The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Red Smith at AQA

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for inviting me to share my thoughts with you today.

This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap.  It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November.  You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers.  You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.  All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation:  Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and  very few of them I have played this year.  It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement)  to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.


The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion.  You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather Friday/Saturday is rainy and windy early Friday but then drying up.  I'm going to handicap like the turf is good.   I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today.  This is an inner turf race which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track.  The turns are tight and the field is big.   Can't say that helps the trips that can be expected.  The race does not start in the chute.

I don't consider myself a coward, but this field  scares me as a handicapper.  When I was a high volume handicapper, I would have spent very little time on this race and just handicapped the tote board, putting prices on the 3rd or 4th horses on the board the public liked, longer than 6-1.  As a turf race handicapper, there are a few variables here I'd rather not deal with: Trainer motivations for this race at this track, current condition of the runners, the track itself.   As far as motivation, its a $300K G2, so I get it, but these are not the stars of the barn, these are horses that were possibly considered from Breeders' Cup, didn't perform as expected in their final tune-ups, as well as grizzled veterans, and horses that tried dirt with limited success and this is next stop.  Variables.  Variables are what put the betting capital more and more at risk. 

So if you are going to invest time handicapping a race like this,  bet construction has to weigh on your mind pretty early.  Right off the bat I see two Chad Brown horses entered. I've seen this movie too many times and I know how it ends is my first thought, but upon close inspection, neither a iron pipe locks.  Highest Honor from the 1 post has one turf win, has fared poorly in big field/outside post positions last few out.  Balthus is hard to tell at the end of 4 YO campaign where his career is headed.  These two will get bet, deservedly so, but I'm thinking my bet construction is against them.  Can I find a foil?  Soldier Rising isn't exactly a dark horse, but I like him to win enough to single him, anchor my bets to a single and then look for value in my exacta and Tri plays.   Conditioner Clement cuts back just slightly from last time out, a 4th place finish here in G1 Turf Classic.  5-6 in the money in 2022. 12 of 14 in the money lifetime turf, 4 wins in 14 turf starts.  Ortiz is up.  

If I can anchor to Soldier Rising, what do I want in exacta? Of the two Brown horses I'd rather see neither finish in Place, but I might hedge with Balthus if I'm hedging and tote board odds favor the payout, otherwise I like a group of Astronaut, Temple, Mooney Love and Reigning Spirit, tossing Highest Honor. 

Astronaut is a 5 YO Quality Road, workmanlike. 6 of 13 lifetime starts Place or Show.  Conditioner Albertrani 0 for 32 Graded Stakes on rolling one year basis.  Temple ran past 23-1 odds into Place  last time out in the G3 marathon Sycamore at KEE.  4 of 6 starts in the money in 2022 for the gelded  son of Temple City.  Mooney Love is intriguing.  Mott's been looking for the right spot for the 4 YO with one North American win, a $115K N1X at SAR last time out in late July.  Finally Albert Stall's Reigning Spirit  won last start and is training well and could provide some late deep close sizzle.  

I'm guilty of grinding these types of affairs into dust with the handicapping effort I expend, but I'm going to keep this one simple:  I'm really betting against Chad Brown, tossing 4 of the 12, and building an exacta hinged around a singled Win for Soldier Rising.  

$2 Exacta 9 OVER 4-8-6-3 is $8.  Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In; The Red Smith G3 at Aqueduct

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for inviting me to share my thoughts with you today.

This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap.  It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November.  You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers.  You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.  All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation:  Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and quite frankly very few of them I have played this year.  It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement)  to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.

Let's get after it!


The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion.  You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather Friday/Saturday is for rains to end around 4 PM Friday and be pretty dry and windy after that.  The inner turf track is listed as Good right now, I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today.  This is an inner turf race, you'll find a press release here describing the new inner turf course which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track.  I have never played it, but take into account the turns are tight and the field is big.  The race does not start in the chute.

I'd argue the finish line is off a bit but you get the idea.






Sadler's Joy on pure class, current form, solid connections.  If I bet the race I'll most likely single him but I really need to get a feel from the tote board what the value proposition is on an exacta or trifecta.  Comes in off two solid Grade 1 efforts.  His late speed, tactical speed and the race distance should allow him to close but there is a chance he made be further back at the top of the stretch than he may normally like.  Again, based on tote board, I may cover him in place and show but a lot of that depends on the price I get for the four horse group I have in yellow.

I'll work backwards.  Red Knight is intriguing but may come to odds with a shorter price than morning line.  I love the Alvarado/Mott 25% strike rate at AQA with 72 starts.  Cutting back off a win.  Ran last year's edition of race (5th).




Roger Attfield's Tiz a Slam is training exceptionally well at Woodbine and ships in for this.  Late speed, cutback distance.  I don't care for gate position so his trip will have so much to do with his outcome.



I really like Nakamura.   Training well for Conditioner Motion, this 4 YO son of Motion's most famous trainee, Animal Kingdom (although Turk's favorite was Shared Account, daughter of another Turk Favorite Pleasantly Perfect- I think I digress) I like the late speed.  5 of 5 In the money in 2019 (one bump from 4th from DQ), 10 of 12 in the money over grass.

A million dollar purchase, Marzo has earned $263,000 in 16 lifetime races, the gelding goes for Trainer Michael Maker after bouncing through alot of barns.  7 of 9 in the money in 2019, 7 of 8 in the money over turf, alot of potential in the right hands and patience level.




Glorious Empire is of course dangerous.  8 YO deserves  to wind down soon and this may be the swan song.  6-1 morning line seems generous, I don't see him in the top four.

Red Right Hand is interesting.  6 of 7 in the money in 2019, early tactical speed, I question if the gelded son of Looking at Lucky is good enough, fast enough, to step forward and beat the top of my chart.  I don't think so, yet.

Another that is very interesting to me at the start of 2020 will be 4 YO Petit Fils (Fr) trained by Christophe Clement.  Clement is 9% first time Lasix, 10% First Time Trainer, 4% first time North America.  This talented gelding I will have my eye on next few starts.

This is purely a tote board play for me.  I feel pretty strongly that this is Sadler's Joy race to lose.  I will need to believe the tote board would reward me for his misfortune.  I'd love to see him get bet down to 6-5 or better and then I would come in with a box 1-3-4-8, a $2 Exacta for $24.

I think that's my base handicap and bet.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Jerome Grade 3 at Aqueduct

El Kabeir: Photo by Reed Palmer Churchill Downs

Happy New Years friends and readers of The Turk and Little Turk.  This is the eighth year of this blog, and while never a "must read", I like to think that it has been a consistent no bullshit, no ego, handicapping analysis forum.  I modeled the blog in the image of three of my handicapping heroes, Brad Free, The Happy Handicapper, Bob Summers, and Steve Crist. I'd be remiss in not adding an honorary fourth member to that list, as my Aunt Rosie was the one who introduced me to the horses way back on 19th Street on Saturday afternoons.  Aunt Rosie loved the grey horses and she'd like El Kabeir, pictured to the left winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Grade 2 at Churchill Downs in late November.  The running line reads "...lasted late, all out."  We like that sort of effort, and this Scat Daddy son may have a bright future.  In my eighth year I plan to continue to bring the heavy hitting handicapping that my demanding readers expect.

Let's get after this!




El Kabeir is a serious 3 year old right now.  4 of 5 in the money, a big price tag at sale, a Grade 2 winner, an accomplished and still peaking sire in Scat Daddy, this Florida bred still needs to learn to rate, still has much to do, and will be at the far outside on a funky track.  I like him but I'll be betting for him to get nipped at the wire.  So who then....

