The Nomination Is In: The Race 8-9-10 Pick 3 at Saratoga including the Alabama and Sword Dancer

Royal Delta-Alabama Stakes Winner

I've thrown the white towel in this year.  I'm not handicapping the Arlington Millions Day card.  I play Arlington quite a bit, and I do very well both on the turf and the fake dirt, but I have had some of my most horrid, absolute abysmal handicaps over the past few years on Millions Day.  I've embarrassed the Turk brand, and worse, I soiled The Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, with wretched handicapping.  I am taking a break from that sort of emotional baggage this year as I think it clouds my ability to handicap dispassionately.  That said, I choose Saratoga, a track I don't play especially well, and I was a bit underwhelmed and disappointed to find a a six horse Alabama Stakes, made worse by the early scratch already of Tell a Great Story. 

I'm mostly a race fan today, as the cards I've spent time studying don't thrill the degenerate gambler side of me, but for a bit of thrill the Pick 3 seems like a low risk way to feel a bit of engagement with today's races.  I handicapped the Sword Dancer for the nice folks at the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, and I'm going to bookend that race with an Optional Claimer and the Alabama.  I think I'll single Princess of Sylmar unless Fiftyshadesofhay is something much better than the 2-1 morning line dropped on her. 

Anyways, let's get after this!





As a betting race, the 8th is a neat race; big field, nice quality, and a dividing line between the talent and the filler.  Royal Blessing and Master Wesley seem like the best of the bunch, 4 YO's, good barns, and they still have a career ahead of them if they step forward.  I'm five deep on my Pick 3 for this race but just lazy.  Ampersand and Kathy's Kitchen I'd put above Lead Singer but Lead Singer represents some value if Trainer John Kimmel and Maragh, up, can build on the 3 YO's last race and bullet work. 

In the Sword Dancer, which I blogged in depth just yesterday, I think I only look to Big Blue Kitten and Boisterous. 

Have fun race fans on a full day of top flight racing action. 

More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery.  Animal people understand this. From Facebook today

"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"

Thank you from the Turk in advance

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Sword Dancer Grade 1 at Saratoga

The Sword Dancer Grade 1: A Handicap by The Turk and the Little Turk.

Friends, thank you for reading and welcome to this handicap written for the Thorofan Handicapping Corner.  The Thorofan is an organization of racing fans who cater to the racing fans.  It's run by some great folks and is spreading every year.  If you are like me and crave a bit of horse talk on a regular basis, then you will find all the social interaction you need here. 

The handsome man and equine is none other than J. Elliot Burch and the 1959 Horse of the Year, Sword Dancer.  Burch, a Hall of Fame Trainer, just recently died in 2011 but he belongs a part of every Saratoga summer, as his charges won many a race just off of Union Avenue. Burch is a four time winner of the Travers Stakes, a feat alone that reserves reverent remembrance.  I personally remember Sword Dancer as a two time Woodward Stakes winner, a Travers winner, a Belmont winner, and Sire of Damascus, winner of so many races except the Kentucky Derby, conditioned by yet another Hall of Fame trainer, Frank Whitely Jr. 


The Turk likes turf racing.  The pace scenario is typically understandable on the races between 1 3/16 and 1 1/2 miles: stay close, keep a clear lane, run like hell at the end.  You'll get your occasional maverick who wants to charge out to a 20 length lead and wire the field, but most of these races run the same way.  My keys have always been to identify class, late turn of foot and who's done it before. 

Races as investments are risk/reward: You put your investment capital on the line and you expect a return. I'll save diatribes about take out for others as I accept take out as a market condition that I just have to factor in.  One thing I like about Turf Races of this kind usually is the field size, as anytime you lump 10-14 horses together there will be prices to be found, even on the cream of the crop. 

I think there is a clear dividing line with this field of 13, as my initial count has five possible victors and I expanded my exotic pool to eight.  I like to start by watching some video of the last race or two from some of the key contenders. 


