Friday, March 1, 2024

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap G1

 

Newgrange: Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 17th year of writing handicaps and assembling bets.    While I primary write about Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting, I still keep my dirt chops up to speed.  Thanks to the good people at The Thorofan who asked me to write for this week's Handicappers Corner, I'm writing about the Santa Anita Handicap this week.  

If you haven't seen, the race has been moved to Sunday due to rain concerns Saturday.  I'm handicapping as if it's a fast track and will adjust accordingly.  You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.  

I'm not a turf writer nor do I pretend to be one.  I'm just a guy with a red pen and an opinion on what's on the paper and what I see in the videos.  I have no special insights into the industry or the horse racing elites.  To me, that makes things simpler.  I jump into handicapping when the mood strikes me and I take a hiatus when I'm turned off.  I saw a few horse racing fatalities in person last year, grizzly ones, and I needed a break over the winter.  I'm glad to see Santa Anita moving the card around to try and avoid running such a prestigious race in bad conditions and the second guessing that would follow any breakdown. 

Let's Get After It!

Santa Anita Handicap aka The Big Cap:  1 1/4 Miles on Dirt

  


17 November 2023 CD; ALW $125,000 N1X 1 1/16 Fast Dirt 

Highland Falls (2 back) win as chalk.



13 January 2024 SA; 1 1/16 Fast Dirt San Pasqual G2Newgrange/Newgate/Mixto



4 November 2023 SA; 1 5/8 Fast Dirt Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance G2; Salesman (Ire) 




I can't say I love this as a betting opportunity;  Watch the San Pasqual and tell me if you see any kinks in Newgrange armor? Does he have an extra 1/8 of a mile is the only real question.  Last year's 7th with Dettori up had to have been a disappointment and D'Amato immediately cut him back to what looks like a comfort zone at least one panel or two less.  I put him as chalk but we won't be betting him there.  

Highland Falls ships in from Brad Cox, and the Godolphin runner has done little wrong last two out albeit in sheltered company.  He has a class jump to make from Alw/OC races but the Curlin in him bodes well.  

I only see Newgate and Salesman (Ire)  as the only other possible winners.  

Salesman has been training very sharply at SA for Mandella but this is first back since Breeders' Cup Saturday.  26 career starts for the 7 YO, 24 of which on Turf or Fake Dirt.  His widening win over a small field his last time out at an extra 1/8 of a mile was only impressive in how he was running with little pressure towards the wire.  Mandella has won this three times so don't discount him.

Baffert has two in the race with Reincarnate and Newgate.  I'm not sure what instructions he'll give Deltorri, but perhaps he should try something different and use alot of that early speed and see if it carries, but like Newgrange, I question his ability over this distance, going in a sprint just two back in early January.  

I don't think much of ReincarnateMixto has 1 win in 9 dirt starts.  Sadler's Subsanador (Arg) is a wild card and a value add to exacta.  

So what to do with all this?  I'm going to make a low risk exacta bet of Highland Farms OVER Salesman/Subsanador and Newgrange, a $2 bet for $6.  

I'm the sort of horse player that doesn't need action bets and believes that the best way to improve ROI is to know which races to avoid.  I'm not thrilled with this race and given my druthers, I'd walk away but if forced to bet a $2 Win on Salesman and Subsanador for $4 doesn't bother me.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 





Sunday, October 29, 2023

Post Race Analysis: The Mother Goose. "It's Just Numbers and Patterns"

 It's just numbers and pattern recognition.  While there are always outliers, if you approach your handicapping from the same place mentally, with the same application of thoughts applied to the runners, if you avoid the greatest traps of all, "the biases", you'll likely predict winners regularly and be successful with your handicap to at least have a fighting chance at assembling a proper bet.  

Two different sides of the coin, handicapping and bet construction.  I am a top shelf handicapper, especially with my approach to only handicapping in low volumes, but I'm just an OK bettor, much better as a bettor (say that three times) when I don't concern myself with losing.  That's a hard thing when you write about the races and your perceived credibility is measured strictly by wins and losses.  It took me a long time to realize that the only person who will ever truly know at how good I am at the horse game is me, and once I realized that, I stopped picking chalk to win in these written blog posts and started picking the best risk/reward combinations.  I always did that when I was just sitting in the stands and banging out bets, but it's more difficult than you might imagine when you write out the handicap and you are sticking your ass and credibility out there.  Anyways, I've been doing this a very long time and my closest readers know my handicappers eye, that's all I really care about.  


