The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Presque Downs Masters

Presque Isle Downs

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan. an organization run by, and for, the average horse racing fan.  If you are looking for a way to make social connections at the racetrack, The Thorofan might just be for you so check it out.

Monday, September 8, is the 8th running of the Presque Isle Downs Masters, a Grade 2 race for fillies and mares, 3 years old and up.  This year's edition lacks the pizzazz and star power associated with any brace where the fabulous Groupie Doll appears, but its a solid 12 horse field nonetheless.  Groupie Doll set the track record last year, winning this race for two years consecutive, so this field is really getting a break now that the big mare has retired.

For those of you not familiar with Presque Isle Downs, don't write it off as a non-sexy, racino.  The fake dirt plays very fair, and the surface is safe too, with  a breakdown rate of .83 per 1,000 starts over five years, compared to 1.37 deaths per 1,000 starts from all fake dirt tracks and 1.92 deaths per 1,000 starts on all surfaces over the same period (The Jockey Club).

The Turk's love of horse racing ebbs and flows.  The dearth of good older horses, horses that have multi-year careers, really saps my enthusiasm.  I may be down on the current state of racing, but its fun events like Presque Isle's big weekend of racing that brings me back from the edges of apathy.  After spending most of the summer handicapping and betting instead of blogging (I didn't feel like I had much to say about the sport), I'm using the Masters Weekend as a way to regroup my blogs focus and start my preparations for the Breeders' Cup Saturday, always my favorite betting day of the year.
Anyways, let me get back to the task at hand, the Presque Downs Masters.



Northern Passion, the Ontario bred Mark Casse/Patrick Husbands combination is winless at the distance and most likely would like a few more panels, but I'm picking the 5 YO mare for her class and overall solid and consistent performances.  6 of 8 in the money on fake dirt, 9 of 17 lifetime in the money, 4 of last 9 in the money.

Disco Barbie will challenge for the win;  3 of 3 at PID, including her last time out 6.5 furlong Allowance win by 5.5 lengths as the heavily bet chalk.  4 of 5 in the money in 2014, 4 of 4 in the money on fake dirt and 3 of 3 at the distance, the 4 YO Kentucky bred is a horse for this course.

Master the Blues, the 5 YO Mare from Master Command, is a PID regular, but at shorter distances typically.  Desormeaux is up after riding her to a win at Del Mar in early August where she set her career best Beyer.

Ageless is a 5 YO Mare as well out of Successful Appeal and comes in off a driving 6f turf win.  This is first effort on fake dirt after going 5 for 5 in the money on Turf and 12 of 14 lifetime in the money, including 4 of 4 in the money in 2014.  She's the fastest and my consistent horse of the field.

Madame Cactus is entering her second race off a long layoff of >180 days, something trainer Peter Eurton wins 15% of the time with.  Talamo is up for the CA based 4 YO.

Living the Life (Ire) is Trained by Gary Mandella and has Mike Smith, up.  She's making her second North American start after winning her debut at Del Mar at 6 furlongs.  11 of 14 in the money over fake dirt lifetime 12 of 20 lifetime in the money.

My Option is capable of freakish good efforts like her 99 Beyer in the Grade 3 Chicago Handicap at Arlington Park but with clunkers along the way.

So what to do with this?  I'm leaning towards a fun ten cent superfecta built around my base handicap:  4-5 OVER 4-5-10-11 OVER 1-5-7-8-10-11 OVER 1-7-8-10-11 for a $9.60 bet.

Whatever you do, have fun and enjoy your track experience.

Finally, please remember in your prayers the family of Juan Vazquez, a 39 year old exercise rider killed in a training session on the Belmont track this past week.  Rest in Peace Juan.

Juan Vazquez (image used by courtesy of Barbara Livingston)

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Presque Isle Downs PID Masters Grade 2

We all have our racing traditions, and a fairly new one for me over the last few years is to play Presque Isle Downs pretty heavy immediately following the close of Saratoga. For those who have never been there, it's a nice racino near the shores of Lake Erie, about 90 miles south of the Turk's home near Buffalo. With a pumped up purse structure, the track has several big race days that attracts shippers to its very fair playing tapeta surface, the same fake dirt that's in Dubai and Golden Gate Fields, and in the Turk's opinion, one of the best.

