Sunday, October 28, 2018

Breeders' Cup 2018 Handicapping Homework: The Breeders' Cup Turf Video Review

Breeders' Cup Turf; Photo Harry How/Getty Images

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

The purpose of this post is to provide the last two and sometimes three races of each entrant in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf. 

The goal one week out is just to get a feel for the runners and link the past performances to the visual handicapping.  I'll come back tomorrow and start adding my notes and observations for each race.  It's alot of effort that I'll only invest into 3, perhaps 4 races over the coming Breeders' Cup weekend.  Any other betting I do will be done using a tote board handicapping method, strictly taking some low risk/medium reward cracks at positive ROI.

The following are covered here:

  • Arlow 4 YO colt.  Sycamore, Kentucky Turf Cup. 
  • Channel Maker 4 YO gelding.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
  • Crystal Ocean (GB) 4 YO colt.  Championship Stakes and September Stakes.
  • Enable (GB) 4 YO Mare.  Prix Arc de Triomphe and September Stakes.
  • Glorious Empire (Ire) 7 YO gelding.   Sword Dancer and Bowling Green.
  • Hi Happy (Arg) 6 YO Horse.  Knickerbocker, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green and Manhattan
  • Hunting Horn (Ire) 3 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe and Secretariat Stakes
  • Liam the Charmer 5 YO gelding.  John Henry Turf Championship
  • Magical (Ire) 3 YO Filly.  British Championship Stakes and Arc de Triomphe
  • Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) 4 YO colt. Mathias Machline.  
  • Roaring Lion 3 YO colt.  QE2 Stakes and Irish Championship Stakes
  • Robert Bruce (Chi) 4 YO Colt.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Arlington Million
  • Sadler's Joy 5 YO horse.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
  • Talismanic (GB) 5 YO Horse (2017 BC Turf Winner).  Arc de Triomphe and Prix Foy
  • Waldgeist (GB) 4 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe, Prix Foy, Prix Saint Cloud

Return back to my blog, The Turk and the Little Turk,  all week leading up to the Breeders' Cup for more content.

The Sycamore G3:  Kee.  Good Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  18 October 2018

The Kentucky Turf Cup G3;  Kentucky Downs. Good Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  8 Sept 2018

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational G1. Belmont.  Soft Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  29 September 2018

Sword Dancer G1: Saratoga.  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  25 August 2018

September Stakes G3: Kempton (UK).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  8 September 2018

Knickerbocker G2;  Belmont. Good Turf.  1 1/8 Miles.  8 October 2018

The Bowling Green G2;  Saratoga.  Soft Turf. 1 3/8 Miles.   28 July 2018

Secretariat Stakes G1; Arlington Park.  Good Turf.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018

Prix de l' Arc de Triomphe G1.  Longchamp (Fr).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  7 October 2018

Champions Stakes G1. Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf.  1 1/4 Miles RH. 20 October 2018

John Henry Turf Championship G2.  Santa Anita.  Firm. 1 1/4 Miles.  30 September 2018

British Championship Stakes G1 (F).  Ascot (GB). Soft Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 20 Oct 2018

Magical (IRE)

Mathias Machline (G1).  Gavea (Brz). Heavy Turf. 1 1/4 Miles LH.  4 August 2018

The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes G1.  Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf. 1 Mile.  20 Oct 2018

Irish Championship Stakes G1.  Leopardstown (Ire).  Good.  1 1/4 Miles  LH.  15 September 2018

Arlington Million G1.  Arlington Park.  Firm.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018

Manhattan Stakes G1.  Belmont.  Firm Turf. 1 1/4 Miles. 9 June 2018

Prix Foy G2. Longchamp (Fr). Firm. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 16 September 2018

Prix de Saint Cloud G1.  Saint Cloud (Fr).  Good/Soft.  1 1/2 Miles LH. 1 July 2018

Saturday, October 20, 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Dowager G3 over Turf at Keeneland

Photo by: Keeneland
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

I've wanted to play Keeneland for the past few weeks but work was busy, I was traveling quite a bit, and I just ran out of time.  With few graded stakes left in the meet, I think Sunday's Dowager is my last opportunity for 2018.

