Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic-Part 2

Last week we took an initial look at the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders, and now that we have a bit more information as to who may be in the starting gate it seems like the right time to circle back. As to not make you go back to hunt for Part 1, I'll tack it on the end or you can get to it from here.

We've got 12 athletes to study. I've already determined that I am hunting for the Super Hi Five and the Superfecta in this race so my layer handicapping approach will integrate my betting strategy as well. You just can't box your way to Super Hi Five success, well you can, but it would be pricey; Taking the top 7 and boxing them on a $1 bet would cost you $2,520. Now, this Super High Five, unless its wildly chalky, should pay more than double that and if it paid 10-20 times more than that i wouldn't be surprised. That said, boxing is out for The Turk, I want this win badly but I also want it old school cool too, as few combinations as I can. I'll employ a matrix betting structure. I could for example use 8 horses with 4 over 4 Over 5 Over 5 Over 5 for $562. We got options, let's not sweat that yet!

Await the Dawn is a Kentucky bred 4 year old son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Aidan O'Brien, wearing the silks of Tabor and Magnier, the silks I see when I close my eyes and think of Rags to Riches.

No dirt racing in his past and no races at the classic distance but he has run very well going left. Here he is going right in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2), 1 1/2 Miles over soft turf. In this article, O'Brien makes no bones about his desire for a Breeders' Cup Classic win.



Drosselmeyer is a four year old son of Distorted Humor, trained by Bill Mott. He posted a career best 104 Beyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over the slop in October, looked out of place in the 12 panel Sword Dancer before that over grass, and was a beaten chalk at 12 panels over the dirt in Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont, the track of his greatest victory. Actually since winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 he's only won one race, the 60K One Count at the classic distance at Belmont in May of this year.

Working well at Churchill Downs this week.

2nd in Jockey Club Gold Cup



Gio Ponti is cross entered here as well as the Mile. No Dirt efforts and no wins at this distance. 1 win in five starts in 2011.

Headache is a Michael Maker trainee that comes in off a Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) win at 1 1/4 miles over fast dirt. 14 of 18 in the money over fast dirt with 8 wins and 3 of 3 in the money at 10 furlongs with 1 win. The five year old son of Tapit comes in sharp.

Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) 8 October 2011



Working in traffic in the Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1) 6 August 2011



Winning Cornhusker Handicap (G3) 25 June 2011



Prayers for Relief is a 3 YO Zayat Stables runner trained by Bob Baffert. 3 wins in 4 fast dirt starts and 4 of 4 in the money, with no attempts at the distance and a lifetime best 98 Beyer. Winner of Iowa Derby (G3), West Virginia Derby (G2), The Super Derby (G2)and a beaten chalk in the Oklahoma Derby 400K. Put up a bullet :46 3/5ths for 4f at SA this past week.

The Super Derby (G2)



The Oklahoma Derby, Bejarano had the rail at the top of the stretch, swung him outside and got up for show.



Rattlesnake Bridge is another three year old son of Tapit trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Comes in off Pennsylvania Derby (G2), a flattened out run and a well beaten Show to To Honor and Serve and Ruler on Ice.



Rattlesnake Bridge is 5 of 5 in the money on fast dirt with 2 wins and has only tried the classic distance once.

Both Ruler on Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge ran the Travers (G1) as well, losing to Stay Thirsty.



Ruler on Ice has only run the Classic Distance once, has only one win in seven tries over fast dirt but did pull off a shocking Belmont Stakes (G1) win at 24.75-1 odds.

Ice Box won the Florida Derby (G1)in March 2010, was Place to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby and has done awfully little since then, but he ran pretty darn good at Churchill Downs last year at this distance, we shouldn't forget that, Nick Zito hasn't.

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon. And it's unfortunate, but Tiznow won't be joining us in Louisville.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



I'd be remiss to not say congratulations to The Little Turk. After six years of practicing two and three times a week he earned his Black Belt in Bushido Kai. Way to Go Little Buddy, we are all proud of our grifter in training.



Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 28 August 2011: Travers Day Pick Six

Which makes you look thinner, horizontal or vertical stripes? The Ol' Turk doesn't have a clue about fashion but he knows that his horizontal handicapping and betting on the Travers Stakes Pick Six card made him a whole lot phatter in wallet than his "on a diet" vertical bet Pick Six effort.

The handicaps utilized my "layer handicapping" approach and the bets followed my handicaps without deviation. I did my thinking pre-race and that allowed me to sit back, not feel that sense of panic that can arise as post time approaches, and I didn't over think the races. Regardless of the surface I focus squarely on current form, past three race run lines, over time history on surface/at distance/at course, and where and against whom the animal has been running against. On turf I place great emphasis on late turn of foot.

I only feel comfortable talking about how I go about my handicapping. I don't like to read about the races I'm handicapping until after I've completed my handicapping, as I prefer to avoid the hype and bias of the writer whose income is derived from entertaining readers and not necessarily from tossing contestants, some of whom have a better story to tell than a race to run.