I'll be backing Ackeret, more of a sprinter but this is short enough for him I think and the barn goes 17% in sprint to routes.  Ortiz Up for Rodriguez and they clip along at 26% together at this track.  Feast or famine, not singling.

Nasa and Ostrolenka are in my next tier of runners.  Nasa has the races biggest Tomlinson number at 394 but has also been used as more of a sprinter. The PA bred is trained by John Servis who has no stakes wins in past 12 months and is 12% on sprint to routes.  Ostrolenka is a Musket Man son, a Turk favorite, and had a forgettable G2 Remsen last time out after having a good fall at Belmont.

Mini Cosmo, Royal Burgh and General Bellamy make up the rest of the contenders while I tossed Now We Are Free and Tencendur at my own peril.   I'm torn on what order, but I'm mostly favoring Mini Cosmo and General Bellamy and essentially have tossed Royal Burgh in Tri's.

So what to do with this?

My real interest here isn't ROI, it's Derby Trail reconnaissance.  That said, I think I see an opportunity to assemble a cheap investment that gives me a chance to check my handicapper and bettor boxes.

a $0.1 Super:  7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8= $11.20.  That's a bit too pricy for me for at ten center so.....

7-9 OVER 4-7-8-8 OVER 1-4-7-8 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8 =$6.00

and a Trifecta:  $0.50  4-7-8-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-7-8-9= $18

a bit pricey so....

Trifecta $1.00 7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-6-7-8=$22 or $11 for a $0.50 lottery ticket.

Have fun with it friends.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Cigar Mile at the Big A

Secret Circle:  Photo by Breeders' Cup Ltd

Thanksgiving week is one of my favorite racing weeks of the year.  Obviously not because the weather is ideal, or that there is much left to settle in horse racing prior to year end, but I'm off of work and I force myself to do something other than work for a few days in a row.

My job is very analytic, much like my approach to horse racing.  At work I may spend time thinking about average total costs or marginal costs as they relate to diminishing gains, but it's analytical numbers that help me make the best decisions possible for the physical mechanical equipment I'm charged with running optimally.

In horse racing, and in horse racing blogging, I choose not to bore my readers with the exact analytics I'm employing.  I've read blogs that are very analytical driven and I don't want to be that blogger.  In business at least I can do analysis in hindsight of my decisions and learn something that is typically concrete in nature.  In horse racing, not so much.  You can apply hard fought analytics to these 1,200 pound animals all you like and about the only thing you can be sure of is the overall general horse betting public will still hit 33% winners applying no analytics and if you are honest with yourself, you'll be hard pressed to not incrementally beat that figure.  This blog isn't interested in picking winners primarily, we are building exotic bets, un-boxed, built on a matrix of horse order of finish possibilities.  The goal of my horse racing activity is 0% ROI.  0% Turk, WTF?  Yes, if I were to break even I'd be happy because at this point in my life, I'm not gambling horses for economic profit. Do I want losses?  Absolutely not, Mrs. Turk wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  I'm a positive ROI guy who applies analytic, really statistical and mathematical possibility analysis, to my bet strategy after developing a base handicap of possibilities.

This blog is a reflection of my passion and also my ambivalence to horse racing.  A sport that is teetering on irrelevance, with no real plan forward, while physical capital like Hollywood Race Track is watched to be sold off as scrap, where the beautiful Hialeah can't get thoroughbreds back on the track, where for all but a few days Arlington is irrelevant, I find it hard to care.  It's a defense mechanism not caring because there is almost nothing an individual or a collective group of racing fans can do.  We aren't what drives the sport and we have no voice.  This blog lives because no matter what happens, these animals have been under my skin for almost my entire life and I find true relaxation staring at a past performance.  Why isn't Trackus available at every track?  Why is access to data so expensive and almost off limits to the casual fan? No one person cares enough to move this sport forward.

I digress.  This has never been a popular blog.  It's a labor of love done by The Turk for diminishing numbers of readers.  I can't remember the last time I received a legitimate comment.  Outside of the Triple Crown season, my blogs numbers are putrid.  I leave the deep issues for others and I will continue to do what I do, not because I give a hoot about web traffic, but because this beautiful mathematical game still thrills me and because my ROI stays positive.  Good days, bad days for sure (namely any Thorofan Handicappers Corner post) but relaxing and stimulating nonetheless.

I'm going to add some new features to my blog next year.  I may even add more topics of interest to me: a late 40's gentlemen's fashion choices, hardware selections, watches, everyday carry, electronics, whatever may interest other socially disinterested, work-a-holic bald fellas who like horses and fine craftsmanship.

Anyways, let's get after this!






Lots of options in this one.  I'm going with Vyjack on top, but what I'm really saying is even if Baffert is shipping in Secret Circle, I'm betting against these Breeders' Cup contestants.

Vyjack is 3 of 4 at the Big A, and his Wood Memorial Show was against some solid class.   Won G2 Kelso last time out.




Rodriguez/Ortiz 31% at Aqueduct on 113 tries.

Itsmyluckyday, a  4 YO Lawyer Ron, one of my favorite horses ever (Rest in Peace), has been training regular and steady since a Show in the Kelso which followed a win in the Woodward.  First Big A effort.  2 of 4 at this distance, 8 of 16 on fast dirt, 13 of 16 in the money on fast dirt, 4 of 7 in 2014, 6 of 7 in the money in 2014.  Trainer Plesa 16% off the break.  Plesa/Lopez are 26% together in 333 tries over past year.  Lots to like and will be within 2 lengths the whole way.

Private Zone was 33-1 last year when he almost shocked the race.  He is boom or bust here but I think he'll run well to hit the Show or Exotic spot.  I guess I'm being a hypocrite as I have him higher than some BC runners I'm penalizing.

Bourbon Courage and Secret Circle I guess have a reason to call me a hypocrite.  Secret Circle, 5 YO already, has won two Breeders' Cup Sprints and Placed a third.  Not too shabby.  5 straight efforts at 6f but he seems to want to stretch out.  Interesting that Baffert brings him in for this with options at Del Mar.  Bourbon Courage has 1 win in last 12 races  but is 8 of 12 in the money as well. No wins in 3 starts at the distance, rang off a :46 4/5ths at 4f bullet last time on track.

Regally Ready (Can he really be 7?  I find myself exclaiming that alot this week!) is a really versatile horse. 6 wins in 9 2014 starts.  Only 3 of 37 career starts on dirt.  He may be in a great spot on the track to come hard and free at the end.  Beware!

I'm tossing three: Big Business, the other Eddington son along with Secret Circle, who I respect but you can't cover all in my world, Transparent and Noble Moon.

As the race is two hours to post, I'm going to publish these thoughts and keep thinking about bet strategy.  The track should be good and the weather OK albeit cold.

I'm thinking something along the lines of this:

$1 Super:  2-4 OVER 1-2-4-6-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8-9 OVER 1-6-7-8-9 for $168.  It's too rich and I have to make some harder choices but its a starting point

Good Luck

Turk Out!

The Nominations Are In: January 17, 2011: The Jimmy Winkfield and The Smarty Jones for 3 YOs

From our friends at Wikipedia, James "Jimmy" Winkfield (April 12, 1882 - March 23, 1974) was a Thoroughbred jockey and horse trainer from Kentucky, best remembered as the last African American to ride a winner in the Kentucky Derby.

