The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Friday Distaff Grade I

That pretty A.P. Indy girl is Music Note, multiple Grade I winner and a force to be reckoned with in today's Breeders' Cup Distaff that was renamed the wretched Ladies Classic by perhaps the same idiots that renamed the divisions in the NHL to bland regional names from the names of former greats in the game. I digress. Music Note is not my chalk but is the morning line favorite and will attract much betting attention.

Race 8 at Santa Anita Post Time 6:45 ET; The Breeders' Cup Distaff Grade I; 1 1/8 Miles on Fake Dirt that may or may not be safer then real dirt for F&M 3 YO and Up.


The Turk is a handicapper. The printed paper of my PPs is where I place my faith. I believe in a consistent approach and an even keel in good times and bad. I'm also a bettor at times, one that doesn't make "action plays", one that doesn't subscribe to the silly bankroll strategies I read in many handicapping books. Warren Buffet likes to say that he wants to jump as many one foot hurdles as he can and doesn't waste his time with seven foot hurdles. That's my betting philosophy, make your scores count and learn when not to bet, the hardest lesson of all.

If I listened to my own rules, most of Breeders' Cup weekend I'd sit on the sidelines. Screw the rules sometimes, I want to have fun and the Distaff is a fun race with some fantastic filly's and mares going at it. Let me shut my trap and get it on!

I'm taking a shot with Life Is Sweet today. She hasn't won since stringing together a few Grade I's and a Grade II at SA in the spring meet and she's lost to Zenyatta three times and the boys, Rail Trip specifically, at the Hollywood Gold Cup. Training very well for Shirreffs and Gomez is up, a couple of folks who win 38% of the time together at SA.

Music Note and Careless Jewel are two very wonderful dirt horses. I have them as high as I do because they are seriously well crafted classy animals and Grade I winners. They are in my top four, with Careless Jewel hedging a bit down on a few tickets.

I'll put Proviso (GB) and Rainbow View into the same bucket. Both Grade I winners and seemingly peaking.

It pained me to place Lethal Heat last. The reality is this should be a barn burner and I think its wide open.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 3, 2009; The California Cup Classic Handicap 1 1/8 miles on the fake stuff at Oak Tree at Santa Anita

Alydar. The name conjures up an era that came crashing down, the end of Calumet, and a link to what we had and where we are now. Oh mighty Alydar, in your devil red and blue silks, rest in peace and look favorably down on your great grandson, Grazen, the Turk's favorite to win the California Cup Classic Handicap. The picture was taken by the Turk's favorite horse shutterfly, the incredible Barbara Livingston.

Santa Anita Race 6, Post Time 5:30 PM ET; The California Cup Classic Handicap 200K; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt for CA Bred or CA Sired 3 YO and Up.



Not my featured race of the day but it is in keeping with my practice of handicapping as many races as humanly possible at Santa Anita as we lead up to the Breeders' Cup. While my Daily Race Form Simulcast Daily subscription provides the race charts and track bias information to me over the course of the meet, I find it much more useful to "invade" certain tracks at certain times of the year and play it early and often. I like Santa Anita an awful lot, fake dirt and all, and I like the workout information I see from there and can corroborate with other sources. Sure wish I could say that about other tracks.

The field is currently six and right now there are no changes.

Grazen, coming off an early September win at 1 Mile at Del Mar where he edged out Chocolate Candy, is my chalk. He sports the races best BSF on fake dirt at 103 and the best BSF at today's distance, a 98. He has trained sharply and the 3 YO is 5 for 5 in the money in 2009. Jock/Trainer clip away at 41% win rate over 80 races the past year. Trainer Mitchell wins 23% of the fake stuff races, and with Gomez up, a pretty tough combo.

Lethal Heat, the lone filly, will be right on Grazen's heels. Much to like and a few things not too. Last three efforts saw the filly strike the front only to fade at the final call. 6 of 7 in the money on fake stuff and 12 of 14 lifetime, too good to not hit the ticket.

Flip a coin on Star Nicholas and Bold Chieftain. I like Bold Chieftain and the distance, but the two Baze's up should be there on the ticket.

Blackbriar is interesting and at the right odds a Show bet not out of the question. One Chin Again is a hard knockin' 4 YO gelding that isn't of the quality of the others.

Have Fun. The Turk has at least 3 more handicapped for today. Turk Out for Now.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day January 18, 2009

Santa Anita Race 8, The El Encino Stakes G2, 1 1/16 miles on Pro Ride for 4 YO Fillies



With Lethal Heat scratched, I saw an opportunity to place Ginger Punch and Country Star in a Super, with Life is Sweet and Miss Singhsix.