A factor I really discount in comparison to contemporaries who I talk shop with is pace. I take into account where each horse will most likely be at the break and then at the top of the stretch, but I do it in broadstrokes and seldom do I predict a winner on the likely pace scenario. OK Turk, WTF does all that mean? It just means I have my own, not that complicated manner of slotting the horses into expected finish. The beauty of handicapping is there is an infinite number of ways to approach the problem but the results are the results and they can be arrived at from many different roads.

Handicapping and betting are two VERY different things. Some do one well and do OK, some do neither well and some get both ends right. Forget what they are doing and ask yourself what you are doing right and wrong. Ripping up the tickets and not taking the time to do a handicapping autopsy is a huge mistake. If you take anything away from my ramblings each each, do this step and you'll see your skills increase.

I do completely ignore morning lines before I handicap and as I said, I do my best to not read about the races I'm handicapping. I treat each race with a fresh mind and no preconceived notions. Track handicappers are pretty sharp folks, some sharper than others, but pretty sharp nonetheless. I like to see where I have runners in relation to the track handicapper. What that does for me is give me feedback, something I lack in the vacuum of kitchen table 'capping. It took me years to believe in myself when I disagreed with the track handicapper. It's those differences of opinion that often lead to my best scores, the contrarian viewpoint.

Let's review and then I'll babble some more.



My list of HITS would be placing Daveron high in the Ballston Spa, not having Sassy Image to high on my board, not betting a Trifecta in the Ballerina, even if I did leave a profit on the table, having Caleb's Posse and Uncle Mo in the exacta that drove my Superfecta and having Justin Phillips higher than other bettors. On my MISSES list would be not valuing Hot Summer and over rating the chances of Precious Soul in the Victory Ride, consistently missing on Stay Thirsty, but my Travers Coil/Shackleford placings was a bust and the Pick Six in general was just a mess.

I put about $540 dollars of capital on table yesterday. I would not have hit that Pick Six if I invested all $540 on the bet or double that. I think the bet is the "bridge too far" for the average bettor and the Pick 3 and 4 are much more achievable targets. That said, the cards always offer juicy exotics that can be hit if you layer the horses properly and you build good bets. I didn't make $6 for every dollar I bet yesterday by just having good handicaps, it was sound betting practices that you learn over time. I felt comfortable that I had the exactas and then I went five and six deep for spots Place and Show and then slimmed back for fourth. That bet structure was what I used twice yesterday and I went as exactly deep as I had color coded pre race.

I hope some of what I'm saying helps someone out there sharpen their own skills. My methods came from reading the works of Brad Free, Steve Crist, Andy Beyer, Tom Ainsile and Steve Davidowitz. I enjoy the articles in American Turf Monthly as well, and I take all this and I have my own, derivative methods. I call them derivative because nothing I do I would call original.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 27, 2011; The Travers Stakes Day Pick Six

It seems the question my friends keep asking is one I wish to avoid: If today's winner of the Travers is one of the 3 YOs to have won a major Grade I already, will he be a lock for horse of the year? How quickly we jump to canonize in our society. I won't rant today, it's too much of a holiday for me, these Travers Stakes days, but let's allow the year play out folks.

I put a personal favorite of mine up today, a fine picture of Point Given by Tom Killips, the 2001 winner, being led to the winners circle by the ageless master, Trainer Bob Baffert. Point Given's greatness was cemented by the time this race ended: A Preakness, a Belmont, a Haskell and a Travers in consecutive starts will do that for you. This year's three year olds have been battered and bruised for lacking a real division leader, and the question of if it's depth of talent or mediocrity is a topic I've had some wonderfully engaged discussions on with readers here and within the social media universe, as well as over cigars at a few paddocks. If the year plays out like it has, someone different will step forward.

What do I suspect today? A chance to break the cycle. I'm leaning towards a horse with raw talent to burn and the DNA of greatness, Coil, yes the one career start on dirt Coil, son of Point Given. Whoever wins, and I'm still keen on Shackleford, there's this little hootenanny called the Breeders' Cup Classic with no strong candidate currently to win. I'm more interested in allowing greatness to announce itself on the biggest stage. Someone will kick the door open today, Let's get after it!

The Travers Stakes Day Pick 6 Race 8-13 post time 3:28 ET


I'm not an advocate of the Pick Six as a betting option for the traditional bettor; It's sexy, it's daunting, it feels like a wise guy thing to do, but it's a black hole of failure to casual bettors. I've never hit one, but I think I've only personally bet a P6 a handful of times.

The Turk was a member of a Pick Six group for a short period of time. I was humbled that I was invited to join with some pretty serious fellas and smart enough to know I wasn't that into the action. My readers and friends know I'm an exotics fella, but there are much softer spots to invest in.

