The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs

Thank you to the Thorofan for allowing me the ooportunity to handicap for my fellow race fans. 

The Stephen Foster Handicap is the traditional kickoff to the second half of the horse racing season.  From this day a week after the Belmont, especially in the handicap division, all eyes are pointing forward to the Breeders' Cup Classic and races like this are great springboards for that.  What's not traditional is that it's under the lights, and while it is not traditional, very cool and I'm excited to have prime time racing to watch tomorrow night.  My only disappointment is with the field size of six.  While you could make a strong case for five of the six horses to win, at the end of the day it's a six horse field and I'm an exotic handicapper.  So what to do?

Well, the field size doesn't  preclude exotic options, but you have to be smart.  The Turk has been playing horses for a long time and the mistakes stick in my brain as much as the successes.  I hate to admit this, but many an exotic bet over the years I've won only to lose money.  Sad but true.  You can't over cover, and you can't invest more than you think the bet will pay.  If the bettor's top three choices come in 1-2-3, don't expect more than a two digit Tri and Super payout. 

But I'm ahead of myself:  The handicap always comes first.  I'd like to report to you that I see a horse in this field that will go to the gate greater than 8-1 and win but I'm not sure that I do.

Successful Dan comes in off a fake dirt win at Keeneland in the Grade 3 Ben Ali in April.




Successful Dan went :50 flat in the half, about :49 1/5 through the mile and rolled home for the last 1/8 of a mile at :11 2/5ths.  A criminal pace.  I don't think he'll be allowed to loop along like that today on dirt.  That said, you don't win 8 of 12 on a fluke pace or go 11 of 12 in the money by luck.  A very serious 3 wins in 4 starts at CF, with the one blemish the infamous DQ in the 2010 Grade 1 Clark Handicap. 

Ron the Greek, the now 6 YO Bill Mott trainee comes in off a game Show effort against Game on Dude in Charlestown Classic Grade 2.



Ron the Greek will be coming off the pace, most likely from several lengths back. 

Take Charge Indy, the 4 year old A.P. Indy colt comes in off a romping draw off win in the Alysheba Grade 2.





10 of 12 in the money, Take Charge Indy has won only once since the Florida Derby early in his 3 YO campaign. 

Golden Ticket is an up and down kinda runner.  J. Rosario is up for Trainer McPeek. Rosario is a 35% winner at CD with 14 wins in 40 starts.  4 works at Churchill since winning at 1 mile on May 2. 

Fort Larned, a 5 YO El Dubai son, had two miserable starts in 2013 tossing B. Hernandez off at GP in March and not firing in the Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2.  6 works at CD since the last effort, he'll either totally surprise me or he'll be out of the money, feast or famine.

Pool Play, the one horse I don't feel can win; You have to go back to the Hawthorne Gold Cup in October for his last win and comes in off two dull efforts.  The 8 YO Silver Deputy horse should be the longest odds on the board. 



I'll be honest:  I'm not sure if I like my bets or not.  I like my handicap.  I like Take Charge Indy on top and I think Fort Larned has a chance to not fire again, continuing the trend.  I plan on an Exacta as well as with Take Charge Indy over Ron the Greek and Successful Dan for $4 and I'll most likely play the Super only. 

Determine your own level of risk/reward and try not to emulate the Turk who has at times learned to take big piles of money and "win" smaller piles of money by overplaying horses in my exotics.

Have fun friends, Thank you Thorofan, Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: The Donn Handicap Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends and readers of The Turk and Little Turk, and a special welcome to the readers of the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I'd like to thank the Thorofan for the work that they do promoting the fans of horse racing and creating a community of horse racing fans throughout the United States.

I look forward to the Donn Handicap every year, the first big older horse division two turn racing. Good stuff for the horse racing fan inside me but a jagged reef for most handicappers. This early in the season you have a mixed bag of horses at different points in their cycle: Some are coming back from the farm, some raced continuously since the Fall, some are on their second runs off a long break. Trainers have targeted objectives for these horses and their objective may not be winning Grade 1 races in early February. All of these factors to me makes for incredible variability, good payouts, and a chance for frustration or glory. The Turk, a proponent of exotic betting, likes to keep it a bit simple when there are this many moving pieces, and quite honestly, not investing my hard earned capital on crapshoots is often the best course of action. It would be a pretty boring and unfulfilling handicap if I pulled the chicken switch, so we will put our best handicap forward and push up to the punters window with some cash.

