The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Stakes G1 at Saratoga

Seeking the Soul: Coady Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today reading the $750 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.

This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007.  Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate.  This is going to be an excellent betting race.  There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.

You'll find Scratches and Changes here.  You'll find the weather here, and by the looks of it we should have a dry, fast dirt track.

Let's get after it!




It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today.  I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win.  Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart.

Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles  Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018



Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.



Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts.  One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt.

Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite.  In his last ten races he's one three times:  an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017.  The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park.  Woof!  He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131.  Here he was in good form at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.



Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well.  An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.

Irap: WSVX FM

The nearly $3.0 Million dollar earning Gunnevera will be coming late, but will he have enough tactical speed early on to be well positioned.  That's something the handicapper must consider.  I'm betting against him to win and I'm not even sure I'll cover him to Place (and yes, that should all but assure he does win!)

I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti.    I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all).

Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.


West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.



If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.

Razorback Handicap G3:  1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed




Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty.  Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me.

Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out.  While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles.  5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.




While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta.

In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1  at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has  big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year.  I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.



Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence.  Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K. 





Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs.  Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).



I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line.  Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.

 I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw.  I tossed Imperative as I  think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes.  I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts.  I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.

So what to do with all this?

I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets.  I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward.  My early thoughts are:

$1 Exacta:  10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7  $15

That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge Over Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)

That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea.  This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap.  Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.


Thanks for reading, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 142nd Preakness Stakes

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog. While most of my hardcore, degenerate readers know my story, I'll quickly tell you about me and this blog for the 3 times per year readers on the Triple Crown Days.  I'm a 50 something numbers geek, with limited social skills, no friends and I live with three cats, a big dog, a Korean (AKA Little Turk) and my wife of 25 years. I fixate on two very distinct things:  Who can win (the Base Handicap) and Value Betting.  I like exotics and Multi Race Pick 3-4-5's.  That's all you really need to know!

This edition of The Preakness is the sort of race that makes me work both sides of the coin very hard.  I have a base handicap that tells me Always Dreaming and Classic Empire are clearly better than the other horses by most measures: Class, top speed, off track speed, fast dirt track win percentage.  That said, ehh, I'm not that excited to bet a 4-5 Boxed Exacta.  It just doesn't do it for me and my desire to find value.  Let's take a look instead at the base handicap and see if we can construct a bet strategy that is reasonably priced and offers real value if the ticket scores.  Let's get after it!







I've tossed from consideration three horses.  It's important to understand that I'm not saying these horses will finish last.  I'm saying you can't cover every runner, or I should say you can, but the tickets would be very pricey.  For example, a 7 horse tri-box will cost $420 for a 42 bet.  That's just  a very bad bet.  Alternatively, a $2 Tri with a single horse on top and 3 horses covered in Place and Show  will set you back $12.  I'm not your mother, but betting irresponsibly isn't going to increase your chances of winning.  There is nothing cool about the magic trick of turning a $350 bet into $190 of winnings.  

I'm generally of the opinion that Always Dreaming will win this race.   I think the fun thing is who finishes 2-5.  I've been handicapping the better part of 30 years and I'll tell you honestly and with no shame: I dunno!  This is a pretty even field of even quality and quite a few one run horses that if they get loose could either nip the wire or just be going forward while others are dropping. Looking at Lee, Gunnevera, Hence, Senior Investment, Cloud Computing and Multiplier will most likely make one big run at the top of the stretch.  Conquest Mo Money, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire should be on the pace.

So, I tossed three horses like I started to say before I rambled off into a tangent.  Multiplier is the one I'm concerned about, but again, you can't cover everyone.  I intend to build a series of exotic bets, mostly centered (but not all) around Always Dreaming singled with the rest of this six horses in some combination of finish.  Sorry to disappoint, but I have no "wiseguy" insights to offer with this group.  My strong suggestion is to watch the track today and see how the speed is carrying.  More likely than not Always Dreaming will have no problem carrying speed if his trip is fairly clean.  I sorta like an Always Dreaming OVER 6 OVER 6 for $60 but that isn't very value so I have to get to a 1 X 3 X 3 and it's just going to be some combination, and if forced to choose:  Always Dreaming 4 OVER 3-9-6 OVER 3-9-6 (Hence, Looking at Lee, Gunnevera).  

I'm most likely not settling on my bets until the post parade.  Whatever you do, have fun and don't bet the mortgage or the kid's school tuition.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby G1 plus Video Review of Prep Races

Classic Empire: Photo by Rick Samuels with appreciation for its use

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

Kentucky Derby is such a big, fun, and inclusive day on the race calendar.  Friends and family that never talk horse racing suddenly stop their lives each first Saturday in May for a chance at picking the winner in the fastest two minutes in sports.  Little do they realize how many other great racing days their are in the calendar year, but I don't blame them: The sport is not really run by anyone.  In my own home stake, political appointed hacks make most of the decisions.  The sport is at the mercy of track owners who only care about their small slice of life, the mostly 1% 'ers who own the horses for their own reasons, and that leaves the fans a sport that is poorly promoted, contracted and not grown, and feel good moments squandered. If your looking for answers, you are reading the wrong blog!  This horse racing fan has no magic dust or great ideas other than to repeat over and over again that a single central body should be in charge and make decisions for the best of the sport.

