The Nomination Is In: The Met Mile for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner

Welcome to the 2012 Metropolitan Handicap, better known as the Met Mile. Before I go to far, I'd like to thank The Thorofan for inviting the Ol' Turk to handicap for the esteemed Handicappers Corner.

For those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, I gravitated to them because their stated goals appealed to me:

Retain and enrich existing fans.

Seek out and attract new fans including those who are unable for physical or other limitations have not yet had the opportunity.

Give each fan, regardless of involvement, a voice to the industry regarding their interests in the betterment of the sport.

Hard to argue with that, and I am happy to promote an organization that I am a proud member of.

The Met Mile is part of my Memorial Day tradition. I honor our American War dead in the morning, gather with family in the afternoon, and we make this race part of the late afternoon activities. As a horse racing fan, and a person trying to promote the sport, I always try to make the races part of our family traditions, showing my love for the sport to the nieces, nephews, friends and future thorofans.

So with that build up, I'll be honest, seeing a six horse field doesn't thrill me. Superfecta is out, and if there is a scratch, ugh, it will be something similar to the Winchester, embedded below. As a horse racing fan I'll enjoy seeing some of my favorite horses contest this prestigious race, but as a bettor, I'd generally pass on a six horse field.

With a favorite that will be less than 2-1 and perhaps a post time chalk at 8-5, what do we do with this, how do we plan? Looking at the wager menu, Exacta, Trifecta and the Double are the bets de jour, and I think I'll target a value exacta. A value exacta Turk? Yes, we are going to toss the presumptive chalk and piece together no more than 4 combinations, or $8 worth of $2 exactas on the hunt for a will pay that at least doubles our investment or a bet that pays out greater than $16.

My initial read of the six horse field is that the quality of horses and the competitiveness of this race is high, with 5 of 6 runners currently millionaires. You know, many eleven horse fields have the same or fewer quality runners as this group, but it's those five other horses that help to keep the prices slightly more attractive. Nothing like a Duke of Mischief, a Mucho Macho Man or a Wilburn to drive an 8-5 back to 3-1.

I find it helpful to assess current form first. To do that I like to visual handicap, a combination of trip handicapping and visual appearance of the horses, especially in the last 1/8 of a mile and the gallop out. You Tube is a great resource for this sort of thing, even if sometimes you may have to hunt an peck a bit to find what you are looking for. I've gathered some of the key races that I think will help me decoded today's field.

2012 Affirmed Success Stakes Restricted NY STATE 7f


2012 Carter Handicap 7f


2012 Churchill Downs 7f



2012 Winchester 1 Mile



2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile






There are a few things not to like about the 2011 Preakness Stakes Winner, Shackleford; Romans and Velazquez are winless together over past year, Velazquez is up in place of regular pilot Castanon, Velazquez is only a 7% winner at Belmont right now. Continuing to pile on, the horse is winless at the distance, winless at Belmont, and has only one win, his last in the Churchill Downs since the Preakness. All that said, I don't believe he'll be the bettors chalk and I'm installing him as my chalk and my single in the great exacta value hunt. I got the negatives out of the way, on the positives side of the ledger, a gutty stretch run in his last race and a decent enough effort in the Carter Handicap.

I am a big Jackson Bend fan; 19 of 25 in the money, 6 of last 7 races in triple digit Beyers. The 5 YO son of Hear No Evil has only one win in five tries at the distance, winless in two starts at Belmont, 18 of 22 in the money on fast dirt.

I expect the bettor's will reward Caleb's Posse with the chalk; Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile reigning champ, 2011 King's Bishop winner, with last two races lost by a combined neck and nose. Trainer Von Hemel, with Maragh up, combine for 43% winners. Trainer Von Hemel has a 31% win rate in graded stakes. I think the race sets up perfect for him, as he'll be off the lead and will have at least three targets to shoot for. I suspect he'll be wide out of the turn and he'll make his run there.