Winkfield was born in Chilesburg, Kentucky and began his career as a jockey in 1898 at age sixteen. He was suspended for four years after just one race for his involvement in a four-horse accident at the starting gate. However, he returned in 1900 to ride a horse named Thrive in the Kentucky Derby, finishing third. He rode the race again in 1901 and 1902, winning on His Eminence and Alan-a-Dale respectively - in 1901 alone, he won 220 races. He competed in his final Derby in 1903, finishing second on Early.

Later that year, Winkfield emigrated to Russia where he was greeted as a celebrity and in the name of the Czar Nicholas II competed at racetracks all over Europe. He won the Russian Oaks five times, the Russian Derby four times, the Czar's Prize on three occasions, and the Warsaw Derby twice. The Russian Revolution caused him to leave the country in 1917 and he moved to France where he resumed racing, scoring numerous wins including the Prix du Président de la République, Grand Prix de Deauville, and the Prix Eugène Adam. He retired as a jockey at age fifty having won more than 2,500 races then began a second successful career as a horse trainer.

Winkfield lived on a farm near the Hippodrome de Maisons-Laffitte (racetrack) in Maisons-Laffitte on the outskirts of Paris. He remained there until fleeing the German occupation of France during World War II. After the war, he eventually returned to the farm at Maisons-Laffitte where he lived until his death 1974.



In 1960, Jimmy Winkfield made an appearance at the Kentucky Derby to celebrate 60 years since his historic victories. In 2004 he was inducted posthumously into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame. The Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack is run in his honor.

In 2005, the United States House of Representatives passed a resolution honoring Jimmy Winkfield. The full details can be read here at the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.

As for Smarty Jones, well Smarty was a darn fine horse that won a couple of races you might have heard of in 2004, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

OK, what do we have here today? A couple of three year old non graded stakes, just to get a feel for the talent pool belong Uncle Mo, which, with just a few exceptions, hasn't lit the house on fire yet, but The Turk's a patient man and it isn't just about the Triple Crown, its a long season and you have to do your homework. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct Race 8: The Jimmy Winkfield and Oaklawn Park Race 8: The Smarty Jones.



I don't know what do do with these short fields and the talent gaps that exist inside of them. I don't want to lament too many racing days and not enough quality horseflesh, but that's what brothers gotta do. That said, I'm keeping my betting action light and I truly believe you have to handicap and analyze constantly to learn who's out there running, so here we are.

At Aqueduct, a six horse field competes in the Jimmy Winkfield. A Rick Dutrow trained horse for Jay Em Ess Stables, Rift, seems to be the class of the group. A son of Not for Love, C. Velasquez is up today. In his previous three starts he's been in the money each time and has one win on the inner dirt.

Royal Currier is a son of Red Bullet, winner of the Preakness and the Gotham. Training nicely and comes in with two straight wins and 6 of 6 lifetime in the money. I like him for a value win bet.

Fort Hughes is a son of Henny Hughes, winner of the King's Bishop, the Vosburgh, The Champagne and Hopeful and a place in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and career earnings totalling $1.124 MM. The Darley Stables Colt, trained by K. Mclaughlin with E. Castro up, starts for the third time and has two solid previous efforts.

Trainer Levine and jock D. Coen have 23% of their races at the Big A. Bambi Bound, coming off a good 6f inner track effort in early December has a chance at minor prize, but pay attention for future restricted NYS bred action.

And at Oaklawn, a Harlan's Holiday son, Grant Jack, comes in off a win for Trainer Bret Calhoun, something he wins with 31% of the time after 212 tries. Harlan's Holiday won over $3.6 MM in his career with big wins in the Donn, Florida Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes and I like this horse as he stretches out further.

Archarcharch is a son of Arch, sire of Blame and a Grade I winner. Comes in off two solid and improving efforts for trainer Fires and jock Court. Fires stats are pedestrian at sprints/routes (7%), won last starts (0%) and just 10% of routes. He also saddles Bluegrass Bull who I don't think much of right now.

Again, I'm watching and learning more that betting. This type of legwork during the season helps you go for the bigger scores as the season rolls on.

And always, study the race charts and deconstruct your handicaps in a post race analysis. The following was two stakes from Santa Anita over the weekend, The Sham and San Fernando.



In the Sham, Tapizar struck the lead at the 1/4 pole and never gave it up. he never had to deal with any sustained pressure from Uncle Sam, the bettors second choice that I wisely discounted. Clubhouse Ride was clearly second best and the rest were an afterthought.

In the San Fernando, pre race I wondered in Mike Smith could make a difference with a horse content to win minor awards and it seemed that he did. Indian Firewater paid $13.00 for the winning effort. I discounted the chalk down, Thisskyhasnolimit and he weakened when he shouldn't have. Tweebster gave a good accounting and I'll look for his run back but I won't not so much with Haimish Hy.

Enjoy the holiday and enjoy the Eclipse Awards as well. I think these types of award shows are a joke, but I want to see if common sense prevails on Horse of the Year or not from curiosity standpoint. Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: January 1, 2010: The NYRA Pick 4 including the Count Fleet Stakes

Yeah, it looks JUST like this. the glamorous people, wandering up the driveway, to watch the Count Fleet Stakes in mildy inclement weather. Come on down and check it out. Well, not really, but there are construction trailers and signs pointing to a different future and the old barn ain't too bad and when you get hungry, check out Don Peppe around the corner for some great food.

Happy New Year Friends and Readers of the Turk and Little Turk. The holiday season is always special, and New Years Day is once last chance to relax and recharge the batteries before the grind begins anew. I took a gander over at Santa Anita, but a five horse field in The Robert Frankel Grade II and a not so interesting rest of the card turned my eyes back to the NYRA Pick 4 at Aqueduct and a not so exciting claimer and maiden race that are intermixed with the Count Fleet and ChampagneforAshley Stakes. Let's roll with it!

Aqueduct Pick 4 Race 6-7-8-9



The Count Fleet has been contested by horses of good caliber, with Haynesfield and Smarty Jones just two notable alumni. Today's edition has a few potential stakes winners; Pants on Fire with two time winner R. Dominguez up, comes in with a near win on the track and a trainer in Kelly Breen who wins 24% of 2nd races off 45 day layoffs.

Rush Now is a stakes winner with a 38% winner combo at the Big A of Rose up and Anthony Dutrow conditioning. Dutrow's stats are pretty gaudy and I won't rattle them all off but 25% stakes winners on 75 tries is sweet.

J J's Lucky Train and Arthur's Tale, especially Authur's Tale, look strong and if you want more than a chalky taste in your mouth,the son of Bernadini may be a good direction to look.

In Race 8, the ChampagneforAshley Stakes, three horses stand out: Eminent Tale has been off since mid November and training regular at Aqueduct. The modestly bred runner starts for Dick Dutrow Jr. who wins 28% of 2nd off 45 starters and 26% of his dirt races.

Beau de Beaupre comes in winning two in a row, including a stake at Aqueduct.

Sky Music is a Pletcher/Dominguez joint looking for a bounce back after a last race erratic effort as the heavy chalk.

I'm pushing the time for this sequence, so have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 20, 2010: The Aqueduct/NYRA Late Pick 4

That handsome son of Golden Missile is Golden Moka, a crazy 8 month layoff horse who never went past six furlongs before shocking the Canadian horse racing Triple Crown Series with a win at the Turk's home track, Fort Erie. Freshened after a dull effort in late September, and not my chalk here, but clearly capable and a great story for horse racing and his connections.

Golden Moka is carrying top weight will be taking on a nice field of speed in the featured race at Aqueduct and the top race in the Pick 4, the Grade III Discovery Handicap. Let's get after it!

