The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome back to The Turk Blog, where I previously handicapped Race 11, the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3and today we target Race 12, the Pegasus World Cup Turf Cup G1.
So much nuance on the past performances, especially for older runners over routes of grass. My base handicap tries to ignore the pace scenario and focus on ranking who the best horses are, in order, and then a fair line is set. The fair line is set to 100% while the Morning Line is calibrated to track takeout, ever increasing track takeout. I don't get hung up on the percentages too much, but the ordering of the horses and where I think they may finish relative to an exacta bet, the focal point of this blog. So much nuance with this group. That handsome fella to the left is Ivar, the b7 year old son of Agnes Gold (JPN) from Sunday Silence. They really can bred the turf runners in South America.
I am just going to post my base handicap for now. I spent so much time building it I ran out of time to prattle on about the video I pulled on many of them.
The Pegasus World Cup Turf International G1; 1 1/8 Miles on expected Firm Turf for 4 YO and Up
I'm going to go deep with this one, taking my Win and Place horses into the exacta: My initial thoughts just to memorialize it is: $2 Exacta: 10/12 OVER 10-12-6-2-7-9 for $20.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. Our blog, now in its thirteenth year, focuses primarily on turf handicapping of the handicap division. Today's post is written primarily for the The ThoroFan and the Handicapper's Corner. The good people at The Thorofan have created the only nationwide fan- centric organization in the horse racing community. God knows this sport needs a few things, like a sense of community and relevance and joining The Thorofan will allow you to find like minded people who enjoy your passions too!
Who doesn't like a good "whodunit", the classic murder mystery. Handicapping is a lot like that. You have all the usual suspects, you have backstories, competing motivations, strangers in a strange land, and drama. The Pegasus Turf offers all these things. There is no real strong suspect, the race is held without race day medications being given (is it really so hard?), and you have a motley crew of veterans and up and comers. To me, turf racing epitomizes horse racing, a sentiment I know my fellow American's don't really embrace, but as the years go by for me, it's the sort of racing that offers good sized fields and lots and lots of intrigue, the proverbial "whodunit", or maybe more appropriately, who will do it.
I've found recent video on every horse in the field. I think its important to look closely at the Race Charts in concert with videos. It's very easy to brush through the PPs and see a horse hasn't won in three starts, but how many beaten lengths was he, what was the trip like, how impressive was the late turn of foot? The paper tells quite a bit of the story but the video brings it color and sound.
Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 2 November 2019; 1 1/2 Miles Firm SA
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1: 5 Oct 2019; 1 1/2 Miles Firm BEL
The Fort Lauderdale G2: 14 Dec 2019; 1 1/8 Miles Firm GP
The Sea Biscuit Handicap G2: 30 Nov 2019; 1 1/16 Miles Good Turf DMR
The Hollywood Derby G1: 30 Nov 2019; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf DMR
Hong Kong Cup G1; 8 Dec 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Good Turf' Sha Tin (HK)
Breeders' Cup Mile G1; 2 Nov 2019; 1 Mile Firm Turf SA
Arlington Million G1; 10 Aug 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf AP
It appears the weather will be dry. You can find the scratches and changes along with track conditions here. I'm handicapping expecting firm turf.
The mare, Magic Wand (Ire) just jumps off the paper in terms of pure class and ability. Look at the Hong Kong Cup video above and just watch her explosion in the last 1/8 of a mile as she comes out of traffic and surges. $4.1 MM in earnings. Only 3 wins in 22 turf starts. Only 1 win in 10 starts at this distance. Trainer Aiden O'Brien ouch: 0 of 24 starters last rolling year in Graded Stakes NA, 0 of 28 Turf Starters. With the bloodstock he has access to, that is staggering. I know its a challenging trip but wow.
I have a group of three after the Mare. Arklow is first back after Breeders' Cup, a 61-180 day layoff that trainer Cox does well with, 24% winners on 87 tries. 5 of 7 in the money in 2019 as a 5 YO but only one 1 win, a game Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at 1 1/2 mile. First GP start. 12 of 24 life time starts ended in Win-Place. Without Parole (GB) is first back off the Breeders' Cup Mile. The distance seems to be the biggest question for him although his breeding implies he should handle it, he is one of only two here with a Tomlinson Number >400. Chad Brown Trainee put up bullet 5f last week. No Wins in 3 starts in 2019. Mo Forza is a wildcard. 4 YO son of Uncle Mo should be faster than he's shown. Peter Miller's trainee has won four straight. 7 of 9 in the money over turf and the only other +400 Tomlinson Distance Rated Number in the field.