I don't play Keeneland very much.  Like, Del Mar, I gave up on the track during the fake dirt years.  The 19.5% takeout on Exactas (NYRA currently 18.5%, Arlington on Million Day 20.5%) is high but that's not a cross I carry around like many social media whales, my investing volumes are too low to get hung up on that.  I think I just have other options usually and it's not a track that I'm quick to play.  That said, I love the grounds, the tradition and the turf course especially.

I'm taking a bit of a handicapper's holiday over past few weeks as I gear up for Breeders' Cup Weekend.  I did however blog, and win, The Laurel Park Maryland Million Classic Exacta, providing a $1 dollar bet for $24 that returned $82.10.  Low risk, good reward.

Anyway, lets get after this 1 1/2 mile Turf affair at Keeneland.  Expect cold but dry conditions.  The turf was yielding today but you can find the latest here, part of Keeneland's player friendly website.  Laurel Park: You need to step up your web services!

I like the betting potential of this race that is lacking serious chalk.  I identified Daring Duchess and Savannah Belle as my top two. 

Daring Duchess is 6 of 9 in the money at this distance and 13 of 26 in the money over grass.  The 6 YO mare from Arch is winless in 5 KEE starts with only 1 Place to show for those trips.  Added 6 pounds from last time out.  A flat runner, I'll expect her on or near the pace the whole way.  If the turf is Yielding or Soft I'll like her less although she had a nice outing over good turf at this distance two races back.

4 YO Savannah Belle is trained by Brian Lynch, a 22% stakes winner but also only 1 win in 7 starts at KEE over past rolling year.  295 Tomlinson at the distance with an asterisk for sample size, she does have a Place at this distance, making her the only other to hit the board at this distance besides Daring Duchess.  Late runner. 

Vexatious was winless in six starts as a 3 YO last year and has only 2  wins in 12 starts lifetime.  1  win in 4 turf starts and last time out her running line was "...passed tiring foes" as she finished 6 1/4 lengths back at today's distance. A winner at 1 3/8 miles at Del Mar in August in a minor stake.  7 dirt starts.  Classy and ready for a breakout possibly.  Late runner.

Amboseli hasn't done much lately.  The 6 YO has only 3 Show finishes to show for her last 10 starts over past two seasons.  13 of 22 in the money lifetime with 8 Shows in 22 starts.  Late runner.

Res Ipsa is a 5 YO English Channel with a great closing turn of foot.  Winless in 6 starts in 2018, 12 of 21 lifetime in the money over grass.  First time at the distance but ran well at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16 miles.  Last win past 1 mile?  October 2017 at KEE in a $70K Alw at 1 1/16.

My three wildcards are:

 English Affair who is coupled to Trainer Arnold and Pilot B. Hernandez, a combo that wins 23% of the time at KEE. Winless in 4 starts in 2018 and first time at this distance.  First KEE start.  6 of 9 in the money over grass lifetime.  Bullet work, 1st of 54 at 4f at CD over dirt this month. 

Viva Vegas also makes first start at distance.  The 4 YO The Factor daughter as you would expect has a 315 Tomlinson with an asterisk.  Placed in G3 Violet at Monmouth. Early speed.

Shezaprado is slow out of gate but has 111 Timeform US Pace fig late.  226 Tomlinson at the distance which the 4 YO Filly has tried once.  5 wins in 17 turf starts.  Last win two races back on 6 Sept at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16.  She ran back 7 days later and made a mild bid and then followed that up with a work at KEE earlier this month.

I'm tossing 3 YO Rahway and  main track specialist Beach Flower from my exactas, maybe foolishly at least with Rahway.  Sired by Eskendereya, has a KEE win aand a bullet work over turf earlier this month.  I'm a bit intrigued at what should be a big price. 

What to do with all this?  I'll be assembling an exacta but I want to see the toteboard odds before I lock in. a $1  5-3 OVER 10-6-8-1-2-4-9 for $16 is my initial thought.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out.

Friday, October 19, 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Maryland Million Classic at Laurel Park

Jim McKay.  Photo: Blood Horse
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing analysis blog serving a rabid audience since 2008.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to talk to their members and readers of The Handicappers Corner as well.