In the "one of these things is not like the other" category, Saginaw makes a big class jump up to enter this race. Trainer David Jacobson felt pretty good about his chances and runs him back on eleven days rest after winning the NY State restricted Affirmed Success Stakes. The six year old gelding has three wins at Belmont and is 12 of 13 in the money at the distance and 11 of 15 in the money on fast dirt.

It doesn't seem possible that Caixa Eletronica is seven years old, but he is, and he makes a whopping 53 start in this race and is 35 of 52 in the money, with 7 wins in his last 16 starts. A winner off the pace in the Charles Town Classic last time out, his best efforts come right off the pace, but it will be an almost career best for him to strike a win against this group and even Place seems unlikely. I think I found my value, now he has to do the work.

Trainer Mott's To Honor and Serve is a fine horse, winner of the Winchester last time out. He's 2 of 2 at Belmont and 3 of 3 at one mile and 10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt. All that said, I'm lukewarm on him. Mott and Lezcano do win 32% of the time together at Belmont.

There is quite a bit to like about To Honor and Serve and I wouldn't be surprised if he won this race. I'm more impressed by the quality of the field now since I went a bit deeper on the analysis, but you can't cover everybody.

Today's handicapping and betting exercise is really more about the bet construction than the handicap. I made a decision early on to bet Exacta and I made a decision to slot the bettors chalk no higher than Place. I'll bet no more than $6 to $8 dollars making straight Exacta Bets that single my chalk, Shackleford, and then cover everyone with the current exception of To Honor and Serve. Does that mean I like Saginaw more than To Honor and Serve? No, but this isn't a popularity contest, we are betting real money and I'm willing to risk $8 to make $16 or more and Saginaw represents that chance more than To Honor and Serve. Maybe the better argument is should I cover To Honor and Serve to Place and drop Caleb's Posse, especially if 8-5, and the answer is maybe.

You can't cover everyone friends; It's not good money management to lose bets, we can all agree on that, but its also not good money management to risk alot of capital on a small return, made smaller because you threw in an extra horse. If you have to do that, take more time becoming a better handicapper and save your capital for when you are ready.

I know it's a smallish field, made possibly smaller if Saginaw runs on the 27th as is possible, so gather your family around the TV at race time and try and make the race, perhaps not this particular edition of the race, a real family tradition like I have in mine. That's the true spirit of The Thorofan, bringing fans back.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 3 September 2011: The All Graded Stakes Pick 3 at Saratoga

Do you remember where you were on August 22, 2006? When the news of Horse of the Year Saint Liam dying in a paddock accident broke I was in an airport flying West on business. I couldn't shake from my mind the fuchsia and teal silks, Jerry Bailey up. There is a sadness that comes with this sport you just have to accept. Rest in Peace Saint Liam. Thanks to Tiznow Tim for use of the photo.

Havre de Grace, the four year old daughter of Saint Liam , made it look too easy yesterday. It was a confident run against a good field and she had more in the tank at the end than anyone else. It reaffirmed by feeling that our American fillies and mares are the best runners we have, the most exciting, and right now, the most gutty. It makes me appreciate Blind Luck a whole lot too as she wins yesterday if she was the won entered.

let's get after it!





Yesterday was a thrilling day as a horse fan, the type of day that doesn't come along very often. I was happy for Larry Jones and Fox Hill Farms, a team that gave me one of my happiest Saratoga memories in the past decade, Hard Spun's Kings Bishop win.

I whiffed on the Pick Three; I didn't want to believe a horse that was claimed in June for $75,000 could win back to back Grade 1 wins but that's exactly what Ask the Moon did winning the Personal Ensign after taking the Ruffian Handicap. Ask the Moon, whose name is now associated forever with Ruffian and Personal Ensign. That would make a good movie script!

The Forego made me sad for Sidney's Candy. Previously trained by John Sadler before being sold to WinStar, the four year old Candy Ride is a turf runner but with Trainer Pletcher at the helm he was switched to the dirt here. i don't mind seeing a horse given an opportunity to take down $750,000, but I wasn't thrilled with how Quality Road's career was managed and I don't see a real campaign being charted for Sidney's Candy either. I respected Sidney's Candy enough to cover him but I wasn't shocked at the dull effort and i was shocked that he was the chalk. I hit the Superfecta and I almost didn't without my late insertion of Aikenite into both Show and 4th. He was really closing at the end.

