The Nomination Is In: The 36th Running of the Arlington Million G1

The Turk's beverage before 35th running of the Million

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our ninth year and eleventh month of providing handicapping insights to people who never asked for it.  I'm the Turk, a 52 year old bald blogger who has been handicapping since 1987.  My first time visiting Arlington was in 1985, the day the old track burned down.  I was in the US Navy stationed at Great Lakes and I was rounded up, put on a truck.  It was another 22 years before I returned and now I try to make Preview Day or the Million Day part of my annual calendar.  Circumstances this year (Family Reunion/Little Turk preparation for College) has me watching on TwinSpires TV, but I'll be back for the 37th,  God willing.

I could ramble quite a bit about Arlington Park.  It's a shame that Illinois racing isn't better.  The track is fantastic, the staff friendly, the fake dirt plays fair and the turf, in my humble opinion, is the best in North America, and its my second favorite track to play besides Kentucky Downs.  Every track has a vibe.  I've been to many facilities, big and small.  Arlington has a vibe I appreciate, it's my speed, and I wish I could go more often.

I have to give a plug to the good people at Hello Race Fans!  You absolute must check out their post for the Arlington Million.  If you are a data junkie like I am, you will go into overload.

Where is Divisidero running?  Entered at both Saratoga and Arlington Park for Saturday, I've even gone to extreme measures (tweeting the trainer) to know for sure.  By the way, an excellent article written by Natalie Voss for the Paulick Report can be found here on Trainer Kelly Rubley, Divisidero's conditioner (Voss, 2018).  I'm going to go with Daily Race Form reporting that states he's going to the Fourstar Dave at SAR.  I think he had a great shot at Arlington, but I always trust the connections know best.

 Let's get after it!



Let's take a look at some recent and not recent, still relevant video.


G1 Manhattan @BEL Firm Turf 1 1/4 Miles (June 2018)



Watch Robert Bruce (Yellow/Blue Sleeves/Yellow Cap) and watch the bump in the straight but his surge at the finish.  This was no simple 6th place finish.  With an upgraded pilot (no offense to Gaffalione at all) in I. Ortiz for Trainer Chad Brown, I make him my (light) chalk. Take another look at him here in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy where he gets the better of Spring Quality.

G3 Fort Marcy @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 1/8 Miles





G1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap on Firm Turf  1 1/8 Miles (Feb 2018)



When a 5-1 runner beats Beach Patrol and Divisidero take notice.  Almannar (GB) in the royal blue Shadwell Stables silks looked impressive with the late turn of foot.  The 6 YO gelding came back and won a 100K OC at Belmont on Belmont Stakes Day.

G1 United Nations @ Monmouth Firm Turf 1 3/8 miles (30 June)



Money Multiplier (royal blue with white stars) ran a good race against 23-1 Funtastic.  With an extra 1/8 of a mile.....

And a few looks at Oscar Performance:  7 Wins in 12 Turf Ties, 2 of 2 at the distance and $1.9 MM lifetime earnings for the 4 YO.

G1 Secretariat Stakes 2017 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf (turn sound down-bad music alert)




G3 Poker Stakes @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 mile




You can find race replays for Arlington Park through this link.  Of note is July 7th, Million Preview Day with G3 Arlington H. and Stars and Stripes.

I can't say I have a strong opinion on this field.  I've essentially place the runners in three buckets:

Robert Bruce (Chi)/10
Oscar Performance/11
Spring Quality/2

All I think will be near front of pace and all I think can win.  Spring Quality, a Quality Road 6 YO is lightly raced but I'm a big fan of Mr. George Strawbridge and his Augustin Stable and how they train and prepare these amazing turf runners.  80 years old, a classy man.

Almanaar (GB)/3
Money Multiplier/8

They can win, but both need things to go their way.  No reason to not believe they will receive some prize,  Place-4th.

Deauville (Ire)/9

In the lead as the favorite in last year's edition and couldn't stay on.  Did another year improve him? Capable, but he hasn't won in over 10 races.  I'm betting that the uninitiated flock to the Euro invader and I need him to lose for me to win.

Century Dream (Ire)/5

First time lasik, 7 time turf winner, 4 Yo Cape Cross (Ire).  he's been coming up empty in one mile straights.  Won his last LH and has won at the distance.  I dunno right now but would I be surprised if he was Show-5th?  No.


Finally,  insert handicapping every time Jarvis says practice and this is my weekend handicapping mood!




Have fun, Turk out!

The Nominations Are In: Arlington Million Day Races 7-12

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  Today's blogging is on location at Arlington Park as Little Turk and I take in the 35th Edition of The Arlington Million.  

Last year at Million Day 34, we sweated our asses off but enjoyed ourselves nonetheless.  The track is beautiful, the staff are friendly, the paddock and windows highly accessible. Now if only the State of Illinois wasn't so f**ked up as to not screw this treasure up in the name of slot revenues.  I promised myself that today will only be about today, I'm living in the moment of this Million and I'm hopeful for the future that this beautiful track that this wonderful sport find a way to survive with a business model that works. 

I've handicapped from Race 7, The Secretariat through Race 12 The Pucker Up.  The handicaps are quick and dirty as I'm building P3's and P4's today and my horizontals will be pure value plays on exacta and win.

Do you have a favorite race track and favorite day at that track.  Mine use to be Traver's/King Bishop Day but I felt priced out on that day at Saratoga.  I think The Million is my day.  I love Breeders's Cup Saturday, The Million and its a coin toss between the revamped Belmont Day and Kentucky Derby Day.  I love the spectacle of the big day.  Anyways, Little Turk, who's not so little anymore, and I get to hang out and relax and you can't put a price tag on that.

I work for a family owned business, very sharp people, and working around them makes me very sharp, always on, always thinking.  The track allows me to use that awareness and sharpness to my advantage.  My handicapping has been peaking over the past two months.  I'm just like a horse in some ways, I'm on my 2nd off a long layoff.  I'll try and stay sharp under Breeders' Cup before I get some farm time.  I've really enjoyed blogging and hopefully the readers will return from Twitter one day.

Enjoy friends!  Time to grab the car and drive out to the track.  First post 1:15 ET. Turk Out!

Video Review: Arlington Million 2016-2004

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

I took Little Turk to Arlington for the first time in 2008.  10 Years later and we are returning, this time for the Arlington Million. Little Turk and I went last year and had a great time at the track.  The staff is friendly, the track is wonderful, the paddock is easily reached and offers great views, and I can't say enough about how much I love this track. I'm concerned about the future of the track, and racing as a whole in Illinois, but that's a story for another time and place.  This weekend, I intend to enjoy this Million and not worry about anything else.

