The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade 1

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, and this week's race of interest, The Stephen Foster Handicap.  Before I go to far, I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing this hack handicapper and wretched blogger the opportunity to write for its good members.

Poor Stephen Foster.  He wrote some of the most memorable songs in Americana, including Camptown Races, Old Susanna and My Old Kentucky home, yet he died penniless at age 37 after smashing his head into a chamber pot  as he passed out from a high fever.

We remember him each year for this race, and his songs are forever ingrained into people of my generation and before me, you know, when kids use to play outside and frolicked in the summer before electronics.

I like the Stephen Foster Handicap quite a bit and its a key handicap division match.  This edition of the race presents some real challenges to a handicapper and bettor.  In a relatively small field of seven, you could make a legitimate case for five to Win and the final two, and their long prices, take away from the betting opportunity a bit.  I think Lea will be the post time chalk and near even money with Commissioner and Hoppertunity hovering near 4 or 5 to 1.  If you are price hunting that leaves from my legitimate five two more runners, Noble Bird and Cat Burglar.  Noble Bird is intriguing to me while Cat Burglar coming off the Pimlico Special show I've relegated to Show or Fourth in this Crowd.

I expect it to be wet based on this weather forecast.  Keep your eye on track conditions as well as scratches, as if the field drops to six, especially if one of my tosses scratches, value starts to really get diluted.

Let's get after this!

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Lea/2	A+
Place	Noble Bird/4	A-
Show	Commissioner/1	A-
Exotic	Hopportunity/5	B++
Also Ran's	Cat Burgler/7	B-
	Paganol/3	C+
	Majestic Harbor/6	C-
	Churchill Downs Race 8: Post Time 9:42 ET	The Stephen Foster Handicap G1
	1 1/8 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YO's and Up

I typically hate playing horses returning from Dubai, but Lea has been freshened and is training well. Trainer Mott is 15% off the layoff, the horse is 5 for 5 in the money on fast dirt, has a win in the wet stuff and is a versatile turf runner as well.  13 of 15 in the money lifetime for Lea and connections.

Commissioner should challenge for the Win.  Trainer Pletcher's 4 YO son of A.P. Indy has won two straight at a 1/16 longer than today and should be out there on the pace if he comes well from the gate and gets forward positioning.

I've slipped Noble Bird in fairly high on my handicap and he'll be equally high in my bet construction.  The 4 YO is not in the same class as the other top horses here but current form seems really good:  a close loss by a head in the Grade 2 Alysheba here at CD on Oaks Day, a nice run a KEE before that for a win. He may not like the extra route of dirt as he's more of a miler, but we'll see.  Expect anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1 odds, so I like the value in the Top 3.

Hoppertunity was my Derby horse last year before he scratched.  I liked his win here in the Clark Handicap last Thanksgiving but he hasn't really built far off of that.  I like Smith up today and his solid work at CD since early April for Trainer Baffert who is 22% of a layoff like this.

And finally Cat Burglar, Baffert's other runner here, who's a bit slow but steady.  I have him pegged from 2nd to 4th.

With five horses I think can finish in the Top 4 I'm thinking Trifecta/Superfecta with the only real question if I take a stand and single Lea for the Win.

Something like this:  a $2 Super of 2 OVER 4-1-5-7 OVER 4-1-5-7 OVER 4-1-5-7 is a $48 dollar bet.   It's alot of betting capital for a return that may be kinda eh.

A 2-1-4-5-7 $2 Tri Box would cost $120.  Eh.

A $2 Tri with 2 OVER 1-4-5-7 OVER 1-4-5-7 would cost $24 bucks.

I like the handicap, I'm not sure I like my bet ideas yet.  Have some fun with it friends, keep the gambling real and enjoy.

Don't forget to tune into NBC Saturday Night for the races.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Pimlico Special on Black Eyed Susan Day

Page McKenney in Purple with Silver Diamonds

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk on Black Eyed Susan Day. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for giving me the opportunity to handicap for you today's Pimlico Special, a Grade 3, 1 3/16 mile affair on the dirt for 3 Year Olds and Up.  To the left is Page McKenney, a local trained by Mary Eppler, a closer whose in the deep end of the pool class wise and will have to be at his very best to hit the ticket today.  We are gambling after all, so let's take a look at this field and see what we are working with.

Let's get it (our preak) on!  By the way, thanks to Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club, for use of the photo.