Like with the majority of my life, I'm out of sequence with the mainstream. I enjoy Fall Racing more than I do the craziness that is Del Mar and Saratoga, and far more than I do the Triple Crown season. The next eight weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup is my favorite time of the year in racing, with horses being conditioned towards reaching their peak form, with the best of the best aiming for World Championships. As a fan of the handicap division and turf runners, these next few months represent what I enjoy about racing. I just don't care for two year old racing and quite honestly, I'm not that into three year olds. I like warriors and warrior princesses, I like to see 15 starts in the lifetime line and I like to see lots of tracks and lots of last furlong battles. I'm an information handicapper and a fan of the hard knocker's. Let's get it on!



Groupie Doll seems to be head and shoulders above the rest here. Before injury, two straight Grade 1 sprint wins by a combined 10+ lengths. Training sharply for Trainer Bradley, a :58 for 5f 15 days ago shows her to be fit. She will press the pace before unleashing a powerful close.

The field is big and talented. The Turk likes big fields, 9-12 horses is my preference. Below Groupie Doll is a talented collection of horses that can be had for a price. I'm anticipating Groupie Doll will go off even or less than even money which will create some real opportunities if the daughter of Bowman's Band stumbles.

Salty Strike (pictured above winning the Grade 3 Dogwood) comes in for trainer McPeek off three straight wins and a gritty Grade 3 win in early August. No wins on synthetic, no wins at distance, first PID start, but fast and a winner, 7 of 16 lifetime. No Lasix for this girl: From an article written by Joe Aaron after the Grade 3 Gardenia, McPeek said the medication has had an adverse affect with Salty Strike in the past. "It dulls her a little bit when you give her lasix, so we don't treat her with it," said McPeek. "She doesn't need it. She runs very well without it." How novel. She carries a race high 123 pounds, same as Groupie Doll.

It's Me Mom set a smokin' pace last time out at Saratoga; :21/:43 3/5ths before fading. 6 of 9 wins at PID, 8 of 9 in the money on Synthetics and 8 wins in last 13 starts and 11 wins in 19 trips to starting gate. Expect to strike the first turn on the lead. Only concern is how far she'll drop in the last 1/16. Expecting top four finish.

Ariana D and Sweet Cassiopeia have a shot at hitting the ticket but Atlantic Hurricane, shipping in from Woodbine, has a chance to make the most noise. 11 of 11 in the money over the last two seasons.

Post time is in an hour. I better get after the betting.

I'm thinking Superfecta with most tickets singling Groupie Doll on top.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday September 10, 2011; The Grade 2 Grab Bag of the Super Derby and Masters

Who else still looks up expecting to see them? Ten years later and it has yet to mentally compute that they are just gone, these iconic towers that captured in my imagination what the big city was like.

I've stood in the Pentagon, at the very place where the plane struck. I've stood at the edge of ground zero and looked into the pit, remembering the days I visited the building when it was a vibrant and bustling office city.

If you are reading a horse racing blog, chances are you are old enough to have your own 9/11 story. I have mine and I no longer think about the images of the buildings being stuck or falling, I now only think about the names and faces of some of the dead, men and women of a similar age to me, with children, veterans, police and fire fighters. That's all the memory links within my mind lead me to.

Life has gone on for the rest of us, damaged but alive, but for the victims of 9/11, they are locked in time, hopefully resting in peace.

God Bless the United States of America.



I assembled two very simple bets for no reason other than I had plans to see the University of Buffalo home football opener with Little Turk and his buddy, and I had to place the bets and go.

A Trifecta and Superfecta were constructed using my base handicaps. The day was made positive by the Trifecta win in the Presque Isle Downs Masters and the Superfecta win in the Super Derby.

