The Nomination Is In: The Belmont Stakes G1

American Pharoah: Photo by Mike Sekulic

Hello Friends and Welcome to the Final Triple Crown Edition of 2015.

While I believe in general we use words, adjectives, too liberally when describing the brilliance of horses, winning the first two legs of the Crown earns you respect, winning all three puts you in the Hall of Fame, remembered forever.

As we are an older fan base, for better or worse, most of us, including me,  have fond memories of Seattle Slew and Affirmed's Triple Crown years.  They were larger than life, and it seemed like the Country stopped for a few minutes to watch the race, and then celebrated the achievement like you would today a great Superbowl.  It was an era before the idea of a Hollywood Race Track being torn down could even be imagined and when Hialeah was treasured as the Saratoga of the South.  Today's race will be held in a facility that is not maintained properly and maybe 25% fewer people will be in attendance than would like too because its just not safe to have 130,000 in the building anymore.

I could lament these things about the sport, but the Old Turk isn't a "lamenter" nor do I pretend to have the answers to what ails our sport.  I'll leave that for real journalists and I'll continue to be the hack handicapper that I am.

Let's get it on!

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	American Pharoah/5	A+++
Place	Frosted/6	A---
Show	Materiality/8	B+
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	B
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	B-
	Tale of Verve/2	C
	Keen Ice/7	C
	Frammento/4	C-
	Belmont Park Race 11: Post Time 6:50 ET	The Belmont Stakes G1
	1 1/2 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

The field isn't that impressive and a bit small for this handicapper's liking.  On paper and on Big Sandy, American Pharoah has more class and appears poised to achieve true greatness.  As a horse racing fan, that's wonderful and everything, but I'm trying to make ROI here on my betting capital. What do I need?  With American Pharoah going into the gate at 3-5 or even worse, I'd like to see him valiantly fight, rally, and be passed by two longer prices at the wire.  

	Win	Place	Show
Win	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5
Place	Frosted/6	Frosted/6	Frosted/6
Show	Materiality/8	Materiality/8	Materiality/8
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3
	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2
	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7
	Frammento/4	Frammento/4	Frammento/4
$2 Boxed Trifecta: 5-1-6-8-1-3= $120 $0.50 Version=$30
	Win	Place	Show
Win	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5
Place	Frosted/6	Frosted/6	Frosted/6
Show	Materiality/8	Materiality/8	Materiality/8
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3
	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2
	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7
	Frammento/4	Frammento/4	Frammento/4
$2 Exacta Box: 5-6-8-1-3=$40
$2 Exacta Box: 6-8-1-3 OVER 5-6-8-1-3-2-7=$48
$2 Exacta Box 6-8-1-3 OVER 1-2-3-6-7-8= $40

I'm pegging American Pharoah winning at 40% and 70% in Win or Place.  

One approach could be to just single American Pharoah and then take the rest of the non-tossed field and fill in Exacta/Tri and Super bets.  A 5 with 1-3-6-8 Over 1-3-6-8 would cost $24.  I really don't see the point.

I think it may be worth a $40 flyer on my NON American Pharoah exacta bet:  6-8-1-3 OVER 6-8-1-3-7-8 for $40 Bucks or you could toss American Pharoah into the Place Spot and spend $48.

Tossing American Pharoah again out of the top two, you could go 6-8-1-3 and then in Place add in Keen Ice and Tale of Verve, leaving only Belmont kill joy, Nick Zito's Frammento, uncovered.  

Have some fun with it and Good Luck to American Pharoah and all of his connections.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 145th Belmont Stakes Grade 1

The Belmont: A Cecil B. Demile production

Who is going to win the Belmont Turk?  I don't know!  I handicap.  Handicapping is controlling variables and assigning percentages to the horses  and hoping they run on the track as they appear on paper.  Throw all that crap out the window today:  a very wet racetrack, a big field, and a crazy distance where the pace through the first mile or so very well will decide who will be in contention in the last 1/8 of a mile. 

It is unfortunate that the weather has been so bad, as the race on paper, the analysis of the past performances, is compelling stuff.  The rain should be gone, but the damage is done with the track listed as muddy currently. The track drains well and they will work it quite a bit, so I'm not going to worry too much about it and just build the bets the way I see them.

Which leads me to my next problem:  The way I see it is murky.  A gentleman I work with will often refer to overstaffed efforts as a "Cecil B. Demile" production, think a cast of thousands, epic in scope.  14 tired horses at 10 panels can often make for shear madness at 12 panels. 

