The Nomination Is In: The Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

River Seven

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk's handicap of the Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park.  Friends of The Turk know that he pretty much ignores two year old racing, enjoys three year old's and the excitement of the Triple Crown Series, but that his real passion is the Handicap Division, our older runners.  Why?  I love to look at my printed out past performances and scribble on horses with 15 starts or more,  with a history, a record that I can sink my analytical teeth into. I like to study the past performances and video and nothing jazzes me up more than seeing a horse blossom as a four or five year old who was labeled as a bust by March of his three year old season.

The Donn Handicap is named after the Donn family that owned and managed the track for sixty years, starting with James Donn, and then James Jr and finally Douglas. While they might not recognize the place anymore, the track is still magic this time of the year when most of the Eastern United States is suffering through polar vortex's and such.

I'd be remiss in not thanking first the good folks at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts today with you in their Handicapper's Corner.  You can find out about Thorofan's Goals from this link and there is South Florida chapter waiting to make you part of the group.

You can take a  few different views on horses:  They start the next season in the same form as they ended the last OR some of them go back to the farm and don't come back the same, at least not right away.  There is always a bit of mystery how they will perform early in the season, but by the Donn most of the runners have either been working regularly or on their second starts off the break.  When I think of The Donn, I think of The Hal's Hope, a Grade 3 event at Gulfstream in early January that is often the first race off the break for the trainers in residence.  Let's take a peek at some of today's runners: Lea, Uncaptured and Neck 'n Neck.





In December Neck 'n Neck, River Seven and Bourbon Courage got together at Gulfstream in the $100,000 Harlan's Holiday.




and I'll only go as far back as The Clark Handicap the day after Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs.






This is a deep and deceptively very good field. I could make a case for six horses winning but hey, this is gambling and we have to take a position and stick with it.  If you handicap the same way, and you approach the races with method and consistency, you'll find that races like this won't be any easier.  That's the reality, no method can make a good race decode into a winning ticket.  What I think I've done is identify the layers, the groupings that these horses are within and from these groupings an exotic ticket can be assembled.  Out of each group someone my drop in group or rise in group and when I do post race analysis (i.e. hindsight handicapping) it always seems so clear where I went wrong.

Let's get after it!

The top layer of potential winners (In Blue) and the next layer of horses (in Yellow) have very little separating them.  For better or worse I'm going to back River Seven to win. For a fan of horse racing in Ontario, its a hoot for me to see River Seven and Uncaptured here together. Winner of the late December Harlan's Holiday, I think he could stay near the lead and wire it.  Trainer Gonzalez 9% off the break and him and Rocco, up, do well together.

River Seven is about as tepid a chalk as I make, and I'm hedging with Romansh and Revolutionary.  Both come in off impressive wins.  Romansh , a pricey Bernadini for Godolphin, made the Aqueduct Discovery Handicap a easy looking romp. Trainer Albertrani is 9% off the break as well.  Johnny V is up.

Revolutionary was shutdown after the Belmont and clipped along nicely in a $100K OC at Gulfstream a few weeks back:




I guess I should stop and say I'm not sure where the pace is coming from in this race.  That clouds the betting analysis as I don't see where a horse like Revolutionary will slot in. Someone will shoot out and an off the pace runner like this will have someone to slingshot off of I reckon. Pletcher's WinStar runner seems primed for a good run and I'm excited to see such quality in the handicap division.  23% off the break, Castellano and Pletcher are 33% together on 125 GP starts this past year!

Lea, wearing colors I still see Blame in as he beat mighty Zenyatta, won the Hal's Hope in his first fast dirt effort.  Mott took over for Stall and we'll see what he can do with a 5 YO that didn't really fire last year.  Rosario up.  I can close my eyes and see Lea at the front, and while I'm sure that wouldn't be the strategy, he could steal it from the front end.  Very strong liking today.

Uncaptured should like the extra distance.  Posts 1-2-3 have won 20 of 32 races this meet.  He could drop in layers but I don't see much reason to think he'd freak up to Win.

Will Take Charge is my favorite of last year's 3 YOs and I'm super excited he's still in training.  That said, Lukas is 3% off long break and this is first race since the Clark.  Training OK, He's going to get heavy betting action and i'm betting him out of Win and Place.  $3.0 MM winner.  Two Grade 1's, two Grade 2's.  Serious.  Doesn't help he gets 123 pounds today, 7 more than River Seven.

Neck n' Neck and Bourbon's Courage round out a solid field of possible contenders.  Neck n' Neck has been horrible at GP, no wins in 5 starts.  Bourbon Courage is training sharp with three straight bullets and is always moving forward.  Could crash the exotic party.

I'm tossing 7-10-11 at my own peril.

So what do I do with this?  The Super High Five is on the menu.  I feel compelled to bet it, but low dollar straight bets, the kinda win that a handicapper's legend is made from if he hits it.  A realistic bet from me might be something along the lines of:



I have no idea how this will finish;  I do know its a big field, with 6 out of 11 I think could win, and it should be a fun race.  Welcome back Handicap Division, I've missed you.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis Hoosier Park Late Pick 4

Neck 'n Neck:  Photo by Hearald Bulletin

The Turk spoke at length yesterday about choosing your betting targets carefully, and I must say I am quite pleased with my results from Hoosier Park's late Pick 4, which included the Indiana Oaks and the Indiana Derby.

