Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where we focus on handicapping and exacta betting of Turf Horse Races.
Every year, when I'm mentally engaged, and that engagement has returned for me, I enjoy the progression of races , and the horse athletes. It helps your handicapping tremendously to follow the flow of the Conditions Book and where the Trainers bring their runners next. Getting second and third looks at these horses really allows you to project ahead and find those overlays that every horse player needs to make up for the inevitable misses. One I've been tracking is that beautiful Grey/Roan pictured, The Grey Wizard (Ire). Motion and Velazquez have a lot of horse, only 2 races into the geldings 4 YO campaign, and already the resume is impressive: A Place in a G3 and G2 and a very impressive 1 1/4 Turf Allowance win last time out here at Santa Anita (video below). If you play the horses long enough you get to watch 3-4 year careers at best, and that's one reason I like turf racing as they tend to race longer. My favorite part of the sport is watching horses like Dicey Mo Chara succeed, and horses like The Grey Wizard to emerge. Each race is an opportunity for that, and the progression these horses will take through the calendar, across the meets, just adds to it. It's a great sport if it can ever be managed in a more unified fashion. Anyways, I leave those sorts of topics for more professional writers, and I stick to my thing. Let's get after it!
The San Marcos Grade 3: 1 1/4 Miles on Downhill Turf Course for 4 YO and Up
I've added a new column to my analysis beginning with this race. As I've always done, I adjust the Morning Line to percentage which includes track takeout, the ever increasing tack takeout, and from there I adjust the ML to 100% by lowering each horse by the 33% takeout that the ML's add to the win odds. I'm trying to find apples and apples with the fair line, and while this method isn't perfect, it's helpful to me to make this conversion and look for the inconsistencies. Expect the Turf to be firm and the weather good. I don't see any threat to turf conditions degrading.
Let's take a look at some relevant recent video.
John Henry Turf Cup G2: SA 1 1/14 Miles Firm; 1 Oct 2022
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