Post Race Review with Video of Travers Stake Day

Drefong/Taylor Ejdys/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga didn't disappoint anymore than McGregor/Mayweather did. While I love the brash Irishman, I could never root for the foreign invader over the American.  You have to sort of hold your nose about both of their transgressions in life, but for my money, boxing, when its done right, is every bit the best sport on the planet next to horse racing.  How far outside of conventional thinking am I?  I know....

One thing I've always loved about the horses is they have no transgressions.  These athletes live to perform, give us all they have, and hopefully someone with ethics cares for them until they pass, giving them as best a life as they can have after the track.

I choose Drefong for my picture today as my misjudgment of him was my biggest error in a very successful betting day where I turned a 42% profit on my investment capital.  I respected the champion sprinter very much but I didn't like the gate position and severely underestimated his ability to fly out of that gate and strike the lead before the first turn.  I thought Diving Rod's positioning would deliver the upset but it wasn't to be.  Luckily I covered him in the horizontals.  I didn't play it but Drefong was my only miss in my theoretical Pick 6 that would have paid $7,967.  It was right there for the taking but if you play Pick 6 enough you learn you just have to move on from the misses.

The Twin Spires results tell the tale of my day that started slow and really turned with Races 9-10-11 and 12.

Race 6: The Personal Ensign Grade 1




Race 7: The Ballerina Stakes Grade 1




Race 8: The H. Allen Jerkens Grade 1




Race 9: The Forego Grade 1




Race 10: The Sword Dancer Grade 1




Race 11: Travers Stakes Grade 1




Race 12: The Ballston Spa Grade 2




Final Takeaways:

• Songbird was wildly overplayed. She's a great champion, but the Delaware Handicap was a so-so race Forever Unbridled is better than anyone that was in that race,   I started the day with a defensive $10 win bet on Forever Unbridled, the odds on Songbird were too low.  
• I really underestimated Highway Star.  I had a boxed exacta that his game Place obliterated. She's been training well, and had a sloppy track 96 Beyer at Belmont but I just don't see it on paper.  I was fooled.  My first indication was she was 9-2 just before Post, an 18% win percentage, where I had her at 1%.  Ugh.  
• I liked Takaful more than I liked Practical Joke, but I thought they'd both have a chance to win and the close finish didn't disappoint or surprise. I rightly shaded down American Anthem but over estimated Coal Front.  I won an exacta that lost money-a gambling mistake I should not have made.  
• I've already explained my Drefong mishap in The Forego.  
• I had Sadler's Joy prerace to win The Sword Dancer.  This race seemed so obvious.  I placed my only Trifecta bet of the day and won vertically $34 dollars on a Tri and Exacta.  Wished I'd played more!  I didn't buy the Idaho(Ire) hype. 
• I had West Coast as my co-favorite to win the Travers with Irap.  I had Gunnevera at the bottom of my group that could Place, seven deep, but I can't say I was that high on him.  
• I went into Race 12 with a Will Pay if Roco Rojo (Ire) won of $536 in the Pick 3.  That said, I thought Antonoe would finally upset her older rival, but it wasn't to be.
• I finished with two pick 3 wins and an entertaining afternoon.  

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 at Saratoga

Takaful: Robert Mauhar/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  That very handsome colt in Shadwell Stable silks is Takaful, not my top pick but an intriguing runner in today's H. Allen Jerkens, part of this first of several blog posts today related to Saratoga.

Travers Day at Saratoga is one of the great betting days of the year for Graded Stakes fans like me.  I know, I lose street cred by proclaiming myself a fan first, degenerate second, but I don't really give a s**t about street cred as a handicapper or bettor.  I care about the quality of my work and my handicapping, and I care about adding improvements to my bet construction and overall approach to racetrack investing.

I'm approaching, I'm reaching, I've already arrived at a new place in my life:  North of 50, set in my ways, my Little Turk on the doorstep of adulthood and I'm taking stock of the things I love to do.  I'm still clinging to my love of the horses and the races.  I've really enjoyed writing this blog for the sheer pleasure of it.  I'd like to think that people will return to blogs again after the pre-Twitter heyday, but I'm in it for the long haul and I'm in it for me and the people who enjoy these free thoughts.

I'm going to break Travers Day into bite sized nuggets.  The first post of the day is the Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 that includes The Personal Ensign, The Ballerina and the newly re minted Kings Bishop, the H. Allen Jerkens, all Grade 1s.  I'm usually not down with name changes, but how can you be against putting Mr. Jerkens name on anything?

The Friday/Saturday weather looks dry.  Keep your eye on the Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes prior to betting always.

I'm also unveiling a new chart look this week.  it's something I use as I prep to bet as post time approaches to help me identify under and overlays.  I've taken the Morning Line into Percentage.  Why is the morning Line >100%?  Track Takeout and Breakage (losses during rounding, retained by track).  I use the POST RACE version of my charts in real time to update post time odds and make my vertical bets (intra race).

Anyway, these three races are pretty chalky.  With Race 7-8 at 7F Pace and out of  the gate speed plays a huge role and Race 6 with a five horse field and a huge but vulnerable favorite.



Race 6 starts a Pick 3 (6-7-8).  Race 7 starts a P3 (7-8-9) as well as a Pick 6 (7-8-9-10-11-12) and Race 8 starts a P3 (8-9-10 and a $1MM P4 8-9-10-11).