Aqueduct Late Pick 4: Race 6 Post Time 2:48 ET



The weather should be fine but keep your eye on ths scratches/changes as there are alot of "also eligibles" in the two turf races. The dirt should be fast and the turf should be firm.

For my presumptive Pick Four I'll be singling Kid's Kate in the Foil. In the Discovery Handicap for a seven horse field I like the match ups quite a bit. I'm backing Shadwell Stables' Al Muhatsib but Teaks North and Dominant Jeannes will be forces to reckon with.

I'll do my job as a blogger a bit better tomorrow and actually say something about these runners in my post race analysis, and for now will have to let my chart speak for itself.

And finally an overdue review of my losing effort at Churchill Downs Last week. While The Turk picked three of four winners in the Pick Four, it was a dull and uninspired effort. Always be honest with yourself and take days off when you need to.



Stage Magic was 9 out of 9 with with and 6th of 9 with the bettors and he undid my handicap. Moving on. I know Sister Turk, Calvin was up at Churchill Downs.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 17, 2010: The Aqueduct Pick 4 including the Distaff Handicap

That good looking sire to the left is an A.P. Indy son, father of Pashito the Che and yesterday's Distaff Handicap winner, Tar Heel Mom, Flatter.

The Turk found success yesterday with the Aqueduct card. On a sloppy sealed track we "assembled" a Pick 3 and Pick 4 winner as well as an exacta and trifecta win and a handicap of the Distaff Handicap that we nailed the exact order of finish prerace. I made a point of discussing pre-race that the card at Keeneland with the Lexington and the Giant's Causeway, or Santa Anita with The Santa Barbara were more attractive but that I wanted to play the Big A card. Remember, don't be married to playing a particular place, look at the cards and pick the one you think you can win. Let's get after it!

Aqueduct Race 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 : The Pick Three and Pick 4 including the Distaff Handicap.



The bet construction followed my pre-race analysis nearly identical. Readers of the Turk know that I like to prepare my base handicaps and then use that base handicap to assemble my bets. Race 7's winner was the third shortest price on the board, Odessa's Hope. Our Special Effort had control to the top of the stretch but tired and with D. Cohen up, Odessa's Hope powered away to win by 2f.

Race 8 was won by the fourth lowest price, Positive Pitch. Two legs of the Pick Four were now in the books, won by my last horse included in the bet construction. Good stuff, let's keep going.

Race 9 was the Grade II Distaff Handicap. I really liked this field and this would have been a much more competitive field on a fast track, but it was sloppy and sealed and one horse stood out on the PP's as the one to beat on slop, a strong runner on her own, Tar Heel Mom. Taking control at the 1/4 pole, she fired off fractions of :22, :44 4/5, 1:10 1/5 and then brought it home at 1:24 2/5ths and was pressed just slightly at 1/2 pole and then not again. The Turk put all five starters in exact order pre race and I had a $2 exacta and $2 Trifecta win to show for it. Don't be influenced by hard talkin' handicapping types that would tell you that nailing chalky exactas and trifectas isn't worth the effort: $42.20 gross on $4 bet is always worth it!

Race 9 brought to an end the late Pick Three which the Turk took down for $119 on a $36 dollar bet. I took it but one race was left to complete my goal, a Pick Four win.

Race 10 almost got away from me. My pre-race chart excluded Ballast (Ire). It was a big field of 10 in a one mile turf claimer and as I wrote my blog entry I got more and more enamored with the experience of Ballast (Ire): This was the 9 YO geldings 47th Turf start, 25 of 46 in the money on Turf and recent steady turf efforts. 1 win in the last 13 efforts almost turned me away but I inserted and completed my day with the Pick 4 win. I did not expect Ballast to be the bettors top choice. In the vacuum of my office I had him slotted no better then 4th choice, but my top choices are still out there running as I type.

So what to take away from this? Today was about bet construction more then my ability to pick single winners of difficult races. The easiest of the bunch was the Grade II Distaff Handicap, and I nailed that exactly, a feat more rare then I would expect. The other three races were just the ol' Turk tossing most of the field and settling on the expected favorites and inserting some value as well. My rule of thumb is if I have three choices in a race, at least one has to be a reasonable price with a reasonable chance of victory. I got that and got decent payouts on my bets.

I'd be remiss to not mention Tuscan Evening (Ire). I first handicapped Tuscan Evening last November at Hollywood and was impressed, but what she did at Santa Anita this meet was really special. Congrats.

Have fun with your bet construction. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 17, 2010; The Aqueduct Late Pick 4 including the Grade II Distaff Handicap

The are several nice stakes races going on today: Keeneland's Lexington Stakes, The Charles Town Classic, and at Santa Anita, The Santa Barbara. Instead of handicapping those, I thought I'd dig in for a little gritty Aqueduct action for no other reason then I'm a New York fella at heart. That's Justwhistledixie, with her connections from West Point Thoroughbreds, and previous trainer K. McLaughlin. She's under the care of Bill Mott now, and she's at a longer price most likely today then she's been in awhile. A smallish but talented field of six after two early scratches greets her in the Grade II Distaff Handicap, the featured race today at the Big A. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct Race 7-8-9-10: The Pick Four



Gather your information before you start. You'll find the weather here and the scratches/changes here.

Race 7 is a $15,000 claiming race for 3 YOs foaled in NYS. There are a few horses here that have had good efforts in the slop; Our Special Effort/1 has a career best BSF of 66 on a sloppy Aqueduct track.

That said, I'm going with what I consider better horses in the first leg of the Pick Four. Odessa's Hope/6 is a 4 Yo with D. Cohen up for Trainer Gyarmati. Blow Up/9 is dropping back in class for Trainer Toscano and Never Give Up/10 also drops in class for Trainer B. Brown. brown has great stats with 21% claimer wins, 24% Won Last Starts, and 25% 2nd Off Over 180. Considering singling.

Race 8 is a 6 furlong 40K N1X for Fillies and Mares. I like three here and I think the bettors will too: Risky Rachel/2 has a good win on slop, Spanish Luck/4 is trained by R. Reid who has fantastic stats and this horse has the most earnings per race of the field. Positive Pitch/7 is a B. Levine trainee with a win at the distance but never on slop. Thinking of just betting the first two here.

Race 9 is the Grade II Distaff Handicap. Tar Heel Mom has 3 wins on an off track which makes her hard to ignore. Justwhistledixie is a quality horse who hasn't won in four races. Mott drops her distance and brings her in after sharpening her since late February. Matchless Orinda will provide lots of early speed but will fight the slowing track as she goes. Trainer Pletcher's Hour Glass also has shown a strong affinity for off track and is the most consistent runner of the bunch. I'm going to bet some exacta/trifecta combinations straight and have a bit of fun with it.

Race 10 is a 1 mile turf affair, currently still listed as on the turf. Marina Market/5 goes for Trainer S. Asmussen for the first time, something he pulls off wins with 21% of the time. No turf wins yet but Asmussen is 17% on the Dirt/Turf switch. Sydney Road/10 has 3 Turf wins and 5 of 7 in the money on Turf. Ballast (Ire) has 9 turf wins and is 25 of 46 in the money on Turf. I am considering inserting Ballast into my Pick 4 as long as I don't exceed my bet allowance of $54 dollars.

Have Fun with it, Turk Out! Go Sabres!

The Nomination Is In: April 3, 2010; Aqueduct Pick 4 on Wood Memorial/Carter Handicap Day

That fine looking runner to your left is a Turk favorite, Musket Man, one of several Turk Family clan favorites running in big field of stakes races at the Big A. Thanks to Wendy for the use of the nice picture.

