The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label The Woodbine Mile. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Woodbine Mile. Show all posts
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.
Today I almost added to my resume: Magician. How to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money! Luckily I didn't, but it's a good reminder to myself not to over bet. I've been playing Kentucky Downs for the past several weeks and I got a but caught up with high risk/high reward exactas. When you watch the closing kick of Notable Speech (GB) below in yesterday's Woodbine Mile you will realize that he was not just chalk, but heavy chalk, odds on favorite, nearly unbeatable in this field, barring a bad trip. The brilliant Buick, up, delivered on a classic trip just off the lead before taking it wide and down the straight after the final of two tight turns on the inner turf.
The handicap was fine. I handed out an A+ on Notable Speech (GB), a rare rating for me to give. I had the order of finish well enough to get a Trifecta, not a chance on the Superfecta with Naptown, 98-1 Naptown, just nipping One Stripe (SAf). Speaking of the South African, use the video to find the next bet sneaky potentials. He closed well from back of the pack in his first NA start.
The right bet was to single Notable Speech (GB) and put some value in the Place spot. It's a lesson I've learned many times, and forgotten just as often. As much as I want to beat chalk (remember they lose ~60% of the time), there is chalk and then there is chalk, and Notable Speech is the later.
13 September 2025: The Woodbine Mile G1; 1 Mile on firm inner turf.
Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing Handicaps and Exacta Bet Construction. Everyone needs a POV and that's mine.
Woodbine is about 70 miles from my house, just across the Canadian border and up the QEW. It's one of my favorite tracks and I especially love days like today's Woodbine Mile Day, a Win and You're In Breeders' Cup event and a premier Grade 1. Today's is a bit unusual as they are racing on the inner turf as the E.P. Taylor Turf course gets some work done on it. The race starts just after the final of two turns (also different) so the horses have much of the straight to angle for first turn positioning. I'm looking at Closers still to do well, but decent tactical speed to not be too far back coming into and out of the tight turns.
Let's take a look at some video:
2 August 2025; WO; The Niagara Stakes $120K; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf, Outer.
17 August 2025; Deauville (Fr); Prix Jacques Le Marois G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Soft" Turf
As we start to prep for Breeders' Cup, an explanations of Turf Classifications from Europe is in order:
Firm (Fm): The hardest ground type, usually seen in summer when there is little to no rain.
Good to Firm (GF): Slightly softer than Firm, thanks to light rain or watering.
Good (Gd): Considered the most balanced and fair ground condition, suitable for most horses.
Good to Soft (GS): Softer ground with more moisture, common in early spring or late autumn.
Soft (Sft): Wet ground that significantly slows horses, requiring stamina.
Heavy (Hy): The wettest, toughest ground where only the most resilient horses perform well.
Before we explain all of them in depth, note that it’s possible to have two types of ground in one description.
For example, Good to Soft, Soft in places. This means that the track is mainly Good to Soft, but there are places of Soft ground along the way.
The most important factor to remember is the more it rains the softer the ground.
Firm (Fm) Ground
If we had no rain, the ground would be classed Firm. This isn’t as common as it once was because the racecourses now water their course to keep the ground safe. Basically, take the impact out of the ground so that less injuries occur. You will normally get this type of ground in the summer months. Firm ground means horses can run faster, and that’s usually when track records are set.
Good to Firm (GF)
After Firm ground, we have Good to Firm. This is when we’ve had enough rain (or watering) to take most of the firmness out of the ground but it’s still on the fast side. This is a lot more common than Firm ground because racecourses water the ground, especially if there is no rain forecast.
From a betting angle, understanding the meaning of Good to Firm can highlight value. Some horses bounce off this surface and run personal bests, while others find it too quick. Looking at a horse’s past records on GF going can often reveal profitable patterns overlooked by casual punters.
Good (Gd)
This is when we’ve had enough rain to take all of the firmness out of the ground. It’s fair to say that this is the best type of ground, and usually the type of ground that suits most horses. It’s easy to run on for horses and produces big fields because it’s the fairest type of ground. Of course, you may have horses who like really Soft ground. However, they could still race on Good ground.
In comparison to Firm ground where they would have to withdraw. Good ground is the most common type of ground at all racecourses – it’s just the perfect ground to race on.