In prep of handicapping the race, I assembled video on the last 13 Arlington Million run.  Do you have a favorite?  In this time frame I loved Little Mike and The Pizza Man, but Debussy's last 1/16 of a mile was scintillating.

Most of the winners were 2-3 lengths back at the top of the stretch.  Only a few stayed on the lead at the 1/4 pole and kept it.  Late turns of foot.


Enjoy.  Turk Out!


2016 Arlington Million Mondialiste (Ire)



2015 Arlington Million The Pizza Man






2014 Arlington Million Hardest Core



2013 Arlington Million Real Solution



2012 Arlington Million Little Mike



2011 Arlington Million Cape Blanco (Ire)



2010 Arlington Million Debussy



2009 Arlington Million Gio Ponti



2008 Arlington Million Spirit One



2007 Arlington Million  Jambalaya



2006 Arlington Million The Tin Man



2005 Arlington Million Powerscourt



2004 Arlington Million Kicken Kris with Powerscourt DQ'd

The Nomination Is In: The Modesty and Arlington Handicap at Arlington Park

Kasaqui:  Four Footed Fotos

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Today is my second favorite day of the year at arguably my favorite turf track in the United States, Arlington.  What used to be called Million Preview Day is now called Road to the Million, and my primary focus is on two 1 3/16 routes over grass.  By the way, Little Turk and I will be traveling to Arlington for the Million, our second straight year, and would love to meet any readers, you know yourselves, while we are there.


Race six is the Grade 3 Modesty, for Fillies and Mares, three and up while race 9 is the grade 3 Arlington Handicap.  Don't worry about the weather.

Let's get after it!





In the Modesty, Dona Bruja is a five year old Argentinian beast.  9 of 9 in the money over turf and a solid first start in the US in the G3 Mint Julep in early June.



Time and Motion is a Grade 1 winner as a three year old who hasn't quite found her groove as a four year old, with two starts and one Show finish.  Trainer James Toner started a freshening over Belmont turf for past six weeks. 8 of 12 in the money over turf, the Tapit daughter looks to get going in advance of Million day. Hard not to like the gutty and game Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup effort from last October.



Darling Duchess cuts back from 1 1/2 miles today where she won last time out in late May.  2 wins in six starts at this distance.  Speed is an issue.

Prado's Sweet Ride tracked along evenly in the AP Matt Spellman at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf a month ago.  As the chalk he finished in Show.  The 5 YO goes for Trainer Chris Block, winless in past 12 stake races.

Storming Elle and One Liz round out my potential exotics.  I tossed La Piba and Bonita Cat.  

Darling Duchess will be on the lead and should bring the speed.  I would expect only Dona Bruja and Time and Motion to make serious late runs.  The bet can be as simple as 1 and 3 Over the 1 and 3 Over some combination of horses, or maybe even the 1 Over 3 Over Field.  I'll stew on it and you do too!

The Arlington Handicap is a very nice field of fairly even quality with a few class standouts.  I could go into a major rant about why Arlington can't have more racing days like this, with more fields like this, but I'll sound like a broken record.  Industry insider Ray Paulick has done a better job than I could possibly explaining the situation.

From a Paulick Report in May, "...The racing industry has been trying to get some type of legislative relief since 1991, when riverboat casinos were first approved. It's been stymied repeatedly, and the damage done to the breeding and racing industry is immense. Revenue to the tracks and purses for horse owners has cratered. Horsemen are getting out of the business or moving their stables and breeding stock to neighboring states, all of which offer more substantial purses. Illinois racing has become a shell of its former self.

Slots might have been the answer 10 or 20 years ago, when the competition came from 10 casinos scattered throughout Illinois, and several others were poised just across the Indiana state line adjacent to Chicago's South Side. One of those gambling parlors, the Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, is only 11 miles from Arlington Park in Chicago's northwest suburbs. Illinois casinos offer a full range of table games – blackjack, roulette, craps et al – to go with slot machines.

More recently, Illinois legislators moved to add electronic games to virtually every tavern and bar in the state. The 2009 law – approved by jailed former Gov. Rod Blagojevich – took several years to clear legal hurdles, but it is now in full effect, with tens of thousands of devices at bars, truck stops and fraternal organizations.

Slot machines are no longer unique (May 29, 2017)."

There is still hope regarding bill SB7, but Illinois is such a messed up state, I'm not sure if I'm prepared to have any faith or hope that Arlington can be saved,  I love that track and its a horrible shame what has become of the Illinois racing scene. 

Anyway, Illinois racing is not dead yet, at least for another day.  Turk favorite, Kasaqui (Arg)  looks to be in fine form winning the Wise Dan G2 at CD on June 17.                        

He has a tendency to take Place (10 in 26 starts) but I'm really impressed by this 7 YO.  

Perhaps a contrarian view, I like Manitoulin here.  Comes in off career best 97 Beyer  in a 1 1/8 Turf carrying 122 (He'll be 10 pounds lighter than Kasaqui at 114 today).  Second time out as a gelding (poor fella).  

Sir Dudley Digges is a very classy Ramsey owned Gio Ponti Ontario bred trained by Michael Maker with Leparoux up.  These two combine for 23% wins in past year on 196 mounts.  Winner in N3x $80K OC last time out and will be closer to the pace than Kasaqui at the top of the stretch.  

In the one spot is Taghleeb, another Maker conditioned horse, a 6 YO Hard Spun bred by Shadwell. 

Oak Brook is an up down 5 YO gelded Giant's causeway son that has been claimed repeatedly and is currently in Brian Williamson's barn (8% graded stakes, 10% turf wins, 10% routes). 9 Win-Place results in 19 lifetime races.  Took the Black Tie Affair at Arlington at 16-1 last month on yielding turf. Will be on the pace.  

Ghost Hunter is live and long.  6 Win-Place finishes in 9 turf starts.  Trainer Jamie Ness stepping up big time in Class and Competition.  Has had sucess over the fake dirt, winning G3 Hashin a 1 Mile here at AP in May.  Won last start, 1 1/8 over firm turf at Delaware Park in mid June.  

Applicator I have rated lower than I expect he will be on the tote board at post time.  I look at running lines:  Weakened Late a 1 1/4 in G1 Manhattan, No Factor, No Factor, tired, Walked Off, Weakened, faltered.  I may be too harsh here.  Watch the Manhattan video.  I don't see the horse that earned those running lines.  



Applicator did not belong in the class for breeder/trainer Mikhail Yanakov but really ran well until being eased at 1/16 pole.  Class drop, distance drop.  I'll be watching him on the tote board.  

I'm not sure yet what I'll be doing in the Arlington Handicap.  Whatever you do, do your own handicapping and bet responsibly.  

Turk out!