My immediate feeling earlier in the week was that I wanted to handicap the Pick 4 at Aqueduct and possibly Santa Anita this weekend as my featured handicaps for this humble blog. After a few hours of handicapping, you could say I have buyers remorse. Why? Small fields are not your friend. I like the runners in these four races but it's hard to find value with six horse fields and. There is no true heavy chalk nor are there many flat out tosses. While I like the challenge and the Suduko-esque nature of a Pick 4, I'll be watching the scratches closely and making a call before the Pick 4 goes off if I want in or not. If I am in, I'm going to keep the risk minimal and try to bring the bet in around $36 dollars. Without superfectas, I'll bet the individual races and be a bit defensive with the goal of breaking even at worst or turning a better then 50% ROI at best. That's my strategy at 9:30 ET, we'll see as my third cup of coffee kicks in where I flop out later. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct: Race 7 - Race 8 - Race 9 - Race 10


Race 7 is a 7 furlong sprint and it marks the return of Eightyfiveinafifty, back from a vacation in the Aqueduct parking lot his last time out. Trainer Contessa gives the mount to R. Dominguez, a combo that wins 22% of the time at the Big A. Owns a race best 105 BSF and has been training sharply. Originally scheduled to be coupled with another Contessa trainee, Castaneda, that fine son of Yonaguska won yesterday's 8th race at Aqueduct. Eightyfiveinafifty has alot to prove today and this is far from settled. The Turk may hunt for a deeper selection here before I place the Pick 4 and maybe we watch the tote board and bet one of the two possible contenders, Raynick's Jet or Hurricane Ike.

Raynick's Jet breaks from post 2 for Trainer S. Asmussen, with Cohen up, a combo that is working for the 10th time together but clips along at 44%. Comes in off a 6f inner track N1X Win in early March where he added 18 BSF points to his previous lifetime best. Hurricane Ike goes on dirt for the first time for trainer Sadler who has a pathetic 16 Dirt races and 6% win rate over past year. You have to ask yourself then, why here? Training sharply, a :45 3/5's 4f work in late March. I think that's as deep as I'll go here.

Race 8 is the 1 1/8 mile Excelsior Grade III with a six horse field. While not big on quantity, the quality is excellent with at least four horses having legitimate chances to win, Nite Light, Goldsville, More Than a Reason and National Pride.

I'm backing Nite Light, the 6 YO Edward Evans/T.Pletcher/J. Velazquez combo. Pletcher and Velazquez clip along at a gaudy 32% at the Big A and 22% over 400 races in the past year. Only 1 win in the last 9 starts, 4 of 4 at the distance and 11 of 13 on fast dirt and 15 of 19 in the money lifetime with a last race98 BSF where he finished for Show to Place horse National Pride in The Stymie.

National Pride a Darley trained by McLaughlin turned a :47 3/5ths 4 f burner at the Belmont training track last week. 1 win in last 7 starts, 4 of 10 on Fast Dirt, winless at the distance and a last race best 99 BSF. Migliore up, 2 wins at the Big A, most in the field.

Goldsville goes for the second time since switching to Trainer Hushion. the 5 YO is 3 of 19 lifetime, 1 win in last 8, 3 wins in 8 Fast dirt starts, unraced at this distance and winless in 3 tries at Aqueduct. A nice inner track win in early March put him in position for today. Trainer Hushion,with Dominguez up win 63% of the time as they go for race 25 together at the Big A and 56% of the time over past year in their 40th start together. Trainer Hushion wins 32% of his routes and 30% of his 2nd off 45-180 day layofffs and 26% of his Won Last Starts. Watch the tote on him. More Than a Reason is a 5 YO son of More Than Ready and is starting his 48th race. Wow! 27 of 47 in the money lifetime, 4 wins in last 29 starts, 4 wins in 29 starts on Dirt and a whopping 6 off track wins. Capable, most likely will fall to 8-1 or higher.

Another six horse field greets you in the Wood Memorial. The romping Fountain of Youth Grade II winner Eskendereya tries to extend his dirt winning streak to 3 straight. An impressive 106 BSF from last race, has been training progressively faster at 5f as he prepared for this.the son of Giant's Causeway has won at 1 1/8 miles and is a potential single for me as I try to keep the bet reasonable in the Pick 4. He'll most likely press the pace himself and sitting off his flanks should be Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams and Awesome Act as this is a four horse race.

Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams represent the best chance to upset Eskendereya late. It's not that I don't respect what Awesome Act did in the Gotham, and I respect Leparoux, but I'm being decisive and we'll see how it works out. Jackson Bend doesn't hold up well on the PP's, looking a cut below, but I like the guts and an interesting jock switch to C. Borel signals what Trainer Zito is looking for. 8 of 8 in the money. Schoolyard Dreams has been impressive at Tampa Bay Downs this winter for Trainer D. Ryan. a :46 4/5ths 4f rocket a week ago is an eye opener. This will be a fun race to bet and I'll be looking for the value horses, especially Schoolyard Dreams at 4-1 or higher to provide a hedge against the risk overall on this card. Little Turk refuses to discount the Gotham and backs Awesome Act while Mrs Turk goes value shopping and bets Most Happy Fella.

And then Race 10 is the Carter Handicap. Turk favorites Munnings and Musket Man square off here in a five horse/six total with a couple field. I like the guts and grit of Musket Man. I'm not sure if this is a race he should be in, but it appears Ryan is taking his 4 YO star slowly back from the bone bruise that ended his magnificent 3 YO season. He'll be up against a serious speedball in Pletcher's Munnings. Musket Man, son of Yonguska is 2 for 2 at this distance and himself put up a :46 4/5th rocket for Ryan as well last week. Munnings, the son of Speightstown from Dam La Comete was bred for greatness, and he shows flashes.

Warrior's Reward has 3 wins in last 11 starts, 7 of 8 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 at the distance and has been training sharply for Trainer Wilkes.
the 4 YO son of Medaglia d'Oro strung together a nice late summer campaign last year and enters off nice N2X with Leparoux up.

It's still early in the day. My handicaps are complete but before I place my bets I'm going to walk the dog, have a cigar, and clear my thoughts. It should be a fun day. I hope you have fun too this Easter Weekend, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 6, 2010; Aqueduct Toboggan and Gotham and Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap

The Turk uses a curious photo to kick off his Post Race Analysis today: Pictured to the left is a shot I took of Rail Trip nipping Dakota Phone at the wire in last year's Santana Mile at Santa Anita. Dakota Phone is a curious horse: 11 Place or Shows in 23 starts with 4 wins. On that particular day at the Santana Mile he closed furiously in the stretch and almost upset the unbeaten Rail Trip. He hasn't won in his last 10 starts but he's always around the action, finishing only a head behind the underrated Richard's Kid not even a month ago. He doesn't get much respect at the betting window, but I'm not the betting window. I know Dakota Phone likes to be near the action and this was a key in a very lucrative day for the Turk yesterday. Let's get after it!

The action began at Aqueduct with Races 4 - 5 - 6 and then 10 as well as Santa Anita Race 10


The day started off well in Race 4 at Aqueduct, a five horse edition of the Toboggan. My pre race analysis was pretty much dead on although I anticipated Custom for Carlos would be the bettors favorite choice but the savvy group that plays Aqueduct rarely miss a beat and rightly put Wall Street Wonder on the top of the tote board. An easy Tri and Exacta win came out of this race and I was alive in the Pick Three.

