Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Mile and Pick Three

It's been sometime since the lovely Dita wanted to sit with the Turk for a cigar. While we didn't talk much, instead reflecting quietly on the maduro wrapper and the sun cured tobacco that was loving rolled by the artisans at Padron Cigars, she did say that the fact that The Turk preaches just a few simple principles, that he talks it and walks it, made her want to celebrate. Who am I to say no?

Simple principles. Principle #1 is always to pick your marks. There are lots of races every day, find ones you think you can beat. Principle #2 is that you have to build a base handicap, a reordering of the field from start to finish without the bias of morning lines, talking heads, TVG/HRTV/DRF hype. Principle #3 is to take that handicap and work the tote board. I'm looking for value, not chalk, and with my "built in a vacuum" handicap approach, look for horses you are bullish on that you seem to have a different opinion on then the betting public.

I reckon those are the big three. The Turk hit a nice strike on an unlikely Allowance Race on synthetic track none the less because he followed his principles. Let's go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7



The target was the Pick Three. The Pick Three paid $188 and I should have hit it, winning the first and third legs, but missing on the leg I singled. My second highest ranked horse won the race but I made a decision to not spend $36 on a Pick Three that seemed very chalky to me and I can take losing $12 dollars instead of over covering the bet. Others will disagree but over the long run over covering will raise the investment and only marginally increase the ROI.

I was watching the tote board for Race 6 and salivating; My base handicap valued horses that were the 5th and sixth favorites of the betting public. My top horse, New Englander was the overwhelming bettor's chalk but I thought Place and Show would be owned by these value horses and I'd have a nice payout. Taking my top 5 I rolled the dice, and lacking the time I normally have, I boxed all five and let it ride. Boxing Sherribaldi, Iowa Alice, Jewels and Jeans , the 4th, 5th and 6th top choices of the bettors and then having them actually win produced a $1,442.60 trifecta win.

Remember, this isn't bragging. The Turk doesn't brag and he respects this game. I am humbled by it regularly, but you have to savor the good times along the path of life, and this was a good one for Big Turk because it was an affirmation of my principles and the time that I put into my craft.

I made the strike and didn't even care to bet the Presque Isle Mile, which I had pretty much horsecollered and I left some money on the table in that race, but I'll leave you today with another principle: Don't be greedy, forget the idea of needing "action". Pick and choose the races you bet. If you're not concentrating or you don't feel it, keep your money in your pocket and walk on.

Thanks Mrs. Turk for your patience.

Remember 9/11 and what we collectively lost on that day.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Downs Mile and the Pick Three

The Turk caters to a certain reader; a review of my analytics paints me a picture of some heavy hitting hard core gamblers that are reading my blog at this very moment. Those hard core whales are looking for some action on a Friday afternoon, and this weekend, I'm all about Presque Isle Downs. Presque. You don't have to pronounce it to play it, so lets give it a twirl. In all seriousness, for a Race Casino, it's a nice place, an easy location for the Turk to get to, and there are all kinds of things around it like huge outlet malls and water splash parks for those of you that like that stuff. The beer is cold, the tapeta crap plays pretty fair, and you'll likely to see a Sheppard/Strawberry/Augustin Stable runner there pretty often. They have positioned their big weekend on the first weekend after Saratoga ends. Not bad, well played. Let's Go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7 including the $250,000 Presque Isle Mile



Some interesting fields will make these races challenging, but challenging is what I'm all about at the end of a long day! In Race 7, The Presque Isle Mile, I stewed on these runners for sometime trying to logically write them down in a predictive order of finish. I settled on Gayego to win, a tepid chalk for me indeed. 8 of 11 lifetime in the money on the fake stuff and familiar with tapeta from the tracks he ran on in Dubai, Alan Garcia ships in to ride for Godolphin. he's stretching back out to a mile after settling into the 6-7 furlong distances but he's capable.

Stunning Stag takes the QEW down from Woodbine for Sid Attard. Pulling back in distance, he's training very well and has looked sharp since May. Easily capable of winning, watch the odds, 6-1 in the morning line, I think he sinks to 7-2 by post time.

Who knows what Mambo Meister will bring? Trainer Gleaves only wins 12% of the time stretching out from sprints to routes and wins only 13% of his routes and 14% of his races overall. This is his 31st start and only second fake dirt try. I'm discounting him a few spots on many cards and I should show some conviction and drop him further but the horse is 19 of 30 in the money lifetime and has the class. I'm dropping him a few slots on most cards.

