The Nomination Is In: September 19, 2010; The Woodbine Mile and Late Pick Three including the Northern Dancer

The Turk has been a big fan of the Woodbine Mile since its inception. The race, run over the The outermost E. P. Taylor turf course is 1 1/2 miles long with a chute allowing races of 1 1/8 miles to be run around one turn. The Taylor turf course and the main dirt course at Belmont are the only mile-and-a-half layouts in North American thoroughbred racing. You need to have a basic understanding of the courses as in many locations a second turn would have been required and that changes the dynamics. In this internet thingy day and age this information is a search browser trip away. Woodbine is the Turk's second favorite turf course in North America, and just like my favorite, Arlington, it's saddled with fake dirt for the main track, a turn off that I struggle to get by. No matter, today is one of the great days at Woodbine, and the Mile and The Northern Dancer, both Grade I's, are premier events. The fields are strong and the handicapping was really difficult, so let's just throw it out on the table and see what we got!

Woodbine Race Track Races 8-9-10; The Late Pick Three with the Grade I Northern Dancer and the Grade I Woodbine Mile, post time of Race 8 is 4:34 ET.


As always, check for scratches/changes, weather (and go back a few days for turf events) and monitor the tote board as the day goes on.

The Pick Three kicks off at 4:34 ET with the Northern Dancer. Marshside was entered all over the place this summer before finally shipping into Woodbine to take the Grade II Sky Classic. It was masterful work inside the conditions book by Trainer Drysdale. I like him here as well but he won't be without strong challengers and this is a good race to look for value. I'll be taking my base handicap and looking at the tote board before post. If I'm backing a horse second or third who is the third-fifth favorite with the bettors and the horse is > 6-1, I'm looking for a win bet to be defensive with. I like Memorial Maniac, a five time loser at this distance to be a real value play. Spice Route is very strong and I can never tell what to make of Expansion, with a wild card being Redwood (GB) who seems to run better RH than LH.

I'm going to keep the risk low on the Pick Three. I'll most likely single or provide just a second cover with value in the Northern Dancer.

The Allowance Race contains an interesting collection of even horses and I'll cover as many as four here, Thunderball, Lady's First Cat, Perfect Loch, and a value pick in his second career start, Summanus, son of Thunder Gulch who will have to shock while adding more distance. There will be some safe value mixed in as well with Casual Dude, Smart Sky, Shellback and Spirit Flying all very capable. Gambling ain't always going to be easy and often you will be perplexed: Build your handicap and live with it, the post race analysis is the tool you use to make adjustments in future base handicaps.

For the main event, the picture for this handicapper is no cleaner. I'm backing Famous Name for no reason other than I had to many nicks against the other runners and perhaps my lack of knowledge with him gave him an unfair advantage. It's quite possible. I think the Usual Q.T. is a nifty horse for Trainer Cassidy, winning 8 of 16 career starts including some of the biggest California turf events and he's 5 of 5 at the distance. No rational reason to downgrade him except I'm not sure he'll love the course and that's what I'm banking on. That said, Grand Adventure and Smokey Fire will fire well on this course and Victor's Cry seems fresh and primed. Trainer Goldberg, a 26% winner, brings in Straight Story with Maragh up, and is more than capable of hitting the board.

As a handicapper, I like to be tested with big, competitive fields. As a gambler, I prefer to pick softer targets, and as a blogger I'm just going to do my best with the marks that I'm interested in. Have fun with it. I'll be betting safely within the races, hunting for value, while I'll most likely keep the pick three to $2 2 picks X 4 picks X 2 Picks $32. I'd actually like to go a bit lower.

Have Fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: August 21, 2010; The Arlington Million Grade I

The Turk has the opportunity to handicap one of his favorite Grade I races, the Arlington Million, for one of his favorite organizations, Thorofan, and the deadline is tomorrow morning. Like most things in life, timing is everything, and this is the sort of handicap I'd rather not finalize until mid Saturday afternoon. Why? What's the weather going to be like between Thursday night and Saturday early evening? That's a long time and it's the turf condition friends, it's the rain between now and then and the firmness or lack thereof, that might be what settles this thing. The Turk, like anyone foolish enough to publicly state opinion on races more then three days before the event, has to suck it up and give an opinion as best as possible based on what they think the situation will be. My base handicapping expects the turf to be something better than yielding and the rails to be set to zero.

