The Nomination Is In: The PID Mile $200K

War Correspondent

Welcome Friend to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Between family commitments and my school work resuming (yes, a 50 something college kid), I wasn't much of a handicapper or blogger this weekend.  I handicapped the Northern Dancer and Woodbine Mile yesterday but only placed one bet on each race, a $10 win bet on Noble Thought and Glenville Gardens in the respective races but no joy.  Both were 10-1 and I liked their chances and have no regrets about taking a shot.  Most on Twitter that I respect thought both races would go to the chalk and Johnny Bear (who I rated very similar to Noble Thought) who also was about 10-1 nipped Hawkbill at the wire while World Approval really impressed me and I haven't been that high on the grey/roan previously.  He answered questions for me yesterday to move to 4 wins in 5 starts in 2017 for Trainer Mark Casse.  I am getting very excited about Breeders' Cup and he'll present a real dilemma for me. Anyway, my ROI was negative and I lost $20 of investment capital.  It happens and its important to remember that if you don't swing for vulnerable chalk you'll be passing up about a 68% chance of winning.  Vulnerable is relative, obviously!

I'd like to see Presque Isle Downs improve.  The product has been mostly bottom tier for a long time now.  They have a nice 1 mile oval of fake dirt that plays fair.  They have one big race Monday night in the Grade 2 PID Master, the 5th race on an otherwise blah card.  Pick up your game and connect with your audience and don't just collect slot money.  I don't want to be negative.  This was a nice start 5-6 years ago, but no progress is no progress.  The racing seems solely to exist for simulcast feeds. 

Let's get after this!




This should be competitive with War Correspondent and Ghost Hunter on top.  War Correspondent is a very classy 7 year old War Front, lightly raced with only 14 career starts while Ghost Hunter is also 7 and has 48 career starts. 

The next five could finish in any order but my base handicap is my best view of the order of finish.  If going towards Tri's and Super's I think Black Tie Event or Downtown Cowboy, with 14 PID wins between them, could keep running where others ease and get into those last few spots on the ticket.  I am wary of that but I don't think either can win. 

Have fun with it friends.  I think Sister Turk and I are headed South to The Masters tomorrow and I'd love to meet any of you that will be there, but unfortunately, most will just be watching a feed. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Presque Isle Downs Mile

I'll be the first to say it, I hate the way Presque Isle Downs changed their big weekend around. In years past, this race came on Friday Night, with Saturday Night being the Masters. This year? They put this race up against the home opener of the Buffalo Bills,  Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Really? Tomorrow's game goes up against the first Monday Night Football game of the year, Really? Is this about your simulcasting revenue or actual fans in the seats?


I question if racinos like PID really do care about horse racing fans. For the past few years I've talked up PID and I talked up the savvy of having their big weekend the first weekend after Saratoga closes. They lost all that good will with this years scheduling AND their pathetic website which doesn't feel at all like horse racing actually happens at this track or that Groupie Doll is coming.  Do they know who Groupie Doll is?  Do they care?  Rosie Napravnik is coming.  Do they know that Rosie is an exciting rider and fan favorite?  Do they care?  Is that crickets or the sound of old people pulling slot handles.





This race is WIDE OPEN.  Wide open, after I think Hogy. Wayne Catalano wins 22% off the turf to fake dirt switch and a Grade 3 winner on fake stuff in late May.  Expect to watch him press pace before winning by a few lengths.

Beneath Hogy there is real value to be found.  Name recognition will bring dollars to Gourmet Dinner, Photo Shoot and Ponzi Scheme but I'm leaning in a few different directions in a completely speculative manner.  I like the current form of Whatthecatdrugin; it's a minor step up in class for the 6 YO gelding with $252,000 in career earnings but likes the fake dirt and will go fast to the front and try to wire it.  I'm expecting in top four.

Alpha Bettor/Awesome Overture/ Occasional View and Super Chunky is a blanket finish on paper;      Alpha Bettor is a Grade 3 and Grade 2 winner in past three races.  A nice :47 1/5th 4F bullet at WO in early September.  A serious win challenger but I'm going to slot him 2-3 or 4.

