hardcore, degenerate readers know my story, I'll quickly tell you about me and this blog for the 3 times per year readers on the Triple Crown Days. I'm a 50 something numbers geek, with limited social skills, no friends and I live with three cats, a big dog, a Korean (AKA Little Turk) and my wife of 25 years. I fixate on two very distinct things: Who can win (the Base Handicap) and Value Betting. I like exotics and Multi Race Pick 3-4-5's. That's all you really need to know!
This edition of The Preakness is the sort of race that makes me work both sides of the coin very hard. I have a base handicap that tells me Always Dreaming and Classic Empire are clearly better than the other horses by most measures: Class, top speed, off track speed, fast dirt track win percentage. That said, ehh, I'm not that excited to bet a 4-5 Boxed Exacta. It just doesn't do it for me and my desire to find value. Let's take a look instead at the base handicap and see if we can construct a bet strategy that is reasonably priced and offers real value if the ticket scores. Let's get after it!
I've tossed from consideration three horses. It's important to understand that I'm not saying these horses will finish last. I'm saying you can't cover every runner, or I should say you can, but the tickets would be very pricey. For example, a 7 horse tri-box will cost $420 for a 42 bet. That's just a very bad bet. Alternatively, a $2 Tri with a single horse on top and 3 horses covered in Place and Show will set you back $12. I'm not your mother, but betting irresponsibly isn't going to increase your chances of winning. There is nothing cool about the magic trick of turning a $350 bet into $190 of winnings.
I'm generally of the opinion that Always Dreaming will win this race. I think the fun thing is who finishes 2-5. I've been handicapping the better part of 30 years and I'll tell you honestly and with no shame: I dunno! This is a pretty even field of even quality and quite a few one run horses that if they get loose could either nip the wire or just be going forward while others are dropping. Looking at Lee, Gunnevera, Hence, Senior Investment, Cloud Computing and Multiplier will most likely make one big run at the top of the stretch. Conquest Mo Money, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire should be on the pace.
So, I tossed three horses like I started to say before I rambled off into a tangent. Multiplier is the one I'm concerned about, but again, you can't cover everyone. I intend to build a series of exotic bets, mostly centered (but not all) around Always Dreaming singled with the rest of this six horses in some combination of finish. Sorry to disappoint, but I have no "wiseguy" insights to offer with this group. My strong suggestion is to watch the track today and see how the speed is carrying. More likely than not Always Dreaming will have no problem carrying speed if his trip is fairly clean. I sorta like an Always Dreaming OVER 6 OVER 6 for $60 but that isn't very value so I have to get to a 1 X 3 X 3 and it's just going to be some combination, and if forced to choose: Always Dreaming 4 OVER 3-9-6 OVER 3-9-6 (Hence, Looking at Lee, Gunnevera).
I'm most likely not settling on my bets until the post parade. Whatever you do, have fun and don't bet the mortgage or the kid's school tuition.
Saturday, May 20, 2017
Saturday, May 6, 2017
|Classic Empire: Photo by Rick Samuels with appreciation for its use|
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.
Kentucky Derby is such a big, fun, and inclusive day on the race calendar. Friends and family that never talk horse racing suddenly stop their lives each first Saturday in May for a chance at picking the winner in the fastest two minutes in sports. Little do they realize how many other great racing days their are in the calendar year, but I don't blame them: The sport is not really run by anyone. In my own home stake, political appointed hacks make most of the decisions. The sport is at the mercy of track owners who only care about their small slice of life, the mostly 1% 'ers who own the horses for their own reasons, and that leaves the fans a sport that is poorly promoted, contracted and not grown, and feel good moments squandered. If your looking for answers, you are reading the wrong blog! This horse racing fan has no magic dust or great ideas other than to repeat over and over again that a single central body should be in charge and make decisions for the best of the sport.
For my readers, you know how little I pay attention to three year old prep races. To me, it creates an opportunity that comes with some downside. The opportunity is I am free of the hype. I didn't even watch the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race that closely, as I dislike 2 YO racing more than I like 3 YO racing. The names mean almost nothing to me. When I sat down with the DRF Formulator Past Performances (which I set up to grey out horses not within 1 length of the lead at first call and times given in fractions at the different calls) I had a true beginners min in Zen terms.