My exotic/show horse group is four deep and of that two I suspect are better than the other two. Sacred Life (Fr) is 11 of 13 Win-Place finishes lifetime. Chad Brown trainee. Game and gritty. Loses class battle and he's never seen a field like he will today. Late speed and effort could propel and long tote board odds make me consider him in back half of exacta. 7 YO Zulu Alpha first back from Breeders' Cup Turf. 5 straight 100+ Beyers. 10 of 18 in the money over past two years. 16 of 26 in the money over grass. Won at this distance here in March 2019. What you see is what you get. The same can be said for 7 YO Sadler's Joy. Trainer Albertrani skipped the Breeders' Cup and found a win in the G3 Red Smith at AQA in late November and now first time back. 18 of 26 in the money lifetime. Channel Cat is Todd Pletcher's lone entry. Trainer Pletcher was in a downturn last year around this time winning "only" about 22% of the time. That has slipped to 10% Graded Stakes wins in 129 starts over the rolling year. This 5 YO loses class but has enough intangibles to be considered in tickets.
For better or worse I'm tossing everyone else because you can't cover them all. I could have made a case for Next Shares in the exotic group, and Henley's Joy will get better but the water is deep here.
So what to do with it? While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2. Even then, it should still pay about 2/3's the cost of the bet, sop gambling that the order and the value pops favorable may be the uncomplicated play.
Alternatively, I'm inclined to $1 exacta 12-2-3-10 OVER 12-2-3-10-11-1-4-5 for $28.
Final Alternative, I'll be watching Arklow closely. If he's 4-5 to 1 I may single and bet a few horses under him in exacta. Lots of options. Arklow may represent the safest Win bet. Cox is on top of his game and Brown's runners here aren't world beaters.
I'll be thinking about this right up to post when I get a look at the odds. A win bet on Mo Forza at the right price isn't out of the question.
The Turk began his 2020 handicapping challenge, entitled 52 bets in 52 Weeks. Through the first three weeks of 2020 the ROI sits at 40.6% with winnings of $227 on $162 dollars wagered. It's a small sample size, plenty of time for the Ol' Turk to screw the pooch. Last Week I took a shot on a race I knew I should have passed on, the Sunshine Millions Turf. As you can see, my base handicap was dead on but this was the result the betting public overwhelming picked. The straight trifecta I handicapped cold paid $3.65 on a $1 bet. Ugh. I bet an exacta hoping that someone other than Beautiful Lover would finish in Place. Close, but ultimately class prevailed. I turned $10 into $4.60. The stuff of legends.
The first day of March. It's bitterly cold outside, but after yesterday, my Derby fever is really heating up.
There are 401 horses nominated for this year's Triple Crown and the contenders are starting to peal away slowly from the vast number of pretenders. For each Old Fashioned, we have numerous Parade Clown. For each Quality Road we have a plethora of Jack Spratt. For each The Pamplemousse we have Tiz True in legion.
I don't blame the horses, I never blame the horses. Horses are what they are. It's us humans that assign the lofty goals to them. Some of these horses in the Past Performances with the fancy Triple Crown nominee logo will be fun runners, some graded stakes winners, some hard knockers who give it their all and thrill us for years after this year's 3 YOs are off at stud.
I watched four races yesterday, with mixed, semi-poor results. The handicapper in me knew that much is still to be revealed at this point in the year, so I kept the bets small and enjoyed the races for what they were.
Race 8 at Aqueduct: The Stymie Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on the inner dirt track for 3 YO and up.
I expected Researcher to be the chalk and I expected play on Manteca. I was semi-surprised that Barrier Reef was the chalk, but I was not surprised that he won. Pre race I thought that Real Merchant had a chance to be live and long, but I was shocked at how well the foreign raider did here. I liked Barrier Reef's form and success at A, and I think Researcher was just away a bit too long. He'll be back.
Race 9 at Gulfstream Park: The Fountain of Youth Stakes G2, 1 mile for 3 YOs.
I missed on Quality Road. Pre Race when I poured over the PP I noted a few things about the horse: "Hadn't raced since 10 Jan. First time Lasix, Trainer sports 33% win rate in Graded Stakes and J/T don't run alot together, but when they do, they win 40% of the time. 5f in :58 and 2/5 seconds." I didn't like the post position and I didn't like the long layoff. I liked others better, it happens every week.
The number of prep races and chances to bolster earnings are dwindling. Each week, there are heavy hyped horses that seem to stumble when it is their moment to shine. Capt. Candyman Can and Taqarub and This One's for Phil leave me wondering where they fit in. The distance and the trip that these horses took will make me revisit this race several times this week as I try to assign meaning to the chaos. This is the fun part of handicapping, forgiving blame for some efforts and taking credit away from horses that at first blush did well. All that said, I missed on Quality Road. It wasn't that I didn't like him, I just liked others more, so shame on Turk.
Race 9, Santa Anita Park: The Sham Stakes G3, 1 1/8 miles on pro ride for 3 YOs.
The Pamplemousse. He's been wow in his workouts, he's wow physically, and he just toyed with the field in the Sham and made it look way too easy.
Todd Pletcher reminds us he knows a thing about horses. He found a better race for Take the Points and at the same time showed that the colt can run on synthetics just fine. I guess that will be the trifecta of stud values next, getting the G1 on dirt, turf and synth.
As predicted, a Calvary charge left the final results muddled. I swung for the fences on series of straight trifecta bets. If Mark S the Cooler ($22.60) or Hi Flyin Indy ($59.20) make it into the mix, I'm gloating about a big payout. Instead I bet 8 bucks to gain $22.10. Consistency will always rule over the long haul.
