The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 18th year. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
While only a seven horse field, with one horse, Ashcroft, being a cut well below, the other six, wow: All six combine for $25.9 MM in career earnings, a Breeders' Cup Classic Winner, a Kentucky Derby Winner, a Blue Grass Winner and a Dubai World Cup. That's a pretty impressive field.
Let's take a deeper dive into the field and look at some video as well.
Oaklawn Handicap G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 19 April 2025
The Churchill Downs G1; 7f on slop; 3 May 2025
The "Hollywood" Gold Cup G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt; 26 May 2025
New Orleans Classic G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 22 March 2025
Blame G3; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 31 May 2025
Clark Handicap G2; 1 1/8 on Fast Dirt; 29 November 2024
Dubai World Cup G1; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt (LH)
So what to do with this? I'll be honest, I'm not sure without seeing the toteboard odds. I'm leaning towards Sierra Leone OVER First Mission and Skippylongstocking. 4 OVER 1 and 3, a $2 Dollar bet for $4.
Nothing exciting, just my thoughts of what might have value.
Welcome Friends to The Turk blog, where The Turk has been writing and ruminating about horse racing since 2008. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
The Turk isn't much of a Triple Crown handicapper. Truth be told, I'm primarily an older horse, running over a route of grass, type of fella. I like data. I like the data that a large field of turf veterans provides me. That said, I've really refined my dirt thinking to ignoring the early part of the year and concentrating on July-early November, the run up to the Breeders' Cup. The Stephen Foster is generally the first dirt race I handicap in a year and this year is no exception. Before we go too far, who was Stephen Foster, what is his enduring impact on our culture, and what makes the Stephen Foster an important race prospectively?
Stephen Foster (1826-1864) was an American songwriter known as the "father of American music." He composed over 200 songs, many of which remain popular, including "Oh! Susanna," "Camptown Races," "My Old Kentucky Home," "Old Folks at Home" (also known as "Swanee River"), and "Beautiful Dreamer." Foster's music became deeply ingrained in American culture, often reflecting themes of the antebellum South.
It's highly doubtful from the Turk's perspective that anyone under 40, and few above 40, would still consider Foster the father of American music, but at 58 I can say his songs were some of the first I learned to play and sing along to in school.
Foster's work has had a lasting impact on American music and culture. His songs have been performed and recorded by countless artists over the years, keeping his melodies and lyrics alive. However, his legacy is complex and controversial. Many of his songs reflect the racial attitudes and stereotypes of his time, which are now considered offensive (feel free to read the original lyrics to "My old Kentucky Home and you'll understand"). His work is an important part of American musical heritage, but it also serves as a reminder of the nation's complicated history with race and representation.
Some, not The Turk, have done a re-examination of his work and its place in contemporary culture. The Turk believes you should consider historical figures contextually, based on the norms of their era, not against our evolution as a culture, which has righteously moved forward in race relations and attitudes. Anyways, it's OK to understand Stephen Foster's impact on music, it's also important to understand some of his lyrics were racist, it was a more racist society then, and thank God we don't have racist lyrics anymore, just now someone get rid of Coldplay. I digress.
The Stephen Foster is a prestigious Grade I thoroughbred horse race held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Surprisingly, it was only inaugurated in 1982 and named in honor of the beforementioned Stephen Foster and his "My Old Kentucky Home" which associated with the Kentucky Derby. If you want to have a beef with Stephen Foster's song, ask why it took 4 years after the race was started before the original lyrics were changed.
Here are some key points about the history of The Stephen Foster:
- The race was first run on June 26, 1982, and quickly became a significant event in the American horse racing calendar.
- Initially, the race was classified as a Grade III event but was upgraded to Grade II status in 1988 and eventually to Grade I status in 2002, reflecting its increasing prestige and the quality of the competing horses.
- The Stephen Foster is run over a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the dirt track at Churchill Downs (except last year)
- It is open to horses aged four years and older and typically attracts top older horses from across the United States (relatively speaking!)
- Over the years, the race has been won by several notable horses. Some of the most famous winners include Black Tie Affair (1991), Awesome Again (1998), Victory Gallop (1999), and Curlin (2008), who have also made their mark in other major races.
