I must admit something: In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park. I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it. A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit. I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land.
Stephen Foster Handicap G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles
Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles. The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners. I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses. You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six. I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so. This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks.
Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously. The Uncle Mo son Speed Bias is eye catching and a great price most likely. No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.
I've got a coin toss between Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy as the best horses in the gate. Rattle N Roll has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed. Three wins straight. 8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023. Smile Happy can run well early, can run well late. Blazing in the Alysheba in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good.
I threw a blanket over my next group. The beforementioned Speed Bias should have the best price. Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while. Training very sharply.
Western Will Power is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated. Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023. Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out. 5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place.
Proxy has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip. excellent late speed on display last time out at Oaklawn Handicap. Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April. 7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance.
I never know what to do with Stilleto Boy. No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance. 3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10. 9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts. I expect him to falter (famous last words).
I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing Last Samurai and Happy American. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field.
Oaklawn Handicap G2: 22 April 2023; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