My first piece of good advice was the consistency of the handicapping that was allowed by having a Pick 4 that consisted of all dirt races with all at two turns, and good weather.  In about 2 hours work (4 hours total when I add in the work pleasure of blogging) I was able to return over $1,100 by just applying my base handicaps over what is essentially lazy betting for me, simple boxes.  I made a key decision that made it possible, a decision I acknowledged pre race, the decision to single Grace Hall in the Indiana Oaks, and then fate helped as well (the scratch of Juanita gave me the cash to go as deep as Salty Strike in the Mari Hilman George).  Fate doesn't just go in the Turk's favor though, the neck that Fourty Nine Watts beat Shadowbdancing by in the Schaefer Mile cost me the Superfecta and an additional $4,200.  Spilled milk, never focus on the losses, there are no moral victories, only cash in or out of the wallet, and my wallet is phat right now.



I followed my basics, which to my five readers, I have articulated ad nausea over the years.  I focused yesterday on current form, current work, in the money records on the surface and the distance, and Hoosier Park work got a premium.  I successfully put Hurricane Ike high up my rankings while the bettors only had him 8th in the field based on his last good race, last year's solid work on this Indiana Derby day. I wasn't floored by Bob Baffert's deep stable that shipped here.  Good horses, but ask yourself why here?  They aren't prepping for Breeders' Cup work, he was trying to win something for demanding owners while he can in this season.  He's good at this, but none of his runners were locks, yet the name Baffert draws action.

About the only disappointment for me was all the scratches in the Indiana Oaks (4 horses); It really made the race not bettable, especially with one entry coupled. The second disappointment was the performance of Stealcase and Eastergift in the Indiana Derby.  I could have survived one of them failing and won the superfecta, but I couldn't overcome both have really poor efforts. 

Good stuff friends, it's racing like yesterday that really lowers my blood pressure and makes me remember why I love the game and this blog. 

Most of October's balance will be dedicated towards getting ready for my biggest betting weekend left in the calendar year, Breeders' Cup.  After going to the last two at Churchill Downs I've chosen to skip this years.  Why Turk?  Simple reason really, I can't  bet like I like to bet when I am at the event.  I get caught up in the social aspects of the races, I meet friends, I loiter.  At Turk Central I will melt down my ADW circuits with my complicated matrix superfecta bets and my goal is a $2,000 plus net earnings weekend minimum.  I never set expectations like that, it's a slippery slope, but I'm serious about these two days this year and I'm upping the pressure I put on myself to prepare.  Preparation is secondary to my profession, so I will fit it in and I have plenty of time. 

Have a good NFL betting day friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Hoosier Park All Stakes Pick 4

Bourbon Courage: Lynn Roberts, Hodges Photography

In my last blog post, a post celebrating the fourth anniversary of "The Turk and The Little Turk" blog, I spoke of a lack of passion I've had this year.  The horses haven't been doing it for me as a fan, and while I'm a good gambler, I'm really a fan, and fans need passion and excitement to keep them engaged.  I'm not a fickle Turk though, this isn't about me shifting allegiances to tennis, WWF Wrestling, synchronized swimming or something eccentric, this is simply an admission that the current crop of handicap division horses makes me yawn more than scream, and the 3 year olds  have been an utter train wreck of injuries and heartbreak. Luckily there are some segments of racing that still get my heart beating, and as in life, its the ladies that hold my interest when all else fails.  I've really enjoyed the fillies and mares this year and sprint racing instead of what has been passing for quality classic distance racing. 

In year five of my blog I'm going to talk about more than just handicapping.  I'd love to tell you what subjects I plan to cover, but that's far more restrictive than I want to be.  I lead a fairly regimented and structured life, and with my blog I'm just going to let my (figurative) hair down and talk about ye' ol Turk and the world around me. 

We are in Breeders' Cup season now, with most of the heavy hitters either already running their final prep races or doing that in the next two race weekends.  The Santa Anita, Keeneland or Belmont tracks are where I am spending my time watching but when I looked for a handicapping opportunity this weekend, my eyes gravitated to Hoosier Park and the late pick 4.  I was turned off (as a bettor)my the field sizes in Santa Anita in the key races I cared about like the five horse Arroyo Seco Mile.  As a race fan I think its important to watch the 5 YO Japanese Trailblazer and the former Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude. 

Big fields and nice pots of money for trainers to hunt for, isn't that what's its about?  It's a shame that racinos pull away product from the treasures of our race tradition, but those states get it and backward places like Illinois and California and New York don't. Anyway, I'm going to avoid religion and politics here at The Turk, but just about everything else goes. 

When I look for places to invest my racing capital I try to eliminate variables and tilt the odds a bit in my favor.  When I look at this sequence a few things popped: All dirt, all two turns, weather doesn't appear to be an issue. 




