Breeders' Cup 2018 Handicapping Homework: The Breeders' Cup Turf Video Review

Breeders' Cup Turf; Photo Harry How/Getty Images

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

The purpose of this post is to provide the last two and sometimes three races of each entrant in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf. 

The goal one week out is just to get a feel for the runners and link the past performances to the visual handicapping.  I'll come back tomorrow and start adding my notes and observations for each race.  It's alot of effort that I'll only invest into 3, perhaps 4 races over the coming Breeders' Cup weekend.  Any other betting I do will be done using a tote board handicapping method, strictly taking some low risk/medium reward cracks at positive ROI.

The following are covered here:

• Arlow 4 YO colt.  Sycamore, Kentucky Turf Cup. 
• Channel Maker 4 YO gelding.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Crystal Ocean (GB) 4 YO colt.  Championship Stakes and September Stakes.
• Enable (GB) 4 YO Mare.  Prix Arc de Triomphe and September Stakes.
• Glorious Empire (Ire) 7 YO gelding.   Sword Dancer and Bowling Green.
• Hi Happy (Arg) 6 YO Horse.  Knickerbocker, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green and Manhattan
• Hunting Horn (Ire) 3 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe and Secretariat Stakes
• Liam the Charmer 5 YO gelding.  John Henry Turf Championship
• Magical (Ire) 3 YO Filly.  British Championship Stakes and Arc de Triomphe
• Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) 4 YO colt. Mathias Machline.  
• Roaring Lion 3 YO colt.  QE2 Stakes and Irish Championship Stakes
• Robert Bruce (Chi) 4 YO Colt.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Arlington Million
• Sadler's Joy 5 YO horse.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Talismanic (GB) 5 YO Horse (2017 BC Turf Winner).  Arc de Triomphe and Prix Foy
• Waldgeist (GB) 4 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe, Prix Foy, Prix Saint Cloud

Return back to my blog, The Turk and the Little Turk,  all week leading up to the Breeders' Cup for more content.



The Sycamore G3:  Kee.  Good Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  18 October 2018




The Kentucky Turf Cup G3;  Kentucky Downs. Good Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  8 Sept 2018




Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational G1. Belmont.  Soft Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  29 September 2018




Sword Dancer G1: Saratoga.  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  25 August 2018




September Stakes G3: Kempton (UK).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  8 September 2018



Knickerbocker G2;  Belmont. Good Turf.  1 1/8 Miles.  8 October 2018




The Bowling Green G2;  Saratoga.  Soft Turf. 1 3/8 Miles.   28 July 2018



Secretariat Stakes G1; Arlington Park.  Good Turf.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018




Prix de l' Arc de Triomphe G1.  Longchamp (Fr).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  7 October 2018



Champions Stakes G1. Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf.  1 1/4 Miles RH. 20 October 2018




John Henry Turf Championship G2.  Santa Anita.  Firm. 1 1/4 Miles.  30 September 2018




British Championship Stakes G1 (F).  Ascot (GB). Soft Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 20 Oct 2018

Magical (IRE)




Mathias Machline (G1).  Gavea (Brz). Heavy Turf. 1 1/4 Miles LH.  4 August 2018



The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes G1.  Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf. 1 Mile.  20 Oct 2018



Irish Championship Stakes G1.  Leopardstown (Ire).  Good.  1 1/4 Miles  LH.  15 September 2018



Arlington Million G1.  Arlington Park.  Firm.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018



Manhattan Stakes G1.  Belmont.  Firm Turf. 1 1/4 Miles. 9 June 2018




Prix Foy G2. Longchamp (Fr). Firm. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 16 September 2018




Prix de Saint Cloud G1.  Saint Cloud (Fr).  Good/Soft.  1 1/2 Miles LH. 1 July 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Joe Hirsch-Photo by Blood Horse

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.   Joe Hirsch, known as the Dean of American Turf Racing has been gone over over 9 years now, but with a Grade One race, The Turf Classic, names after him, he's far from forgotten.

