The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup Classic Grade I

While not my Chalk, The Turk is enamored with the pretty mare to the left in the wonderful Charles Pravata photo, Zenyatta. We wish her well and hopes she proves us wrong.

Race 9 at Santa Anita Post Time 6:45 ET; The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on very fake dirt for 3 YOs and Up.

I'm not thrilled to be presenting one Euro after another to win but they seem to be better right now on Turf and that form seems to be playing the best on the polytrack. Adian O'Brien has not had success on the American Stage yet but brings a solid runner in Rip Van Winkle with his rider Murtagh up today. Coming in with two straight Grade I wins after getting away in the conditions book from See the Stars, a theme it would seem today and another horse we are giving credit to for running only one beaten length to the superstar. Hedging down and I think he's a very vunerable chalk.

I'm going to give Hall of Famer Baffert's Richard's Kid another chance to show me he's for real. A decent Goodwood followed up his Pacific Classic win. Proven on poly but a big stretch here. Working very well.

Either Gio Ponti or Einstein I expect to step up and possibly surprise for the win and both are capable of being in the top four. How easy it is to overlook these two titans as a knowledgeable horsewoman named Cathy reminded me of today.

Summer Bird has as many wins on an off track (2) as he has on fast dirt, but no starts on turf or poly. In my mind he's done enough to be the 3 YO of the year and if he can find the top three here today, he'll cement his status, but I'm not banking on it.

Mighty Zenyatta is a very very very good horse, a great F&M runner, and a poly monster. I think she should have tried the Classic last year, not this year. I truely hope I am wrong but I think she's wearing down not speeding up and a 98 BSF won't win today.

I have great respect for the little gelding that could, Mine That Bird. I look forward to his 4 YO season and I haven't written him off here, I'm just being realistic. More then talented, but the Goodwood was so-so and last year's BC was abysmal, so this particular form of fake dirt may not be his cup of tea.

These are the days. Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 29, 2009: The King's Bishop and the Travers Stakes

That fine looking colt in the Adam Coglianese/NYRA photo is none other then Capt. Candyman Can, the winner of the 2009 King's Bishop at Saratoga on August 29th.

OK, I'd be remiss to not mention it was by inquiry and the disqualification of Vineyard Haven.

Vineyard Haven ran a strong race and looked like the dominant two year old he was at this time last year before his Triple Crown bid was ruined by a winter sojourn to Dubai and the home of his owners. It's within their rights, but this horse loves dirt, North American dirt, and he had this race sewn up but couldn't keep it together despite the hard work of Alan Garcia.

All that said, Capt. Candyman Can was bringing it the last few hops and I think would have won this race if not for the double bump that knocked him off stride. A classy ride by Castellano who coolly motioned at the stewards and knew the result of this inquiry from the moment it hit the board.

The Turk loves the King's Bishop. Some of the Turk's favorite runners over the last few years have thrilled me in the Travers warm-up match. While this years edition wasn't one for the ages it wasn't a snoozer either.

SAR Race 11: The King's Bishop Grade I; 7F on Dirt for 3 YOs.



My handicap was good, not earth shattering. I have struggled on Saratoga dirt most of the meet so the Capt. Candyman Can victory and my exacta payout was good medicine.



SAR Race 12: The Travers Stakes Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YOs.



As a handicapper who takes his opinions publicly, you sometimes make a choice and then get buyers remorse. That's exactly what happened with me and Quality Road.

The Turk has said before that he builds his handicaps in a vacuum. I don't like to read any pre race hype from the trainers or the TV talking heads and I don't like seeing the Morning Line until I set my own. That process works for me usually.

In this case, everything I heard and read about the preparation of Quality Road to jump from 6 1/2 furlongs to the classic distance made me feel sorta dumb and by the time the race went to post I regretted my chalk selection. That doesn't happen to me often. His antics going into the gate were all it took to add the -ey to my name.

Would I have selected Summer Bird? No. This Bird did impress me very much and my irrational opinion of his abilities at 1 1/4 miles is now gone. I did bet my base handicap but I boxed the $1 superfecta, but Hold Me Back through a wrench in those works.

It's hard to be down when you pick 4 of the top five, nearly in a row, but a win is a win and a loss is just another ripped up ticket.

Was this one a classic? It established Summer Bird as the current top three year old and it underscored that the class of the 3 YO division is either retired, injured, or a filly.

The Turk is headed to Saratoga for the Woodward. Drop me a line, I'd love to meet any of my readers near the paddock before a race. Either Sister Turk or Little Turk will be joining me. If Little Turk comes, he's prepared to offer his iron pipe locks for the late pick 4 in return for Lego's.

Best Regards, Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 29, 2009; The Travers Stakes Grade I at Saratoga

Our sport is rich in tradition, something the Turk hopes it can retain in these darker hours of its history. The oldest stakes race in America, the Travers goes to post today for the 140th time at 5:45 ET on the main track in Saratoga. Awaiting the winning stable is the canoe, to be painted in their colors, where it will remain until next August to remind everyone who is the King of Saratoga at least for one year. The colors of Colonel John will join the other coats of underpaint after today.