For my readers, you know how little I pay attention to three year old prep races.  To me, it creates an opportunity that comes with some downside.  The opportunity is I am free of the hype.  I didn't even watch the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race that closely, as I dislike 2 YO racing more than I like 3 YO racing.  The names mean almost nothing to me.  When I sat down with the DRF Formulator Past Performances (which I set up to grey out horses not within 1 length of the lead at first call and times given in fractions at the different calls) I had a true beginners min in Zen terms.

Twenty horses: sensory overload.  I miss the days when these Triple Crown babies had 10+ starts by this time.  The more ink the better.  The downside of my stance is you can miss stuff when you pay no attention to media reports.  Little things, important things, like Girvin's quarter crack issues.  So, one qualifier on my position is I will try to read clocker reports (I won't pay for the service even though the best ones are at a premium and deserve to be paid), I'll pay attention to some serious horse player twitter feeds, and I'll avoid Bloodhorse, DRF and ESPN fluff pieces about the connections, a sick kid, etc. etc. etc.  I love sick kids, would give anything to help them, but I'm a sucker for sentimental things like that and sentimentality and handicapping should never mix.

Anyway's, I don't plan on rambling too much today.  I'll get 1000X my normal hits today and all anyone wants to see is if this idiot has the same picks as they do.  Let's start with watching all the major prep races just to get a feel.  The track is expected to be sloppy and the weather not very good. My base handicap downplays the track conditions a bit but its a wildcard.


Arkansas Derby





Florida Derby




UAE Derby




Spiral Stakes




Wood Memorial




Louisiana Derby




Sunland Derby





Bluegrass Stakes







Another thing this handicapper does his best to avoid until he makes his own decisions are Morning Lines.  It's just another handicappers bias.  When you handicap as much as I do, you start to gain an appreciation for the people you think are really good, and the people you wonder what game are they watching.  Out of respect, I don't talk about the good or the bad ones.  The overriding point is make your own morning line based on your own handicapping.  Use the toteboard as a way to see what the betting public thinks.  On a day like today, a lot of dumb money plays the track.  Be smart, place your bets near post time, watch the moves on the tote after the post parade, and be smart:  Why chase favorites on a Win bet, or worse, a Show bet (that was for you Mother Turk).

I cam away picking a group of horses that I will be playing in the Super High Five, my favorite handicapper challenge.  I have 10 horses who have a shot at the Top 5 spots.  If you boxed 10 horses for the Super Hi-Five it would cost for a $2 bet more money than most luxury SUVs.  You have to build a matrix and hope for the best.  Someone outside of this top 10 will screw up the works, but again, that's why its called gambling.

In layers I like Classic Empire, Hence and Irap   followed by Always Dreaming and McCraken, followed by Sonneteer, Irish War Cry, Gormley, Thundersnow and Girvin.

In my expected to screw me up group are the C+ horses led by Gunnevera, Practical Joke and Patch.

I won't bore you too much with the why's and why not's, just a few thoughts:

• Pioneerof the Nile's son, Classic Empire, was a beast in my favorite prep, the Arkansas Derby.  Trainer Mark Casse has been building towards the pinnacle of racing for sometime. Not sure I like Leparoux up but I'll defer to smarter minds. 
• I love how the O'Neill/Reddam team were flat at Sunland Derby and came right back in the Blue Grass, so much more relevant again on dirt.  Irap, a Tiznow son, could surprise.  
• Calumet Farms is finally relevant again.  I wish they still had the devil red silks, but you can't have everything.  I loved Hence at the Sunland Derby and I like him here.
• Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming is a serious contender.  Don't take my positioning the wrong way.  He could easily win, but I'm contrarian by nature. 
• Sonneteer is a long shot I like to be moving forward at the 1/8 pole instead of backwards.  He may bring some real value in 5th or 4th spot.  
• Gunnevera will eat a lot of dirt in his face today with his running style.  My making a gamble that he doesn't have the will to finish strong by the end but the downside risk he makes the top 5.  

There's 20 horses; You can't pick everyone in your exotics, you can't cover and box the field, well you can, it just wouldn't be reasonably financially.  Have fun picking horses.  Just like we say at our Catholic Church, we hope you enjoy it enough to come more than Christmas and Easter, and I hope to see you reading the Turk more often than Derby Day.  

So what is the Turk going to do?  

Have fun

Bet responsibly

I'm going to bet the Pick 3 (Race 10-11-12).  If your new to the sport, these multi-race bets are a fun way to enjoy the track experience and quite frankly you can be pretty successful even as a novice if you cover the favorites and throw a value horse in as well.  Don't waste too much money chasing the big exotics like a Super Hi-5.  The Trifecta and Exacta bets will pay well, especially if a value horse sneaks in .  

If I was betting, here is two versions of a Super High 5 and  Exacta bet.  I'm partial to the $48 exacta and the $134 Super High Five (a power ball ticket with a much smaller pot). 

Turk Out!