Breeders' Cup 2018 Handicapping Homework: The Breeders' Cup Turf Video Review

Breeders' Cup Turf; Photo Harry How/Getty Images

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

The purpose of this post is to provide the last two and sometimes three races of each entrant in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf. 

The goal one week out is just to get a feel for the runners and link the past performances to the visual handicapping.  I'll come back tomorrow and start adding my notes and observations for each race.  It's alot of effort that I'll only invest into 3, perhaps 4 races over the coming Breeders' Cup weekend.  Any other betting I do will be done using a tote board handicapping method, strictly taking some low risk/medium reward cracks at positive ROI.

The following are covered here:

• Arlow 4 YO colt.  Sycamore, Kentucky Turf Cup. 
• Channel Maker 4 YO gelding.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Crystal Ocean (GB) 4 YO colt.  Championship Stakes and September Stakes.
• Enable (GB) 4 YO Mare.  Prix Arc de Triomphe and September Stakes.
• Glorious Empire (Ire) 7 YO gelding.   Sword Dancer and Bowling Green.
• Hi Happy (Arg) 6 YO Horse.  Knickerbocker, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green and Manhattan
• Hunting Horn (Ire) 3 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe and Secretariat Stakes
• Liam the Charmer 5 YO gelding.  John Henry Turf Championship
• Magical (Ire) 3 YO Filly.  British Championship Stakes and Arc de Triomphe
• Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) 4 YO colt. Mathias Machline.  
• Roaring Lion 3 YO colt.  QE2 Stakes and Irish Championship Stakes
• Robert Bruce (Chi) 4 YO Colt.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Arlington Million
• Sadler's Joy 5 YO horse.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Talismanic (GB) 5 YO Horse (2017 BC Turf Winner).  Arc de Triomphe and Prix Foy
• Waldgeist (GB) 4 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe, Prix Foy, Prix Saint Cloud

Return back to my blog, The Turk and the Little Turk,  all week leading up to the Breeders' Cup for more content.



The Sycamore G3:  Kee.  Good Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  18 October 2018




The Kentucky Turf Cup G3;  Kentucky Downs. Good Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  8 Sept 2018




Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational G1. Belmont.  Soft Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  29 September 2018




Sword Dancer G1: Saratoga.  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  25 August 2018




September Stakes G3: Kempton (UK).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  8 September 2018



Knickerbocker G2;  Belmont. Good Turf.  1 1/8 Miles.  8 October 2018




The Bowling Green G2;  Saratoga.  Soft Turf. 1 3/8 Miles.   28 July 2018



Secretariat Stakes G1; Arlington Park.  Good Turf.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018




Prix de l' Arc de Triomphe G1.  Longchamp (Fr).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  7 October 2018



Champions Stakes G1. Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf.  1 1/4 Miles RH. 20 October 2018




John Henry Turf Championship G2.  Santa Anita.  Firm. 1 1/4 Miles.  30 September 2018




British Championship Stakes G1 (F).  Ascot (GB). Soft Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 20 Oct 2018

Magical (IRE)




Mathias Machline (G1).  Gavea (Brz). Heavy Turf. 1 1/4 Miles LH.  4 August 2018



The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes G1.  Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf. 1 Mile.  20 Oct 2018



Irish Championship Stakes G1.  Leopardstown (Ire).  Good.  1 1/4 Miles  LH.  15 September 2018



Arlington Million G1.  Arlington Park.  Firm.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018



Manhattan Stakes G1.  Belmont.  Firm Turf. 1 1/4 Miles. 9 June 2018




Prix Foy G2. Longchamp (Fr). Firm. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 16 September 2018




Prix de Saint Cloud G1.  Saint Cloud (Fr).  Good/Soft.  1 1/2 Miles LH. 1 July 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Joe Hirsch-Photo by Blood Horse

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.   Joe Hirsch, known as the Dean of American Turf Racing has been gone over over 9 years now, but with a Grade One race, The Turf Classic, names after him, he's far from forgotten.

