Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 25, 2009: The Met Mile

Race 10 BEL: The Met (Mile) Handicap Grade I; 1 Mile on NYS Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Prerace I had a serious "I dunno" feeling. I did feel strongly about Bribon (FR) and Smooth Air. If not for 3/4 of a length and a gutty final few kicks by Driven by Success I'd be talking about the Superfecta that I nailed. I had Driven for Success finishing a bit further down and that's the difficulty with sprint races as you can throw a blanket sometimes around the middle of the pack and it's as much guess work as it is handicapping.

I thought Riley Tucker ran well as did Smooth Air. Look for both to improve next time out.

The Turk bet $12 bucks and made $16.60. Better then losing, but I better keep going to the day job.



Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 25, 2009: The Met Mile

I dunno. Not the most encouraging words you can hear from a bettor you hope has the Rosetta Stone of handicapping for the race you are about to pluck money down on. Today's Met Mile is one of those I dunno type of races for me. With a few notable dropouts, including Mr. Fantasy , it's a field with parity galore and some head scratchers.

When I have a I dunno feeling I try as a handicapper to realize that if I'm this confused, then many others will be too. It's a big field, odds will grow long on some starters and with that some hay can be made if you can construct a handicap that perhaps doesn't identify the exact order of finish, but just likely ranges of finish. Yes, I'm talking about a boxed out 10 cent super day for me.

Race 10 BEL: The Metropolitan Handicap Grade I; 1 Mile on NYS Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



With my handicap set, I'm thinking out a bet strategy. My first decision is for size of bet. With my I dunno feel for this race, I think I will limit myself to no more then three 10 cent boxed supers ($7.20) a three straight $1 Tri's ($3) and a $2 win bet on either Smooth Air or Bribon, whoever has better then 3.5-1 odds.

Limited exposure, but the thrill will be big to pull off a super with this field.

I'd be negligent if I didn't ask everyone to think about the reason for the holiday. As horsepeople, we can all imagine the terrible 1st World War. We can place ourselves in the boots of Major Belmont, weary from war and still based in Paris, having to make the hard decision that led to Man O' War being sold at auction. We can think about the sacrifice of so many Americans in the past 100 years abroad as we enjoy our pasttime that their sacrifice secured for us. Think about our uniformed dead and the loved ones they left behind. The Turk is a proud Gulf War vet and he wishes all of his vet extended family health and prayers as they remember the ones who didn't come home.