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Commissioner/10	A-
Place	Page McKenney/5	B-
Show	Transparent/2	A-
Exotic	Top Billing/8	B-
Also Ran's	Cat Burglar/9	B
	Vyjack/7	C++
	Encryption/3	C-
	Kid Cruz/6	D
	Tapiture/1	Scratched
	Albano/4	Scratched
	Pimlico Race 14: Post Time 6:21 ET	Pimlico Special G3
	1 3/16 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

It's hard not to like the Evil Empire's   Todd Pletcher's Commissioner.  His last four races back to the Belmont Stakes last year, he has sat right on the pace, within 2 lengths of the lead at first call, and you should expect that today.  Purely on class, the son of A.P. Indy seems to be the package, but don't get carried away by any hype.  He laid an egg in the Donn Handicap, was barely Show in an Optional Claimer one race and one month before that, and then he went unraced after the Belmont.  I think you'd be foolish to not cover him in the top spot, but let's hope that he cracks and one of the closers gets him, as there is money to be made in this race if that happens.

The closer bench got a bit shorter with the scratch of Tapiture, offset by the scratch of pace setter Albano. Still, closers like Page McKenney and Top Billing still provide a horse player some hope as both will go off >10-1 I reckon.

Page McKenney is my top upset pick.  Remember, most longer odds finish in Place, not Win, but let's suspend analytics for a moment and get caught up in how cool it would be for a local to win here.  The sport always needs a feel good story and the horse lover in my is a sucker for that stuff.  The cold horse player in me still likes what I see: deep closes in last three races, 23 of 34 in the money lifetime, 12 of 15 life time in the money on fast dirt and the local edge.

Returning to probabilities, Transparent and Cat Burglar loom as threats from a 4-1 to 6-1 range of value.   The Florida bred Transparent is a big fat tease in my book.  4 of 16 wins to starts, 4 of 13 wins to starts on fast dirt, some hideous Grade 1 starts, but some pretty sharp current form for McLaughlin's Godolphin 5 YO Bernadini son.  If he's not on the pace, he's most likely not winning, unless this dog learns new tricks late in his career.

Top Billing, son of Curlin, has an unaccomplished 6 race career so far.  His last race was a deep close and he trained sharply at 4f in :48 flat last time out over BEL.  Don't ignore.

Cat Burglar is criminally low in my handicap but you have to take positions and live with it.  Baffert is shipping in the 5 YO Unbridled son with 9 career starts, 8 of 9 in the money, 8 of 9 in the money on fast dirt, and a lack luster first effort of 2015, although Baffert is 24% on 29 tries in the 2nd effort off a long layoff.  He's put some nice bullets up lately, the most impressive :47 2/5ths in 4F at CD.

Vyjack is an on the pace runner who has cracked more than he's gamely rallied.  He won the G1 Kelso last year in September and not much since.  Handicapping is about current form, pace, class and little else and I don't see it here.

So what to make of this?

I could go easy and play some exacta's:  a 2-5-8-9-10 $2 Box is $40 bucks.  Great if someone other than Commissioner wins, not so great otherwise.

I may play a few Tri's:  Something like this: 5-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 a $2 bet for $48 or 5-8-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 a $2 bet for $72.

Have some fun with it friends, I think that this race, as long as it stays at 8 horses, should provide some value.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

Lea winning the Commonwealth G3- Reed Palmer Photography

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to start by thanking the good folks at The Thorofan for allowing this hack internet handicapper to write for the Handicapper's Corner this weekend for the Donn Handicap, a Grade 1, $500,000 purse race that for me, and most handicappers, is the first truly special race of the new race season for colts, fillies, horses and mares  4 years old and up.

In a ten horse field you might be able to make a case for six of the horses here to win the race, some of them at very good odds of 6-1 or greater.  I'm thinking the top spot will be pretty chalky, but that doesn't mean the exotic bets can't have some value.  Let's build a handicap and then figure out a bet structure.

This is always a challenging time of the year as a handicapper as its sometimes hard to gauge which of the runners coming off of breaks or making their second race off a break will be ready.  I lean heavy on the work tab and recent race form to guide me.

Let's watch a couple of recent races at Gulfstream Park, the G3 Hal's Hope and the Sunshine Millions Classic (and lets use that term Classic in this case loosely) to get a feel for some of the key runners, as well as the Clark Handicap, the last good Grade 1 race for the handicap division held the day after Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs.

Hal's Hope G3 GP 1 Mile





Sunshine Millions Classic $250K GP 1 1/8



Clark Handicap G1 CD 1 1/8



Glean from these what you like.  I like to evaluate form, trip, compete level in the stretch, and strength of field.