References

Paulick, Ray.  May 29, 2017.  "View from the 1/8th pole:  Time is Running Out on Illinois Racing." Retrieved from https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-eighth-pole-time-running-illinois-racing/

The Nomination Is In: The Arlington Park Black Tie Affair Handicap Day Late Pick 3

The Pizza Man: Photo by Benoit

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I've reached the point in the racing season where I want to handicap the older horses, mostly over turf or routes over dirt.  I like the older horses, and the information that flows from their past performances.

Today I'm focusing on Arlington Park, a backwater in horse racing because of Local/State politics and the inability to field quality races with meaningful purses. It's a beautiful track, and the lush blue-green grass is everything that's right with the game.  Even it's fake dirt plays very fair.

The rhythm of Arlington isn't complicated.  You can work backwards from The Arlington Million in mid August, to Arlington Million Preview Day in Mid July and finally to Saturdays like this in June.  I like to handicap these $50,000 minor stakes in June because it gives me a feel for the horses that will round out those fields of Euro invaders and top turf horses that will ship in for the big days.  I'm not saying you need to play these days to have good handicapping days when Grade 1 racing returns but I'm saying it helps me get a feel for the track and the locals.

I'm only a bit interested in these races. I'd like to see the fields a bit bigger and the class a bit more even.  My goal is again to get a feel for the local trainers, these local horses, and to make some intelligent handicap/bet combos.  I'm a good Pick 3 handicapper, but I tend to cover too many horses in the bet selection, taking value away.  I typically only play Pick 3's if I feel like I can find value with 2 legs of the race boasting my chalk that are 3rd or lower on the tote board.  I sense this series will be chalky but let's get after it anyways!




The first two races are over turf at 1 1/16 miles.  Today the Turf was upgraded to good.  With more rain in the forecast, it's hard to say right now what the track condition will be at post time.

The Mike Spellman Memorial Handicap is for F&M, 3 YO and Up.  I have three horses that I think can take the wire:  Lovely Loyree/5, last year's winner Stormin Elle/4 and Prado's Sweet Ride/2. The class of the race without a doubt is Lovely Loyree: 10 of 10 at the distance in the money and 14 of 14 in the money over turf, as well as 5 of 5 in the money at AP.  Trainer Michele Boyce is 16% with horses off a 180+ day break and that's what she's facing here.  I question if the goal is to win this race or have a good workout.  I'd feel comfortable backing any of the three but when forced to choose I may just take the 4-2 into the Pick 3.


In race 8, the Black Tie Affair Handicap, we have the season debut of handicap division star The Pizza Man/3.  I'm going to assume he p;icks up where he left off, a mid to upper 90+ Beyer and the soft grass won't bother him at all.  Trainer Chris Block's Cammack/1 will be a strong competitor as well coming late.  3 straight wins and low 90+ Beyers.  Super Soldier/2 comes in off a OC 35K win at 1 Mile at AP on a troubled trip where he closed rapidly in last 1/16.

In race 9, an OC 50K/N2X, I'm high on Cash Bonus/7 and Western Elegance/6. Both are steady performers.

I don't plan on overthinking this too much.  I'll be watching the tote and the weather conditions as well as scratches and changes from the Arlington Park website.  I'll be assembling a Pick 3 bet that I suspect will be a bit chalky.  I intend to cover 2-4 OVER 1-2 OVER 7-6-1-3.  A $2 bet would cost $32.  Going to 2-4 OVER 1-2 OVER 7-6 on a $2 bet would cost $16.  That's the sort of risk/reward bet that offers value.  Covering Lovely Loyree and Pizza Man may feel good as a race fan, but I suspect they will be heavily bet and I'm suspicious of the trainer expectations tomorrow.

Have fun with it.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Alabama Stakes Grade 1 at SAR

2009 Alabama Stakes Winner Careless Jewel; Photo Budmeister 26.2

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog that focuses primarily on handicapping.  I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan and their Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you.

The Alabama Stakes is typically a highlight race for me at Saratoga.  I've had conflicts with this weekend over the past few years and the last time I was able to be there for it, my son and his grandfather joined me in 2009 to see the absolutely gorgeous Careless Jewel win in a romp.
It looked like the sort of performance that could catapult the filly to super stardom, but it just wasn't to be and the second best filly of 2009 behind Rachel Alexandra was retired soon after.

Songbird, today's stupid-crazy heavy chalk favorite has skyrocketed to super heights already, winning nine straight and absolutely dominating all comers. Today's focus will be on figuring out if she can be beaten and by who, as well as just embracing the heavy chalk as a single and seeing who can bring value into the Place and Show spots on an exotic ticket.

Three Turk Generations at the Spa: Travers Stakes Day 2007

Today's race is not named after a person or a famous horse, but instead for the home state of William Cottrill, a former Confederate officer.   The race track was trying to remember the efforts of Mr. Cottrill who is credited with helping to revive horse racing in the North following the American Civil War.  Mr. Cottrill owned a farm near Lexington, Kentucky and bred a Kentucky Derby winner, 1884's Buchanan (Hale 2001).

Horse racing remembers.  A few years back I was deeply disturbed when many of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park meet's races were renamed by the Stronach Group.  I still don't like it and one of the most appealing things about horse racing to me besides the horses themselves is the tradition.  When I look at this picture of my father and son, together at the 2007 Travers Stakes, it means something to me, it's my roots, horse racing roots, the thing that ties one generation of fans to the next.  Imagine the hacks at the NYRA one day just deciding to rename The Alabama Stakes. I get heart palps just thinking about that.  I'm sorry, I digress, and I just want to end this thought with this: Horse Racing Remembers.

I've been babbling a bit too much already, lets get after this race with a bit of video handicapping and then a peek at the fractions these horses are capable of. Let's get after it!


24 July2016 CCA Oaks G1 SAR  1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt




16 July 2016 Indiana Oaks G2 IND; 1 1/16 Miles; Fast Dirt




20 May 2016 Black Eyed Susan G2; PIM; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt



9 April 2016 Ashland G1; KEE; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt



Just some simply dazzling performances highlight in these few videos.  I could post all of Songbirds and what you see is complete consistency.  The Weep No More back to front finish at KEE in the Ashland was one of the memorable races of 2016 already, but nothing really from her since.

The chart below shows a small sample size of races at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 of a mile.  Surprisingly Flora Dora ran a similar speed in an OC $62K at BEL in early Julyas compared to Songbird's Summer Oaks G2.

At 1 1/8 miles there was a shocking disparity between Songbird, with the next closest horse Flora Dora finishing 8 lengths behind based on 1/5 of a second per length. Songbird is often slowed in the final 1/16 and that skews the data as this girl has tactical speed and Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith knows how to use it.







Songbird.  I'm not sure I need to say much else.  She won at SAR, she's 9-0 lifetime with $2.4 MM of earnings already, a 5 Time Grade 1 winner, a Breeders' Cup Champ, she's the complete package.  If it means anything, she has the lowest Tomlinson Number at the distance with a 269.  I expect her to soar.

