The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Hello Don Julio: Photo Gulfstream Park Twitter Feed
Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.
Simple. I don't say that to boast, I say that to point out opportunities exist to make money in this game. In this morning's blog post, I repeatedly stated that the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup was a wide open race. The morning line and presumptive post time chalk, Hello Don Julio looked vulnerable, but from whom? An eleven horse field of vanilla. For the first time perhaps ever in the long history of The Turk, I suggested an exacta bet with The Turk's top two favorites over the field. For a $20 bet, it looked like the downside case was Hello Don Julio won and Final Copy at $3.70 odds, Renown at $5.20 or Vintage Matters at $7.20 Placed, returning me about the value of the bet. The upside was if some of the longer prices came in Place, and $115 to $1 Cooptado (Arg) did just that returning the Turk $130 or $110 net. Cooptado (Arg) on paper looked rough, the 8 YO hadn't hit the board in 5 races in 2018, and unraced since June. Working at Laurel over the main track, Trainer Thomas Morley did a nice job putting him in a good spot. His late Timeform Pace fig is 102 but that late turn of foot has not been evident in any of this year's races.
Why'd I pick the field to Place? Again, it was wide open on paper. My Turk Fair Line illustrates this. Am I retiring on this win? No, but again, The Turk says it all the time, I'm a low risk, medium reward handicapper/Investor and I just keep carving out this type of wins that are offset partially by the losses, but overall positive ROI.
Churning out a positive return on investment has become the game to me.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.
Wide Open! That is what I would say to describe today's handicapping challenge, the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup, which thanks to the track announcer, confirmed to me that the race is indeed on the turf today. Twitter is a powerful tool for a handicapper who is trying to collect information. I understand budgets are tight at the tracks, but a good social media poster who can respond to tweets is incredibly helpful. Through 4 races while I write this the Turf is listed as good.
Wide Open! Let's get after it.
Renown (GB) enters off a show finish (Place through DQ) in the $100K John's Call Stakes at SAR in mid August.
Bottled up along the rail after breaking from 5 hole, Renown (GB) darted through a hole late showing as his running line said "...good courage". 11 of 20 In the Money over grass with 8 wins, a 50% winner at this distance in 12 starts, distance (1/8 cut), class (same), and weight (-1) all pretty consistent with last time out for conditioner Elizabeth Voss who is 49% in the money and a 19% winner in 2018 over 37 starts in these conditions.
Hello Don Julio enters off 1 3/8 $80K OC at SAR where he finished Place by a neck after leading most of the way. 9 of 16 in the money over grass, no wins in only one try at the distance for the 6 YO gelded son of Afleet Alex. Class, Distance and Weight (+2) all step ups.
Postulation is down over past two races but is going with Michael Matz today for first time (29% in 7 tries with first timers). Training sharply, the 6 Yo gelded son of Harlan's Holiday is going at same distance, with similar class and weight (+1), 8 Win-Places in 19 career starts.
Tizzarunner has 2 wins in 3 Laurel Park starts and breaks from far outside post today. Winless in 2018, class dropped from Grade 2 to 3 to $97K and now $100K stakes. Last time out at Ellis Park he finished well beaten in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Preview.
Final Copy and Vintage Matters break 1 and 2 on the inside respectively. Final Copy has no wins in 5 tries at the distance, drops in Class from Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woodbine at similar distance but picking up 3 pounds. Over good turf he ran evenly throughout. Ontario bred Malibu Moon 4 YO trained by Roger Attfield.
Vintage Matters hasn't won in 2 years and 2 months, only has 1 win in 11 turf tries and is 1 of 11 lifetime as well and is 6-1 Morning line incredibly. Wide Open!
Not In Charge has nice late turn of foot and comes in with a 1 1/2 mile win overfirm turf on this course. Scuba , a 7 YO gelded son of Tapit, makes his 5th career turf start and is looking for win 2.
