take Place than the Win.
Anyways, enough rambling, lets get after it!
The Hollywood (please) Derby G1: 1 1/8 miles on presumably hard turf for 3 YOs.
Just a few videos to review:
26 October 2024; Twilight Derby G2: 1 1/8 Miles firm Turf, Santa Anita.
1 September 2024; Del Mar Derby G2; 1 1/8 Miles firm Turf
4 August 2024; The La Jolla Handicap (5 horse field); 1 1/6 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar
5 October 2024; The Jockey Club Derby Invitational G3; 1 3/8 Miles firm Turf; Aqueduct.
31 October 2024; The Let it Ride Stakes $100K; 1 Mile Firm Turf; Del Mar
I think my base handicap indicates pretty clearly the lack of a true consensus chalk and the depth of this field is impressive. I generally avoid 3 YO turf races is the lack of a true sample size of efforts at this age on this surface, but if you like unpredictable and the chance of big payouts, a 13 horse field where at least two of my tosses could win, is pretty good.
I'm looking at some sort of exacta;
Let's play it out. A box of all my potential Win-Place-Show-Exotic (8 of the 13 horses) is a $56 dollar bet. The likelihood of making a return is mid to low.
I think this is more like how I'll approach:
Stay Hot/Carson's Run/Formidable Man covered in both spots and the others in the Place position, a $1 Dollar Bet for $21.
Stay Hot/Carson's Run/Atitlan in both spots with Formidable Man, Twirling Point and Cathal in Place, a $1 Bet for $15. This is my bet.
Have fun my friends, Happy Thanksgiving!
Turk Out