I don't know yet what I'm doing.  I'm sure it will mirror what you see here but I may try and trim Race 8 down to 4 contenders and recover my value horses in Race 6.  This is the mix and match part of gambling that I use these spreadsheets to help me with as post time approaches.  I did it with red pen and paper for years but two computer monitors, a tablet a phone and I am becoming much more efficient.

Have fun friends- Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: August 27, 2011; The Travers Stakes Day Pick Six

It seems the question my friends keep asking is one I wish to avoid: If today's winner of the Travers is one of the 3 YOs to have won a major Grade I already, will he be a lock for horse of the year? How quickly we jump to canonize in our society. I won't rant today, it's too much of a holiday for me, these Travers Stakes days, but let's allow the year play out folks.

I put a personal favorite of mine up today, a fine picture of Point Given by Tom Killips, the 2001 winner, being led to the winners circle by the ageless master, Trainer Bob Baffert. Point Given's greatness was cemented by the time this race ended: A Preakness, a Belmont, a Haskell and a Travers in consecutive starts will do that for you. This year's three year olds have been battered and bruised for lacking a real division leader, and the question of if it's depth of talent or mediocrity is a topic I've had some wonderfully engaged discussions on with readers here and within the social media universe, as well as over cigars at a few paddocks. If the year plays out like it has, someone different will step forward.

What do I suspect today? A chance to break the cycle. I'm leaning towards a horse with raw talent to burn and the DNA of greatness, Coil, yes the one career start on dirt Coil, son of Point Given. Whoever wins, and I'm still keen on Shackleford, there's this little hootenanny called the Breeders' Cup Classic with no strong candidate currently to win. I'm more interested in allowing greatness to announce itself on the biggest stage. Someone will kick the door open today, Let's get after it!

The Travers Stakes Day Pick 6 Race 8-13 post time 3:28 ET


I'm not an advocate of the Pick Six as a betting option for the traditional bettor; It's sexy, it's daunting, it feels like a wise guy thing to do, but it's a black hole of failure to casual bettors. I've never hit one, but I think I've only personally bet a P6 a handful of times.

The Turk was a member of a Pick Six group for a short period of time. I was humbled that I was invited to join with some pretty serious fellas and smart enough to know I wasn't that into the action. My readers and friends know I'm an exotics fella, but there are much softer spots to invest in.

All that said, I've assembled a $24 $1 P6 bet. If I'm going to play it, I want to win it betting a little as possible. To me that's got a cool factor and something worth hunting for a few times a year.

It always starts with the base handicap for me, regardless of what betting menu option I choose. Once you've done the work you can take the race program either horizontally or vertically.

I'll let my spreadsheet speak for me and keep my comments short until my post race analysis, and then I'll take a little extra time to explain what I was thinking.

Have fun with the card and only bet what you are 100% prepared to lose.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 28, 2010; The Travers Stakes Day Pick Six

Horse racing legend, Ernie Munick, posted a simple statement today on Facebook: "Only so many King Bishop's in a lifetime." We follow a sport that has a long and rich tradition. Today is the 141st running of the Travers Stakes. Stop to think about for a moment: Two World Wars, a civil rights movement, a woman suffrage movement, an industrial revolution and another idiot Paris Hilton arrest spans that period of time. Seriously, how do you mark time? I wonder how many dogs I have left in my life, if I'll live to see my unborn grandchildren marry, how many champion horses will I have a chance to fall in love with and see in person? Pictured above is one of the Turk's favorite runners ever, Lost in the Fog, winner of the King's Bishop half a decade ago. Gutty, determined, accomplished and tragic. An owner that could have been my eccentric uncle and a trainer that never learned the word pretentious. Today's one of the great days in racing, enjoy it.

I was reading Bloodhorse this week and there was a quote in a story about Jerry Crawford, owner of Paddy O'Prado, winner of the Grade I Secretariat last week at Arlington. Mr. Crawford said "...When you see you can buy a Paddy O'Prado for $105,000, that tells you you don't have to go beyond that." It's a simple thing but it applies to life really: Don't overdo/overspend on anything because if you are good, if you're better than the next guy, you can get away with less is more. OK Turk, WTF? Friends, don't overbet and don't overcover is my mantra. You'll lose some bets but the ones you hit will be rewarding.

The Turk is a pretty successful pick three/pick four bettor and I have nailed a few pick sixes before but not with money on the table. Why? I don't like the outlay. I can afford it but that's not the point. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and I'm just more content picking softer targets and grinding out positive ROI.

While I often handicap Pick Sixes this is my first time in two years blogging one and the reason is very simple, it's a lot of work for a bet I'm not even going to place. Why today? Eh, life is short, how many King Bishop's are there left for me? let's get after it!

Saratoga August 28, 2010; The Travers Stakes Day Pick Six; Post Time of Leg #1 is 3:30 ET





I'm going to let the spreadsheets speak for themselves right now and I'll provide some color on my thoughts in the post raceday analysis. I narrowed my outlay on the Pick Six down to $96 and I could cut that even further by dropping the last race turf sprint claimer down to 3 covers.

I'll be betting within races and looking for some soft spots, as the defensive bettor in me knows the likelihood of the Pick Six win is wildly remote and I'd love to get back to break even. I'm an upbeat fella by nature so I'm going to take no more than $250 and limit my exposure to that.

The weather will be great and track conditions should be optimal. I like that very much! Build your own handicaps, ignore talking heads like me and enjoy. Turk Out!