Awesome Overture is a lightly raced 4 YO Awesome Again son.  Nice run in Grade 2 Seagram Cup at WO.  Class but results not there yet.  2-3-4-5 seems to be the slot.

Graham Motion/Augustin Stables Occasional View also steps up in class but has nice N3X with at PID on July 4.  2-3-4-5 seems reasonable and win wouldn't shock me with real value north of 10 to 1 possible.

Super Chunky upon further review is no better than 4th or 5th here and I'm going to drop him back and insert someone from the next group Hoofit, Gourmet Dinner or Ponzi Scheme.  Hoofit, with Edgar Prado up for Graham Motion, hasn't won in over 11 races but he's come close lately and if forced to pick, I'm taking him for the 3-4- and 5 spot.

10 cent Supers and 50 Cent Trifectas are on the menu and this is a race worth swinging for the fences at.

Have fun friends, even if PID could have made it funner.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 9, 2011: The Presque Isle Downs Mile Preview

Life is all about timing. Being in the right place at the right time and taking advantage of the right moments is something you learn and it's something I try to teach the Little Turk. Opportunity knocks and you have to answer!

I think Presque Isle Downs gets it. A racino, sure, but slowly but surely improving the race product and they place a big weekend in their calendar the first weekend after Saratoga and Del Mar closes when addicts like me are jonesing for a big field and beatable chalk.

On the Friday night card we have a nice field of 12 runners going after $250,000 in the Presque Isle Mile. Three millionaires and my tentative chalk, Stunning Stag, set to break a million.

If I were writing a handicapping book I'd use these PP's as an example of runners of various class rising and falling, as well as turf and dirt to synthetic angles and distance increase and decrease angles. Take some time with these PP's like the Ol' Turk is doing. I printed them last night and I've been marinating in them. I love the challenge that this field will present and I think there is some money to be made with the exotic options here.

I've laid out my initial thoughts and I'll sleep on it and finish up by early Friday.

Have fun with this, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Mile and Pick Three

It's been sometime since the lovely Dita wanted to sit with the Turk for a cigar. While we didn't talk much, instead reflecting quietly on the maduro wrapper and the sun cured tobacco that was loving rolled by the artisans at Padron Cigars, she did say that the fact that The Turk preaches just a few simple principles, that he talks it and walks it, made her want to celebrate. Who am I to say no?

Simple principles. Principle #1 is always to pick your marks. There are lots of races every day, find ones you think you can beat. Principle #2 is that you have to build a base handicap, a reordering of the field from start to finish without the bias of morning lines, talking heads, TVG/HRTV/DRF hype. Principle #3 is to take that handicap and work the tote board. I'm looking for value, not chalk, and with my "built in a vacuum" handicap approach, look for horses you are bullish on that you seem to have a different opinion on then the betting public.

I reckon those are the big three. The Turk hit a nice strike on an unlikely Allowance Race on synthetic track none the less because he followed his principles. Let's go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7



The target was the Pick Three. The Pick Three paid $188 and I should have hit it, winning the first and third legs, but missing on the leg I singled. My second highest ranked horse won the race but I made a decision to not spend $36 on a Pick Three that seemed very chalky to me and I can take losing $12 dollars instead of over covering the bet. Others will disagree but over the long run over covering will raise the investment and only marginally increase the ROI.

I was watching the tote board for Race 6 and salivating; My base handicap valued horses that were the 5th and sixth favorites of the betting public. My top horse, New Englander was the overwhelming bettor's chalk but I thought Place and Show would be owned by these value horses and I'd have a nice payout. Taking my top 5 I rolled the dice, and lacking the time I normally have, I boxed all five and let it ride. Boxing Sherribaldi, Iowa Alice, Jewels and Jeans , the 4th, 5th and 6th top choices of the bettors and then having them actually win produced a $1,442.60 trifecta win.