Good to Soft (GS)
Next up is Good to Soft Ground. This is simply Good ground that is holding more water. It’s as simple as that.
We usually get this type of ground at the start and towards the end of the jumps and flat seasons (out-of-season ground usually). It would suit the majority of horses. The only horses that struggle with this are those that run better on firm ground.
Soft (Sft)
This is when we’ve had rain and it’s softened the ground, but the track can take more. Soft ground is very common in the jumps season, when we get more wet weather and it takes longer to dry out.
Horses will find this ground a lot harder to run on than Good ground, and the races will be much slower because of that. There are however, horses that excel on soft ground, and it would suit them better than racing on Good ground.
Heavy (Hy)
Heavy ground is the toughest test a horse can face – deep, energy-sapping conditions demand extreme stamina and endurance. Races on Heavy ground are often significantly slower, favoring strong-staying horses over speed-focused runners.
4 January 2025; Kenilworth (SAf); King's Plate G1 (One Stripe); 1 Mile on Yielding Turf
2 August 2025; SAR; The Fourstar Dave G1; 1 Mile on Inner Firm Turf
16 August 2025; WO; The King Edward G2; 1 Mile on Outer Firm Turf
Timeform Early/Late US PACE:
Exacta History:
Tomlinson Comparison
Dollars Per Start/Class Evaluation
So what to do with all of this?
13 September 2025; The Woodbine Mile G1; 1 Mile Firm (?) Inner Turf
It's hard not to like Notable Speech (GB), with Appleby Conditioning and Buick, Up. 9 straight Grade 1 attempts, including a Show Finish as the Chalk in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile. I like that he's here in North America and getting a tune up start.
Gas Me Up with Prat Up for Conditioner Attard comes in off a win in the tune-up for this race, the Grade 2 King Edward. That was run on the outer turf at one turn which adds a layer of complication to the analysis. His last start on the inner turf was in June and he was terrible as the chalk.
My four potential exacta candidates have little separation amongst them. I do like Win for the Money as potentially a winner here. Local jock Husbands is up for local trainer M. Casse. Only 1 win in 5 starts at the distance, 5 of 12 in turf exactas, 1 win at WO but also no exacta finishes in 3 tries in 2025. Last two efforts at Saratoga on the inner turf were sneaky good, tow show finishes against quality. Last year's winner looking for repeat.
One Stripe (SAf) is interesting for Trainer Motion with J. Velazquez, up. I have a general bias against Grade 1 SAf horses until they do something in NA. Motion however is good at this: 29% on 21 tries with 1stNA, 20% on 35 tries 1st Time Training, and he's 22% in 58 tries off a long layoff, in this case 16 March 2025. I'll cover Place but not the win. I really think he's out of exacta but dangerous.
My Boy Prince for Casse has big early speed but I'm not a fan of it here. Last time out in Fourstar Dave on inner turf he broke from 2 post and faded badly. No wins in 5 tries at distance, only 2 lifetime turf wins. 3 of 4 in the exactas at WO. Perhaps that early speed gives him edge to hold on with. Also dangerous.
Wyoming Bill with Dettori up goes back to blinkers-on. No wins in 2 tries at the distance and only 1 win in 5 turf starts. Does have a win against OC$50k crowd on this inner turf at 1 mile in June. Impressive in the King Edward.
Leaning two ways on the bet:
$2 Exacta 2-9 OVER 2-9-8-3-5-6 for $20
OR
$2 Exacta 2-9-8 OVER 2-9-8-3-5-6 for $30
I'm generally looking to beat the chalk but Notable Speech is clearly the class here and it's his race to lose.
Woodbine is a pretty short drive from the Turk's home, just up the QEW from where I live in Niagara Falls, NY. This premier turf race, The Woodbine Mile, shifted off of dirt in 1997 to the Taylor Turf Course, a top shelf route of grass. Is it the premier September race on the stakes calendar? I think it is although Jockey Gold Cup Day may have more total meat on the bone, and Kentucky Downs Turf Cup has its own special attractions.