Let's get it on!

2013 Donn Handicap Grade 1



There should be an interesting pace to this race, with a bunch of horses that might strike the front and try to stay there. With that much speed it may set up perfectly for a late breaker like the 8 year old, Pool Play: A $30,000 Silver Deputy has earned $1.2 Million through 20 of 34 lifetime money finishes. Another two who may break late and hit the wire or the ticket is Ultimate Eagle and Bourbon Courage. I'm leaning in a different direction, I'm going with the winner of the 2012 Florida Derby, Take Charge Indy.


2012 Florida Derby G1 Take Charge Indy wires the field




2012 Clark Handicap G1: A gutty Place for Take Charge Indy



Training sharply for Trainer Byrne, he's coming off a layoff that Byrne wins 20% of the time. Take Charge Indy is 3 of 3 in the money lifetime at the distance, 2 of 2 in the money at Gulfstream, and 6 of 9 lifetime in the money. His last race against a beast in Shackelford at the Clark was gutty. With Johnny V, up, he'll need to settle, relax and show something as a four year old he didn't show as a 3 Year old: Versatility.

The game winner of the Hal's Hope at Gulfstream is a logical win bet as well (I'd paste the video but some video troll at Gulfstream didn't allow for embedding)

2013 Hal's Hope G3 at Gulfstream

A 4 year old Kitten's Joy who has had good results at GP: 2 wins in 3 tries including a 103 BSF win in December.

Graydar is a very lightly raced Pletcher pupil, and he puts a steady hand in Edgar Prado up on him again as they look for their first stakes win.

So what do we do? I have a base handicap with the way I see the race unfolding. I think the speed may wear down and fade but I'm not betting the mortgage on this baby. I'll most likely box my top 4 for a Trifecta: That's a $48 dollar flier and horses that should all stay under 4 to 1. If you want to go safer, there will be a couple of horses under 8 to 1 like Bourbon Courage, Fast Falcon and Pool Play that could strike for Place. Build several bets with one horse keyed to Win and these two boxed to Place. For $18 dollars you can assemble an Exacta with Graydar, Csaba and Take Charge Indy to Win and drop Bourbon Courage, Ultimate Eagle and Pool Play in Place. I like it and I think I found my bet.

The key in playing the horses in my opinion is to do your homework, be prepared and not start handicapping after the last race goes final, have a plan and work your plan. I've been a horse player for most of my adult life, I watch the horses because I love these magnificent animals, but I handicap purely to relieve work stress and relax. Anyone can be break even if you take it seriously and do the work, and with practice you can scrape out a positive ROI. Bottom line though, have fun, it's a great sport.

I'm ignoring Flat Out at my own Peril.

Best of Luck, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Super High 5

I'd like to start by saying that it is an honor and privilege to be able to write the handicap for the Breeders' Cup Classic for The Thorofan Handicappers Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of horse racing enthusiasts representing horse racing enthusiasts. I'm proud to be a member and a contributor.

What I'm about to propose is risky, but the upside can get seriously large. I've handicapped and constructed a SUPER HIGH FIVE bet for the Classic. The Super High Five is not a regular option on the betting menu, but for Ye' Ol Turk, it represents my white whale, a glittering jewel that I like to claim not only for the money, but for the prestige as well.

The Base Handicap is as the name implies, my primary view of the field. With both color (Green-Yellow-Red) and with Letter Grades (A-D) my base handicap reorders the field into an expected order of finish. It's no different than what the morning line odds are doing except instead of generating my own odds line (which I tediously did for many years) I rank the horses with a grade below B- outside of the Exotic Pool generally. One of the more consistent comments I've gotten over the years is "Hey Turk, you're a chalk eater." I'm good with that, because I'm an exotic bettor mostly. I often don't really care who wins, as long as I have the winner covered in my matrix, the who's who of horses in the bet and out.