Did I say I was alive in the Pick Three? It didn't last long. Race 5 had my last toss out Goldsville winning and when I went back to the PP's I realized I dropped him for being a synthetic horse even though he had some dirt wins. No matter, I was dead and would have been deader in Race 6 as my first toss Spa City Baby won as a big longshot.

My Gotham handicap was pretty much junk too. I liked Wow Wow Wow but I knew breaking from the far outside meant expending alot of energy early. He did, took the lead and then got dropped like a stone. I always was surprised by Awesome Act being so highly regarded by the bettor's as about the only thing I liked was Leparoux up. As a handicapper, I study the carnage and then let it go.

After eating dinner I turned my attention to the race I was thinking about all day, the 14 horse Santa Anita Handicap with no clear favorite. To me that means big payouts. I've put together below the anatomy of how the winning bet was constructed. Betting is always a secondary thing for me. I build a base handicap which I list Pre Race and I assign arbitrary grades to each horse. I toss a certain portion of each field (In Red) and I try to build stratification layers of quality within the field. Generally the horses could care less and one RED Horse will inevitably break through and screw up the handicap, but if you are consistent and apply the principals week after week as your handicapping improves so will your bet construction. The two are symbiotic.

Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap



That is the type of bet construction I can only do in the peace and quiet of my own home or office and could never do at a track. I need solitude, I need my PP's and my google docs, and I need my handicapper's notes to remind me that I like Dakota Phone, that Neko Bay is never respected, that betting for the first filly in 73 years isn't a great bet and that I should build a handicap that could survive watching my first and third choices finish out of the money.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 6, 2010; Aqueduct Pick Three w/ The Toboggan as well as The Gotham

The early part of today has the Turk's mind thinking about Aqueduct. Past winters I have played the track regularly but for whatever reason this year I haven't been as compelled by the runners there. That's starting to change as I'm thinking of altering my New Year's Resolution to go to the Arkansas Derby and instead travel down to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial. As much as I looked forward to Oaklawn, the idea of going there during what most likely will be a weekend of high scalper tickets and Rachel/Zenyatta madness makes the idea less appealing. Today's foray into Aqueduct starts with an early Pick Three that's kicked off by the Grade III Toboggan and then The Grade III Gotham later in the afternoon. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct Race 4-5-6-10



A smallish field of five contests today's Grade III Toboggan. I'm generally a quality over quantity fella, and I like the quality very much but would have preferred a bit more quantity. Handicapper's have a choice to just not bet, but I'm game for the Pick Three.

Trainer Terranova brings Wall Street Wonder into the race coming off a gaudy 109 BSF on the inner course in late January. 2 for 2 at the Big A, 2 of 3 on Fast Dirt and 8 of 12 lifetime in the money for the 4 YO son of City Place. Trainer Terranova and Jock Hill combine for 40% winners and Terranova is 24% off 31-60 Day layoffs. I like the inner course record and my only concern is how he came out of last race, but I'll roll the dice.

Turk favorite Custom for Carlos, winner of the Grade III Mr. Prospector at GP ships in for Trainer Kenneally for his first Aqueduct start. 5 of 5 in the money at the distance 6 of 6 in the money lifetime on fast dirt. Lifetime best BSF for the race and 10 straight 90+ BSF's. The son of More then Ready is more then capable of winning and has J. Leparoux up.

Another 2 for 2 winner at Aqueduct is Elusive Warning running for Trainer Mclaughlin with the Mig up. Only 9th start for the 6 YO son of Elusive Quality with a stint overseas for the Darley owned horse.

Driven by Success starts for new trainer, T. Pletcher today, something Pletcher wins 12% of the time. 2 wins in last 11 for the 5 YO gelding. Capable of big efforts.

For the Pick Three I'm leaning towards a 3 X 3 X 2 for an $18 dollar bet. In Race 5, a 1 Mile 70 yard OC 50K/N2X affair, I like Sawtooth Mountain, blinkers on for trainer DeRosa. 16th career start for the 4 YO son of Johannesburg who has 2 wins at Aqueduct under his girth.My only other non tosses are The Roundhouse and Half Metal Jacket.

In Race 6, a Maiden Special Weight 49K for F&M 3 YO and up foaled in NYS, if I'm still alive and I don't have a good feeling about that, I'll be looking for either Lindsay's Point or All Sew Smooth.

The Turk will say again, it's tempting to add just one more horse but don't do it! These Pick Three's that I've been winning regularly aren't great payouts when likely horses win so unless you are wildly contrarian in two legs of the Pick Three, don't waste your money. I like them for fun but keep it real and never bet more then you are prepared to lose.

Later in the day, the Grade III Gotham goes off with Wood Memorial hopefuls and seven Triple Crown nominees. The Turk is leaning towards Wow Wow Wow, the Lukas trainee son of Broken Vow from breeder Marylou Whitney Stables. Coming off a win at 1 1/16 at Oaklawn Park and with OP jockey ship in Nakatani up, and Lukas/Nakatani chemistry is rising with a 31% win rate.

After staring at the PP's for a bit of time, I'm going out there with a Stephen Got Even son, I've Got The Fever on my board to place. Comes in off a nice effort in late February at 1 mile at Aqueduct. He ran a sharp final quarter his last time out and Trainer Terranova places Hill up for his third mount in a row on this IEAH runner.

Yawanna Twist is an R. Duttrow trainee stepping up several furlongs in distance but is 2 for 2 at Aqueduct and looks to keep record perfect. It's asking alot so I'll be hedging down more then hedging up.

Peppi Knows is a winner at the Big A at 1 1/16 miles but hasn't got much respect off a pretty slow Whirlaway win. Three Day Rush is a Pletcher trainee that has to show something today after a poor effort in that same Whirlaway.

The Nomination Is In: January 3, 2010; The Hal's Hope at Gulfstream & Post Race Analysis for The Count Fleet & San Gorgonio Hcp.

The fine looking, Allen Jerkens trained horse to the left is none other then two time Grade III winner, Le Grand Cru, the Turk's tepid chalk in the Grade III Hal's Hope on opening day at Gulfstream Park. Yesterday's two handicaps kicked off another year of publicly handicapping the ponies for The Turk. While I would have loved to report a big splash, it was more workmanlike and typical of the type of racetrack scores that don't kill you but don't make you rich either. Let's talk about yesterday and then get to today!

Race 8 Aqueduct: The Count Fleet Stakes; 1 mile and 70 yards on fast inner track dirt for 3 YOs and Race 8 at Santa Anita: The San Gorgonio Handicap Grade III; 1 1/8 miles on firm turf for F&M 4 YO and Up.



Full disclosure. I fell asleep yesterday afternoon and woke up with a few minutes to post at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet. I was less excited about this race anyhow after Peppi Knows scratched. I expected a better effort from Ibboyee and I hated the odds this horse was bet down to. I also liked my base handicap and didn't like the idea of a sub $10 exacta winner so I shook off the cobwebs, looked at the Tote Board and bet my 2nd and 3rd choices, which lined up with what the bettors thought as well. Laus Deo rewarded my rather lazy and uninspired bet, but a win is a win.

At Santa Anita, the scratch of Life Is Sweet eliminated a serious money magnet from the mix. I waited patiently on the tote board to see how the bettors responded and the response was about what I expected: Diamondrella was bet down to near even money with money spread nearly evenly between Cat by the Tale, Treat Gently (GB) and Diamondrella (GB). About the best value on the board was Century Park, who pre race I said would set the pace and get gobbled up at the top of the stretch, which is exactly what happened. Without a strong opinion I relied on my first impression of the race, my base handicap. Using it I constructed a win bet, an exacta and I came close to a Superfecta. I had the superfecta lined up to bet but it was a 5 horse box and I didn't think the reward was worth the bet. In hindsight I miscalculated and I left about 24 bucks at the window that should have been mine but mistakes happen, even in the confines of my quiet den. Mistakes are multiplied at the track itself with all kinds of distractions, so do your homework before you get to the track.