Race 9 is the Michael Schaefer Memorial Mile $100K, 2 turn 1 mile race.  By the way, Mr. Schaefer was a US Navy veteran likes yours truly and a war vet, just like yours truly.  Like is the case in big racino racing days, you get a pretty big differential in talent that competes, but you also learn the big name ship in horses don't always win, so don't feel like you have to play the chalk or nothing.  I think its a three horse race for win honors though.

Shadowbdancing is 4 of 5 in the money in 2012, 4 of 7 in the money in 2011, 26 of 32 in the money on dirt and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance and the races lone millionaire. The 7 YO is consistent but never a lock. Ultra competitive, expect an in the money finish.

I'm looking for value and Hurrican Ike represents that; tacked up today by new trainer Michael Stidham, he hasn't run as well as he has since this race a year ago. First time on dirt since a hideous Texas Mile effort in April. 3 of 3 in the money at HOO with 2 wins, winless in 2012.

Good Lord switches turf to dirt, and returns to a surface where he freaked out two back to back triple digits Beyers and sprint distance.

Baffert must be respected, clicking off wins at a 31% clip right now, and he brings Bejarano in to ride Hoorayforhollywood; Most likely the big chalk, its prudent to cover in P4 but I'll take a stand a bit in the superfecta shading him down and not singling.  The 4 YO Storm Cat has the look of the real deal but was a bust in the Grade 1  Malibu and seems to be stuck in an Optional Claimer class. 

Race 10 is the Mari Hulman George $100K. Classy of the DRF to spell Ms. George's name wrong in the Past Performances, a truly special woman and friend to all animals. 

Baffert's Ellafitz will command mondo respect and cash but I'm looking for value and Michael Maker's Juanita, if she goes here (entered KEE R8 7 Oct 12) will be my dark bay or brown hope.  1 win in 1 try at HOO, 4 of 6 in the money at the distance and 10 of 12 in the money on dirt, with 5 wins. 

Absinthe Minded goes for D. Wayne Lukas who I've been a bit critical of, and I should shut the F**K up about him, as he is a legend and he's doing what he loves and I should just view him as I would any 9% trainer and not expect him to be at the top anymore.  I am happy for him to see him get of the mat with his graded stakes win percentage.  This 5 YO ran 5f in 1:00 4/5ths recently and when she's on, she's on, like her Grade 1 Apple Blossom Place to Plum Pretty earlier this year.

I'll take my chances against Salty Strike and Brushed by a Star is capable.

In the Indiana Oaks the lovely Grace Hall goes for Tony Dutrow with Ramon Dominguez up. A dud in the Alabama as a well beaten chalk to Questing et al, a pretty consistent runner, 8 of 9 in the money lifetime and the race's lone millionaire by a bunch.  May single, but we'll cross that bridge later.

Amie's Dini has been training well and will be a big price if you like that sort of stuff, well like just about every player,  Seems to be getting better.  Hmmm.

The coupled Uptown Bernie and Wine Princess will be competitive but I like Bridgemohan's mount Wine Princess a bit more.  Both need to show more speed if they have it. 

I've been an Eden Moon fan all year, you have to go back to 3 March at SA to find a good effort on dirt, and the ship for the Kentucky Oaks wasn't worth the travel expense.

When I rattle on about what I don't like about racing, its the lack of fields and field strength.  I don't care if this field for the Indiana Derby is world class, but its full and vibrant and there is enough class to make this fun.  I was so enamored as I write this I really don't know who I'm backing.  I'll start with Bourbon Courage, the Grade 2 Super Derby winner last time out, with that on the heels of the place finish in the Grade 2  West Virgina Derby. Conventional wisdom is the horse will step back at some point, but we save conventional wisdom for the bullshit pile here at The Turk. I have him on top but I'm not sure if he has the class of others here. 

Easter Gift, a Hard Spun son, has been training well at the Saratoga training track since early August and in the middle of that, a nice win in the slop in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones for trainer Zito.

Fed Biz is a lightly raced Baffert that ran well on dirt at SA and won a stakes at Del Mar over that crappy fake dirt track that I try to ignore. Hard to judge really what he has here. 

I like Stealcase and Neck 'n Neck quite a bit; Stealcase's sire, Lawyer Ron, rest in peace, was a favored colt of mine and his loss still makes me a bit emotional, resonating like the deaths of Tuscan Evening and Lost in the Fog and George Washington still do with me.  Don't tell me you're a race fan if you can't tell me who your heart hangs heaviest for.  Alydar and Ferdinand gotta mean something to you too!

I think I digressed.  Stealcase is a good, not great horse, honest, with a trainer in Mark Casse who is comfortable taking shots.  I like that! The Haskell effort was solid, not embarrassed in the Travers, this isn't out of the question.  Neck 'n Neck  is a Flower Alley, cut from similar cloth. Training well, the Grade 3 winner came just short in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and also wasn't embarrassed in the Travers.

I'll be going vertical and horizontal and we'll see what kind of fun we can make today into.  I hope whatever track you play find races where you can tilt some of the variables your way.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!