The Nomination Is In: The Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs

Happy Thanksgiving and Welcome to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share the musings of an old school handicapper with you today.  I've been blogging the Clark Handicap for many years and I'm reusing a post of mine from 5 years ago, 2011.  I figure if the Zayatt's can reuse a runner from that day, Prayers for Relief, I could reuse this as well.

Before I go too far,  I am thankful for the economic means that allows me to raise my family; I thank my employer. I thank my loving family. I cherish my friends, even though the introvert that I am doesn't make me a very social friend. I thank my pets.  I of course, thank my God.

Baseball fans get all misty eyed talking about Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, and as a hockey fan, I was saddened to see our Buffalo Memorial Auditorium condemned and knocked down in the name of luxury suites and more concessions. There is something special about these old places; places you shared highs and lows with, maybe with your father, your friends, your girlfriend, now your wife, your children.

Fenway and Wrigley were built in 1911 and 1914 respectively. Churchill Downs has existed since 1875, with the iconic twin spires going up in 1895. The driving force behind the creation of the track was Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark, grandson of the famous American explorer, General William Clark of the William and Clark expedition of 1804-1806, the first transcontinental expedition of the United States, and whose mother was from one of Kentucky's first and leading families, the Churchill's.

At the age of 29, Meriwether Clark saw the first edition of this race run. As in all things in life, you don't really own something unless you really own it, and his mother's two brothers left the land to others after their death and Meriwether found himself as nothing more than a race steward by 1897. Already hurt deeply by poor financial investments, and followed by the loss of the track, Meriwether committed suicide in 1899 at the age of 53 years old. One can't help but think he stands along the rail along with all the other horse players we've said goodbye to over the years, players like Shawn Murphy, Rose Rizzo and Tiznow Reynolds.  Our dead horse players  watch these equine heroes run over the same route of dirt in South of Louisville like they been doing for the past 141 years.

I love old racetracks. I stare out at the track and I see and hear the ghosts of races past thundering up the stretch. The Clark Handicap is a tradition of mine, a wonderful post Thanksgiving Day event that I look forward too, an echo of the season that has essentially concluded, a harbinger of the coming winter, and a hint of handicap division to come once the sun returns.

Let's get after this!




I'm leaning towards Noble Bird being my fairly tepid Chalk.  3 of 4 in the money at Churchill Downs, 3 wins in 6 starts at the distance, a trainer-jock combo clipping along at a 29% win rate at CD, this on the lead runner has my nod and we'll see if he can hold what should be his lead at the top of the stretch.

Here's Noble Bird winning the G2 Hagyand Fayette  at KEE in late October setting a track record in the process.



I sure like Gun Runner an awful lot, just another great son of Candy Ride (Arg).  He won the G3 Matt Wynn here in June, his first back off Show in the Kentucky Derby.  I'm not a big fan of first race back off Breeders' Cup efforts but I like the horse alot, he likes this track and he's 9 of 9 in the money on fast dirt.



Hopportunity is no stranger to the race and he's coming in off an outclassed Breeders' Cup Classic. I think you have to respect Baffert bringing him here as well as his Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 win in early October.  He'll be coming late, which the Belmont stretch played well to his strength,  and he should have enough speed in front of him to make a late move.



Shaman Ghost, the Ontario bred 4 YO, has been on the shelf since winning at 9-1 in The Woodward G1. first start at CD, 4 wins in 8 starts on fast dirt, 1 win at the distance in 1 try, 6 wins in 12 lifetime starts.



Do I have last year's winner, Effinex, too low? he came off a stalking trip in last year's edition and if he's in that spot again this year of course he'll be dangerous. I'm covering him in multiple spots.



The last horse I'm going to consider is a bit of a wildcard, Roger Attfield's Are You Kidding Me.  No wins in two dirt starts, winless in only attempt at CD, the modestly bred 6 YO has a combined 29 turf and fake dirt starts, mostly at Woodbine, and he is running very well but this seems like a very odd placing for him.  I like him showing up in the ticket, as I suspect he will be on the lead and dropping like a stone near the wire.  Here he is at Churchill Downs running a flat effort in the Stephen Foster Handicap.



So what to do with all this? First of all, I love the big field of handicap division warriors.  This race would be an example of what I describe to people as to why I love horse racing.  I love the stories, I love seeing a 44 start 6 YO still doing what he does.  Everyone loves the triple crown races, but this level of Grade 1 action is what does it for me.  I'm tossing at my own peril Breaking Lucky, Mr. Z, Prayers for Relief and Hawaakom.  Murphy's Law: One of them will screw us up.

I'm really torn, and while a horse racing fan can be torn, a bettor cannot be.  My base bet (below) isn't even worth me pricing out as I'm never going to make such an investment in a wide open race.

After mulling about a $69 bet $1 Super and a $50 bet $2 Exacta I settled on $1 Tri bet for $20 which I would be OK with taking to $2/$40.  The bet forces me to single Noble Bird and put the rest of my survivor pool under him.  Regardless of the horse I single, the bet construction will be what I settle on.  What do I mean by that?  I'm not sold on Noble Bird and I'm not sure if he's going to get smaller or bigger than 4-1, so if Gun Runner down  to 8-1, perhaps I flip flop Noble Bird and Gun Runner.

