Sunday, August 23, 2020

Post Race Results for Fourstardave and the 52 Bets in 52 Weeks challenge resumes

 

It's the age old saying, is it better to be lucky or skilled?  In my experience at the track, skill gets you break even and luck brings you an ROI with boasting about.

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  We started 2020 with the intention of blogging every week and having a 52 Bets in 52 Weeks series of posts.  We made it to the end of February before, in this order, my father in law died, the quarantine started and life came to halt, and my father died.  When horse racing did return, and when I came out of the fog I was in personally, the world was seen differently by me.  

The lack of fans at the track doesn't bother me, but the rhythm of the racing season is ajar.  Coupled with a sense of my own mortality, I wasn't sure if this blog, started in a different time and different place, September 2008, was worth continuing.  

The reality is that almost no one reads it anymore.  My traffic was never great, and it's abysmal now.  When people did read blogs, mine wasn't good enough, or my writing not crisp enough to garner regular readers. I soldiered on because I never started this blog for any reason other than to share my insights into the game of handicapping and betting with anyone interested.  While the world is different, and my priorities for that matter also, I still like the challenge of betting the ponies and I continue to be good at it.  I may not have much charisma as a turf writer, but I have always done a good job picking winners, be it superfectas in the old days, but over the last few years, the exacta near exclusively.

I handicapped the Fourstardave and was struck by how good the field was.  For the first time in a very long time I almost didn't toss any runners, and only after some hand wringing did I toss the Show horse, Casa Creed, a Mott horse who at 4 YO I thought was too slow to be with this group.  I didn't particularly love recent form, although training nicely at SAR, but last year over this course he put up a 1.33.72 in the Hall of Fame G2.  This one was won in 1:33.32.  I just thought there was too much in front of him, but I did notice he was 5th on the tote board, just a bit better than the returning last year winner, Got Stormy.  

Anyways, in the blog post I was clear that I wasn't interested in betting short paying favorites and I said I'd be inclined to $2 Bet Halladay and Got Stormy OVER Raging Bull, Without Parole and Uni for $12.  

My ultimate bet was Halladay/Got Stormy OVER Halladay, Got Stormy, Raging BullWithout Parole and Uni, a $2 Bet for $16.  You hope for the best, luck helps, and on this day that $16 became $125.  You'll find the race chart from DRF here. 

The lovely Dita (pictured above) honored me with a cigar for my effort.  


The 52 in 52 is up to Race 6. I'm just going to keep this spreadsheet rolling forward until the sample size is over 100.  


Have fun with it friends,  Turk Out!

Friday, August 21, 2020

The Nomination Is In: The Fourstardave Handicap Grade 1 at Saratoga

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, sharing handicapping and bet construction advice since 2008.  

I moved to Saratoga, Jumel Place, in April of 1986 and lived there until late November.  I did all the requisite things that a Navy Petty Officer should do,  including dating a Skiddy Kiddy, hanging out at The Metro and becoming a fixture at the race track.  What I did not get the pleasure of doing was see Fourstardave (pictured above with photo credit: Adam Coglianese) run in person, as he burst onto the scene a year later in 1987.  The Sultan of Saratoga is gone but not forgotten, but it's horses like this that catch the eyes and hearts of race fans that are needed if this sport is ever going to grow again.  I'm not talking about handle, which is nice and needed, I'm talking about culturally relevancy.

I grew up when sports like Boxing and Horse Racing were still relevant.  The generation that fought World War 2 was approaching retirement, enjoying the sports that they and their fathers grew up with, but funny things happen along the cultural road.  Gambling on Football now dwarfs everything.  Twitter and Social Media platforms offer quick takes which has replaced reading and deeper analysis.  I'm not trying to be the old guy shouting from the window for a return to the past, but sometimes the old ways are best. 

 If you are reading this blog for the first time, try reading a book like Dick Mitchell's Common Sense Betting or Brad Free's Handicapping 101: A Horse Racing Primer. Join The Thorofan and find community.   Immersing yourself in something that takes time and effort can be a rewarding experience.  If anyone reading this ever wants help learning how to handicap, place a bet, or just feel comfortable at a race track, contact me.  I'll do my best to help you and I promise I'm not a creeper! 

It's such a lost year on many levels. I was so engaged at the beginning of the year with handicapping and this blog but the quarantine and life in general just took its toll.  My only real objective now is to stay fresh, watch September and early October racing carefully, and prepare for Breeders' Cup Weekend.  I'm all about turf racing and I prefer the cagey 5-7 year old's the best, and while I prefer a bit more of a route of grass, the inner turf, 1 mile, Grade 1 Fourstardave gives me the opportunity at a nine horse field and a lot of natural class.  Lets get after this.  




Let's do our best to look at current form:

10 July 2020: Keeneland. 1 Mile, Firm Turf. Maker's Mark Mile G1 Raging Bull (Fr), Emmaus (Ire) and Without Parole (GB)



 4 July 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf. Poker Grade 3.  Got Stormy, Valid Point



27 June 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf.  Just a Game Grade 1.  Uni (GB)



20 June 2020: Churchill Downs. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf. Wise Dan Grade 2. Casa Creed, Emmaus (Ire)



26 July 2020: Saratoga. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Inner Turf.  The Bernard Baruch Grade 2. Halladay



8 August 2020: Saratoga. 5 1/2 F Firm Turf.  Troy Grade 3. Chewing Gum



 

 That is the latest on every horse in the field.  What to make of it or just noise?  We don't have a single last race winner entering the gate.  That is highly unusual, but the ebb and flow of the race season is so out of whack right now it's understandable. So takeaways:
  •  Raging Bull (Fr) was out kicked in a late bid.  Capable of a 1:32 Mile.
  • Casa Creed ran a 1:33.72 in Hall of Fame G2 on this course as a three year old last year.  Onbly 2 starts since for Mott's runner. Mostly slow efforts.
  • Emmaus (Ire) trainer Murphy 0-10 Graded Stakes past calendar year.  Never fast but seems in decline.
  • Of the two Mares, Got Stormy's form has been off in 2020.  Won this last year at 5-1. 
  • Halladay is a beautiful Grey/Roan who didn't have another gear when challenged last out. Hard to believe Pletcher Graded Stakes 9% in 187 attempts over past year.  
  • One of four (three too many) Chad Brown's, Uni (GB) is classy and the best horse in this field as a Mare. Brown is 29% off 31-60 day layoffs and a staggering 25% Graded Stake Winner in 271 attempts. 
  • Valid Point is a Scat Daddy Grade 1 winner in 6th start.  Has had bad trips.  Arlington's turf is not apples and apples with Saratoga, but 1:35.5 as 3 YO in Grade 1 Secretariat
  • Without Parole (GB) is still winless in North America under Brown and winless since Ascot in 2018.  Classy.  Need more. 
  • Chewing Gum is Mott's second in the gate, off a quick turnaround 2 weeks ago, stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs.  Crap Shoot.  
When a field is like this, evolving current form, overall good quality, I tend to trust my base handicap and let the tote board give me insight into the opportunity cost of the bet.  I'm not sure I see value in betting this race until I see where the tote board ranks Raging Bull (Fr) the morning line favorite, how Without Parole and Uni (GB) match up on tote, and where a dark horse may emerge on a value line, such as Hallady or Got Stormy OVER Uni (GB), Without Parole (GB) and Raging Bull (Fr).  That would be the sort of $2 Exacta ($12 total) that I could get behind.  

Whatever you do, make your betting capital count and have fun with it!

Turk Out.