The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk horse racing and handicapping blog. I am the Turk, and my almost 23 year old son is the Little Turk. Little Turk is preoccupied with life these days, as he is studying to be a chiropractor. I miss the days with him at the track, going down to the paddock, coming up with our bets, and then standing along the rail rooting them home. You always think there will be more time, more outings, but life moves at its own pace. I miss Little Turk, but he's a young man now, with his own life. Like many of our young horse players, he's an absolute fantasy football junkie, and the lessons he's learned in horse betting I see him applying well in other things. It's good to know a little degenerate horse player could impart the lessons of the track on the youth!
Anyways, Gulfstream Park. The turf track went through significant improvement to make it a premier grass field, and the early reviews are positive. My favorite turf track in the world, Arlington Park, being no more, I hope to see more tracks install lush and thick turf courses to lure the top Europeans over. I can dream.
I'm just getting my handicapping memory muscles working again, but this time of the year your turf selections are limited. While that changes in January, beggars can't be choosers and today's nomination, mostly by default, is The Via Borghese, a $100K for Fillies and Mares 3 and Up.
Let's get after it!
You can find the updated Track Info and Tote at the Gulfstream Park website and this link will take you to it directly. The weather appears to be mostly dry until it gets closer to post time. I handicapped assuming Fast Turf.
As I like to tell people, my best advice for handicappers is to handicap without morning lines or reading any news reports about the race before the handicap. Leave bias at the door is my philosophy. I look at the Morning Line after I'm done handicapping to help me identify any over or underlays and gage my view of the race against a track insider. It's a small sample size, but it gives me a sanity check. Quite frankly, this race seems to be handicapped by me and the track pretty similarly.
Pletcher's Beside Herself gets top look at the win spot. Blinkers off is my only concern. Training well, 3 Turf Wins in 10 starts, 2 of 3 in the money at GP. Class, Connections, all good.
I like Flying Fortress and Viburnum for the best looks at Place. Flying Fortress has 3 turf wins in 6 starts and drops in class and distance thus time out. First time back since claim. Veteran Viburnum goes in 20th start today. Training well since September, a good late turn of foot, 3 of 4 in the money at GP, 3 wins in 18 Turf starts but 8 Place/Shows.
I prefer Starship Mallomar more than Lisheen, but it's not a strong opinion either way. Clearly Lisheen is in the better barn and wins a class battle, but on track little separates these two.
My base handicap will be to a $2 Exacta, betting against Beside Herself for the win: 4-7-5 OVER 4-7-5-1 $2 Bet for $18. It may be too expensive to carry 4 horses in the place spot so I'll think that through a bit more.
Last week we took an initial look at the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders, and now that we have a bit more information as to who may be in the starting gate it seems like the right time to circle back. As to not make you go back to hunt for Part 1, I'll tack it on the end or you can get to it from here.
We've got 12 athletes to study. I've already determined that I am hunting for the Super Hi Five and the Superfecta in this race so my layer handicapping approach will integrate my betting strategy as well. You just can't box your way to Super Hi Five success, well you can, but it would be pricey; Taking the top 7 and boxing them on a $1 bet would cost you $2,520. Now, this Super High Five, unless its wildly chalky, should pay more than double that and if it paid 10-20 times more than that i wouldn't be surprised. That said, boxing is out for The Turk, I want this win badly but I also want it old school cool too, as few combinations as I can. I'll employ a matrix betting structure. I could for example use 8 horses with 4 over 4 Over 5 Over 5 Over 5 for $562. We got options, let's not sweat that yet!
Await the Dawn is a Kentucky bred 4 year old son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Aidan O'Brien, wearing the silks of Tabor and Magnier, the silks I see when I close my eyes and think of Rags to Riches.
No dirt racing in his past and no races at the classic distance but he has run very well going left. Here he is going right in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2), 1 1/2 Miles over soft turf. In this article, O'Brien makes no bones about his desire for a Breeders' Cup Classic win.
Drosselmeyer is a four year old son of Distorted Humor, trained by Bill Mott. He posted a career best 104 Beyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over the slop in October, looked out of place in the 12 panel Sword Dancer before that over grass, and was a beaten chalk at 12 panels over the dirt in Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont, the track of his greatest victory. Actually since winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 he's only won one race, the 60K One Count at the classic distance at Belmont in May of this year.
Gio Ponti is cross entered here as well as the Mile. No Dirt efforts and no wins at this distance. 1 win in five starts in 2011.
Headache is a Michael Maker trainee that comes in off a Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) win at 1 1/4 miles over fast dirt. 14 of 18 in the money over fast dirt with 8 wins and 3 of 3 in the money at 10 furlongs with 1 win. The five year old son of Tapit comes in sharp.
Working in traffic in the Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1) 6 August 2011
Winning Cornhusker Handicap (G3) 25 June 2011
Prayers for Relief is a 3 YO Zayat Stables runner trained by Bob Baffert. 3 wins in 4 fast dirt starts and 4 of 4 in the money, with no attempts at the distance and a lifetime best 98 Beyer. Winner of Iowa Derby (G3), West Virginia Derby (G2), The Super Derby (G2)and a beaten chalk in the Oklahoma Derby 400K. Put up a bullet :46 3/5ths for 4f at SA this past week.
The Super Derby (G2)
The Oklahoma Derby, Bejarano had the rail at the top of the stretch, swung him outside and got up for show.