The betting public had The Woodward cold. The order of finish by ranking on the toteboard? 1,2,3,5,4,6,7,8. I hit a $125 Superfecta on a $54 dollar ticket. Pedestrian, not sexy, but cash is cash. The day I start getting disappointed that I only netted $470 for 3 hours work is the day I'll toss my red gel pens in the river.

With Saratoga and Del Mar ending many casual horse racing fans turn their attention to the NFL, baseball playoffs, college football, etc. I'd urge the new readers I've picked up here at the Turk over the past two months to give the sport a chance to keep you hooked. The Stakes Schedule is full of great races and betting opportunities. Even if you only focus on Saturday racing, which most of the time its all the Turk has time for anyhow, you can continue your handicapping skills and stay engaged with the game. I'm expecting Breeders' Cup 2011 to offer some incredible betting opportunities. Stay sharp friends.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 15, 2010; The Grade II Dixie and Grade I Preakness Stakes; Race 11/12 Daily Double

I love to remember Champions in their radiant glory and none to me are more glorious then Barbaro walking into Pimlico a day before his tragic final race. I try not to think about the big fella and what could have been but I found myself today with that horrible feeling from 2006 when I handicapped the Grade II Dixie as part of the Daily Double with The Preakness Stakes and came to the running lines for Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother. I've not handicapped any of Barbaro's brothers yet and I had to stop after reading his PP and just reflect back on how great the son of Dynaformer was. Let's not forget any of our runners, be it Barbaro or the cheapest claimer, and if you find The Turk enjoyable to read, please donate to a horse charity, one like Remember Me Rescue, with their easy to use widget on the right side of my blog. Thanks to Terence Dulay for the use of mighty Barbaro's picture. Let's get after it!

Pimlico Race 11 and Race 12: The Grade II Dixie and the Grade I Preakness Stakes



The Grade II Dixie goes to post at 5:12 Eastern, a full hour before the Preakness, so get your bets in.

The weather appears to be fine, the turf appears firm and there was only one scratch at the time of this writing, but get your information ready before finalizing your handicap.

Trainer Sheppard brings Just As Well in for his second off a long layoff, something the trainer does well with just 11% of the time. The 7YO does a Turf from Synthetic switch which Sheppard wins 22% of the time with. The trainer's graded stakes win rate of 27% and his 24% win rate with Leparoux, coupled with the Just As Well's 10 of 16 in the money on turf and 13 of 22 lifetime in the money makes him formidable. Don't like as a win bet with a suspected low price but will be part of my superfecta and trifectas.

5 YO gelding Picou comes in off the race of his career, a 103 BSF win at 1 1/8 on firm turf in early April. Trainer Brown puts E. Trujillo up, and the two combine for 44% wins on 16 starts and Brown clips away at 21% on turf and 33% in graded stakes. Expect a late turn of foot.

Rahystarda has been on my radar since beating Turk favorite Rahy's Attorney in the Grade III River City Handicap last year. 9 wins on 21 turf starts and 2 wins at the distance.

The group of Nicanor, Wesley and Grassy will round out my Show and 4th spots on the exotics.

In the main event, I like the middle of the starting gate to all show for themselves well. I'm tepidly backing Jackson Bend for his guts, Looking at Lucky for his pure natural potential and Super Saver for the respect the Derby winner deserves.

The second tier to me includes Dublin, Paddy O' Prado and Caracortado.

I like Jackson Bend on fast dirt where he is a perfect 9 for 9 in the money. A 4 furlong :46 3/5ths bullet earlier this week is a big fat wow. Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith gets the mount for the second time.

2 YO champ Looking at Lucky has had some bad trips and gets Martin Garcia up today for Trainer Baffert. His best race of the year was on fast dirt and if Garcia can wait on him a bit he should be right there.

