Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on older horses running over a route of grass, with exacta bet constructions. I choose not to play a rather soggy day our East, and while I was interested in The Bowling Green at Saratoga, my concern for the turf conditions made up my mind for me. Del Mar's Eddie Reed G2 is an interesting nine horse field. My first time through the PP's and I didn't have a single horse that I thought deserved chalk or even a Turk rating of A. 700 plus handicaps blogged over 15 years and I don't remember a Grade 2 I was this torn on. It's not that the field is bereft of good horses, and in fact Turk favorites Masteroffoxhounds and Dicey Mo Chara are in the field, just little excited me about current form of any of the runners. We'll get to that. I also don't want to sound like I'm complaining in any way, this is what I like: Big Field, Light Chalk, Chaos. All those things can equal big rewards.
Experience helps. I approach every race with the same general mindset and I handicap in a very consistent manner. A review of Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Recency, J/T stats, Track, Surface and Pace. My red ink squiggles mean something to me, may not mean anything to you, but that's fine. I never look at Morning Lines before settling on my handicap. I found that they biased me, especially in my published handicaps. I've matured as a handicapper to never let someone else's opinion to influence me. I've been handicapping for over 35 years, I'm at the peak of my game, and it's this mindset that helps me identify underlays and overlays. The problem with bet construction this far in advance of the race is the lack of live odds to fine tune my thinking. I do that, I'm just sensitive to changing my bets radically from what I blog. A bald, middle aged nerd is nothing without credibility.
Speaking of Saratoga, Turk will be in the (club)house next Saturday. It's been a loonnng time. Let's get after it.
The Eddie Reed G2; 1 1/8 Miles over Turf for 3 YO and Up.
Many runners here enter off The G1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita 2 months earlier.
Mackinnon last time out a beaten 4th at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf OC $80K 3 BEL 4 July.
Dicey Mo Chara, Masterofforhounds and Gold Phoenix ran in a pace slog Charles Whittingham G2 at 1 1./4 Miles at Santa Anita 8 April 2023. Gold Phoenix came back 29 May in the Shoemaker Mile and ran poorly cutting back two panels. Dicey Mo Chara has run back twice, running three graded stakes in a 6 week period. Masteroffoxhounds took a break to freshen and has been working sharply for D'Amato since late June.
There was a time last year when I thought Count Again at 7 YO was the best Turf Miler in the US. First race since last year's Shoemaker Mile. What form? Who knows what the 8 YO has left. Trainer D'Amato has taken 100 horses over the past year back from a +180 day layoff and has won 21 times.
D'Amato has four going in this race. Does anyone think that's healthy for racing?
So what top do with this?
I'm going to $2 Exacta wheel Mackinnon OVER Dicey Mo Chara, Masteroffoxhounds, Cabo Spirit, Count Again and possibly Handy Dandy or Balnikhov, either a $10 or $12 dollar bet that should pop a good payout. It's far from an iron pipe lock, but this is gambling. I like Doug O'Neill running the 4 YO son of American Pharoah back in under four weeks for his 2nd off a long layoff. I like his early speed and I think returning to firm turf may expose a new level of top speed at the end. Speculative.
A $2 Win bet on Handy Dandy isn't out the question either. 5 of 6 Win/Place at Del Mar, 8 of 13 W/P over Turf. Running back 3 weeks after a solid Allowance Mile win. Value.
Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. I've been a handicapper since 1986 and a Horse Racing Blogger since 2008 with a general specialization of older horses running across a route of grass with exacta bet constructions. I've been flexing my turf sprint chops over the last few weeks for a change of pace as I like to make sure I don't ignore my handicapping on these sort of races. I've been handicapping for a long time, and my approach to how I analyze a race has been refined over a long period of time. My influences are pretty standard for handicappers of my generation: Tom Ainslie, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz. My own derivative method is to break down these races for Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Form and Work, Jockey and Jockey/Trainer stats. I video handicap when I have time and I feel like I need more context. I block and I tackle. What I don't do is handicap looking at the Morning Line, nor do I read articles about the races or the runners before I handicap. I try to leave other's bias out of my analysis and only deal with my own inherent biases.
Woodbine is the closest major track to The Turk's home base of Western New York. I had the pleasure of going to the Fort Erie Race Track last week, the first time since COVID ended. I learned to play sprints by playing Fort Erie ad nauseum when I was younger. It's a wonderful track with an uncertain future.
Today's 7f, 1 turn Connaught Cup Stakes G2 at Woodbine has a nice 10 horse field with a 9 YO favorite, Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere, to me sets up a great chance to bet against the old veteran son of The Factor.
Let's get after it!
Connaught Cup G2: WO 7f on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up
Years ago when I stopped handicapping with any foreknowledge of the Morning Lines, I learned that I was able to spot under and overlays easier. That said, I had to develop my ability to handicap and set my own fair lines. In today's race War Bomber (Ire) jumped off the page to me as an overlay. Let's take a look at his last time out on the Canada Day holiday, the 1 1/8 mile Dominion Day G3 on fake dirt.
