Post Race Analysis for Race Day July 4, 2009: The Salvator Mile at Monmouth

There were a bountiful of good races yesterday, a little bit for everyone and suitable for any one's particular taste. There was also hotdogs, grilled vegetables, and assorted other distractions to limit my handicapping to just a few races. The race I keyed on with my time limitations was the Salvator Mile at Monmouth. I thought it was a race ripe for an exotic payout, and there is nothing more American then hitting the easy score when it presents itself. That good looking colt in the Vanessa Ng photo is the winner of the 2009 Salvator Mile, Coal Play.

Race 9 Mth: The Salvator Mile Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



In my pre-race handicap I identified a dividing line in talent that I thought separated the top four from the rest of the field. The line turned out to be a head, as Two Step Salsa's head beating Kiss the Kid, whose neck beat The Roundhouse, kept my simple but effective handicap viable.

Coal Play struck to the front by the first call point of the race and never surrendered the lead. Smooth Air, my expected winner, drifted very wide in the stretch but had enough left to finish strong.

I went with one bet: I boxed a $1 Superfecta Bet on my base handicap. I think my restraint was partially because of the limited time I had to think about betting. It's something I should do more often, place a decisive bet and move along. My $24 investment returned $227.90. To anyone who'll say all I did was box the top four of the tote board my answer is no: I handicapped the race. That's what I do. My analysis placed those four at the top of my handicap hours before the tote board placed them there. My quick math told me the superfecta was worth somewhere between 180 and 250 dollars. If that's chalk chasing, I'll do it everyday!

Have Fun. There are some good races today and I may try one on for size later. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 4, 2009: The Salvator Mile at Monmouth Park

United Nations Day at Monmouth as our country celebrates Independence Day. The fine looking animal to the left in the Vanessa Ng photo is the 2008 winner of the Salvator Mile, Notional, with J. Bravo up.

I haven't handicapped Monmouth much since October 2007 and the Breeder's Cup. I was enjoying a phenomenal handicapping day when the emotional high came tumbling down with the breakdown and death of George Washington following the Breeder's Cup Classic. On as patriotic a day as we celebrate every year, I'd like to take just a moment and remember the horse named after the father of our country. It's important to me to remember that this game we play sometimes ends tragically and just as I honor the human dead, I hope all horseplayers retain enough compassion to remember our dead runners.

It's suppose to be a good weather day at Monmouth. For anyone concerned about track condition and current weather, you'll find the Monmouth Park website very useful.

Race 9 Mth Post Time 4:50 ET: The Salvator Mile GIII; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm backing Smooth Air to win right now and if that changes as the day goes on I'll update. I don't generally like first time with a new trainer horses, something Trainer Brown has done 59 times and won 17% of. It's Smooth Air's first time at Mth as well. He is 9 of 10 in the money on fast dirt, 2 of 2 in the money at the distance and 13 of 15 lifetime starts in the money. The Grade II winner gave Bribon all he could handle at the Met Mile on Memorial Day. He may be the post time chalk, so if he doesn't look good in the paddock or post parade I may jump off of him quickly and look for win bets where there is more value.

Two Step Salsa, campaigning under the royal blue silks of Godolphin, is a Grade II winner and is making his 2nd North American start since wintering in Dubai and doing very well there to boot. G. "home is where the heart is" Gomez leaves his California home and is up today. Trainer of record bin Suroor has good stats on 2nd off 45-180, winning 37% of the time and 20% of Graded Stakes. 7 out of 11 of Two Step Salsa's lifetime starts are on turf or synth.

Solar Flare interests me greatly. His current form indicates he may be running as good as he was in June 2008 before he had a late season swoon. Trainer Jones has super stats so I won't run down the list, but 26% in 31-60 day layoffs and 33% Graded Stakes pop out. Solar Flare won at Monmouth in late May. Lots to like and will force me to either box my exotics or place him at the top on multiple tickets.

Trainer Zito and last year's winning jock Bravo are here with Coal Play, a head scratcher of a runner. 4 of 4 in the money at Monmouth, 2 of 3 at this distance and coming off a 105 BSF performance at BEL at this distance on June 10th. Coal Play gave Big Brown all he could handle in last year's Haskel. The son of Mineshaft could win, but is talented enough to be in the top four. Zito's WON LAST START stat is 33% on 100 races.

Happy 4th of July. The Turk will be celebrating with the Turk Clan on Poppa Turk's deck, a few short steps from the sat TV feed of the races. For the record, Mrs. Turk likes The Roundhouse here, a good win bet at 6-1 for the talented but erratic Pletcher trainee and Little Turk is backing Solar Flare.

10 Cent supers are in fashion here. I'll be exotic hunting.

Rest in Peace Gorgeous George Washington.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day July 1, 2009; The Dominion Day Handicap G III at WO

The one that got away!