Jim McKay, a 40+ year legendary broadcaster of sports loved horse racing and he loved his home state of Maryland. You could say Jim was inspired to create the Maryland Million Day after attending the 1984 Breeders' Cup, the first one, at Hollywood Park (Ehalt, 2016).    He envisioned a spectacular day of championship racing, and one that highlighted Maryland Breds and Maryland Sires.  It is Maryland Racing's day.  His vision has never been more apparent to me after looking at the Past Performances for The Maryland Million Classic, the feature race, with the best three horses Also Eligible, including last years winner, Bonus Points.  It's doubtful that 9-5 ML Hammerin Aamer, 5-2 Belfour and 7-5 Bonus Points  reach the gate because they "...are Maryland-bred but not Maryland-sired and, thus, not likely to draw in.  Maryland Million races are limited to Maryland-sired horses as long as six or more face the starter. With 10 Maryland-sired runners entered in the Classic, it’s exceedingly unlikely that any of the also-eligible runners will end up in the race" (Vespe, 2018)."  

So what do we have on our hands?  A wide open, very interesting betting race.  Let's Get after it!

I think there is a a slight chance Crouchelli scratches as the 3 YO is entered in the 10th as well.  At the time of writing this I can't determine that yet.  If any of the top three are entered it completely changes my thinking and I'm singling that horse to win and playing some longer prices below below for the exacta.  If two of those three horses make the starting field, I most likely pass on the betting opportunity.

Let's assume none of them are in the gate for our purposes.

I have a group of three I'm looking at to win, with Admiral Blue, Flash McCaul and Saratoga Bob all about the same to me.  Of them:

  • 1 win at the distance, Admiral Blue, who is 3 of 8 in the money at the distance.  
  • No last time winners.  Only Admiral Blue hit the board, a Show finish in a $50K Claimer
  • Admiral Blue is winless in 15 fast dirt tries. 
  • Admiral Blue drops 6 pounds from last time out
I think I just made my tepid case for Admiral Blue as my chalk for the race.  From the 9 spot he'll need his early tactical speed to position himself.  I'm torn on where he's breaking from and trip and pace will be key if he is going to break his fast dirt goose egg.

I think Flash McCaul will enter the gate as the bettors favorite.  8 of 17 in the money at Laurel Park with 3 wins, but none at the distance.  The five year old breaks for 25% winner at Laurel Park, conditioner Michael Trombetta.  His post draw is good and its conceivable he will be well positioned to let out his late speed.  

Saratoga Bob is 6 of 7 in the money at Laurel Park and on fast dirt, but the distance is new.  Prado up for Trainer Voss.  His race 2 back, a 6F $38.5K Alw, he came back from a bad start, was five wide, and had a great closing kick.  His last race out he was bumped at start, 5 wide and faded.  

As I'm looking at this field, I like Clubman, Pal Cal, Dothatdance and Crouchelli as possible place finishers.  

Clubman trains well with two sharp bullet works on his past performance line and he has improving Beyers.  Hideous performance in the afternoons though as he's winless in 4 starts in 2018 and winless at the distance.  5 wins in 16 starts in 2017.  Of the group of non potential winners I've listed he's the one that could throw that apple cart over.  I need to see what the bettors think of him just before post time but I'm expecting they will like him as possibly 2nd best of the field.

I'm not sure what I'm doing with all of this yet, but exacta and 10 cent Super is most likely what I'll construct.  An idea of a 10 Cent Super is:

3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-6-7-9 for $28.40.  I typed it, I read it, and I mostly hate it.  I'll sharpen my pencil and hone in on something more like:

3-4-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 1-2-5-7-8-10 for $9.60.  

I just gave you two Supers and I can't say I like either very much, but they are plausible.  I prefer Exactas and I'll be playing some version of combination in my base Handicap with possible winners 9-4-7-3 and Possible Place 6-2-1.  If I just bundle that together:

$1 exacta 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9-6-2-1  $24.  I think I'm close to what my bet will look like now and I'll forget those Supers.

Have fun friends.

Turk Out!

