Anatomy of a Bet: The Sand Spring Stakes at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk blog, in our 11th year of handicapping and bet construction here on the interwebs and in our 33rd year of being a degenerate horse player.

I had no particular rooting interest in yesterday's Sand Spring Stakes, the tenth race on the Gulfstream Park card on Florida Derby Day.  I picked a race to blog about with one one criteria other than my main criteria of being a turf race and that was field size, which the race had nine entered and eight went to post.

My early season, and to me I'm only in full blown handicapper mode between May-October, is just about getting my handicapping techniques engaged and working again after a handicappers holiday that I take every winter to refresh my mind and love of the game.  I've blogged three times in 2019 and given you three winners cold and some good exactas to boot.  Am I bragging?  Not at all, just pointing out that I honed in on the things that I do best, namely handicapping turf races, one mile and up, over firm turf primarily, and that I'm really confident in my abilities to size up the field (handicapping) and generate positive ROI consistently (bet construction).  It's not bragging, I'm actually humble, humbled by years of highs and lows.  Yesterday's exacta and trifecta win on the Sand Springs Stakes was because I ignored the mantra of Han Solo.  I noticed my second choice, Proctor's Ledge bet down to 1-1 odds, a mare with one win at the distance should not be bet down to 50-50 odds without at least challenging the possibility, which is what I did to my benefit.

Handicap Pre Race




And my pre-race thinking was:

$2 Trifecta  with 9-5 OVER 9-5 OVER 6-8-4-2  is worth $16 while a lean mean $2 Tri with 9 OVER 5 OVER 6-8-4-2 is $8.

You'll notice I put Fire Key #2 over Vendita #1 in my bet construction, which was just an educated hunch. 

I was leaning pre-race to single Proctor's Ledge if the post time odds mirrored the morning line odds, 4-1.  When they didn't, without a shred of emotion went with my original thought and put Valedictorian on top for an easy $9.50 exacta on a $2 bet.

I plunked down $6 to win $23.90 Trifecta betting 5-9 OVER 6-8-4  

Smartest guy in the room?  Far from it.  Consistent handicapping and not over thinking the bet construction, relying on the work I've done and using the tote board eyes to make sure I don't overlook value.  

Have fun with it friends!  Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The $100,000 Sand Springs Stakes at Gulfstream

Gulfstream Park: Photo Mason Kelley

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 11th season of providing questionable handicapping and atrocious bet construction to people who never asked for it.  Actually, the handicapping and bet construction is not too shabby, and I focus on what I do well, and more importantly enjoy more, and that's older horses running over grass.  Everyone is about to be sucked into Kentucky Derby fever, and that's very cool, but 2 and 3 YO horses have never been my strong suit and I'll leave that sort of thing to people who are better at it and care more about it than I do.  At Gulfstream today, Florida Derby fever is kicking in with Race 14 going off at 6:36 ET, but for me, I'm "practicing" today on Race 10 about two hours earlier, Sand Springs $100K for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and Up, one mile with the temp rail set at zero (alternates 0 to 60 feet).

Why do I practice?  Why does anyone practice anything, to improve and get better at a skill, and my craft is handicapping and bet construction.  I've been handicapping for 33 years, which alone is hard to believe, but true.  I still learn and my skills need need sharpening.  I often will handicap a dozen races and build bets, and not bet them, just for a mental exercise, just for practice.  I think all of us have some mental exercise we perform to stay sharp.  I work very long hours and I travel a lot for my job.  An hour or so here and there handicapping is the perfect mind relaxer that makes me better at my job as well.

For a turf guy, you don't have a lot of great options early in the calendar year.  I should have played Santa Anita which has some graded stakes over grass today, or even Japan, but the handicapper in me likes predicable situations with few variables and quite frankly I don't want any part of the craziness at Santa Anita until that situation calms down some.  I very much hope it does, horse racing can't afford to lose Hollywood Park and Santa Anita in Southern California.

Lets get after this handicap!




The Track was listed as Good as of March 29, you'll find an update to track conditions as well as scratches and changes here.  The #3 filly, Mrs. Ramona G is unfortunately scratched.  The weather looks like it should be dry up to and after post time.


The race looks chalky to me.  Carrying the most weight at 124 pounds is Trainer Breen's Valedictorian.  Two straight strong GP performances, 7 of 10 in the money over GP grass, a class drop for the Mare  who has a big early Timeform and will look to wire the field.  She should break and be at the front with Too Charming and Andina Del Sur through 4f.

Proctor's Ledge intrigues me here.  A grade 1/2 contender, the Mare is making first 2019 start, a layoff of 61-180 days that Trainer Walsh wins 15% of the time in 60 tries over past year.  An excellent :46 3/5ths 4f work 2 weeks ago makes me think she's ready.  4 pounds less than Valedictorian, she should be just off the pace and we'll have to consider if the speed that is in front will crack.  I'd like it better if turf was a bit softer but I'm not discounting. 