Such a different era on so many different levels.  the County was different, horse racing was prominent, journalists were respected, integrity and ethics were everything.  It's amazing to me how as a society we have devolved the institutions of news reporting, in my humble opinion set in motion by a perfect storm of deregulation, the treating of news media as entertainment, the collapse of print and the rise of the internet, where any half-ass blogger or tweeter can say anything in a few pithy sentences and have it read more often, by more people, than any long form writer could hope for.

The American's of Joe Hirsch's heyday had to get the paper and read the words written about the greats of turf.  For me, it was waiting for Sports Illustrated and the writing of another great voice, Bill Nack, or listening to Jim McKay on ABC Sports on the weekend.  The Turk is none of those men.  I am neither a trained journalist or a professional writer.  What I do have in common with them is ethics and integrity.  I try to express my views and opinions on the sport of horse racing, and handicapping in particular, with honesty.  There is enough of fake news in our world, I try not to add to that blight. I'm not a tout, as four a four-letter word as there are to me.  I'm also neither part of the online horse racing intelligentsia that chimes in from some moral high ground tweeting disdain for anyone deemed not worthy.  If you are reading the Turk, and I know who you are,  all I can offer is my love of the horses above all else, my thirty years of reading past performances and analyzing the repeating patterns of them and my bet construction thoughts.  Know this:  I'm not trying to get rich betting the races.  I'm game is purely to carve out positive ROI over a long period of time and this platform of mine, now in it's tenth year, most likely isn't going to change much.  If that's cool with you, thanks and let's get after this race!


The weather is dry but the tracks are soaked.  This one however is on the turf which I'm handicapping as Soft/Yielding.  By the way, I've already handicapped The Vosburg, which is on the dirt, currently listed as Good but I have hopes it will be Fast later today.

Five of the eight entries here last raced in the 1 1/2 Mile Sword Dancer on Travers Day (missing: Robert Bruce, Carrick and Teodoro)


Sword Dancer G1:  1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf SAR



Four the entrants went in The Bowling Green on soft surface.

Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles Soft Turf SAR



Robert Bruce (Chi) looking pretty strong swinging wide and closing at the Arlington Million.  Below you'll see him run a subtle 6th place finish but close to the winner in a blanket at The Manhattan. 

Arlington Million G1 : 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf AP

6 lengths back at the 1/8 pole.  Very strong showing indeed.












Here we have Carrick, a lightly raced 3 YO coming in from good turf at 1 1/4 Miles.  2 of 2 at Belmont, 4 of 4 in the money over turf.


The Secretariat G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Good Turf AP




The Manhattan G1:  1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf BEL



I watched a bunch of video as well this morning on Twinspires TV of Teodoro (Ire).  Lasix for first time, drops 5 pounds, cuts back in distance.  Very inconsistent.  Isn't chalk overseas. I'm passing for now.


What do we do with this information?  I can't say I have a very strong opinion as The Turk fair line illustrates.




I'm thinking low risk exacta where I'm purely hunting for value.  I may just put Channel Maker on top with four or five of the field below him.  Something like 8 OVER 3-6-1-2-7 for $5.  Perhaps that's a bet that you hit only 20% of the time, maybe less, but the reward is worth the capital risk, and you must face it, capital risk is part of any game where you hand 20+% back to the house before you even start. 


Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is in: The G2 Bowling Green and Jim Dandy and first weekend recap

Sadlers' Joy ar SAR: (c) NYRA/Chelsea Durand/Adam Coglianese Photography

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  To those that know me, welcome back and to any new readers, thank you for visiting.  The Turk Blog is in our tenth year of handicapping Graded Stakes Racing in the United States and Canada.  I'm a handicapper first and a bettor second.  I don't consider myself a "tout", quite frankly hate the term, and if my 30+ years of handicapping has taught me anything, it has been to stay humble.

My primary target today is a Pick 3 beginning with Race 8, the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes.  I may start that P3 with Race 9, the G2 Bowling Green and end it with an OC Turf race with a big field instead of trying to read the tea leafs on the Vanderbilt.  Regardless, my focus early is on the Bowling Green and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, so let's get after it!