Watch the tote and only invest what you are prepared to lose.  My exotic hit rate on Tri's has been hovering around 25% but my IRR is positive, albeit slightly.  That's over many years.  I have had stretches where it is mind numbing horrible and also savant like fantastic. Welcome to horse racing!

To bet or not to bet?  When you sit down with a card, certain races will pop out to you, after you have invested the time and effort to develop the craft, that are much easier marks than this race.  As a horse player, why bet a hard race when you can take advantage of a no brainer race on the same card or a different track.  Don't fall into the trap of betting every race but if you handicap, take the time to build out your bets, review what coulda shoulda woulda when its over, and be honest with yourself.

Have fun with this friends.  Happy Turk(ey) Day.  Turk(s) out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

Lea winning the Commonwealth G3- Reed Palmer Photography

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to start by thanking the good folks at The Thorofan for allowing this hack internet handicapper to write for the Handicapper's Corner this weekend for the Donn Handicap, a Grade 1, $500,000 purse race that for me, and most handicappers, is the first truly special race of the new race season for colts, fillies, horses and mares  4 years old and up.

In a ten horse field you might be able to make a case for six of the horses here to win the race, some of them at very good odds of 6-1 or greater.  I'm thinking the top spot will be pretty chalky, but that doesn't mean the exotic bets can't have some value.  Let's build a handicap and then figure out a bet structure.

This is always a challenging time of the year as a handicapper as its sometimes hard to gauge which of the runners coming off of breaks or making their second race off a break will be ready.  I lean heavy on the work tab and recent race form to guide me.

Let's watch a couple of recent races at Gulfstream Park, the G3 Hal's Hope and the Sunshine Millions Classic (and lets use that term Classic in this case loosely) to get a feel for some of the key runners, as well as the Clark Handicap, the last good Grade 1 race for the handicap division held the day after Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs.

Hal's Hope G3 GP 1 Mile





Sunshine Millions Classic $250K GP 1 1/8



Clark Handicap G1 CD 1 1/8



Glean from these what you like.  I like to evaluate form, trip, compete level in the stretch, and strength of field.



I like Lea quite a bit and the home bred came off the injured reserve looking very sharp with one burst run to take the Hal's Hope in early January. Trainer Mott's is 34% on the second start off a long break and 30% won last start.  7 wins in 13 starts, 3 for 3 at GP and 3 for 3 on fast dirt.  I think I may single.

I'm leaning towards East Hall for Place which would bring real value to bet.  Trainer Kaplan's runner wasn't exactly driving for Place in Sunshine Millions Classic and barely held off Catholic Cowboy and lost to an inferior horse. The four year old seems to be improving although he is winless in three starts at the distance, 13 of 20 in the money and $772,000 in winnings for the 4 YO gelding. Feast or famine, he could easily finish outside top four.

A more likely horse is one of three Trainer Pletcher entries, Constitution, last year's Florida Derby winner.  Pletcher has been bringing him back easily since his return to running after injury in the Florida Derby took him off the Triple Crown trail.  I'd like to see him do a bit more but I do like the bullet at 5f on January 26th but I still need to see something before I swoon.

Commissioner is a colt who looks the part yet doesn't have great results and hasn't won in 13 months, a 75K Optional Claimer at this distance on this track.  Johnny V is up for Pletcher, a combo that wins 30% of the time at GP.  Not sold yet on him either.

Protonico, Pletcher's third entry, seems like the sleeper to me and may be worth a win bet flyer.  Training regularly since the Clark H., he has flashed lots of potential.

Sloane Avenue is a wildcard colt and the 4 YO Candy Ride (Arg) from Apt (AP Indy) has the bloodlines to be something, even though that something is hard to figure out.  Two low level Kempton wins at one mile in RH direction and he does have a LH win as well.  Would be a shocker for big value.

I'm tossing Elnaawi and Prayers for Relief at my own peril but you can't cover everyone. I'm not accusing anyone of anything, but I would like to see the journeyman Prayers for Relief retired soon. It's been a looooooooonnnnnggggg time since he won and at 36 starts and nearly $2.0 MM of earnings I think he deserves a pension.  I'm not taking Catholic Cowboy or Blue Note very seriously.

So what to do with all this?

I'm leaning towards a simple Trifecta with Lea singled on top and quite a bit of coverage just below:

 $2 Trifecta:  4 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 1-2-3 5-7-9-10 =$36 bet

$2 Super Hi 5:  4 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 2-3-7-8 OVER 2-3-5-7-8-10= $120 bet

I'm not sure what I'm going to do yet but with the base handicap done, I can use the toteboard as well as observations from the paddock and post parade to finalize my bet.