I Was there and got to see one of my favorites, Rahy's Attorney win at a big price in 2008. The average win bet has paid $9.87 over the past 15 editions. I'm not sure if today isn't chalky, but there are some solid live and long candidates to choose from. I think I'll be playing exactas unless at the end of typing this analysis up I determine that the win bet risk is more appropriate to my thinking. Sometimes Win or Win-Place is the right answer if you can't assemble an exacta ticket that makes sense at the right investment level. I've been guilty too many times of chasing exactas and overpaying where a simple win bet would have been a fine return. If your a long term player who thinks about ROI over the course of a year or multi year, what does it matter who the return is made? I use to think, especially when I wrote these blog posts, my readers needed to see something wiseguy-ish, a sexy and bold choice. I got over that quickly and got back to what I do well: Pick winners, eliminate pretenders and assemble tickets. I'm about making more on the return than what the bet cost me to make (although I can still be a bit dumb sometimes if I get caught up in the moment).
Let's get after this!
King Edward Grade 2: 1 Mile Firm Turf WO
It's hard to ignore the strong first 2018 performance of Delta Prince over this Woodbine turf in late June. 7 of 7 in the money over turf, 6 of 6 in the money at the distance and the Woodbine win in the 5 YO son of Street Cry out of Delta Princess. 9 starts lifetime, distance and class remain unchanged but he does pick up 5 pounds from his Grade 1 win in the Fourstardave at Saratoga in mid August. Late speed but good early tactical speed as needed.
Divisidero was outkicked here after winning Arlington Handicap G3 in last time out. 4 Starts at 1 Mile: a Place and 2 Shows. 2 Wins in last 11. Nice price to win but the stars would have to align.
Fourstardave Handicap Grade 1: 1 Mile good turf SAR
Lord Glitters (Fr), an absolutely stunning grey, has lasix for first time, drops 10 pounds from last effort, a Grade 1 win at York as the chalk. Dropping is distance, comfortable on LH courses.
Skybet and Symphony Group Stakes $128K York (GB); 1 1/16 Miles LH Good Turf (Lord Glitters (Fr))
La Sardane (Fr), a filly, Vanish and Mr. Havercamp all went in the Play the King over a shorter race and yielding turf. The filly didn't care for it but the boys ran well.
Play the King Grade 2: 7f on yielding Turf WO
And here's Vanish winning the race 2 months back just before the Play The King effort, winning at $2.30-1 odds.
OC 40K (28 July 2018); 7f good Turf WO (Vanish)
Oscar Performance was pulled up after taking a bad step in the Arlington Million in mid August. He checked out fine and has been training sharply over Saratoga's turf for trainer Brian Lynch. 7 Wins in 13 turf starts but never Placed and only one Show finish. All or nothing? Here is the 4 YO Kitten's Joy winning his 2018 debut setting a course record at Belmont.
Poker G3; 1 Mile Fast Turf BEL (Corse Record 1' 31") with :22.79 final quarter. Oscar Performance
I don't have a good feel for what to do with far post Stormy Antarctic (GB). Also on lasix first time, also shedding 10 pounds, a class jump (albeit not much) and distance unchanged. 10 of 14 in the money at the distance and 16 of 21 in the money over turf including 12 of 21 Win-Place finishes. 5 of 5 in the money in 2018.
Prix Edmond Blanc G3: 1 Mile Heavy Turf LH St Cloud (Fr). Stormy Antarctic (GB)
Ahh, Bill Mott, the ultimate trap trainer. You have to go all the way back to 1997 when Mott had Chris Antly (rest in peace) up for a win with Geri. I have not been a big fan of Good Samaritan and maybe its uncalled for. I love the late turn of foot, the 5 of 6 in the money over grass, the 2 of 2 in the money at the distance, the one win at Woodbine in only ship here. What don't I like? A lack of signature wins. I'll draw a line through The Whitney, but The Met Mile? Eh. Blinkers Off, Mott wins 33% of these while his Dirt to Turf is 13% in 97 tries. The Whitney Grade 1: 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy and Sealed SAR
Here's Mr. Havencamp's sire winning the 2010 Woodbine Mile: Court Vision, still one of my best Breeders' Cup bets of all time (Little Turk that is).
I will absolutely have $2 Win Bets on Mr. Havencamp and Lord Glitters (Fr). They are worth a gamble.
Delta Prince is the obvious choice but this is gambling. I'm not sure how I'll play yet but the investment will be small in this one for me and if forced to say:
Today the Little Turk is running in a cross country race, so this will be an abbreviated look at a fine Woodbine card.
