The Nominations Are In: January 9, 2010; The Mr. Prospector GIII at GP and The San Pasqual G II at SA

The fantastic Sarah K. Andrew photo to the left is none other then the incredibly classy, incredibly quick Speightstown son, Munnings, the Turk's favorite in today's Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream Park. There have already been a few scratches since I started my handicap, so check for changes and pay attention to see if the weather and the track conditions deteriorate. It will be wet and none to warm.

Race 7 Gulfstream Park Post Time 4:07 ET; The Mr. Prospector Grade III; 6F on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up and Race 8 at Santa Anita Post Time 7:07 ET; The San Pasqual Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on Fake Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



Munnings starts his 4 YO campaign off a layoff since early October. The Pletcher trainee is capable of +110 BSF and is a serious Grade III and II threat, perhaps a Grade I but the jury is out. Velazquez is up. Strong runner on off surfaces.

Custom for Carlos is a 4 YO son of More then Ready. An impressive series of bullets (1/41, 1/20, 1/51, 1/43) and a new jock, J. Leparoux, signal a horse ready to make some noise for Trainer Kenneally. 7 of 8 in the money on fast dirt and lightly raced on less then ideal dirt.

I liked Prince Joshua in the top three but he scratched as I was typing away, as did Gentleman James, two runners in my middle pack of contenders for Show and 4th. I'm still thinking of what I'll do, but whatever it is I won't throw away the base handicap but instead I'll watch the weather and track conditions, looking for bias and runners who prefer the mud.



The Breeders' Cup Champion "Dirt" Miler is pictured to the right, Furthest Land, my chalk, saddled with 121 pounds, in today's San Pasqual Handicapat Santa Anita. Seven wins in his last 14 starts for the gelded son of Smart Strike, ships in from Gulfstream where he has been training sharply from Trainer Maker, a 25% winner with 612 starts in 2009. Go Go Gomez is up.

Neko Bay is a dependable and steady 7 YO runner for Trainer Shirreffs, the Giant Causeway son has strung three straight 100/upper 90 BSF together on the track at SA. Only 13th career start and only 1 win on poly, good enough for Place, Show or 4th on class alone.

There are three runners I'd group together and I don't see much separating them. Bold Chieftain comes in with three straight wins, ine at SA, and a win against Lethal Heat, and 3 wins in 8 starts on poly. Cherokee Artist goes Turf to Synth for Trainer Motion, something he pulls off 18% of the time. Raced strongly at PID over the summer. Nownownow is the 5 YO son of Whywhywhy but has shown erratic form since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth slop in 2007. A nice 1 1/16 Grade II 105 BSF at SA nearly 1 year ago. Idle since March 2009, Trainer Biancone runner is good but very rusty.

So what are we doing? At Gulfstream I plan on watching the first 4 races and see how the track is playing before I settle on my 5th and 7th race handicaps. At Santa Anita I plan on playing my base handicap pretty much the way it currently is. I haven't looked at all at morning lines at Santa Anita, so I'll look for value between my selections and the morning line and then try and find some value on the tote if its there. Theses fields I've picked today I reckon will unfold along bettor wisdom, as i don't see too many surprises waiting.

That's my view, it's just the view of an internet hack, so do your own base handicap, assign your own oddsline to the field, check the weather, the track condition, the scratches, and get it on!

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 26th, 2009: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II at Turfway Park

"...because the house always wins.

Play long enough, the house takes you.

Unless, when that perfect hand comes,
you bet big. Then you take the house."

Daniel Ocean, noted gambler.

The Turk doesn't gloat. The Turk is a horseplayer who knows better then to do anything except cash the tickets quietly and hope to cash another. No promises in this game. The Turk had several people today ask me why I picked the Kentucky Classic Cup to handicap and not some of the more high profile races at Laurel or Belmont. Easy question, because I thought I could win this one.

Turfway Park Race 13: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and Up.



As I said pre-race, there was a stratification between the top 6 and the bottom 3. They could run this race 10 times and I don't think that bottom 3 changes order. It's that kind of conviction that sets up one of my favorite angles "The large field with one heavy chalk and some obvious dogs" angle. Doesn't exactly roll off the tounge but it describes it perfectly, even if it didn't work as I expected.

It was clear to me that the bettors would fawn over Hold Me Back and why not. As a bettor I use the heavy chalk to help me fill one spot in an exotic ticket even though I understand it will reduce the payout. I pointed out that Hold Me Back was a tepid chalk in my book so I boxed him in both the Tri and the Super's. My base handicap was pretty darn accurate with the big difference being the flip flop of Hold Me Back and essentially Furthest Land. The Turk slotted the 2nd place, 3rd place, 5th,
7th, 8th and 9th place finishers in exacting order. You can make some hay like that.