Now you can take the handicap and apply any sort of exotic bet over the top of it. The beauty of taking the time to build a base handicap is if a horse scratches, I'm only sliding horses up or down. Unless the field is devoid of pace, my base handicap allows me to calmly study the tote board before the betting windows close and make value decisions on who I put in the different slots to maximize profit. I'm really not a chalk eater, but I understand the criticism.

Criticism? Who cares. You're a handicapper, you aren't trying to convince everyone who's going to win, you have to convince yourself that your hard earned betting capital is worth putting at stake on a particular contest. You can think anything you want of me when this handicap is done. A handicapper has to have thick skin. It's sort of like a cornerback who just got burned by a beautiful deep ball from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson (ok bad example): you have to forget it before the next play. I've lost track of how many times one of my toss horses won a race. I don't focus on that, just the big picture overall, am I ahead or behind. Strive for consistency, in your handicapping, your bet construction and your capital investments.

Before I stop preaching, learn to walk away from a race. If this race was on Santa Anita's old fake dirt, with multiple European horses entered, I'd walk away in a second. I like to control the number of variables to as few as possible: I think the weather will be good, I think the track will be fast, I know every horse in the field well, I like my odds of separating the wheat from the chaff. What can't I control? The darn horses, they sometimes got a mind of their own, and nothing kills me more than seeing a neck or a nose separate a horse from the exotics from the also ran's.
Let's get after this before I bore you to tears!




Chalk eater or not, Game on Dude is 5 for 5 at Santa Anita. 5 of 7 in the money at the distance, Trainer Baffert, a 33% winner at SA, places Bejarano up, and the two have combined for 31% wins in 103 starts over past year at the Great Race Place.

Ron the Greek, and Bill Mott in general, have consistently left me a day late and a dollar short. Raise your hand, who saw Drosselmeyer coming last year? Two brilliant work bullets at BEL after a rare dud in his last outing. A Big Cap winner earlier this year gives him points with me but that field wasn't stellar. This Florida bred has consistently over performed and I'm counting him in here.

I love Richard's Kid. I'm shocked that he's 7 already. I hated what amounted to a lost year in Dubai but not my choice. I hated him getting yanked from Baffert, but again, not my choice. 3 of 4 in the money at SA, 5 of 11 in the money at the distance, 10 of 13 in the money over fast dirt, a strong late closer and I like how Trainer O'Neil has him going at 6f. I may be irrationally inflating his chances, but I like him in the top 5.

Nonios has been smokin' in the morning: :46 2/5ths at SA this week. No dirt wins, no wins at the distance and no SA wins for the 3 YO, and Pedroza and Hollendorfer are 4% winners together at SA. Ugh. I like his last race, I think he's on the upswing and I'm looking for value.

Flat Out was my pick last year. His last two wins were at Belmont. He's won at the distance twice, is a two million dollar earner, and he deserves exotic respect: 6 place or shows in last 13 and 9 of last 13 in the money.

Pool Play, the Hawthorne Gold Cup winner, 7 year old millionaire hard knocker. Strong late kick and I think he hits the ticket when it's said and done.

I tossed Brilliant Speed and Handsome Mike completely. If I get burned it will be by the group of Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve. This is an expensive bet and you have to make choices on who you cover, hard choices.

My bet is laid out with three options and displayed at $1 and $2 dollar investments. Who and how much you bet is your business, but invest responsibly. This is a hard bet to hit, so scale the base handicap back to Superfecta or Trifecta to increase your chances of not making a big pile of money get suddenly smaller. For those about to rock, we salute you.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park

With the end of traditional summer nearing, comes the close to the Saratoga and Del Mar meets, and a feeling that the inevitable winter is coming. Fall racing has its charms: Belmont, Santa Anita, Woodbine, Presque Isle is where I'll be playing and visiting. I've got my mind on PID Masters Day next Saturday, The Woodbine Mile day in two weeks, Jockey Gold Cup Day at Belmont the last Saturday in September and then a Goodwood Day visit to Santa Anita (or whatever name they call the Goodwood now!) That's a pretty good list of racing and it fits my goal of skipping this year's Breeders' Cup and instead seeing some different tracks on their big Fall days. Why am I skipping the Breeders' Cup? No deep seated reason other than I just don't feel like traveling for four days across country any more than my day job makes me do and just as importantly, the lack of stars that doesn't inspire me to make a trip of that size. By the way, keep Paynter in your prayers.

