The Nomination Is In: The Met Mile for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner

Welcome to the 2012 Metropolitan Handicap, better known as the Met Mile. Before I go to far, I'd like to thank The Thorofan for inviting the Ol' Turk to handicap for the esteemed Handicappers Corner.

For those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, I gravitated to them because their stated goals appealed to me:

Retain and enrich existing fans.

Seek out and attract new fans including those who are unable for physical or other limitations have not yet had the opportunity.

Give each fan, regardless of involvement, a voice to the industry regarding their interests in the betterment of the sport.

Hard to argue with that, and I am happy to promote an organization that I am a proud member of.

The Met Mile is part of my Memorial Day tradition. I honor our American War dead in the morning, gather with family in the afternoon, and we make this race part of the late afternoon activities. As a horse racing fan, and a person trying to promote the sport, I always try to make the races part of our family traditions, showing my love for the sport to the nieces, nephews, friends and future thorofans.

So with that build up, I'll be honest, seeing a six horse field doesn't thrill me. Superfecta is out, and if there is a scratch, ugh, it will be something similar to the Winchester, embedded below. As a horse racing fan I'll enjoy seeing some of my favorite horses contest this prestigious race, but as a bettor, I'd generally pass on a six horse field.

With a favorite that will be less than 2-1 and perhaps a post time chalk at 8-5, what do we do with this, how do we plan? Looking at the wager menu, Exacta, Trifecta and the Double are the bets de jour, and I think I'll target a value exacta. A value exacta Turk? Yes, we are going to toss the presumptive chalk and piece together no more than 4 combinations, or $8 worth of $2 exactas on the hunt for a will pay that at least doubles our investment or a bet that pays out greater than $16.

My initial read of the six horse field is that the quality of horses and the competitiveness of this race is high, with 5 of 6 runners currently millionaires. You know, many eleven horse fields have the same or fewer quality runners as this group, but it's those five other horses that help to keep the prices slightly more attractive. Nothing like a Duke of Mischief, a Mucho Macho Man or a Wilburn to drive an 8-5 back to 3-1.

I find it helpful to assess current form first. To do that I like to visual handicap, a combination of trip handicapping and visual appearance of the horses, especially in the last 1/8 of a mile and the gallop out. You Tube is a great resource for this sort of thing, even if sometimes you may have to hunt an peck a bit to find what you are looking for. I've gathered some of the key races that I think will help me decoded today's field.

2012 Affirmed Success Stakes Restricted NY STATE 7f


2012 Carter Handicap 7f


2012 Churchill Downs 7f



2012 Winchester 1 Mile



2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile






There are a few things not to like about the 2011 Preakness Stakes Winner, Shackleford; Romans and Velazquez are winless together over past year, Velazquez is up in place of regular pilot Castanon, Velazquez is only a 7% winner at Belmont right now. Continuing to pile on, the horse is winless at the distance, winless at Belmont, and has only one win, his last in the Churchill Downs since the Preakness. All that said, I don't believe he'll be the bettors chalk and I'm installing him as my chalk and my single in the great exacta value hunt. I got the negatives out of the way, on the positives side of the ledger, a gutty stretch run in his last race and a decent enough effort in the Carter Handicap.

I am a big Jackson Bend fan; 19 of 25 in the money, 6 of last 7 races in triple digit Beyers. The 5 YO son of Hear No Evil has only one win in five tries at the distance, winless in two starts at Belmont, 18 of 22 in the money on fast dirt.

I expect the bettor's will reward Caleb's Posse with the chalk; Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile reigning champ, 2011 King's Bishop winner, with last two races lost by a combined neck and nose. Trainer Von Hemel, with Maragh up, combine for 43% winners. Trainer Von Hemel has a 31% win rate in graded stakes. I think the race sets up perfect for him, as he'll be off the lead and will have at least three targets to shoot for. I suspect he'll be wide out of the turn and he'll make his run there.