All that said, I've assembled a $24 $1 P6 bet. If I'm going to play it, I want to win it betting a little as possible. To me that's got a cool factor and something worth hunting for a few times a year.

It always starts with the base handicap for me, regardless of what betting menu option I choose. Once you've done the work you can take the race program either horizontally or vertically.

I'll let my spreadsheet speak for me and keep my comments short until my post race analysis, and then I'll take a little extra time to explain what I was thinking.

Have fun with the card and only bet what you are 100% prepared to lose.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 6 and 7, 2011: The Kentucky Oaks- Kentucky Derby Double

Well it's finally here! We horse fans start watching 2 year olds like mystics reading tea leaves or chicken bones and graduation day always comes the first weekend in May.

The Turk has done a fair share of handicapping and gambling over the years. At the end of the day, I'm a horse racing fan and having days like this with multiple graded stakes and graded stakes caliber horses puts the fire back in my soul.

I got grumpy the past few weeks. I hated the way Uncle Mo was handled as a three year old and everywhere I looked I saw horses that looked like fine Grade II 9 furlong horses but so few classic distance runners. I let go some of my bitterness when I printed the Oaks day past performances and felt that feeling again.

The unexpected benefit of handicapping the Oaks-Derby Double is that I have no choice but get down to seriously looking at the Derby closely: It's one thing to vote on potential like I did with the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll, but its quite a different thing to take into account track conditions, current form, post position etc.

Let's get it on!



A nice thirteen horse card greets us with a a gaping hole missing since R Heat Lightning dropped out of contention. Coupled with the faltering of Uncle Mo, we have an opportunity to have a good will pay on this double bet and that my friends is why we play this game, the opportunities that present themselves.

After some internal debate I settled on five possible victors who'd I'd love to cover, but my very light chalk is Kathmanblu: 8 of 9 lifetime in the money, 5 wins, a Grade 2 and 3 win, and a solid CD 1 1/16 win on fast dirt. The McPeek runner with Leparoux up, expect an of the pace win in the deep stretch.


Daisy Devine might not win a class battle but she's a tough girl working well and coming in off a Grade 2 dirt win at 1 1/16 miles. The McKeever/ Graham combo wins 27% of the time together and placing her here for me represents some value, as we are afterall, gambling!

Joyful Victory looms large and I would expect her to be the bettors chalk: Her last two wins, a grade 3 and grade 2 she's won by almost 16 lengths combined for the Turk's favorite dirt trainer, Larry Jones. She'll be flying off the pace late as well.

Zazu is interesting to me: Losing my a neck to Turbulent Descent in the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks after beating Turbulent Descent two back. Nice speed figs from SA this winter and this fillie is ultra consistent.

And finally Summer Soiree is a recently transferred from Larry Jones to Graham Motion, with Saez up, and enters off a grade 3 win by 10 lengths. This War Front girl looks pretty serious and will look to strike the front and not give it up.

I guess we need to discuss the track condition I am assuming is fast. Make sure you check in on scratches and changes, the weather and track conditions before you finalize your choices.

For the Derby I considered dropping Uncle Mo completely off, as fear of a Life at Ten sequel is something i don't think Team Mo want any part of. I don't plan on covering him in the Double Bet and that represents the type of risk a bettor has to take. Playing it safe and covering everybody is the best way to take alot of money and turn it into a smaller pot of money.

For two weeks now I planned on making Archarcharch my chalk but post one is quite a hurdle. You have to go back to Winning Colors in '88 and Ferdinand in '86 to see success there. That said, I like his chances quite a bit and love the work and gallop outs he's been doing all week. My chalk is Nehro who I have regarded lightly but I am more compelled after spending some time in analysis: great late kick, a late surge and strong run in the Arkansas Derby, an he seems to be reaching the top of his fitness cycle at just the right time.

I'm expecting Archarcharch will be close and Midnight Interlude seems to be sharpening up well: This lightly raced, inexperienced colt won the Santa Anita Derby just after breaking his maiden. Trainer Baffert seems to be pushing the right buttons in his conditioning and I think he looms as a possible.

Dialed In is a feast or famine late runner who will be heavily bet. He could win but its far from assured and I'm betting against it for the bet sake. I like Shackleford's current form quite a bit as well and Mucho Macho Man will round out my potential covers.

So there we have it. The Turk will be back tomorrow with more racing from Oaks Day and again on Staurday with the Derby Day Late Pick 3.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Wire Players Dirty Derby Dozen Volume 5

WTF moments happen to all of us. I would think Team Mo last weekend had a serious WTF moment watching the 2 year old champion fade badly to Show in the Wood Memorial. How could they not see it coming?