Sorting your way through the foreign invaders and accurately placing them in context with the rest of the field is always challenging. What I really took away from this exercise is how undistinguished the older turf division is and how unmotivated the trainers and connections of the best European horses are to come to the mid Western United States to chase a purse such as this. As a handicapper, I try not to focus on who isn't in the field and only concern myself with who is. Let's get after it.

Arlington Park Race 10: The Arlington Million Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Turf for 3 YO and Up



The spreadsheet, while a bit busy, attempts to bring some context to the foreign runners first. I prefer the information I have with the North American runners but if you use Google to your advantage you can find out lots more now about these foreigners than you could have even 5 years go. It's not easy to get comfortable comparing Racing Post Ratings but that's what you have instead of speed figs. You'll find a good writeup by DRF Foreign ace, Alan Shuback, here.

Of the foreign runners, Tazeez (pictured above), a 6 YO gelded son of Silver Hawk, bred in Kentucky, appears to be the most serious.

I've attached a key race video of Tazeez, the Prince of Wales Stakes that Debussy (IRE) also competed in. While tiring, Tazeez contracted and then extended his stride again gamely.



Never put the cart before the horse: before you consider the bet, build your own odds line or modify the track handicappers based on your own opinions. I say at this point don't worry about looking for value or prices, under or overlays, simply focus on who will win, who has a chance to be in the top four, and who will miss even on the exotic tickets. In my mind, this is a two horse race between Tazeez and Gio Ponti. Behind them is a group of horses (Rahystrada, Debussy, General Quarters and Just as Well) that have an opportunity to finish in Place/Show or 4th and then four horses I consider on the outer fringe. While I said don't worry about the bet at this point, it is important to understand you can't cover all the possibilities and a handicapper will often toss good horses just because you must be decisive. These four tosses(Marsh Side, Tajaaweed,Quite a Handful and Summit Surge (Ire)) you can only hope they don't hurt you but that's why they call this gambling.

It's been 8 races and 16 months since Tazeez won a race. He cuts back a quarter mile from his last effort and takes Lasix for the first time. I generally discount left handed versus right handed running, but it appears he runs stronger going right, the wrong way in this case. I guess you could say you can be right and be wrong (the daily double: bad puns and bad handicapping!) I'm a big fan of Trainer Gosden so I will discount this statistical blip.

Gio Ponti most likely will be the post time chalk and its not like he doesn't deserve it. The son of Tale of the Cat has one of the lowest turf Tomlinson ratings yet he is looking for his tenth turf win in 17 tries with over $2.6 MM earned on turf alone. Gio Ponti won this race a year ago on turf listed as good , ran good on turf listed as soft, and has run very well on firm grass. My handicap has Gio Ponti taking Place but there is at least a 40% chance he wins this one.

The next layer down seems to have lots of equal ability horses. I like Just As Well to come up for Show. Hasn't had a three digit BSF since last September and hasn't one since last year's Arlington Millions preview day. Trainer Sheppard puts one of the great turf riders up with J. Leparoux. Has been closing with nice late moves and in terms of value, I'd expect his post time odds to be third best or worse and I like him to sneak up and win at >6-1.

General Quarters may be the key to how the final order works out. Seems to like softer turf versus hard grass listed as firm. Always game, such a fighter, the softer the going, the more you must respect him. I will shade General Quarters from Show to 6th place based on this scant information.

I'm not terribly impressed by Debussy (Ire) but that's only based on the running lines. the second entry for Trainer Gosden gets lasix and I'm not sure what the expectation is.

