The Nomination Is In: December 18, 2010; The WL McKnight Handicap

The Turk has enjoyed a handicappers holiday since shutting down is red gel pen after the Clark Handicap nearly a month ago. I think it's important to put the Daily Race Form Past Performances down several times a year and clear your mind, but just like the horses I handicap, if my break is too long I can get dull.

That said, this is a tough time of the year to open the conditions book and find a race that sparks my creative juice. The snow is falling rapidly here near Buffalo, and not being able to see the grass has me thinking longingly for those idyllic days watching the turk course at Arlington and Saratoga. With that, I have the 1 1/2 mile W.L. McKnight Handicap at Calder Race Course to get me thinking about those days that will come again. I thank the talented Sarah K. Andrew for the picture that provides a bit of holiday cheer. Remember, horse pictures make a great Christmas gift, and please go and look at what Sarah has to offer. Lets get after it!

The track condition was firm yesterday but the weather forecast may soften it up just slightly by post time. Typical of a 1 1/2 mile turf race, you find an odd assortment of horses in the field, from proven distance competitors to horses who haven't really fit in anywhere else and the connections are seeing if they like the extra real estate. It's a niche race and its usually run by niche horses. Even the best in the niche don't dominate, so look for value instead of chalk.

Race 11 Calder Race Course Post Time 4:45 ET: The W.L. McKnight Handicap Grade 2; 1 1/2 miles on Turf



The big names are out for this race: Telling, Presious Passion, Prince Will I Am, and Musketier all represent good win opportunity, but I'm looking at Rescue Squad at the right price. After I handicapped (and never before!) I checked the morning line and Rescue Squad is installed at 6-1. Hmmm. A nice last race go around against Grassy in a grade II for the 4 YO son of Dynaformer. The colt has never won at the distance, never raced at Calder, but is training well, had a nice 4f handride in :47 3/5 ths and I'm hoping to find him more like 8-1.

I can't remember the last time I didn't approach my bet strategy from a multi race perspective, but I am today, and I'm taking for me the unusual step of building my handicap and bet strategy at the same time. With that in mind I'm slotting Telling followed by Price Will I Am as Place and Show. Telling, the Little Turk's chalk, is a consistent 6 YO who has won at this distance twice, is 9 of 18 in the money on turf, and strings together good performances. Unfortunately for Telling, since getting freshened after a Grade I win in August he has not been nearly as dangerous. Words like No Kick and Lacked Response aren't great to see, but he's quality horse flesh and I think he'll be somewhere from Place to fourth.

Prince Will I Am is a baby at 3 YO in a niche that is usually filled by older horses. 3 of 3 in the money on turf, he comes in off a wild DQ in the Breeders' Cup Marathon and a win in the Grade I Jamaica.

Presious Passion is always dangerous if left on the lead to long, but I'm expecting he will be reeled back in today.

I'm leaning towards a Superfecta fun built around a matrix of my base handicap. I'll keep the risk low and remember this is more about engaging my brain than anything else.

I'll be back this weekend for some last minute gift ideas for the gentleman horseplayer in your lives. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day November 14, 2009: The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap at Calder Race Course

The Turk is feeling empowered. Armed with HRTV now streaming through his computer, I was able to handicap, watch the early card races, watch the race I handicapped, count my winnings and confirmed the results at You Bet and then post my results while the horses were still walking back to the shedrow. For a guy who at best relates to Luddites, this is a big moment.

The picture is symbolic for me. There are sexy races, but those are the exception and not the rule on most cards at most tracks. The rest of the races I handicap I view as blue collar events that require a workmanlike approach. I pride myself on being a positive Return on Investment bettor and it's these types of races that make you positive. The picture to me is about concentration, dedication, and well, whiskey and cigars, but I digress.

Race 11 Calder Race Course: Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap $200,000; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt for 3 YO and Up FLA Registered Bred.



Little Turk and I were both feelin' It's a Bird. That said, he was 1 to 5 moments before the race posted and then did a magic jump to 3 to 5. While I liked the horse, I placed a $2 win bet on my second choice, Too Many Toyz and was rewarded with $12.20 when he won a gut check to the wire. It was a good handicap that I boxed safely, but what made the return gaudy good instead of OK good was the defensive $2 win bet on a underbet 2nd choice.