Have fun with this friends!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Clark Handicap G1 at Churchill Downs

Departing (Photo by Reed Palmer Photography)

The Clark Handicap is a post Thanksgiving tradition for me like many racing fans.  It's a Grade 1, usually including some of the handicap divisions greats, vying for a last big win, possibly in an attempt to leaving a lasting impression with Eclipse Award voters.  This years, edition, not so much.  It might even be subtitled " Former Derby Darlings trying to get back to their winning ways"  as Hopportunity and Constitution were two of the biggest names in racing in February, but oh what a difference 9 months can make.  It may not be the handicap division all star game that I'd prefer, but in the horse racing game these days, you get what you get.

The track should be fast, even if the temperature a bit brisk.

Lets get after this!



I'm looking for the breakout performance that never seemed to happen this year for Departing.  Lost by a neck last time out to Pick of the Litter at KEE.  It was right there for him and he lost.



Distance isn't an issue for Departing; 3 of 3 in the money at CD, 4 of 5 in the money in 2014, 7 of 9 in the money at the distance, and a bullet 11/13 at 4f in :48 flat.

The next two are a coin toss for me, they could both win, they could both finish out of the money, I have no real notion how they will respond. Of the two, I like Hopportunity a bit better. 2nd race off the long layoff, something Baffert hits on 27% of the time.  Loved his Rebel, will see what he's got.  It means nothing today, but let's watch and remember this year's trail runners.



While we are on the nostalgia trail (which means NOTHING in racing for current form), let's look at the dream trip Constitution had in the Florida Derby.



The 3 YO Tapit would have been retired in the past, and the racing game needs more stars to come back and run, so it would be a boon to the sport to see runners like Constitution and Hopportunity find their second acts.

Today, I'm just thinking of their Class.  In a Class review, these two are near the top of the pack.  Current Form, I'm not sure.  As I said, either could win, both could finish far up the track.  I'm going to cover both and see what happens.

The next four runners I have slotted will make or break my betting I reckon, and the rest of the field I've tossed.

Easter Gift, a five year old Hard Spun (is that possible?  Time goes by too quickly!) is 0 of 2 at CD, 1 of 5 at the distance, a bit slow.

Pick of the Litter is capable of Show to Fourth, I don't think the win.  4 wins in 7 runs at the distance, 4 of 5 in the money at CD but only one win in 5 CD dirt starts.  Comes in off G2 Fayette that's posted above.

Knights Nation, 4 YO gelding, has 13 of his 18 starts on Turf and owns 1 dirt win.  Slow, but will be coming late.

Prontonico, 3 YO Giant's Causeway, I don't know what to make of.  First trip to CD. Won G3 Discovery last time out in slop.  I'm not sure I put much on that. 3 of 6 on fast dirt.  Classier than rest.



So what am I going to do with this?  The Trifecta I assembled I'm not thrilled with thinking about what the tote board odds may look like:

$2 Tri:  4-1-7 OVER 4-1-7 OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6= $56

I'll have to watch the tote board but chances are My Win and Place horse will be 1-2 on the tote board.  A $56 investment would most likely provide a negative return.

I may want to play with some combinations like this:

$2 Tri:   4 OVER 9 (value) OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6 =$10  another alternative may be 4 OVER 9 OVER 6 for $2 and not loose any sleep over it.

In this bet I single Departing (eh), single a Place horse (perhaps one of the late hard runners) and then drop in 5 into Show spot.

Again, I'll be watching the tote board to get a feel for what other bettors think before I decide on the investment.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade 1 at Churchill Downs

It doesn't get much more American than Stephen Foster:  Born on July 4, 1826, the composer of such American music classics as Camptown Races, Oh Susana!, My Old Kentucky Home are still songs that generations of kids sang in music class and learned to play on instruments.  Another great American institution, The Thorofan, invested in the growth of the American horse racing fan base, has again asked this bald idiot handicapper to opine on the races.  It's not a Pink, Blue, or Yellow sheet but its probably just as accurate.  Ignore as you will!

My success rate, measured as Return on Investment, is not very good with my Handicapper Corner's handicaps.  It doesn't help that I'm typically making Superfecta and Super High Five bet recommendations, but still, the handicapping has been dull and not very good.  In self analysis mode I think for some handicaps I was too conservative, afraid to look dumb.  In others I was wildly aggressive, on the edge of reckless.  I've learned that to be a  successful bettor I need to  approach my handicapping with consistency: I build my base handicap, regardless of value, and if I choose to take some risk on the bet structure for value at least I am doing it with eyes wide open.  

The first thing I noticed when I reviewed the Past Performances is how many of the runners you could make a legitimate win bet on: Revolutionary, Moonshine Mullin, Will Take Charge, Departing, Golden Ticket and Prayer for Relief could all hit the wire first.  With the way Long River, a 15-1 Morning Line sleeper, is training, that's seven of nine that could be in the winners circle. 

The weather should be good. The track should be listed as Fast.

Let's get after this!



I have Departing in the top spot.  It's the four year old geldings  2nd off a 180 day layoff, he's 3 of 5 at the distance, 1 of 1 at CD and 7 wins in 10 starts on fast dirt.  Trainer Stall and Albarado, up, clip along at 31% win  rate.  He's been training very sharply at CD.  I doubt I single him but I like his chances to provide value from my chalk spot.  Look for him to come off the pace.