Family Tree, with hot jock F. Geroux up for trainer Wayne Catalano, comes in off two impressive outings in the mid west, in the Iowa Oaks in June and the Indiana Oaks 2 weeks later in July.   While the class in those races isn't terribly high, she was impressive.

Going for Broke is making a big jump in class for trainer Chad Brown who places Ortiz up.  That combo has struck for 30% wins in 90 tries at SAR this meet.

Go Maggie Go is on a layoff since June 11, something trainer Romans only wins 9% of the time.   A :58 4/5ths 5f bullet with 76 others in the workout tab on 12 August shows she's fit.  Black Eyed Susan winner wasn't visually impressive and ran a better, but out of the money, Kentucky Oaks a few weeks earlier.

Flora Dora I think is too low in my base handicap.  Blinkers On, this First Dude daughter has two very fast bullets at SAR this month in morning work, I'm expected a focused and possibly career best effort to get in the money.  I'll be covering her from Place to 4th.

Weep No More had alot of speed to run at in KEE.  She'll be running at alot of speed here too.  I'm not expecting a repeat performance.  No Place or Show finishes in her career yet.  Feast or famine and she's in the deep water today.

I'm tossing Dark Nile at my own peril.

I'm leaning towards two very different bets:

Primary:  Songbird singled with 5-3-4-7-2 covered from Place to 4th in some combination I haven't fully thought through yet.  I don't think I'll cover that many horses in Place but a 6 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 $2 Trifecta will cost $40.

Secondary/Hedge Bet:  Exactas with Songbird in Place and the 5-3-4-7 in WIN spot.  $2 bet for $8.

I'd like to end this post by again saying that I think Arlington Race Track is a wonderfully run, fan friendly place that I highly recommend to my horse racing friends.  They make it easy to buy tickets on their website and the track experience in the club seating is fantastic. I wish Illinois racing would get their act together and attract better talent with better purses, but you cannot beat Million Preview and Million Day at that track.  NYRA could learn a few things about race track experience from the team at Arlington.

2016 Arlington Millions

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!



Works Cited

Hale, Ron (2001). "William Cottrill Stakes?" About.com/Horse Racing. http://horseracing.about.com/library/blalabama.htm Retrieved 17 August 2016.

The Nomination Is In: The Washington Park Handicap Grade 3 at Arlington

Willcox Inn

Glutton for punishment, I love these fake dirt stakes races, as rare as they are at Arlington Park, a jewel of a race track stuck in a backward ass stake known as Illinois.  Love the state, hate the elected leaders, but this isn't a political blog so I'll get off of it.

I like this race, the Washington Park Handicap, Grade 3.  I'm going with a bet right along my base handicap, with Willcox Inn singled, and four others just below. 
10 Cent Supers are on the menu.



Gallant Eagle is a key here; 4 wins in 5 starts at AP.  I need him to rate and finish in Place for real value.  Mister Marti Gras is a veteran runner, soon to be a millionaire, and can finish anywhere on the board but I'm hoping from Place to Exotic.  Hattaash makes his 39th start in six years.  Hard knockin'.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 25 May 2013 at Arlington Park

."...left Money on the Table"

Without high expectations, I approached my handicapping of Arlington yesterday.  I was encouraged by what I thought were very poor morning lines that could be exploited.  I ended the day up $105.29 with an ROI of 133% but with regrets of leaving money on the table.

As I said pre race, I handicapped the Pick 5 but I passed on betting.  That's good because I missed badly on the $7,500 claimer as well as the Hanshin Cup.  I did however bet the Pick 4 and flamed out.

I constructed 3 superfecta bets for the 3 stake races.  While I won one of those superfectas, I did not place the matching bet I typically make, a boxed 4 horse trifecta off my base handicap.  By failing to follow my general betting habits I left $185 for the Arlington Matron Trifecta on the table for the $48 bet.  I make mistakes like everyone and this was a mistake.

I did some good handicapping yesterday:  In the Matron, I had the 5th and 7th betting favorites in my top 3.  In the Hanshin Cup I didn't bite on the heavy betting favorites, backing a better price that was wasn't as good as the better price that actually won.  I had a pretty good read on the Classic with the exception of my chalk, Yorkshire Icon (GB) that never fired from the 8th spot on the tote board.



Have fun friends this Memorial Day Weekend.  I would like to remember my fellow veterans and our friends who didn't make it.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Arlington Park Classic Day Pick 5/Pick 4 and Superfecta Options

Turk Clan at the Races

Being at the track has different meanings to me.  There are times when I go alone, business like, with the intention of cashing tickets.  Sometimes I go alone just to relax, as the track is one place where I don't pay attention to my wrist watch or my work email.  Occasionally I like to go with other men and indulge in a cigar, a drink and work race sequences together.  Then there is just family time at the track, like last week at Pimlico.  I made a commitment to myself to try and transfer my love of the track and the riddle that is handicapping to the Little Turk, now 13.  Little Turk has been to more Grade 1 races at this point in his life than most of the adults dressed in their hipster clothes that flock to the track on only the busiest days of the year.  He's got a sharp eye and a mind for the pace.  I thank Mrs. Turk for indulging in this behavior as well, pictured here for the first time as she is typically camera shy.

Arlington has a special place in my heart.  I was there many many years ago when the old grandstand and stables burned to the ground.  I was in the US Navy, stationed 20 miles or so away.  The new place is a wonderful track, modern and in good condition compared to many of the older tracks in the United States, and as we know, people aren't lining up to build new tracks these days.  My family have taken vacations to Arlington and we are always treated extremely well.  From the prettiest bugler in the nation, to every steward and attendant, we enjoy the place completely.

I don't have high expectations for my handicapping today.  I've built some bets that appear to have some real value to them and I'm going to keep my investment within reason and see how it goes.  I handicapped the Pick 5 but I don't think I'm willing to make the investment that I think is required ($108) to hit it.  I'll watch that one but I don't plan to play it.

I handicapped The late pick 4 as well. Claiming races mixed in, one on turf, makes the sequence a real challenge but I think its worth the $36 dollar investment.  I'm leaning towards placing that bet, but if I don't I'll say so afterwards Win or Lose.

I think the  Arlington Classic is an interesting race, with some real tepid betting favorites near the top, but I like Yorkshire Icon (GB) to bring some value to the bet.  General Election even looks just as tempting as does Admiral Kitten and Procurement.  If I was thinking chalky, I like Procurement cutting back in distance slightly for Trainer Proctor.  Will Go-Go be up, I'm not sure after his fall.

I expect the turf to be Yielding.  It was yesterday and some rains are in the forecast today.