I started my handicapping today with trying to identify some toss horses.  My preconceived Superfecta bet strategy is to single a winner and have a cast of thousands beneath, but I'd like to toss at least four out of the boat. 

Frac Daddy/1: Low Wet Track Tominson and never won past 1 1/16 miles.  have to go back to November 2012 for last win.

Giant Finish/4:  Low on the Class Scale, slow on the Beyer Scale, two wins in NYS restricted races.

Midnight Taboo/8: Lightly raced Repole/Pletcher combination, seems to be vanity entry.

Vyjack/11:  I like this horse, but this is gambling not Facebook Horse "Like" personality contests.  Very poor Kentucky Derby effort off a pretty good Wood Memorial.  Tough call, but I need to make some tough calls. 

Let's get it on!



My view of the field is that Orb is the best horse in the gate.  You have never, ever, read the Turk whining after a race about the trip, I don't indulge in such loser talk, but Orb didn't have a great ground saving run, or better put, ground saving but slowed.



I'm going to build some sensible sized Superfecta and Exacta bets around Orb singled on top and use the Cecil B. Demile cast of thousands wheeled underneath him in the Superfecta.  In the Exacta I'm only interested in value so my $14 bet may be adjust slightly depending on tote board odds at 6:40 ET. 

Have fun friends.  The Turk isn't that into the Belmont quite frankly, I'm not sure why, but I won't fake horse fan excitement.  The turf races are what I really enjoy on Belmont day but I'll pass because of the conditions.  Hollywood Park has a few nice turf races today and hopefully I have profits waiting out West. 

Mrs. Turk is betting Golden Soul and Little Turk thinks a "Filly in the Belmont" is worth taking. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 144th Belmont Stakes Superfecta

I scrapped the blog entry that I wrote, just hit the delete button, right after the news that I'll Have Another was scratched. I considered not blogging or betting at all. Just numb. If you're reading a horse racing blog, I'm betting you know exactly what I mean.

Secretariat doesn't belong to me. In 1973 I was seven, and while my parents saw Secretariat race, those feelings aren't first person to me. Affirmed, different story. While hard for young people now to believe, horse racing was on television, was covered in Sports Illustrated, was in the daily newspapers. I remember like yesterday sitting at a family first communion party for my little cousin watching Affirmed win the Kentucky Derby. I remember vividly coming home from school to check the mail for my SI magazine. I experienced that Triple Crown as a horse racing fan, not a bettor, and the thrill of it is still deep set within me. I was convinced Big Brown was going to win. Take Desormeaux off and I would have declared it a lock. I liked I'll Have Another coming out of Santa Anita Derby, but I wasn't sold until the Preakness stretch run. My deleted blog entry singled I'll Have Another in the Superfecta, I thought he would win the Triple Crown. I had his summer mapped out in my mind. I saw him winning the Goodwood G1 before winning The Breeders' Cup Classic. Hope dashed, yet hope still springs eternal. Another Triple Crown season will come next year and another chance to fall wildly in love with a horse, a jockey and even a trainer and connections that while flawed, are really just a mirror of society in general.

I think this is a decent betting race still and I've built a 10 Cent and $1 Dollar Superfecta that has some value. Let's get after it!



A Baffert/Lucas Exacta- Is this 1999 or 2012? I like Paynter on top, but more gut feel than anything. Less polished that Dullahan or Union Rags, he's sharp and rested. Quite a class jump, but 4 of the last 5 Belmont Winners were starting their first Triple Crown race. Not singled, but solid value and a legit shot.

Optimizer is me being a bit, optimistic. Trainer Lucas finally broke his year long Graded Stakes slump. This English Channel son should still be running with a 1/4 mile to go. What a story this would make: Lukas, freshly stitched up, in a late career swoon. Storybook.

Dullahan has winner's credentials and I mean him no disrespect, I'm just thinking a bit different today. Roman's training regime, especially the the 4f :45 4/5ths run blow and the 1 mile work is mastercraftsman like. Winless in four tries on dirt.

Union Rags is a nice horse but not a great horse yet. I think he could be a very good handicap division horse and if he comes out of today healthy he still has a late summer and fall to make some noise with. I can't see a win, but just too good to ignore. I like the jock switch as Leparoux didn't seem to get the best of him this year.