Super Saver ran an impressive 98 BSF and lost by a neck in Arkansas Derby. Nothing to dislike about the Kentucky Derby winner except the price. He'll be apart of all tickets.

I like the hard knockin' Dublin to find the exotic ticket. Making his 5th start of 2010 and his 8th dirt start.

Have fun with these. The Turk is about to get his "preak on" with a Camacho Room 101, his current stick of choice.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 3, 2010; Aqueduct Pick 4 on Wood Memorial/Carter Handicap Day

That fine looking runner to your left is a Turk favorite, Musket Man, one of several Turk Family clan favorites running in big field of stakes races at the Big A. Thanks to Wendy for the use of the nice picture.

My immediate feeling earlier in the week was that I wanted to handicap the Pick 4 at Aqueduct and possibly Santa Anita this weekend as my featured handicaps for this humble blog. After a few hours of handicapping, you could say I have buyers remorse. Why? Small fields are not your friend. I like the runners in these four races but it's hard to find value with six horse fields and. There is no true heavy chalk nor are there many flat out tosses. While I like the challenge and the Suduko-esque nature of a Pick 4, I'll be watching the scratches closely and making a call before the Pick 4 goes off if I want in or not. If I am in, I'm going to keep the risk minimal and try to bring the bet in around $36 dollars. Without superfectas, I'll bet the individual races and be a bit defensive with the goal of breaking even at worst or turning a better then 50% ROI at best. That's my strategy at 9:30 ET, we'll see as my third cup of coffee kicks in where I flop out later. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct: Race 7 - Race 8 - Race 9 - Race 10


Race 7 is a 7 furlong sprint and it marks the return of Eightyfiveinafifty, back from a vacation in the Aqueduct parking lot his last time out. Trainer Contessa gives the mount to R. Dominguez, a combo that wins 22% of the time at the Big A. Owns a race best 105 BSF and has been training sharply. Originally scheduled to be coupled with another Contessa trainee, Castaneda, that fine son of Yonaguska won yesterday's 8th race at Aqueduct. Eightyfiveinafifty has alot to prove today and this is far from settled. The Turk may hunt for a deeper selection here before I place the Pick 4 and maybe we watch the tote board and bet one of the two possible contenders, Raynick's Jet or Hurricane Ike.

Raynick's Jet breaks from post 2 for Trainer S. Asmussen, with Cohen up, a combo that is working for the 10th time together but clips along at 44%. Comes in off a 6f inner track N1X Win in early March where he added 18 BSF points to his previous lifetime best. Hurricane Ike goes on dirt for the first time for trainer Sadler who has a pathetic 16 Dirt races and 6% win rate over past year. You have to ask yourself then, why here? Training sharply, a :45 3/5's 4f work in late March. I think that's as deep as I'll go here.

Race 8 is the 1 1/8 mile Excelsior Grade III with a six horse field. While not big on quantity, the quality is excellent with at least four horses having legitimate chances to win, Nite Light, Goldsville, More Than a Reason and National Pride.

I'm backing Nite Light, the 6 YO Edward Evans/T.Pletcher/J. Velazquez combo. Pletcher and Velazquez clip along at a gaudy 32% at the Big A and 22% over 400 races in the past year. Only 1 win in the last 9 starts, 4 of 4 at the distance and 11 of 13 on fast dirt and 15 of 19 in the money lifetime with a last race98 BSF where he finished for Show to Place horse National Pride in The Stymie.

National Pride a Darley trained by McLaughlin turned a :47 3/5ths 4 f burner at the Belmont training track last week. 1 win in last 7 starts, 4 of 10 on Fast Dirt, winless at the distance and a last race best 99 BSF. Migliore up, 2 wins at the Big A, most in the field.