I like Lea quite a bit and the home bred came off the injured reserve looking very sharp with one burst run to take the Hal's Hope in early January. Trainer Mott's is 34% on the second start off a long break and 30% won last start.  7 wins in 13 starts, 3 for 3 at GP and 3 for 3 on fast dirt.  I think I may single.

I'm leaning towards East Hall for Place which would bring real value to bet.  Trainer Kaplan's runner wasn't exactly driving for Place in Sunshine Millions Classic and barely held off Catholic Cowboy and lost to an inferior horse. The four year old seems to be improving although he is winless in three starts at the distance, 13 of 20 in the money and $772,000 in winnings for the 4 YO gelding. Feast or famine, he could easily finish outside top four.

A more likely horse is one of three Trainer Pletcher entries, Constitution, last year's Florida Derby winner.  Pletcher has been bringing him back easily since his return to running after injury in the Florida Derby took him off the Triple Crown trail.  I'd like to see him do a bit more but I do like the bullet at 5f on January 26th but I still need to see something before I swoon.

Commissioner is a colt who looks the part yet doesn't have great results and hasn't won in 13 months, a 75K Optional Claimer at this distance on this track.  Johnny V is up for Pletcher, a combo that wins 30% of the time at GP.  Not sold yet on him either.

Protonico, Pletcher's third entry, seems like the sleeper to me and may be worth a win bet flyer.  Training regularly since the Clark H., he has flashed lots of potential.

Sloane Avenue is a wildcard colt and the 4 YO Candy Ride (Arg) from Apt (AP Indy) has the bloodlines to be something, even though that something is hard to figure out.  Two low level Kempton wins at one mile in RH direction and he does have a LH win as well.  Would be a shocker for big value.

I'm tossing Elnaawi and Prayers for Relief at my own peril but you can't cover everyone. I'm not accusing anyone of anything, but I would like to see the journeyman Prayers for Relief retired soon. It's been a looooooooonnnnnggggg time since he won and at 36 starts and nearly $2.0 MM of earnings I think he deserves a pension.  I'm not taking Catholic Cowboy or Blue Note very seriously.

So what to do with all this?

I'm leaning towards a simple Trifecta with Lea singled on top and quite a bit of coverage just below:

 $2 Trifecta:  4 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 1-2-3 5-7-9-10 =$36 bet

$2 Super Hi 5:  4 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 2-3-7-8 OVER 2-3-5-7-8-10= $120 bet

I'm not sure what I'm going to do yet but with the base handicap done, I can use the toteboard as well as observations from the paddock and post parade to finalize my bet.

Have fun with this friends!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Sunland Derby Grade 3

Today's Sunland Derby offers us a choice between Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert runners, each with two quality starters in the gate to go along with five Also Rans, at least on paper. Isn't that the beauty of handicapping, finding the on paper Also Ran and making a case for him to win or be somewhere on your exotic ticket. Often these lesser thought can sneak onto the ticket from Place to Fifth (yes there is a Super Hi Five Option today) while the more thought of animals take their place in the winners circle. To me, I'm OK with putting on my ticket heavy chalk if I can make a case for longer odds hitting my ticket in the runner up spots. I'm not sure I can do that today but let's take a look.




At first blush I think there will be a sizzling opening quarter time, perhaps :23 even.  Lots of these horses will go fast early, like Garen from the two spot and Tanzanite Cat from the five.  Pletcher's  two, Commissioner and Global Strike, aren't bashful about going fast early but if Commissioner wants to win he'll need to have John V slow him down and come off the pace.  Blinkers on for Commissioner, he has a chance to be a complete bust here as well.  Baffert's two, Midnight Hawk and Chitu leave California for the first time.  Midnight Hawk, with Mike Smith up, is a good but not yet great colt who will contest the pace and will be somewhere in the top four I reckon.  Chitu breaks from the far outside and is making his first start since early February, a rest Baffert wins off of 24% of the time.

Looking for value, I'm considering Global Strike in the win spot.  I think he'll attract the least betting action of the Pletcher/Baffert big four.  His effort on turf tells me he can fire off the pace late while he hasn't shown it on dirt yet.  Castellano is up and Pletcher and he win 32% of the time, a better percentage than what you might think with Pletcher and John Velazquez at 28%.

I'm not sure I'm an investor in this race.  I'm unsure of the pace and how it will be contested, and I don't have a strong enough opinion either way.  I'm afraid I'll just be an observer.

If I were to bet I think I'd follow my base handicap and go with a $1 Trifecta 4-9 OVER 4-7-3-9 OVER 4-7-3-9-6 for $40. I'm not sure I like that but something along those lines.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!