Post Race Analysis for Race Day July 4, 2009: The Salvator Mile at Monmouth

There were a bountiful of good races yesterday, a little bit for everyone and suitable for any one's particular taste. There was also hotdogs, grilled vegetables, and assorted other distractions to limit my handicapping to just a few races. The race I keyed on with my time limitations was the Salvator Mile at Monmouth. I thought it was a race ripe for an exotic payout, and there is nothing more American then hitting the easy score when it presents itself. That good looking colt in the Vanessa Ng photo is the winner of the 2009 Salvator Mile, Coal Play.

Race 9 Mth: The Salvator Mile Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



In my pre-race handicap I identified a dividing line in talent that I thought separated the top four from the rest of the field. The line turned out to be a head, as Two Step Salsa's head beating Kiss the Kid, whose neck beat The Roundhouse, kept my simple but effective handicap viable.

Coal Play struck to the front by the first call point of the race and never surrendered the lead. Smooth Air, my expected winner, drifted very wide in the stretch but had enough left to finish strong.

I went with one bet: I boxed a $1 Superfecta Bet on my base handicap. I think my restraint was partially because of the limited time I had to think about betting. It's something I should do more often, place a decisive bet and move along. My $24 investment returned $227.90. To anyone who'll say all I did was box the top four of the tote board my answer is no: I handicapped the race. That's what I do. My analysis placed those four at the top of my handicap hours before the tote board placed them there. My quick math told me the superfecta was worth somewhere between 180 and 250 dollars. If that's chalk chasing, I'll do it everyday!

Have Fun. There are some good races today and I may try one on for size later. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 4, 2009: The Salvator Mile at Monmouth Park

United Nations Day at Monmouth as our country celebrates Independence Day. The fine looking animal to the left in the Vanessa Ng photo is the 2008 winner of the Salvator Mile, Notional, with J. Bravo up.

I haven't handicapped Monmouth much since October 2007 and the Breeder's Cup. I was enjoying a phenomenal handicapping day when the emotional high came tumbling down with the breakdown and death of George Washington following the Breeder's Cup Classic. On as patriotic a day as we celebrate every year, I'd like to take just a moment and remember the horse named after the father of our country. It's important to me to remember that this game we play sometimes ends tragically and just as I honor the human dead, I hope all horseplayers retain enough compassion to remember our dead runners.

It's suppose to be a good weather day at Monmouth. For anyone concerned about track condition and current weather, you'll find the Monmouth Park website very useful.

Race 9 Mth Post Time 4:50 ET: The Salvator Mile GIII; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm backing Smooth Air to win right now and if that changes as the day goes on I'll update. I don't generally like first time with a new trainer horses, something Trainer Brown has done 59 times and won 17% of. It's Smooth Air's first time at Mth as well. He is 9 of 10 in the money on fast dirt, 2 of 2 in the money at the distance and 13 of 15 lifetime starts in the money. The Grade II winner gave Bribon all he could handle at the Met Mile on Memorial Day. He may be the post time chalk, so if he doesn't look good in the paddock or post parade I may jump off of him quickly and look for win bets where there is more value.

Two Step Salsa, campaigning under the royal blue silks of Godolphin, is a Grade II winner and is making his 2nd North American start since wintering in Dubai and doing very well there to boot. G. "home is where the heart is" Gomez leaves his California home and is up today. Trainer of record bin Suroor has good stats on 2nd off 45-180, winning 37% of the time and 20% of Graded Stakes. 7 out of 11 of Two Step Salsa's lifetime starts are on turf or synth.

Solar Flare interests me greatly. His current form indicates he may be running as good as he was in June 2008 before he had a late season swoon. Trainer Jones has super stats so I won't run down the list, but 26% in 31-60 day layoffs and 33% Graded Stakes pop out. Solar Flare won at Monmouth in late May. Lots to like and will force me to either box my exotics or place him at the top on multiple tickets.

Trainer Zito and last year's winning jock Bravo are here with Coal Play, a head scratcher of a runner. 4 of 4 in the money at Monmouth, 2 of 3 at this distance and coming off a 105 BSF performance at BEL at this distance on June 10th. Coal Play gave Big Brown all he could handle in last year's Haskel. The son of Mineshaft could win, but is talented enough to be in the top four. Zito's WON LAST START stat is 33% on 100 races.

Happy 4th of July. The Turk will be celebrating with the Turk Clan on Poppa Turk's deck, a few short steps from the sat TV feed of the races. For the record, Mrs. Turk likes The Roundhouse here, a good win bet at 6-1 for the talented but erratic Pletcher trainee and Little Turk is backing Solar Flare.

10 Cent supers are in fashion here. I'll be exotic hunting.

Rest in Peace Gorgeous George Washington.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 25, 2009: The Met Mile

Race 10 BEL: The Met (Mile) Handicap Grade I; 1 Mile on NYS Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Prerace I had a serious "I dunno" feeling. I did feel strongly about Bribon (FR) and Smooth Air. If not for 3/4 of a length and a gutty final few kicks by Driven by Success I'd be talking about the Superfecta that I nailed. I had Driven for Success finishing a bit further down and that's the difficulty with sprint races as you can throw a blanket sometimes around the middle of the pack and it's as much guess work as it is handicapping.