When you take a strong stand on one horse and you key your handicap with that horse finishing in a particular spot, its inevitable that the horse will occasionally let you down. Sometimes its a bad trip. Sometimes he just didn't feel like running. I'm trying to follow my own advice and let it go. It's not easy when you pick horse 2, 3 and 4 in exact order and your Win horse falters to fifth. Spilled milk, boo-hoo. The Turk will have none of that. That fine looking horse in the Cindy Pierson Dulay photo is Marchfield, the winner of The Dominion Day Handicap as he crosses the line winning the Autumn GII at WO last year.

Race 8 WO: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III; 1 1/4 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and up.



A couple of things I take from this: I was correct in taking a strong stand against Vacation. I'm not sure why the track handicapper set his Morning Line so high and I'm not sure why the bettors picked him over the fine local talent. His post time odds were ridiculous and made no sense.

Ice Bear was poised and in a good spot to fire to the front but just didn't go for Ms. Sutherland.

Sometimes you can have a pretty good handicap and still walk away empty handed. In order to have cashed a Super I would have had to included Cool Gator in my box. That wasn't going to happen. I should have and could have hit the Trifecta, but that would have required a four horse box and those are the kind of pricy bets I try to avoid, especially when the four I would have boxed were so well representing the top of the tote board. Let it go.

The Appleton Turk, bless her heart, has been infected with the horse betting bug. She took a strong stand with Michael's Bad Boy. She lost sure, but the horse was the bettor's 4th choice and her $10 win bet would have returned $70. She's given up lottery tickets in search of horse racing glory. For those about to rock, we salute you!

The Turk is already at work on two races at Monmouth for the 4th of July. I'm leaning towards Smooth Air in the Salvator Mile and I have no stong opinion yet, but Bancock at attractive odds might be my choice for the United Nations on the turf to win.

There is some great horse talk to be found at the the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page. Check out Rob at Amateur Capper and Geno at Equispace and you'll find two heavy hitters in the horse blogging world.

Turk Out!

Dominion Day Handicap Changes and Important News for all Bourbon Lovers

The Turk is still looking at the Dominion Day Handicap as a place to make money mid work week.

Woodbine's website lists the following changes for today's race 8 POST TIME is 4:29 ET.

These changes added at 7/1/2009 11:44:44 AM Eastern Time

WOODBINE THOROUGHBRED
EARLY CHANGES

WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY 19C (65F)
TRACK: Poly TURF: Off

RACE 8
#3 EQUITABLE +3
#7 TIGER BUD SCRATCHED
#8 PERFECT BULLET TWO #3 SHOES


Tiger Bud being scratched doesn't change the handicap one iota. It does make the field a bit smaller, but we'll live. Ice Bear is still my chalk but watch the tote and work your handicap appropriately.

The Appleton Turk is feelin' Michael's Bad Boy. He was a ML 8-1 and I don't think it's a bad $2 win bet.


The following press release came to me from my friends at the Kentucky Bourbon Trail

For Immediate Release – July 1, 2009

CELEBRATE JULY 4TH WITH AMERICA’S ONLY NATIVE SPIRIT

FRANKFORT, Ky. – Several of Kentucky’s signature bourbon distilleries will be open on Saturday, July 4th so you can celebrate the birth of our nation with America’s official native spirit.

“The rich tradition of Kentucky bourbon is intertwined with our nation’s storied past,” said Eric Gregory, president of the Kentucky Distillers’ Association. “It’s fueled the economy of Kentucky and played a vital role in the culture, heritage and history of America.”

In fact, George Washington had the largest whiskey distillery in the 18th century, Gregory said.

Visitors can learn more about Kentucky bourbon along the famous Kentucky Bourbon Trail®. Several of the Trail’s eight legendary distilleries are open during this holiday weekend. All hours are Eastern Standard Time:

Buffalo Trace, Frankfort – open Friday 9 a.m. to 3 p.m., Saturday 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., closed Sunday.

Four Roses, Lawrenceburg – open Friday and Saturday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., last tour at 3:00 p.m., closed Sunday.

Heaven Hill, Bardstown – open Friday and Saturday, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m., Sunday noon to 4 p.m.

Jim Beam, Clermont – open Friday and Saturday, 9 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Sunday 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.

Maker’s Mark, Loretto – open Friday and Saturday, 10:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., Sunday tours 1:30, 2:30 and 3:30 p.m.

Tom Moore, Bardstown – Closed for tours Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Wild Turkey, Lawrenceburg – Tours Friday at 9 a.m., 10:30 a.m., 12:30 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. Gift shop will be open from 9 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Closed on Saturday and Sunday.

Woodford Reserve, Versailles – Tours Friday at 10 a.m., 11 a.m., 1 p.m., 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Closed Saturday. Tours on Sunday at 1 p.m., 2 p.m. and 3 p.m.

Visit www.kybourbontrail.com for more information on the Kentucky Bourbon Trail.

Good stuff. Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: July 1, 2009: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III at Woodbine

The Cindy Pierson Dulay photo to the left is Ice Bear with the lovely Chantal Sutherland up. Ice Bear is The Turk's chalk in Wednesday's Dominion Day Handicap at Woodbine. To the uninformed, July 1st is a holiday in Canada, as they celebrate their independence from England (and announce their dependence on Tim Horton's coffee).

