The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Nassau on Turf at Woodbine

Clement: Photo by Nancy Rokos

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  It's nice to break away from the Triple Crown trail to handicap races where my real passion is, turf running.  A route of turf over a beautiful course really stirs the Turk's horse racing imagination.  With all due respect to mega trainers like Pletcher, et al, I most admire  the turf training maestros like a Johnathan Sheppard, John Gosden or Christophe Clement, pictured left.  The term Conditioner seems to have been created for him.

Woodbine's turf course is one of my favorites in North America, just behind Arlington.  Woodbine is far ahead of Arlington in generating stakes races and purses.  While I'm playing Arlington today, for a beautiful early season Saturday, the card should be much better than it is.  How a Saturday card, in what is a short race season at Arlington, cannot contain a single stakes race or have a purse over $25,000, is very concerning to me about the future of that track.

Anyway, that's a subject for someone who knows what they are talking about, a serious journalist or blogger, and not this idiot handicapper.

Let's get it on!

Woodbine Race 8: The Nassau Grade 8, 1 Mile on Turf

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Stellar Path (Fr)/4	A+
Place	Deceptive Vision/9	A
Show	Resistivity/11	A--
Exotic	Overheard/3	B++
Also Ran's	Winning Rhythm/12	B
	Sky Treasure/7	B-
	Strut the Course/1	C++
	Skylander Girl/2	C
	Surtsey/5	C
	Llanarmon/6	C
	Copper Kitten/8	C
	Silent Star/10	C
	Woodbine Race 8: Post Time 4:45 ET	The Nassau G2
	1 Mile on Turf	For F&M, 3 YOs and Up

I'm focused on faster handicapping.  I'm developing a better technique for when I am at the track and making a spot play, looking at Past Performances for the first time seconds after one race ends and with only enough time to quickly review and get to the windows.  I've become to accustomed to sitting at the table in dead silence, with my charts and graphs, and taking tons of time to assemble complex exotic bets.  At the track, I toss all that in the garbage for a few spot plays here and there.

I'm typically not a fan of betting any race I haven't put alot of preparation into, but what the heck, I'm letting my hair down (metaphysically speaking that is!)

Stellar Path and Deceptive Vision were the top horses coming out of my cursory review.  Stellar Path is a versatile 4 YO, 10 of 14 in the money, 7 of 10 in the money at the distance, and coming in off a less than firm turf win.  Deceptive Vision comes in off a win at KEE on the dirt, a switch Pierce wins 50% of the time, albeit on 4 tries.  Husbands up.

A group of four horses made it into my exotic pool.  I say exotic loosely, as I'm looking at Exacta primarily, maybe Tri, maybe not. Resistivity, a Mark Casse trainee, has been training sharply and looks ready to step up in class.  Expect a great price.  Overheard, 10 of 11 in the money on turf and 3 of 3 at WO, has been training up since an early April fourth at KEE.  Winning Rhythm I think would like more distance, has only 1 win in 6 at this distance, none at WO, and is 0 of 3 in 2015.  Sid Attard first time with trainer stats 9% on 22 tries.  Sky Treasure I expect will be on ticket anywhere but first.  Casse's mare spent the Winter at SA.

Simple Exacta: $2 Bet  4, 9 OVER 4,9 3,7,11,12 for $20

Simple Triactor ($0.20 bet available) $2 Bet 4, 9 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 is $80.

I doubt I care that much so we will try to thin that down to something liker this:  $2 Bet 4,9 over 4,9 11,3,12 over 9,11,3,12,7 for $58.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 30, 2009: The Nassau Grade II (Turf) at Woodbine

Race 8 WO: The Nassau Grade II: 1 1/16 miles on Turf for F&M 3 YO and Up.



Horse wagering and investing with Bernie Madoff are the two easiest ways in America to invest $16 dollars and strike a $12.10 return. Ok, Madoff is in jail, and the bet was at a Canadien track, but you get the idea. Handicapping can be like this, but again, it's just as important to look at the post race constructively if you wish to gain expierence and improve.

The Nassau at Woodbine pre race looked like a two horse race, Rutherienne and Callwood Dancer (IRE). The bettors saw it that way too. I saw it that was as well so I went for what I considered an easy, low risk exactor, which I hit. With that in my back pocket, I knew I could place a few exotics and make this race almost a push if I didn't win.

My base handicap had three of the top four finishers slotted exactly, and only Meadow Saffron stood between me and a triactor payout. Even if I would have increased my bets to $24 I would not have included Meadow Saffron, so again the bets you don't place can win you (save you) money.



That is seven races since Callwood Dancer won last, and she ran a great final 1/16. I'm not that worried about her anymore.

The Nomination Is In: May 30, 2009; The Nassau Grade II (Turf) at Woodbine

That fine looking mare to the left is the 2008 Canadian Turf Champ Callwood Dancer (IRE). The picture comes her Hall of Fame Trainer Roger Attfield's website.
That award was for 2008, and current form is always the driving force behind horse racing, not past success. Callwood Dancer (IRE) was eased out of her last start and really hasn't been that dominant over a six race span. That said, this is one classy lady who has lots of graded stakes experience, and she's home, but she faces a very stiff test from American invader Rutheriennne.

Woodbine Race 8 Post Time 4:24 ET: The Nassau Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on pure Ontario turf for F&M 3 YO and UP.


I'm going to approach this as a chalk lock and try to build a Triactor and Superfecta off that fact. I'm going to have Callwood Dancer and Rutherienne on every ticket, including an exactor and then just work my handicap. The payouts won't be huge if it goes the way I think it will, but I'm going exotic hunting anyway. I'll bet no more the 10-12 dollars and we'll see what happens.

The quality after the top two is pretty even at n3X/alw levels. Points of Grace seems to be getting some attention but I'm hedging Tell It as It Is abover her.

Not that it matters here, but Go Mine That Bird! Yes, the Turk adores the little gelding.

Turk out!