Rattlesnake Bridge is another three year old son of Tapit trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Comes in off Pennsylvania Derby (G2), a flattened out run and a well beaten Show to To Honor and Serve and Ruler on Ice.
Rattlesnake Bridge is 5 of 5 in the money on fast dirt with 2 wins and has only tried the classic distance once.
Both Ruler on Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge ran the Travers (G1) as well, losing to Stay Thirsty.
Ruler on Ice has only run the Classic Distance once, has only one win in seven tries over fast dirt but did pull off a shocking Belmont Stakes (G1) win at 24.75-1 odds.
Ice Box won the Florida Derby (G1)in March 2010, was Place to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby and has done awfully little since then, but he ran pretty darn good at Churchill Downs last year at this distance, we shouldn't forget that, Nick Zito hasn't.
Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.
Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmontfor the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preaknessfor the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.
So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.
2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes
2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding
Irish Champion Stakes
15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes
Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.
Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon. And it's unfortunate, but Tiznow won't be joining us in Louisville.
2011 Met Mile
2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs
Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.
2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.
2011 Jockey Gold Cup
2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out
Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.
But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.
9f The Pensylvania Derby
This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.
Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.
8.5f The Gotham March 2011
I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.
12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes
I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.
...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)
9f The Jim Dandy
10f The Travers Stakes
I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.
Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.
The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.
The 9f Goodwood Stakes
...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap
10f Santa Anita Handicap
Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.
9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011
Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)
2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile
..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.
Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.
Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.
Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.
2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.
2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff
Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.
The 9f Beldame
The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.
While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on
I'd be remiss to not say congratulations to The Little Turk. After six years of practicing two and three times a week he earned his Black Belt in Bushido Kai. Way to Go Little Buddy, we are all proud of our grifter in training.
The older Turk gets, the more wistful Turk becomes. My post tonight marks the third anniversary of The Turk and Little Turk blog. We've welcomed 20,577 visitors through the front door in those three years or 571 people a month. The individual readers mean an awful lot to me, much more than the meager traffic number represents in the blogging world.
I've become friends with many of you, meet some of you, shared joy and frustrations with you. I've bridged the gap of impersonal computer blogging and made connections with my readers, engaging in a dialog built on the common love of the equine. Horseplayers, whales, bloggers, wannabes, rescuers, journalists: I've been blessed to meet you all and I thank you for inspiring me to write my blog when I'm tired, when work has me down, when the joy is sucked from my bones. Nothing makes me happier than talking about the races, a pleasure that is possible because of the understanding and encouragement given to me by Mrs. Turk, and my apprentice, The Little Turk.
At The Turk and the Little Turk we don't give a hoot about traffic, demographics, Alexa ratings, blog analytics, none of that. The Ol' Turk cares about the real. We define the real as family, friends, new loves, old loves. We don't discriminate, don't judge, don't preach, occasionally rant, but it's always delivered with passion and it's always straight up, no BS. Win, loose, close miss, plain suck, we just say it.
I'd like to thank Geno from Equispace . I found Equispace sort of by accident in September 2008 while I was mindlessly surfing away in O'Hare Airport. It dawned on me as I read his blog that this was something I'd like to try myself. On a whim I wrote a letter to Geno and he graciously responded. The small world that it is, Geno actually lives no more than 15 miles from my house.
In a world full of irony, Geno replaced an inspiration of mine, The Happy Handicapper, Mr. Bob Summers, who passed away about a year ago. Bob was the longtime handicapper at the Buffalo News and his articles were always positive and full of upbeat language and joy. Bob's writings, and his use of a clumsy third person writing style, was an inspiration to me and he is missed, but Geno has carried on the tradition of writing well.
My only goal for this blog is more of the same, but better. I don't intend to ever write a handicapping book, but I'm writing parts of it every blog entry. I consider my writings a work in progress and I work at my craft. As I'm working, I'm doing my best to articulate my thoughts cohesively. I hope you like it, it is for you I write.
I hope to meet as many of you as possible during the Breeders' Cup. Stay positive, add to other's joy, think before you talk, have empathy. Love one another as you would have others love you.
Here's hoping we break 28,000 visitors by year four.
The Little Turk was campaigning for glory on the soccer field this past weekend. The chance to watch him run free up the wing gave the Big Turk a chance to decompress after handi-blogging nearly 100 races this calendar year. I had several races set aside this week to handicap, but after spending an hour or so on the Stephen Foster field, I could not find the focus to think of any other hoofbeats.
Resetting the pre-race buzz, I looked at this race as a chance for Einstein to once again prove to the racing world that he is the best older horse racing right now in North America. The Pitts trainee doesn't care about the surface at all, he just runs and wins. I also expected a big coming out party for Researcher and Finallymadeit.
The Turk often talks about the best bets being the ones you don't make. I couldn't settle on a bet strategy that I liked so I passed on betting at all. That proved to be a good move, as two horses I considered candidates for Show and the 4th spot on the Superfecta, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy, went right to the wire for the top two spots, while Einstein had a horrible trip and only his class allowed him to find Show.
Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on my ol' Kentucky home dirt for 3 YO and Up.
Watch the trips and tip your hat to the winner.
The race I wanted to handicap this weekend was The Californian at Hollywood Park. Congrats to the former claimer Informed, a horse I would not have picked. The best bets are sometimes the ones we can't make because jr. is playing soccer. Go Fire!