I'm thinking that any of the field can PLACE but only a few logical winners, led by Renown and Hello Don Julio. I'll be building exacta tickets after looking at the Will Pay's just before they head into the gate.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a race handicapping and gambling venture now in our 9th year with well over 600 blog postings to our credit. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on the Maryland Million Classic, a $125,000 Stakes race restricted to horses sired by a Maryland standing stud.
That dapper gentleman pictured is Jim McKay, a legendary broadcaster, horse racing owner and fan. Mr. McKay was inspired by the first Breeders' Cup to hold an event similar in Maryland focusing on Maryland's breeding. It's hard for me to believe (maybe accept) that Jim McKay has been gone from us since 2008. He was a big part of my childhood, a voice that was calming, passionate, credible and likable. It was a different era in sports, perhaps a more naive era, arguably a more enjoyable time, when sports were a release, a purer pleasure. A time when boxing and horse racing were still relevant. The Turk digresses, but at 50 something I think I have enough depth of perspective to say that the commercialization of sports, the politicization of sports, the marginalization of horse racing, have all left me waxing poetic for a bygone time, when men like Jim McKay came into our house to educate, inform and inspire us.
I've been handicapping for a long time. I took red pen to the Form for the first time in 1986, 31 years ago. I've been using DRF Formulator PPs for the past several years but today's race was the first race I've handicapped using Timeform US PPs. Working with both pieces of information was overwhelmingin many ways, perhaps information overload best describes it. I still lack a feel for the speedfigs and the pace adjusted speedfigs of Timeform, but as an information handicapper I was quite impressed. I also liked how I could add notes to each runner, as well as identify where I thought each horse might slot, win-place-show-toss. I'm using the next few months to experiment with tools like Timeform US and Thorograph. I'm a life long learner, and while I have a very comfortable comfort zone with DRF products, I'm committed to looking at my methods and tools as I take my craft to the next level.
My craft? I don't have a clue about today's race. Maybe it was the PP info overload, maybe it's the parity of class and quality in the 12 horse field, but I am not afraid to say I'm a bit stumped. Let's get after this and maybe through typing clarity will grace my thoughts.
Right off the bat I liked how the first quarter pacing was laid out for me before I even had to dive into the PPs. You can also see in the screen capture "My Picks" which saved me scribbling them out later.
I'm backing a closer, Bonus Points, to win. The 3 YO Pletcher trainee has been running in graded stakes company all year, hitting the board three times in 8 starts. I think he will have plenty of speed to target and the one I think he'll be taking late is John Jones. Making a turf to Dirt switch, the 5 YO gelding has 7 wins in 13 Laurel Park starts and is a pretty consistent effort horse.
I think the more interesting group of horses are my next three: Ghost Bay,Clubman and SouthsideWarrior. I think I could have made a good case for any of them to win-place. Ghost Bay is another deep closer whereas Clubman and Southside Warrior should be racing mid-pack and steady. Southside Warrior has declining Beyer Speed Figures over past three races (90/84/75) and while the pace adjusted figs illustrated the same decline, it did not appear as severe. I'm intrigued at the price. Clubman put up a 5f bullet :59 3/5ths on October 13 and has raced well at Laurel, 6 of 8 in the money and 7 of 9 in the money over fast dirt for the 3 YO.
Admirals War Chest and Jerandson round out my potential board hitters. Admirals War Chest will go to the front, but I'm gambling the 6 YO wont be able to stay there and there are some quality closers entered. The two time champ will get sentimental betting interest but I'm dubious.
Jerandson goes blinkers off for Trainer Pletcher (24% wins on 34 blinker off races) but the three year old so far hasn't flashed much speed. I think a very minor prize, if anything.
I think I'll be looking to build Exacta Combinations using some of the longer prices on the board and in my handicap. The weather should be good with no rain so we should assume a fast track. I'm going to use some combinations of 5-2-11-9-12-1-3. I won't box: That's a $1 Exacta for $42. I'll use the toteboard and piece together no more than 8-10 $2 bets for $20 of betting interest with Ghost Bay-Clubman and Southside Warrior mixed with others from the group.
Have fun with it friends and enjoy the Maryland Racing Showcase.
