The Turk had a very forgettable weekend of handicapping, with the Donn, the Holy Bull and the Santa Monica all giving him no joy. My fellow horse racing aficionado at amateurcapper.blogspot.com tells me quite correctly that the bias was too great to overcome at Gulfstream Park. While I don't disagree completely, I think that bias is relative to the horse, especially at 1 1/8 miles, and that a quality horse can overcome the bias. My mistake, especially in Holy Bull, was throwing the bias out completely.
The Holy Bull G3, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs
The Donn Handicap G1, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up.
Even when you're not correct you should try to learn/decipher/grasp/rationalize what happened, good and bad.
In the Holy Bull I discounted Saratoga Sinner, as much as I loved the name. The horse had worked very fast before its last race in early January. Leading up to the Holy Bull, the horse's work was dull. I'll be watching Saratoga Sinner, but I don't see how you pick this horse to win from the PP. I guess that's why I'm engaging in "loser talk". Steve Byk spoke highly of Reade Baker's Bear's Rocket, and the horse had worked good, but nothing breath-taking, plus the horse is mostly a synthetic runner. Mrs. Turk nailed this pick in full disclosure.
In the Donn, I was on the hunt for a horse that I thought would bring me good value with a legitimate chance. Anak Nakal went off at $11.50, the bettors 6th favorite choice. He had a great run line, "...was outrun...." Really? Did they have a team of monkeys on that? I was surprised how well Finallymadeit ran. Two races in two weeks. Break up the Yankees!
And in the Santa Monica, I picked Ventura, liked Jibbom, and thought Baronness Thatcher would make the top three. Baroness Thatcher was very strong to the top of the stretch and then dropped like a stone.
Back after it next weekend. If you ain't in it, how you gonna win it!
Showing posts with label Jibboom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jibboom. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Saturday, January 31, 2009
The Nomination is In: January 31, 2009
The Santa Monica Handicap, G1 at the Great Race Place, Santa Anita in beautiful Arcadia, CA. 7 Furlongs on what is called "Pro Ride", fake dirt that maybe is better for the horses, maybe isn't, depending on if you are a Euro who likes to win "dirt" races in the United States or not. For Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.
The Turk apologizes for posting three times for three seperate races. Generally he likes to combine them into one post, but today's been a rather odd flowing day for him, and quite honestly I didn't expect to have the time to handicap all three graded stakes that had my attention.
Today is January 31st. Monday is Groundhog Day. I am a rather hearty Northern Climate guy, but this has been one brutal winter. I'm in the green energy business, so I love global warming because it is making my company lots and lots of money, but you couldn't convince me that the orb is heating up. The two images I present of winter show the joy and sadness of living in the north.
That's the Little Turk, doing what he does best, love life.
And that is Kay, The Turk Clan foundation Weimaraner. She does not like to do her business in the snow. I digress.
It's really a coin toss between Indian Blessing and Ventura. I went with Indian Blessing today because I'm thinking she has better current form. As a live long shot, I like Baroness Thatcher. I like the work, I like the first time blinkers, and it seems to me that she could be there with the best Beyer of her career today.
I'm staying on the sidelines for this one. I don't really see a betting opportunity I like right now, but as always watch the board and look for value against your scorecard.
The Turk apologizes for posting three times for three seperate races. Generally he likes to combine them into one post, but today's been a rather odd flowing day for him, and quite honestly I didn't expect to have the time to handicap all three graded stakes that had my attention.
Today is January 31st. Monday is Groundhog Day. I am a rather hearty Northern Climate guy, but this has been one brutal winter. I'm in the green energy business, so I love global warming because it is making my company lots and lots of money, but you couldn't convince me that the orb is heating up. The two images I present of winter show the joy and sadness of living in the north.
That's the Little Turk, doing what he does best, love life.
And that is Kay, The Turk Clan foundation Weimaraner. She does not like to do her business in the snow. I digress.It's really a coin toss between Indian Blessing and Ventura. I went with Indian Blessing today because I'm thinking she has better current form. As a live long shot, I like Baroness Thatcher. I like the work, I like the first time blinkers, and it seems to me that she could be there with the best Beyer of her career today.
