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| Seeking the Soul: Coady Photography |
This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007. Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate. This is going to be an excellent betting race. There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.
You'll find Scratches and Changes here. You'll find the weather here, and by the looks of it we should have a dry, fast dirt track.
Let's get after it!
It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today. I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win. Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart.
Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018
Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.
Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts. One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt.
Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite. In his last ten races he's one three times: an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017. The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park. Woof! He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131. Here he was in good form at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.
Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well. An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.
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| Irap: WSVX FM |
I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti. I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all).
Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.
West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.
If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.
Razorback Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed
Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty. Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me.
Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out. While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles. 5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.
While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta.
In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1 at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year. I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.
Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence. Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K.
Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs. Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).
I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line. Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.
I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw. I tossed Imperative as I think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes. I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts. I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.
So what to do with all this?
I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets. I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward. My early thoughts are:
$1 Exacta: 10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7 $15
That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge Over Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)
That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea. This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap. Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.
Thanks for reading, Turk Out!