I have late running Revolutionary in the next group back;  He came late for Show in last year's Kentucky Derby and he comes in off a Pimlico Special Grade 3 win.

Prayer for Relief has no top three finishes in three starts at CD.  Another off the pace style runner, the 6 YO sizzled in morning work across this track a week ago.  4 wins in 13 starts at the distance, 6 wins in 20 starts over fast dirt, he ran terribly in  2013 Clarke Handicap here.

The Alysheba, Grade 2, run at CD in May was an interesting race.




Moonshine Mullin should provide much of today's pace.   Will Take Charge will try and forget his non fire in the Alysheba.  Stevens is up again for Trainer Lukas and most likely is the one to beat and the expected post time chalk.  I'm a biog fan of Will Take Charge but I need to see him fire in his four year old season and I'll bet against the money on him.

Golden Ticket and Long River are collectively no wins in six starts at this distance.  Long River has been working very sharply at Saratoga and ran very well on the inner dirt at Aqueduct this past winter.

So what to do with this?  I think I'll take a position similar to my base handicap, with a horse like Departing on top and a series of Exacta Bets with value underneath like Golden Ticket and Long River.  To be decisive I'll go with 6 OVER 3-7-8. Three $10 Bets may interest me.

Whatever you do, have some fun and develop your own handicap and bet responsively.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Pimlico Special Grade 3

Welcome friends to The Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, I am The Turk, and along with my 14 year old son, The Little Turk, we handicap and blog as many stakes races as we can, offering our handicaps at their fair market value, and our betting advice for what it's worth as well.

The Little Turk has been to many a Grade 1 race in his young life, and the picture to the left was taken by him last year when we arrived on Black Eyed Susan day at Pimlico.  It was a cold and fairly miserable day last year and this year doesn't seem much better.  The weather will be atrocious tomorrow, and while it may stop raining by race time, the track should be listed as wet.

This should be a more prestigious race than it is. A distance increase and more purse money this year doesn't hurt, and the field, if not cream of the crop, is at least fairly well level.  The wet track should be a bit of an equalizer and the wild card.

My initial thoughts of the past performances:

• 5 horses with 400 plus Wet Tomlinson Numbers
• Zero wins at the distance (with Exception of Korean Major King)
• Zero Pimlico wins and only one start (Major King again)
• 9 horse field, one toss (Major King), 5 legitimate winners (2,3,5,6,8)
• betting options galore: 10 cent super, super hi five, Preakness/Pimlico Special Double and Pimlico Special/Dixie/Preakness Pick 3

Let's start off looking at some last race video with the key players.

Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2 Fast Dirt 1 1/8 Miles (Carve, Revolutionary, Prayers for Relief, Golden Lad)



Charlestown Classic Grade 2 Fast Dirt 1 1/8 Miles (Moreno)




Without a Will Take Charge or a Game On Dude, there are some good efforts on display in those videos.



I'm not sure what type of betting option I'm going to choose for this race. I haven't watched any Pimlico races this week, so I'll want to watch closely and see how the track is playing wet and note any particular lane biases, if any.

I like Revolutionary to have a better than 2-1 chance to win;  Pletcher's trainee ran hard at Will Take Charge after being cut off in traffic in the stretch last time out.  Training consistently and should handle the track and the distance just fine.  The class of the race.

In my base handicap he's much lower, but I'm leaning towards some value in the Place spot and I'm thinking Bourbon Courage from the outside will come late.  Hasn't won since 2012 but 10 Place and Shows in 17 starts for the 5 YO Lion Heart horse.  It's a reach but I like the value.  You could easily insert Prayers for Relief into this slot too if you are value hunting and are OK with risk for reward.

In my mind there is a blanket over Moreno, Cat Burglar and Carve.  I don't see much to differentiate them from each other.  Cat Burglar is the least accomplished here, coming in off of Optional Claimers 62K and 40K affairs.  Baffert is shipping him in for a reason and he places Napravnik up.  Baffert and Rosie win 53% of the time together over a 15 race sample size.  Moreno is almost always in it and has had some very good efforts over the past year. He'll be top 5 without question and I think top three.  Carve is a 4 YO gelded son of First Samurai, trained by Brian Cox who places Castanon up, with the two of them 41% winners together over 29 races.

I'm leaning towards Golden Lad and Valid dropping like stones after setting the pace and I'm shading against Prayers for Relief too but for no particular reason except you can't cover them all.

I'm not sure I feel that strongly about my handicap to bet serious money.  Something simple like a five horse superfecta box with the 6-9-3-2-5, ten cent variety, will cost you $12.  I  may be more daring tomorrow after I see how the track plays and what the scratches and changes are.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Oaklawn Handicap and the Arkansas Derby

Will Take Charge (Photo Courtesy of Oaklawn Park)

The Derby Trail! One of the most exciting and agonizing things I do as a handicapper is try to sort out young horses without much of a history. I found a secret years ago that if I ignore most of what is written about the runners and just focus on the fundamentals I see on video and past performances and just play em' as I see em'. Most of the time I think I'm seeing them with dirt covered goggles. Today's Oaklawn Handicap is where I traditionally find solace, with older horses, with more established records. I find sanity on the paper, sense of things, order in the universe. I said usually. The Oaklawn Handicap is a bit of a mystery to me, with a heavy stench of chalk and so-so betting prospects. Anyways, I won't get too far ahead of myself, I'll build the base handicap and see what my betting strategy will look like.