I'm also hunting real value in the Hanshin Cup with PatrioticandProud.  I think Trainer Mark Casse has a strong horse on his hands, 8 of 9 in the money on fake stuff, and he'll be overlooked with Nate's Mineshaft, Seruni and Mr. Marti Gras in the gate.





Have fun with it fans, I plan on keeping it reasonable as I value hunt.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Arlington Park Late Pick 5 (Races 7-11) on Arlington Million Day

That crew of horseplayers is the Corbin Gang, who hosted one heck of party early this year at Arlington Park to celebrate the graduations of Turk Cousins, Braden and Mac. Horseplaying is a family activity, it brings people together in both glorious success and flaming failure.

The Ol' Turk loves Arlington Park. The plush grass carpet is the finest in North America and , cough, the poly plays fair. On top of that, it's lovely. The architecture was well thought out and the facility is in excellent condition. I worry about Arlington Park though. Stuck in a State where corruption is rampant and special interests and politics can't get out of the way, the purse structure has made this wonderful facility almost irrelevant in the national racing structure. With no disrespect to Race Track Casinos, the advantage these facilities have to attract the best horses running for the most money is overwhelming Arlington Park. I hope sanity will come at some point.

The Turk returns to finish off a horizontal Pick 5. In the process I fleshed out some of my vertical handicaps, particularly the Secretariat and The Beverly D.

These sort of races, with the foreign invaders of various quality tossed in, can be very challenging. My Pick 5 isn't very dynamic and maybe even is a bit chalky, but that's the way I see it unfolding. I wanted to keep the bet to a reasonable size or I have a $32 bet at $1 or $64 at $2. I'm still mulling if I place it or not. W'll see.

Let's get after this!



Vertiformer has scratched out of the St. Leger in favor of the Million. I'm not so sure he didn't scratch out of the wrong race but what do I know. You can find the rest of the Scratches and Changes here. All of these races are on the turf and it's listed as Good. Hmmmm.




I'll be building exotic bets based on my base handicaps. I'll ditch the Pick 5 bet if I reach my determined betting limit. These are high risk, Ok reward bets, requiring quite a bit of skill. There are more variables involved than I'd like so I approach these more as a horse fan than as reclusive whale. As I like to talk about, pick your marks to bet, and there are easier bets than these. For a mixture of challenge, skill and beautiful ascetetics, nothing compares to this today except the Alabama.

Have fun whatever you do. These are the good days of the horse racing year.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 13, 2011: The Arlington Million Grade I

God gave me a big nose for a reason, but it isn't big enough: John Henry nips me at the wire but I get up for Show Money behind The Bart. The story of my life. I think I've digressed.

Welcome Friends to the Turk and Little Turk's handicap of the Arlington Million. I've been invited today to handicap one of the premier turf events in North America, the Grade I Arlington Million,for the Thorofan's Handicappers Corner. To those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, its an organization inspired by and serving the 29 million horse racing fans in America who deserve a voice.

Arlington Park is a pretty special place to me. I was living north of Chicago in 1985, serving in the United States Navy, when a fire swept through the track , destroying the old place. I joined the curious and the concerned that watched from the edge of the road. It's a wonderful new facility now, under appreciated in the big scheme of things, but just a completely fan-centric race day experience they offer and its one of this Turk's favorite places to visit.

Arlington Park installed a poly surface in 2007, which I don't play often, but when I do, I find it plays pretty fair. For me, the Arlington turf course is the draw. It's maintained immaculately, not like the grass at Soldier Field. The race falls in a nice place in the conditions book, a month or so after the classic distance Grade I turf affairs start happening, races like The Colonial Turf Cup,Arlington Park Handicap, The Man O' War and the United Nations,and it sets the winner up perfectly for The Breeders' Cup Turf. The race attracts some of the best turf horses in the America and the best second tier grass runners from Europe and the race is the cornerstone of Arlington Park's biggest day of the year. All good stuff.

Before I look at this year's field I need to understand what to expect the turf to be like: The course is currently listed as Yielding. The weather leading up to Saturday suggests that rain is possible. I'm leaning towards the course still being soft, possibly listed as good, but I expect it will play fair and not favor speed. You have to make a stand on what you think the conditions will be before you break down the runners. There are some great Twitter and Facebook feeds out there you can tap to get a real time feel for the truth. Take advantage of the new information when you can. On raceday make sure you check scratches and changes and the tote board is always something to keep your eye on so you don't invest too heavily when the odds aren't in your favor.

I also like to take a few minutes and review the past, which is often a window into the future. From the racecharts I've taken a quick peek at the last six editions.



Glean what you like from it, but I'm focused on the favorite has been taking Place money more often than not and that the winner is being identified as one of the top three by savvy horse players. It looks like Show is in play with the average Show horse was typically the fifth favorite of the punters. Only one chalk has one in the past six editions.

When you're looking at this race, or any race with foreign invaders, avoid assigning mythical powers to these animals; Just because they are from Europe don't assume they will dominate. Respect them, sure, get as much information on them as you can, but don't ascribe brilliance too quickly.





Again, I'm leaning towards slightly soft going and I'm going to discount front running speed carrying over distance. I see the pace being set by Mission Approved, Proceed Bee and Dean's Kitten possibly. Cape Blanco (IRE) will be pulled back and kept about 1 length back to the inside. A bunch of closers, lead by Gio Ponti will be poised to strike at the top of the straight.

Flaws: Every horse has flaws that can make you shy away. Gio Ponti hasn't won in awhile. Cape Blanco (Ire) has been anointed, but look at the running lines, very inconsistent and no reason to be so respectful of the expected chalk. Mission Approved is an honest runner who will give you the same effort every race. I like the training at Saratoga and I think the 7 YO is poised for a good year.

Man O' War /Good Turf/ July 9,2011



This can either be a good betting race or a dud. I don't see the longest prices winning or placing under almost any circumstances. I don't think the trifecta will pay that well with my base handicap so I'll consider superfecta or super high-5 and take a swing at the fences.

The base handicap is built and again it's built with certain turf conditions in mind and its built with the pace scenario keyed on Mission Approved. Any scratches from the pace players will force a reassessment. Pay attention to the scratches and changes, as well as the tote board, and use your base handicap to quickly work through your own value versus reward equations. Finally, only bet what you are prepared to lose.

Do your own handicapping and remember the past is prologue. Thanks again for the Thorofan for allowing me to entertain you. I'm hopeful my degenerate core audience will become members soon.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 76th Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie and Post Race Analysis of Millions Preview Day

The Turk likes to recharge his handicaper batteries from time to time, and there are fewer places that do that as well or as quickly as the beach. Last summer I took the entire month of July off, as a blogger and a handicapper. I restarted in August and had a very good string of races post handicappers holiday, and I can point to other personal examples of when I stopped handicapping for a bit only to come back stronger. It's funny too, I don't like to take breaks during a dry patch, it's often after a big signer that I need a break, as I get sloppy after I get phat.