The installed morning line favorite is Vacation. The 4 YO Dynaformer colt is a good runner, coming off a Grade III win at 1 Mile at Arlington in late May and has been training very sharply at Belmont since. I don't think this colt will go to the starting post as the favorite, but we'll see.

Race 8 WO Post Time 4:29 ET: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III; 1 1/4 on Fake Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm leaning towards regular Woodbine runners in this race. Ice Bear is 6 of 11 in the money at Woodbine and is a Grade III winner. Trainer Benson's and Ms. Sutherland have combined to win 64% of their 11 races together.

I like Marchfield to Place. He's placed behind Ice Bear twice before and beat him once. He has a PP filled with deep closing and he's 9 of 10 races in the money at Woodbine and regular rider Husbands up.

For now I'm inserting Approval Rating in the Show position. Trainer Jordan wins 43% of his races on fake dirt and when combined with Jock Mcaleney they win 45% of the time, based on a staggering 93 races together and the 5 YO son of Lemon Drop Kid is 6 of 6 in the money at Woodbine.

Where does Vacation fit in? Short answer is I dunno yet. I'm not a fan of boxing unnecessarily, but Vacation could finish anywhere on the board. I don't like his 3 wins in 19 starts or the fact it's his first WO start, but I like J. Velazquez up, I like the string of 90+ BSF he is posting and I think he hasn't run his best race yet.

Equitable is making his second start off a long layoff. I like the A.P. Indy colt who put up a 5f in :59 2/5ths a week ago. He's most likely my 5th and last horse I'll insert into any of my Tri's. Super's are being taken for this race as well.

I don't generally handicap this far in advance so I will update as we get closer.

There is some great writing going on at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. Check out the new homepage and you'll find some of the best voices from the new and old media talking up the horse game from every different angle. The Foolish Pleasure should be a must read for all fans of the game.

Have fun. Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 27, 2009; The King Edward Grade II at WO

A good race for the race fan in me. Pre-Race, I lamented the difference between being a race fan and a bettor. It's as big a gulf as the difference between handicapper and bettor, perhaps with more passion.

I'm a fan of Rahy's Attorney. He thrilled me with his Woodbine Mile win last year. I backed him in the Connaught Cup and he came up a bit short. Even yesterday I wasn't sure his current form was better then his challengers, so I backed Sterwins. The calculating bettor in me went against him and I fought the race fan in me who wanted to back him. Duality and dichotomy have no real place in this game.

Before I get all misty eyed and weepy, remember The Turk isn't a an advocate of betting to feel good. I handicap many races I never bet. I love the mental challenge, but when I bet, I bet to win. Win means different things to different people. To the Turk it means betting small dollars (generally less then $15/race) and turning it into either the same amount or a slightly bigger amount. Positive cash flow. While being happy for Rahy's Attorney return with panache (a new course record at 1:44.73), I was positive cash as well.

Race 7 WO: The King Edward Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on Canadian Turf for 3 YO and Up.



Because of the small field and the amount of heavily bet favorites who I knew would be in the top three, I declined any boxed bets. Instead I fashioned Tri bets based on my base handicap with Sterwins/Rahy's Attorney and I had one ticket with Society's Chairman and one with Baletti. Those went bust.

Round two I flipped Rahy's/Sterwins and placed Society's Chairman and Balletti on separate tickets for Show. That was the winner, and my $8 wagered returned $39.90.

I'm not really sure why the betting public liked Baletti so much. He ran a nice Allowance race recently with a 101 BSF, but betting him down that low against Grade II warriors like Sterwins and Rahy's Attorney wasn't reasonable.

The Bison City $250,000 is today at WO at 3:27 ET. It's 1 1/16 on fake dirt for Canadian foaled 3 YO fillies. We'll be back for that I reckon.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: June 27, 2009: The King Edward Handicap Grade II at WO

Deja Vu. Flash forward from May 24th and the top combatants are back at it again from the Connaught Cup Grade III at WO, run at 1 1/16 on Turf. Today's Grade II King Edward, run at 1 1/8 on Turf I reckon will have the same results. Before I go to far, in case you didn't see the news yet either, Terrain did pass away last night after he was injured in the Iowa Derby. He was my chalk in last night's affair and I never like to see that happen.

That fine looking colt pictured is Sterwins, winner of the before mentioned Connaught Cup.

Race 7 WO Post Time 4:01 ET: The King Edward Grade II; 1 1/8 on Turf for 3 YO and Up.



I'm semi-tempted to flip Sterwins and Rahy's Attorney but I can't make a strong enough argument that Turk favorite Rahy's Attorney is in better current form. It is his second race back after a long layoff, and I do believe he is a better horse. It's tough to be a horse fan AND a serious bettor, as conflicts do arise. It's a three horse race in my mind, but Baletiiis interesting and could upset the exotic cart.

Again, my sympathy to Terrain, trainer Stall and her owners.