Goldsville goes for the second time since switching to Trainer Hushion. the 5 YO is 3 of 19 lifetime, 1 win in last 8, 3 wins in 8 Fast dirt starts, unraced at this distance and winless in 3 tries at Aqueduct. A nice inner track win in early March put him in position for today. Trainer Hushion,with Dominguez up win 63% of the time as they go for race 25 together at the Big A and 56% of the time over past year in their 40th start together. Trainer Hushion wins 32% of his routes and 30% of his 2nd off 45-180 day layofffs and 26% of his Won Last Starts. Watch the tote on him. More Than a Reason is a 5 YO son of More Than Ready and is starting his 48th race. Wow! 27 of 47 in the money lifetime, 4 wins in last 29 starts, 4 wins in 29 starts on Dirt and a whopping 6 off track wins. Capable, most likely will fall to 8-1 or higher.

Another six horse field greets you in the Wood Memorial. The romping Fountain of Youth Grade II winner Eskendereya tries to extend his dirt winning streak to 3 straight. An impressive 106 BSF from last race, has been training progressively faster at 5f as he prepared for this.the son of Giant's Causeway has won at 1 1/8 miles and is a potential single for me as I try to keep the bet reasonable in the Pick 4. He'll most likely press the pace himself and sitting off his flanks should be Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams and Awesome Act as this is a four horse race.

Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams represent the best chance to upset Eskendereya late. It's not that I don't respect what Awesome Act did in the Gotham, and I respect Leparoux, but I'm being decisive and we'll see how it works out. Jackson Bend doesn't hold up well on the PP's, looking a cut below, but I like the guts and an interesting jock switch to C. Borel signals what Trainer Zito is looking for. 8 of 8 in the money. Schoolyard Dreams has been impressive at Tampa Bay Downs this winter for Trainer D. Ryan. a :46 4/5ths 4f rocket a week ago is an eye opener. This will be a fun race to bet and I'll be looking for the value horses, especially Schoolyard Dreams at 4-1 or higher to provide a hedge against the risk overall on this card. Little Turk refuses to discount the Gotham and backs Awesome Act while Mrs Turk goes value shopping and bets Most Happy Fella.

And then Race 10 is the Carter Handicap. Turk favorites Munnings and Musket Man square off here in a five horse/six total with a couple field. I like the guts and grit of Musket Man. I'm not sure if this is a race he should be in, but it appears Ryan is taking his 4 YO star slowly back from the bone bruise that ended his magnificent 3 YO season. He'll be up against a serious speedball in Pletcher's Munnings. Musket Man, son of Yonguska is 2 for 2 at this distance and himself put up a :46 4/5th rocket for Ryan as well last week. Munnings, the son of Speightstown from Dam La Comete was bred for greatness, and he shows flashes.

Warrior's Reward has 3 wins in last 11 starts, 7 of 8 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 at the distance and has been training sharply for Trainer Wilkes.
the 4 YO son of Medaglia d'Oro strung together a nice late summer campaign last year and enters off nice N2X with Leparoux up.

It's still early in the day. My handicaps are complete but before I place my bets I'm going to walk the dog, have a cigar, and clear my thoughts. It should be a fun day. I hope you have fun too this Easter Weekend, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day February 20, 2010; The Fountain of Youth and P3 Plus Risen Star and Southwest Stakes

That handsome gentleman to the left, Mr. Red Auerbach, I didn't personally know. What I do know is the look of satisfaction with his cigar and the quiet reflection that comes when smoking one either in solitude or in the company of good men. The Turk had a major win today at the Fountain of Youth and he celebrated with a Rockey Patel Vintage 1999 Churchill. A very good cigar indeed and a handicap and constructed bet I'm quite estatic about.

Readers of the Turk know that he doesn't gloat and holds dear a handicappers creed that reminds him to stay grounded because for every good handicap there are several bad ones.

Without gloating I can say that today's win was about building a good base handicap, taking a stand on a horse to hit the top four that the betting public hated, and taking the time to construct a matrix of superfecta bets instead of relying on expensive boxed bets or 10 cent versions that return only 10% of the joy a person could receive.

Let's go!

Gulfsteam Park Race 8 - Race 9- Race 10

Fair Grounds Race 10

Oaklawn Park Race 10





The Gulfstream Park Pick 3 was an All Stakes Pick Three that ended up being won by two chalks and a bettor's third choice. The payout was pretty pathetic and clearly not worth the risk, but it's always better to win then loose and I strung together a winning pick three.