OK, enough Turk ramblings, let's get it on! Let's look at some key videos.
17 May 2024; The Pimlico Special G3; 1 3/16 miles on Fast Dirt at PIM. Pyrenees/1, Kingsbarn/7 went for the exacta.
3 May 2024; The Alysheba Stakes G2; 1 1/16 miles over sloppy dirt; First Mission/2, Steal Sunshine/8, the Winner and an also ran.
1 June 2024; The Blame Stakes G3; 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at CD. Dreamlike/5 for Show. Blinkers on today.
20 April 2024; The Ben Ali Stakes G3; 1 3/16 over fast dirt; Kingsbarn/7, Happy American/3. beaten Place for heavy chalk and also ran.
20 April 2024; The Oaklawn Handicap G2; 1 1/8 over Fast Dirt; Skipylongstocking/9 dominant chalk performance.
What a field! Its so rare that I say that these days but it is a very impressive group collected together.
I could make a case for any of First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Disarm or Kingsbarn to win. In doing so, I just discounted 4 straight winner Pyrenees who I think is tactically too slow, and mildly Dreamlike, who goes with Blinkers on for Pletcher today (18% Blinkers winner 65 starts). I only discount Dreamlike because of consistency but I think is very worth a look at fair odds north of 9-1.
I've rambled so long I'm going to actually keep the handicap very brief. Looking at the weather, expect a fast track. You can find track conditions and scratches and changes here.
First Mission should win this race. 7 of 8 lifetime exacta, 6 of 7 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 exacta at the distance, back to back dominant wins and on Cox home turf where he's training very sharp. I will put him no higher than Place because I want value. I like Disarm or Dreamlike in a deep stretch run to take the wire with both Skippylongstocking and First Mission covered in Place
As you can see, this is more of a betting strategy than just going with my base handicap. If you are new to reading me, my chart is what I call the Base Handicap. It's what should happen. "Should" is boring and doesn't cover your losses over time. My fair odds chart identified Disarm as running past his morning line. I like the late speed and my gamble is a return to form.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap Turf Races and develop exacta bets. There was a time when I handicapped exclusively on the dirt, but times change, as do interests. I like big fields and horses with a lot of data. Today's Preakness offers neither, with the smallest field since the early 80's at seven, and the favorite, Kentucky Derby winner Mage, starting his fifth race.
I went to the Preakness Stakes just once, ten years ago. It was cold and rained. The Goo Goo Dolls, from Western New York just like The Turk, played in the infield. My mother and sister were in the same hotel as me without any pre planning. Trips to see graded stakes are some of the most relaxing vacations I've ever taken. I sit and contemplate the horses and time stands still. I don't believe in thinking about retirement before you actually retire, because as another famous Western New Yorker but Chicago native Marv Levy once said, once you start thinking about retirement, you're already retired, but that said, if I day dream a bit about it, I find my thoughts drifting to lazy days at the track. Last memory of Preakness 138? I stood in the valet line with Pitbull after the event. He was surrounded by women and dripped suave. La Vida Loca, DJ.
Mage is deserving of the top spot, especially with less pressure from First Mission who scratched on Black Eyed Susan Friday. At a seven horse field, this just isn't that fun a betting race unless chaos ensues. I think we can make a case or two for that.
I think National Treasure has a solid chance to win. Good Early speed and strong late speed, from the one post, with blinkers on (Baffert 17%), could take and hold the lead wire to wire. I have a soft spot for well bred Quality Road's.
Red Route One will be flying near the end but should be lagging out of the 5th post.
Blazing Sevens has been training very sharply for Chad Brown and also possess a strong late step.
Perform, from the six spot, is a Good Magic colt like Blazing Sevens, and has good tactical speed but overall slower than most. Don't expect the pace to favor a win but value in the place or Exotic spots possible.
As we are gambling, I'm going to put National Treasure and Red Route One in the win spot, with National Treasure, Mage, Red Route One, Blazing Sevens and Perform in Place; a $2 Bet of 1,5 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 for $16 bucks. If Mage wins I will perform a magic trick of making a big pile of dollars disappear. Covering Mage in the win spot adds $8 to the bet, for $24 investment. That doesn't work.