In the "one of these things is not like the other" category, Saginaw makes a big class jump up to enter this race. Trainer David Jacobson felt pretty good about his chances and runs him back on eleven days rest after winning the NY State restricted Affirmed Success Stakes. The six year old gelding has three wins at Belmont and is 12 of 13 in the money at the distance and 11 of 15 in the money on fast dirt.

It doesn't seem possible that Caixa Eletronica is seven years old, but he is, and he makes a whopping 53 start in this race and is 35 of 52 in the money, with 7 wins in his last 16 starts. A winner off the pace in the Charles Town Classic last time out, his best efforts come right off the pace, but it will be an almost career best for him to strike a win against this group and even Place seems unlikely. I think I found my value, now he has to do the work.

Trainer Mott's To Honor and Serve is a fine horse, winner of the Winchester last time out. He's 2 of 2 at Belmont and 3 of 3 at one mile and 10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt. All that said, I'm lukewarm on him. Mott and Lezcano do win 32% of the time together at Belmont.

There is quite a bit to like about To Honor and Serve and I wouldn't be surprised if he won this race. I'm more impressed by the quality of the field now since I went a bit deeper on the analysis, but you can't cover everybody.

Today's handicapping and betting exercise is really more about the bet construction than the handicap. I made a decision early on to bet Exacta and I made a decision to slot the bettors chalk no higher than Place. I'll bet no more than $6 to $8 dollars making straight Exacta Bets that single my chalk, Shackleford, and then cover everyone with the current exception of To Honor and Serve. Does that mean I like Saginaw more than To Honor and Serve? No, but this isn't a popularity contest, we are betting real money and I'm willing to risk $8 to make $16 or more and Saginaw represents that chance more than To Honor and Serve. Maybe the better argument is should I cover To Honor and Serve to Place and drop Caleb's Posse, especially if 8-5, and the answer is maybe.

You can't cover everyone friends; It's not good money management to lose bets, we can all agree on that, but its also not good money management to risk alot of capital on a small return, made smaller because you threw in an extra horse. If you have to do that, take more time becoming a better handicapper and save your capital for when you are ready.

I know it's a smallish field, made possibly smaller if Saginaw runs on the 27th as is possible, so gather your family around the TV at race time and try and make the race, perhaps not this particular edition of the race, a real family tradition like I have in mine. That's the true spirit of The Thorofan, bringing fans back.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 28 August 2011: Travers Day Pick Six

Which makes you look thinner, horizontal or vertical stripes? The Ol' Turk doesn't have a clue about fashion but he knows that his horizontal handicapping and betting on the Travers Stakes Pick Six card made him a whole lot phatter in wallet than his "on a diet" vertical bet Pick Six effort.

The handicaps utilized my "layer handicapping" approach and the bets followed my handicaps without deviation. I did my thinking pre-race and that allowed me to sit back, not feel that sense of panic that can arise as post time approaches, and I didn't over think the races. Regardless of the surface I focus squarely on current form, past three race run lines, over time history on surface/at distance/at course, and where and against whom the animal has been running against. On turf I place great emphasis on late turn of foot.

I only feel comfortable talking about how I go about my handicapping. I don't like to read about the races I'm handicapping until after I've completed my handicapping, as I prefer to avoid the hype and bias of the writer whose income is derived from entertaining readers and not necessarily from tossing contestants, some of whom have a better story to tell than a race to run.

A factor I really discount in comparison to contemporaries who I talk shop with is pace. I take into account where each horse will most likely be at the break and then at the top of the stretch, but I do it in broadstrokes and seldom do I predict a winner on the likely pace scenario. OK Turk, WTF does all that mean? It just means I have my own, not that complicated manner of slotting the horses into expected finish. The beauty of handicapping is there is an infinite number of ways to approach the problem but the results are the results and they can be arrived at from many different roads.

Handicapping and betting are two VERY different things. Some do one well and do OK, some do neither well and some get both ends right. Forget what they are doing and ask yourself what you are doing right and wrong. Ripping up the tickets and not taking the time to do a handicapping autopsy is a huge mistake. If you take anything away from my ramblings each each, do this step and you'll see your skills increase.