As I said pre race, I decided to bet the individual races as exactas. The D'funnybone/A Little Warm combo got the day started off on the right foot.

My Race 9 gamble on Rahy's Attorney did not pay off and I was left empty handed on the exacta but was still alive in the Pick 3 with the win by Courageous Cat.

Race 10, the Fountain of Youth, is where I did my good work today. It starts for me with the base handicap, devoid of as much pre race hype as possible. It's not easy to avoid hype of these Derby Trail contenders. This is the time of the year where 20 or so horses are treated/viewed as the next big thing. Some of the horses that lost today are very good runners, and the trainers know that the Derby is won in May and not in February, but being flat is being flat, and after each one of these prep races some stars will rise and some stars will fall. Buddy Saint's star fell and Eskendereya and Jackson Bend's stars rose or stayed high.

The bet was a matrix variety. It's the sort of bet I can construct in the quiet of my den but I could never pull off at the track. I took a stong opinion on the race; I thought that Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend would both be either 1st or 2nd, I thought Aikenite could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th, I then placed Pleasant Prince in the 3rd and 4th spots and I settled on Eskendereya in all four spots. If Buddy's Saint finishes in the top two I'm writing about a nice $100 dollar superfecta and instead I'm writing about a $1400 dollar winner because I looked at the PPs and took a contrarian view on Pleasant Prince; A Wesley Ward trainee who had a nice progression of Beyers's, especially a last race 1 1/8 Mile 88 BSF and then three straight 5 furlong works over a 14 day period culminating in a handride at 1:00 1/5 seconds. I liked Ward's 21% off 31 day layoffs and 31% dirt score. Curent form, current form, current form! Buddy's Saint hasn't raced since November and his work isn't that impressive. Hype? Maybe, I think he's a quality colt and we'll see what he does when he runs back.

I was too giddy to do anymore serious betting and I had a Risen Star handicap that was a complete disaster and a Southwest Stakes handicap that was pretty good with the exception of Dryfly who just didn't feeling like driving for home when he should have been driving for home. Falling star, check.

Thanks to Mr. Tony Bada Bing for pointing out to the Turk the image I had choosen was Mr. Red Auerbach, it didn't occur to this old Celtics fan so shame on me.

Good Stuff! Turk Out.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day January 23, 2010; The Holy Bull Stakes and the Late Pick Three at Gulfstream Park

The winner of today's Holy Bull Stakes is the fine looking son of Unbridled's Song, Winslow Homer. The Turk was lucky today, inserting Winslow Homer in the Late Pick Three and also betting him to Win, and lucky in the fact that he wasn't the horse I expected to win or place, but I guess that's why they race 'em. Let's get after it!

Gulfstream Park Race 7 - Race 8 - Race 9 The Holy Bull Stakes Grade III



Race 7 was the start of the late Pick Three. I was committed to spending no more then $18 on the bet and I was committed to some combination of 3 X 3 X 2. The opening leg, a MSW 45K concerned me as so few of these horses had ever raced before. With no regard for the tote board or the morning line I whittled the starters down to three horses, with what I thought would be the winner, Bushwhacked/6 and I played Mine N Gems/4 and Six Clicks/5 as well and Mine N Gems, the bettor's choice and the morning line second choice, won by 3/4 of a length and Bushwacked missed Place by a nose.

Race 8 came and I was still alive. Pre Race I intended to put three horses into the mix but I inserted a third horse into Race 9 and I had to subtract somebody. I went with Musical Romance/9 and Take a Vow/3 and I late tossed Miss Olivia Rae/7. Musical Romance won by 1/2 a length and Miss Olivia Rae took show by a neck with Take a Vow never entering the fray. No matter, I was alive after two and I survived the 2 horse leg of the journey.