Bias.  Avoid the biases

  •     Authority Bias:  Morning Line or TV Personality picks.  
  •    Bandwagon Effect:  Putting aside my fan instincts.
  •    Confirmation Bias:  Keep an open mind and don't prejudge the outcomes prematurely. 
  •    Recency:  Important, but not everything.  Where are these athlete's in their cycle?


You'll find the Race Replay here at NYRA Website, I wasn't able to find a shareable Youtube video yet.  

As I said prerace, Xigera was heavy chalk and I predicted 5 out of 10 times he would win this race.  The real key is always identifying horses that can run better than their odds and horses that don't deserve their short odds. I already identified that Xigera deserved short odds, but look at Defining Purpose, fourth down the tote board at $7.2-$1 odds.   I thought she could match Xigera early (she did) I thought she could be better late (she couldn't).  Still, a simple $1 Exacta Box of these two returned $8.20 on a $2 investment.  That's how you make money better favorites in the Exacta.  

If you boxed my top four in the Superfecta a $1 bet for $24 returned $63.50.  It ultimately comes down to the handicapper's secret weapon, the Fair Odds table. I didn't win these bets, I would have never placed these bets, but the handicap and the analysis pointed to these selections and this race is a classic "don't overthink it" example.  Undervalued Asset was early speed and hadn't been past 6.5f.  Foggy Night was slow overall but had early speed.  Julia Shining has the flashy pedigree but doesn't know what she is, nor does Peak Popularity.  You see these sorts of patterns every week.  A handicapper must learn to understand why a horse is entered into the particular race and what the plan is for that horse by the connections.  

Xigera, if she comes back as a 4 YO, will be fun to watch.  Everyone else, what is the plan?

 It's all numbers friends, Turk Out!

Friday, October 27, 2023

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Mother Goose at Aqueduct (It's not Belmont!)

 

Xigera:  Photo credit Coady Photography (thank you)
 Welcome friends to The Turk Blog.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  

I've been on a Handicappers Holiday since late August.  Just like the horses need to go the the farm and freshen up, I find that my handicapping is better when I take some time away.  I've already started Breeders' Cup video preparation so this weekend is a good time for me to start looking at past performances again, and The Mother Goose at Belmont at the Big A is a good handicapping challenge for me.  Why?  These runners, most of who are Breeders' Cup eligible, most likely didn't peak well enough to earn a place on World Championship weekend.  It doesn't mean they are bad horses, it's just that their current condition wasn't where it needed to be in some of the key races in August, September and early October.  I count five graded stakes win amongst the seven horses, a G1, a G2 and three G3.  There is a lot to prove from the classiest of runners here, yes I'm looking at the $435,000 purchase of Peak Popularity, the $625,000 Occult, the $225,000 Julia Shining and the $190,000 Xigera.  I also think it's ok at this time of the year to start and  second guess the tactics of horses having underwhelming seasons who are in the barns of the mega trainers.  Two Browns and a Pletcher here that fit that description,  and I think it's fair game to question the choices made in their three year old campaigns.  I'm of the mind that owners should not be so differential to the Big Barns and get some more personalized attention with smaller outfits, but I'm just a handicapper and a fan of this game for the better part of 40 years, what do I know.  

Anyways, my other rule as a handicapper is to not worry about what runners aren't here, or what the field's overall quality is, just handicap what's on the paper and what you see in the video.  Let's get after it!

The weather should be beautiful and I'd expect the track to be fast, but check here for scratches, changes and track condition.   

Let's start with video of  the runner's last starts.  

