|Highland Reel (Ire)- Jesse Caris, Eclipse Sportswire|
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. Friends, I'm a handicapper and gambler first and blogger second, and its days like today when I'm handicapping a lot of races with a bunch of racetrack capital in play that the needle moves more towards degenerate and less towards writer. I wanted to at least blog my full thoughts about one race before I get lost in the gambling action and I choose one of the harder mysteries for players, the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf. What makes it hard? Usually a very big field of outstanding Euro invaders along with the best in the division from North America. It's complicated by Euros that mostly run on softer ground, speed figs that don't align Beyer's and pace projections that can be challenging to predict. I find the complexity of the issues the fun part and armed with two sets of Past Performances, a US Timeform and a DRF Formulator, I try to tackle this one head on. Let's get it on!
I'm looking to the best from North America this year, Beach Patrol, as my chalk. Chad Brown has Rosario up again (29% winners) and they have won two straight, including last time out Belmont Turf Classic G1 and the Arlington Million G1 before that. I love the 4 YO's drive and acceleration.
I see little difference in my next group. Ulysses (Ire) is a very classy 4 YO Galileo (Ire) son with impressive Sir Michael Stoute training and Dettori, up. I expect he will be the chalk: 6 of 6 in the money in 2017 with $2.2 MM in earnings. His Juddmonte International G1 win in late August was impressive.
Hunt (Ire) I have more forward that I possibly should have him but I love his two summer 2017 Del Mar Grade 2 wins. No, he didn't really beat anyone in either win. I did like Itsinthe post (Fr) in the Del Mar Handicap.
Highland Reel (Ire) and Oscar Performance make up my next grouping. Highland Reel (Ire) is the defending champ for Trainer Aidan O'Brien, and his last strong performance was Prince of Wales Stakes G1 in June.
Oscar Performance is 4 of 6 in the money in 2017 with $1.1 MM in earnings. 6 wins in 10 turf starts but winless at the distance in only 1 try. I don't like 3 YO's in this spot.
Fanciful Angel and Sadler's Joy have nice late turns of foot and should be moving forward near the end of the race. Decorated Knight and Bigger Picture round out my contenders to hit the board.
Have fun with it friends. Good luck with the gambling.
I'd be remiss to not remember George Washington, who died at the end of the Breeders' Cup Classic 10 years ago. Gorgeous George was one of my all time favorites and it bothered me to see him brought out of retirement and then run over that sloppy course. He deserved better. Rest in Peace George.
|George Washington as I want to remember him|