Before the Holy Bull, I still was unsettled by the fine field and the number of horses in my A and B group that I thought were capable of winning. I made a decision to bet the Superfecta using my base handicap which didn't work out because of the failure of Aikenite to deliver a top four finish. It happens. I did look at the tote board before the race and place three $4 dollar win bets, with one of them being Homer Winslow who I thought would go off at a slightly higher price then he did, but I figured if one of them hit the win the bet would be no worse then a push. It was a bit better then a push. The best move I made was inserting Winslow Homer into the Pick Three. I was torn between William's Kitten and Homer Winslow, who I rated both equally pre race. I went with the gut and took the Unbridled's Song and it paid off to the tune of $128.

Good stuff for a Saturday. Congrats to both Friesen Fire and General Quarters, both looked very good in the LA Handicap.

Have Fun, Turk Out! Next week we'll be back for the Sunshine Millions. Yeah!

The Nomination Is In: January 23, 2010 Gulfstream Park; The Holy Bull Grade III and the Late Pick Three

Mighty Holy Bull loans his legendary name and memory to today's featured race, the Grade III 1 Mile Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Holy Bull is now remembered for his ability as a sire, but the Turk likes to remember him as a horse who was a failure on the his quest to win the Kentucky Derby as a favorite, but had connections who had enough foresight to rethink their horse's 3 YO campaign and turn him into a force to be feared. A terrible breakdown in the 1995 Donn Handicap luckily did not end his life and we remember his legacy. A certain horse named Barbaro started his 3 Yo campaign here. The fantastic print shown above can be found at Riverwind Gallery. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park; The Holy Bull Stakes Grade III; 1 Mile on Fast Dirt for 3 YOs.



Aikenite is a Pletcher trainee with J. Velazquez up. A son of a top sprinter sire, Yes It's True, his ability to stretch out is yet to be determined but we like the possibilities. This is his fourth crack at a graded stakes win and his first race since early November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Training nicely including a :59 4/5ths bullet with 19 runners at 5f this week.

Jackson Bend goes for Trainer Zito for the first time today, and he has five wins on fast dirt already. Zito has only a 5% win rate in Graded Stakes over rolling year and hopefully he'll improve on that with a horse that breaks from the far outside and has good quality. Jock J. Rose replaces J. Sanchez in the irons. Training very sharply since late December.

So The Turk thinks this is a two horse race for the win but there is a nice level of quality in this race and someone who finishes out of the money will still be a very good horse. I see a stratification layer just below the top two that includes Homeboykris, William's Kitten and Winslow Homer.

R. Dutrow's runner Homeboykris has something to prove after a dreadful Remsen in late November but is the 1 mile Grade I Champagne winner from a six horse field. Prado is still top shelf and is up. A. Dutrow's Winslow Homer is from Unbridled's Song and has two straight wins in lesser quality company, including a big loose on the lead effort in the slop. William's Kitten is a Maker trainee with Eclipse Award winning Leparoux up and has been burning the barn down in works the last two weeks.

Pace will bring Piscitelli possibly into Show or 4th and Thank U Philippe can't be discounted too low either. Whoever wins this race will be a quality horse and a few of the losers will fly under the wire and still be horses to watch. Good stuff in an era of small fields and questionable quality.

I thought we'd take a run at the Pick Three as well that starts in Race 7, a 7 furlong dirt affair, MSW 45K. #7 Liquidity Event was scratched by Trainer Zito this morning. I'm going to back 3 horses, Mine N Gems/4, Six Chicks/5 and Bushwhacked/6. If I was singling I'd take Bushwhacked, a Sheppard Trainee for Augustin Stables with Leparoux up. What a team that is.

Race 8 is a 1 1/16 firm turf ALW N1X for F&M. Again I have three horses at the time of writing I'm backing, Take a Vow/3, Miss Olivia Rae/7 and Musical Romance/9. Take a Vow would be my single, A Janney bred and owned runner for Trainer McGaughey comes in off a 7f turf maiden win.

The Turk is right now looking at a 3 X 3 X 2 pick three bet for $18 dollars. The fields are big enough with no heavy duty chalk to justify the slightly bloated bet of mine.

As always, check the weather and the scratches and tote board board before you jump into the fray.

Have Fun, Turk Out!