Such a different era on so many different levels.  the County was different, horse racing was prominent, journalists were respected, integrity and ethics were everything.  It's amazing to me how as a society we have devolved the institutions of news reporting, in my humble opinion set in motion by a perfect storm of deregulation, the treating of news media as entertainment, the collapse of print and the rise of the internet, where any half-ass blogger or tweeter can say anything in a few pithy sentences and have it read more often, by more people, than any long form writer could hope for.

The American's of Joe Hirsch's heyday had to get the paper and read the words written about the greats of turf.  For me, it was waiting for Sports Illustrated and the writing of another great voice, Bill Nack, or listening to Jim McKay on ABC Sports on the weekend.  The Turk is none of those men.  I am neither a trained journalist or a professional writer.  What I do have in common with them is ethics and integrity.  I try to express my views and opinions on the sport of horse racing, and handicapping in particular, with honesty.  There is enough of fake news in our world, I try not to add to that blight. I'm not a tout, as four a four-letter word as there are to me.  I'm also neither part of the online horse racing intelligentsia that chimes in from some moral high ground tweeting disdain for anyone deemed not worthy.  If you are reading the Turk, and I know who you are,  all I can offer is my love of the horses above all else, my thirty years of reading past performances and analyzing the repeating patterns of them and my bet construction thoughts.  Know this:  I'm not trying to get rich betting the races.  I'm game is purely to carve out positive ROI over a long period of time and this platform of mine, now in it's tenth year, most likely isn't going to change much.  If that's cool with you, thanks and let's get after this race!


The weather is dry but the tracks are soaked.  This one however is on the turf which I'm handicapping as Soft/Yielding.  By the way, I've already handicapped The Vosburg, which is on the dirt, currently listed as Good but I have hopes it will be Fast later today.

Five of the eight entries here last raced in the 1 1/2 Mile Sword Dancer on Travers Day (missing: Robert Bruce, Carrick and Teodoro)


Sword Dancer G1:  1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf SAR



Four the entrants went in The Bowling Green on soft surface.

Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles Soft Turf SAR



Robert Bruce (Chi) looking pretty strong swinging wide and closing at the Arlington Million.  Below you'll see him run a subtle 6th place finish but close to the winner in a blanket at The Manhattan. 

Arlington Million G1 : 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf AP

6 lengths back at the 1/8 pole.  Very strong showing indeed.












Here we have Carrick, a lightly raced 3 YO coming in from good turf at 1 1/4 Miles.  2 of 2 at Belmont, 4 of 4 in the money over turf.


The Secretariat G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Good Turf AP




The Manhattan G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf BEL



I watched a bunch of video as well this morning on Twinspires TV of Teodoro (Ire).  Lasix for first time, drops 5 pounds, cuts back in distance.  Very inconsistent.  Isn't chalk overseas. I'm passing for now.


What do we do with this information?  I can't say I have a very strong opinion as The Turk fair line illustrates.




I'm thinking low risk exacta where I'm purely hunting for value.  I may just put Channel Maker on top with four or five of the field below him.  Something like 8 OVER 3-6-1-2-7 for $5.  Perhaps that's a bet that you hit only 20% of the time, maybe less, but the reward is worth the capital risk, and you must face it, capital risk is part of any game where you hand 20+% back to the house before you even start. 


Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 36th Running of the Arlington Million G1

The Turk's beverage before 35th running of the Million

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our ninth year and eleventh month of providing handicapping insights to people who never asked for it.  I'm the Turk, a 52 year old bald blogger who has been handicapping since 1987.  My first time visiting Arlington was in 1985, the day the old track burned down.  I was in the US Navy stationed at Great Lakes and I was rounded up, put on a truck.  It was another 22 years before I returned and now I try to make Preview Day or the Million Day part of my annual calendar.  Circumstances this year (Family Reunion/Little Turk preparation for College) has me watching on TwinSpires TV, but I'll be back for the 37th,  God willing.