Street Life goes for Chad Brown and has lots of talent. Five Sixteen is a gelded son of Invasor. Gut call.

After such a let down, today will just be about what could have been and a bit of fun with who's still left.

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Manhattan Handicap and Belmont Stakes

Sometimes you have to change positions on the fly. I went into the day thinking Pick 4 at Belmont, but I just couldn't get my hands around the way the track is playing and I chose not to place a Pick 4 wager. Good thing, as I would never have picked Justin Phillip in the Woody Stephen.

Pick and choose your spots, and on days with tough weather, watch the races closely. I've got HRTV on, streaming through my Mac Mini that is HDMI'd into the TV and its pretty clear that spreed is striking the lead and staying over distance. It's sloppy and ugly and that's a wild card as a bettor you can either accept and live with, or, novel idea, just don't bet. Anyone who tells you they are a disciplined bettor but then talks about being an action play bettor isn't being honest with themselves or you.

Let's get after these nice Grade I events and do our best with the surfaces.

BEL Race 10 and 11: The Grade I Manhattan Handicap and Grade I Belmont Stakes



I'm going to let the spreadsheet speak for itself and I'm going to instead start mixing drinks and enjoy the rest of the day. These Triple Crown days are fantastic friends and family events and I use them as an opportunity to invite people to the house and spread the gospel of racing. I'm doing my part to market the sport...and drink bourbon!

I'm going Superfecta hunting, have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: June 5, 2010; The Belmont Stakes Grade I on Dirt

If there is a future for horse racing it will only come when families embrace the sport, talk about it, watch it together and make it part of their shared experience. We need more Aunt Rosie's. My dear Aunt Rosie passed away several years ago now. She lived life to its fullest and passed over to the other side and awaits her family. Somewhere, on the other side, she may be running a sports book, and she most definitely has the ponies on her mind. I spent alot of time with Aunt Rosie when I was very young and she remains one of the biggest influences in my life. We didn't see each other much after I left for the Navy and then returned home to raise my own family, but she was never far from my heart, and when we got together, we always talked horses. Several years back, just after she died, I had a dream the morning of the Belmont Stakes and Aunt Rosie visited me and asked me who I liked. I told her I liked Rags to Riches. She told me she loved the Grey/Roans and I told her I didn't think she was grey and that I would go home and get the Daily Race Form and come right back and she told me OK, but she was really telling me goodbye. It was her, her voice, her manner of speaking, yet she was wrapped in burial cloth. I loved my Aunt Rosie and I look forward to talking the ponies with her again one day.

If there is a future for horse racing as we still know it, it will be people in our families talking to friends and family about this wonderful sport and making it part of the daily conversation again. Enough about the Turk, let's get after it!

Belmont Park Race 11: The Belmont Grade I; 1 1/2 Miles on Dirt for 3 YOs



This isn't exactly the type of year that encourages new fans and you have to wonder what a Triple Crown winner would do for generating interest. Well, the horses had a different idea. What we have on our hands today is a collection of runners that range from mediocre to some level that I'm still not sure of. You take this mix of runners and you throw them into Big Sandy and ask them to run a 1/4 of a mile farther then some of them ever had and 5/16ths of a mile farther then most of them are comfortable doing right now. What's it all mean? Results may vary. But you know what, this is gambling and uncertainty often pays the most money.

I see three horses being better then the rest of the field, Ice Box, Fly Down and First Dude. I'm backing Ice Box to win. The winner of Grade I Florida Derby by a nose, he closed like a frieght train to take second in the Kentucky Derby and was then back benched for the Preakness by Trainer Zito for this moment. A smokin' four furlong bullet in :46 3/5ths at the Saratoga Training Track signals he is ready to rumble. J. Lezcano gets the mount today and he wins 21% of his races with Zito at Belmont and 27% at Belmont overall. He'll be pushed down to 5-4 and maybe less then even money so he doesn't represent value but I think the chalk is pretty heavy. Ice Box should be able to handle the track under any conditions.

Zito's second runner today is Fly Down. A big winner in the Grade II Dwyer at Belmont at 1 1/8 miles a month ago. Expect him to charge hard through the last 1/2 mile and the son of Mineshaft poses a legitimate threat to Icebox.

First Dude, bad name aside, is a Stephen Got Even runner trained by Dale Romans. 4 Places in 7 starts and 6 of 7 in the money lifetime. R Dominguez is up and he's clipping away at 27% through 568 starts in 2010. He'll press the pace and I'm curious if he won't be gasping the last 1/4 mile and possibly give the race up in a stretch duel.

