Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. Today's post mark's a real milestone for this blogger, my 700th Post.
So much has changed since September 2008 when I wrote my first tentative posting. In the world that was just before Twitter, Facebook hadn't fully blown up yet, and horse racing, while damaged at that point, was not the devalued product we see now. Hollywood and Arlington, two of my favorite tracks, were there and now gone, not to mention countless synthetic racing surfaces.
I joined a blogging alliance, but by the time I joined it was obvious that blogging was a dinosaur medium, with long form writing being replaced by 140 characters. As Prince said, A sign of times. My blog, even in the best of days, was never highly read. My focus on handicapping pigeonholed me and limited my readership. I've stayed true to what I like to do and I've never worried about monetizing my efforts or increasing my clicks. I write what I write, and if it's read by even one person, that makes me happy.
There have been moments when I considered quitting the blog. My love of horse racing perhaps hit a 30 year low at the beginning of COVID. It coincided with the death of both Poppa and Pops, my Father in Law and Father, in a span of weeks. The world was a dark place. Racing was turned on its head, and I just lost interest.
It wasn't until late last year did I start to regain my love of both blogging and horse racing. My job has become very busy, as we took our business to the publicly traded market and grown it significantly. Its put a cramp on my automotive restoration activities (slowed, not stopped) but created a need for this form of mental health: the deconstruction and decoding of past performances and race charts into betting possibilities.
Over time I've narrowed my focus even further, primarily focused on two things: Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. Also over time I dropped my son, The Little Turk, from the blog title. While my not so little 23 year old will still take horse racing road trips with me (Del Mar just before COVID), he has his own sporting interests (The Buffalo Bills, Sabres and Fantasy Football) that he is pursuing.
So, The Turk remains, older, still bald, but more importantly, a wise old handicapper who has created positive ROI over a long period of time by focusing on the fundamentals of handicapping, avoiding the parts of the conditions book I'm not good at, and decoupling handicapping from Bet Construction, with an eye towards winning battles and ignoring the war.
Without too much fanfare, just like the last 699 posts, I present to you my thoughts on
The Honey Fox, a 1 mile turf affair at Gulfstream on
Fountain of Youth day. I made a rare foray back onto dirt as well this weekend, and my thoughts on the
Santa Anita Handicap can be found here as well.
The Honey Fox G3: 1 Mile over Fast Turf at GP
I'll keep my betting simple today. I think Chad Brown's Speak of the Devil (Fr) is a beast: 8 of 11 Distance Exacta, 9 of 16 Turf Exacta, 4 wins in last 9.
I'll single Speak of the Devil (Fr) with some of the value horses on the board at post time. Nothing fancy, just workmanlike betting that is rooted in fundamental math.
If you want to really hunt for value, consider adding Faith in Humanity (Fr) to the win spot. 4 YO, also trained by Brown, will have the rail and great early speed. White Frost will also get some attention from savvy bettors: Last time out winner over this surface at this distance, the Mott trained Candy Ride mare is four of four in the Turf exactas lifetime. 2nd off a long layoff that included all of 2022.
Have fun friends! Turk out.