In the hits category I forwardly placed Populist Politics and Awesome Bet in the Super Derby, the 6th and 7th betting public choices, and I had Musical Romance covered in the Masters. I'm looking for misses and i can't really say I blew anything, but that is the fine line of handicapping and betting, one change in position is the difference. I would have never included $46.20 Promised Mandate in my PID Super. I never expected Ariana D. to be so backed, I viewed her as value. Trubs and Meistersinger didn't fire as well as hoped.

Good sized fields with competition up and down the starting gate is much more preferable to me than a five horse Grade I. Good stuff indeed.

Remember the dead, and the loved ones they left behind. Remember the military, the only segment of the American public at war and living as being at war daily.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: 10 September 2011; The Grade 2 Racing Grab Bag- PID Masters and Super Derby

One of my favorite things about horse racing is the selection; You would think the weekend after the prestigious racing meets at Saratoga and Del Mar close that there wouldn't be anything that could interest you: How wrong you would be. I'm a horse racing fan first, handicapper and degenerate bettor second. Sure I love Grade One racing on the biggest stages, on national TV, but there is some good stuff out there almost every weekend of the year, and that's what I am, a weekend horse fella.

I debated what I wanted to handicap today and that debate always starts at the stakes schedule. I had alot of options but I settled on handicapping two tracks I seldom work, Louisiana Downs and Presque Isle Downs. Why? Big fields and the PP's just looked fun. I'm easy (relax ladies, I'm not available).

There were some nice turf events at Belmont, Kentucky Downs and Woodbine, and some nice fake dirt events at Arlington, but I printed The Super Derby Grade 2 at LaD and The Masters Grade 2 at PID and I got the red gel pen out and got engaged. No excuses if I don't have fun, I picked my pleasure.

I received my Breeders' Cup purple 2011 Breeders' Cup ball cap in the mail yesterday.

I am such a geek and I'm completely unapologetic about it. I am so excited about the Breeders' Cup this year and I look forward to meeting more of the great folks I've had the pleasure of getting to know through Facebook, Twitter, and the various racing blogs. It's a nice community of fans in horse racing, eclectic to say the least. One of the things I like about horse racing is the passion of, and the acceptance that women receive as turf writers, bloggers, fans and handicappers. What other non female related sport is that accepting? All good stuff!

Anyway, lets get after this!



I've had some intense handicapping sessions over the past few weeks. They have been lucrative to me but also draining. In the past I may have taken a handicappers holiday and put the red pen down for a weekend, but I've decided this year to handicap every week but only ramp up the effort (and the cash I'm willing to lay down) three or four more times between now and Breeders' cup weekend. My goal is to stay sharp and stay engaged with my PP reading skills.

I learned to handicap in an era before You Tube and Google; I use to handicap whole cards on the night shift of my job (I don't advocate this behavior generally, it was just a 12 hour shift and not much to do). I did not trip handicapping and seldom got any feedback on the races that I handicapped except the WPS results in the next days paper. I feel pretty good just looking at the PPs and nothing much else but the funny thing is, no matter how long I've been doing it, if I don't do it regularly I get sloppy. I'll take a bit of a break in November after the Breeders' Cup but for right now, I'm going to keep workin' it.

I checked the weather at Louisiana Downs. Hot but dry. I'm not much worried about the fake dirt track in Erie, PA, about 90 minutes south of Turk.

Lets start with the Super Derby: Prayer for Relief, the Baffert trainee for Zayat Stables and two time graded stakes winner, appears to be a heavy duty chalk in this spot; two late turns of foot on dirt at 8+ furlongs, two Derby wins in West Virgina and Iowa, Baffert 25% off a 30-60 day break, 25% winning last starts, 33% on dirt. Heavy duty expect 6-5, 5-6 something not worth betting; Let's bet against him!

I'm putting Trubs on top; The Al Stall runner is 2 of 2 at LaD, has 4 wins on fast dirt and is very game. Stall has Sellers up and they combine for 32% wins. Stall has stats that stand up to Baffert: 28% off 45-180 day break, 28% off 30 to 60 day break, 33%winners of last start, 32% graded stakes.