References Cited

Ehalt, Bob.  2016, October 10.  Legacy of Jim McKay: Beloved Racing Voice and Visionaire.  Web.  America's Best Racing.  Retrieved from:

Vespe, Frank.  2018 Oct 17.  Md. Million Classic: Trainers Voss and Maldonado approaching from Different Directions.  Web.  The Racing Biz.  Retrieved from:

Saturday, September 29, 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Joe Hirsch-Photo by Blood Horse

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.   Joe Hirsch, known as the Dean of American Turf Racing has been gone over over 9 years now, but with a Grade One race, The Turf Classic, names after him, he's far from forgotten.

Such a different era on so many different levels.  the County was different, horse racing was prominent, journalists were respected, integrity and ethics were everything.  It's amazing to me how as a society we have devolved the institutions of news reporting, in my humble opinion set in motion by a perfect storm of deregulation, the treating of news media as entertainment, the collapse of print and the rise of the internet, where any half-ass blogger or tweeter can say anything in a few pithy sentences and have it read more often, by more people, than any long form writer could hope for.

The American's of Joe Hirsch's heyday had to get the paper and read the words written about the greats of turf.  For me, it was waiting for Sports Illustrated and the writing of another great voice, Bill Nack, or listening to Jim McKay on ABC Sports on the weekend.  The Turk is none of those men.  I am neither a trained journalist or a professional writer.  What I do have in common with them is ethics and integrity.  I try to express my views and opinions on the sport of horse racing, and handicapping in particular, with honesty.  There is enough of fake news in our world, I try not to add to that blight. I'm not a tout, as four a four-letter word as there are to me.  I'm also neither part of the online horse racing intelligentsia that chimes in from some moral high ground tweeting disdain for anyone deemed not worthy.  If you are reading the Turk, and I know who you are,  all I can offer is my love of the horses above all else, my thirty years of reading past performances and analyzing the repeating patterns of them and my bet construction thoughts.  Know this:  I'm not trying to get rich betting the races.  I'm game is purely to carve out positive ROI over a long period of time and this platform of mine, now in it's tenth year, most likely isn't going to change much.  If that's cool with you, thanks and let's get after this race!

The weather is dry but the tracks are soaked.  This one however is on the turf which I'm handicapping as Soft/Yielding.  By the way, I've already handicapped The Vosburg, which is on the dirt, currently listed as Good but I have hopes it will be Fast later today.

Five of the eight entries here last raced in the 1 1/2 Mile Sword Dancer on Travers Day (missing: Robert Bruce, Carrick and Teodoro)

Sword Dancer G1:  1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf SAR

Four the entrants went in The Bowling Green on soft surface.

Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles Soft Turf SAR

Robert Bruce (Chi) looking pretty strong swinging wide and closing at the Arlington Million.  Below you'll see him run a subtle 6th place finish but close to the winner in a blanket at The Manhattan. 

Arlington Million G1 : 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf AP

6 lengths back at the 1/8 pole.  Very strong showing indeed.

Here we have Carrick, a lightly raced 3 YO coming in from good turf at 1 1/4 Miles.  2 of 2 at Belmont, 4 of 4 in the money over turf.

The Secretariat G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Good Turf AP

The Manhattan G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf BEL

I watched a bunch of video as well this morning on Twinspires TV of Teodoro (Ire).  Lasix for first time, drops 5 pounds, cuts back in distance.  Very inconsistent.  Isn't chalk overseas. I'm passing for now.

What do we do with this information?  I can't say I have a very strong opinion as The Turk fair line illustrates.

I'm thinking low risk exacta where I'm purely hunting for value.  I may just put Channel Maker on top with four or five of the field below him.  Something like 8 OVER 3-6-1-2-7 for $5.  Perhaps that's a bet that you hit only 20% of the time, maybe less, but the reward is worth the capital risk, and you must face it, capital risk is part of any game where you hand 20+% back to the house before you even start. 

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

Thursday, September 27, 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Vosburgh G1 at Belmont

Imperial Hint- Photo Breeders' Cup website/Gulfstream Park
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, which just days ago celebrated 10 years of handicapping and bet construction.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts  with their readers.

Today's effort is The Vosburgh, a 6f Grade 1 on the dirt at Belmont Park.