I could ramble quite a bit about Arlington Park.  It's a shame that Illinois racing isn't better.  The track is fantastic, the staff friendly, the fake dirt plays fair and the turf, in my humble opinion, is the best in North America, and its my second favorite track to play besides Kentucky Downs.  Every track has a vibe.  I've been to many facilities, big and small.  Arlington has a vibe I appreciate, it's my speed, and I wish I could go more often.

I have to give a plug to the good people at Hello Race Fans!  You absolute must check out their post for the Arlington Million.  If you are a data junkie like I am, you will go into overload.

Where is Divisidero running?  Entered at both Saratoga and Arlington Park for Saturday, I've even gone to extreme measures (tweeting the trainer) to know for sure.  By the way, an excellent article written by Natalie Voss for the Paulick Report can be found here on Trainer Kelly Rubley, Divisidero's conditioner (Voss, 2018).  I'm going to go with Daily Race Form reporting that states he's going to the Fourstar Dave at SAR.  I think he had a great shot at Arlington, but I always trust the connections know best.

 Let's get after it!



Let's take a look at some recent and not recent, still relevant video.


G1 Manhattan @BEL Firm Turf 1 1/4 Miles (June 2018)



Watch Robert Bruce (Yellow/Blue Sleeves/Yellow Cap) and watch the bump in the straight but his surge at the finish.  This was no simple 6th place finish.  With an upgraded pilot (no offense to Gaffalione at all) in I. Ortiz for Trainer Chad Brown, I make him my (light) chalk. Take another look at him here in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy where he gets the better of Spring Quality.

G3 Fort Marcy @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 1/8 Miles





G1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap on Firm Turf  1 1/8 Miles (Feb 2018)



When a 5-1 runner beats Beach Patrol and Divisidero take notice.  Almannar (GB) in the royal blue Shadwell Stables silks looked impressive with the late turn of foot.  The 6 YO gelding came back and won a 100K OC at Belmont on Belmont Stakes Day.

G1 United Nations @ Monmouth Firm Turf 1 3/8 miles (30 June)



Money Multiplier (royal blue with white stars) ran a good race against 23-1 Funtastic.  With an extra 1/8 of a mile.....

And a few looks at Oscar Performance:  7 Wins in 12 Turf Ties, 2 of 2 at the distance and $1.9 MM lifetime earnings for the 4 YO.

G1 Secretariat Stakes 2017 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf (turn sound down-bad music alert)




G3 Poker Stakes @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 mile




You can find race replays for Arlington Park through this link.  Of note is July 7th, Million Preview Day with G3 Arlington H. and Stars and Stripes.

I can't say I have a strong opinion on this field.  I've essentially place the runners in three buckets:

Robert Bruce (Chi)/10
Oscar Performance/11
Spring Quality/2

All I think will be near front of pace and all I think can win.  Spring Quality, a Quality Road 6 YO is lightly raced but I'm a big fan of Mr. George Strawbridge and his Augustin Stable and how they train and prepare these amazing turf runners.  80 years old, a classy man.

Almanaar (GB)/3
Money Multiplier/8

They can win, but both need things to go their way.  No reason to not believe they will receive some prize,  Place-4th.

Deauville (Ire)/9

In the lead as the favorite in last year's edition and couldn't stay on.  Did another year improve him? Capable, but he hasn't won in over 10 races.  I'm betting that the uninitiated flock to the Euro invader and I need him to lose for me to win.

Century Dream (Ire)/5

First time lasik, 7 time turf winner, 4 Yo Cape Cross (Ire).  he's been coming up empty in one mile straights.  Won his last LH and has won at the distance.  I dunno right now but would I be surprised if he was Show-5th?  No.


Finally,  insert handicapping every time Jarvis says practice and this is my weekend handicapping mood!




Have fun, Turk out!