I'm sensing from Twitter that others like myself are going through Kentucky Downs withdrawal this weekend. I thoroughly loved those six races days as a race fan and as a bettor. I thought the track played fairly, the fields were deep and interesting, and I love the quirkiness of the product that is presented, at least through the Twinspires TV feed that I watch. The track announcers and the rest of the on air commentary is good, not intrusive, and I somehow survived without Trakus or better camera angles. Of course I'd like to see continued improvements, but a few more race dates would be at the top of my wish list. Good luck with the politics team Kentucky Downs!
I'm focused on turf running over the past month. I love the late turn of foot and the big fields that contest these contests. It brings a bit of special to things when the Euros invade, even if its tier 2 Euro. I'll be playing more vertically then horizontally today, mostly because of the circumstances of my day and my time constraints. I do dig the NYRA/Woodbine mixed Pick 5 at the Woodbine entry level price of $0.20 and while you're reading about the bet, read Buffalo News Turf Writer Gene Keshner's take on the days events. I was listening to HRN this morning and they seem to think these Woodbine turf races are chalky. I'll get to it, but let's peel back the combatants and I think there may be some interesting value that pops, like Glenville Gardens pictured above. The gelded 5 YO Street Cry was very game in the Grade 2 Play King, a race he won a year previously at Woodbine. Let's not sleep on a Street Cry that has won 4 times at the distance and 6 times over this track, with local jock and trainer combo.
Let's Get after it!
I don't anyone beating Hawkbill in the Northern Dancer. On Lasik, this 4 YO Kitten's Joy has won five of his last 12 and is 5 of 6 in the money at this marathon distance. Has the class and the tactical speed. I'm only tossing two and I could have made a case for multiple scenarios below Hawkbill but I think Noble Thought and Mesi (Ger) will compete for Place and Show with Pumpkin Rumble an interesting candidate for a minor prize. Noble Thought was 10-1 and ran a game Place in the Grade 2 1 1/2 Mile Sky Classic here at Woodbine in late August.
I'm feeling contrarian in the Woodbine Mile. I like World Approval but others to like as well and I'm not sure how much I like him on firm turf. This would be Glenville Gardens biggest score but I think Trainer Attard has the 5 YO peaking. Deauville is my tepid chalk and a case for 3 YO Lancaster Bomber can be made:This classy War Front was in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and has run a demanding campaign from the UAE to the UK. Hope we see him at 4. My Show/Exotic Group and my Win/Place Groupings could easily flip flop which makes this field very interesting as a gambler and fan. Conquest Panthera and Tower of Texas could surprise and the classy Mondialiste has nothing to prove.
More on this one past race, I'm off to see Little Turk run.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog that has been providing handicapping advice since 2008.
Before I go to far, I'd like to stop and thank the fine people of The Thorofan and the The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you about Saturday's Woodbine Mile.
As a horse racing fan first and foremost I get excited looking at the Past Performances of this quality. This is a race that always attracts top quality turf horses, ideally spaced 7 weeks before Breeders' Cup weekend. After spending some time with the numbers it was apparent to me that Tepin is the class of this race but...The "but" for me is Tepin may go to the post wildly overbet, her first race back after a trip to the UK, carrying the heaviest weight of the race, and by my count there are at least five horses that could come up and win at long and longer prices. This is a fan's race and a degenerate gamblers race all mixed together.
Let's take some time to look at the field in action. The first video isn't relevant for anything other than to familiarize yourself with the race over this immaculate turf course with its long stretch. Tower of Texas and Mr Owen were well back of the impressive Mondialiste.
Tower of Texas and Full Mast (the race chalk) fall to Dimension (GB) in July at WO at 1 mile.
A month later, and one panel less, Tower of Texas and Passion for Action chase the local claimer, Glenville Gardens. What a nice claim from Ottawa Senator's owner Melnyk by the Attard's.
The 5 YO gelded son of Sea the Stars (Ire), Mutakayyef (GB), in the 1 5/16 LH Juddmonte G1.
Bill Mott's Full Mast in the 1 1/16 Lure Stakes at SAR. Trainer Mott is one of the best at picking his spots in the conditions book.
Passion for Action winning at 6f in the Grade 2 Highlander at WO in July.
