The Nomination Is In: The Fountain of Youth and The Kentucky Derby Point Race Update

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season is over and today begins the Kentucky Derby Championship Series.

My criticism of the current system is that the prep season rewards are too meager, with the leaders after 19 races accumulating only 24 points while today the winners of the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes will each receive 50 points and the Place Horse will receive 20. What it does do it motivate the winners of the big 2 YO races to start running sooner, in February, and maybe, just maybe, it adds one additional start before the Derby for some of these runners, and 2 additional starts for fringe horses in the field.

I like the concept, I just think it will need tweaking. I would like there to be real motivation for trainers to run the horses more often and one tweak I'd suggest is a veto on gate draw for the Derby: If you collect X number of points and you started Y number of races during the Prep and Championship Series, a Trainer should be able to Veto Gate Position 1 or 20, or some variation of this, to improve his odds further and reward him for running. Maybe I'm missing something, but how does Winning Colors make history in this arrangement, how does Eight Belles get her chance? Maybe this closes the door on fillies, as while a filly does draw interest, a dead filly does not. I'm also not down with the suits at CDI deciding which races are in the circle of trust and which ones are not. I'm OK with most of the races they selected, but there should be some slots that rotate every year. I dunno, I'm the Turk, a hack handicapper and not one of the deep thinkers of the sport in general. For real talented voices in horse racing, I strongly urge you to read some of the top writers at Turf or Hello Race Fans!






This weekend we have the first two Championship Series Races. Most horses have two starts left before the Kentucky Derby. In the 1st Leg of the Championship Series, there are 95 points for the taking in a start, with the Show Horse gathering 10 points. In the Second Leg of the Series which begins about 5 weeks from now with The Florida Derby, there are 170 points available in a start, with Place gathering 40 and Show getting 20. A Show finish in one of the Big Races (Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes) and as few as 4 points or a Place in the Prep Season races, and I think you are safely in the Top 20. Let's assume the top ten in the list keep hitting the board, from Shanghai Bobby to Super Ninety Nine, then valuable scraps will be left over for between 14 and 25 other horses to fight for.

I've handicapped The Fountain of Youth Stakes and will be watching the Risen Star today as well. As a fan who doesn't care much about 2 YO's, by following the Prep Race Season, I feel like I am more in tune with this year's key 3 YOs, so in this way the Race Series and Points Method has enhanced my interest.

Let's get after this!



I think Violence (pictured above) is good. I respect the field that he defeated in the Hollywood Park Cash Call Futurity G1 but I don't know that he is 9-5 good until I see it again. I'm going to bet against him and my base handicap supports this by favoring Cerro (Ire), a typical Team Valor International runner; improving Beyers, a cutback of a 1/16 off his last race win at GP. His pilot, Castellano, jumps off for Violence, and that gives journeyman Rocco a chance.

I have Violence in the Place spot but he's talented enough to Win, and a wildcard enough to finish out of the money. I dunno and that's why its called gambling. I'm playing the odds, perhaps against my gut, and I'll cover him in the Top 4 in all spots.

My next five are a jumble and I think very little separates them. Falling Sky and He's Had Enough seem to be the best of the bunch but they have to show it.

Today's a good race day and I'll be back tomorrow to update the standings and talk about implications.

Enjoy! Turk Out.

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Volume 1 PLUS The Derby Point Standings and Prep Race Results

We are back. I'm not sure what the popular demand is, but Steve and the team at Wire Players have reassembled a collection of experts from the horse racing world to provide insight into the three year old crop as the chase for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby heats up. Why they want the Turk's involvement, folly possibly, but I'm glad to be a part of the crew again.

People who read the Turk know how I ignore two year old racing almost completely. That's not driven by some moral objection to these youngsters running, its just not my bag. I like to see 10 races on a past performance, I like to see the handicap division runners with 20 starts, I like the data that the older horses provides as a handicapper. As a race fan, I like to fall in love with horses and follow them. That generally doesn't start until the Kentucky Derby for 3 year olds because I just don't get that misty eyed about young runners until they do it a few times.

I've warmed up to the changes implemented this year regarding the point system and the rules regarding entry into the Derby. If you haven't followed it closely, you can get caught up on how the system works here.

It's early: the system is geared heavily towards what would be the second, third and fourth starts of the year for most of these three year olds. The nomination group for Triple Crown Races 369 horses, down from 450 in 2007. It's never about quantity, American Racing needs a quality injection, and with youth we have hope.

Anyway, things are about to heat up. I say that as a massive storm barrels up the Eastern seaboard and coats Turk Central in a thick coating of snow. May will come, May will come.

Turk Out!

Kentucky Derby Point Race Standings

Like it or not, the 20 spots in the starting gate for the 139th Kentucky Derby will not be based on graded stakes earnings as it has since 1986, but instead points earned in 36 races designated by a completely unbiased (cough) Churchill Downs Incorporated.

I'm on record as liking the concept; I like the idea of a roadmap towards the starting gate. I'm content with watching it happen this year and I think that some really interesting tweaks can be added to the system over the next several years if the men in grey flannel suits can get a bit outside the box. Right off the bat, one of my beefs has been a 2 YO wins a $1.0 Million dollar pot in one of racino races or the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the super genius trainers start to conjure up how little they can start their charge before the first Saturday in May. The next tweaks should reward the runners who take part in the most prep races with a weighted ball advantage at the starting gate draw.

Anyhow, before tomorrow's Smarty Jones we are 12 races into the chase, with 7 left in the Prep Season before we reach the more lucrative Championship Series.

It's realistic that a horse will win the Prep Season with as few as 34 points. The first leg of the Championship Series awards 50 points for a win and 20 for Place, which makes the value of the Prep Season fairly poor. The second leg of the Championship Series is worth 100 Points for the win and only 40 points for Place, so you could argue that current prep leaders Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents need only win one more race and they are cemented. I think some tweaks to the number of points per race may be justified as well.

We'll keep making suggestions and then summarize them after the Kentucky Derby is run.






My beloved Buffalo Sabres just kicked the snot out of the Flyers. All is right in the world again. Have fun race fans, Turk Out!

By the way, I have skipped all coverage of the Eclipse Awards on purpose: I think these sort of popularity contests are a joke and I'd rather see the awards based on points just like this. How Frankel can't be Horse of the Year, I'm still waiting for a sane answer on that. Joke, not to be taken seriously.