I thought Riley Tucker ran well as did Smooth Air. Look for both to improve next time out.

The Turk bet $12 bucks and made $16.60. Better then losing, but I better keep going to the day job.



Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 25, 2009: The Met Mile

I dunno. Not the most encouraging words you can hear from a bettor you hope has the Rosetta Stone of handicapping for the race you are about to pluck money down on. Today's Met Mile is one of those I dunno type of races for me. With a few notable dropouts, including Mr. Fantasy , it's a field with parity galore and some head scratchers.

When I have a I dunno feeling I try as a handicapper to realize that if I'm this confused, then many others will be too. It's a big field, odds will grow long on some starters and with that some hay can be made if you can construct a handicap that perhaps doesn't identify the exact order of finish, but just likely ranges of finish. Yes, I'm talking about a boxed out 10 cent super day for me.

Race 10 BEL: The Metropolitan Handicap Grade I; 1 Mile on NYS Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



With my handicap set, I'm thinking out a bet strategy. My first decision is for size of bet. With my I dunno feel for this race, I think I will limit myself to no more then three 10 cent boxed supers ($7.20) a three straight $1 Tri's ($3) and a $2 win bet on either Smooth Air or Bribon, whoever has better then 3.5-1 odds.

Limited exposure, but the thrill will be big to pull off a super with this field.

I'd be negligent if I didn't ask everyone to think about the reason for the holiday. As horsepeople, we can all imagine the terrible 1st World War. We can place ourselves in the boots of Major Belmont, weary from war and still based in Paris, having to make the hard decision that led to Man O' War being sold at auction. We can think about the sacrifice of so many Americans in the past 100 years abroad as we enjoy our pasttime that their sacrifice secured for us. Think about our uniformed dead and the loved ones they left behind. The Turk is a proud Gulf War vet and he wishes all of his vet extended family health and prayers as they remember the ones who didn't come home.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 14, 2009

The Turk had what he likes to call a mental health afternoon. After retrieving Kay from the vet, I had nothing to do except take care of my sick pooch, and watch the ponies. It was a good day, with a mixed bag of handicapping, as well as the biggest one day payout I've had in 2009. I don't want to be a windbag, so let's get right to it!

Race 4 at the Great Race Place, bankrupt Santa Anita Park: The San Felipe (Grade II); 1 1/16 miles on "pro-ride" for 3 YOS.



No big surprises. I was happy to see Pioneerof the Nile win impressively, but would have been more impressed if the field was a bit stronger. I don't see how this race tells us anything more about this horse then we already knew. I placed no bets on this race but would have lost the few exactas I had in mind, as New Bay collapsed after an impressive first 6 furlongs.




Race 9 at Fair Grounds: The Louisiana Derby (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.

The Turk felt good about this race. I loved the field and the more I studied the race, the better I felt, which is usually a sign that I will not only lose my bets, but be embarrassed by my choices. Not today! Readers of the Turk know that I'm not about the betting, and that exotic betting strategies don't interest me. I re-do the morning lines for probable finishes and most of the time I'm content with just seeing how it goes. There is one betting situation I like to take advantage of: The chalk who I feel confident will win and several other horses with OK odds of 3-1 or higher that I can fill tickets out with. I generally avoid expensive boxes unless its a 1o cent super. I felt really good about my top six horses, and I liked my one-two combo enough to anchor everything to them. Nearly six hundred dollars on less then 20 dollars in bets. I'd like to say that happens all the time but....






Race 10 at bankrupt Gulfstream Park, The Gulfstream Park Handicap (Grade II); 1 mile for 4 YOs.



I felt as good about Bribon(Fr) as I generally get, so this is more indicative about my skill level then the last race was. I had six dollars on three trifectas that I donated.



And the shocker of the day, Race 10 at Oaklawn Park, The Rebel (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



My cousin Marge asked me on Facebook if I had any good Irish named horses to recommend to her. I told her Win Willy was a huge longshot that would pay over 50 bucks on a 1 dollar bet. Well, I was right and wrong. Win Willy did win but he paid $56.80 on a buck. Wish I would have got a piece of that action.

I don't think this means much. I think Old Fashioned and rider Dominguez thought they had it in the bag and nobody read that memo to Win Willy. Current form for the first Saturday in May starts about 1 weeks from now. Ramp up in a week, have a monster final prep and work fast and strong for 3 weeks, and if Old Fashioned does that, nobody remembers The Rebel in mid March. It is troubling, but not a show stopper. The track was listed as good. No excuses please. I tried to illustrate in the above spreadsheet how wildly wrong the betting public had this one.



And the Turk didn't handicap or watch this race, but the 11th at Tampa Bay Downs, The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III), 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



I'm going to have to sort this one out. General Quarters has flirted with my interest, and this one is more significant then what happened with Old Fashioned, as he just never fired. I really liked this race though. Musket Man was flyin'