Don't want to throw caution to the wind like the ol' Turk? There will be some legitimate prices that should be considered. Alternation with R. Dominguez up, is a strong runner with 4 wins on fast dirt and 1 win at the distance. The Distorted Humor son is off to a fresh start after abandoning Triple Crown dreams and winning the Grade 2 Peter Pan before coming up a bit flat in the Jim Dandy.

10 cent Super's and fifty cent Tri's are on the menu; I like some exotic possibility here with the value coming if Prayers for Rain falters, even if just to Place.

At Presque Isle I'm hunting for value too and I've settled on Ariana D: 16 of 20 in the money on fake dirt, winless in 2011 with 4 Place finishes and I love the running lines, " gamely...all out inside....detirminedly...up late driving". Desormeaux is up, not exactly my favorite rider but a big fish in this pond. Sweet Lorena is a horse for the course but may not be classy enough to win on a track she generally owns: 15 of 15 in the money at PID, 16 of 18 in the money on fake stuff for the 7 YO NY State bred mare from Langfuhr. Beat the Blues should only be ignored at your own peril.

I'm layer handicapping both races. I will be building exotics and who exactly wins is a bit moot and only matters to drive the value of the bet higher or lower. A nice betting menu is available for the PID Masters;$2 WPS, $2 Exactas, fifty cent Tri's and ten cent Super's.

I'm going to sit back and have a bit of fun with these nice sized fields and beatable chalks (at least I hope).

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 9, 2011: The Presque Isle Downs Mile Preview

Life is all about timing. Being in the right place at the right time and taking advantage of the right moments is something you learn and it's something I try to teach the Little Turk. Opportunity knocks and you have to answer!

I think Presque Isle Downs gets it. A racino, sure, but slowly but surely improving the race product and they place a big weekend in their calendar the first weekend after Saratoga and Del Mar closes when addicts like me are jonesing for a big field and beatable chalk.

On the Friday night card we have a nice field of 12 runners going after $250,000 in the Presque Isle Mile. Three millionaires and my tentative chalk, Stunning Stag, set to break a million.

If I were writing a handicapping book I'd use these PP's as an example of runners of various class rising and falling, as well as turf and dirt to synthetic angles and distance increase and decrease angles. Take some time with these PP's like the Ol' Turk is doing. I printed them last night and I've been marinating in them. I love the challenge that this field will present and I think there is some money to be made with the exotic options here.

I've laid out my initial thoughts and I'll sleep on it and finish up by early Friday.

Have fun with this, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Mile and Pick Three

It's been sometime since the lovely Dita wanted to sit with the Turk for a cigar. While we didn't talk much, instead reflecting quietly on the maduro wrapper and the sun cured tobacco that was loving rolled by the artisans at Padron Cigars, she did say that the fact that The Turk preaches just a few simple principles, that he talks it and walks it, made her want to celebrate. Who am I to say no?

Simple principles. Principle #1 is always to pick your marks. There are lots of races every day, find ones you think you can beat. Principle #2 is that you have to build a base handicap, a reordering of the field from start to finish without the bias of morning lines, talking heads, TVG/HRTV/DRF hype. Principle #3 is to take that handicap and work the tote board. I'm looking for value, not chalk, and with my "built in a vacuum" handicap approach, look for horses you are bullish on that you seem to have a different opinion on then the betting public.

I reckon those are the big three. The Turk hit a nice strike on an unlikely Allowance Race on synthetic track none the less because he followed his principles. Let's go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7



The target was the Pick Three. The Pick Three paid $188 and I should have hit it, winning the first and third legs, but missing on the leg I singled. My second highest ranked horse won the race but I made a decision to not spend $36 on a Pick Three that seemed very chalky to me and I can take losing $12 dollars instead of over covering the bet. Others will disagree but over the long run over covering will raise the investment and only marginally increase the ROI.

I was watching the tote board for Race 6 and salivating; My base handicap valued horses that were the 5th and sixth favorites of the betting public. My top horse, New Englander was the overwhelming bettor's chalk but I thought Place and Show would be owned by these value horses and I'd have a nice payout. Taking my top 5 I rolled the dice, and lacking the time I normally have, I boxed all five and let it ride. Boxing Sherribaldi, Iowa Alice, Jewels and Jeans , the 4th, 5th and 6th top choices of the bettors and then having them actually win produced a $1,442.60 trifecta win.