Cutting back will only help, as the blistering 1:11 3/4 mile pace he's up for, just not much beyond that. Good early speed, should be forwardly placed. 20-1 Morning Line, 3 wins in five WO starts, 3 wins in 7 turf starts, winless in two 2023 starts. I like for a win bet at the right price. Jock Civaci jumps to Lucky Score, so he's most likely skeptical too!
Lucky Score and Dream for Tomorrow will be respected by the bettors. Lucky Score is moving up a furlong in distance (unraced previously a 7f) but is 4 of 6 Win/Place at WO and over turf and hit triple digit Beyer last time out, also on Canada Day, the Grade 2 Highlander, 6f over grass.
That was a hell of a ride by Civaci to win at the wire at $14.30. Dreams for Tomorrow has 25% winner Patrick Husband, up, for McGaughey who ships in. The 6 YO is cutting back 1f. Should be tactical and within a few lengths of the lead at top of stretch and possesses excellent closing speed from there.
Bound for Nowhere is my kind of horse. The 9 YO won a G2 last year here at Woodbine but is off to a slow start in 2023. Adding distance from past two race 5.5f affairs. Dangerous, but I'm skeptical.
It's a deep race. Churchtown cuts back 1f and is starting off an 80 day layoff, but training sharply at WO since mid June. Attfield wins 20% of stake races but has only had 2 turf sprints over a rolling year, of which he has yet to win. 5 of 6 Win/Place over Turf, 2 of 2 Win/Place at WO.
My last serious consideration is Dream Shake, only second turf start, a surface he is a maiden on. Ran and won a 7f fake dirt OC50K on 2 July. Fascinating, but I like to see some success first.
So what am I doing with all this? A win bet for War Bomber (Ire) as long as I'm >8-1. My exacta will be Lucky Score wheeled with War Bomber,Dreams of Tomorrow, Churchtown and Dream Shake. I'm ignoring Bound for Nowhere at my own peril, I just don't like anywhere near 8-5
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, usually focusing on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. I said normally because today I'm handicapping the Jersey Short Pick Six (20 cent minimum), which incorporates The G3 Molly Pitcher, The G1T United Nations and the G1 Haskell. There was a time when this blog focused on Superfecta Betting but I've never been much of a horizontal bettor. It's not that I can't pick winners, it's part of the job description, but I never wanted to invest the time or the gambling capital needed. As the Turk nears retirement, I can see a day coming in my future where I get back to handicapping whole cards for mental exercise and relaxation, and I do think horizontals will be my thing as I spend full days in Hawaiian shirts without a care in the world. That's if the sport survives, but that's another rant for another day,
Full disclosure, I'm not betting my Pick 6, it's purely a mental exercise for me right now. I'll most likely paly most of these races as Win Bet or Exacta, but the Pick 6 betting strategy I don't have enough time into thinking about and I will revisit it another day. If you are into the horizontals, today may be the day to focus on the $500,000 guaranteed Pick 4 Race 9-12 or the $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 5, Race 10-14.
Let's get after it!
Monmouth Park: Races 8-13 P6
In race 8, I have Late Speed with Proxy/6 and Early Speed with Whelen Springs/7. I see them as the class of this race, and they checked all my boxes for class, recent form, performance.
If I'm still alive after Race 8 (which is not a given!), I go into two races that I plan to single. In Race 9, I went seven deep with potential win candidates but I'm singling Fore Harp/9 with Paco Lopez (29% MTh) up. slight cut back, great recent form cycle, Trainer/Jock solid.
I've played risky and lose, and if I'm still alive (it's gambling but...) in Race 10, the G3 Molly Pitcher I'm singling Search Results/4. Brown/Rosario 20% this rolling year , Brown's 34% at Monmouth, 30% off the 40 ish day layoff, and just great form.
In the Grade 1 United Nations, it's hard not to root for Red Knight. The 9 YO has a G1 and G3 win this year and placed in a G2. Was a bit fractious in the gate in the Manhattan last time out. I expect him to be post time favorite which is wild, but I'm covering some value with him who I really like, Catnip/3 and Planetario (Brz)/6.Catnip is very intriguing, training well, winner in G3 Monmouth last time out.
In the Haskell I'm not looking towards the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage. Next time out I will like him more, but I'd like to see how he bounces back. I really like Salute the Stars/3; Winner last time out here, improving and value. Geaux Rocket Ride/1, Tapit Trice/5, Extra Anejo/7 and Arabian Knight/8 are all solid and to me, a cut above the rest. Great betting races in this Pick 6. I don't believe I'm alive in this thing, but we solider on!
Finally, in Race 13, Boston Princess/2, Cecile/7 and Fortineno (Ire)/9 are my choices as best of the field.
Wasn't a great post, I think I'm burned out from such compelling fields and heavy handicapping. I'll unwind it tomorrow.