We humans are often quick to label things "the next". I've read quotes comparing Uncle Mo to Seattle Slew. Why does he need to be anything other than Uncle Mo? Forget the horse flesh, Seattle Slew's conditioner prepared that horse differently, even on a compact prep schedule. Take a gander at a nice piece of writing at The Knight Sky and then think about Mo's extended spring break: You can be the best athlete in the world but if you aren't properly trained and placed at the top of your form cycle, you won't be successful. Is any of this new? There is no doubt Uncle Mo is talented, but what possessed the Kentucky Derby winning trainer to take such a conservative route? He is sound were told, why treat him like he has Big Brown's hooves?

Anyway, I'm a handicapper, not a trainer, so I'm not going to ramble on any further on this. I'm not sure what Mr. Pletcher will do to sharpen the colt. Regardless, this internet hack has contributed his darts at the dartboard, or I should say, my studied and considered choices for the top 12 Kentucky Derby contenders for this edition of the Wire Players Derby Dozen.

I remember vividly that the late Michael Hutchence of INXS didn't like to be photographed in promotional events without his bandmates because it was about the band and not the individual. While the Ol' Turk is neither as handsome or talented as Michael, he always respected that feeling and I partially regret posting my own pathetic Derby Dozen choices up separate from my esteemed group, but I think it illustrates how varied our opinions currently are. I freely admit how apathetic I feel towards this years Triple Crown trail. I loved Premier Pegasus, and I dig The Factor, and Santiva interests me, and when I saw Uncle Mo at the Breeders' Cup I thought I'd be putting another Triple Crown winner picture up on the wall, but who knows.

Anyhow, here you go!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 12, 2011: The GP Pick Three, Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe

Just like I drew it up! Well, yes and no. The Turk and Turk Clan turned yesterday into a fun day of racing, with a rare break from Little Turk's soccer, we were able to build a fire and settle in for the return of Uncle Mo running as close to a televised workout as you can get. We had family over for dinner that ended just in time for the San Felipe and when it was over, The Turk had gained over $1,100 dollars in winnings with some pretty low risk wagers.

My target was a Pick Three built around a single for Mo, but sometimes things just unfold, not like you drew them up but the randomness can produce interesting, sometimes better, results. The Turk unapologetically believes in his betting principles, even when he is going through difficult weeks, as consistency I find is always the best way out of the dark valley. My handicapping allowed me to identify some value and my betting discipline allowed me to keep risks low and rewards darn good.

Let's go!



I thought the Timely Writer was a lousy bet and I wasted no money on it. That's a skill I didn't possess 15 years ago. I thought Rattlesnake Bridge was second best and he was second best alright. Uncle Mo was moving nice through the last 1/4 mile but I still don't know what the point of this race was and why he wasn't racing a month ago, but hey, what do I know!

The Pick Three fell apart with Joes Blazing Arson who I had dead last and the bettors had 6 out of 9. A simple superfecta matrix with the top two in spots Win and Place and the next three bet Place through Fourth kept the bet to $48 dollars but it didn't matter this race.

In the Gulfstream Handicap the exact same superfecta bet came in for $773.80. I discounted Rule a bit and the rest of them just sorta fell into place for me. That's three races now for Rule and the smart trainer should rethink his conditions book strategy. I liked Jackson Bend and will pay attention to his next race back, and Soaring Empire and Tackelberry continue to make a fan of me. Typical Duke of Mischief, close, on the ticket, no winner.

The best handicapping of the day was my identification of Watch Me Go, who I had as an A- and expected a Place or Show result. My eyes got big looking at the tote board and the $10 win bet at 43-1 paid very nice. Did you see the exacta payout of $194, Tri at $7,900 and Super at $19,000? Wow. Never in a million years would I have inserted Crimson Knight.

My second best handicapping and betting move was backing Premier Pegasus on the win bet. As the bettors 4th choice and 7-1 I thought it was a no brainer. Jaycito impressed me and i didn't think too much of Bench Points, my mistake.

It was a fun afternoon of horse racing and winning a few bets made me feel confident again. I'm looking forward to the Rebel next week. Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: March 12, 2011; The Gulfstream Park Late Pick Three and the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe

Spectacular, Spectacular! The Turk is settling in with a roaring fire, a red gel pen and the form and have the cards at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita sized up for what should be a truly exciting day in horse racing, albeit one that may ultimately end up pretty chalky for bettors, but exhilarating for fans of the sport nonetheless.

Uncle Mo makes his long awaited return since his commanding victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The undefeated two time Grade I winner has won three times by a combined 23 1/4 lengths but is placed in a soft spot in The Timely Writer. Far be it for Turk the handicapper to question Trainer Pletcher but horse racing fan The Turk hates the idea of two preps and a Kentucky Derby run. I hate it! This race isn't much more than a hand ride morning work and while I love the horse, I wouldn't be sad to see someone shock him, but I cant see it happening.

At Tampa Bay Downs, Brethren looks very strong but there are a few untested and interesting runners and connections (always love to see a Nafzger/Tafel combination)who will try and shake this apple cart.