I'm staying on the sidelines for this one. I don't really see a betting opportunity I like right now, but as always watch the board and look for value against your scorecard.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 3, 2009
The Turk has a few axioms he lives by as a handicappper. Most of these handicapping rules I stole from other people, men like Brad Free and Andrew Beyer, but that's neither here nor there and luckily personal integrity isn't mandatory to bet the ponies.
The most important thing we do when picking horse races is identifying what horses have a chance to win and which ones don't. I love to state the obvious. Picking potential winners out of a field of twenty or less is where it all begins. The sexy handicapping thing is to talk about exotic plays with matrix charts and wheels. I'll save sexy for other people and I'll stick with simply trying to identify who I think will win, who I think has a chance to win, and who doesn't have a chance in a one horse match race.
In the races I handicapped yesterday, I identified three of the top four horses in each race. Of course I'd prefer four for four, and I strive for that type of perfection, but it is what it is. What we do with the information of who may win is where sexy comes into play. Turk won't be bringing sexy back anytime soon.
In Race 4 at GP, The Spectacular Bid, a 6f shindig on dirt for 3 YOs.
Notonthesamepage had been beaten soundly by some of the best 2 YO's in fall racing, taking on Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, Munnings, Square Eddie and Pioneer of the Nile. He drilled 4f and 5f works since early December and the reduction in distance powered him to an impressive win by 8 1/4 lengths. I missed with Jazzandthemagician, and I never saw Bee Cee Cee, nor did the bettors.
In Race 8 at Aqueduct, The Count Fleet, 1 mile and 70 Yards on NYS dirt, the result was not surprising to anyone. Haynesfield winning by 3 1/2 lengths over a slim 5 horse field propels himself squarely onto my Derby watch. I was disappointed with Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq, and hopefully they will be on a track again within 4-5 weeks.
And at Santa Anita Park, The Great Race Place, Race 8, The Monrovia Handicap G3, About 6 1/2f on the downhill Turf Course, for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.
Jibboom was my only A plus horse, my chalk, going into the race. I liked his works of 4f and 5f going into the race. I was happy with the odds up on the board and cashed $5.40 on the win. I liked Society Hostess, but she never really fired. I never saw Christina's Heat and I had her lumped in as a B minus, top 8 horse. Good for her. Looking at her in hindsight, she's a steady girl, and she gave her usual steady effort yesterday. I'm going to watch her and see where she's entered next.
It was a fun first weekend of the new year.
The most important thing we do when picking horse races is identifying what horses have a chance to win and which ones don't. I love to state the obvious. Picking potential winners out of a field of twenty or less is where it all begins. The sexy handicapping thing is to talk about exotic plays with matrix charts and wheels. I'll save sexy for other people and I'll stick with simply trying to identify who I think will win, who I think has a chance to win, and who doesn't have a chance in a one horse match race.
In the races I handicapped yesterday, I identified three of the top four horses in each race. Of course I'd prefer four for four, and I strive for that type of perfection, but it is what it is. What we do with the information of who may win is where sexy comes into play. Turk won't be bringing sexy back anytime soon.
In Race 4 at GP, The Spectacular Bid, a 6f shindig on dirt for 3 YOs.
Notonthesamepage had been beaten soundly by some of the best 2 YO's in fall racing, taking on Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, Munnings, Square Eddie and Pioneer of the Nile. He drilled 4f and 5f works since early December and the reduction in distance powered him to an impressive win by 8 1/4 lengths. I missed with Jazzandthemagician, and I never saw Bee Cee Cee, nor did the bettors.
In Race 8 at Aqueduct, The Count Fleet, 1 mile and 70 Yards on NYS dirt, the result was not surprising to anyone. Haynesfield winning by 3 1/2 lengths over a slim 5 horse field propels himself squarely onto my Derby watch. I was disappointed with Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq, and hopefully they will be on a track again within 4-5 weeks.
And at Santa Anita Park, The Great Race Place, Race 8, The Monrovia Handicap G3, About 6 1/2f on the downhill Turf Course, for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.
Jibboom was my only A plus horse, my chalk, going into the race. I liked his works of 4f and 5f going into the race. I was happy with the odds up on the board and cashed $5.40 on the win. I liked Society Hostess, but she never really fired. I never saw Christina's Heat and I had her lumped in as a B minus, top 8 horse. Good for her. Looking at her in hindsight, she's a steady girl, and she gave her usual steady effort yesterday. I'm going to watch her and see where she's entered next.
It was a fun first weekend of the new year.
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