Let's get it on!




The weather looks like it will be dry.  You can find the scratches and changes here.

A seven horse field enters the gate in the Oaklawn Handicap. My first two passes tell me there is only one true toss out, the five year old gelded son of Political Force, Right to Vote.

Will Take Charge is very, very hard to ignore. 7 straight 100+ Beyers, a :35 and change 3F work bullet 4 days ago, 10 of 14 in the money on fast dirt, 4 of 4 in the money at the distance, 2 wins in 3 starts at OP. Saez, battery free, is Up for Trainer Lukas.

If Will Take Charge can be bettered, I'm backing Golden Lad. He's got a nice off the pace run style and has Gary Stevens up today, a very capable tactical pilot. The 4 YO Medaglia d' Oro son is undefeated in his 4th season, with a win at both Gulfstream and Oaklawn.

Revolutionary is Pletcher's main threat here but I see him taking a back seat in this one to Golden Lad. Comes in off a very flat Donn Handicap in February. Working regular if not that dynamically.  I like both Carve and Moreno to best the Louisiana Derby winner.

Carve is a very deep closer.  He'll be coming at the wire, not going, and that should put him in the top four.  Moreno is an interesting runner: First start at OP, no wins at distance, only 1 win in 10 fast dirt starts, 2 wins in 15 starts.  That said, he strung 4 straight 100+ Beyers together last season before going to the farm after a dud Breeders' Cup Classic.

Prayers For Relief, a recent transfer out of Asmussen's barn, is a hard knocking 6 YO who could hit the exotics and I'm leaning towards putting him outside the circle of trust today.

I'm not sure if I have a betting interest in this race;  I'll be watching the tote to see what the bettors think of Golden Lad, who I'd like at 6-1 or better.  I'm not sure this race is worth an exotic bet investment.

I can't say I'm excited about betting the Arkansas Derby either.  I hate to do it, but Bayern seems to be the best, although I hate rewarding a lightly race colt with chalk.  I love the consistent work since the foot bruise.
 
Tapiture and Strong Mandate will both attract lots of betting cash. Tapiture looks very strong , and he won the Southwest and dueled gamely to Hoppertunity to Place in the Rebel.  I've liked Conquest Titan, Mark Casse's Birdstone runner all winter, but he needs to put up today or shutdown and head to the Belmont.

I think I'm a horse racing fan for these races and not a race track investment specialist.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park

With the end of traditional summer nearing, comes the close to the Saratoga and Del Mar meets, and a feeling that the inevitable winter is coming. Fall racing has its charms: Belmont, Santa Anita, Woodbine, Presque Isle is where I'll be playing and visiting. I've got my mind on PID Masters Day next Saturday, The Woodbine Mile day in two weeks, Jockey Gold Cup Day at Belmont the last Saturday in September and then a Goodwood Day visit to Santa Anita (or whatever name they call the Goodwood now!) That's a pretty good list of racing and it fits my goal of skipping this year's Breeders' Cup and instead seeing some different tracks on their big Fall days. Why am I skipping the Breeders' Cup? No deep seated reason other than I just don't feel like traveling for four days across country any more than my day job makes me do and just as importantly, the lack of stars that doesn't inspire me to make a trip of that size. By the way, keep Paynter in your prayers.

As a race fan, do you look forward to certain days at the track? As a fan I love them, but as a handicapper I've become very reliant on the tools and the space that I have at my disposal in my home. I'm fighting very hard the real urge to withdraw even further from the social interaction of the track and stay full time in my solitary handicapping kitchen haven. I don't have an answer for this, its more of a philosophical dilemma than anything else. The hard core race community are a social bunch, I don't want to be left behind.

Anyhow, my "non blogged" handicapping has been good, not great. My blogged handicapping has ranged from poor to mediocre. As always, I approach my handicapping with the same structured methods I've bored my meager readers with for nearly four years. I know my methods and rules, non exotic, no sexy angles, work. I'm a layer handicapper. I identify the layers that horses will run within and I slot the field accordingly. I should say my handicapping has been average but my bet construction has been below average. Two different sides of the coin. I've had decent handicaps go for waste when I built lousy bets. Often I can correct this by pulling money off the table and making all bets for a few weeks theoretical. My thought process is its easier to work through bet construction bumps in the road when there isn't real skin in the game. Do you take the long view? I like to think that I do. I'd rather take a chance of not cashing tickets for a few weeks in order to correct a bad habit or two. As a 'capper for life, I can live without cashing this weekend if it means I'm primed for a long hot streak. When you can't win to save your life, stop. It's that simple.