So, I'll say it, Tepin is special. Seven straight wins, 13 of 15 in the money on turf with 10 wins, 7 of 7 in the money at the distance with 6 wins, 16 of 20 in the money lifetime. The race's lone mare has excellent connections, a top shelf Trainer in Mark Casse and one of the best turf pilots in the game in Leparoux, up. She's coming into this race after completing a tough journey to the UK.
Training at SAR for six weeks with two sizzling 5f bullets, is she ready to resume her dominance is the only question left.
My base handicap is just that, an all things equal, fair surface ranking of Class, current Condition, and ultimately the horse's range of finishes. The bet construction sometimes mirrors the Base Handicap but I do deviate when i'm looking for a price. In my last posting for the Handicapper's Corner I handicapped a similar situation with The Woodward at SAR. My alternative strategy of betting that Frosted would Place instead of Win netted well over $350 for me on a pretty cheap $2 Tri. I'd love Tepin to win as a horse racing fan, but I'm betting adult money and the adult thing to do is to take a stack of $20's and make the stack bigger and not smaller.
If I have more or less settled on a contrarian view that Tepin won't win, who will? As a handicapper I'm less concerned with who and more interested in establishing how many are possible. If I have the right number in the win spot I'll process it as a fan after I count the winnings and record the ROI.
Full Mast is interesting to me. Trainer Mott brought the 4 YO here in July where he put on a game effort. He brought him back which should suggest he liked his late turn of foot over the course. No wins in 3 attempts at the distance, 6 of 8 lifetime in the money, 5 of 7 in the money lifetime on turf, comes in with Rosario up again off a minor stake at SAR in the Lure Stakes (above). Will his late turn be enough to catch Tepin?
Mutakayyef (GB) is a solid stakes runner in the UK, not grade 1 but solid. 2 wins and a game Show in the Grade 1 Juddmonte International in mid August. I'm thinking he's in the money in this field unless he really didn't travel well.
Passion for Action is a local who has ran 9 times over the WO turf winning 3 and Placing 3. No wins at the distance but he was really flying at 6f in July here in the Grade 2 Highlander. This is 2nd off 45-180 layoff, a jump that Trainer DePaulo wins 18% of the time. Sure this is the deep end of the pool but that's why its called gambling.
Glenville Gardens is a really nice Woobine story after being claimed last September. six wins in last 9 starts and three straight including the Grade 2 Play King at 7f here at WO in late August.
Mr Owen and Arod (Ire) will go off at better odds than most of the others I mentioned. Mr. Owen ran here determinedly last year in the Woodbine Mile over yielding turf. I'm not sure this is his race at this time based on how he's running and how the pacing should unfold. Arod (Ire) goes on Lasix for the first time and the 5 year old has not had a very good 2016 at all, winless in four starts. His last start at 1 mile was a Show finish and a better effort.
At my own peril I'm tossing Roger Attfield's Tower of Texas. You can't cover everyone and I could have easily made the case for him over Glenville Gardens or Passion for Action. Tower of Texas is winless in 2016, only one win in 7 starts on turf and one win in 7 starts on WO turf. He's coming late so possibly include him Show spot.
What to do? I'm going to play with something like this:
5-2-6-4-3 OVER 8 OVER 5-2-6-4-3, a $2 bet for $40.
I don't know if this is my final incarnation of this bet but you get the idea of what I'm trying to do.
If you want safe go 8 OVER 5-2-6-4-1 for a $2 exact that costs $10. Maybe only include the >15-1 horses.
The Turk has been a big fan of the Woodbine Mile since its inception. The race, run over the The outermost E. P. Taylor turf course is 1 1/2 miles long with a chute allowing races of 1 1/8 miles to be run around one turn. The Taylor turf course and the main dirt course at Belmont are the only mile-and-a-half layouts in North American thoroughbred racing. You need to have a basic understanding of the courses as in many locations a second turn would have been required and that changes the dynamics. In this internet thingy day and age this information is a search browser trip away. Woodbine is the Turk's second favorite turf course in North America, and just like my favorite, Arlington, it's saddled with fake dirt for the main track, a turn off that I struggle to get by. No matter, today is one of the great days at Woodbine, and the Mile and The Northern Dancer, both Grade I's, are premier events. The fields are strong and the handicapping was really difficult, so let's just throw it out on the table and see what we got!