Quality, not quantity. Know when not to bet, and that is much more often then when you should bet. When you see something set up before your eyes, and you been doing it long enough to see the repetitive patterns, bet as big as your budget will allow and never a cent more. I was rewarded today.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 26, 2009; The Kentucky Cup Classic Grade II at Turfway Park and Remembering El Prado and Kona Gold

That fine looking colt is none other then the only winner of the Grade II Lane's End and Kentucky Cup Classic, Hard Spun. Why is it relevant? The Turk's pre race chalk in today's Kentucky Cup Classic is Hold Me Back, the 2009 winner of the Grade II Lane's End.

We could start with the weather in Florence, or the track condition, but don't bother, the polytrack fake stuff is always listed as fast. I do dig the Turfway Park website very much, and I love Kentucky horse racing no matter if their own elected representatives are unprepared to level the playing field and allow race casino's. I digress and I'll surrender this type of dialog to serious media types who don't refer to themselves in the third person.

Turfway Park Race 13, Post Time 6:21 ET; The Kentucky Cup Classic Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on neither turf nor dirt for 3 YOs and up.



It's an interesting field and as I built my handicap it occurred to me that their is a stratification of quality horses here and then some field fillers that should start running 2 seconds earlier. With 10 cent super's available, my goal shifted to building my handicap to identify the layer, slot the horses as best as possible to avoid too many boxed combinations, and then roll the dice. Let's get after it.

Hold Me Back, and the effort he is coming in off of on sloppy dirt at Saratoga cannot be ignored. A Grade II winner at Turfway Park as I previously mentioned, a nice 5f at BEL in 1:00 flat signals current form hasn't regressed. The 3 YO is 4 of 4 in the money on synthetic. Trainer Mott and Jock Leparoux hit at 24% for the year. An iron pipe lock? Nope, but a good 40% chance to win and he'll headline most of the exotic combo's I'll assemble.

After Hold Me Back, I love the parity of the next four runners and I only see subtle shading between them. Dubious Miss has C. Borel up, and that horse/jock combo has been unbeatable. Coming in off a solid 2nd in a Grade II at Arlington at 1 3/16, expect to see the 5 YO gelding come off the pace instead of a run from the far back. 3 Of 4 in the money on Synthetic and owner of the race's best lifetime BSF on synth at 105, should be in the top 4 (I'll say that at least 4 more times).

Sligovitz, a Woodbine invader for trainer Attfield, is 8 of 8 on synthetic tracks and 13 of 17 lifetime in the money. Why is this horse here? Because a smart horseman looking at the conditions book thought he could win. I expect a top four finish.

Wicked Style and Furthest Land are in this repetitive "I think a top four finish" mix. Wicked Style will be more favored by the bettors then me, and it's not that I'm down on the 4 YO son of Macho Uno I just believe handicappers should take a firm opinion even when explaining uncertainty. Lots to like including a :48 sec 4f work this week at KEE. 5 of 6 lifteime in the money on synthetic and 5 of 6 overall in the money in 2009. If his running style holds, he'll strike to just off the leaders early on and his fortunes will be decided by the trip of others as much as his abilities. R. Albarado is up for Trainer Arnold today. Expect a mid 90's BSF and bottom of the top 4 or 5th.

Furthest Land is coming off a long layoff and has Garret Gomez up (It sorta worked on in the Woodbine Mile last week). Trainer Maker has supertrainer stats: 28% routes, 31% synthetics, 27% 61-180 day layoffs, and an ugh with graded stakes at 5% in 19 tries. Big fish, small tanks? Not an insult at all, just an observation. Nice training pattern punctuated with :59 5f efforts

I'm still mulling where Timeless Fashion plays with my handicap today. 6 of 6 on synth, 6 of 6 at TP, a capable ungraded stakes runner who will provide much of the pace and you never know where a horse like this will land when the blanket drops across the wire. Distance could be the issue.

I'd be remiss in not remembering two more fallen stars, El Prado and Kona Gold.

El Prado(Ire) in a John Kaiser photo.



Kona Gold in a James Shambhu photo.



Rest in Peace and your humans will see you at the Rainbow Bridge.

I'd also be remiss in not reminding readers of The Turk that there is some fantastic writing taking place in a build up towards the Breeders' Cup. Members of the Thorougbred Bloggers Alliance have divvied up the various racing divisions to bring the readers individual analysis of each of the Breeders' Cup races. This is an exciting development for the Thorughbred Bloggers Allance, of which the Turk is a proud member of, so if you are passionate about horse racing, and I know you are because you're reading this, check out this link for the TBA Blogs at the NTRA website building towards the Breeders' Cup.