Anyhow, the Turk is spending quite a bit of time on Arlington turf races this summer and I have the video of the Millions Preview Day from last week and I handicapped my home track, Fort Erie, for the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, The Prince of Wales Stakes. The Turk Clan was thrilled by Blind Luck/Harve de Grace getting it on again yesterday. It's that sort of rivalry that drives enthusiasm and anticipation for the races. I'm proving that I can vacation and still keep in touch with the races.



The Modesty Handicap Grade 3



The American Derby Grade 2



The Arlington Handicap Grade 3



Sister Turk is liking Pender Harbor and she knows horse flesh. Mrs. Turk is all about the Welloiledmachine's name. Grandma Turk has Show Money on Check Your Soul, Papa Turk has his money on Jock Carignan and Oh Canada. Little Turk, god bless his soul, likes class 'capping and has Bowman's Causeway and Deana and Daniel Turk are still mulling the pages of the Form over.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 3 July 2011: The Chicago Handicap Grade 3 at Arlington Park

The Turk came as close as he's ever come to bragging earlier today when I discussed my handicapping knack: Identifying the top four. Now friends, I wasn't bragging, but I was pointing out that I'm less of a "winner picker" and more of a "layer identifier". OK Turk, WTF is a layer identifier?

While every field is different, within each field their are horses that are capable of winning, some capable of place and show, some capable of being on an exotic ticket and others that are just toss outs. Horses are wonderful animals but they don't read bald idiot bloggers like me, so there are factors like pace and traffic and sub-optimal surface conditions that sometimes blur the lines, sometimes wipe them out, but over time, over the mean average, results happen. I'm good at identifying which group each horse will fall into and with that, I'm disciplined enough to bet consistently, understanding I'll loose as many as 6 out of 10 boxed superfectas, but those 4 winners, those marvelous 4 winners, generally signers, more than make up for it.

A successful bet always starts with the handicap. It helps to have a field of sufficient size and quality. Regardless, the handicap is the key because without the ability to either "winner pick" or "layer identify", no matter how good a bettor you are, you just won't win. The Turk took down over $2000 on a simple 4 horse boxed superfecta, using the bettors least favorite horse, La Rocca as the Place horse, exactly where he ended up finishing. I don't get that hung up with "winner picking", I had the winner in my box and the payout is only a function of where the odds finish. La Rocca is the handicapping smarts you acquire after looking at Past Performances for multiple decades and the bet is the discipline that comes from, well, being disciplined (thanks Dad and the US Navy).

Arlington Park Race 9: The Chicago Handicap Grade III





So what did I like about La Rocca? Trainer Stidham is clipping along at 32% at AP, but he had two enties, the second, Lookn Even Finer, had Rosie Napravnik up, while La Rocca had 10% AP winner S.B. Martinez up. At first glance you may think the trainer is favoring Lookn Even Finer: look out for that angle, the weaker of a trainers two entrys. I liked the long and continuous AP track work, especially the 4F :47 and 4/5ths and 5f 1:00. I liked the 22% first time with trainer stat. The final sell for me, while Stidham is only 7% winner with >180 day layoffs the horse responded well off a long layoff from late 2009 into 2010. The last factor? Nobody else was that impressive as I rattled off the good and bad pre-race.

Home's the Best, the Illinois bred, was vanned off at the end of the race. Here's hoping the 7 year old mare is OK.

This is the kind of race that fuels my positive ROI and its a good example of what I try to explain to my readers and the ingredients to success: a solid pre race handicap, the horses slotted and fair odds gaged, and a consistent type of bet (at a bet amount I was perfectly comfortable losing and still being able to pay for Little Turk's braces).

Happy Fourth of July friends. I'll be back tomorrow with my fifth track of the weekend, Churchill Downs and the Firecracker Handicap over the grass tomorrow. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Chicago Handicap at Arlington Park and a Post Race Analysis of Graded Stakes Grab Bag

The Turk likes to take time to celebrate the little steps along the long road of life and The Turk and Little Turk have reached a milestone, 400 Blog Posts.

In the big picture those 400 Blog Posts didn't add anything to society but they did do wonderful things for me personally: I've met some truly interesting people and I have acquaintances and friends I can meet at all the major tracks around the country when I'm looking to enjoy a social moment and not just a hard core degenerate betting experience. Before the blog, before Facebook, Twitter, the web, I was alone in the horse racing experience, buying the form and placing my bets. The world spilled wide open and it was satori to realize that like minded people all over the country existed. The Turk and the Little Turk started as a simple outlet to post the 3H's: Horses, handicapping and our personal hijinks's. We've kept our simple approach and we have no intention of being anything other than what we currently are.

Thank you all for reading!

I enjoyed the smorgasbord of racing I handicapped yesterday, even if after I handicapped I felt that it was a pretty uninspiring collection of betting races, as the fields were a bit small and, quite honestly, I had no feel for a few of them. The best handicap and potentially the best bet I would have made was the Superfecta on the United Nations, powered by Teaks North finishing on top.

I'm in full blown 4th of July weekend relaxation mode; I always thought this would be the best weekend for the Millions preview at Arlington but the folks there think differently. As much as I love to handicap the grass at Arlington, I pretty much have had extremely mixed results handicapping the fake dirt there over the past two years. Today I take a swing at The Chicago Handicap, a seven furlong affair for Fillies and Mares, with my only real objective being to play the card and get a feel for the surface again.

Let's recap yesterday briefly and get to today's Chicago Handicap.



The Dwyer



The Suburban Handicap



The Shoemaker Mile



The Triple Bend Handicap



Everyone should have their own style of handicapping and betting; mine is to handicap, without morning lines or any pre race hype news articles, and then build a bet strategy after that. One downside is I often handicap races that have little to offer as betting opportunities to make cash at, but if you study the Past Performances, the Race Chart and the video, the effort is seldom wasted. Dominus was allowed to go through easy fractions in a yawner of a Dwyer. We wondered aloud where the pace would come from pre race and it never really came. With the scratch of Rocking Out the field dropped to six, the super option went away and this became a race to watch and keep the wallet in the pocket. We did have Adios Charlie finishing in Place. I keep stats for myself, which I don't bore you folks with, of my base handicaps that are contrarian to heavy chalk. Even without betting I take something away from this race and we move along.

In Race 10, The Suburban Handicap, I must admit that this field left me perplexed. In the history of my 400 blog postings I'm not sure I ever put up a handicap where I didn't toss someone, anyone. I had no intention of betting this race and I didn't and I'm glad as I would have never bet Flat Out. I was impressed by Hymn Book, who I discounted, but the bettors didn't, off the strong last race off the turf effort beating I Want Revenge (which use to mean something, but I am confused by what distance Rodman is best suited for because I dunno.