6 July 2013; Monmouth:  1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf;  Grade 1 United Nations.  Big Blue Kitten, Teaks North





13 July Belmont Park;  1 3/8 Miles Turf Good- Grade 1 Man O' War; Twilight Eclipse, Al Khali, Optimizer, Exclusive Strike, Boisterous




I like Boisterous and Big Blue Kitten at the top of the chart and if forced to single I'd take Boisterous but that's pretty light chalk.

Boisterous is 15 of 21 in the money on Turf and 9 of his last 11 in the money.  No wins in only one try at this distance and one win on Saratoga grass.  This 6 YO Distorted Humor son, Trained by McGaughey and ridden by John Velazquez rattled off :46 2/5ths  on the grass here on August 5th.  Maybe likes softer grass and is carrying 123 pounds, so thoughts to consider. 

Big Blue Kitten is coupled with the veteran gelding Stormy Lord.  Winner of last two firm turf runs, the Grade 1 United Nations and a $100,000 OC at Churchill Downs two days before the Kentucky Derby.  The 5 YO is 15 of 16 lifetime in the money, 13 of 14 in the money on turf, a winner at Saratoga, but new to this distance. Trainer Chad Brown is winning 29% of turf starts and 31% of routes and he's 33% off the break. 

Optimizer, owned by Calumet Farms and trained by Wayne Lukas is a 4 YO English Channel son with 27 career starts already, 15 on turf, and 10 of 15 in the money with 5 wins over grass. He doesn't win much but he'll be competitive.  I'll be looking at him for Place and Show in the Trifecta. 

Twilight Eclipse still has something to prove.  While I can't embed because Gulfstream aren't as blogger friendly as they could be, check out the Pan American   at 1 1/2 miles from earlier this year.  I'm not sure he beat much except maybe Newsdad and Teaks North, but he looked good doing it with a perfect rail trip. Castellano, the pilot that day, is up again.  Seems to be improving for Tom Albertrani. 

Teaks North is a hard knocking horse I've always appreciated.  If I'm trying to keep the investment lower though I drop him out of the Trifecta, but I do it at my own peril.  Capable of Show or Last. 

Exclusive Strike is a 6 YO Smart Strike gelding, perhaps singularly the turf horse I've lost the most betting his offspring but I don't hold it against him!  It's class warfare with him, great in OC 16K affairs, not so much in this company. 

Nutello:  Your guess is as good as mine.  A Kentucky born Lemon Drop Kid son from Nutcase returns from France without much success in graded stakes action but 5 wins in 13 starts.  No idea.

Al Khali, London Lane (Colonial Turf Cup 2013 Winner) and Tannery (Ire) are mild threats for Show and little separates them from Teaks North, Exclusive Strike or Nutello. 




Judging from my numerous betting options I really don't know what I'm doing, but I'm writing this on Friday and I have time to check the Turf Conditions and Scratches and Changes.  The last part of my decision making process is always an honesty moment with myself:  Do I want to bet this?  I'm a horse tracker investor, so I'm not opposed to it, but what is my likely chance of success?  My ROI on American 12 panel racing is not very good and in fact a money loser over the past four seasons, albeit with only a sample size of about 25 races.  Ultimately it will come down to the tote board and if Boisterous and Big Blue Kitten can stay closer to 3 or 4 to one each.  I will keep working my options until I get my two dollar investment between 30-50 dollars. 

Good stuff friends, as always, have fun and don't bet what you need to live.  If you have a problem, get some help, there is plenty out there.

More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery.  Animal people understand this. From Facebook today

"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"

Thank you from the Turk in advance

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Arlington Million Grade 1

Hello friends and welcome to the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, a feature brought to you by the fine folks behind The Thorofan, an organization dedicated to horse racing fans and the racing experience. This is a big weekend of racing and the Thorofan has you covered with Paul Mazur handicapping The Beverly D at Arlington Park and the Sword Dancer and Alabama at Saratoga are being covered respectively by Laurie Ross and The Turf Queen respectively. Good stuff indeed!