Rahystrada is another price that has enough ability to shock for a win but most likely can surge as high as Place and as low as 6th. Best BSF (100) was on firm turf at Churchill last November. Ran in 50K claiming races this time last year but wona Grade III on Million Preview day and deserves respect.

If I truly believe the results will be fairly chalky for the first three spots, then the risk/reward of too many superfecta choices just isn't worth it for much more than a dime. I'll keep the bet reasonable here, work a trifecta and exacta as well based on my base handicap and let it roll.



I'll be back tomorrow with my Pick Three for Arlington that climaxes with the Arlington Million.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 14, 2010; The Saratoga Late Pick Three including the Grade I Sword Dancer

Ugh. Holding the Saturday Saratoga past performances in my hands made me glad I'm not driving three hundred miles today to see this. If it was a Wednesday or a Thursday this card would be tolerable, but a Saturday? If this is the side effect of extending the meet, then shrink it back down and start it the following Wednesday again. OK, enough whining, as horseplayers the one thing we do have is options and if I was betting real money I'd exercise my right to find a different card and a different sequence of races to bet on as this one neither thrills me nor gives me the feeling I can beat it with any sense of value in return. About the only thing that could make this card look any worse to me would be rain and races off the turf. Check the track conditions, the scratches and the weather before ever proceeding too far. I'm excited about tomorrow's card at Woodbine and I'm also excited when I think this is the last ugh Saturday of the meet at Saratoga so let's muddle through this and in the process I'll show you how I make the donuts when I'm trying to have a low risk/decent reward bet. Let's go!

Saratoga Race 9-10-11 Late Pick Three



Savvy handicappers I shelp around with tell me I shouldn't waste my time on the Saturday Pick Three when there is a tasty Pick Four to hunt at the same time. They are right but here at The Turk I cherry pick sequences I think I can win because hey, who the hell wants to read about my losing bets. As it is, this is a tough series of turf races, with the Grade I featuring a rather bland collection of fairly even horses and its sandwiched by two New York State restricted grass events with equally tough fields. As a horseplayer, that's an important mind set for all of us, don't play, especially chalk, if you don't think you at least have a reasonable chance of winning. There is always another track if you feel like you need to play.

I'm looking horizontally and vertically in this Pick Three with my goal being to construct a Pick Three for less than $20 and a Superfecta Ticket in the Sword Dancer for less than $30 dollars for a total layout of $50; Based on my choices being semi chalky, the return if I do everything right will be low $100's for both bets so the risk/reward is acceptable.

After reviewing the Pick Three I decided that I'd keep the bet even lower in the risk category by singling Expansion in the Sword Dancer. I give him a 40% chance to win and with a Pick Three of $12, I can live with the risk. Over-covering, or better yet, over selecting win choices in a vertical sequence is a mortal sin I strongly urge you to avoid. You will lose plenty of bets and kick yourself because the last toss you made won, but over the long haul you are better off. Personal choice I reckon and I won't preach. The first race I thought was the hardest and my first cut included eight horses. That's why they call it gambling.

And as far as the horizontal bet within the sequence, I'm thinking $1 Superfecta that will cost $29 but I also built a 10 Cent, $13 bet as well.



It's a 1 1/2 mile marathon of a race, and some of these runners will be advancing at the end and some will be shortening their strides and gutting for the wire. Taking a stand on the pace and then taking a shot at who will be coming and who will be going is always tricky, and I still believe the last good horse to make the best last move will win. I'm intrigued by Grassy and I'm wondering if this is the race. I'm also wondering what Al Khali will do against genuine Grade I horse flesh and what Telling still has in the tank.

I like this race alot as a betting race, and as I type I think a good price can possibly rising up to win. Hey, I'm just like you folks, I can be fickle at times. That fickleness tells me I'm right in not wagering much money, if any, on this card. Perhap's I'll invest my Pick Three money on a few win bets of my B-C horses with odds of >8-1. That's a defensive bet technique that has saved many a bad days.

Even on a down Sartaoga card day there are angles to play and fun to be had. Friends, have fun. Turk Out!