The second tier is a very nice collection of horses and many of them could easily beat Mambo Meister into that top three. Successful Dan ships in for Grade I winning Trainer Charles Lopresti and he gets Eclipse Award winning J. Leparoux up. He's been training sharply at Keeneland on the fake stuff and ran last out at Arlington in early August on that fake stuff.

Allie's Event won an N2Y with a 92 BSF at 1 mile here at PID in mid August. A 4f :47 last week lets us know he's still sharp. He represents serious value if he reaches the gate >7-1.

Last year's champ, Cherokee Artist returns as a 5 YO. More than capable still. Rocking Rockstar has won 4 starts in 8 tries on fake dirt and his last two synthetic efforts were, rockin. I Know Why, a 4 YO sin of Why Why Why tries fake stuff for the first time but has won three times this year and could break the top four.

I'm going to single the middle race and keep the bet risk relatively low for the pick three at $18. I'll bet the mile with Super's and Tri's with variations of my base handicap including some variations where I will drop Mambo Meister out of top four and Gayego to Show and fourth.

The Turk is all for Chip getting Mine That Bird back for his 5 YO season. I don't know what the Bird has left but it seems to me that he's been placed in positions all year of unrealistic expectations. I had a blast on Woodward Day at the Spa with Sister Turk and I'm glad I got to see the gelding run.



Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup Sprint Grade I

That gorgeous Unbridled's Song son is Zensational, the Turk's heavy duty chalk in today's Breeders' Cup Sprint. He'll be facing the best field that he has ever jumped towards the wire against including Fatal Bullet, Godolphin's Gayego and Euro G1 winner Fleeting Spirit, along with a few wild cards like Join in the Dance and Capt. Candyman Can.

The picture was posted online by beausea34 at Zoomr.com. Expect three quarters of a mile in less then sixty eight and 1/2 seconds, yeah. Let's go!


Race 4 at Santa Anita Post Time 3:10 ET; The Breeders' Cup Sprint Grade I; 6 Furlongs on carpet fibers, shredded tires, blah blah blah, for 3 YOs and up.


Heavy duty chalk can work in your favor in several different ways; you can take a completely contrary position and hope for a loss, in this case looking for perhaps a 9-2 or 5-1 second bettor's selection -OR- you can fashion exotic tickets with one spot locked up, allowing part wheels or matrix betting instead of expensive and often unnecessary boxing. Whatever approach you take, be consistant, build your handicap and then work the handicap for value.

No chalk is unbeatable, but I like Zensational in this race. Five straight 100+ BSF's when running less then 7 furlongs, 6 of 6 In the Money on fake stuff, and some incredibly fast work, including a smokin' hot :45 1/5 at 1/2 mile this past week. Curious if he can match Midnight Lute's 1:07:08 in last year's Sprint.

Fatal Bullet is a horse I like in most situations and is the Place from last year's edition of this race as well. Coming in off a Grade III 6f win on Keeneland's version of fake dirt. Had a fantastic 3 YO campaign, 8 of 8 in the money but only 4 starts including today in 2009 and a lack of Grade I wins. 11 of 11 in the money on fake dirt and training well at SA going 5f in about :59 flat.

Gayego is not a horse I was high on as a 3 YO and I think Godolphin have done a good job making a sprinter out of him and enters off a romping Grade I prep win in October at Santa Anita. Gomez is up. 4 of 4 at the distance and 6 of 7 in the money on fake stuff. Morning line 2.5-1, I'm curious to see what way he heads on the tote board.

Fleeting Spirit (Ire) ran in the Turf Sprint at last year's Breeders' Cup and his connections take a different tack this year. Dettori is up versus normal Queally. 11 of 13 in the money on turf and a Grade I winner in July at 6 furlongs earning a 123 Racing Post Rating and next two Grade I attempts were very close losses. A wild card to be sure.

Capt. Candyman Can is my poor man's Hard Spun. Hard knockin' and that's a compliment. No wins in 2 starts on fake dirt and no turf starts. 3 straight 100+ BSF's and a King Bishop win through disqual and a 1/2 length loss to Fatal Bullet in October on Keeneland's fake stuff. Like the Candy Ride's . Morning Line of 15-1 is not right! Hedge up and never doubt guts.

Join in the Dance is a horse I honestly forgot all about. A ho-hum Triple Crown prep racer and a bad loser the last two times out including a 9 lengths Place finish in PA to Gone Astray. Major distance drop from previous efforts. Who knows?

Build a handicap and trust your handicap. Watch the tote board closely and don't worry about the weather. Have fun, Turk Out!