Finally around 7:07 Eastern Time, The San Felipe goes off over fast dirt at Santa Anita (doesn't that still sound great? I almost have the fake dirt taste out of my mouth)and Runflatout looks like a monster in the making but also has a handful of very serious contenders who are trying to make their hooves heard.

That handsome fella above is Soaring Empire, my chalk in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. The picture came from a very nice Flicker feed and I thank them for the unauthorized not for profit use.

I hope you're as excited as I am, let's get it on!



Race 8, The Timely Writer was hand picked by Pletcher who has been sharpening the son of Indian Charlie patiently and regularly. Uncle Mo seems like he's just throwing his hockey stick over the boards and expecting a win but give some consideration to two of the challengers, Rattlesnake Bridge and Rocking Out. Rattlesnake Bridge, if he can rate within a few lengths, can close fast, and the son of Tapit has connections in McLaughlin/Lezcano with experience while the horse makes only his second start. Rocking Out represents Dick Dutrow's attempt to be a spoiler.

In the Grade III Palm Beach over the grass, I'm expecting Pluck to scratch but I left him in until that's official. Pluck is with Graham Motion's barn now since leaving Pletcher and will most likely reemerge at Tampa Bay Downs today.

Without Pluck, I like the promise of Queen'splatekitten. With a name like that, the Canadian bred Kitten's Joy colt will have serious expectations when he returns north to Woodbine. Loved the late kick last time out. The pick.

Master Dunker is a bit more seasoned than Queen'splatekitten and Trainer Fawkes comes in off of two solid races at GP. Fawkes clips along at 33% in graded stakes and clearly finds good spots in the conditions book.

Ari C is a bit of stretch but not unreasonable. The stable mate of Queen'splatekitten looks like the best of the bunch.

At 5:20 Eastern or five minutes before the final leg of the Gulfstream Park late pick three the Tampa Bay Derby goes off. With no Uncle Mo, Brethren is the looming monster both on the track and at the betting window. The son of Distorted Humor comes in off a 4 length win as the chalk. Expect to see more speed from him as he'll have to string some sub :23 3/5 times together to draw clear of this bunch.

Free Entry is trained by Chad Brown who combines with Alan Garcia to win 30% of their races. The horse has shown a strong late kick and expect to see him sitting just off the pace to apply the pressure to Brethren.

Watch Me Go will bring early speed and if he has much left at the end i see him holding on for a placing on the exotics I'm building.

The horse I am interested in seeing run is Beamer. The son of Vindication out of an Unbridled mare, Untarnished. I love seeing the two old lions in winter, Jim Tafel and Carl Nafzger campaigning together, something that makes horse racing so special.

And in Race 10, the Gulfstream Park Handicap, four or possibly five of the field of eight have honest to goodness legitimate win potential and that is something that should get bettors salivating. As I said previously, I'm backing Soaring Empire but will be watching the tote board and looking for some value in a defensive win bet and exacta. I like the son of Empire Maker's last two GP outings, and I like how he settled and rallied behind Tackleberry last time out.

Oh how tight this one appears to me. Hard to deny just how well Takleberry has run at GP this meet and the pride of Luis Olivares's barn will be strong and hard to beat again today.

The Duke of Mischief is ALWAYS in a position to win but hasn't won in his last four races. Only millionaire in the field, Fawkes puts Joe Bravo up after the injury to regular rider Coa.

Rule makes his third start after a very long layoff. He ran well for Trainer Pletcher and team WinStar in the Hal's Hope and faltered when it counted in the Donn. The horse has great numbers: 8 of 8 in the money on fast dirt, 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and 3 of 3 in the money at GP but no wins.

And finally at Santa Anita at about 7:07 Eastern, or about an hour after the Turk has his daily vitamin intake of one rare piece of aged beef, The San Felipe goes off with a field of big names and it is shaping up to be a wide open affair. Runflatout is one victory removed from being a maiden, but what promise and potential. Trainer Sadler and jock Rosario combine for a 28% win rate over 99 races at SA. Training very sharply, I particularly liked the 1:24 2/5ths 7f work and the 1:10 2/5ths 6f work in past two weeks.

Awesome Patriot returns after looking so good over the slop late last year here. Training well for Baffert, Bejarano is up. Baffert's other entry is new to the barn, Jaycito, with Garcia up. I'm taking a watch and see approach.

Premier Pegasus goes for Kwon Cho Myung. As Little Turk is Korean, we are partial to him. A 96 BSF in the San Vincente, he loses the blinkers and comes in off a strong :57 3/5ths work this week.

Watch for Albergetti to burn it up out of the gate. Comma to the Top needs to show something on dirt today. I like Quail Hill, especially at the price he'll be fetching.