I honestly never understood how people could handicap at the track.  After taking a course a few semesters ago on how people learn, I realized that my process requires quiet.  I get up early and handicap with a cup of coffee and a very quiet house and I generally do pretty well.  I wish I could be that guy in Section K of the Clubhouse scribbling away but it's not.  Know thyself!  I think I know myself pretty well, and boy do I love gutty and honest turf runners like Sadlers' Joy pictured above. I don't know if he'll win or not, but I know he'll show up and contest the route of grass.







Sadlers' Joy is 3 of 4 in the money at SAR, 3 of 4 in the money in 2018, 66% of the time in the money over turf and 71% of the time in the money at this distance.  He'll be dragging behind the pace before his speed comes with a very late turn of foot.  Trip is so key.  Castellano is up while Leparoux is on the long shot Glorious Empire (Ire).  Typical effort seen below in the Manhattan G1.

Money Multiplier finishes in Place, alot.  33% Place Finisher, 65% lifetime in the money.  Trainer Chad Brown with I. Ortiz, up, are 28% winners at SAR and Brown is a 27% Turf winner.  Ok, not stunning effort in the United Nations I posted below.

Hi Happy (Arg) has been a fun horse to watch this year.  4 of 4 in the money in 2018.  He'll be the one that Sadlers' Joy will have to race past if he wants to win.  Take a look at him repulsing Sadler's Joy in the G1 ManOWar below.

I like Bigger Picture and Highland Sky with late speed to possibly get into the ticket.  It's hard to not like a Mott horse but 4 YO Channel Maker I need to see more from but no denying his late speed either.


G1 United Nations





G1 Manhattan





G1 ManOWar en Espanol for Hi Happy (Arg)






In the Jim Dandy we are faced with a five horse field, of which 50% odds of winning have been placed on the 5 horse Vino Rosso.  I'm feeling contrarian and I'm making a case of Mark Casse's Flameaway.  Watch him crumble badly here at the top of the stretch.


The G3 Ohio Derby




This is a good horse, a Scat Daddy Ontario Bred. Reride should be the only other early speed.

Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial and is a solid Curlin, but 1-1 odds? Let's look at the Tampa Derby where he finished  up the track from the Place finisher, Flameaway.





I take nothing away from Vino Rosso, he didn't set his own odds, Less experienced players may want to just single Vino Rosso in a multi race exotic horizontal bet.  I'm less interested in winning small as I am in risking small to make big.  I'll be curious where his odds are at post time. 

Another Curlin, Tenfold should not be completely discounted. 


I'll be building bets later today and you'll find my thoughts on Twitter later (you can find me on the link in the right header of my blog). 

Last week's Blog Post I featured just two races, the Diana and the CCA Oaks. 

While I "won" both bets, I hunted for value in the CCA Oaks and didn't get it.  On $16 wagered I returned $55.60 for a $39.60 profit. 

The G1 Diana at SAR 7/21/18:  DRF PDF Chart

I really like that Sistercharlie (Ire) and so did the bettors.  It was me being less concerned about a small wager return or a loss and inserting Ultra Brat and Hawkmoor, the 4th and 5th horses in my handicap, to finish in the Place exacta spot that made the bet.  Once you reach that place as a gambler that you'll sacrifice capital for larger strikes you'll....get humbled back or go broke!  Always bet within your means.

G1 CCA Oaks at SAR 7/22; DRF PDF Chart

I'd like to wish Justify a happy retirement as well.  I've now been alive for 5 Triple Crown Winners and it's nice that I most likely will never have a time in my life again where there are no living Triple Crown winners, as that was a bit depressing.  I wagered $556 in the Triple Crown Season on almost no handicapping as I was deep into my final semester of school and I am also wildly busy at work.  I returned $857.25 for a $301 profit.  While not a great ROI, I considered it easy money.  My only losing bet was a Preakness bet against Justify.  Like I said, I'd rather lose now and then but take swings at long balls because if I would have connected that would have been a four figure payout. 

Turk's Twin Spires Account Bet log: Triple Crown 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!