I choose today's Washington Park Handicap for no reason other than the field interested me: Geldings Mister Marti Gras and Workin for Hops are Turk favorites and I'm curious to see Prayers for Relief, placed here my Steve Assmussen who doesn't ship into AP often, and Pool Play, the $36.6-1 winner of the 2011 Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap. It's not complicated, I'm a horse fan, I wanted to play these horses.

Maybe I say this more when I'm cold, but this is a tough field. There are easier marks on the race card today but we'll just see what we can do with this, no worries.

Let's get after it!



The Turk has set a tentative chalk, the 5 YO gelded son of City Zip, Workin for Hops. Trainer Stidham is winning 21% of his turf/syth switches and he's a 4 of 5 winner at AP when placing Robbie Albarado up. 3 of 3 in the money at AP but winless in four tries in 2012. I like the sharp work and the price should be attractive, perhaps 3rd or 4th on the tote board. DQ'd to third here last year, he returns to meet his foe from that day, Mister Marti Gras.

Chris Block wins 31% of his turf to synth switches, and he tries to get Mister Marti Gras into the win column in his sixth race of 2012. I suspect he will be the betting favorite at post time and there is plenty to like: 3 of 3 in the money on fake dirt and a win here last year in this very spot. A competitive graded stakes runner, modestly bred but an honest runner who's 15 of 25 in the money lifetime. I will take a stand against the win for pricing reasons, but in base handicap terms I find him equal or better to the best here.

I like the late running (and big priced) Hattaash to crash the top three party; Two nice N2X runs at this track, 7 of 8 in the money at AP, Rosie Homeister is up for infrequent graded stake contestant, Trainer Charles Bettis.

Which leaves a big name and a talent to account for: Prayers for Relief is the fields youngster and the only millionare. No wins in 7 tries in 2012, all Grade 1 and Grade 2 except his last try, a Remington Park loss by a nose to Alternation. Asmussen doesn't come to AP often so I'm sure he picked this spot for the former California shipper who did well coming East for real dirt racin'. Could go off at 1 to 1 odds and I'm just not that interested. From a base handicap perspective I should place him in the top three but I'm going to take a chance (gambling after all) that he is no better than Show.

Pool Play is making AP debut today as well, winless in 8 starts on Turf, 14 of 21 in the money on fake stuff, mostly Woodbine's. I may be wrong with him, but the 7 YO doesn't seem right since his 13 month break when he recovered from injury and then found the stallion market a bit, ummm, flaccid.

That's a nice field; I'm tossing the 1 and 2 horses and taking a stand against the expected chalk Prayers for Reliefas well as Pool Play and I'm expecting a late run to put Hattaash to hit the ticket with a long price in tow. Everyone else is in the layer.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic-Part 2

Last week we took an initial look at the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders, and now that we have a bit more information as to who may be in the starting gate it seems like the right time to circle back. As to not make you go back to hunt for Part 1, I'll tack it on the end or you can get to it from here.

We've got 12 athletes to study. I've already determined that I am hunting for the Super Hi Five and the Superfecta in this race so my layer handicapping approach will integrate my betting strategy as well. You just can't box your way to Super Hi Five success, well you can, but it would be pricey; Taking the top 7 and boxing them on a $1 bet would cost you $2,520. Now, this Super High Five, unless its wildly chalky, should pay more than double that and if it paid 10-20 times more than that i wouldn't be surprised. That said, boxing is out for The Turk, I want this win badly but I also want it old school cool too, as few combinations as I can. I'll employ a matrix betting structure. I could for example use 8 horses with 4 over 4 Over 5 Over 5 Over 5 for $562. We got options, let's not sweat that yet!

Await the Dawn is a Kentucky bred 4 year old son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Aidan O'Brien, wearing the silks of Tabor and Magnier, the silks I see when I close my eyes and think of Rags to Riches.

No dirt racing in his past and no races at the classic distance but he has run very well going left. Here he is going right in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2), 1 1/2 Miles over soft turf. In this article, O'Brien makes no bones about his desire for a Breeders' Cup Classic win.



Drosselmeyer is a four year old son of Distorted Humor, trained by Bill Mott. He posted a career best 104 Beyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over the slop in October, looked out of place in the 12 panel Sword Dancer before that over grass, and was a beaten chalk at 12 panels over the dirt in Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont, the track of his greatest victory. Actually since winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 he's only won one race, the 60K One Count at the classic distance at Belmont in May of this year.

Working well at Churchill Downs this week.

2nd in Jockey Club Gold Cup



Gio Ponti is cross entered here as well as the Mile. No Dirt efforts and no wins at this distance. 1 win in five starts in 2011.

Headache is a Michael Maker trainee that comes in off a Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) win at 1 1/4 miles over fast dirt. 14 of 18 in the money over fast dirt with 8 wins and 3 of 3 in the money at 10 furlongs with 1 win. The five year old son of Tapit comes in sharp.

Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) 8 October 2011



Working in traffic in the Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1) 6 August 2011



Winning Cornhusker Handicap (G3) 25 June 2011



Prayers for Relief is a 3 YO Zayat Stables runner trained by Bob Baffert. 3 wins in 4 fast dirt starts and 4 of 4 in the money, with no attempts at the distance and a lifetime best 98 Beyer. Winner of Iowa Derby (G3), West Virginia Derby (G2), The Super Derby (G2)and a beaten chalk in the Oklahoma Derby 400K. Put up a bullet :46 3/5ths for 4f at SA this past week.

The Super Derby (G2)



The Oklahoma Derby, Bejarano had the rail at the top of the stretch, swung him outside and got up for show.



Rattlesnake Bridge is another three year old son of Tapit trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Comes in off Pennsylvania Derby (G2), a flattened out run and a well beaten Show to To Honor and Serve and Ruler on Ice.



Rattlesnake Bridge is 5 of 5 in the money on fast dirt with 2 wins and has only tried the classic distance once.

Both Ruler on Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge ran the Travers (G1) as well, losing to Stay Thirsty.



Ruler on Ice has only run the Classic Distance once, has only one win in seven tries over fast dirt but did pull off a shocking Belmont Stakes (G1) win at 24.75-1 odds.

Ice Box won the Florida Derby (G1)in March 2010, was Place to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby and has done awfully little since then, but he ran pretty darn good at Churchill Downs last year at this distance, we shouldn't forget that, Nick Zito hasn't.

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon. And it's unfortunate, but Tiznow won't be joining us in Louisville.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



I'd be remiss to not say congratulations to The Little Turk. After six years of practicing two and three times a week he earned his Black Belt in Bushido Kai. Way to Go Little Buddy, we are all proud of our grifter in training.



Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday September 10, 2011; The Grade 2 Grab Bag of the Super Derby and Masters

Who else still looks up expecting to see them? Ten years later and it has yet to mentally compute that they are just gone, these iconic towers that captured in my imagination what the big city was like.

I've stood in the Pentagon, at the very place where the plane struck. I've stood at the edge of ground zero and looked into the pit, remembering the days I visited the building when it was a vibrant and bustling office city.

If you are reading a horse racing blog, chances are you are old enough to have your own 9/11 story. I have mine and I no longer think about the images of the buildings being stuck or falling, I now only think about the names and faces of some of the dead, men and women of a similar age to me, with children, veterans, police and fire fighters. That's all the memory links within my mind lead me to.

Life has gone on for the rest of us, damaged but alive, but for the victims of 9/11, they are locked in time, hopefully resting in peace.

God Bless the United States of America.



I assembled two very simple bets for no reason other than I had plans to see the University of Buffalo home football opener with Little Turk and his buddy, and I had to place the bets and go.

A Trifecta and Superfecta were constructed using my base handicaps. The day was made positive by the Trifecta win in the Presque Isle Downs Masters and the Superfecta win in the Super Derby.

In the hits category I forwardly placed Populist Politics and Awesome Bet in the Super Derby, the 6th and 7th betting public choices, and I had Musical Romance covered in the Masters. I'm looking for misses and i can't really say I blew anything, but that is the fine line of handicapping and betting, one change in position is the difference. I would have never included $46.20 Promised Mandate in my PID Super. I never expected Ariana D. to be so backed, I viewed her as value. Trubs and Meistersinger didn't fire as well as hoped.

Good sized fields with competition up and down the starting gate is much more preferable to me than a five horse Grade I. Good stuff indeed.

Remember the dead, and the loved ones they left behind. Remember the military, the only segment of the American public at war and living as being at war daily.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: 10 September 2011; The Grade 2 Racing Grab Bag- PID Masters and Super Derby

One of my favorite things about horse racing is the selection; You would think the weekend after the prestigious racing meets at Saratoga and Del Mar close that there wouldn't be anything that could interest you: How wrong you would be. I'm a horse racing fan first, handicapper and degenerate bettor second. Sure I love Grade One racing on the biggest stages, on national TV, but there is some good stuff out there almost every weekend of the year, and that's what I am, a weekend horse fella.

I debated what I wanted to handicap today and that debate always starts at the stakes schedule. I had alot of options but I settled on handicapping two tracks I seldom work, Louisiana Downs and Presque Isle Downs. Why? Big fields and the PP's just looked fun. I'm easy (relax ladies, I'm not available).

There were some nice turf events at Belmont, Kentucky Downs and Woodbine, and some nice fake dirt events at Arlington, but I printed The Super Derby Grade 2 at LaD and The Masters Grade 2 at PID and I got the red gel pen out and got engaged. No excuses if I don't have fun, I picked my pleasure.

I received my Breeders' Cup purple 2011 Breeders' Cup ball cap in the mail yesterday.

I am such a geek and I'm completely unapologetic about it. I am so excited about the Breeders' Cup this year and I look forward to meeting more of the great folks I've had the pleasure of getting to know through Facebook, Twitter, and the various racing blogs. It's a nice community of fans in horse racing, eclectic to say the least. One of the things I like about horse racing is the passion of, and the acceptance that women receive as turf writers, bloggers, fans and handicappers. What other non female related sport is that accepting? All good stuff!