Betting to me is a secondary issue today, I'm going to enjoy the bets I make of course, but today is about being a fan. A day after those idiots in the National Football League couldn't figure out a way to split up the money they fleece from suckers like me, I'm reminded that my favorite equine stars never go on strike, never holdout, are never locked out, and would literally work for sugar cubes and peppermints. The Life at Ten fiasco illustrates how humans do their best to screw up a sport that the masses just don't seem to appreciate anymore, but that's their loss and not ours friends.


Last but not least, we remember Uncle Domenico Schepis, Mama Turk's uncle who passed away in the small Sicilian village of Condro`. I am the superstitious type and the man we use to call 'Memo, or Uncle 'Memo, sure is close to Uncle Mo. That's good enough for me. Rest in Peace Uncle 'Memo.

The Dirty Derby Dozen Poll: Call to Post-1st Edition: January 20, 2011

Another year, and another gathering of some of the brightest, most articulate voices from the new and old media covering horse racing....and me.

Yeah, the Ol' Turk is a hack but somehow got himself invited to join this prestigious group lead by our host and friend, Steve from Wireplayers.com.

Our mission is to take the pulse of three year old horse racing every three weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby and hopefully identify the contenders, eliminate the pretenders, and most importantly, add some snarky yet poignant comments along the way.

Let's get after it!



We'll be back in three weeks and update after a few key prep races. Have fun with it, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day November 6, 2010: The Breeders' Cup Juvenile as well as final Breeders' Cup Thoughts

The Turk needed a 600 mile ride and a full day and a half to reflect on the events I witnessed at the Breeders' Cup. I offer my unvarnished opinion on Life at Ten and Workforce after I work through my post race analysis of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile which I handicapped for the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner. For those who pay attention to that stuff, my superfecta bet would have netted $535.20 and grossed $857.20 if bet exactly the way I laid out on my Thursday posting. As my regular readers know, I don't advocate ever betting anyone blind; Handicapping is the fun, don't deny yourself that opportunity.

Anyway, it was an impressive showing for Uncle Mo. I had Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova rated even going into the race but it was pretty clear at this point in their careers Uncle Mo is superior. With power and professional fractions, Uncle Mo struck the lead and gave the most empathic statement of the weekend.

The most disappointing run of the race for me was Jaycito, who I thought was the best of the synthetic runners transitioning to dirt. I also had J.P's Gusto and J.B.'s Thunder reversed in terms of who would do better on the dirt. What I did well was identify that the chalk was the real deal and I didn't oversell Biondetti, Rouge Romance or Jaycito, which seemed to be fashionable contrarian views. Take the time to watch Jaycito: Clearly not liking dirt in his face, Mike Smith took him way wide and at the top of the stretch brought him back to the rail and he was stretching out nice at the end. He's got a lot to prove on dirt but watch him when he returns to the fake stuff.







Handicapping for exotics is all about "slotting" where the horses will end up within the field. In this race it was identifying that there was a talent gap between 1/2 and the rest of the field and that talent gap was on display. You can still make money betting chalk, as my handicap and bet results prove, but it's a dangerous game friends and you really should walk before you run.

Did you watch how powerful Uncle Mo looked as he pulled away in the final 1/16 of a mile. Power. Speed. I wish we'd get a good ol' fashioned 3 YO campaign where he'd race in January, February, March, the Wood Memorial/Arkansas Derby/Santa Anita Derby (suddenly relevant to dirt again) and then the Kentucky Derby. The idea he will only race twice before the Derby is maddening to me but I'm not a "super trainer".

Speaking of the "Super Trainer", I think its a horrible offense played on the bettors to put Life at Ten in the gate only to watch her cantor about with no real attempt to engage the field. I give credit to Workforce's connection's, especially Michael Stoute, for making what was surely the poor financial but right horse advocate position, to not race in the Breeders'Cup Turf. He protected his horse and he protected the $2 punter and for this he was attacked by the establishment as not being "sporting".

I was also happy that Mine That Bird was retired. I might be 110% wrong but I think Trainer Lukas did a horrible job with this horse and the established voices in horse racing are loathe to criticize him.

My Rodney Dangerfield Eclipse award goes to Fly Down: he hangs around and makes you respect him to hit the ticket. Could be a fun four year old. I'm quite frankly tired of this year's 3 YO's. Looking at Lucky may be the best of the bunch but he's flawed too and may be good but doesn't appear to be great. What was Paddy o' Prado doing in the Classic?

Getting back to the Super Trainer, Quality Road had no business in the Classic. Are you telling me he isn't better than Big Drama who won the $2.0 MM Sprint? Anyone remember the Amsterdam? How about the sporting thing to do and take on Goldikova like Gio Ponti did? I love Quality Road and he's been mismanaged for two years in my moronic and humble opinion. The horse won because he was talented and won in spite of his connections. I love Freddie Head and his lifes arc that lead him to this moment with Goldikova. She is so powerful.