Too Charming and Andina Del Sur are more or less similar horses, both going for Trainer Albertrani.  Both will come out fast.  Both lack high end speed that carries.  Both have excellent pilots.  both in the mix for Place-Show-4th.

Best of the rest is Quebec.  A morning line 3-1, with Ortiz Jr Up for Trainer Robert "Bobby" Dibona who is looking for first stakes win and has two Grade 3 wins over a long time training.  I don't see it but at 118 pounds the horse has run well, has 90+ Beyers  and decent early speed that carries late. 

I'm keeping the betting simple:

$2 Trifecta  with 9-5 OVER 9-5 OVER 6-8-4-2  is worth $16 while a lean mean $2 Tri with 9 OVER 5 OVER 6-8-4-2 is $8.


Have fun with it friends!  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Hillsborough G2 at Tampa Bay Downs

Hawksmoor (Ire)  Photo by SV Photography 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 11th year of handicapping and bet  construction for people who never asked for it.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today about the Grade 2 Hillsborough, a route of grass for four year old and up Fillies and Mares at Tampa Bay Downs.

It's important to bring consistency to your handicapping methods if you want to achieve consistent results.  I like to start any handicap by checking the weather and the expected track conditions prior to starting to analyze the field.  The weather has been wet and the races were off the track on Wednesday but things look dry since Thursday and you can check here for track conditions but I'm going to assume if its not firm its close to firm.

Lets get after the review of this field.



Sometimes its hard to find good video at Youtube for these sort of runners. That's not an offense to Grade 3 Filly and Mare runners, its just a reality that fewer and fewer of us care enough to record and post.  You can find very good video at a site like Twinspires and their Twinspires TV.  When video is lacking, and even when it's not, reviewing race charts to supplement the Past Performances is always a useful endevour. Speaking of endevours, the  Grade 3 Endevour at Tampa Bay Downs contested  at 1/16 of a mile less grass and "kinda firm" like I expect Saturday will be is a good place to start.  Exiting that race from 9 February are Hawksmoor who won by rating, a new trick for an old girl, Viva Vegas, Streetwithnoname, Get Explicit and Goodyearforroses (Ire), while the other key race to study is the Grade 3 Suwannee River from GP on 9 February as well in which my chalk Rymska (Fr) came up Place but short as the heavily bet favorite that day and Peach of a Gal over performed it's much bigger price to get up for Show.

I like to use DRF PDF Race Charts.  For the older races, just select the track you want and manipulate the web address to get to the date you want.

Just change that date at the end to 20190209 and hit enter and away you go.



TAM 9 February Race 10:  1 1/16 Firm Turf; G3 Endevour F and M 4 YO and Up

The interesting thing about this race is clearly at 6 YO and racing for the last time before breeding to Kitten's Joy, Hawksmoor rated and rallied off a fast pace of :23, 47 1/5, 1:11....

I like Viva Vegas exiting as well and late turns of foot by Goodyearfortheroses (Fr) and Streetwithnoname shouldn't be ignored.

GP 9 February 2019 Race 6:  1 1/8 Firm Turf;  G3 Suwannee River F and M  4 YO and Up.

This is a second off a 45-180 day layoff for Rymska (Fr) who failed as the heavily bet favorite to win in first start since 2 December.   Trainer Chad Brown's stats are hard to put in perspective because they are so gaudy, but he's 26% winner off these layoffs, a 29% Turf winner, a 29% route winner and 23% Graded Stakes Winner.  No one else is close in this field with those figures.  4 YO Peach of a Gal set high career Beyer in that race which maybe signals a step forward but I need to see a bit more from the daughter of Curlin trained by Graham Motion.  

The pace scenario is a bit of a mystery to me.  The early speed is Hawksmoor, with a Timeform early 112 and no one else is greater than 80.  I'm guessing that the rating shown in the last race is abandoned and she is sent to the front.  The extra distance is not something she has done well with, a lifetime winless in 4 tries with 2 show finishes.  I think Conditioner Delacour sends her to the front and plays catch me if you can.  Perhaps that's suicide because there is alot of late speed here.  So maybe his instructions are to Bravo to rate and stay close Rymska (Fr), but is that a good plan either?

My handicap assumes the latter, that she reverts back to what she's done for 23 starts in which she has 10 Place and Show finishes to go with her 6 wins (1 win in last 7) and that is to go to the front and carry for as long as possible.   I think she does get caught and I can see any of the 7-3-8 catching her and even possibly 10-9.

I'm building exactas without her in them and that's how I'm approaching, with something like this:

$2 Exacta:  7-3-8-10-9 box for $10.  I'm not sure I don't even go more narrow and bet $2 7 over 8-10 for $4 and call it a day.  I'll be watching the toteboard and the willpay and I will unemotionally bet this one for low risk, ok reward.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!