There is no bragging, ever, from the Turk. I keep to a strong code and bragging is prohibited. The closest I may ever come to bragging will be to describe what i do well as a handicapper. The United Nations is the text book superfecta win I assemble pretty regularly. A nice 10 horse field with a very clear line between who will be in the top 5 and who wouldn't be. Teaks North past performance had a bullet handride 4f :47 effort and a Grade 3 96 Beyer win effort at Monmouth on June 12th. I disliked the lack of wins at the distance but I made note of the 3 of 3 on Monmouth turf and 4 wins in nine tries on Turf. Nice win but I expected a top four finish, not exactly a win spot. The others just slotted in and the super paid $377. I call those workmanlike, not sexy.

The two Hollywood Park races I passed on as well and we'll just leave it to the video to tell those stories.

I handicap many more races than I could possibly blog. I'll handicap the whole Arlington card today and I'll start handicapping Arlington more over the next several weeks as I target Millions Preview Day and Millions Day. A fairly even collection of fillies and mares will contest today's Chicago Handicap. Florida Bred Hooh Why is is lifetime money winner as well as the high Beyer on fake dirt. The 5 Yo mare comes in off an N3X win at 7f on the AP fake stuff in mid June, but some 25 Beyer points lower than her lifetime best. Tidal Pool brings some name recognition and a 0-60 Graded Stakes streak in for D. Wayne Lukas. Dr. Zic competes almost exclusively in graded stakes action but doesn't win much; a nice Grade I at KEE in April 2010 seems along time ago now. Devil By Design is coming off a very long layoff, something Bill Mott wins 16% of the time. The 5 YO Medeglia d'Oro daughter hasn't done much in 11 months. La Rocca is with trainer Michael Stidham for the first time, a 22% win angle but he puts Martinez and his 10% win rate instead of Napravnik and her 21% win clip, whom he has up on his other entrant, Lookn Even Finer, who switches from turf/synth at a 24% clip and 23% winner off the fillies last race win. the former claimer is starting to grow on me.

Who did I miss? Illinois Bred Home's the Best ran a nice 93 Beyer at 1 1/8 miles over the fake AP dirt in late May and Hot Hot Mama doesn't have much but her name to excite me.

I handicapped and I'll watch to see how it all flops out. Have a good holiday weekend.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 21, 2010; The Arlington Million Grade I

The Turk has the opportunity to handicap one of his favorite Grade I races, the Arlington Million, for one of his favorite organizations, Thorofan, and the deadline is tomorrow morning. Like most things in life, timing is everything, and this is the sort of handicap I'd rather not finalize until mid Saturday afternoon. Why? What's the weather going to be like between Thursday night and Saturday early evening? That's a long time and it's the turf condition friends, it's the rain between now and then and the firmness or lack thereof, that might be what settles this thing. The Turk, like anyone foolish enough to publicly state opinion on races more then three days before the event, has to suck it up and give an opinion as best as possible based on what they think the situation will be. My base handicapping expects the turf to be something better than yielding and the rails to be set to zero.

Sorting your way through the foreign invaders and accurately placing them in context with the rest of the field is always challenging. What I really took away from this exercise is how undistinguished the older turf division is and how unmotivated the trainers and connections of the best European horses are to come to the mid Western United States to chase a purse such as this. As a handicapper, I try not to focus on who isn't in the field and only concern myself with who is. Let's get after it.

Arlington Park Race 10: The Arlington Million Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Turf for 3 YO and Up



The spreadsheet, while a bit busy, attempts to bring some context to the foreign runners first. I prefer the information I have with the North American runners but if you use Google to your advantage you can find out lots more now about these foreigners than you could have even 5 years go. It's not easy to get comfortable comparing Racing Post Ratings but that's what you have instead of speed figs. You'll find a good writeup by DRF Foreign ace, Alan Shuback, here.

Of the foreign runners, Tazeez (pictured above), a 6 YO gelded son of Silver Hawk, bred in Kentucky, appears to be the most serious.

I've attached a key race video of Tazeez, the Prince of Wales Stakes that Debussy (IRE) also competed in. While tiring, Tazeez contracted and then extended his stride again gamely.



Never put the cart before the horse: before you consider the bet, build your own odds line or modify the track handicappers based on your own opinions. I say at this point don't worry about looking for value or prices, under or overlays, simply focus on who will win, who has a chance to be in the top four, and who will miss even on the exotic tickets. In my mind, this is a two horse race between Tazeez and Gio Ponti. Behind them is a group of horses (Rahystrada, Debussy, General Quarters and Just as Well) that have an opportunity to finish in Place/Show or 4th and then four horses I consider on the outer fringe. While I said don't worry about the bet at this point, it is important to understand you can't cover all the possibilities and a handicapper will often toss good horses just because you must be decisive. These four tosses(Marsh Side, Tajaaweed,Quite a Handful and Summit Surge (Ire)) you can only hope they don't hurt you but that's why they call this gambling.

It's been 8 races and 16 months since Tazeez won a race. He cuts back a quarter mile from his last effort and takes Lasix for the first time. I generally discount left handed versus right handed running, but it appears he runs stronger going right, the wrong way in this case. I guess you could say you can be right and be wrong (the daily double: bad puns and bad handicapping!) I'm a big fan of Trainer Gosden so I will discount this statistical blip.

Gio Ponti most likely will be the post time chalk and its not like he doesn't deserve it. The son of Tale of the Cat has one of the lowest turf Tomlinson ratings yet he is looking for his tenth turf win in 17 tries with over $2.6 MM earned on turf alone. Gio Ponti won this race a year ago on turf listed as good , ran good on turf listed as soft, and has run very well on firm grass. My handicap has Gio Ponti taking Place but there is at least a 40% chance he wins this one.

The next layer down seems to have lots of equal ability horses. I like Just As Well to come up for Show. Hasn't had a three digit BSF since last September and hasn't one since last year's Arlington Millions preview day. Trainer Sheppard puts one of the great turf riders up with J. Leparoux. Has been closing with nice late moves and in terms of value, I'd expect his post time odds to be third best or worse and I like him to sneak up and win at >6-1.

General Quarters may be the key to how the final order works out. Seems to like softer turf versus hard grass listed as firm. Always game, such a fighter, the softer the going, the more you must respect him. I will shade General Quarters from Show to 6th place based on this scant information.

I'm not terribly impressed by Debussy (Ire) but that's only based on the running lines. the second entry for Trainer Gosden gets lasix and I'm not sure what the expectation is.

Rahystrada is another price that has enough ability to shock for a win but most likely can surge as high as Place and as low as 6th. Best BSF (100) was on firm turf at Churchill last November. Ran in 50K claiming races this time last year but wona Grade III on Million Preview day and deserves respect.