It's a Bird faded, again. That's three straight races going back to late May. It's time to shut it down for the season and hopefully we'll see him back next year.

Enjoy. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 14th, 2009; The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap at Calder Race Course

The Breeders' Cup is over for another 51 weeks or so. Long Live the Breeders' Cup! Just like many of my handicapping friends, it was total immersion for me for three weeks as I plotted, charted, built matrices, watched replays, blah blah blah. At the end of the day, I did just OK. I had a great Friday Night capped by a big exotic win powered by Life is Sweet and then I had a very mixed bag on Saturday. I'm slowly but surely still breaking down each of the 8 Breeders' Cup races I handicapped and I'll do a post mortem by the end of the weekend, but let's go for some hair of the dog and get right back to handicapping. While the names aren't as impressive, and you'd be lucky to find a Grade III winner yet alone multiple Grade I runners, today's card at Calder should be fun. I urge folks to stop by Plantation Cigars in Lake Worth on the way to the races. Tell Steve the Turk sent you. I digress, let's get it on!

I've got my eye on a few races on the card, but I'd be remiss not looking hard at the showpiece, the Classic. As always, start with framing the situation: Course, Surface, Weather. The weather should be very good. The track should be listed as FAST. Of course check for scratches and equipment changes. These should be a ritual: Weather, Course Condition, Scratches, and a near post time check of the Tote Board.

Race 11 Calder Race Course Post Time 4:43 Eastern; The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap $200,000; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs and Up registered FLA breds.



It's a Bird likes hard and fast dirt. The 6 YO Birdonawire son will have Leparoux up for trainer Wolfson. The trainer/jock combo are the class of the race with all due respect to Jock Saez. A big 2009 with three 107 BSFs before May and then a taper off. Freshened and raced only once since I saw him at the Woodward at Saratoga, I see no reason why this heavy duty chalk won't salsa dance into the winners circle for the tuna magnate, Owner Ed Gann.

Below It's a Bird is a hodge podge. So what do we do? 10 Cent Supers are in fashion, betting to win or even exacta and tri with an ultra heavy chalk is not always a wise investment from a risk/reward perspective. We are going to need the 3rd, 4th or 5th bettors favorite to Place to make this a value play. What I do know is you have to build a handicap and then decide if you wish to bet or not.

I have three horses in the next tier below It's a Bird. Too Many Toyz comes in off three straight wins at CRC in optional claimers for $16,000. His last race on a sloppy dirt surface earned him a 98 BSF, the best last race BSF entered. The 6 YO has won 33% of the the fast dirt races he's been entered in. I like him somewhere on the super ticket.

Teamo's Dream is 3 of 12 in 2009 and for this group a healthy 71,000 in earnings. 7 of 13 in the money at CRC and 2 of 12 on fast dirt. Won a 1 1/16 75K race in late September and faded in a Grade III last time out. Most likely bettors 2nd choice.

Dream Maestro has had a real falling off after starting 2009 with 7 straight 90+ BSFs. He's 3 of his last 22, 1 of 16 on fast dirt and 1 of 12 at CRC. UGH. We want him to get name recognition and bettors money but not much more.

Pound Foolish, the 3 YO Exchange Rate gelding, is 9 of 12 in the money on fast dirt and 9 of 13 at CRC. Coming back to dirt after a decent Grade III 1 1/8 turf effort. Trainer Tortora and Jock Saez winning at 31% clip and Trainer's stake race win percentage 25%, 6 wins in 24 tries.

Triple Crown followers will remember Imawildandcrazyguy but for little reason other then the name and a 4th place finish at the Kentucky Derby. Not much to say, he's capable of a solid upper 80's low 90's BSF but he's 2 of his last 21, 4 of 30 on fast dirt but 15 of 30 in the money.

Have fun with this low stress weekend card. Don't call 1-800-Hammer for any reason!

On a different note, the Turk was pleasantly surprised to open up his December issue of American Turf Monthly and find a very good article on the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance own Gina Rarick of Gallop France. She's a wonderful trainer who walks the walk and talks the talk in the fight against race day medications and the Turk was happy to see her recognized for the work she is doing. Entraîneur Rarick de félicitations.

Turk Out!