Woodbine Race Track Races 8-9-10; The Late Pick Three with the Grade I Northern Dancer and the Grade I Woodbine Mile, post time of Race 8 is 4:34 ET.
As always, check for scratches/changes, weather (and go back a few days for turf events) and monitor the tote board as the day goes on.
The Pick Three kicks off at 4:34 ET with the Northern Dancer. Marshside was entered all over the place this summer before finally shipping into Woodbine to take the Grade II Sky Classic. It was masterful work inside the conditions book by Trainer Drysdale. I like him here as well but he won't be without strong challengers and this is a good race to look for value. I'll be taking my base handicap and looking at the tote board before post. If I'm backing a horse second or third who is the third-fifth favorite with the bettors and the horse is > 6-1, I'm looking for a win bet to be defensive with. I like Memorial Maniac, a five time loser at this distance to be a real value play. Spice Route is very strong and I can never tell what to make of Expansion, with a wild card being Redwood (GB) who seems to run better RH than LH.
I'm going to keep the risk low on the Pick Three. I'll most likely single or provide just a second cover with value in the Northern Dancer.
The Allowance Race contains an interesting collection of even horses and I'll cover as many as four here, Thunderball, Lady's First Cat, Perfect Loch, and a value pick in his second career start, Summanus, son of Thunder Gulch who will have to shock while adding more distance. There will be some safe value mixed in as well with Casual Dude, Smart Sky, Shellback and Spirit Flying all very capable. Gambling ain't always going to be easy and often you will be perplexed: Build your handicap and live with it, the post race analysis is the tool you use to make adjustments in future base handicaps.
For the main event, the picture for this handicapper is no cleaner. I'm backing Famous Name for no reason other than I had to many nicks against the other runners and perhaps my lack of knowledge with him gave him an unfair advantage. It's quite possible. I think the Usual Q.T. is a nifty horse for Trainer Cassidy, winning 8 of 16 career starts including some of the biggest California turf events and he's 5 of 5 at the distance. No rational reason to downgrade him except I'm not sure he'll love the course and that's what I'm banking on. That said, Grand Adventure and Smokey Fire will fire well on this course and Victor's Cry seems fresh and primed. Trainer Goldberg, a 26% winner, brings in Straight Story with Maragh up, and is more than capable of hitting the board.
As a handicapper, I like to be tested with big, competitive fields. As a gambler, I prefer to pick softer targets, and as a blogger I'm just going to do my best with the marks that I'm interested in. Have fun with it. I'll be betting safely within the races, hunting for value, while I'll most likely keep the pick three to $2 2 picks X 4 picks X 2 Picks $32. I'd actually like to go a bit lower.
The fine looking 5 YO gelding in the picture is Chamberlain Bridge, the Turk's chalk in today's Nearctic at Woodbine. It's feeling a bit Near-Arctic here in Western New York, 80 miles south of Woodbine, and the weather at the track shouldn't be much warmer but the turf will be firm and fast.
Race 8 WO post time 4:23 ET; The Nearctic Grade II; 6f on Turf for 3 YO and Up.
10 Cent Supers are not in fashion for this race. I lead with that as it does shape my bet strategy as I review my base handicap.
While a Grade II event, the field isn't one to remember. There is a parity among the middle of the pack, and in my handicapping opinion a few that are better and a few that perhaps should never leave the shed row. The beauty of the races is that they aren't a mathematical proposition or a Sudoku puzzle as I'll often describe them to bewildered folks sitting next to me on airplanes. The Turk is still shaking his head at Gitano Hernando (GB), surprise winner of the Goodwood last weekend. I can accept that he won. I can accept I didn't pick him. I can accept that I didn't even consider him. I grudgingly accept that foreign invaders with unremarkable Past Performances need to be accounted for. That was understood on Turf for many years, but now the turf to poly angle is a factor as is the overseas or different poly to race day poly angles must be analyzed. All good stuff.
As a handicapper, after I have reviewed what is on the paper, I must sit back and ponder the intangibles. Why is this horse racing at this track on this day? It's a fundamental question that must be asked, especially of shippers. Why did the connections ship this horse here, why did they train like they did, and what is the end game? You must ask yourself that question again in the post race analysis, what any serious handicapper must do to learn from his effort fully, and often the hindsight you gain will lead you clearly to the answer.