The Turk loves Dakota Phone. I saw him for the first time in a sizzling Place to Rail Trip in the Santana Mile on Santa Anita Derby Day 2009. He makes you forget and then, bam! Same goes for Shared Account, who the Little Turk loves and was rewarded for at 46-1. Here Comes Ben disappointed in front of the home crowd. Did you see the betting action on Sidney's Candy? The bettors third choice, a head scratcher to me, again good, not great. Blame was professional and workmanlike. No reason to say goodbye, I wish he ran next year. I was more impressed by Zenyatta's final 1/2 mile than anything else I saw all weekend. She was wonderful and she has my vote for Horse of the Year although no one cares what I vote.


And in the "this never gets old" category, I bring to you Adolph's reaction following Zenyatta's defeat.

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs

The Turk took on an assignment at the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner to handicap a winner in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. For better writing and some pretty nifty handicapping, take a swing by the Handicapper's Corner as well as the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page for some of the most insightful takes in racing.

Two year old horses are difficult to handicap using my traditional methodology. The reason is that their past performances are fairly scant, with this field of ten averaging 3.2 starts in their careers so far. Instead of worrying about what we don't have, let's take stock in what we do have and figure out how to use it best: We have past performances with 16 Graded Stakes starts combined to glean from, we have basic pedigree information, we have trainer/jockey statistics, quite a bit of video on nearly every entrant, and most of all, we have our experience and feel to guide us. What we don't want is our heads filled with the hype laden articles that are floating around proclaiming the next Arazi or Secretariat; Remember, when looking at the winners of this race you won't find unforgettable careers, mostly mixed racing success and a few very good stallions. Let's get after it!

Post 1 Biondetti: The son of Bernardini was born in Kentucky runs in Godolphin silks for conditioner Mahmood Al Zarooni. 3 for 3 lifetime record with a win at 1 mile on Turf in Italy on a straight away, at 7 furlongs on fake dirt at Kempton and a 7 furlong straight away fake dirt run. He represents Bernadini's first Grade I winner. He's on Lasix for the first time with A. Ajtebi up, the pilot of last year's winner, Vale of York. Let's give Godolphin credit for going on the dirt, something they don't do easily or willingly.

Grade I Gran Criterium San Siro Italy



Take what you can from this turf race. Biondetti surges to the lead under a vigorous ride but never fully extends and the Place horse stops his drive just as he pulls alongside to pass. I have him somewhere around :11 2/5ths for the final 1/8 mile (very unofficial). With this being his first dirt action, I don't see enough to sway me yet but make no mistake, he's a classy horse bred for two turns and dirt shouldnt be a problem.

Post 2: Boys of Tosconova: Dick Dutrow trained, this son of Officer out of Little Bonnet maybe lacking in a Class match-up, but a win at Saratoga in the Grade I Hopeful, a win at Belmont, and a Place in the Grade II Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs makes him one of the major contenders. Watch Boys of Tosconova, with R. Dominguez up, taunt them as he cruises by.






I really like the sharp and regular work that the horse has gotten at 5 and 6 furlongs since early September. Dutrow's stats are impressive anyway, but 25% of his 2 YO's win, 31% of his 60-180 day layoffs win, 30% of his last winners win. Officer was "distance challenged" but Little Bonnet felt comfortable staying and the results are intriguing.

Post 3: J.B.'s Thunder: A son of mighty Thunder Gulch out of Rebridled Dreams, conditioned by Albert M. Stall Jr. for Columbine Stable. Two starts, two wins, including the Grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity on fake dirt and a turf win at Saratoga. It's his first dirt effort, but he's got the pedigree for that.





He strikes the lead and he doesn't give it up in either of these races. On Breeders' Cup Friday, few closers got very close to the horse at the front by the 1/8 pole. A nice 4 furlong :47 bullet shows he will strike the lead but will he keep it is the question.

Post 4: J.P.'s Gusto: A son Successful Appeal out of Call Her Magic, trained by David Hofmans for Gem Stable. Six starts already with four Wins and one Place with a Place in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes at Hollywood, a Win at the Grade I Del Mar Futurity, as well as Grade II and III win. Not shabby but Jaycito seemed better in the last two races and that's what I take away from this. First time dirt as well, he too likes the front.





Post 5: Riveting Reason: Watch the two previous videos of the Norfolk and Del Mar Futurity and you'll find this Maiden. Blinkers on today for Korean Conditioner Cho Myung Kwon, this son of Fusaichi Pegasus will be up against it.

Post 6: Stay Thirsty: Another Bernardini son along as is Biondetti, has one win in three starts and was out finished at 7f by Boys of Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga. Trainer Pletcher has worked Stay Thirsty six times since mid September at Belmont with the most impressive at 5f in 1:00 and 1/5th. Pletcher's stats are impressive: 25% winners on over 60 day layoffs, 25% 2YO, 23% sprint to route, 24% two sprints/route, 26% dirt, 22% routes. The horse is uncoupled from stable mate Uncle Mo with Castellano up, no slouch at 20% himself.