The Turk is not a big bettor. He picks his marks and he walks when he doesn't feel the bet is worth the risk. What seperates The Turk from the big whales (besides the fact I work a real job by day) is the mindset; I'm too conservative to have a bankroll that I'm prepared to lose. My conservative style means I eek out meagerly, but there is an odd fulfillment this brings me, as I turn small amounts of money into slightly larger amounts of money.

I was bang on with my boxed Super today. I thought the risk on the box was worth it, as the top four horses in this race were clearly the top four horses. The money was spread around enough to produce a decent $156 payout.

I would have liked to have seen Lethal Heat run, and I had expected Ginger Pop to win, but you can't get everything. Country Star had the race won and couldn't finish the deal. I was impressed by Life is Sweet after such a long layoff. Shirreffs did a great job having her ready.

Updates Before Post: Race 9 Santa Anita- January 18, 2009

Lethal Heat and Foxy Danseur are scratches. I expected Lethal Heat to win this race, but I thought it was a toss up with Ginger Pop.

I may stay on the sidelines, but I'll be watching the tote right up to post, and I'm leaning towards a trifecta or superfecta with my list. We'll see where the odds go in a few minutes when the 7th race gets off the board.

The Nomination is In : January 18th, 2009

The Turk is looking at the Grade 2 El Encino Stakes at the Great Race Place, 1 1/16 miles on Santa Anita's pro ride fake dirt (that only drains so-so- blame it on the last fake dirt)for 4 YO fillies.



It's a chalky type of outlook, but in my opinion there are three chalks in this race. I like the near trajectories that Lethal Heat and Ginger Pop are on. I like the works and the fact that they've ended their winter vacations early and kept working through the holidays. Country Star has the chops, but I have to question if she's ready after such a long layoff. I think Life is Sweet and Foxy Danseur could cause some mix up in the final order, but I can't see anyone taking the wire from one of the big three.

I'm in a winter cocoon right now that I'm rejoining the Turk clan in. Enjoy the races.

Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 3, 2009

The Turk has a few axioms he lives by as a handicappper. Most of these handicapping rules I stole from other people, men like Brad Free and Andrew Beyer, but that's neither here nor there and luckily personal integrity isn't mandatory to bet the ponies.

The most important thing we do when picking horse races is identifying what horses have a chance to win and which ones don't. I love to state the obvious. Picking potential winners out of a field of twenty or less is where it all begins. The sexy handicapping thing is to talk about exotic plays with matrix charts and wheels. I'll save sexy for other people and I'll stick with simply trying to identify who I think will win, who I think has a chance to win, and who doesn't have a chance in a one horse match race.

In the races I handicapped yesterday, I identified three of the top four horses in each race. Of course I'd prefer four for four, and I strive for that type of perfection, but it is what it is. What we do with the information of who may win is where sexy comes into play. Turk won't be bringing sexy back anytime soon.

In Race 4 at GP, The Spectacular Bid, a 6f shindig on dirt for 3 YOs.



Notonthesamepage had been beaten soundly by some of the best 2 YO's in fall racing, taking on Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, Munnings, Square Eddie and Pioneer of the Nile. He drilled 4f and 5f works since early December and the reduction in distance powered him to an impressive win by 8 1/4 lengths. I missed with Jazzandthemagician, and I never saw Bee Cee Cee, nor did the bettors.

In Race 8 at Aqueduct, The Count Fleet, 1 mile and 70 Yards on NYS dirt, the result was not surprising to anyone. Haynesfield winning by 3 1/2 lengths over a slim 5 horse field propels himself squarely onto my Derby watch. I was disappointed with Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq, and hopefully they will be on a track again within 4-5 weeks.



And at Santa Anita Park, The Great Race Place, Race 8, The Monrovia Handicap G3, About 6 1/2f on the downhill Turf Course, for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.


Jibboom was my only A plus horse, my chalk, going into the race. I liked his works of 4f and 5f going into the race. I was happy with the odds up on the board and cashed $5.40 on the win. I liked Society Hostess, but she never really fired. I never saw Christina's Heat and I had her lumped in as a B minus, top 8 horse. Good for her. Looking at her in hindsight, she's a steady girl, and she gave her usual steady effort yesterday. I'm going to watch her and see where she's entered next.

It was a fun first weekend of the new year.