The Cotillin G1:  1 1/16 miles over slop at PARX;  23 September 2023; Foggy Night/1, Occult/5, Defining Purpose/7 

Seneca Overnight Race 9 23 September 2023:  1 1/16 on Fast Dirt

Allowance $115K N1X; SAR 1 1/4 miles off turf sloppy dirt:  Peak Popularity/2

The Alabama G1;  SAR 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt; Julia Shining/3  Defining Purpose/7

The Gallant Bloom G2:  BEL Big A; 1 October 2023 6.5F Fast Dirt; Undervalued Asset/4



I don't think this was an overly difficult field to handicap on paper, but the video was an exercise in trying to see potential that hasn't translated into performance. 

Xigera is the most impressive to me.  In a recent interview with the NYRA press, trainer Bauer said "...we made sure the work two out (from the Breeders' Cup) was a good one and we were still trying to decide if we were going to fly out to California.  We talked in circles about it and decided that maybe the best thing at the moment would be to get her a graded black type win, if we can."  That seems like a logical and reasonable approach and she comes in with by far the most impressive last race out.  Exceptional early speed, this versatile Turf and Dirt runner comes to NY after training up exceptionally well.  Heavy chalk. 

Defining Purpose cannot be overlooked.  A good place at 14-1 odds in The Alabama before a flat Cotillion in the slop at Parx last time out and a Grade 1 winner at 20-1 at KEE and a Grade 3 winner in the Indiana Oaks.    McPeek/Alvarado are not a very successful pairing.  Will keep pace early and possibly be better late. 

Occult is a bit of a wild card.  Very classy, Brown/I. Ortiz combo sizzles, but just hasn't found her defining moment as of yet.  Destroyed a pretty weak Monmouth Oaks field for a Grade 3 win at $1.40-1 odds.  Rallied, but didn't seem to ever really stretch in the slop of the Cotillion.  Went off at 27-1 in the Acorn at Belmont and finished a so-so Place to Pretty Mischievous.  What do I know, but maybe a different barn than Brown's would be a better place for her.  Dangerous, but hard to depend on the danger.  

I have similar thoughts on Julia Shining: I am no pedigree expert but the daughter of Curlin and Dreaming of Julia  is having what can only be described as a disastrous 3 YO campaign after winning a Grade 2 at Aqueduct in the slop last December.  Two Place finishes, a freshening up and a terrible 57 lengths back beat down at $5.30-1 odds in the Alabama.  The works have been steady since mid September and Castellano gets the mount from Saez.  Dart throw as to which filly shows up.

Undervalued Asset is another Brown runner and makes the sprint to route jump, stretching out from the 6.5 f of her last race.  I'm not sure why she hasn't run past 8f yet, but what do I know, especially with 1 win in 6 tries this year and 3 Place finishes where she was moving forward at the wire.  

So what do I do with all this?  I like Xigera a lot and toyed with making her shorter than 7-5 (42%)  in my fair odds chart.  I also have no interest in betting her if her odds shorten from her Morning Line of 6-5.  I'm thinking something along the lines of $2 Exacta 7-5-3-4 OVER 6 for $8.  I like the risk/reward of putting the heavy chalk in the Place spot but I think if this race is run ten times she wins maybe 5 times and the Bauer team gets rewarded for their patient approach.  

Have fun friends!  Turk Out

Saturday, August 26, 2023

The Nomination Is In: The G1(T) Sword Dancer and the G1 Travers Stakes

Three Generations of Turk: 2007
 Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction.  I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type.  We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases.  I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different.  It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks.  Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless.  I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.

If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon.  While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup.  The circle of life in a horse players year.

I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us.  I think about my Dad every time I'm there.  My last visit with my father was  Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago.  What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.  

Anyways, let's get after this!  The Dirt Track is listed as Muddy Currently and the Inner Turf as Good.  Stay tuned here for Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions.  So far no scratches in 11 or 12.  

First up, the 7 horse Sword Dancer.  

The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023

Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green.  I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).

Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from? 

Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR.  The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and  a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's.  6 of 7 ITM  in 2023.  4 Wins in 6 turf starts.  


Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question.  Feels more like step one of a  Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien.  25 months since last win.  

The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February.  Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%.  Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff.  His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers.  I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.  



Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire).  He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time.  I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.  

I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and  Stone Age for $12.  