Pictured is Imperial Hint.  Readers of The Turk know I have a general disdain for morning lines and I usually avoid most racing news articles in advance of handicapping.  Why?  I find that sort of information can bias my thoughts and I try to avoid preconceived notions and confirmation bias.  I print my past performances without the Morning Lines, I build my Fair Line Odds and only then do I look at the Morning Lines.  I had a feeling when I looked at the past performances that Imperial Hint would be a big Morning Line, and 1-5 didn't really surprise me.  Not only is the 5 YO son of Imperialism a truly dominant sprinter, this field is pretty unspectacular.  the remaining six horses in this field, in their last two races each or over 12 races we have:

  • 1 Graded Stake:  Mr Crow who also raced (4th - 8 1/4 back) in the Vanderbilt G1 with Imperial Hint.
  • 4 Claiming Races $32-$50
  • 3 Optional Claimers$35-$80K
  • 1 $25K Allowance
  • 3 $97 Stakes
Imperial Hint has $1.2 MM in career earnings and the rest of the field $1.4 MM.  

While I have no preconceived notion of the handicap, I do have an early idea of my bet construction plan when I see this sort of pattern forming with a heavy chalk and an unheralded field.  I'm thinking low risk exactas with Imperial Hint on top and two or three of the longest prices entering the gate in Place for now more than $6 bucks or so OR 3 or 4 of the mid sized prices over Imperial Hint for no more that $8 bucks. 

Friday sees the end of a rainy week and most of Friday and Saturday looks dry.  Expect a fast track.  You'll find the link to NYRA/Belmont here for track condition, scratches and changes, etc. 

Let's get after this!

Let's start with the whale, Imperial Hint

Vanderbilt G1: 6f on good dirt.  A complete handride by Castellano.  Dominance.

The True North G2: 6 1/2 f on Fast Dirt.

Imperial Hint is training exceptionally well;  six straight bullet workouts with lots of company(19,10,26,18,61,43).  8 of last ten races 100+ Beyer.  7 Wins in 10 starts at the distance.  Only finish out of the money in 2018 was on the slop at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day.

 The Churchill Downs Grade 2: 7f on sealed slop.

Silver Ride has always been a bit of a tease but its hard to believe, the gelded son of Candy Ride (Arg) is 6 YO.  9 of 16 Lifetime in the money over fast dirt with 429 Tomlinson on Wet Dirt and 408 Tomlinson at the distance but only 1 win in 7 tries at 6f.  Adding 4 pounds from last effort, The Tale of the Cat $97K at Saratoga at 6f on fast dirt.

Paceless, 5 horse field that included Mr. Crow in his last off effort. Trainer Lynch is a 23% Grade Stakes winner and a 7% winner only at Belmont over current meet.  He is a 33% winner at Belmont coupled with J. Ortiz, up. Eh.

Still Krz comes in off a $32,000 claimer.  He's been claimed three times in past year.  6 YO gelding has 6 wins in 20 starts at the distance and 11 Win-Place efforts in 19 Fast Dirt Starts.  Ontario bred. Big Timeform early pace fig of 129.  Will/can he carry?

Mr. Crow finished 13 1/2 lengths up the track back of the winner in last years edition of this race.  Since that effort, he was claimed for $62K and has one win in last five efforts.  His running lines:  "...last match..."  Adds 4 pounds from Tale of the Cat.  Last two races J. Ortiz was up but he jumps to Silver Ride, and Saez, who's piloted Silver Ride's last two races is up on Mr. Crow for Conditioner Ben Colebrook.

Forge and Manical should be rolling early and I suspect Imperial Hint will set up off their flanks pressing their pace.  Forge is 0 of 3 starts at Belmont but 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and 7 of 11 in the money on fast dirt.  Manical goes for Wesley Ward with J. Velazquez up.  6 of 8 in the money in 2018 for a Kitten's Joy who has started 7 of 16 times on grass.

For my purposes, I'd tossing Sightforsoreeyes at my own peril.

So what to do with this?  My mind hasn't really changed.  This is the sort of race I'll be paying attention to the Will Pay ticker as the post parade nears the gate.  I'll be looking for the value bets with Imperial Hint in the Win spot as well as the Place Spot.  I'm not interested in investing $2 dollars to make $3.  I am willing to invest $10 for a chance to make $50.  Is he unbeatable?  No.

Have fun with it friends,  Turk Out!