If I truly believe the results will be fairly chalky for the first three spots, then the risk/reward of too many superfecta choices just isn't worth it for much more than a dime. I'll keep the bet reasonable here, work a trifecta and exacta as well based on my base handicap and let it roll.



I'll be back tomorrow with my Pick Three for Arlington that climaxes with the Arlington Million.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 22, 2010: The Pick Three at Arlington Park including the American Guineas & Arlington Classic

It does make me feel like summer when I start handicapping turf races from Arlington Park. I love the paddock and I love the way the turf plays, even if I'm not great playing it. As for the main track, eh, fake dirt doesn't thrill me and with Belmont and then Saratoga open at the same time, I'd rather play those dirt surfaces then the main track at Arlington, but I love the turf! This panoramic paddock picture is from Cindy Pierson and Terence Dulay.

As for the betting, I won the Pick Three on a $2 bet that cost $24 to construct and my second choice once all three races. I had some value built into my bet but the chalk or almost chalk won all three. As for my Superfectas, close but no cigar. Let's go!

Arlington Park Pick Three May 22, 2010: Race 8- Race 9- Race 10 (hyperlinked to race charts)



It was a tale of losing two superfectas by a head and a 1/2 length. Orchestrator nipping Chantilly Nayla cost me in the American Guineas. In the Arlington Classic, Mister Marti Gras 1/2 length finish over Our Champion cost me the superfecta there. I kept the bets reasonable and it was a bit of a wash today:



Life is Grand. Have Fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: May 22, 2010: The Arlington Park Pick Three including the American Guineas and Arlington Classic

The Turk loves the Arlington Turf Course. It doesn't mean he plays it well, but as a horse racing fan, I love the course and the track itself. I've had an affinity for Arlington since I was a young man in the US Navy. I was living close to Arlington in 1985 when a small fire turned into a big fire and devastated the place. Arlington wasn't on my radar of understanding at that point but since then it never left. I vacationed there last summer and enjoyed myself very much and I'll be in paddock smoking a cigar and picking ponies on Sunday June 13. With that said, it's time I jumped in and played some races. My handicap is based on a weather forecast that shows the rain stopping last night and the races staying on the grass. If Race 8 is off the turf, I'll drop the Pick Three and just bet Race 9 and 10. Let's get it on!


Arlington Park Pick Three Race 8 - Race 9 - Race 10 (Google Doc Spreadsheet inserted)



Race 8, a $35,000 claimer isn't that compelling but it does seem clear that four of the horses are superior on paper, and I'm backing Maneke, with 8 turf wins, 2 at Arlington, to win the race, and if he falters Live from Appollo, Trying Brian and Hapman should be there.

Race 9 and 10 I'm going to play per my base handicaps unless there are major defections or the races come off turf. I'll be looking at 10 cent Supers with six horse combinations and keeping the best below $24. Keep your eye on Track Conditions and Scratches.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 8, 2009; The Arlington Millions Grade I

The Weather in Arlington Heights looks like it will be a bit dicey between two and five PM. You'll find the complete Arlington Card Comments at their website, and you are going to want to see what the turf condition is listed as at racetime. That fake stuff is always listed as fast.

Last year, the Turk and many others were shocked by the 12-1 French Invader Spirit One. I, as many other handicappers, struggle to make apples to apples comparisons of horses from Europe that are intermixed in the PPs with our North American runners. I purchased a copy of Alan Shuback's Global Racing and started to educate myself on the tracks, the races, the level of quality between a Grade I here and a Grade I in Singapore for example. I understand Mr. Shuback is at Arlington today signing books, seek him out and meet a true racing heavy hitter.

I love to handicap the races with the Euro invaders, and that is one of the big draws of the Breeders Cup for me, but my friends, handicapping and betting are two very different and mutually separate activities. If you want your ROI to stay positive and phat, handicap but don't bet on races where you don't feel you have enough information. You can track down everything you'd like on Stotsfold (GB), but it's a time consuming process and not something I do except for the Breeders Cup.

10 cent Super's are in fashion, so in full disclosure, that's going to be my focus.

Arlington Park Race 9 Post Time 5:42 ET; The Arlington Millions Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on immaculate Illinois Turf for 3 YOs and Up.



I like Gio Ponti, especially from gate 6. The 4 YO Tale of the Cat son exploded this year and looks to be a dominant older horse for a few years to come. He has a 1 1/4 mile Turf win on yielding turf in June and a 1 3/8 win on Turf in July on firm turf. He has 6 wins in his last 10 starts and 80% in the money in his last 10 races. He's a staggering 82% in the money on Turf and 7 wins in 11 starts. Smokin'. He'll make a late move off the pace, and their appears to be plenty of pace coming from Presious Passion and Gloria de Campeao.

The Turk is a big Einstein fan, but this isn't a popularity contest. Trainer Pitts has had this horse all over the condition book, but I like him the most on Turf. His last turf win was on turf listed as good and he put up a 106 BSF at 1 1/8. Amazing, he's only gone 1 1/4 once before, a miserable Arlington Millions last year. I may even have him too high, but its not unjustified. 11 of 17 in the money on Turf, 6 wins in last 13 starts, the races lifetime top money winner by a smidge. The 7 YO has been training since mid June. most of my tickets will have him dropping to place, show or also ran.

I like Gloria de Campeao (BRZ) to hit the superfecta ticket. Coming off a big win in the Grade 1 Singapore International Cup a 1 1/4 miles and a well beaten second to Well Armed in Dubai before that. Three wins and a place in last three races. I expect the 6 YO to prompt the pace and the last several hops will set his final position.

My biggest struggle was where to slot Presious Passion. The 6 YO gelding has announced himself as a Turf force. The veteran runner has 39 career starts, 36 on Turf and 12 wins. 50% in the money on Turf, 5 of 5 in 2009. His last few efforts on turf listed as yielding were not so good, so he's a runner I hedged down but will hedge up as the condition of the turf course becomes apparent.

For live and long, I like Mr. Sidney, coming off a yielding turf win a 1 mile in the July 4th Firecracker GII at Churchill Downs.

Little Turk and Mrs. Turk are backing Just as Well today.

This should be a fun a ticket and between Arlington, Saratoga, and a Turk family gathering, my next 12 hours are accounted for.

Enjoy.

I want to end with my heartfelt sympathy for the good folks of Louisville who suffered under Mother Nature's fury this week. The Turk is an Honorary Kentucky Colonel and a longtime sailor on the USS Louisville SSN-724. When I visited the Kentucky Derby Museum last October I was treated like royalty and given a wonderful 3 hour tour of every inch of Churchill Downs. I wish them the best as they rebuild.