And in The Travers

The Jim Dandy G2; 1 1/8 miles over sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.  


The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023


The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023


The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023


Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP.  11 June 2023


The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.




Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.  

I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling.  I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon.  There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland.  I'm tossing both from my exacta pool.  My value choice is Disarm.  Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.  

$1 Exacta:  6-2-5-1 for $12.  Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out.  


I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.  

2007 Travers Stakes

Saturday, August 19, 2023

The Nomination Is In: The King Edward G2 at Woodbine

  Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet construction.  Today's focus is on Woodbine's The King Edward Grade 2.  How does the Turk pick which races he plans to handicap? I think one of my strengths as a handicapper is my experience handicapping all tracks, ages, surfaces, sexes, distances  and class over decades, but also my refinement of my turf racing eye. You'll find me handicapping most weekends 8-10 furlong races with fields of at least 8.  That's what makes the blogging interesting.  I generally use the Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar to help me understand what's in the Conditions Book for the particular weekend and then I use the tracks website to look at entries before I shell out money for a DRF Formulator Past Performance card.  I've used many PP's over the years but I enjoy Formulator and I believe in following a consistent approach to every handicap.  I've gone horizontal more this summer than I have in some time.  I like to anchor P4's to solid graded stakes on the turf.


So, that's it, no great mystery to the why's or the where's I handicap.  I do have favorite tracks, and Kentucky Downs has really become a favorite track of mine over past several years. I just find it compelling, and for a grass junkie, it checks all the boxes.


Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar

Let's get after it! 


I'm on a bit of a time crunch today so I'm just going to jump right to it:  I see Treason, War Bomber and Shirl's Speight as the class of the field with primarily the best late turns of foot and class.  

While I don't think he's the best, this is gambling:  I'm going to wheel War Bomber OVER Treason, Shirl's Speight, Pao Alto and Lucky Score, a $2 Exacta for $8.  Nothing complicated.   I liked War Bomber leaving The Connaught Cup at 7f a month ago, and with a better trip and more grass I like him even better.  

The Connaught Cup G2: 23 July 2023 Race 8 WO.  My handicap link is here:

  

Treason cuts back 1 panel from his Place effort in early July on Canada Day in the Dominion Day G3.  Watch War Bomber get dusted, now two efforts back from today.  


 


 Have fun friends, Turk Out.

Saturday, August 12, 2023

The Nomination Is In: Colonial Downs Turf Festival featuring the "Arlington" Million

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons.  My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting.  

The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep.  I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the night of the fire on 31 July 1985.  I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies.  Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival.  It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million.  I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies.   I don't blame the Bears, but CDI is not innocent:  They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan. 

I don't believe in organized boycotts, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt?  Blue collar employees, while the boss man sips champagne. I considered never playing a race called "Arlington Million", but who does that hurt? No one but me.  I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems.  They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure.  It's symbiotic:  How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now.  According to Jockey Club, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001.  That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes.  How many Secretariat's or Zenyatta's were not born over the past 22 years?  Don't think about it.

That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected.  As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis,  you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data.  Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until Breeders' Cup final prep time.  

I'd be remiss to not talk about Maple Leaf Mel today.  I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that Maple Leaf Mel would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated Maple Leaf Mel made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in The Test, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells.  The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares.  I'm glad Maple Leaf Mel was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses.  Rest in Peace Maple Leaf Mel

Ok, lets get after this!

You'll find Scratches and Changes here as well as Turf Condition which I think will be Firm.  


 It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race.  Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race.  Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here. 

Catnip and Adhamo (Ire) have my top spots.  

Catnip is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023.  Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time.  It's  a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO,  but I'm intrigued and the price should be right.  

Catnip as a beaten Favorite on Haskell Day, the  1 3/8ths United Nations G1


Adhamo (IRE) goes for the first time since October 2022.  Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga.  

Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get.  My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them.  This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.

Set Piece (GB) has to me the best late speed of the field.  Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on Stephen Foster Day.  At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred.  Have to respect. 