I'm going to betting more inner race then a Pick Three or Pick Four Sequence today for the very simlple reason that the card is a tough one, especially with the potential for bad weather, and Race 8 with Custom for Carlos scratched and Race 9, The Acorn, being so wide open, I just felt like I wasn't prepared to make the financial investment to put together a winning card. That said, I'm thinking Superfecta here at the Belmont Stakes.

I feel pretty good that my Top 3 will be in the Top Four so I'm going to build my base bet with that in mind. The tricky thing is the fourth spot and then a few hedges in case my top three falter. As I build my bets I again feel the overwhelming urge to push away from the table, and if this wasn't a Triple Crown race I would, so I'll keep the risks minor and the chance of reward conservative but worthy. I'm going with a 10 Cent Super as my main bet with 5,6,11 Over 5,6,11 over 4,5,6,7,8,11,12 over 4,5,6,7,8,11,12. This bet drags Make Music For Me, Drosselmeyer, Interactif, and Game On Dude into the 3rd and 4th spots. This bet will cost $12 and I'll bet about $30 total and have some fun with Little Turk assembling some value exactas once we get a bit closer to post time and the odds firm up,

Enjoy the day friends and readers, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 6, 2009: Belmont Stakes Day

Race 6 BEL: The True North Handicap Grade II; 6f on NYS Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



It's always good to start your betting day off strong. Prerace, I wasn't thrilled with the six horse field, and I didn't see anyway that Benny the Bull and Fabulous Strike would not finish one-two. I picked Benny the Bull because I wanted a better payoff, but I thought that was an easy Exacta bet, and it was , returning $12.40 on a boxed bet.

Where I think this old Turk did well and what got me excited was I was much higher on Silver Edition then the betting public was. I had him third in my pre race analysis while the bettors had him last. Silver Edition did indeed take third and i was rewarded with $177.00 in Trifecta, for a race take of $189 bucks on $12 investment.




Race 9 BEL: The Acorn Grade I: 1 Mile on NYS Dirt for 3YO Fillies.



As a handicapper, you really can't beat yourself up after you just miss one. I like to make the analogy of a cornerback who just gave up a deep ball and has to go back out there the next play. One needs a short memory as there will be time for analysis later.

I wouldn't have picked Gabby's Golden Girl if I had 10 more chances. I just didn't see it coming. I accurately had the chalk, Justwhistledixie in the Place spot but not much else went right.



Race 10 BEL: The Manhattan Handicap Grade I: 1 1/4 miles on Turf for 3 YO and Up.



Another race, same results. I tied my handicap to Cowboy Cal who took the lead at the top of the stretch and then faded. So we moved along to the main event.



Race 11 BEL: The Belmont Stakes Grade I; 1 1/2 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YO.



The Turk tried to make a good bet for the Appleton Turk, two $10 win bets on Dunkirk and Charitable Man. I should have added her money to the Superfecta bet that I made and we would have made some serious hay!

All in all it was a good day of handicapping for the Turk. I hope my fellow bloggers who were there had a great time.



Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Belmont Stakes Grade I; June 6, 2009

As I got myself excited for the Belmont Stakes, I watched the video of 2007 Belmont Stakes Winner Rags to Riches several times and skipped the 2008 video of Big Brown's belly flop. Let's hope for an exciting and safe trip for all the horses today.

After handicapping several Belmont Stakes Day races, I finally turned my attention to the main event and I realized I didn't need to do much study. Right or wrong, for better or worse, these horses are a know quantity. What thier current form is, sometimes that's the hard thing to nail down, but what the are capable of I think is crystal clear. They do run on sandy NYS dirt instead of paper, so the horse that brings guts and heart, along with ability and current form, should win this test of champions.

Race 11 BEL: The Belmont Stakes Grade I: 1 1/2 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



At this stage, I think you have to let your base handicap ride. I'm playing with 20 bucks of the newest member of the Turk clan, a lady we'll refer to as The Appleton Turk, so we're just going to run the traps.

I like The Trifecta of Mine That Bird, Dunkirk and Charitable Man, and I like them in any order. I will go Super Hunting as well and I'll build a few 10 cent boxed tickets together with Flying Private, Summer Bird, Miner's Escape, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff in the four hole.

It's been a great time blogging the Triple Crown prep races and then the races themselves. Enjoy. Turk out!