The Nomination Is In: December 26, 2010 Santa Anita Pick 3

Merry Christmas to my friends, family and readers of the Turk and the Little Turk.

To me, the day after Christmas and the opening of the Santa Anita winter meet always signals the start of the new season. I hope everyone had a relaxing few days. I've enjoyed a handicappers holiday, decompressing and getting ready to hit the ground running hard with Derby fever that will set in soon.

We've had an addition to the crack staff of handicappers at the Turk, so please, meet the newest Turk to the team, we'll call him HandHeld Turk. He's a derivative of a model developed by Mattel. I'm just now doing some research on Handheld Turk but I have found some interesting threads on the internet and I have anecdotally from my Aunt, whose father, a genuine old school horseplayer, swore by this machine. I'd like to think he's looking down from heaven and glad that its found its way into the Turk clan. When I get a bit more comfortable with inputting information into Handheld Turk I'll give him a forum for making his selections. Yes, Handheld Turk is greater than 21 years old and is eligible for the fringe benefits offered here at Turk Central, namely unlimited bourbon and cigars. OK, let's get after it!

Santa Anita Race 6-7-8 Pick Three; Post Time 5:30 ET


There's been much written about the switch back to dirt at Santa Anita. I had begun to accept that the fake stuff was here to stay and I'm still a bit shocked at how suddenly the surface was replaced, especially after two successful Breeders' Cup events. I reckon the lost days when it rained is what ultimately did it in, but the switch back to dirt was welcomed by me and it sure does make the winter meet seem relevant again as a place to prep for the Triple Crown races. Today though, we are faced with a new surface and days of bad weather that have taken a toll. It makes sense as a handicapper to watch the races, study the race charts, but limit the amount you are willing to invest with unknown and unpredictable variables at work.

I've built a Pick Three bet around two Grade I sprints and a Grade II turf route. I'm hopeful that the surface will be race worthy, but we'll see. There are some really nice horses lined up for Boxing Day racing and that is ultimately what I always care about the most.

I'll let the handicap speak for itself right now. I'm going with a chalky group of runners in the $24 variety of my prospective bets. I will watch for scratches and changes right up to post time of Race 6 and then roll the dice. I'll be watching the races on my new set-up: My Mac Mini is now connected to the TV via an HDMI cable and I'm streaming HRTV. I'm pretty excited that horse racing friends are coming over today and we'll be able to enjoy the races and good food, courtesy of Mrs. Turk, in comfort.

Enjoy friends, have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: December 26, 2009; The Sir Beaufort Stakes Grade III; 1 Mile on Turf at Santa Anita

Pictured left is Kip Deville, the 2006 winner of the Grade III Sir Beaufort Stakes at Santa Anita Park. We continue to pray that Kip survives a battle against failing health. This is opening day at Santa Anita, an exciting day with the unveiling of a John Henry statue and a parade by 2009 Horse of the Year Zenyatta. Good stuff!

Let's go!

Race 7 Santa Anita, post time 5:30 ET; The Sir Beaufort Stakes Grade III; 1 Mile on Turf for 3 YOs.



It's a rather unaccomplished group after The Usual Q.T. and Massone. The Usual Q.T. has a nice resume; 5 straight Wins, 5 straight improving Beyers, a last race best 100 BSF, 2 of 2 at SA, 6 of 6 in the money on Turf, 3 Turf Miles and 3 Wins, 9 of 10 lifetime in the money, a Grade I winner and the race career earnings leader. Not bad for a $12,500 Unusual Heat gelding! Will go off at less then even money so let's take a stand that he will win and then insert into the bet runners 2-4 in a mixture of straight picks and boxes, something I call a matrix, and see if we can't hit a superfecta.

For Place I like Massone. I'll shade him up to win on a few tickets, but for the most part I like him right here. No races at this distance. 5 straight races with 90+ BSF including an even 100 BSF at LaD in the Super Derby, a no match Show finish. Gomez up for Trainer McAnally, who by the way, does not have super trainer stats. A late goer, with less distance will have to go sooner but has the skill too.

The crap shoot begins for the Show Spot and 4th. It's not a bad thing as some longer odds here could increase the payout to make these bets worth it from risk/reward perspective. A group of horses of similar quality make up the pool I'm backing. Pleasure Ride, son of Candy Ride (Arg), is 9 of 14 in the money in 2009, 7 of 7 in the money on Turf and 4 of 4 in the money at distrance, as well as 2 of 2 in the money at SA. The Hollendorfer/Solis combination has been competitive and the horse has run off 7 straight game efforts. Watch the tote, worth at least one $2 buck win bet if >8-1 and a few tickets will slip him into Place. Little separates Pleasure Ride from Riviera Cocktail and Tamborim. That leaves me Gallant Son, Mr. Rod, Quoted and Brenthurst as the only horses right now I'm not accounting for with Quoted and Brenthurst my only confirmed tosses.

Don't make these decisions too soon. Watch the tote, the weather, the turf condition, and the changes and adjust your base handicap and bet strategy accordingly. Consistency, Consistency, Consistency. I hope Santa left this for you in your stocking because its the best tool for long term success.

Merry Christmas, Have Fun and Turk Out!