Twenty horses: sensory overload. I miss the days when these Triple Crown babies had 10+ starts by this time. The more ink the better. The downside of my stance is you can miss stuff when you pay no attention to media reports. Little things, important things, like Girvin's quarter crack issues. So, one qualifier on my position is I will try to read clocker reports (I won't pay for the service even though the best ones are at a premium and deserve to be paid), I'll pay attention to some serious horse player twitter feeds, and I'll avoid Bloodhorse, DRF and ESPN fluff pieces about the connections, a sick kid, etc. etc. etc. I love sick kids, would give anything to help them, but I'm a sucker for sentimental things like that and sentimentality and handicapping should never mix.
Anyway's, I don't plan on rambling too much today. I'll get 1000X my normal hits today and all anyone wants to see is if this idiot has the same picks as they do. Let's start with watching all the major prep races just to get a feel. The track is expected to be sloppy and the weather not very good. My base handicap downplays the track conditions a bit but its a wildcard.
Another thing this handicapper does his best to avoid until he makes his own decisions are Morning Lines. It's just another handicappers bias. When you handicap as much as I do, you start to gain an appreciation for the people you think are really good, and the people you wonder what game are they watching. Out of respect, I don't talk about the good or the bad ones. The overriding point is make your own morning line based on your own handicapping. Use the toteboard as a way to see what the betting public thinks. On a day like today, a lot of dumb money plays the track. Be smart, place your bets near post time, watch the moves on the tote after the post parade, and be smart: Why chase favorites on a Win bet, or worse, a Show bet (that was for you Mother Turk).
I cam away picking a group of horses that I will be playing in the Super High Five, my favorite handicapper challenge. I have 10 horses who have a shot at the Top 5 spots. If you boxed 10 horses for the Super Hi-Five it would cost for a $2 bet more money than most luxury SUVs. You have to build a matrix and hope for the best. Someone outside of this top 10 will screw up the works, but again, that's why its called gambling.
In layers I like Classic Empire, Hence and Irap followed by Always Dreaming and McCraken, followed by Sonneteer, Irish War Cry, Gormley, Thundersnow and Girvin.
In my expected to screw me up group are the C+ horses led by Gunnevera, Practical Joke and Patch.
I won't bore you too much with the why's and why not's, just a few thoughts:
- Pioneerof the Nile's son, Classic Empire, was a beast in my favorite prep, the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Mark Casse has been building towards the pinnacle of racing for sometime. Not sure I like Leparoux up but I'll defer to smarter minds.
- I love how the O'Neill/Reddam team were flat at Sunland Derby and came right back in the Blue Grass, so much more relevant again on dirt. Irap, a Tiznow son, could surprise.
- Calumet Farms is finally relevant again. I wish they still had the devil red silks, but you can't have everything. I loved Hence at the Sunland Derby and I like him here.
- Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming is a serious contender. Don't take my positioning the wrong way. He could easily win, but I'm contrarian by nature.
- Sonneteer is a long shot I like to be moving forward at the 1/8 pole instead of backwards. He may bring some real value in 5th or 4th spot.
- Gunnevera will eat a lot of dirt in his face today with his running style. My making a gamble that he doesn't have the will to finish strong by the end but the downside risk he makes the top 5.
There's 20 horses; You can't pick everyone in your exotics, you can't cover and box the field, well you can, it just wouldn't be reasonably financially. Have fun picking horses. Just like we say at our Catholic Church, we hope you enjoy it enough to come more than Christmas and Easter, and I hope to see you reading the Turk more often than Derby Day.
So what is the Turk going to do?
I'm going to bet the Pick 3 (Race 10-11-12). If your new to the sport, these multi-race bets are a fun way to enjoy the track experience and quite frankly you can be pretty successful even as a novice if you cover the favorites and throw a value horse in as well. Don't waste too much money chasing the big exotics like a Super Hi-5. The Trifecta and Exacta bets will pay well, especially if a value horse sneaks in .
If I was betting, here is two versions of a Super High 5 and Exacta bet. I'm partial to the $48 exacta and the $134 Super High Five (a power ball ticket with a much smaller pot).