The results of the day were positive but more the result of good bet construction then handicapping. I don't always focus my blog on the bet construction mechanics for time constraint reasons, but soon I will do a cradle to grave blog post with spreadsheets and all on both side of the equation. I get more satisfaction from the handicapping side of things, but I get less grief from Mrs. Turk when the betting side of it pans out. A dichotomy for this horse players soul for sure!

Race 8 Gulfstream Park post time 4:43 ET; The Hal's Hope Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



The best horse in the race is Quality Road followed by Harlem Rocker, two Pletcher trainees. That said, both enter with questions to answer and will hit the top four on class and skill more then anything else, and either could win, but I'm hunting for value and I like Le Grand Cru to win his third straight Grade III.

Le Grand Cru last raced in late October and has strung two straight upper 90 BSFs together to win two Grade III events. Working steady and fast at GP since mid December. The 5 YO son of Dynaformer is detirmined and will strike the lead early and won't cave in even if he slips back in the middle points of call. Sure its a crap shoot but most likely enters the post >5-1. No worse then fourth.

Harlem Rocker is a grade I winning miler who has raced once in over 14 months. :59 2/5ths at 5f in a handride just before XMAS, sharp enough to be competitive, talented enough to win.

Quality Road needs no introduction to most observers of our sport. Supremely talented, a bit of a tease, I do like him at 1 mile more then >8f but this is the first time back in a starting gate for real since the meltdown on live TV two months ago. I was surprised not to see some gate break training works but I'm not an Eclipse Award winning trainer so I'll zip it.

The rest of the field is a mixed bag, with the best of the bunch being You and I Forever. I'm looking at Spin Master as possibly busting into the top four.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 2, 2010; The Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct

The fantastic Sarah K. Andrew picture to the left is Haynesfield, the winner of the 2009 Count Fleet Stakes. Sarah has an incredible eye and has an ability to capture the competitive soul of the horse very well. Please visit her website and support her artistry the right way. Alrighty, let's kick off 2010 Turk Style.

Race 8 Aqueduct, post time 3:44: The Count Fleet Stakes; 1 Mile 70 Yards on the inner dirt for 3 YOs.



The weather looks like typical mixed bag precipitation and cold. The track conditions should be fast and check on the changes before finalizing your handicap.

Ibboyee is the morning line favorite and I would add a heavy chalk going into this race. A winner already at this distance on this inner dirt track, 3 of past four races producing "drew off" wins and upper 80 BSF's. Trainer Pletcher comes in after winning 235 races in 2009 and the Pletcher/R. Dominguez combo won 29% of their races at the Big A over past year. A New York bred son of Medallist, races in the Black and White Diamond silks of Anstu Stables. 8-5 on the morning line, could easily go 4-5 or lower. I will back the heavy chalk and try to build reasonable exotics off this key.

Turbo Speed is a Houghton trained and home bred from the families Sylmar Farms. The word "driving" was in his running line in all three of his races, of which he is 3 for 3. A big step up in distance and class but appears very capable. Not a lock for Place, but top four is a realistic goal.

Laus Deo is a Fox Hill Farm, Anthony Dutrow conditioned horse, a son of Medaglia d'Oro and Dam Shebane (Alysheba). Very classy but needs to show a bit more today after breaking his maiden the last time out at 7f . A. Dutrow won at an astounding 28% clip in 2009 and Dutrow/Cohen combo clipped away at 36% with over 130 races together. A. Dutrow's Stakes win percentage is a gaudy 31% on 55 races and his won last start is 39%. Wow!

Peppi Knows is a Steven Got Even gelding with 3 wins already and the only appearance in a graded stakes, a beaten second in late November. Best effort so far was on PID fake dirt. A LATE UPDATE Peppi Knows has scratched.

It's a bit early to have a fully fleshed out bet strategy, but exactas with Ibboyee and a few straight Tri and Super bets will be my focus. I've already added some color to my base handicap and I don't see my thoughts changing much between now and tomorrow, but as always, watch the tote and consider the risk/reward of every bet you place.

After reviewing the 2009 New Year's Resolutions for The Turk, I've decided that I did pretty darn good by stating some goals publicly and we'll see if we can't some mileage out of that ploy again. My early season resolution is to attend the Arkansas Derby on April 10th at Oaklawn Park. With the poly tracks severely limiting the Kentucky Derby hopefuls coming out of California, Oaklawn will see more horses like past winners Curlin, Laywer Ron and Smarty Jones pass through the winners circle, as well as horses like last year's winner Papa Clem who know they must leave California before May and try the dirt.

My mid summer goals are to make another trip with my family back to Arlington for Stakes racing as well as another all Turk adventure to Saratoga. It was my pleasure this year to have three generations of Turk horseplayers picking Careless Jewel in the Alabama. The races I attend mid summer are always dependant on Little Turk's soccer schedule, as I do have my priorities where they should be.

My late season goal will be to attend the Jockeys Gold Cup at Belmont.

My 2009 goal of turning at least two people into horse players went well. I have been purchasing copies of Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies and giving them to folks I think I can influence, albeit slightly. I was proud to see a few of them place their own bets at the OTB, on their own nonetheless. Baby steps is still progress.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day December 12, 2009; The Queens County Handicap at Aqueduct and the Native Diver at Hollywood

I had to see it to remember, and perhaps Mast Track needed to see it too. The Hollywood Gold Cup Winner broke his long winless streak yesterday to take the Grade III Native Diver Handicap for new owner , Stronach Stables, and gives trainer Ascanio another win as he emerges from the shadow of lost but not forgotten legend, Bobby Frankel. I'd love to have shown a picture of Rodman winning the Grade III Queens County Handicap from Aqueduct yesterday but I reckon no one could get a good angle from the OTB parlor.

Race 8 Aqueduct: The Queens County Handicap Grade III; 1 3/16 miles on the inner dirt for 3 YO and Up and Race 7 at Hollywood Park: The Native Diver Grade III; 1 1/8 miles on poly for 3 YOs and Up.



At Aqueduct, my base handicap had the top two flip flopped but I felt strongly enough to box the exacta and I was rewarded with a decent payout. I didn't see More Then a Reason being competitive and my lone toss taking Show would have really messed me up if I had pressed my betting, which I didn't. As I said pre race, bet responsibly, and to me that isn't a public service warning telling fellow horse players not to bet but instead The Turk's way of saying don't throw good money at bad fields or bad handicaps. I did expect Honour Devil to look better then he did and he looked unimpressive. Rodman struck the front very early, leading by 2 1/2 lengths at the top of the stretch and won by 5 3/4 lengths in convincing fashion. I read there is talk of a start at the Donn. We'll see.

At Hollywood, a similar race unfolded with Mast Track loose on the lead and unthreatened throughout. Neko Bay made a late run but maybe too late and High Court Drama, my one toss, screwed up any chance I had of cashing a ticket on this race BUT gave us a horse to watch in his next start. Thanks to Steve from Wireplayers.com and Rob from Amateurcapper for chiming in with good points. Also, check out Kate's Keiblog for some fantastic thoughts and pictures of the world of horse racing in Japan.



Turk Out!

