The Nomination Is In: The American Oaks G1 at Santa Anita

 

Skims

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, which remarkably is about to begin our 15th providing horse racing handicaps. The blog's focus is turf racing, generally 4 YO and up. For 14 years the title of my blog was The Turk: Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks, but we've dropped the Hijinks and added Hockey. Why hockey? It's my 1A sports love, along with horse racing. My point of view will be to write about my favorite team, The Buffalo Sabres, as they continue to build the organization from the lows they reached (longest playoff drought in league history). Anyways, lets get back to horse racing, opening day Santa Anita, and the marquee race of the day, The American Oaks G1.

As I said earlier, I like older horses, primarily because I like more information to work with for handicapping.  That said, these top flight 3 YO Fillies have plenty of experience on their past performances to work with.   I like to follow the 4 YOs through their season, watching the progression that the trainers take through the conditions book. Journeymen are Journeymen, but the special runners get treated special.  You never really know what the ceiling of a horse is until it reaches Grade 1 company.  Some fold and wither under the pressure, and some relish it.  I like the bigger fields that turf racing usually affords me, as the opportunity to find the underlay is omnipresent. Let's get after it!

15 Oct 2022 Aqueduct:  Sands Point Stakes G2: 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf

 

 Hard not to like Skims there, last time out.  3 Wins in 9 Turf Starts, 5 of 7 in the money in 2022.  Strong late turn of foot.  Checks the Class box.  Same race you also saw Pizza Bianca.  Not sure what to make of this 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner.  Most of her efforts at 1 Mile.  I'm not sure her own connections have decoded her yet.  Talented enough, but a real wild card and with the stretch out, I'm not expecting much.

13 November 22 Aqueduct:  The Winter Memories $135K; 1 1/16 on Yielding Turf

The Chad Brown runner Salimah (Ire) looked like she really took to the yielding turf of Big A.  She does have two firm turf wins in her very limited racing sample size.  Prat up, and Brown/Prat are 30% winners overall with 200 races over a one rolling year.  

24 Nov 22 Del Mar:  The Red Carpet G3; 1 3/8 Mile Firm Turf.  

Bellstreet Bridie (GB) comes in fresh off an extra furlong  effort at Del Mar, drawing off easily.  9 of 10 in the money over grass, 5 of 6 in the money at this distance, and 9 of 10 in the money in 2022, with most of her efforts except the Red Carpet in UK.  Lots to like but small sample size in US.

I have a trio of runners rounding out my potentials.  Mise En Scene (GB) has very good early tactical speed.  Last out in the Breeders' Cup F&M Turf,  this is only second North American effort. Winless since August 2021.  Will draw betting capital, just not sure how wisely yet.  The three are rounded out by two honest runners, Rhea Moon (Ire) and Sparkle Blue.  Similar speed, similar Class jump, 3 turf wins each, slight advantage to D'Amato's Rhea Moon for 4 for 4 in the money Santa Anita.   

So what to do with this?  Bet it first of all, you want chaos and lots of betting interests to make the return worthwhile.  $2 Bet 7 OVER-9-5-8-1-2-6 for $12.  That's just my first thought, I'll be interested to see how the public views before placing bet.  I may even sign up for 9 Over 7-5-1-6 for $8. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 14 July 2012: The A Gleam and American Oaks at Hollywood Park

Beautiful Switch, after such a tough 2011 campaign, bounces back strong in last weekend's American Oaks, securing a starting position in the 2012 Breeders'Cup.

The American Oaks was the sort of handicap that reminds me that I'm pretty good at what I do. That's not cockiness, and its not arrogance, it's confidence. I'm placing my hard earned investment capital on the line and I need to know that I am not going to turn a big pile of money into a much smaller pile.

Handicapping isn't my problem, it's the easier part of the two part equation. Bet construction is always the most critical piece of the puzzle. I'm a Superfecta and Pick 4 fella and there's a fine line between overcovering and undercovering, spending too much or too little. I find that while tedious, I must keep good betting records and constantly analyze if my ROI meets or exceeds my investment hurdle.

Just using these two races as an example, the two superfectas cost me $480; That's more than I'm usually comfortable investing but I felt confident that I would hit one or both. Again, arrogance? No, my readers will see a continual involvement of myself at Hollywood this meet. I watched video every race day and I studied the race charts of every stakes and high level allowance race. At the end of each meet is when I do my best, a nugget only gleaned by self analysis.

The rare occasion for me comes along when Handicap and Bet Construction are both perfect. This wasn't one of those weeks, as I rushed the bet construction because of time constraints.

It's always better to realize you made a mistake while not costing yourself too much money. I made about $1,000 last weekend, so why am I so gloomy? At an investment of $480 if I don't win every three races I'm losing money, and again, with an investment hurdle of 20% ROI, I need to win more than 2 out of 3. I'm not that good!