Remember, this isn't bragging. The Turk doesn't brag and he respects this game. I am humbled by it regularly, but you have to savor the good times along the path of life, and this was a good one for Big Turk because it was an affirmation of my principles and the time that I put into my craft.

I made the strike and didn't even care to bet the Presque Isle Mile, which I had pretty much horsecollered and I left some money on the table in that race, but I'll leave you today with another principle: Don't be greedy, forget the idea of needing "action". Pick and choose the races you bet. If you're not concentrating or you don't feel it, keep your money in your pocket and walk on.

Thanks Mrs. Turk for your patience.

Remember 9/11 and what we collectively lost on that day.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Downs Mile and the Pick Three

The Turk caters to a certain reader; a review of my analytics paints me a picture of some heavy hitting hard core gamblers that are reading my blog at this very moment. Those hard core whales are looking for some action on a Friday afternoon, and this weekend, I'm all about Presque Isle Downs. Presque. You don't have to pronounce it to play it, so lets give it a twirl. In all seriousness, for a Race Casino, it's a nice place, an easy location for the Turk to get to, and there are all kinds of things around it like huge outlet malls and water splash parks for those of you that like that stuff. The beer is cold, the tapeta crap plays pretty fair, and you'll likely to see a Sheppard/Strawberry/Augustin Stable runner there pretty often. They have positioned their big weekend on the first weekend after Saratoga ends. Not bad, well played. Let's Go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7 including the $250,000 Presque Isle Mile



Some interesting fields will make these races challenging, but challenging is what I'm all about at the end of a long day! In Race 7, The Presque Isle Mile, I stewed on these runners for sometime trying to logically write them down in a predictive order of finish. I settled on Gayego to win, a tepid chalk for me indeed. 8 of 11 lifetime in the money on the fake stuff and familiar with tapeta from the tracks he ran on in Dubai, Alan Garcia ships in to ride for Godolphin. he's stretching back out to a mile after settling into the 6-7 furlong distances but he's capable.

Stunning Stag takes the QEW down from Woodbine for Sid Attard. Pulling back in distance, he's training very well and has looked sharp since May. Easily capable of winning, watch the odds, 6-1 in the morning line, I think he sinks to 7-2 by post time.

Who knows what Mambo Meister will bring? Trainer Gleaves only wins 12% of the time stretching out from sprints to routes and wins only 13% of his routes and 14% of his races overall. This is his 31st start and only second fake dirt try. I'm discounting him a few spots on many cards and I should show some conviction and drop him further but the horse is 19 of 30 in the money lifetime and has the class. I'm dropping him a few slots on most cards.

The second tier is a very nice collection of horses and many of them could easily beat Mambo Meister into that top three. Successful Dan ships in for Grade I winning Trainer Charles Lopresti and he gets Eclipse Award winning J. Leparoux up. He's been training sharply at Keeneland on the fake stuff and ran last out at Arlington in early August on that fake stuff.

Allie's Event won an N2Y with a 92 BSF at 1 mile here at PID in mid August. A 4f :47 last week lets us know he's still sharp. He represents serious value if he reaches the gate >7-1.

Last year's champ, Cherokee Artist returns as a 5 YO. More than capable still. Rocking Rockstar has won 4 starts in 8 tries on fake dirt and his last two synthetic efforts were, rockin. I Know Why, a 4 YO sin of Why Why Why tries fake stuff for the first time but has won three times this year and could break the top four.

I'm going to single the middle race and keep the bet risk relatively low for the pick three at $18. I'll bet the mile with Super's and Tri's with variations of my base handicap including some variations where I will drop Mambo Meister out of top four and Gayego to Show and fourth.

The Turk is all for Chip getting Mine That Bird back for his 5 YO season. I don't know what the Bird has left but it seems to me that he's been placed in positions all year of unrealistic expectations. I had a blast on Woodward Day at the Spa with Sister Turk and I'm glad I got to see the gelding run.



Have Fun, Turk Out!