Anyway, lets get after this!



I've had some intense handicapping sessions over the past few weeks. They have been lucrative to me but also draining. In the past I may have taken a handicappers holiday and put the red pen down for a weekend, but I've decided this year to handicap every week but only ramp up the effort (and the cash I'm willing to lay down) three or four more times between now and Breeders' cup weekend. My goal is to stay sharp and stay engaged with my PP reading skills.

I learned to handicap in an era before You Tube and Google; I use to handicap whole cards on the night shift of my job (I don't advocate this behavior generally, it was just a 12 hour shift and not much to do). I did not trip handicapping and seldom got any feedback on the races that I handicapped except the WPS results in the next days paper. I feel pretty good just looking at the PPs and nothing much else but the funny thing is, no matter how long I've been doing it, if I don't do it regularly I get sloppy. I'll take a bit of a break in November after the Breeders' Cup but for right now, I'm going to keep workin' it.

I checked the weather at Louisiana Downs. Hot but dry. I'm not much worried about the fake dirt track in Erie, PA, about 90 minutes south of Turk.

Lets start with the Super Derby: Prayer for Relief, the Baffert trainee for Zayat Stables and two time graded stakes winner, appears to be a heavy duty chalk in this spot; two late turns of foot on dirt at 8+ furlongs, two Derby wins in West Virgina and Iowa, Baffert 25% off a 30-60 day break, 25% winning last starts, 33% on dirt. Heavy duty expect 6-5, 5-6 something not worth betting; Let's bet against him!

I'm putting Trubs on top; The Al Stall runner is 2 of 2 at LaD, has 4 wins on fast dirt and is very game. Stall has Sellers up and they combine for 32% wins. Stall has stats that stand up to Baffert: 28% off 45-180 day break, 28% off 30 to 60 day break, 33%winners of last start, 32% graded stakes.

Don't want to throw caution to the wind like the ol' Turk? There will be some legitimate prices that should be considered. Alternation with R. Dominguez up, is a strong runner with 4 wins on fast dirt and 1 win at the distance. The Distorted Humor son is off to a fresh start after abandoning Triple Crown dreams and winning the Grade 2 Peter Pan before coming up a bit flat in the Jim Dandy.

10 cent Super's and fifty cent Tri's are on the menu; I like some exotic possibility here with the value coming if Prayers for Rain falters, even if just to Place.

At Presque Isle I'm hunting for value too and I've settled on Ariana D: 16 of 20 in the money on fake dirt, winless in 2011 with 4 Place finishes and I love the running lines, " gamely...all out inside....detirminedly...up late driving". Desormeaux is up, not exactly my favorite rider but a big fish in this pond. Sweet Lorena is a horse for the course but may not be classy enough to win on a track she generally owns: 15 of 15 in the money at PID, 16 of 18 in the money on fake stuff for the 7 YO NY State bred mare from Langfuhr. Beat the Blues should only be ignored at your own peril.

I'm layer handicapping both races. I will be building exotics and who exactly wins is a bit moot and only matters to drive the value of the bet higher or lower. A nice betting menu is available for the PID Masters;$2 WPS, $2 Exactas, fifty cent Tri's and ten cent Super's.

I'm going to sit back and have a bit of fun with these nice sized fields and beatable chalks (at least I hope).

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 25, 2011: The Cornhusker Handicap Day Late Pick Four at Prairie Meadows

I'm not sure about you race fans, but I enjoyed the action at Prairie Meadows this past weekend, especially Saturday night. As predicted, there were money magnets in the races, as both the Iowa Oaks and the Iowa Derby had a 1 to 2 horse taking heavy action and both horses, Daisy Devine and Astrology, finished out of the money. You hard core types know what that means, cha-chang!

I am kicking myself a bit: If you would have bet my pick 4 as I laid out Saturday morning exactly as I had it, you would have spent $180 and returned $1556.50. I went cheap in Race 10, the $12,500 Maiden Claimer and covered only three horses instead of five. These races are hard to predict and I should have just covered what I handicapped, but The Turk is human and I do leave money on the table from time to time. No matter how experienced or good you think you are, you will make mistakes, if that's even the right term. I was comfortable with a $180 Pick Four bet but I hate to over-cover and I out-thought myself. I try not to dwell on the mistakes and I'll move along.




The Iowa Oaks


The Iowa Derby



The Cornhusker Handicap



I had a thought tonight: The sport is marketed constantly to a wide public audience with mixed results. A big problem is so few sports reporters give a hoot about racing. It's time the sport "targets" key reporters and columnists at major old media news organizations and sponsors trips to the track. The track is the drug, the track is what sells itself. The more columnists and radio talk show hosts that talk up their love of the sport, the more it will sink into the mainstream again.

Who loves football wildcard games on Saturday Nights? Prairie Meadows, with the big races going off between 9-10 PM Eastern time, could have been huge had it been marketed by a organization that had racing's best interests in mind, not just the interest of a big track. Just sayin'....

Turk Out!