The Nomination Is In: The John C. Mabee Grade 2 at Del Mar and a Special Request for helping colt Timothy James

The Turk, fresh off a handicapper's holiday, just can't get into the 2 YO's that much, and the youngsters are the focus of the weekend at most tracks today.  When I looked at the stakes schedule I was drawn quickly to this race, but after looking at the PP's, I'm not so sure.  Today's John C. Mabee could be a wonderful race with two of the best distaff turf runners in the game today, Tiz Flirtatious and Lady of Shamrock, but it needs at least three more post positions filled out to be a fun betting race. 

A five horse Graded Stake.  In my mind that should make the race lose graded stakes status for this year as well as next.  If the tracks can't fill the races, they shouldn't get the stakes.  Yeah I know, the Turk is most likely smokin' something, but as a race ran, a 5 horse turf race just isn't that enjoyable and there should be a penalty for not filling the gates, like, I don't know, eliminating the stupid races mid week, reducing the race calendar, but what do I know. 





I'm not sure I'll invest in this one or not;  I do think Lady of Shamrock will turn the tables on Tiz Flirtatious, but that's not exactly going to make a stack of bills appear. Trifecta is on the menu if you feel so inclined. 

More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery.  Animal people understand this. From Facebook today

"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"

Thank you from the Turk in advance

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 14 July 2012: The A Gleam and American Oaks at Hollywood Park

Beautiful Switch, after such a tough 2011 campaign, bounces back strong in last weekend's American Oaks, securing a starting position in the 2012 Breeders'Cup.

The American Oaks was the sort of handicap that reminds me that I'm pretty good at what I do. That's not cockiness, and its not arrogance, it's confidence. I'm placing my hard earned investment capital on the line and I need to know that I am not going to turn a big pile of money into a much smaller pile.

Handicapping isn't my problem, it's the easier part of the two part equation. Bet construction is always the most critical piece of the puzzle. I'm a Superfecta and Pick 4 fella and there's a fine line between overcovering and undercovering, spending too much or too little. I find that while tedious, I must keep good betting records and constantly analyze if my ROI meets or exceeds my investment hurdle.

Just using these two races as an example, the two superfectas cost me $480; That's more than I'm usually comfortable investing but I felt confident that I would hit one or both. Again, arrogance? No, my readers will see a continual involvement of myself at Hollywood this meet. I watched video every race day and I studied the race charts of every stakes and high level allowance race. At the end of each meet is when I do my best, a nugget only gleaned by self analysis.

The rare occasion for me comes along when Handicap and Bet Construction are both perfect. This wasn't one of those weeks, as I rushed the bet construction because of time constraints.

It's always better to realize you made a mistake while not costing yourself too much money. I made about $1,000 last weekend, so why am I so gloomy? At an investment of $480 if I don't win every three races I'm losing money, and again, with an investment hurdle of 20% ROI, I need to win more than 2 out of 3. I'm not that good!

I screwed up but it didn't cost me badly, but its the type of bad habit that can be the difference between a good disciplined bettor with a positive ROI, and a unsuccessful bettor.



The A Gleam Handicap Grade 2



The American Oaks Grade 1



You don't have to become a CPA to have good betting history, and in fact most online betting options have exportable histories to EXCEL. I keep a running spreadsheet and I make a point of reviewing my investment results every week. betting on horses is alot of fun, but winning those bets is even more fun!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: Hollywood Race Track on Saturday: A Gleam and American Oaks

The all business, Lady of Shamrock, with Mike Smith up, daughter of Scat Daddy, looks to take the next step in filly turf racing in this weekend's American Oaks at Hollywood Park. Thanks to Benoit for the wonderful action picture.

California racing shifts to Del Mar on Wednesday but the Turk will be saying goodbye to California racing until the fall meet at Santa Anita. I'm a hypocrite, I know, but I do well on some fake dirt courses, and Hollywood seems to be one of them, and I don't do well at others, and Del Mar seems to resemble that remark. The Turk's been spending quite a bit of time in Southern California lately and I hope to make a trip to Del Mar in the next few weeks to try and improve on my putrid feel for the racing there.

Is Saratoga really upon us? I preferred opening day on a Wednesday, and I'd rather see a shorter meet with fewer races than a watered down product, but the NYRA doesn't ask my opinion. The Turk will be there opening day as well as several other times throughout the meet, including Alabama and Woodward Day. Why don't I have the same aversion to playing Saratoga as I do Del Mar? I'm not that good at Saratoga either, but hey, I'm an established hypocrite, see my previous paragraph.

What The Turk is, besides being a hypocrite, is a disciplined bettor. I'll handicap a track for days without placing a bet- I like to get a feel for how things are playing on both surfaces and at different distances before I wager hard earned investment capital. At Hollywood, Santa Anita, Woodbine, Arlington and Churchill Downs that approach seems to work and I get locked into a serious winning riff. That approach doesn't cut it at Del Mar and at Saratoga the jury is out on my lifetime ROI, but if I had the nerve to look, I'd say not so good.

All that said, I'll be handicapping lots of races at Saratoga and some at Del Mar, never let it be said I didn't warn you to take these picks with much skepticism.

Let's get after this!

BHP Race 8 and 9: Saturday July 14



I have loved the quality of runners at Hollywood all meet. There are no world beaters, but some really competitive horses and some quality fields. I think these races are no exception.

In the A Gleam, I'm dropping a Thoroughbred Legends Stable runner, Glamorista in as the chalk: 4 of 5 lifetime in the money for this lightly raced mare, a step up in class, but I like the odds this horse will go off at and I'll cover her in all spots in my Super. Sutherland up for Baffert, the Hollywood Gold Cup team.

Another long shot fills my Place spot, Sugarinthemorning. This Candy Ride daughter has Placed three times in last four startsand Trainer McAnally has had her on the bench since late May. A bit high here but I'll also be covering in all spots in my Super.

Switch is a Turk favorite and I'm expecting a change to Gomez might be a good shake-up move for trainer Sadler. I doubt I'm the only one who gets a chill seeing Calumet Farms listed as the breeder, I wish we still had the devil red silks to watch as well but greed screwed that up I reckon. A sharp 6f 1:12 and 1/5 work signals good form. I'm thinking she breaks out here, so I can't let my Super get too pricey.

The next four are all exceptionaly even so this has the potential to be a nice pot for whoever can decode it, even if Switch goes off as a heavy favorite and wins.

In the American Oaks, I like Lady of Shamrock; 5 of 7 in the money on turf but no HOL turf wins and no attempts at this distance. A late turn of foot, I dont think the distance will be the issue.

Colonial Flag and Miss Cato (GB) are two I like alot. Mike Matz ships in Colonial Flag off a close Place in the Regret last month. Maragh ships in as well to take over for Leparoux. I had her on top that Stephen Foster day race.

Miss Cato (GB) gets lasix for the first time and races in North America for the first time as well. 7 of 7 in the money. Not sure if she'll like the turf, I guess we'll find out.

My Gi Gi was demolished in the Breeders' Cup, placed there for who knows what reason, but seems to be building on her turf base and she comes in off a G2 win by a nose and G3 loss by a nose. She's game, no doubt.

There's some nice racing this weekend at Arlington Park and I'll focus my efforts at Hollywood and Arlington this weekend. At Hollywood I'll bet just these two races, focused on exotics, Tri's or Supers. I'll follow my base handicap that i have here and keep both wagers reasonable.

Turk Out!