I digress. What I enjoy most about handicapping are the surprises. The Turk often talks of staying humble. Horses will keep you humble, but if you are consistent, if you learn from your handicaps that worked and the ones that don't, ticket cashing will follow. I'm not sure how this economy of words blogger started this discussion, perhaps The Glenlivet is still in my system fro last night. Let's get it on!
Chamberlain Bridge is a 5-5.5 furlong runner stretching up to 6f today. Gomez is up today for Trainer Calhoun's runner. Trainer Calhoun has sparkling stats this year, 23% winners, 177 wins, 25% turf sprints, 24% won last start, 21% turf, 26% sprints, 24% graded stakes and 25 graded stakes wins. Chamberlain Bridge is 16 of 17 lifetime in the money on Turf and comes in off a 102 BSF effort in early September and 3 straight mid 90 BSF's before that. Work is dull and slow.
Trainer Sid Attard's Jungle Wave is coming in with perhaps even better current form; 4 straight upper 90 low 100 BSF's including a Grade II WO 7F turf race on yielding grass and the mid race lead at the Woodbine Mile. 9 of 12 lifetime in the money and 5 of 6 in the money in 2009, a nice :47 3/5ths effort at 4f this past week.
Field Commission is a solid local runner who always seems to be in contention in minor stakes at WO, 14 of 17 lifetime in the money. Seems to like slightly softer turf, something I don't think we'll see today. Hedging down a bit with this B pack that I have, but I like him and he gets many intangible points.
My "live and long" choice is Grand Adventure. Dropping back slightly in distance, this lightly raced 3 YO comes in off a Woodbine Mile where he pressed the pace well to the 6f point with :46 at 4f and 1:09.08 at 6f. Not earth shattering, but with Husbands up and 3 of 5 lifeime on WO turf, I'm watching the tote and placing some sort of wager on him. Does he belong this high in my base handicap? Maybe not but if I'm going to consider him live and long I need to consider him for hitting at least 4th or that would be sandbagging.
Little Nick and Heros Reward deserve some action on the ticket, I'm just not sure how much i can afford them. My general betting rules would obligate me to offer no wager on a base handicap that shaped up as this one did for me. That said, I'm oing to keep it simple, small, and we'll see what happens. I'm off to walk the Turk's foundation weimaraner, Kay, and when i return we'll get after the Canadian International, Grade I on turf at WO. Today is The Turk's 17th wedding aniversary. Mrs. Turk wasn't sure if she could find time to handicap today, but she took several seconds and announced she liked Field Commission and Little Nick. Little Turk, our resident handicapping savant, likes Chamberlain Bridge too.
Have fun, tell your family and friends you love them, Turk out!
Horseshoes and Hand grenades. They aren't exactly the same when being tossed in your general direction.
The Turk built what he thought was a rock solid top 5 in this past weekend's Grade I Woodbine Mile, assembled 36 combinations of superfecta bet and while I came up close, it still left me a feeling of no joy. That's why we refer to the endeavour as gambling, and there is always something to be learned, win or lose.
Woodbine Race 10 9/20/2009: The Woodbine Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on Ontario Turf for 3 YOs and Up.
Pre Race I took a strong stand on a few horses that I liked but seriously missed their valuation on the tote board. I pegged Ferneley (Ire) for the Place spot and that's where he ran. I expected Sterwins to figure in the Exotic ticket and he didn't disappoint, and I figured Ventura to be a contender who ran hard at Gio Ponti earlier this year. What I didn't expect was the misfire of Bribon (Fr) and the poor finish of Rahy's Attorney. Jungle Wave hitting the Superfecta payout did me in and in the end, thirty six tickets got tossed in the proverbial trash can.
The deep closing speed of Ventura over this turf and her fine form coming off a very long layoff was impressive. Sterwins closed very hard as well and always seems to find the tickets.
The Turk would also like to remember Summer Squall, 1990 Preakness Stakes Winner and Sire of 1999 Kentucky Derby Winner Charismatic. Summer Squall (foaled 1987 in Kentucky - September 22, 2009) was sired by Storm Bird. Summer Squall passed away of natural causes yesterday. Our condolences to his owners, connections and care givers.
Rest in Peace and your humans will meet you at the Rainbow Bridge.