Race 12 SAR, Post Time 5:46 ET; The Travers Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.



The Turk hasn't been a very good dirt handicapper at Saratoga as I highlighted in my analysis of the King's Bishop. Sometimes the best way to break out of a funk as a handicapper is to just keep handicapping and breaking down the results afterwards. I have spoken before about being humble or being humbled by this game; It's your choice. No matter what success I can talk about in the past, its a what have you done for me lately business and I've been a money burner on the dirt this meet. The Turk has almost stopped betting the dirt at Saratoga but I've been handicapping almost daily. I do that when I need to clear my mind, to not feel any pressure, and just take it back to basics. Saratoga is a tough play for many 'cappers, so I'm not down on myself, just reflective and being as analytical as I can be. Never lie to yourself and don't try to bet your way out of a rough patch.

Supers are in Vogue for this race and that's what I'm planning for. With that in mind, I like the morning line chalk Quality Road to win today. Three straight 110+ BSF's have placed him near the top of the 3 YO class after the maddness of Triple Crown Season ended. Training very well with Pletcher after an odd switch from Jerkens. An Owner has the right to do that and at least it was handled in a manner that didn't air publicly the raw emotions it must have unleashed to those involved. The distance and the lack of sloppy track work only concern me slightly. The son of Elusive Quality has what it takes.

My handicaps this weekend are more of a bet strategy then a dispassionate view of the horseflesh involved. Summer Bird and Kensei are clearly better horses, but I'm backing Charitable Man in the place spot. Working lights out since his solid 3rd place in the Grade II Jim Dandy, this is his second effort off a >45 day layoff, something Trainer McLaughlin hits 25% of the time.

Warrior's Reward and Summer's Bird will be right there to pounce off the pace, much of which will be driven by Trainer Zito's Our Edge. Kenesi may press the pace sooner then either of these two and I'm looking for him to falter because of this. I may be wrong, and the Asmussen trainee is a fine horse who may make me look foolish, but again, this is gambling and I'm shading him down a tad, no higher then fourth in a few of my tickets.

Warrior's Reward has the tepid Borel up. He's won only 1 of 31 races at the SPA and his in the money percentage is very poor. I'm a big Bo-Rail fan, and perhaps Warrior's Reward will help him break out. I like the 5F work on the off track and the race best 113 BSF on a wet track. Only 8-1 on the Morning Line, that will surely go up but at post value will still be there.

Summer Bird is also on his 2nd off a >45 day layoff, something Trainer Ice only hits 7% of the time. He does have a 106 BSF from his effort at the Haskell on a wet track, but an 86 from the slop at the Kentucky Derby which was also at this classic distance. Is this a BC Marathon runner or a BC Classic runner?

I am hunting for a strike today and I will employ a matrix and not a box strategy. It will aproximate a wheel and almost all my tickets will place Quality Road at the top, and the value tickets will have Charitable Man, especially if >6-1, and several will have Our Edge holding on for fourth, with Zito/Garcia a formidable team and just sparkling bullets for this rabbit. Garcia has really brought it to Saratoga, 29 wins so far and 44% in the money. Yeah.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 2, 2009; The Haskell Grade I

It's hard to believe that one year ago that monster colt to the left, Big Brown, was stepping onto the last racetrack he'd ever menace, Monmouth Park, the scene of his last major victory in The Haskell Invitational. He was only the second Kentucky Derby winner to win the Haskell Invitational, the other being War Emblem in 2002.

Today's edition of the 42nd running of the Haskell Invitational, named for the former President and Chairman of the Board of Monmouth Park, Mr. Armory Haskell, features another feared runner who will go off at ridiculously low odds, the Preakness and three time Grade I stakes winner, Rachel Alexandra. She is challenged primarily by the Belmont Stakes Winner, Summer Bird, Grade II winners Papa Clem and Munnings, and the classy and now royal, Atomic Rain.

Race 13 Monmouth Park; Post Time 6:15 ET; The Haskell Invitational Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



This is a handicap you'll have to tie to the weather very closely. The hour by hour forecast for Oceanport, NJ today shows some very severe weather around 3 to 4 PM with 40-60% precipitation most of the afternoon. You can find the track condition updated regularly at the Monmouth Park website.

I don't know how you don't support Rachel Alexandra to win if based solely on the numbers, trips and body of work. The filly has posted 6 straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figs and has trained very fast since her 19 length victory in the Mother Goose in late June. She also has the highest lifetime speed fig on an off track at 103. I'm hunting for exotics, so I will wheel, key or build a matrix around Rachel Alexandra winning and if she doesn't, someone other then this Turk will be happy.

The pace scenario for this race is hard to figure, but most likely Rachel Alexandra will go to the front or just outside and back of the pace setter. The seven furlong flash Munnings, coming in with back to back wins and 2 straight 110+ BSFs looks to strike the front early and bring some heat. Another who may press the pace is the unlikely top four finisher Duke of Mischief. It's a stretch but I'm leaning towards the speed sustaining 2 extra furlongs for Munnings and carrying him anywhere from second to fourth.