And finally I looked at Turfway Park, The John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on synth for 3 YOs.
I'm not done yawning after two Triple Crown pretenders fizzled, one scratched, and one losing to a good, but out classed opponent.
The Turk is looking at three Triple Crown prep races today, at three different tracks. First up is The Stymie Handicap at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 miles on the Inner Track Dirt for 3 YOs
As readers of the Turk know, I'm not advocating a betting strategy with my posts. Instead I am ordering the field based on how I view the most logical outcome. From my ordering of the field I will then look for value on the tote board and create my simple betting stategies which I place small amounts of money on. My arcane sense of excitement is winning regularly while betting little.
My biggest flaw as a handicapper is overlooking the obvious. I overlook track bias often as well as current form. Knowing this, I try to tweek my handicapping each week to compensate.
In the Stymie, it would be easy for me to overlook the current form of Barrier Reef , possibly ignore the lack of current form with Researcher, or overreach on a foreign invader like Real Merchant.
All that said, I am after all looking for value and I'm not interested in placing down two bucks on the chalk to show. I think there are a few horses, Manteca and Judith's Wild Rush in particular that could win at >8-1.
"Order the field and watch the tote" Mrs. Turk tells me I mumble that in my sleep. By the way, that is Stymie (pictured above) when he was at stud. He was the foal daddy of last week's feature, Rare Treat.
In the second race of my day, I'm looking at is at Gulfstream Park, Race 9, The Fountain of Youth Stakes, reimagined at 1 Mile on very fast dirt, for 3 YOs'.
This is a race that personifies what I was rambling about: There are numerous winners in this field, so if you do feel complelled to bet, find value. I am going to slightly discount Notonthesamepage, who has been drilling well but unraced since January 3rd. I generally discount the outside posts at GP somewhat, but i'm looking for Capt. Candyman Can or Taqarub (pictured) from the 7 and 8 hole to play a promienent role in the race. 8 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are here, this will be a barn burner, and with that hard dirt, I would expect a big BSF to come out of this as well.
And the last race for this afternoon, is Race 11 at Turfway Park, the John Battaglia Memorial, 1 1/16 mile on fake dirt for 3 YOs.. For the uninformed, John Battalia is the former general manager of the old Latonia Race Course, which is now known as Turfway Park.
A current betting angle is finding races with horses that I believe have a greater then 75% chance to win or place and filling the boxed ticket in around them. I think that is very possible here, a series of boxed trifectas or supers.
I'll be back in a few hours to look at The Sham at the Great Race Place
The Turk is a slow handicapping machine. I'm in sensory overload on days like today with the Sunshine Millions taking place in Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park. So many races, so many favorite horses running, what to do, where to start?
I'm going to start in Florida because it's in my time zone, and I'm going to handicap Race 8, the Filly and Mare Turf at 1 1/8 miles and Race 10, The Classic, at 1 1/8 on dirt (how novel).
Race 8: The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles, for F&M 4 YO and up, bred in CA or FLA.
I don't have a bet strategy yet, nor do I often share those anyway, as that's not what the Turk is about. I grade em', I put together likely orders of finish, and I make 5 minute to post betting decisions that look to maximize the ROI on my 2 bucks. I'm not a whale, more like a pretty good guppy. I digress.
I think Wild Promises is the class of this race. Without looking at the Morning Line, which Turk shuns, I think that this girl will go off at odds only a bridge jumper would love (or Mama Turk, but again I digress). One of my favorite angles when I do bet is to wait for races with such a money magnet like this and either a. hop the train and hit a low risk, ok reward multi horse bet or b. look for someone to beat the chalk at a big price. Both angles are fun for me, but I like the latter better because most of the time you'll swing for the fences and lose, but every now and then....
I'll be honest I don't see a way to beat Wild Promises yet. I think Zee Zee could. I never hold the poor animals to blame for thier trainers, and while I dislike Mr. Dutrow as a fan, as a dispassionate gambler I'm impressed by the tainer stats. The horse hasn't been a winner, but she's fresh and has worked steady and regular. I like the Albarado/Dutrow combo to perhaps win at >3.5 to 1.
Just a hunch, but Peach Flambe I think will run well and could go off >10-1.
And race 10, The Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up bred in CA or FLA.
I could sing a slightly different tale of handicapper woe to you, but the Turk doesn't sing too well anyhow. I think this race has 5 legitimate horses who could take win or place and 8 of 12 who could argue for show money.
I don't think Delightful Kiss is starting in a good spot, and while I think the gelding is the best horse, I'm going to gamble against him winning. Instead, I'm looking for Atoned or Macho Again as likely winners, although Atoned seems more content to be second best in life. Tagg could have Dry Martini primed for a big race, but I like Hey Byrn as a legitimate longer odds horse and from left field I like Medzendeekron, owner of a 4f :45 and 2/5 and a 7f in 1:24 3/5's to maybe pull a shocker at >12-1. The trainer's turf to dirt is 23% but this horse is very unproven on dirt. I think it's worth a 2 buck flyer.