Master Piece (Chi), now 7 YO, trained  by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf  1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July.  1 win in last 8 starts.  10 of 22 in exactas over grass.  Solid late speed.  Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today. 


Chad Brown's Rockemperor comes in off of a dog of a classic distance Manhattan on Belmont Day.   In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see Strong Quality lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end.  Both Strong Quality and Rockemperor aren't in the frame when Up to the Mark blew the doors off this one.  I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material.  

 

Never Explain, the $475,000 KEE sale son of Street Sense is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S.   7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf Bowling Green at SAR on 30 July.  The ageless Channel Maker had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off.  


What am I doing with this?  A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20.  I'm including my top six with exception of Rockemperor, at my own peril.  I'm tempted to Catnip in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return.  That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Thursday, August 3, 2023

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga

Charge It: Adam Coglianese Photo (Thanks)
 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on this race with you today.  The Turk is in the Spa! Yes, for the first time since before COVID, I'm returning to Saratoga.   I lived in Saratoga in 1986 while I was training to operate Nuclear Reactors for the US Navy.  It was the 1986 meet where this casual horse racing fan from my childhood  became a closet race fan before embracing my red ink pen and nerdy handicapper persona after leaving the Navy.  Ironically I was stationed onboard the USS Louisville, SSN-24, Best of the Breed.  Louisville, with myself onboard, fired some of the first missiles on the opening night of Operation Desert Storm.  I digress, but it is funny the coincidences of life.  

The 1986 Whitney was won by Lady's Secret, the first filly since the 40's to win.  Some of my favorite horses since I became a full fledged fan of the game in the late 80's have won this race: Commentator in 2005 and 2008, Lawyer Ron in 2007, Tizway in 201, but 2010's Blame has me thinking about the Breeders' Cup Classic and an unbeatable Zenyatta, America's favorite, beloved.  Cody's Wish is on a Zenyatta like roll right now with the American public, I can't help but think could he be meeting his Blame today?  I was there watching in disbelief that Zenyatta, bad start and all, did not catch Blame that cold night in Churchill Downs.  Does this happen to me again?  Life is funny with the parallels and coincidences.  

I know as a gambler, that will be my intention, to bet against him.  I hope he proves me wrong, but this is a horse race investment and I'm thinking about high risk-high reward.  Let's get it on!

I'm expecting Fast Dirt.  The Weather is inclement for a few hours Friday but Saturday looks good.  It's a small field, six horses, so watch for scratches and changes here.  

Just a few relevant videos with The Met Mile the most relevant.  

8 July 2023: BEL; Suburban G2; 1 1/4 Mile Fast Dirt

10 June 2023: BEL; Met Mile G1; 1 Mile Fast Dirt

8 July 2023; PrM; Cornhusker Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

1 July 2023; EIP; Stephen Foster G1; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt


Whitney G1; 1 1/8 Miles


Let's take a closer look at my handicapping analysis.



There are 4 wins in 25 lifetime starts at this distance!

It's been a very long time since I had a horse in my fair line at 50% odds to win.  Cody's Wish morning line is something like 1-2 and I have to think this horse will be the post time favorite.  Even at 66% win odds, there is still a 33% chance he loses.  As a gambler, with this type of underlay, and I think it's fair to call any horse at 1-2 an underlay going a distance they have never won at, and I want to take a swing at beating him.  

How I assemble my exacta?  Sitting here in Western New York on Thursday Night I'm contemplating wheeling Charge It OVER White Abarrio, Zandon and Cody's Wish, a $2 bet for $6.  For real value, I think I should go Charge It OVER the field, a $2 Bet for $10 and hope beyond hope that Giant Game or Last Samurai Place.  I'm not emotional about Charge It and quote frankly, I could swap Charge It for White Abarrio who I think is improving.   This is gambling, not an exercise in picking the best horses.  Always remember that and always try to exploit these feel good moments when betting dollars surge towards a fan favorite.  Yes, 7 out of 10 races, Cody's Wish walks away with this, but I just need Saturday to be one of the 3 of 10.  

Have fun friends.  Turk will be in the Clubhouse Section K with a bunch of rowdy degenerate gamblers, I hope to see some of you there.

Turk Out!