Welcome to the Turk and the Little Turk.
I slept on the 8-9-10 pick 3 at Saratoga and thought I'd spend some time this morning building out my final thoughts and creating bet strategy.
The Turk isn't a high volume gambler. There was a time in my life when I had lots of time to handicap, build bets and just watch the results. I did that for years while I worked a job that had me sitting in a room watching computers for 12 hours at a time. I did my job, did it well, but always had the race form nearby for a few minutes of handicapping. The day would begin with reading the results in the sports page, an era when you could easily find limited results on the full card in each daily paper. Over the years, I've become a selective player, mostly vertical betting of stakes races. I gamble judiciously. I realize when I gamble my edge goes away when the public has more information or is just as knowledgeable about the runners as I am. Chalks are chalkier and wise guy horses mostly represent a way to look smart on Twitter before the race is actually run. How to find an edge in stakes? Video and Trip Handicapping has become a bigger tool for me over the years. I can glean information from the PPs but sometimes just slowing down to watch a two minute race in snapshots at points of call can really draw a picture.
Let's take a closer look at the Grade 2 Lake Placid 1 1/8 Miles on SOFT Mellon Turf.
G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational: 1 1/4 Miles Firm BEL turf:
Let's pay attention to:
- Thewayiam (Fr): Light Blue/Pink Diamond #8 Pink Cloth with Black number
- Capla Temptress (Ire): Forest green, Crimson Triangular panel: #4 Yellow (Gold) cloth with black numbers.
- Significant Form: Dark Green, Light Green Sash, White: #1 Red with White Number
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| Top of Stretch- Belmont Oaks Invitational |
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| Athena makes her move |
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| Deep Stretch-no excuses #8/#1 |
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| Tight Quarters after Athena on the wire |
Hard to make excuses for Significant Form in particular. While there may have been a bit of a bump, I. Ortiz was uncovered and lacked response. Her Timeform late pace value of 79 seems valid here. The cutback of 1/8 of a mile and class drop can't hurt.
I like how Thewayiam (Fr) competed for positioning. 9 of 11 in the money. I'm considering she might like the turf softer than others here.
Mott's Capla Temptress (Ire) looked the part of a 59 Early/102 late pace form. I really liked her late and with a ML of 6-1 I think she's a great Place candidate in the Exacta.
G3 Lake George: 1 1/16 on SAR outer (Mellon) Turf
- Daddy is a Legend: Florescent orange/Chartreuse Sash, Hot; #3 Horse Blue with White Number
- Andina Del Sur: Orange, Green Sleeves with Two White Hoops; #5 Green with White Number
One picture, whole story. Andina Del Sur tracked along at at the top of the stretch found herself needing to split horses. The gap seemed there, she did not and she stayed on flat in the pack. Daddy is a Legend? With Franco up, the Red Sea parted, the rail was uncontested and she was gone with a pedestrian:29.25 final 5/16ths.
G3 Wonder Again Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Bel Inner Turf
- Andina Del Sur: Orange, Green Sleeves with Two White Hoops; #6 Black Cloth with Gold Number
- Daddy is a Legend: Florescent orange/Chartreuse Sash, Hot; #8 Pink Cloth with Black number
- Significant Form: Dark Green, Light Green Sash, White: #5 Green with White Number
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| 1/2 Mile Pole |
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| Wonder Again-Wire 3/5 sec gap |
Paceless really: The winner was 3 1/2 lengths in front at 1/2 mile and the three we are paying attention to are stretched out in the next three spots over 7-8 lengths. At the wire, same line, a bit more bunched, same order.
G2 Appalachian: 1 Mile over yielding turf at KEE
- Rushing Fall Neon green, Purple Ball, Green 'E'; #2 White Cloth with Black Number.
- Thewayiam (Fr) #9
- Daddy is a Legend #1
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| Turn to 1 Mile Finish |
Daddy is a Legend cracks under the drive of Rushing Fall. Thewayiam (Fr) really comes at Rushing Fall in last 1/16 of a mile. Have we seen anything to believe that Daddy is a Legend will want more ground? This was listed as yielding. Thewayiam seemed to like the footing as did Rushing Fall. Small sample size with three year olds.
Penn Oaks $200K; 1 Mile on Firm Turf
Thewayiam (Fr) making a big run again between 15/16ths and 1 mile.
What to make of this?
I think I'm favoring Thewayiam (Fr) catching Rushing Fall in the last hops. Capla Temptress (Ire) is live at a big price and Significant Form is most likely a step better than Capla Temptress (Ire). Daddy is a Legend seems like a minor prize at best.
As predicted, the rains have taken the 10th race off the turf and the grass is listed as Soft. No scratches yet in the 8th and the 9th. Keep your eye on this NYRA link for up to date information.
Have fun with it.