Th Nomination Is In: December 12, 2009; The Queens County Handicap Grade III on the Inner Dirt at Aqueduct

Two horses running in today's 104th running of the Queens County Handicap at Aqueduct, Naughty New Yorker and Stud Muffin, are horses with names after my own heart. Unfortunately neither of these hard knocker's are The Turk's chalk and that distinction belongs to Researcher, the defending champion. The weather in Ozone Park is chilly but dry. As always, understand the weather, the scratches, and the intricacies of a particular track before building your handicap. Let's Go!

Race 8 Aqueduct Post Time 3:44 ET; The Queens County Handicap Grade III; 1 3/16 miles on the Inner Dirt Course for 3 YO and Up.



Researcher is the defending champion, the morning line favorite, and a previous winner on the inner track, a tight cornered affair that not all horses do well with. Comes in training sharply and off a Place at one mile and a big 108 BSF on the slop in October. Winner of 7 of the last 16 entered. J. Velazquez is up for Trainer Runco who wins 25% of his routes but doesn't get many entered in stakes.

Rodman is another inner track winner and comes in off a 102 BSF at 1 Mile at the Big A in early November. Distance will be the issue for the 4 YO who has mostly stuck to 6, 7 and 8 furlong affairs.

Honour Devil (Arg) is a nifty Argentinian with A. Garcia up today. Enters 4th race since coming from Mike de Klock's barn in late September and is looking for a break out win in the States. Comes in off an OC 100K win where he was loose on the lead. 4 Wins in last 9 starts, none at distance or at Aqueduct, but at least all on Fast Dirt.

Naughty New Yorker is making his 53 start here at the end of his 7th year. 9 of 11 in the money on the inner track but only 1 win in last 12 starts and only 3 of last 12 in the money. The son of Quiet American may be near the end.

So what do we do with this? I must say, I'm not wildly impressed with the field, but beggars can't be choosers this time of year when it comes to graded stakes.

10 Cent Supers are in fashion. I'm going to watch the tote closely and try to find value on my base handicap. That may mean a few boxed Supers and then a few exactas with value, such as Honour Devil on top and a few others in the Place spot. Again, I'm not sure where the bettors will go with this and where the tote board goes will determine how deeply I play. Bet responsibly.

I'd like to thank Equispace for joining me this morning at the 1st Annual Symposium on Horse Racing and Cigar Smoking.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day November 28, 2009; The Cigar Mile at Aqueduct and The Matriarch at Hollywood Park

Just that kind of weekend, plugging away in the coal mine that the horsegame can sometimes be reduced to. I'm a horse racing fan and I'm also a horse player. At times I keep these two sides separate and one of the greatest skills I have is the ability to not feel the need for "action plays". I can be quite content just watching the ponies run for the wire. That said, I'm in horse player mode right now. There's good money to made on the undercards most weekends, but I prefer to blog about handicapping graded stakes and this time of the year you get what you get. What I got yesterday in the Cigar Mile and The Matriarch was a mixed bag of short priced chalks and small fields that the betting public were pretty hip to. To make money, sometimes you just have to be a coal miner; chip away at the stuff you think you can hit and keep your exposure low when you can't.

Before I get too far, I wish Summer Bird a speedy recovery. Lets Go!

The Cigar Mile Grade I at Aqueduct and The Matriarch Grade I at Hollywood Park



The Cigar Mile was a race I felt OK about the ability to make money on, especially the Exacta. I felt Bribon (Fr) would win, closely followed by Kodiak Kowboy. For a good paying trifecta, I believed Driven by Success had a chance to slip into the action. Just as I said prerace, I kept the exposure low, bet a boxed exacta on my base handicap and was rewarded with $45.20 on an $8 bet. My one trifecta busted out but the key was keeping the exposure low, which I did. The other good thing I did was identify that the coupled chalks, Pyro and Vineyard Haven would finish no better then Show. Vineyard Haven should drop back to 6 furlongs and Pyro, I dunno. Hat's off to Kodiak Kowboy, a solid run and a good win bet return for those who backed him.

Switching gears to The Matriarch, there really wasn't much you could do with this one. Ventura had a stirring stretch run and won convincingly. I had the top four locked up and with an engagement around the time the race went to post I bet a 10 cent boxed Superfecta for $2.40 based on my base handicap hours before post time. The $1 Superfecta returned $11.40 and my 10% variety returned a paltry $1.14. It doesn't happen often, but the bettors had this one dead cold and the order of finish was exactly, top to bottom, the order the bettors had them finishing. I kept the exposure low and if I would have followed my own rules I wouldn't have bet a nickel.

I received an email recently and the reader asked me my thoughts on exotic betting. I gave the simplest answer I know: 1.) Don't bother until you can pick winners on a regular basis and 2.) you can identify the toss-out horses regularly. If you can pick the winners, eliminate the horses who can't break the top four, and identify a group of horses that will slot out Place, Show and 4th, then you are ready. Bet responsibly and remember the best bets are often the ones you don't make.





Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 28, 2009; The Cigar Mile Grade I at Aqueduct

With the green yoke is Bribon (Fr), The Turk's chalk in today's Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. In this Vanessa Ng photo Bribon battles and ultimately beats Smooth Air at the Met Mile, the highlight so far in the 6 YO geldings career. Trainer Ribaudo brings the Mark of Esteem (Ire) son up against a small but strong field today for a stiff test. Let's go!

Race 9 Aqueduct; The Cigar Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on Dirt; A Handicap for 3 YOs and Up (Google Docs Spreadsheet attached)



Scratches and Changes you'll find here. The weather can be seen here.

Bribon (Fr) has rested and trained since a Woodbine Mile effort that produced a running line "in touch, all out drive". His 99 BSF was nowhere near good enough to beat Ventura on that day but this is a quality grade stakes miler. Capable of a mid 100+ BSF. Ran a :59 flat 5 furlong work at Belmont that past week. Looking for tenth win in thirty starts. It will take his best effort and I'll be hedging down on 1/2 of my tickets to Place.

Kodiak Kowboy will provide a very stiff challenge to Bribon and is more then capable of winning this race. Coming in off a Grade I win in the slop at Belmont at 6 furlongs. Was pointed to Breeders' Cup but had some mucus in his lungs that needed to be cleaned out. 13 day break in works from 2 November to 15 November, with a sharp 6 furlongs in 1:12 3/5ths on that day. Looking for third Grade I win in 2009 and makes twenty third career start and is looking for win eleven.

Pyro, the supremely talented 4 YO son of Pulpit is the career money earnings leader in this race, but an erratic career it has been, making seventeenth start and looking for win number six and his first at 1 Mile. He comes in off a rather pointless trip to the Breeders' Cup where he was forced to again prove he doesn't like fake dirt. Has Migliore up today for Trainer bin Suroor.

Coupled to Pyro is his stable mate, Vineyared Haven, another Godolphin runner that coulda, shoulda been better by this point in his career. A nice 6f Grade I win in the slop at Laurel in late October and before that a DQ in the King Bishop, also in the slop, in fact hasn't raced on fast dirt since a Grade I win at Belmont in October 2008 beating Munnings and Cribnote, two that could have spiced this event up today.

So what are we to do with this? A small field with two potential winners coupled together and one toss, Vacation)that offers value without any real prospect of cashing.

I'm thinking low risk, medium reward bet strategy. Driven by Success comes in off a sloppy win at 6f and most likely will set a blistering pace as he did in the Met Mile. I'll take a position of betting him to Show and then mixing and matching a few Win and Place candidates in straight Trifecta betting. We'll have some fun and keep the exposure low.

Have Fun, Turk Out!