Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 6, 2010; Aqueduct Toboggan and Gotham and Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap

The Turk uses a curious photo to kick off his Post Race Analysis today: Pictured to the left is a shot I took of Rail Trip nipping Dakota Phone at the wire in last year's Santana Mile at Santa Anita. Dakota Phone is a curious horse: 11 Place or Shows in 23 starts with 4 wins. On that particular day at the Santana Mile he closed furiously in the stretch and almost upset the unbeaten Rail Trip. He hasn't won in his last 10 starts but he's always around the action, finishing only a head behind the underrated Richard's Kid not even a month ago. He doesn't get much respect at the betting window, but I'm not the betting window. I know Dakota Phone likes to be near the action and this was a key in a very lucrative day for the Turk yesterday. Let's get after it!

The action began at Aqueduct with Races 4 - 5 - 6 and then 10 as well as Santa Anita Race 10


The day started off well in Race 4 at Aqueduct, a five horse edition of the Toboggan. My pre race analysis was pretty much dead on although I anticipated Custom for Carlos would be the bettors favorite choice but the savvy group that plays Aqueduct rarely miss a beat and rightly put Wall Street Wonder on the top of the tote board. An easy Tri and Exacta win came out of this race and I was alive in the Pick Three.

Did I say I was alive in the Pick Three? It didn't last long. Race 5 had my last toss out Goldsville winning and when I went back to the PP's I realized I dropped him for being a synthetic horse even though he had some dirt wins. No matter, I was dead and would have been deader in Race 6 as my first toss Spa City Baby won as a big longshot.

My Gotham handicap was pretty much junk too. I liked Wow Wow Wow but I knew breaking from the far outside meant expending alot of energy early. He did, took the lead and then got dropped like a stone. I always was surprised by Awesome Act being so highly regarded by the bettor's as about the only thing I liked was Leparoux up. As a handicapper, I study the carnage and then let it go.

After eating dinner I turned my attention to the race I was thinking about all day, the 14 horse Santa Anita Handicap with no clear favorite. To me that means big payouts. I've put together below the anatomy of how the winning bet was constructed. Betting is always a secondary thing for me. I build a base handicap which I list Pre Race and I assign arbitrary grades to each horse. I toss a certain portion of each field (In Red) and I try to build stratification layers of quality within the field. Generally the horses could care less and one RED Horse will inevitably break through and screw up the handicap, but if you are consistent and apply the principals week after week as your handicapping improves so will your bet construction. The two are symbiotic.

Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap



That is the type of bet construction I can only do in the peace and quiet of my own home or office and could never do at a track. I need solitude, I need my PP's and my google docs, and I need my handicapper's notes to remind me that I like Dakota Phone, that Neko Bay is never respected, that betting for the first filly in 73 years isn't a great bet and that I should build a handicap that could survive watching my first and third choices finish out of the money.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 6, 2010; Aqueduct Pick Three w/ The Toboggan as well as The Gotham

The early part of today has the Turk's mind thinking about Aqueduct. Past winters I have played the track regularly but for whatever reason this year I haven't been as compelled by the runners there. That's starting to change as I'm thinking of altering my New Year's Resolution to go to the Arkansas Derby and instead travel down to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial. As much as I looked forward to Oaklawn, the idea of going there during what most likely will be a weekend of high scalper tickets and Rachel/Zenyatta madness makes the idea less appealing. Today's foray into Aqueduct starts with an early Pick Three that's kicked off by the Grade III Toboggan and then The Grade III Gotham later in the afternoon. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct Race 4-5-6-10



A smallish field of five contests today's Grade III Toboggan. I'm generally a quality over quantity fella, and I like the quality very much but would have preferred a bit more quantity. Handicapper's have a choice to just not bet, but I'm game for the Pick Three.

Trainer Terranova brings Wall Street Wonder into the race coming off a gaudy 109 BSF on the inner course in late January. 2 for 2 at the Big A, 2 of 3 on Fast Dirt and 8 of 12 lifetime in the money for the 4 YO son of City Place. Trainer Terranova and Jock Hill combine for 40% winners and Terranova is 24% off 31-60 Day layoffs. I like the inner course record and my only concern is how he came out of last race, but I'll roll the dice.

Turk favorite Custom for Carlos, winner of the Grade III Mr. Prospector at GP ships in for Trainer Kenneally for his first Aqueduct start. 5 of 5 in the money at the distance 6 of 6 in the money lifetime on fast dirt. Lifetime best BSF for the race and 10 straight 90+ BSF's. The son of More then Ready is more then capable of winning and has J. Leparoux up.

Another 2 for 2 winner at Aqueduct is Elusive Warning running for Trainer Mclaughlin with the Mig up. Only 9th start for the 6 YO son of Elusive Quality with a stint overseas for the Darley owned horse.

Driven by Success starts for new trainer, T. Pletcher today, something Pletcher wins 12% of the time. 2 wins in last 11 for the 5 YO gelding. Capable of big efforts.

For the Pick Three I'm leaning towards a 3 X 3 X 2 for an $18 dollar bet. In Race 5, a 1 Mile 70 yard OC 50K/N2X affair, I like Sawtooth Mountain, blinkers on for trainer DeRosa. 16th career start for the 4 YO son of Johannesburg who has 2 wins at Aqueduct under his girth.My only other non tosses are The Roundhouse and Half Metal Jacket.

In Race 6, a Maiden Special Weight 49K for F&M 3 YO and up foaled in NYS, if I'm still alive and I don't have a good feeling about that, I'll be looking for either Lindsay's Point or All Sew Smooth.

The Turk will say again, it's tempting to add just one more horse but don't do it! These Pick Three's that I've been winning regularly aren't great payouts when likely horses win so unless you are wildly contrarian in two legs of the Pick Three, don't waste your money. I like them for fun but keep it real and never bet more then you are prepared to lose.

Later in the day, the Grade III Gotham goes off with Wood Memorial hopefuls and seven Triple Crown nominees. The Turk is leaning towards Wow Wow Wow, the Lukas trainee son of Broken Vow from breeder Marylou Whitney Stables. Coming off a win at 1 1/16 at Oaklawn Park and with OP jockey ship in Nakatani up, and Lukas/Nakatani chemistry is rising with a 31% win rate.

After staring at the PP's for a bit of time, I'm going out there with a Stephen Got Even son, I've Got The Fever on my board to place. Comes in off a nice effort in late February at 1 mile at Aqueduct. He ran a sharp final quarter his last time out and Trainer Terranova places Hill up for his third mount in a row on this IEAH runner.

Yawanna Twist is an R. Duttrow trainee stepping up several furlongs in distance but is 2 for 2 at Aqueduct and looks to keep record perfect. It's asking alot so I'll be hedging down more then hedging up.

Peppi Knows is a winner at the Big A at 1 1/16 miles but hasn't got much respect off a pretty slow Whirlaway win. Three Day Rush is a Pletcher trainee that has to show something today after a poor effort in that same Whirlaway.