I do completely ignore morning lines before I handicap and as I said, I do my best to not read about the races I'm handicapping. I treat each race with a fresh mind and no preconceived notions. Track handicappers are pretty sharp folks, some sharper than others, but pretty sharp nonetheless. I like to see where I have runners in relation to the track handicapper. What that does for me is give me feedback, something I lack in the vacuum of kitchen table 'capping. It took me years to believe in myself when I disagreed with the track handicapper. It's those differences of opinion that often lead to my best scores, the contrarian viewpoint.

Let's review and then I'll babble some more.



My list of HITS would be placing Daveron high in the Ballston Spa, not having Sassy Image to high on my board, not betting a Trifecta in the Ballerina, even if I did leave a profit on the table, having Caleb's Posse and Uncle Mo in the exacta that drove my Superfecta and having Justin Phillips higher than other bettors. On my MISSES list would be not valuing Hot Summer and over rating the chances of Precious Soul in the Victory Ride, consistently missing on Stay Thirsty, but my Travers Coil/Shackleford placings was a bust and the Pick Six in general was just a mess.

I put about $540 dollars of capital on table yesterday. I would not have hit that Pick Six if I invested all $540 on the bet or double that. I think the bet is the "bridge too far" for the average bettor and the Pick 3 and 4 are much more achievable targets. That said, the cards always offer juicy exotics that can be hit if you layer the horses properly and you build good bets. I didn't make $6 for every dollar I bet yesterday by just having good handicaps, it was sound betting practices that you learn over time. I felt comfortable that I had the exactas and then I went five and six deep for spots Place and Show and then slimmed back for fourth. That bet structure was what I used twice yesterday and I went as exactly deep as I had color coded pre race.

I hope some of what I'm saying helps someone out there sharpen their own skills. My methods came from reading the works of Brad Free, Steve Crist, Andy Beyer, Tom Ainsile and Steve Davidowitz. I enjoy the articles in American Turf Monthly as well, and I take all this and I have my own, derivative methods. I call them derivative because nothing I do I would call original.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: June 25, 2011: The Cornhusker Handicap Day Late Pick 4 at Prairie Meadows

The future of horseracing? Perhaps that's a bit too dour a thought, but micro festivals like this weekend at Prairie Meadows, where racino kickbacks drummed up $1.0 MM in purse money, can attract nice fields, good crowds and handle.

We have a fast dirt track, with tight corners and fun racing under the lights and this Turk is thinking ahead that next year he'll venture back to corn country for these two days of racing. Grade III events? I've seen weaker Grade I's already this year.

By the way, that fine looking horse in the neon green and purple dot silks of RNB Racing is Shadowbdancing, last year's winner of the previous Grade 2 Cornhusker Handicap and the Place horse from 2009's edition.

Let's get after it!

Prairie Meadows Race 7-8-9-10



While I built a Pick Four Bet, the races themselves I think will be quite interesting, as there are money magnets in every race and a few second tier runners at longer prices looking to knock their blocks off. Hard not to like!

Race 7 may be the weakest of the bunch, a six horse Iowa Oaks. Daisy Devine is the heavyweight contender here; far from unbeatable but pretty solid, with a Grade 2 Fairgrounds Oaks win.

Little Miss Holly will loom at something greater than 3-1; training sharply at CD for trainer Margolis and a last race winner.

Two that intrigue me are Hearts on Fire and All about Allie. Donnie von Hemel's Hearts on Fire is 5 of 5 in the money on Fast dirt, 2 of 2 in the money at the distance and has placed at PrM. 2nd effort off a 45 day layoff. All About Allie is an Arkansas bred Sanders Brothers home bred and trained who has run well at PrM and while lacking class, seems to be gutty. Only two tosses from the field that is only lacking quantity not quality.

In the Iowa Derby we have two Triple Crown nominees and the Preakness Stakes Show horse ready to rumble. I think the class of Astrology and Caleb's Posse will win the day and its a coin toss for me which one wins it.