I screwed up but it didn't cost me badly, but its the type of bad habit that can be the difference between a good disciplined bettor with a positive ROI, and a unsuccessful bettor.



The A Gleam Handicap Grade 2



The American Oaks Grade 1



You don't have to become a CPA to have good betting history, and in fact most online betting options have exportable histories to EXCEL. I keep a running spreadsheet and I make a point of reviewing my investment results every week. betting on horses is alot of fun, but winning those bets is even more fun!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: Hollywood Race Track on Saturday: A Gleam and American Oaks

The all business, Lady of Shamrock, with Mike Smith up, daughter of Scat Daddy, looks to take the next step in filly turf racing in this weekend's American Oaks at Hollywood Park. Thanks to Benoit for the wonderful action picture.

California racing shifts to Del Mar on Wednesday but the Turk will be saying goodbye to California racing until the fall meet at Santa Anita. I'm a hypocrite, I know, but I do well on some fake dirt courses, and Hollywood seems to be one of them, and I don't do well at others, and Del Mar seems to resemble that remark. The Turk's been spending quite a bit of time in Southern California lately and I hope to make a trip to Del Mar in the next few weeks to try and improve on my putrid feel for the racing there.

Is Saratoga really upon us? I preferred opening day on a Wednesday, and I'd rather see a shorter meet with fewer races than a watered down product, but the NYRA doesn't ask my opinion. The Turk will be there opening day as well as several other times throughout the meet, including Alabama and Woodward Day. Why don't I have the same aversion to playing Saratoga as I do Del Mar? I'm not that good at Saratoga either, but hey, I'm an established hypocrite, see my previous paragraph.

What The Turk is, besides being a hypocrite, is a disciplined bettor. I'll handicap a track for days without placing a bet- I like to get a feel for how things are playing on both surfaces and at different distances before I wager hard earned investment capital. At Hollywood, Santa Anita, Woodbine, Arlington and Churchill Downs that approach seems to work and I get locked into a serious winning riff. That approach doesn't cut it at Del Mar and at Saratoga the jury is out on my lifetime ROI, but if I had the nerve to look, I'd say not so good.

All that said, I'll be handicapping lots of races at Saratoga and some at Del Mar, never let it be said I didn't warn you to take these picks with much skepticism.

Let's get after this!

BHP Race 8 and 9: Saturday July 14



I have loved the quality of runners at Hollywood all meet. There are no world beaters, but some really competitive horses and some quality fields. I think these races are no exception.

In the A Gleam, I'm dropping a Thoroughbred Legends Stable runner, Glamorista in as the chalk: 4 of 5 lifetime in the money for this lightly raced mare, a step up in class, but I like the odds this horse will go off at and I'll cover her in all spots in my Super. Sutherland up for Baffert, the Hollywood Gold Cup team.

Another long shot fills my Place spot, Sugarinthemorning. This Candy Ride daughter has Placed three times in last four startsand Trainer McAnally has had her on the bench since late May. A bit high here but I'll also be covering in all spots in my Super.

Switch is a Turk favorite and I'm expecting a change to Gomez might be a good shake-up move for trainer Sadler. I doubt I'm the only one who gets a chill seeing Calumet Farms listed as the breeder, I wish we still had the devil red silks to watch as well but greed screwed that up I reckon. A sharp 6f 1:12 and 1/5 work signals good form. I'm thinking she breaks out here, so I can't let my Super get too pricey.

The next four are all exceptionaly even so this has the potential to be a nice pot for whoever can decode it, even if Switch goes off as a heavy favorite and wins.

In the American Oaks, I like Lady of Shamrock; 5 of 7 in the money on turf but no HOL turf wins and no attempts at this distance. A late turn of foot, I dont think the distance will be the issue.

Colonial Flag and Miss Cato (GB) are two I like alot. Mike Matz ships in Colonial Flag off a close Place in the Regret last month. Maragh ships in as well to take over for Leparoux. I had her on top that Stephen Foster day race.

Miss Cato (GB) gets lasix for the first time and races in North America for the first time as well. 7 of 7 in the money. Not sure if she'll like the turf, I guess we'll find out.

My Gi Gi was demolished in the Breeders' Cup, placed there for who knows what reason, but seems to be building on her turf base and she comes in off a G2 win by a nose and G3 loss by a nose. She's game, no doubt.

There's some nice racing this weekend at Arlington Park and I'll focus my efforts at Hollywood and Arlington this weekend. At Hollywood I'll bet just these two races, focused on exotics, Tri's or Supers. I'll follow my base handicap that i have here and keep both wagers reasonable.

Turk Out!