As a race fan, do you look forward to certain days at the track? As a fan I love them, but as a handicapper I've become very reliant on the tools and the space that I have at my disposal in my home. I'm fighting very hard the real urge to withdraw even further from the social interaction of the track and stay full time in my solitary handicapping kitchen haven. I don't have an answer for this, its more of a philosophical dilemma than anything else. The hard core race community are a social bunch, I don't want to be left behind.

Anyhow, my "non blogged" handicapping has been good, not great. My blogged handicapping has ranged from poor to mediocre. As always, I approach my handicapping with the same structured methods I've bored my meager readers with for nearly four years. I know my methods and rules, non exotic, no sexy angles, work. I'm a layer handicapper. I identify the layers that horses will run within and I slot the field accordingly. I should say my handicapping has been average but my bet construction has been below average. Two different sides of the coin. I've had decent handicaps go for waste when I built lousy bets. Often I can correct this by pulling money off the table and making all bets for a few weeks theoretical. My thought process is its easier to work through bet construction bumps in the road when there isn't real skin in the game. Do you take the long view? I like to think that I do. I'd rather take a chance of not cashing tickets for a few weeks in order to correct a bad habit or two. As a 'capper for life, I can live without cashing this weekend if it means I'm primed for a long hot streak. When you can't win to save your life, stop. It's that simple.

I choose today's Washington Park Handicap for no reason other than the field interested me: Geldings Mister Marti Gras and Workin for Hops are Turk favorites and I'm curious to see Prayers for Relief, placed here my Steve Assmussen who doesn't ship into AP often, and Pool Play, the $36.6-1 winner of the 2011 Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap. It's not complicated, I'm a horse fan, I wanted to play these horses.

Maybe I say this more when I'm cold, but this is a tough field. There are easier marks on the race card today but we'll just see what we can do with this, no worries.

Let's get after it!



The Turk has set a tentative chalk, the 5 YO gelded son of City Zip, Workin for Hops. Trainer Stidham is winning 21% of his turf/syth switches and he's a 4 of 5 winner at AP when placing Robbie Albarado up. 3 of 3 in the money at AP but winless in four tries in 2012. I like the sharp work and the price should be attractive, perhaps 3rd or 4th on the tote board. DQ'd to third here last year, he returns to meet his foe from that day, Mister Marti Gras.

Chris Block wins 31% of his turf to synth switches, and he tries to get Mister Marti Gras into the win column in his sixth race of 2012. I suspect he will be the betting favorite at post time and there is plenty to like: 3 of 3 in the money on fake dirt and a win here last year in this very spot. A competitive graded stakes runner, modestly bred but an honest runner who's 15 of 25 in the money lifetime. I will take a stand against the win for pricing reasons, but in base handicap terms I find him equal or better to the best here.

I like the late running (and big priced) Hattaash to crash the top three party; Two nice N2X runs at this track, 7 of 8 in the money at AP, Rosie Homeister is up for infrequent graded stake contestant, Trainer Charles Bettis.

Which leaves a big name and a talent to account for: Prayers for Relief is the fields youngster and the only millionare. No wins in 7 tries in 2012, all Grade 1 and Grade 2 except his last try, a Remington Park loss by a nose to Alternation. Asmussen doesn't come to AP often so I'm sure he picked this spot for the former California shipper who did well coming East for real dirt racin'. Could go off at 1 to 1 odds and I'm just not that interested. From a base handicap perspective I should place him in the top three but I'm going to take a chance (gambling after all) that he is no better than Show.

Pool Play is making AP debut today as well, winless in 8 starts on Turf, 14 of 21 in the money on fake stuff, mostly Woodbine's. I may be wrong with him, but the 7 YO doesn't seem right since his 13 month break when he recovered from injury and then found the stallion market a bit, ummm, flaccid.

That's a nice field; I'm tossing the 1 and 2 horses and taking a stand against the expected chalk Prayers for Reliefas well as Pool Play and I'm expecting a late run to put Hattaash to hit the ticket with a long price in tow. Everyone else is in the layer.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!