Here's the Hopeful again.



Post 7: Uncle Mo: Hard to ignore the hype here. Son of Indian Charlie, from Playa Maya (Arch) ran an incredible Grade I Champagne as the heavy chalk in early October and appears cocked and loaded for a big effort here.



Breaking his maiden by nearly 15 lengths at Saratoga on August 28



Post 8: Murjan: Another son of Officer, out of Miss Jean Cat, this Kentucky born Peruvian runner is also an impressive 3 for 3 winning by a combined 27 3/4 lengths in the process. A surprising amount of video is available, and anyone who follows racing and is on Facebook or blogs knows the passion our South American horse racing friends have! He gets 262 race winner R. Bejarano up and lasix for the first time.





Post 9: Rouge Romance: This son of Smarty Jones trained by Kenny McPeak has three starts, winning two including the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland. A very sharp 5f bullet in :58 2/5ths over the fake stuff on October 23rd shows very tight form. McPeek wins 21% of his Turf/Dirt switches but is only an 8% (with 92 tries) in Graded Stakes.



Post 10: Jaycito: < This new star from Zayat Stables, trained by Mike Mitchell, is sired by Victory Gallop out of Night Edition .A Place in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity and a Win in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes at Oaktree at Hollywood. Again, I think he shows the best when compared with other synthetic runners horses.





So what do we make of all this? It's hard to ignore the strong dirt form of Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova with the tier just below them being Jaycito and Stay Thirsty. I'm going to look to cover at least three of these horses in a multi race Pick 3 and I'll build what I think is the possible Superfecta outcome for this race. As much as I'd like to show you a long price winning, I just don't see it.






The Turk is taking a handicappers holiday at the Breeders' Cup so I'm sorry if I have disappointed any of my hard core degenerate fans. I'm having too much fun seeing so many of my favorite horses and Little Turk and I are handicapping pretty good winners and straight exactas between races to keep us warm! I am really geeked up to see Gio Ponti, Goldikova, Here Comes Ben, Quality Road, Blame, Haynesfield, and Zenyatta. It's going to be a good day! That's Little Turk above with his 46-1 ticket for Shared Account. He took a position and never wavered. Money Baby

Have fun, Turk out!

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Homework Session Part 4

The Turk has a big assignment this week and one that he's woefully prepared to handle: Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Readers of The Turk know that I'm not a big fan of the Del Mar, Keeneland or Saratoga baby watch and that two year olds just aren't my bag. That said it's a challenge that I look forward to and its not that I can't or haven't handicapped two year olds, I just don't generally care to.

In order to prepare, I have to do my homework. It's important you understand the players and without alot of information to go by on the PP's, all you really have is your eye, the pedigree, and a leap of faith.

In this fourth and final homework session for this race I present to you Riveting Reason, Rogue Romance, Stay Thirsty and the presumed morning line favorite, Uncle Mo. Let's get after it friends!

Riveting Reason: Trainer/Owner Cho Myung Kwon campaigns this son of Fusaichi Pegasus. The Foolish Pleasure is asking the question on many people's minds now, who is Cho Myung Kwon? With Little Turk hailing from Pusan, South Korea, we are partial to this runner as well.

Riveting Reason was in a good stalking position but never seemed to accelerate here in the Norfolk at the Oak Tree at Hollywood. He was striding nicely, just slow behind Jaycito and J.P's Gusto.



And another uninspiring effort by Riveting Reason in the Del Mar Futurity. Watch it again for Jaycito's strong finish and J.P. Gusto's front running.



Rogue Romance: This son of Smarty Jones trained by Kenny McPeak has three starts, winning two including the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland. A very sharp 5f bullet in :58 2/5ths over the fake stuff on October 23rd shows very tight form.



Stay Thirsty: Another Bernardini son along with Biondetti has one win in three starts and was out finished at 7f by Boys of Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga. Trainer Pletcher has worked Stay Thirsty six times since mid September at Belmont with the most impressive at 5f in 1:00 and 1/5th. Pletcher's stats are hard to gage: 25% winners on over 60 day layoffs, 25% 2YO, 23% sprint to route, 24% two sprints/route, 26% dirt, 22% routes.



And finally, Uncle Mo. A son of Indian Charlie, from Playa Maya (Arch). Pletcher's other Repole Stable runner won in convincing style in the Grade I Champagne.



Breaking his maiden by nearly 15 lengths at Saratoga on August 28



In Zen terms, we should approach this with a beginners mind. Not beginers in the sense of a neopyte handicapper but as one without a hype filled, preconcieved winner already residing within or Turk craniums.

Who's gonna win? Who knows. Uncle Mo will be a safe pick and Boys of Tosconova and Jaycito will be more stylish because of better prices, but I'm not convinced yet. I'll be back tomorrow with an initial base handicap.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!