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Anatomy of a Bet: The $100,000 Laurel Turf Cup Exacta

Hello Don Julio: Photo Gulfstream Park Twitter Feed
Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

Simple.  I don't say that to boast, I say that to point out opportunities exist to make money in this game.  In this morning's blog post, I repeatedly stated that the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup was a wide open race.  The morning line and presumptive post time chalk, Hello Don Julio looked vulnerable, but from whom?  An eleven horse field of vanilla.  For the first time perhaps ever in the long history of The Turk, I suggested an exacta bet with The Turk's top two favorites over the field.  For a $20 bet, it looked like the downside case was Hello Don Julio won and Final Copy at $3.70 odds, Renown at $5.20 or Vintage Matters at $7.20 Placed, returning me about the value of the bet.  The upside was if some of the longer prices came in Place, and $115 to $1 Cooptado (Arg) did just that returning the Turk $130 or $110 net.  Cooptado (Arg) on paper looked rough, the 8 YO hadn't hit the board in 5 races in 2018, and unraced since June.  Working at Laurel over the main track, Trainer Thomas Morley did a nice job putting him in a good spot.  His late Timeform Pace fig is 102 but that late turn of foot has not been evident in any of this year's races.

Why'd I pick the field to Place?  Again, it was wide open on paper.  My Turk Fair Line illustrates this.  Am I retiring on this win?  No, but again, The Turk says it all the time, I'm a low risk, medium reward handicapper/Investor and I just keep carving out this type of wins that are offset partially by the losses, but overall positive ROI.

Churning out a positive return on investment has become the game to me.

Have fun with whatever your game is.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The $100K Laurel Park Turf Cup

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

Wide Open!  That is what I would say to describe today's handicapping challenge, the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup, which thanks to the track announcer, confirmed to me that the race is indeed on the turf today.  Twitter is a powerful tool for a handicapper who is trying to collect information.  I understand budgets are tight at the tracks, but a good social media poster who can respond to tweets is incredibly helpful.  Through 4 races while I write this the Turf is listed as good. 

Wide Open!  Let's get after it.

Renown (GB) enters off a show finish (Place through DQ) in the $100K John's Call Stakes at SAR in mid August.

Bottled up along the rail after breaking from 5 hole, Renown (GB) darted through a hole late showing as his  running line said "...good courage". 11 of 20 In the Money over grass with 8 wins, a 50% winner at this distance in 12 starts, distance (1/8 cut), class (same), and weight (-1) all pretty consistent with last time out for conditioner Elizabeth Voss who is 49% in the money and a 19% winner in 2018 over 37 starts in these conditions.

Hello Don Julio  enters off 1 3/8 $80K OC at SAR where he finished Place by a neck after leading most of the way.   9 of 16 in the money over grass, no wins in only one try at the distance for the 6 YO gelded son of Afleet Alex. Class, Distance and Weight (+2) all step ups.

Postulation is down over past two races but is going with Michael Matz today for first time (29% in 7 tries with first timers). Training sharply, the 6 Yo gelded son of Harlan's Holiday is going at same distance, with similar class and weight (+1), 8 Win-Places in 19 career starts. 

Tizzarunner has 2 wins in 3 Laurel Park starts and breaks from far outside post today.  Winless in 2018, class dropped from Grade 2 to 3 to $97K and now $100K stakes.  Last time out at Ellis Park  he finished well beaten in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Preview

Final Copy and Vintage Matters break 1 and 2 on the inside respectively.  Final Copy has no wins in 5 tries at the distance, drops in Class from Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woodbine at similar distance but picking up 3 pounds.  Over good turf he ran evenly throughout. Ontario bred Malibu Moon 4 YO trained by Roger Attfield. 

Vintage Matters hasn't won in 2 years and 2 months, only has 1 win in 11 turf tries and is 1 of 11 lifetime as well and is 6-1 Morning line incredibly.  Wide Open!

Not In Charge has nice late turn of foot and comes in with a 1 1/2 mile win overfirm turf on this course. Scuba , a 7 YO gelded son of Tapit, makes his 5th career turf start and is looking for win 2. 

I'm thinking that any of the field can PLACE but only a few logical winners, led by Renown and Hello Don Julio.  I'll be building exacta tickets after looking at the Will Pay's just before they head into the gate.

Have fun friends.

Turk Out!