In the second tier is a Zayat Stable runner for trainer Bob Baffert, Prayers for Relief. He's a lightly raced, off the pace late runner trying dirt for the first time and I think he'll gain name recognition as the year goes on, just not here, but Baffert didn't bring him to lose so you have no choice but take notice and slot him in the money.

Dreaminofthewin may be a bit of a stretch but this is gambling after all. Irish Lion and Chosen Miracle both have the potential to get up for show money as well, and Chosen Miracle is stretching out to a distance his pedigree suggests is just right.

The main event is a strong and deep field for a racino Grade 3 event. Awesome Gem is the headliner. The West Point Thoroughbreds runner has a last race best 101 Beyer. Surprisingly consistent ant in his 8th year but is 0 of 9 at the distance and always more interested in place and show than win. I'm hoping he draws lots of money his way as I'll be looking in a different direction.

The Michael Maker runner Headache and the Michael Biehler runner Stachys both have my attention. Headache is 12 of 15 in the money on fast dirt and comes in off a 1 1/16 CD N3X win. Stachys has won at PrM and is consistent and fast off the pace.

It Happened Again is a former claimer running for Steve Asmussen with Mike Smith, up. That will do something for your position on the tote board! The five year old is very capable and this is his second effort off a long layoff. Beware.

I like Alexis Barba's Victory Pete. Only the 6 year olds second dirt effort and Bejarano goes up here.

The races are later in the day so check the scratches and changes and the weather to make sure nothing impacts your handicapping. This should be a fun night and I hope you approach it as such, I think racing would do well to have more prime time Saturday night racing shows.

Enjoy the day, have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 19, 2011; The Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four including the Azeri and the Rebel

That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.

The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.

What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.

Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011







We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?

Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.

Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Homework Session Part 1

The Turk will be handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner on Breeders's Cup Saturday and starting today I'm going to review the contenders, try to sort out the pretenders, and make some sense out of what will surely be a heavily hyped race for several horses, namely Uncle Mo, Boys of Tosconova and Jaycinto.

While we have to wait a spell still to see the final entries, the Turk is going to use available resources here on the internet-thingy to develop a cursory knowledge of the potential field. I'm not sure about you, but anytime a horse starts to become preordained as the heavy chalk I start thinking contrarian: I'm thinking about good prices and value, and if forced to embrace chalk, who will fill out an exotic ticket with the favored equine. Let's get after it!


Another Silver Oak: Three Starts with one win and one show for the son of Bluegrass Cat out of Off the Richter and trained by Todd Pletcher for Owner Repole Stable. His last start was last of eight in the Grade III Sapling Stakes at Monmouth with the video and details here.

At the Grade II Sanford Stakes at Saratoga on July 25th he ran a close third to Maybesomaybenot.



Astrology: Trainer Steve Asmussen conditions this horse for Stonestreet Stables, a son of A.P. Indy out of Quiet Eclipse. Taking a Show and a Win in non graded stakes action in Saratoga, his last effort was a Show from the chalk spot in Garden State Stakes, beaten by Sweet Ducky and Curinello, two others we'll keep our Turkish eyes on.

The Boys of Tosconova: Dick Dutrow trained, this son of Officer out of Little Bonnet maybe lacking in a Class match-up, but a win at Saratoga in the Grade I Hopeful, a win at Belmont, and a Place in the Grade II Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs makes him one of the major contenders. Stay Thirsty and Wine Police have appeared on some lists as expected runners and you'll watch Boys of Tosconova with R. Dominguez taunt them as he cruises by.







That last race, his Maiden smashing race at Belmont, was ultra dominant, but I had to ask myself, who is Officer? A bit about the sire here.

Caleb's Posse: Trainer Donnie K. Von Hemel campaigns the son of Posse out of Abbey's Miss. let's just start out with, who is Posse? NY State fans should know. Next up, who is Donnie Von Hemel? We have a Show finish in the Grade III Arlington Park Washington Futurity to look at him in and he raced at Keeneland on October 8th as well.



OK, pencils down for now. Next Up: Factum, Jaycinto, J.B.'s Thunder and JP's Gusto.

Have Fun, Turk Out!