I've watched all meet at Arlington for the stars to appear and I realize two issues are at play: A lack of star power horses in general, so fewer to go around, and with the purse funding at Arlington right now, horsemen are just staying away. Surely I thought that would change for Millions Day but I'm not so sure. While as a (thoro)fan I'd rather be getting excited about a star horse, I have a choice as a gambler to either bet this race or find another mark. I'm not here to discuss the quality of the runners or to bemoan the genetics of these equine athletes: I'm here to rank the likelihood of which horses can win, place,show or hit the exotic ticket and my secondary goal is to build a bet that will regard the gamble of my money. When I look at this field I see parity and uncertainty, and those are two key ingredients in big payouts. Let's get after this!

The weather looks like it will be good for Friday and Saturday. The Arlington turf course is world class and I consider it the best turf course in America. The Arlington website will provide you in depth information on the condition of the course and we'll assume the turf will be good to firm but not rock like. The track condition is updated around 12:30 ET over the weekends.

Eleven horses are entered with the 11 post horse Vertiformer cross entered in Saturday's Race 7, the $400,000 St. Leger. I'll assume he's going here for now but I think he's better suited at the shorter distance.

The Turk typically handicaps a race and then builds a bet based on the handicap. The concept that I developed for myself is to build a "base handicap" which is a predictive order of finish regardless of odds. I do this with as little "bias" as possible. I do not look at morning line odds nor do I read handicaps of the race before I build my base handicap. With the base handicap written I can spend the 20 odd minutes or so before a race goes to the starting gate and study the tote board odds looking for value within the base handicap. That strategy works well for me but I often overlook a key early step; After my first read of the Past Performance I earmark what sort of bet may be possible with the race. I've been a handicapper for a long time so this step doesn't take me long. With one quick glance I can pretty much determine if the race has exotic potential or if I'm scratching for even an opinion on the potential winners. Races like the Million or the Breeders' Cup Turf races attract foreign invaders which add a degree of difficulty with making the field apples and apples for comparison purposes. My first read of the Millions' Past Performances is murky; 3 first time lasix runners, 10 previous wins at AP, 19 wins at 10 panels, 3 millionaires, a bunch of sub 110 Racing Post Ratings, and in my mind two potential winners, Boisterous and Treasure Beach (GB). What I also took away from my review is the parity: I'm tossing out from the Top Four only two runners to begin with, Cherokee Lord and Vertiformer. I have given many of the field a B grade which slots them anywhere from Place to 4th. Ugh, The Ol' Turk has his work cut out for him but there are is nothing but potential with this race (The potential to look smart and win money and the potential to look like an fool-As a handicapper, especially one willing to give his selections this far in advance of the race, you have to have thick skin.)

The Arlington Million Grade 1: 1 1/4 Miles on Turf LH



After my full review I increased my toss list to four horses, adding Willcox Inn (3 of 4 at AP) and Crackerjack King (not the Sausage King in Chicago but he is a big deal in Italia). When I think about all the ways I can look dumb in public, none come to mind better than a toss horse winning a race i handicap. It happens, move on.

Adian O'Brien's Treasure Beach is the 4 YO son of Galileo has a win at Arlington but has not fared so well after returning two more times to North America. To me he represents the best of the invaders, a well traveled campaigner making his third effort since 14 July.


Boisterous is just an honest 5 YO son of Distorted Humor. He'll run his race and it will either be good enough or not. I like the switch to Lezcano and I think he's clearly in the win mix here.

I'm going to build several Exacta's based on my base handicap tied to these two potential winners.

A $2 Exacta (which I won't bet but just to give you some idea of the bet magnitude) of the #2 and #6 Boxed Over #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 and #8) is a $24 bet. There is a combination in there that makes sense at $24 but do yourself a favor, bet no more than a few selections and hope for the best.

Have fun with this friends; This is still a premiere race, even in a year where the premiere talent may not attended.

Turk Out!