A strong collection of horses compete in this race, a notch below Rachel Alexandra, but fine Grade II challengers. Papa Clem I have fifth but could easily find the top 4. Atomic Rain and Summer Bird could easily flip flop around with Munnings.

Whats it all mean? Build a base handicap and then work your handicap. For me that means keeping Rachel Alexandra on top and inserting in combinations for the Exacta, Tri and Super. The overwhelming favorite that I think Rachel Alexandra will be with the betting public will make the needle on the risk/reward meter lean heavy towards risk. I'll take no more then 10-12 dollars and see if we can't make it into 50 or 60 dollars.

Good Luck and Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 31, 2009; The High Rock Spring Stakes at Saratoga

The Adam Coglianese photo is of Stormin Normandy, winner of the 2008 High Rock Spring Stakes at Saratoga.

Today's edition contains a couple of long time Turk favorites, Naughty New Yorker and Stud Muffin (Two names the Turk has tried to emulate to no avail.) While I think Naughty New Yorker is on the tail end of a 47 race career, Stud Muffin at 5 YO is still a threat and will figure in the tickets today.

SAR Race 7 Post Time 5:48 ET; The High Rock Spring Stakes $86,000; 1 1/8 miles on NYS Dirt raced by 3 YO and Up NYS breds.



I like Trainer Maker's Future Prospect. the 5 Yo gelded son of Freud is coming of back to back 100+ BSF races at BEL at 1 mile and 1 1/16. With Leparoux up today , he's 7 of his last 16 starts and 9 of 12 in the money on fast dirt.

I'm placing a claimer, South Fourth Street, in my top four. Winner of his last outing, an N2X on July 17th, I like the quick return to the track for him. He's six of his last 15 starts and has 6 wins in 19 starts on fast dirt. he seems to favor an off track, but I'm looking for a value horse to place in my top three and top four and Trainer Contessa clips along with wins 24% of the time after a claim.

Stud Muffin will be in the top four, maybe even the win spot. My placement is more of an acknowledgement from me I won't win this without some time of wheel, key or box.

Tommassi is coming off a place at 1 1/8 on dirt and is 6 of 23 on fast dirt. Tr. Bond/jock Maragh win at a 32% clip.

The rest of the field is legitimate and no real sure toss candidates in the bunch. I'll keep to just a few bets and we'll see what happens.

The Turk visited Saratoga on opening day. It was a real treat for me to meet some of my horse racing blogging heroes, real talented and pioneering horse racing blogger folks. While our sport may be in a decline, you could not tell from the crowd at the SPA. I shuffled down to the paddock before race three and got a good look at the horses I handicapped for Race 3, the James Marvin Stakes.

That's my chalk, Finallymadeit, who lead most of the race only to fade badly the last few hops. Congrats to Gold Trippi, who the Turk tossed of course. As there were two scratches, I declined to bet and just enjoyed.

Race 3 SAR July 29, 2009: The James Marvin Stakes: 7F on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Again I find myself scratching my head over Riley Tucker. It was an exciting race and it was nice to just enjoy it as a fan.

There is some great writing to be found at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page. Not only will you find Alliance Blogs, but a feed and a link selection to the best voices in horse racing all over the world.

Enjoy this weekend's races. Mine That Bird returns to action, along with Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra. All good stuff. Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 6, 2009: Belmont Stakes Day

Race 6 BEL: The True North Handicap Grade II; 6f on NYS Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



It's always good to start your betting day off strong. Prerace, I wasn't thrilled with the six horse field, and I didn't see anyway that Benny the Bull and Fabulous Strike would not finish one-two. I picked Benny the Bull because I wanted a better payoff, but I thought that was an easy Exacta bet, and it was , returning $12.40 on a boxed bet.

Where I think this old Turk did well and what got me excited was I was much higher on Silver Edition then the betting public was. I had him third in my pre race analysis while the bettors had him last. Silver Edition did indeed take third and i was rewarded with $177.00 in Trifecta, for a race take of $189 bucks on $12 investment.




Race 9 BEL: The Acorn Grade I: 1 Mile on NYS Dirt for 3YO Fillies.



As a handicapper, you really can't beat yourself up after you just miss one. I like to make the analogy of a cornerback who just gave up a deep ball and has to go back out there the next play. One needs a short memory as there will be time for analysis later.

I wouldn't have picked Gabby's Golden Girl if I had 10 more chances. I just didn't see it coming. I accurately had the chalk, Justwhistledixie in the Place spot but not much else went right.



Race 10 BEL: The Manhattan Handicap Grade I: 1 1/4 miles on Turf for 3 YO and Up.



Another race, same results. I tied my handicap to Cowboy Cal who took the lead at the top of the stretch and then faded. So we moved along to the main event.



Race 11 BEL: The Belmont Stakes Grade I; 1 1/2 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YO.



The Turk tried to make a good bet for the Appleton Turk, two $10 win bets on Dunkirk and Charitable Man. I should have added her money to the Superfecta bet that I made and we would have made some serious hay!

All in all it was a good day of handicapping for the Turk. I hope my fellow bloggers who were there had a great time.



Turk Out!