Remember, this isn't bragging. The Turk doesn't brag and he respects this game. I am humbled by it regularly, but you have to savor the good times along the path of life, and this was a good one for Big Turk because it was an affirmation of my principles and the time that I put into my craft.

I made the strike and didn't even care to bet the Presque Isle Mile, which I had pretty much horsecollered and I left some money on the table in that race, but I'll leave you today with another principle: Don't be greedy, forget the idea of needing "action". Pick and choose the races you bet. If you're not concentrating or you don't feel it, keep your money in your pocket and walk on.

Thanks Mrs. Turk for your patience.

Remember 9/11 and what we collectively lost on that day.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Downs Mile and the Pick Three

The Turk caters to a certain reader; a review of my analytics paints me a picture of some heavy hitting hard core gamblers that are reading my blog at this very moment. Those hard core whales are looking for some action on a Friday afternoon, and this weekend, I'm all about Presque Isle Downs. Presque. You don't have to pronounce it to play it, so lets give it a twirl. In all seriousness, for a Race Casino, it's a nice place, an easy location for the Turk to get to, and there are all kinds of things around it like huge outlet malls and water splash parks for those of you that like that stuff. The beer is cold, the tapeta crap plays pretty fair, and you'll likely to see a Sheppard/Strawberry/Augustin Stable runner there pretty often. They have positioned their big weekend on the first weekend after Saratoga ends. Not bad, well played. Let's Go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7 including the $250,000 Presque Isle Mile



Some interesting fields will make these races challenging, but challenging is what I'm all about at the end of a long day! In Race 7, The Presque Isle Mile, I stewed on these runners for sometime trying to logically write them down in a predictive order of finish. I settled on Gayego to win, a tepid chalk for me indeed. 8 of 11 lifetime in the money on the fake stuff and familiar with tapeta from the tracks he ran on in Dubai, Alan Garcia ships in to ride for Godolphin. he's stretching back out to a mile after settling into the 6-7 furlong distances but he's capable.

Stunning Stag takes the QEW down from Woodbine for Sid Attard. Pulling back in distance, he's training very well and has looked sharp since May. Easily capable of winning, watch the odds, 6-1 in the morning line, I think he sinks to 7-2 by post time.

Who knows what Mambo Meister will bring? Trainer Gleaves only wins 12% of the time stretching out from sprints to routes and wins only 13% of his routes and 14% of his races overall. This is his 31st start and only second fake dirt try. I'm discounting him a few spots on many cards and I should show some conviction and drop him further but the horse is 19 of 30 in the money lifetime and has the class. I'm dropping him a few slots on most cards.

The second tier is a very nice collection of horses and many of them could easily beat Mambo Meister into that top three. Successful Dan ships in for Grade I winning Trainer Charles Lopresti and he gets Eclipse Award winning J. Leparoux up. He's been training sharply at Keeneland on the fake stuff and ran last out at Arlington in early August on that fake stuff.

Allie's Event won an N2Y with a 92 BSF at 1 mile here at PID in mid August. A 4f :47 last week lets us know he's still sharp. He represents serious value if he reaches the gate >7-1.

Last year's champ, Cherokee Artist returns as a 5 YO. More than capable still. Rocking Rockstar has won 4 starts in 8 tries on fake dirt and his last two synthetic efforts were, rockin. I Know Why, a 4 YO sin of Why Why Why tries fake stuff for the first time but has won three times this year and could break the top four.

I'm going to single the middle race and keep the bet risk relatively low for the pick three at $18. I'll bet the mile with Super's and Tri's with variations of my base handicap including some variations where I will drop Mambo Meister out of top four and Gayego to Show and fourth.

The Turk is all for Chip getting Mine That Bird back for his 5 YO season. I don't know what the Bird has left but it seems to me that he's been placed in positions all year of unrealistic expectations. I had a blast on Woodward Day at the Spa with Sister Turk and I'm glad I got to see the gelding run.



Have Fun, Turk Out!